Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T18:33:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos A Goncalves Junior.pdf: 339511 bytes, checksum: 6c64752683f2e8ade22f7ad3f541ffd8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-16 / This research work aims to create a tool that can help a credit cooperative in the region of Toledo in the analysis and concession of agricultural credit calculating the probability of completion of the contracts, what permits to predict a possible default, using the logistic regression model - Logit. The theoretical framework used, based on the Theory of Transaction Costs, identifies the default as the result of the incompleteness of contracts and of the asymmetry of information between the parties in a transaction. The goal is that this tool can reduce the asymmetry of information between the borrowers and the credit cooperative, in order to avoid the granting of credit to possible defaulters. To do so, it was collected information about the borrowers from the records of the cooperative from the year 2004 to 2007, aiming to draw a profile of the credit borrower. Later, it was estimated the logistic regression model for 10 different samples to identify the sample that received the greatest number of his between payers and defaulters. It was established that the estimated model was more efficient to identify the payers contracts than defaulters contracts, and even with a not too high percentage average of correct the model can assist the decision-making of the cooperative in granting credit. / Este trabalho de pesquisa objetiva criar uma ferramenta que possa auxiliar uma cooperativa de crédito da região de Toledo na análise e concessão de crédito agrícola calculando a probabilidade de cumprimento dos contratos, o que permite antever os possíveis contratos inadimplentes, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão logística Logit. O referencial teórico utilizado, baseado na Teoria dos Custos de Transação, identifica a inadimplência como sendo resultado da incompletude dos contratos e da assimetria de informações entre as partes envolvidas em uma transação. O objetivo é que essa ferramenta possa reduzir a assimetria de informações entre os tomadores e a cooperativa de crédito, no intuito de evitar a concessão de crédito a possíveis inadimplentes. Para isso, coletou-se junto à cooperativa informações cadastrais dos tomadores, no período de 2004 a 2007, objetivando traçar um perfil do tomador de crédito. Posteriormente estimou-se o modelo de regressão logística para 10 amostras aleatórias diferentes, a fim de identificar a amostra que obtivesse o maior número de acertos entre adimplentes e inadimplentes. Constatou-se que o modelo estimado foi mais eficiente para identificar os contratos adimplentes que os inadimplentes, e que mesmo com um porcentual médio de acerto não muito elevado o modelo pode auxiliar a tomada de decisão da cooperativa na concessão de crédito.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-06-02T15:48:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 veronicadecastrolameira.pdf: 1250198 bytes, checksum: af0c0263e3fc8188a4d53c8627567747 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-02T13:16:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 veronicadecastrolameira.pdf: 1250198 bytes, checksum: af0c0263e3fc8188a4d53c8627567747 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-02T13:16:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 veronicadecastrolameira.pdf: 1250198 bytes, checksum: af0c0263e3fc8188a4d53c8627567747 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-20 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A análise da mobilidade de trabalhadores exerce papel fundamental na tomada de decisões em políticas públicas. O primeiro ensaio aborda a questão da mobilidade de curta e longa distância, e ainda os fatores regionais da atração de trabalhadores entre as microrregiões do Brasil, utilizando modelo binomial negativo. Houve a constatação da preferência dos trabalhadores por destinos com maior atratividade relativa, admissão de trabalhadores frente aos desligados, densidade, proporção de graduados, menor criminalidade e congestionamento. Para o modelo de longa distância os fluxos são orientados para destinos com menor densidade populacional, menor grau de industrialização, menor criminalidade e maior atração relativa. O congestionamento se mostrou irrelevante na mobilidade de longa distância. A distância figura como fator inibidor para a mobilidade, independente dos cortes de distância. O segundo ensaio adota o modelo logit multinível espacial com o objetivo de identificar os condicionantes individuais e regionais da mobilidade de trabalhadores qualificados nas microrregiões brasileiras. Foi possível verificar que a experiência do trabalhador figura como fator inibidor da mobilidade, a expectativa salarial reflete menor propensão à mudança para trabalhadores em geral, e maior probabilidade para qualificados. Algumas variáveis de contexto também se mostram importantes para explicar a mobilidade, como PIB per capita, proporção de trabalhadores com ensino superior completo, taxa de homicídio, veículos por habitantes, grau de industrialização e rede de migrantes. / The analysis of labor mobility plays a fundamental role in decision-making in public policy. The first essay addresses the issue of mobility by long and short distance, and the regional factors of attraction for workers among Brazilian microregions, by means of negative binomial model. There was the realization of the preferred destinations for workers with higher relative attractiveness, employment of workers off against, density, proportion of graduates, less crime and congestion. To model long-distance flows are oriented destinations with lower population density, lower degree of industrialization, less crime and greater relative attractiveness. Congestion proved irrelevant in the long-distance mobility. The distance appears as an inhibiting factor for mobility, regardless of the cuts away. The second essay adopts a spatial multilevel logit model in order to identify the determinants of individual and regional mobility of skilled workers in the Brazilian microregions. The results indicate that the worker seniority figures as inhibitory factor of mobility, and expected wage decrease the propensity of mobility for workers in general, though it increases the propensity of the more skilled ones. The context variables also show important to explain mobility, such as GDP per capita, proportion of workers with higher education, rate of homicide by vehicle inhabitants, degree of industrialization and net migrants.

