Índices de confiança/expectativas são frequentemente utilizados pela mídia e pelo mercado com intuito de projetar o comportamento da economia. As expectativas dos agentes econômicos são peças relevantes, acredita-se, para explicar flutuações de produto e emprego, tanto moderadas como drásticas a exemplo das crises \".com\" e dos subprimes americanos. No Brasil, o tema passou a receber mais atenção devido à crise dos últimos anos.A estimação de um VAR com séries brasileiras de produto, consumo e expectativas sugere que de fato inovações nos índices de expectativas possuirão impactos de médio-longo prazo no consumo agregado e no PIB, além dos próprios índices. A partir dessa evidência, procura-se separar por meio de um modelo DSGE o quanto desses impactos se deve a fundamentos econômicos futuros antecipados pelos agentes e o quanto se deve a alterações momentâneas de humor, isto é, aos animal spirits. Os resultados sugerem que animal spirits e ruídos inerentes aos próprios índices são responsáveis por uma parte considerável da flutuação no período de 1-2 trimestres. Para horizontes iguais ou superiores a 2 trimestres, a antecipação de fundamentos econômicos passa a ser predominante. / Consumer confidence/expectation indexes are frequently used by the media and the market in order to forecast the behavior of the economy. Agents\' expectations are believed to explain output and employment fluctuations, either moderate or drastic as the \".com\" and the american subprime crisis. In Brazil, more attention has been drawn to this topic due to the recent economic crisis.The estimation of a VAR with brazilian data for consumption, output and expectations suggests that innovations to the expectation indexes do have impact on aggregate consumption and GDP in the medium/long-run, as well as the indexes themselves. Inspired by this evidence, a DSGE model is used in order to assess how much of these impacts are due to anticipation of future economic fundamentals and how much are due to animal spirits. The results indicate that animal spirits and index-specific noise are responsible for a non-negligible amount of fluctuations up to 2 quarters, whereas news of future economic conditions prevail on lower frequencies.

(in English) The Sovereign Military Hospitaller Order of Saint John of Jerusalem of Rhodes and of Malta is the oldest and most important knightly order of the Catholic Church. Its origins are connected with the crusades to the Holy Land and it came to the Bohemian territory in the second half of the 12th century. Until the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire it enjoyed an exceptional position, but after the creation of the so-called first Czechoslovak Republic its position was greatly weakened. The new state, primarily a part of its political elites, was not inclined to the Catholic Church, and for a number of contemporaries represented this traditional and aristocratic order a relic of an old monarchy. The difficult political and social position of the order was accompanied by economic difficulties caused, inter alia, by land reform, which had a significant negative effect on the order's land property. The aim of this diploma thesis is to describe the operation of the order at this time with a focus on its economic activities. Key words Order of Malta, Grand Priory of Bohemia, Economic activity, First Czechoslovak Republic, Land reform

[pt] Com o objetivo de contribuir para a criação de um modelo de previsão do lucro das empresas de capital aberto listadas em bolsas de valores, para subseqüente utilização na avaliação de ações para investimentos, explorou-se a relação do nível de atividade econômica do Brasil com o desempenho das empresas. Verificou-se, se o nível de atividade econômica brasileira influencia o desempenho das empresas, tanto globalmente como por setor industrial. As diversas variáveis macroeconômicas com possibilidade de representar o nível de atividade econômica foram exploradas, obtendose PIB como a mais relevante. Modelos variados para previsão dos diversos níveis de desempenho das empresas foram testados. O desempenho das empresas foi averiguado em cinco níveis: Receita Líquida, Lucro Bruto, Lucro Operacional, Lucro Operacional Próprio e Lucro Líquido. Comprovou-se a potencialidade de utilizar esta relação na previsão dos lucros das empresas pela significância estatística dos resultados obtidos. Estudos futuros estão incumbidos de materializar este potencial. / [en] With the goal of contributing to the generation of a corporate earnings predictor model for subsequent utilization in stock investment analysis, this study explores the relationship between the Brazilian economic activity level and performance results for firms registered for trading on stock exchanges. The influence of the Brazilian economic activity level over the corporate performance results was verified globally and for industries. Macroeconomic variables were tested to define which of them was more suitable to represent the country activity economic level. GDP was the most relevant. Diverse models were tested to predict the corporate performance results. Corporate performance results were analyzed in five different levels: Net Sales, Gross Profits, Operating Profits, Own Operating Profits and Net Profits. The potential to utilize this relationship was verified due to the significant statistical results. Future studies have the responsibility to turn into reality this potential.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the structure of the population of the Czech Republic in terms of education and economic activity and then draw out its future development. To this variations of the projection is included the development of economic activity in the population compared to the standard demographic projections. This approach allows better assessment of future development economically active parts of the population by its actual participation in the labor market, and not only by age group, as it is in most demographic projections. This work also includes analysis of sex-education-age structure of the population and analysis the reasons for economic inactivity.

