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När krisen kommer : En kvalitativ studie om hur småsparare påverkas av börspsykologiska faktorer i kristider / When the Crisis Comes : A qualitative study about how individual investors are affected by psychological biases during times of crisisBlücher Melin, William, Fajerson, Oscar January 2021 (has links)
Background: The 12th of March 2020 the Stockholm stock market fell close to eleven percent, the biggest decline on the market in modern time, as a result of the Covid-19 virus. Earlier studies have found that many individual investors make ill-considered decisions during sharp price falls which don't benefit their economic interest and that every new financial crisis offers new possibilities to expand the understanding about what underlying factors that are behind the crisis. Studies about psychological shortcomings have earlier been conducted, but not in connection with a stock market crash as a result of a pandemic, which means that there is not much research within the area. Therefore, there is an incentive to investigate which psychological biases individual investors were affected by during the corona crisis. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study how a number of Swedish individual investors acted on the stock market during the corona crisis and if it varies depending on how much capital they manage. Which of the psychological biases herd behaviour, the disposition effect, loss aversion and extrapolation bias the individual investors that were interviewed was affected by and how they reasoned during the sharp stock market decline in March 2020. Method: The thesis has been conducted by a qualitative method to fulfil its purpose. The data collection consists of 10 semi-structured interviews with Swedish individual investors and statistics from the stockbroker Avanza. An abductive approach has been adopted to be able to analyse the studied subject and reach a conclusion. Conclusion: The thesis finds that the actions of the investigated individual investors can be divided into three categories. The ones that sold all their stocks when the stock market declined rapidly, the ones that didn’t do anything and the ones that bought more stocks successively. There is no clear connection between managing more money and getting less affected by psychological biases. Furthermore, the respondents were partly affected by how much earlier experience they had, whereas the ones with less experience were to a greater extent affected by psychological biases.
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台灣證券交易所投資人交易行為與股票報酬關係之研究 / Investor Trading Behavior and Stock Returns in Taiwan Stock Exchange夏清田, Hsia, Ching-Tian Unknown Date (has links)
This paper investigates the investor trading behavior and the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns. First we explore whether individual investors behave as the Disposition Effect stated — hold their losers too long while realize their winners too soon. Second, we apply four sentiment indicators — number of recommended stocks, margin purchase value, net fund redemption and odd-lot trade value — to examine relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns. We would like to see if past returns have anything to do with current sentiment, and if sentiment provides predictive power to future returns.
First of all, from our analysis to over eight hundreds cash accounts trading records in two research periods, January to March and September to December in 2000, we found the Disposition Effect holds in average but not statistically.
Second, the number of recommended stocks, weighted number of recommended stocks, margin purchase value, change in margin purchase value, net fund redemption and odd-lot trade value as proxies of investor sentiment are good at measuring the effect of past 4-week and 26-week returns on sentiment.
Third, the margin purchase value, net fund redemption and odd-lot trade value provide predictive power to future 26-week returns in our study, which also implies there is likely underlying mean-reversion within half year during the research period.
Finally, exploiting the change in margin purchase value as proxy of investor sentiment, we found the past 4-week returns volatility is inversely related with the indicator. That is, investors are scared on facing with high returns volatility.
