This dissertation studies topics in the areas of international finance. In the first chapter, the Unintended Consequences of Financial Sanctions, I study the economic impact of the U.S. financial sanctions against Russian companies in the aftermath of Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. I show that this sanctions program, which primarily cut off access to international financial markets for sanctioned firms, produced an unintended consequence of strengthening the sanctions targets relative to their unsanctioned peers. Specifically, while the policy successfully halted new international borrowings by sanctioned companies, the spillover impact of the policy resulted in these targets shrinking in size by less than unsanctioned Russian firms. To explain these results, I argue that sanctions led to a reallocation of domestic resources in favor of sanctioned firms. In particular, sanctions precipitated capital crowding out and credit rationing, causing unsanctioned domestic borrowers to suffer more from the policy. The research highlights the limitation of "targeted sanctions" and also sheds light more broadly on the impact of international financial integration and capital flows on firm size dynamics. In the second chapter, Quantitative Analysis of Sanctions Policy, I theoretically and quantitatively analyze the impact of financial sanctions on the target firms and the target economy. I introduce a heterogeneous firm model with segmented capital markets and financial frictions in which sanctions against international borrowers led to capital crowding out and credit rationing among domestic borrowers. I calibrate the model to the 2014 U.S. financial sanctions episode and use the model to estimate the impact of sanctions on firm sizes and macroeconomic variables. I also evaluate policy alternatives and identify factors for policymakers to consider in calibrating future sanctions programs. I conclude by discussing the 2022 sanctions program and inferring broader policy implications. In the third chapter, the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Specialness of U.S. Treasuries, I estimate the causal effect of monetary policy on the specialness of U.S. Treasuries. Quantifying this specialness by the U.S. Treasury Premium, which is the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and that of government bonds of other developed countries measured as the deviation from covered interest parity between government bond yields, I find that monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve increases the specialness of U.S. Treasuries primarily by increasing the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries. I also find that the magnitude of the impact varies across the term structure and across countries, especially after the Global Financial Crisis, and U.S. and foreign monetary policy shocks have asymmetric impacts on the specialness of U.S. Treasuries. These results provide evidence for the unique ability of the Federal Reserve to affect the specialness of U.S. Treasuries by altering the supply of dollar safe assets.

[pt] É consenso na teoria econômica que o aumento dos termos de troca leva a uma apreciação da taxa de câmbio real. No entanto, durante o período recente da pandemia do COVID-19, essa relação parece ter sido interrompida, pois houve um aumento significativo nos preços das commodities, mas as taxas de câmbio reais de vários países não se valorizaram correspondentemente. O objetivo deste trabalho de pesquisa é examinar as razões para esse desvio da correlação estabelecida. Eu estimo vários SVARs para países exportadores de commodities com um esquema recursivo de identificação em blocos e concluo que outros choques estruturais além do de commodities explicaram a depreciação da taxa de câmbio real no período da pandemia. Em 2020, o risco global foi o principal fator responsável pela depreciação da taxa de câmbio, enquanto em 2021 o alto risco-país, especialmente para os países emergentes, e o baixo nível da taxa de juros doméstica aparecem como os principais responsáveis por essa quebra. / [en] It is a consensus in economic theory that the increase in the terms of trade leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. However, during the recent period of the COVID-19 pandemic, this relationship appears to have been disrupted, as there has been a significant rise in commodity prices but the real exchange rates of many countries have not appreciated correspondingly. The aim of this M.Sc. Thesis is to examine the reasons for this deviation from the established correlation. I estimate several SVARs for commodity exporting countries with a recursive block identification scheme and conclude that structural shocks other than the commodity one explained the real exchange rate depreciation in the pandemic period. In 2020, the global risk was the main factor responsible for depreciating the exchange rate, while in 2021 the high country risk, specially for emerging countries, and the low level of the domestic interest rate appear as the main factors responsible for this break.