O presente trabalho tem por finalidade investigar os Centros de influência a partir dos assalariados externos, que são os empregados fora da sede da empresa. Eles indicam o poder de atuação da empresa associado a atividade econômica e as unidades locais, sendo controlados na estrutura econômica industrial no Rio Grande do Sul. Através deste conceito e com base nos dados da Pesquisa Industrial Anual de 1998, do IBGE, obtivemos resultados da atuação da Região Metropolitana de Posto Alegre, avaliada pelo número dos assalariados externos das diferentes atividades econômicas, dentro e foca do Estado; e a atuação das industrias nas diferentes regiões sócio-econômicas do Rio Grande do Sul também demonstrado por meio dos assalariados externos nos diferentes gêneros da indústria e no seu relacionamento com aspectos da integração econômica, bem como as diferentes categorias de bens de consumo. Contudo, esía abordagem apresenta uma diferente discussão à diversificação e a especialização dos centros de influência. A identificação dos centros de Influência reflete a questão da divisão territoriaJ do trabalho, as atividades econômicas por meio da atuação da indústria no Rio Grande do Sul, onde consideramos a hipótese de que esta dinâmica se consubstancia em forte relação de poder dos agentes econômicos sobre o espaço. / This paper aims to study Influence Centers through "branch employees" (employees who do not work in the finn's headquarters). They show the firm´s influence in Rio Grande do Sul State economic activity. Based on this concept and using IBGFs 1998 "Pesquisa Industrial Anual" data,, the results highlight the Greater Porto Alegre Region in terms of the number of its branch employees inside and outside Rio Grande do Sul State, in many industries. Also, the role of manufacturing activities (like consumer goods production) in promoting economic integration among regions. This approach points to a different view of diversification and specialization trends in Influence Centers. These centers have an impact in the geographical distribution of employment, in the influence of manufacturing on other economic activities and are evidence of the strong influence of economic agents in geographical space.

The study is an investigation of the sustainability of agriculture in Nigeria using Rubber as case study. Edo and Abia states were sampled for the study with 300 questionnaires administered in 10 communities among rubber farmers. The study is an investigation of the socio-demographic distribution of the rubber farmers, perception of rubber farmers, and influence of government activities. Sources of information and the data were cumulated for Nigeria as a whole. The data were analyzed using statistical analysis. Findings indicated the distribution of rubber farmers on socio-demographic distribution, sources of funds, and the effects on agricultural sustainability in Nigeria. Farmers’ reaction to government activities and recommendations were stated alongside the challenges encountered by the farmers and were analyzed. concluded that provision of funds, basic infrastructural facilities, government increased participation, restructuring laws and policies relating to agriculture and provision of information on improved agricultural technology are needed for agricultural sustainability in Nigeria.

As economic development, the financial analysis of the company's economic activities becomes an integral part of the strategic development of the enterprise. To clarify the situation on financial statements, companies use different methods and indicators to analyze the activity. Thus, to date, the analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise does not analyze the external environment, which may adversely affect the results of the analysis and, accordingly, the planning of the enterprise. Now there are a number of non-traditional methods for analyzing the external environment of an enterprise in conjunction with internal analysis. In the dissertation SWOT and STEEP kinds of analyzes are applied at the analysis of financial and economic activity of the enterprise that gives the chance to see effect from activity of the company in the market and to reveal a direction of development of activity for increase of efficiency. Practical significance is that the results of the study can be used to improve the analysis of the financial situation of a commercial organization. / По мере экономического развития, финансовый анализ хозяйственной деятельности компании становится неотъемлемой составляющей стратегического развития предприятия. Чтобы прояснить ситуацию по финансовой отчетности компании используют различные методы и показатели для анализа деятельности. Таким образом, на сегодняшний день анализ финансово-хозяйственной деятельности предприятия не анализирует внешнюю среду, что может отрицательно сказаться на результатах анализа и, соответственно, на планирование деятельности предприятия. Сейчас существуют ряд нетрадиционных методов анализа внешней среды предприятия в совокупности с внутренним анализом. В диссертации применены SWOT и STEEP виды анализов при анализе финансово-хозяйственной деятельности предприятия, что дает возможность увидеть эффект от деятельности компании на рынке и выявить направление развития деятельности для повышения эффективности. Практическая значимость состоит в том, что результаты проведенного исследования могут быть использованы совершенствование анализа финансового состояние коммерческой организации.