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錯置效果於台灣股票型共同基金之實證張心怡, CHANG, HSIN-YI Unknown Date (has links)
在效率市場支配財務理論數十年後,市場上發現許多違反傳統訂價理論與理性假設的現象,以心理學為基礎的行為財務學因而掘起,將投資人之主觀行為及心理因素納入決策分析之考量。本研究便是以台灣股票型共同基金為研究對象,探討行為財務學中的錯置效果,了解是否台灣之股票型共同基金存在“急售利得,惜售損失”的現象。 / 本研究首先以Odean模型之概念,計算基金投資之已實現利得比率與已實現損失比率,再用兩者之差形成錯置效果之代理變數:Disposition Spread (DISP),當DISP為正時,表示樣本基金存在錯置效果傾向,偏好實現利得。接著計算基金之Jensen’s Alpha,用以代表基金績效,利用迴歸模型觀察基金績效與錯置效果間之關聯性。最後再進一步透過DISP分成五級,觀察錯置效果是否存在持續性。 / 研究結果發現,台灣的股票型共同基金不存在錯置效果之傾向,不論是整體基金而言,或是分類觀察之,皆不存在錯置效果之傾向。但是總樣本觀察值中,有33%的比例出現正的DISP值,因此無法斷言共同基金完全不受錯置效果之影響。而錯置效果與基金績效間,則是存在顯著的負相關,即錯置效果越明顯者,其績效表現越差。普遍而言,台灣股票型共同基金錯置效果不存在顯著的持續性,每一期的基金DISP在各分級變動機率均約在20%上下。 / For several decades, financial literature was dominated by the idea of efficient market. However, we can find many phenomena which violate traditional pricing model or the hypothesis of rational investors. That’s why behavioral finance arises. Behavioral finance takes investors’ subjective and mental factors into account while talking about their decision making process. Based on behavioral finance, this study examines the disposition effect of Taiwan equity mutual funds. We want to know if Taiwan equity mutual funds appear to realize gains more readily than losses. / This study follows Odean model analyzing disposition effect by first calculating proportion of gains realized (PGR) and proportion of losses realized (PLR) of equity mutual funds. Then form the disposition effect proxy, Disposition Spread (DISP), by measuring the difference between PGR and PLR. While positive DISP existed means that sample funds exhibit a propensity to sell their winning stocks and hold on to their losers. Furthermore, we want to know whether the disposition effect influences the performance of mutual funds. Finally, separating samples in to five groups by DISP, we want to figure out if funds exists consistency in disposition ranking. / On average, mutual funds appear to realize losses more readily than gains. However, about 33% of the sample observations exhibit disposition effect. The disposition effect is negatively related to fund performance. Generally speaking, Taiwan equity mutual funds do not have consistency in disposition ranking.
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Google-generationen : En kvantitativ studie i hur generation Z skiljer sig från äldre generationer ur ett börspsykologiskt perspektiv / The Google GenerationElfstrand, Simon, Persson, Philip January 2022 (has links)
Generation Z har under sin korta tid som investerare på den finansiella marknaden varit med om en säregen börskrasch till följd av coronapandemin 2020. Börskraschen 2020 var unik i förhållande till tidigare börskrascher såsom IT-kraschen 2000 och finanskrisen 2008 eftersom marknaden återhämtade sig och nådde nya rekordnivåer inom ett halvår. Samtidigt stod svenska investerare under de första månaderna av 2022 inför ett nytt ras där den genomsnittliga aktien på Stockholmsbörsen sjunkit med ungefär 36% från dess högsta nivå under perioden 2020–2022 till följd av en hög inflationstakt samt Rysslands invasion av Ukraina. Forskningen kring den yngsta gruppen investerare, generation Z, som saknar erfarenhet av långvariga osäkra marknadsförhållanden är bristfällig och ger därmed upphov till en ny grupp investerare att studera. Studiens syfte är att studera hur riskbenägenhet samvarierar med börspsykologiska bias, kognitiv reflektionsförmåga och erfarenhet från tidigare finansiella kriser samt hur dessa faktorer skiljer sig mellan generation Z och tidigare generationer. Studien finner att generation Z till större del faller för samtliga börspsykologiska bias förutom överreaktion och visar på ett flertal signifikanta skillnader mellan generation Z och äldre generationer. Resultatet visar även att anchoring och konfirmeringsbiassamvarierar signifikant med riskbenägenhet och att den största skillnaden mellan generation Z och äldre generationer kan hänföras till börspsykologiska bias. / Generation Z has during their short time as investors experienced a market crash due to the covid-pandemic in 2020 but also a quick recovery in the same year where the market reached a new all-time high. The market crash in 2020 was unique compared to the crash following the burst of the Dot-com bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008 because of the quick recovery of the stock market that led to new all-time highs. However, during the first months of 2022, Swedish investors were once again experiencing a market crash where the average stock on the Stockholm stock exchange had lost more than 36% of its value since their peak between 2020-2022 due to high inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The youngest group of investors, generation Z, lacks experience from long-lasting uncertainties in the stock market. Research regarding generation Z is insufficient which gives rise to a new group of investors to study. The purpose of the thesis is to study the relationship between risk tolerance and psychological biases, cognitive reflection and experience from previous stock market crashes and how these factors differ between generation Z and older generations. The thesis finds that generation Z is indicated to be more affected by every psychological bias except overreaction and finds several significant differences between generation Z and the older generations. The result also shows that confirmation bias and anchoring have a significant relationship to risk tolerance and that the largest differences between generation Z and older generations are derived from psychological biases.