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Payment systems can be defined as a funds transfer system processing third party payments, supervised by a central bank or appropriate Regulatory Authority. (S.W.I.F.T., 1997). Therefore the importance of a well managed system, through regulatory methods, as well as self-regulation by the industry, cannot be over emphasized. According to Humphrey, (1996: 923), the composition of non-cash transactions consists of the following five payment instruments. The paper-based transactions are composed of cheques and paperbased giros payments. The electronic transactions consist of electronic giro, debit card (POS), and credit card payments. According to Vives, (1998: 168) there are normally two goals when a country wants to change its payment system, either it wants to increase efficiency, or it wants to reduce risk. If there is a conflict between risk and efficiency, the less risky solution must prevail. Credit risk and systemic risk poses the greatest challenges to payment systems. Credit risk exists when credit was granted to a participating member, which cannot fulfil its debt at the stage of payment need to be made. Systematic risks encompass situations in which the credit or liquidity problems for one or more market participants create substantial credit or liquidity problems for participants elsewhere in the financial system. (Emmons, 1997: 11). In order to create international standards in addressing the risk issues involved the Bank of International Settlements was established. The Bank's predominant tasks are to promote the co-operation of central banks and to provide additional facilities for international financial operations, and to create and maintain stability of international monetary and financial systems. The Bank of International Settlements published the Lamfallussy report. From the findings of this report a series of policy recommendations regarding netting schemes. The Basle Committee was established by the Central Bank Governors of the Group of Ten countries as a result of serious failures and disturbances in the international currency and banking markets, with the main objective to improve the collaboration between bank supervisors world wide. The objective is met by using three different methods, namely. Exchange information on national supervisory arrangements, improving the effectiveness of techniques for supervising, and the setting of minimum supervisory guidelines and recommendations and recommended statements of best practices, expecting authorities to take steps to implement in their respective countries. To enable secure international payments the Society for Worldwide Inter-bank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) was created, with the mission to provide technology-based communication services across all financial markets through member banks and their market infrastructures so that they can meet their own and their end-customers' needs. There is a growing awareness among central banks of the need to ensure the integrity, the security and the stability of their country's payment system. The central bank's main function was to regulate the country's currency circulation, to facilitate' payment transactions and to pursue a credit and monetary policy serving the interest of the country as a whole. Because of their importance for the smooth operation of commerce of financial markets, central banks often own and/or operate large value payment networks themselves rather than leave this function solely to commercial banks. (Sato et a/., 1995: 37). Commercial banks, or their agents, perform the vast majority of the clearing and processing of payment in developed countries, as well as providing the payment facilities to clients. The United States central bank is the main exception to this division of responsibility as it provides settlement service as well as check processing and over one-half of all Automatic Clearing Houses and wire processing services. (Sato et a/., 1995: 32). The re-entry of South Africa in the global trade in the early 1990s created new opportunities and challenges for the country. With the existing established payment system, South Africa provides a gateway to the Southern African countries. There are a number of fundamental changes in the financial markets, which have an impact on payment and settlement systems. The first important factor is the high speed of technological progress. Secondly, the fundamental change in financial markets concerns the internationalisation of financial flows. From a central bank point of view, these developments, although in principle to be welcomed because of their contribution to the effect of allocation of financial resources, require close attention, as the interrelationships between worldwide financial markets could also give rise to a propagation of risks. (Koning, 1998: 19). South Africa's payments system, as a well-functioning system, compares favourably with the best in the world; this is an essential requirement for participation in the international finance and trading. The challenge the South African banks face is the social responsibility to uplift the community on the one side, and compliance with the international rules and legislation on the other. In accordance to the minimum requirements set by the