Структура магистерской диссертации включает в себя введение, три главы, заключение, список использованных источников и приложения. Во введении обоснована актуальность темы исследования, поставлена цель и определены задачи, выделен объект и предмет, обозначена научная новизна, представлена методологическая и информационная база, а также раскрыта практическая значимость. В первой главе работы изучаются теоретические основы бизнес-планирования на предприятии, рассматриваются методические основы формирования инвестиционного бизнес-плана, определены проблемы и распространенные ошибки при составлении бизнес-плана. Во второй главе магистерской диссертации представлен анализ хозяйственной деятельности и финансового состояния ООО «Профиль», изучается организационно-экономическая характеристика предприятия, анализ основных показателей хозяйственной деятельности предприятия и дается оценка финансового состояния и финансовой устойчивости объекта исследования. В третьей главе научного исследования разрабатывается бизнес-план инвестиционного проекта на примере ООО «Профиль». В заключении сформированы основные выводы. / The structure of the master's thesis includes an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of sources used and appendices. In the introduction, the relevance of the research topic is substantiated, the goal is set and the tasks are defined, the object and subject are highlighted, the scientific novelty is indicated, the methodological and information base is presented, and the practical significance is disclosed. In the first chapter of the work, the theoretical foundations of business planning at the enterprise are studied, the methodological foundations of the formation of an investment business plan are considered, problems and common mistakes in the preparation of a business plan are identified. The second chapter of the master's thesis presents an analysis of the economic activity and financial condition of LLC "Profile", examines the organizational and economic characteristics of the enterprise, analyzes the main indicators of the economic activity of the enterprise and assesses the financial condition and financial stability of the object of research. In the third chapter of the scientific research, a business plan for an investment project is developed using the example of LLC Profile. In conclusion, the main conclusions are formed.

The foreign economic activity of enterprises producing precious metals, in fact, determines their economic and social development. The company must organize its foreign economic activity in such a way as to ensure maximum income, as well as choose the most optimal solution for maintaining the effectiveness of foreign economic activity. In the first chapter, the conceptual framework and the interpretation of the basic essential categories of foreign economic activity. FEA is a commercial activity of business entities related to their participation in international economic relations. The analysis of foreign economic activity in the second chapter led to the conclusion that, in general, there is a negative downward trend in revenues from the export of goods, while the level of transportation costs increases. Revenue growth can be achieved both by reducing transportation costs and by reducing management costs. So, increasing the efficiency of foreign economic activity of JSC “EZ OCM” can be achieved by introducing outsourcing of all logistics. The paper proposes an algorithm for improving the foreign economic activity of an enterprise, based on a factor analysis of sales profitability, differing by the influence of the external market, which allows to increase the effectiveness of management decisions and foreign economic activity in general. / Внешнеэкономическая деятельность предприятий по производству драгоценных металлов, фактически, определяет их экономическое и социальное развитие. Предприятие должно организовывать свою внешнеэкономическую деятельность таким образом, чтобы обеспечить получение максимального дохода, а так же выбрать наиболее оптимальное решение поддержания эффективности ВЭД. В первой главе рассмотрены понятийные основы и толкование базовых сущностных категорий внешнеэкономической деятельности. ВЭД – это деятельность, связанная с их участием в международных экономических отношениях. Анализ внешнеэкономической деятельности во второй главе позволил сделать вывод о том, что в целом наблюдается отрицательная тенденция снижения доходов от экспорта товаров, при этом возрастает уровень транспортных расходов. Рост выручки может быть обеспечен как за счет снижения затрат на транспортировку, так и за счет снижения управленческих затрат. Итак, повышение эффективности внешнеэкономической деятельности АО «ЕЗ ОЦМ» может быть достигнуто введением аутсорсинга всей логистики. В работе предложен алгоритм совершенствования внешнеэкономической деятельности предприятия, базирующийся на факторном анализе рентабельности продаж, отличающийся учетом влияния внешнего рынка, позволяющий повысить эффективность принимаемых управленческих решений и внешнеэкономической деятельности в целом.

Os combustíveis fósseis, dentre eles o petróleo, são e continuarão sendo durante mais algumas décadas a principal fonte energética para a produção industrial, transporte, petroquímica e mesmo para o uso doméstico. Dentre suas características principais podemos citar o fato do petróleo ser um recurso natural exaurível, além de apresentar uma distribuição geológica bastante desigual, gerando diversos conflitos geopolíticos. Sua exploração sustenta-se em uma estrutura de mercado imperfeita, onde diversos players manipulam seus preços, objetivando maiores lucros, sem se preocupar com um desenvolvimento sustentável. Dada à importância do petróleo, se observa que sua precificação tem diversos impactos na atividade econômica. Busca-se nesse trabalho entender as relações existentes entre a indústria petrolífera e a dinâmica capitalista, especificadamente os impactos do preço internacional do petróleo na atividade econômica, nacional e internacional. / The fossil fuels, among them the petroleum, are and will remain during some decades more the main energy source for the industrial production, transport, petroquimic sector and even for the domestic use. Among your main characteristics we can mention the fact that petroleum is exhaustible resources, besides presenting an unequal geological distribution, generating several geopolitics conflicts. Your exploration is sustained in an imperfect market structure, where several players manipulate your prices, aiming at larger profits, without worrying with a maintainable development. Given the importance of petroleum, it is observed that your price has several impacts in the economical activity. In that work, is looked for understand the existent relationships between oil industry and economic dynamics, especially the impacts of the international oil price in Brazilian and world economical activity.