In the modern industrialized society, a long commuting time is becoming more and more common. However, commuting results in a number of different costs, for example, external costs such as congestion and pollution as well as internal costs such as individual time consumption. On the other hand, increased commuting opportunities offer welfare gains, for example via larger local labor markets. The length of the commute that is acceptable to the workers is determined by the workers' preferences and the compensation opportunities in the labor market. In this thesis the value of travel time or commuting time changes, has been empirically analyzed in four self-contained essays. First, a large set of register data on the Swedish labor market is used to analyze the commuting time changes that follow residential relocations and job relocations. The average commuting time is longer after relocation than before, regardless of the type of relocation. The commuting time change after relocation is found to differ substantially with socio-economic characteristics and these effects also depend on where the distribution of commuting time changes is evaluated. The same data set is used in the second essay to estimate the value of commuting time (VOCT). Here, VOCT is estimated as the trade-off between wage and commuting time, based on the effects wage and commuting time have on the probability of changing jobs. The estimated VOCT is found to be relatively large, in fact about 1.8 times the net wage rate. In the third essay, the VOCT is estimated on a different type of data, namely data from a stated preference survey. Spouses of two-earner households are asked to individually make trade-offs between commuting time and wage. The subjects are making choices both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse's commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. The results show relatively high VOCT compared to other studies. Also, there is a tendency for both spouses to value the commuting time of the wife highest. Finally, the presence of hypothetical bias in a value of time experiment without scheduling constraints is tested. The results show a positive but not significant hypothetical bias. By taking preference certainty into account, positive hypothetical bias is found for the non-certain subjects.

Nombreuses sont les villes françaises à abriter des éléments d’architecture militaire (citadelles, casernes, bastions,murailles, etc.). Bien que les fonctions défensives à l’origine de ces ouvrages soient peu à peu tombées en désuétude,ceux-ci sont ancrés dans les tissus urbains des cités qui les abritent aujourd’hui encore. Ils participent des morphologiesurbaines, des schémas fonctionnels et, plus globalement, de la manière dont la notion de ville est appréhendée.Les villes font dorénavant face à de nouveaux enjeux qui poussent à renouveler les cadres au travers desquelles ellessont traditionnellement approchées. L’étalement urbain, ses conséquences, la nécessité de tendre vers un urbanismerenouvelé et plus durable amènent à porter un nouveau regard sur les fortifications urbaines. Au-delà de son aspectsymbolique, ce type d’architecture est marqué par des caractéristiques spatiales hors-normes (localisation, volumétrie,géométrie) qui engagent à l’analyser au travers des prismes méthodologiques et conceptuels que fournit la géographie.Comment l’héritage des fortifications urbaines peut-il aujourd’hui être mobilisé afin de créer un espace urbain cohérent,tant sur le plan spatial que social ou symbolique et ainsi répondre aux aspiration des villes actuelles ?La première partie de la thèse porte sur les enjeux auxquels les “villes fortes” sont aujourd’hui confrontées (modernisation,croissance étalement urbain, etc.) et la manière dont leurs “ouvrages lourds” sont affectés. La deuxième partiedu travail s’attache à caractériser le phénomène des “villes fortes” en France aujourd’hui par le biais d’approchesdescriptives, empiriques et statistiques qui permettent de formaliser et d’analyser les logiques et les règles qui régissentle devenir des anciens ouvrages défensifs. La dernière partie de la thèse étudie le potentiel d’urbanisation des zones etouvrages militaires et propose de mesurer l’impact de leur transformation en logements dans le cadre d’un scénariode renouvellement urbain compact pour la ville de Besançon. Il s’agit d’évaluer les conséquences de telles mesuressur le schéma fonctionnel des villes et les formes urbaines. L’ensemble de ces travaux montre l’intérêt du recours auxouvrages défensifs dans le cadre d’un urbanisme à la fois renouvelé, mais aussi plus “durable”, en conformité avec lesformes urbaines, les demandes