Lamfallussy report. The Reserve Bank of South Africa enforced strong policies via the Banking Council of South Africa, as well as the different committees and associations dedicated to certain payment systems. The South African Reserve Bank intent to provide an Electronic Communications and Transactions Bill in order to promote and regulate electronic communication and transactions. The Banking Council set certain criteria that will be implemented from the first of January 2002 on the item limits applicable to the certain electronic methods of payment. Councils and associations in the banking sector are established, self-regulatory as well as government controlled, to enforce rules and regulations to reduce the risk involved in the industry and comply with international requirements. A strong legal framework and the enforcement of certain risk prevention methods, for instance the enforcement of item limits and the change in the law on the crossing of cheques prove the commitment to participate internationally. The strong movement to same day settlement, (especially in high value payments via the SAMOS system), show that the payment industry in South Africa is on an ongoing process of implementing new procedures to comply with the international standards. Electronic money can be defined as stored value or prepaid products in which a record of funds or value available to the consumer is stored on a device in the consumer's possession. (Bank of International Settlements, 2001: 1). Consumers benefit from the ability to use payment methods that are inexpensive, convenient, and accessible. (Bank of International Settlements, 1997: 6). The participation in the payment processes by non-financial entities, coupled with the design and widespread use of unknown digital form of monetary value poses serious threats to the central bank's ability to control monetary policy and safeguard financial stability. Card based e-money schemes have been combined with functionality's such as access control, holder identification or local transportation ticketing. Network-based e-money schemes are operational or under trail in a limited number of countries. The existing payment system legislation applies to networkbased schemes. The South African Reserve Bank needs to constantly monitor and analyse the existing and new different methods of payment systems in order to create a low risk, stable, safe and a trade supportive environment for the improvement of its own economy, as well as for the Southern African region. Specific attention needs to be given to the high-value payment systems in order to reduce systemic risk. The prevalent factor is the real time settlement of the SAM OS (South African Multi Option Settlement) system. Finally, regulators need to coordinate actions, through the international and local platforms provides, to implant financial discipline, manage risk and support cross-border and regional trade. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Betaalstelsels kan gedefinieer word as 'n opdragte- of fondsoorplasingstelsel vir die maak van betalings aan 'n derde party, wat gereguleer word deur 'n sentrale bank of regering. (SWIFT, 1997). Die belangrikheid van 'n goedgereguleerde stelsel, deur middel van wetgewing, sowel as selfregulering deur die industrie, kan nie oorbeklemtoon word nie. Humphry (1996: 923) beskryf die samestelling van nie-kontant betaalstelsels as die volgende vyf instrumente. Die papier gebaseerde transaksie wat uit tjeks, papier-gebaseerde "giro' bestaan. Elektroniese transaksies bestaan uit die elektroniese "giro", debiet- en kredietkaarte. Volgens Vives (1998: 168) is daar normaalweg twee doelwitte wanneer verandering aan 'n betaalstelsels aangebring word, naamlik die verbetering in doeltreffendheid, of die vermindering van risiko, waar die laer risiko gewoonlik die voorkeur sal kry. Kredietrisiko en sistemiese risiko hou die grootste uitdagings vir betaalstelsels in. Kredietrisiko ontstaan waar krediet aan 'n deelnemende lid van 'n stelsel verleen word en die ander party nie kan presteer op die tydstip van betaling nie. Sistemiese risko's sluit situasies in waar krediet of likiditeit probleme vir een of meerdere deelnemers vir ander deelnemers groot krediet of likiditeits probleme skep in die finansiële stelsel. (Emmons, 1997: 11). Om risiko's internasionaal aan te spreek is die Bank of International Settlements gestig. Die organisasie het ten doeI om koördinasie tussen die sentrale banke te bevorder en stabiliteit te skep in die internasionale monetêre en finansiële markte. Die Bank of International Settlements het die Lamfallussy verslag opgestel waarin verskeie beleid aanbevelings aangaande verrekeningstelsels gemaak word. Die Basle Committee is gestig deur die hoofde van die Groep van 10 lande se sentrale banke weens die mislukking en ontwrigting van geldeenhede en finansiële markte wêreldwyd, met die doelstelling om samewerking tussen banke wêreldwyd te bevorder. Dit word bereik deur drie metodes naamlik, uitruil van inligting wêreldwyd na adviseurs, verbetering in die verskaffing van advies en die daarstel van riglyne en aanbevelings aangaande die beste praktyke, wat regerings in hul eie lande kan aanwend. Vir die daarstelling