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Om jag hjälper andra, kan jag hjälpa mig själv? : En kvalitativ studie om finansiella rådgivares privata investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022 / If I can help others, can I help myself? : A qualitative study about financial advisors' private investment decisions and savings during 2022Fagerström, Milla, Kempe, Hanna January 2023 (has links)
Bakgrund: År 2022 kantades av Rysslands invasion av Ukraina, börsnedgång, stigande inflation och styrräntor. Det bidrog till att allt fler sökte hjälp av finansiella rådgivare för att utifrån livssituationen få hjälp med att nå sina sparmål och maximera sin avkastning. I tidigare forskning råder det delade meningar kring om den finansiella rådgivaren faktiskt bidrar till positiva ekonomiska utfall hos kunden. Å andra sidan får den finansiella rådgivaren, åtminstone privat, kunskap till sig via sitt arbete som torde leda till en hög finansiell bildning. Huruvida det faktiskt bidrar till positiva ekonomiska utfall i den finansiella rådgivarens egna investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022 leder således till frågan, om de kan hjälpa andra, kan de även hjälpa sig själva? Syfte: Studien syftar till att skapa en förståelse för hur finansiella rådgivares privata sparande och investeringsbeslut samvarierar med olika faktorer såsom livssituation, psykologiska bias och erfarenheter under 2022. Vidare ämnar studien utforska hur finansiella rådgivare ställer sig till ytterligare utbildning inom beteendeekonomi och huruvida de tror att det kan bidra till bättre finansiellt beslutsfattande. Metod: En kvalitativ metod har använts för att uppfylla studiens syfte. Tio finansiella rådgivare intervjuades genom semistrukturerade djupintervjuer. Slutsats: Studien finner att placering i livscykeln, psykologiska bias samt erfarenhet samvarierar med den finansiella rådgivarens privata investeringsbeslut och sparande under 2022. Placeringen i livscykeln samvarierar främst med riskaversionen, därutöver har de finansiella rådgivarna inte kunnat motstå fall av samtliga undersökta bias i studien. Erfarenheten samvarierar med en minskad benägenhet att falla offer för vissa psykologiska bias, förutom överkonfidens, där effekten snarare är den motsatta. Vidare anser de finansiella rådgivarna att ytterligare utbildning inom beteendeekonomi inte skulle vara värdeskapande för deras privata investeringsbeslut, samtidigt som de anser sig ha behov av det i sitt arbete. / Background: The year 2022 was characterized by the invasion of Ukraine, the downturn of the stock market, rising inflation and increases in the benchmark interest rate. This led to the increasing search for financial advisors who, using life circumstances, could assist the individual in reaching personal saving goals and maximizing returns on investments. In prior research, there are divided opinions about whether financial advisors contribute to positive financial outcomes for the client. The financial advisors, at least privately, gain knowledge through their work which should lead to a high level of financial literacy. Whether it contributes to positive financial outcomes in the financial advisor's own investment decisions and savings in 2022 thus leads to the question, if they can help others, can they also help themselves? Aim: The study aims to create an understanding of how financial advisers' private investments decisions and savings in 2022 have been affected by various factors such as life situation, psychological bias, and experiences. Furthermore, the study intends to explore financial advisers' perception of how further education in behavioral economics could have contributed to better financial decision-making. Method: A qualitative method has been used to fulfill the purpose of the study. Ten financial advisors were interviewed through semi-structured in-depth interviews. Conclusion: The study finds that placement in the life cycle, psychological bias, and experience had an impact on financial advisors’ private investment decisions and savings during 2022. The placement in the lifecycle primarily influences the risk aversion, while the financial advisors have not been able to withstand cases of all investigated biases in the study. Experience has contributed to mitigating the impact of psychological biases to some extent while also creating overconfidence. The financial advisors believe that additional education in behavioral economics would not add value to their private investment decisions, while they consider themselves to need it in their work.
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