van 'n gestandaardiseerde, veilige intenasionale opdragte en betalings stelsel is die Society for Worldwide Inter-bank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) gestig, met die missie om 'n tegnologie gebasseerde opdrag en kommunikasie stelsel daar te stel wat alle markte deur middel van lede lande en hul infrastrukture kliënte kan bedien. Daar is 'n toenemende bewuswording onder sentrale banke om die integriteit en die sekuriteit van hul eie betaalstelsel te verseker. Die hoof funksie van die sentrale bank is die regulering van die land se geldeenheid, om betalings moontlik te maak en die daarstel van krediet- en monetêre beleid vir die steun van die land se belange as geheel. Weens die belangrikheid in die suksesvolle werking van die kommersiële markte, besit sentrale banke groot gedeeltes van die verrekeningstelsels eerder om dit aan kommersiële banke oor te laat. (Sato et aI., 1995: 37). Elke sentrale bank verskaf verskillende verrekeningsdienste afhangende van faktore soos die verskillende regsfaktore, sosiale faktore, politieke faktore, internasionale- en mededingende faktore. Kommersiële banke, of hul agente, is verantwoordelik vir die oorgrootte van verwerkingsaksies in ontwikkelende lande, asook die verskaffing van die betalingsmiddele. Die Verenigde State se sentrale bank is die hoof uitsondering wat self die verrekeningsdienste lewer, die prosessering van tjeks doen, die verrekeningshuise besit en verwerking dienste lewer. (Sato et al., 1995: 32). Suid-Afrika se hertoetrede tot die internasionale finansiële wêreld in die vroeë jare negentig het geleenthede en uitdagings meegebring. Met 'n bestaande gevestigde betaalstelsel word Suid-Afrika beskou as die deur na die Suider- Afrikaanse lande. Verskeie fundamentele veranderinge in die finansiële markte het 'n impak op die betaal- en verrekeningstelsels. Eerstens die spoed van tegnologiese vooruitgang; tweedens die verandering van die finansiële markte in terme van kapitaalvloei. Uit die oogpunt van 'n sentrale bank, verg die toekenning van finansiële hulpbronne, intense aandag, omdat die interverwantskappe van finansiële markte wêreldwyd risiko's verhoog. (Koning, 1998: 19). Suid-Afrika beskik oor 'n goed funksionerende betaalstelsel wat vergelyk kan word met die bestes ter wêreld en is van uiterste belang vir die internasionale deelname in finansiering en handel. Suid-Afrikaanse banke staan voor die uitdaging om aan sy sosiale verantwoordelikhede te voldoen om die gemeeskap op te bou aan die een kant en die vereistes om aan internasionale standaarde te voldoen, soos deur die Lamfallussy veslag voorgeskryf, aan die ander kant. Die Reserwe bank van Suid-Afrika dwing beleid af via die Banking Council of South Africa, asook verskeie kommisies en verenigings wat fokus op die verskeie betaalstelsels. Die Reserwebank van Suid-Afrika beoog om 'n "Electronic Communications and Transaction Bill" teen die einde van 2001 te publiseer vir die regulering van elektroniese kommunikasie en traksaksies. In Wetlike raamwerk en die afdwing van sekere risiko verminderende metodes, byvoorbeeld item limiete, wat gedurende Januarie 2002 in werking gestel word en die wysiging in die kruising van tjeks dui op die drastiese stappe wat aangebring word om internasionaal mededingend te wees, asook by internasionale riglyne in te pas. Daadwerklike pogings om selfde dag verrekeninge in die hoë waardestelsel (SAMOS) te implementeer en te voldoen aan die neergelegde internasionale standaarde. Elektroniese geld word gedefinieer as 'n gememoriseerde waarde of voorafbetaalde produkte waarin rekord van fondse of beskikbare waardes van 'n kliënt gehou word. (Bank of International Settlements, 2001: 1). Verbruikers kry die voordeel van maklik toeganklike en goedkoop betalingsmetodes. (Bank of International Settlements, 1997: 6). Die deelname van nie-finansiële instansies in die betalingsprosesse, daarmee saam die ontwerp en algemene gebruik van onbekende digitale vorms van monetêre waardes hou 'n bedreiging in vir die beheer van die sentrale bank om monetêre beleid af te dwing en finansiële stabiliteit te verseker. Kaartgebaseerde elektroniese geldskema's word in sekere gevalle is die fasiliteit gekombineer met funksionaliteit in die vorm van toegangsbeheer, houer identifikasie, of plaaslike transport kaarte. Netwerk gebaseerde elektroniese geldskema's is slegs in beperkte aantal lande operasioneel of onder ontwikkeling en bestaande wetgewing aangaande betaalstelsels word hoofsaaklik toegepas op die skema's. Daar word voorgestel dat die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank moet op 'n voortdurende basis bestaande en nuwe verskillende betaalstelsels moniteer vir die daarstelling van 'n verlaagde risiko, met 'n stabiele- en veilige omgewing wat steun verleen aan die land se ekonomie, sowel as die omliggende Suider- Afrikaanse lande. Verdere pogings moet aangewend word word om hoë-waarde betaalstelsels (SAMOS) se sistemiese risiko te verminder deur van dieselfde dag vereffening gebruik te maak. Ter afsluiting moet daar met gekoordineerde aksies, wat plaaslik en internasionaal bestaan, aangewend word om finansiële dissipline daar te stel, risko's te bestuur en internasionale handel te bevorder.

This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

Submitted by Elba Lopes (elba.lopes@fecap.br) on 2017-04-04T00:34:55Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Mauro_Camilo_dos_Santos.pdf: 1108982 bytes, checksum: 19fa1d8e28c232198e2db3653e865495 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-04T00:34:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Mauro_Camilo_dos_Santos.pdf: 1108982 bytes, checksum: 19fa1d8e28c232198e2db3653e865495 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-23 / With the enactment of Resolution no 3786/2009, the Central Bank of Brazil, financial institutions began to prepare and publish since December 31, 2010 in addition to the existing standards, the consolidated financial statements according to International Financial Reporting Standards - IFRS. Such procedures have caused a major change in the technical and legal framework due to existing conceptual differences between local standards - BRGAAP and international standards - IFRS. This work aims to verify whether the accounting convergence is altering the degree of conservatism in constitutions of allowance for doubtful accounts in the Consolidated Financial Statements published by financial institutions in Brazil, and whether the characteristics of the financial institutions such as size, profitability, control capital, market segment, listed on stock exchanges and public or private sector could influence the constitution of the provisions. For that were examined in the two accounting standards, the financial statements of forty-three financial conglomerates in the period 2009-2013, which represented 93% of the assets of Sistema Financeiro Nacional (National Financial System) at December 31, 2013. The results revealed differences statistically significant of provisions between the two accounting standards, showing that local standards are more conservative relative to international standards. Showed, too, that although starting from the same operations the institutions obtained different results due to the use of different standards for recognition, measurement and disclosure. On examination of the independent variables was found that there are specific groups of banks with larger discrepancies between the balances of provisions in the two financial statements indicating that the characteristics of financial institutions could influence the constitution of the provisions. / Com a edi????o da Resolu????o no 3786/2009, do Banco Central do Brasil, as Institui????es Finan-ceiras passaram a elaborar e divulgar desde 31 dez 2010 adicionalmente ??s normas vigentes, as Demonstra????es Cont??beis Consolidadas com base nas Normas Internacionais de Relat??rios Financeiros (International Financial Reporting Standards - IFRS). Tais procedimentos t??m provocado uma grande mudan??a no arcabou??o t??cnico e legal em decorr??ncia de diverg??ncias conceituais existentes entre as normas locais - BRGAAP e as normas internacionais - IFRS. Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se a converg??ncia cont??bil est?? alterando o grau de conservadorismo na constitui????o da provis??o para cr??ditos de liquida????o duvidosa nas De-monstra????es Cont??beis Consolidadas publicadas pelas institui????es financeiras, no Brasil, e se as caracter??sticas das institui????es financeiras como porte, rentabilidade, controle de capital, segmento de mercado de atua????o, listadas em bolsas de valores e setor p??blico ou privado poderiam influenciar na constitui????o das PCLD. Para tanto foram examinados, nos dois pa-dr??es de contabilidade, as demonstra????es financeiras de quarenta e tr??s conglomerados finan-ceiros no per??odo de 2009 a 2013, que representavam 93% dos ativos do Sistema Financeiro Nacional, em 31 de dezembro de 2013. Os resultados revelaram diferen??as estatisticamente significantes entre os valores das provis??es dos dois padr??es de contabilidade, evidenciando que as normas locais s??o mais conservadoras em rela????o ??s normas internacionais. Mostraram, tamb??m, que embora partindo das mesmas opera????es as institui????es obtiveram valores diferentes em suas carteiras de cr??dito e nos montantes de PCLD em decorr??ncia da utiliza????o de padr??es diferentes de reconhecimento, mensura????o e divulga????o. No exame das vari??veis independentes constatou-se que existem grupos espec??ficos de bancos com maiores discre-p??ncias entre os saldos de PCLD nas duas demonstra????es indicando que as caracter??sticas das institui????es financeiras poderiam influenciar na constitui????o da PCLD.

Este trabalho buscar explicar como o endividamento externo da economia norte-americana, a partir do início da década de (19)80, atenuou (e atenua ainda hoje) as decorrências macroeconômicas advindas da tendência para a estagnação do produto interno bruto. Segundo o argumento usado aqui, tal tendência para a estagnação origina-se da queda ao longo do tempo da parcela da acumulação produtiva sobre o produto. A tendência é explicada por um crescente diferencial no desempenho das taxas de lucro intersetoriais na economia, no qual as desvantagens para os setores industriais podem ser explicadas por suas mais elevadas razões capital/produto e conseqüentes menores taxas de lucro. Tal é intensificado por (a) pelo comportamento dos preços relativos, os quais conhecem uma queda maior dos preços dos bens industriais face a outros preços na economia; e (b) pelos crescentes déficits comerciais em bens. Particularmente, a tendência ao declínio foi intensificada pelas crises do petróleo (1974-1979) e pela política de juros altos no fim da década de (19)70 e meados de (19)80. O crescimento da financeirização surge assim como a outra face da moeda do movimento de diminuição da acumulação produtiva. Em segundo lugar, além de se tentar abordar as causas das flutuações em tendência decrescente do produto no período, tentou-se demonstrar como, em meio às flutuações do produto, o nível de endividamento correlacionou-se com a economia norte-americana no sentido de funcionar como elemento estabilizador. Dentro disto, buscou-se mostrar como a recuperação das taxas de lucro industriais, a partir do final da década de (19)80, e em meados da de (19)90, não levaram à queda da dívida externa. Isto se deu porque o nível de crescimento do setor industrial não logrou levar a economia a um patamar de crescimento que tornasse possível prescindir da dívida externa. Isto significava que a acumulação produtiva continuava insuficiente como mecanismo que permitisse uma diminuição do endividamento externo, principalmente devido às dificuldades relativas das taxas das de lucro industriais e das perdas no comércio exterior em bens tangíveis, não contornadas completamente pelo crescimento visto no período. Isto mostra que para sustentar os níveis de investimento e consumo, sem auxílio do endividamento externo, um volume muito maior de investimento teria de estar ocorrendo, o que não é possível pela queda relativa das taxas de lucro nos setores produtivos. Argumenta-se, assim, que o endividamento externo atenuou mas não solucionou fundamentalmente a continuidade da queda do investimento produtivo ao longo do tempo, processo que teria conduzido a economia a ainda menores taxas de crescimento na ausência do papel hegemônico do dólar na economia mundial. / This work aims to explain how the external indebtedness of the U.S. economy since the 1980s attenuated and still attenuates the macroeconomic effects originated from the tendency of the gross domestic product to stagnate. This tendency comes from the fall of the productive accumulation in its relation to the national product, explained by the growing disadvantages of the industrial profit rates when compared to the financial ones. These disadvantages can be explained mainly by the bigger capital/product rates in the industrial sectors, lowering its rates of profit. This is intensified by (a) the performance of the relative prices, which shows an ongoing fall in goods prices and a increase in nongoods prices, and (b) by the increasing trade deficits, stressing domestic production. Particularly, these tendencies were intensified by the oil crisis and the high interest rates of the middle 1970s. The growing participation of the financial sectors in the national economy is the other face of this tendency of the productive accumulation to fall. Moreover, this work intended to discuss how the external indebtedness is correlated to the instability of the economy, showing how, during all the period, the external indebtedness worked as a mechanism of stabilization. The work then tried to describe this process of stabilization. After this, the work intended to explain why the absolute rise of the industrial rates of profit, since the middle 1980s, was not able to diminish the rate of the external indebtedness. This occurred because the financial rates of profit expanded still more rapidly, expressing the persistence of the above mentioned different performances between productive and non-productive sectors in the U.S. economy. It explains why the increase in profitability of productive capital during the 1990s continued insufficient to conduct the economy to smaller degrees of external indebtedness. This is the specific conclusion of chapter 9, which tries to demonstrate how a faster process of accumulation of capital did not take to a lesser external debt during the middle 1990s. It occurred because that process of economic growth needed a still more vigorous rate of productive investment to make possible a fall in external indebtedness. Hence, the conclusion that emerges is that only a much more stronger process of productive accumulation would be able to diminish the external indebtedness process - a not easy process, given the poorest domestic performance of industrial sectors in face of the other domestic sectors and in face of the international ones. That is, the external indebtedness attenuated but did not solve the occurrence of a falling rate of productive accumulation. So, this fall of the rate of profit in industrial sectors would have conducted the economy to a still more fragile degree of investment and consumption if there was not the hegemonic role of dollar in the international economy, which permits the above mentioned strategy of external indebtedness.

[pt] Políticas monetárias alternativas realmente funcionam? Depois da crise financeira e, especialmente, a partir de 2010, a Turquia enfrentou uma conjuntura de alta volatilidade nos fluxos de capital internacional e de deterioração na conta corrente. O Banco Cenral da Turquia decidiu, então, inovar sua maneira de executar a política monetária, introduzindo um novo conjunto de instrumentos e focando nos canais de crédito e câmbio. Este trabalho é um estudo de caso comparativo que avalia a eficácia e o impacto da nova estrutura de política da Turquia sobre suas principais variáveis monetárias. Nós aplicamos dois métodos de controle sintético. Nossas estimações sugerem que inflação e taxa de câmbio não foram consideravelmente afetadas. Apesar de um desvio inicial nas direções desejadas, os efeitos de dissiparam no prazo de um ano. Por outro lado, crédito doméstico parece ter entrado em uma trajetória de estabilização. / [en] Do alternative monetary policy frameworks actually work? After the financial crisis and especially in late 2010, Turkey faced a conjecture of high volatility in international capital flows and deteriorating current account. The Central Bank of Turkey decided, then, to innovate the way it executes monetary policy, by introducing a new set of instruments and focusing on credit and exchange rate channels. This paper is a comparative case study that evaluates the effectiveness and impact of Turkey s change in policy framework on its main monetary variables. We apply two different synthetic control methods. Our estimates suggest inflation and exchange rate were not considerably affected. Although there was an initial deviation towards desirable directions, the effects dissipated after one year. On the other hand, domestic credit seem to have presented a stabilization path.

The neo-liberal policies of liberalization and deregulation, as utilized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its dealings with countries of the developing world, tend to facilitate the conditions for financial crisis. This can be traced by examining the economic crises of Mexico in 1982 and 1994/95, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998 and looking at the main causes and triggers of these crises. It is evident that the financial vulnerability that these countries suffered from existed due to, and not in spite of, these policy prescriptions. The IMF continues to present these policies as proven successes - a view that this dissertation contests. Further to this, the policies that the Fund uses are formulated for use in semi-peripheral economies and have little relationship to the actual economic environments of peripheral countries such as those of sub-Saharan Africa or Papua New Guinea. The ideology of free-markets and globalization is seen as unassailable by the IMF. By encouraging countries to remain part of the global financial system through debt rescheduling and open-markets policies, the IMF holds an increasingly fragile economic environment together. This dissertation formulates and tests four hypotheses in relation to Mexico, Asia, Russia and Papua New Guinea and the periphery. These are - (1) If there are periods of 'irrational exuberance' among investors in Third World debt, these are likely to contribute to debt crises. (2) If IMF policies are implemented in the Third World as dictated, then their primary benefits will accrue to the elites in those countries and in the developed world. (3) If Third World countries open their economies to foreign capital, then they are more likely to experience debt crises. (4) If IMF policies are implemented in peripheral countries, then they are even less likely to be successful than in semi-peripheral countries.

In his assessment of the theory development within international market entry mode, Cumberland (2006) outlines the importance of devoting more attention to the research linking the theoretical level and the operational level. Other researchers have shown the performance of a firm is highly affected by its internationalisation process and selecting the right entry mode is one of the most critical managerial decisions. Despite many years of interest from researchers, the entry choice strategy area is still considered a frontier issue. Researchers have suggested that managing risk is one of the major strategic objectives for managers of multinational firms. Furthermore, risk is regarded as a key determinant in relation to entry mode choice. Research has found that the various risk variables should be regarded as an integrated measure in relation to entry mode choice and not single measures. By looking at a single risk variable, the firm might analyse the situation incorrectly, which may lead to an incorrect entry mode. This study investigates the relationship between entry mode choice, perceived risk and risk tolerance for Danish firms entering Central and Eastern Europe by using a probabilistic model. The results indicate risk should be regarded as an integrated measure in relation to entry mode. Despite not all risk variables showing significant correlation with entry mode, some relations were found. The preferred model for predicting entry mode included years of CEE experience, number of competitors, cultural difference, consumer taste and future market potential. In addition, the analysis showed that Danish firms generally are relatively risk averse. Regardless of entry mode, the analysis showed that Danish firms regard CEE as politically stable and do not see a potential risk in government involvement in their activities. Furthermore, Danish firms experience relatively high and increasing competition in CEE, however, they indicate the same methods are available for marketing in CEE as in Denmark.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:32:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Renata de Souza Ferreira Medinaprot.pdf: 1481960 bytes, checksum: 9444f6cc48dc8f36e4df5d39111f6ba2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-31 / The general objective of this study is to identify what factors lead medium-sized multinational companies to adopt IFRS Full or IFRS SME. In order to do so, the Institutional Theory was applied as research basis since it provides theoretical ground for the identification of the reason why companies make such a choice. This work also sought to identify which institutional changing mechanisms, whether coercive, mimetic and/or normative, are present when companies look for legitimacy in the process of adopting norms. The sample presented here comprises eight professionals responsible for decision making in accounting processes working for the referred companies, selected according to an availability criteria. This researched was carried out applying semi-structured interviews, which allow a deeper investigation of the issue. Collected material has been analyzed through Bardin's Technical Analysis of Content (2007). From the results, it was possible to identify that the companies have the IFRS Full as their first choice. It was also found that such decision is bound to the technical skill of the professional in charge, along with the growing perspective for the company within a short term. The professionals working in such companies do not analyze the available accounting choices in both cases, demonstrating that there is no relationship between the choice made and the evaluation of the model that best suits operations and results. Little prioritization/relevance by companies in adopting norms, as well as little interference by third parties and little interference by the mother company were found as inhibiting factors. As for the encouraging factor, the study found that the capacity of the professional in charge responds for the adoption of norms, which takes place as a result of normative and mimetic pressure when companies search for legitimacy. In addition, we submitted the results of this research to the Accounting Council (CRC SP) and the Big Four consulting firm, in order to have them validated and deepened, since those two have been often mentioned by the professionals. Such consulting raise aspects mostly approached by the professionals, i.e. the need for a more effective professional class representation and a support from auditing firms with the board of directors of the companies studied, in order to propel the processes of adopting norms and also to generate a sense of responsibility by the companies in such processes, besides holding the accounting professionals responsible. / O objetivo geral deste trabalho é identificar fatores que direcionam as empresas multinacionais de médio porte à adoção das IFRS Full ou da IFRS SME. Para isso, baseou-se, na Teoria Institucional, a qual fornece subsídios teóricos para identificar o porquê às empresas fazem essa escolha. Buscou identificar, ainda, sob qual mecanismo de mudança institucional as empresas buscam legitimação no processo de adoção das normas internacionais, sejam eles, coercitivo, mimético e/ou normativo. A amostra desta pesquisa foi composta por oito profissionais responsáveis pela tomada de decisão dos processos contábeis dessas empresas, os quais foram selecionados pelo critério de acessibilidade. Para realização desta pesquisa foram efetuadas entrevistas semiestruturadas, as quais permitem maior profundidade na investigação do problema. Os materiais coletados foram analisados utilizando a técnica de análise de conteúdo de Bardin (2007). Por meio dos resultados obtidos, foi possível identificar que as empresas, foco deste estudo, escolhem como first option, a adoção das IFRS Full. Pôde-se perceber que esta decisão está vinculada a capacitação técnica do profissional, paralelamente à perspectiva de crescimento dessas empresas a um período de curto a médio prazo. Verificou-se que os profissionais, que atuam nessas empresas, não efetuam análises das escolhas contábeis disponíveis nos dois modelos, demonstrando não haver relação entre escolha e avaliação do modelo que melhor se adeque as operações e aos resultados. Como fatores inibidores, identificou-se, a baixa priorização/importância à adoção pelas companhias, a baixa interferência de terceiros e a baixa interferência da matriz. Como fator indutor à adoção das normas internacionais, somente foi identificado, à capacitação profissional, a qual, por meio da pressão normativa e mimética, pôde ser percebida a busca pela legitimação. Ainda, buscando validar e aprofundar os resultados dessa pesquisa buscou-se junto ao órgão de classe, CRC SP, e junto as empresas de auditoria Big Four, à avalição dos resultados obtidos, uma vez que foram frequentemente citados pelos profissionais. Para esta avaliação foram apresentados os principais pontos levantados pelos profissionais, como, à necessidade de se ter um órgão de classe mais atuante e a necessidade de apoio das empresas de auditoria junto ao corpo diretivo dessas companhias, a fim de impulsionar o processo de adoção e também gerar responsabilização às empresas nesse processo, além da responsabilização dos profissionais.