contemporaines et les projets des villes. / A large number of french cities host military historical edifices (citadels, barracks, bastions, defensive walls, etc.). Although their initial defensive functions have been lost over time, these edifices remain deeply rooted in the urban fabric of their host cities. They continue exerting an impact on these cities’ urban morphology and modern-time functions as well as the way in which the concept of city is understood. Cities nowadays face some new challenges,the increasing awareness of urban sprawl and its consequences, coupled with an urge to promote a renewed and sustainable urbanism, invites us to adopt new approaches to study urban fortifications. In addition to their symbolic aspect, fortifications are characterized by their out-of-the-common spatial measure (location, volume and geometry),requiring researchers to use methodologies and geographical concepts for their academic endeavour. Against this background : how can urban fortifications be used to create urban space that is spatially, socially and symbolically coherent with their historical heritage and that also satisfies the functional need of modern cities ?The first part of this doctoral dissertation present modern-day challenges that fortified cities face (modernisation,urban expansion and sprawl, etc.), and the ways in which their “heavy buildings” are affected. The second part sheds light on the relationships between cities and their fortifications, thanks to descriptive, empirical and statistical analyses. The statistical study noticeably builds on a database to examine the rationale and rules underpinning there habilitation of ancient military edifices. The last part of the dissertation proposes an evaluation of the potential of rehabilitating ancient military edifices and spaces for modern urban usage. For this purpose the impact of transforming these fortifications into residential blocks is assessed in a fortified French city (Besançon). This assessment aims at evaluating the consequences of such urban planning measures on urban morphology and functions. Overall, the analysis provided in that doctoral dissertation demonstrates that ancient military buildings have their place in contemporary urban planning. They help to achieve a renewed and sustainable urban design in line with the urban morphology,modern social and functional requirements and the development perspectives in their host cities.

The CEO and CFO are the two key executives of a firm. They work cohesively to ensure the growth of the firm. After the adoption of the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) in 2002, the importance of CFOs has increased due to their personal legal obligation in certifying the accuracy of financial statements. Only a few papers such as Mian (2001), Fee and Hadlock (2004), and Geiger and North (2006) focus on CFOs in the pre-SOX era. However, a vacuum exists in research focusing exclusively on CFOs in the post-SOX era. The purpose of this dissertation is to delve into a comprehensive investigation of the CFOs. More specifically, I answer three questions: a) does the CEO change lead to the CFO change? b) does the CFO appointment type affect the firm’s debt-equity choice? and c) does the CFO appointment affect the firm’s information environment? I use Shumway’s (2001) dynamic hazard model in answering question ‘a’. For question ‘b’, I use instrumental variable (IV) regression under various estimation techniques to control for endogeneity. For part ‘c’, I use the cross sectional difference-in-difference (DND) methodology by pairing treatment firms with control firms chosen by the propensity scores matching (PSM). I find there is about a 70% probability of CFO replacement after the CEO replacement. Both of their replacements are affected by prior year’s poor performance. In addition, as a custodian of the firm’s financial reporting, the CFO is replaced proactively due to a probability of restatement of earnings. I find firms with internal CFO hires issue more equity in the year of appointment than firms with external hires. The promoted CFO significantly improves the firm’s overall governance which helps the firm obtain external financing from equity issue. However, I find that CFO turnover does not significantly affect the firm’s information environment. To ensure that my finding is not due to mixing up of samples of good and distressed firms together, I separated distressed firms and re-ran my models and my finding still holds. This dissertation fills the gap in the literature with regards to CFOs and their post SOX relationship with the firm.

The goal of this study was to develop Multinomial Logit models for the mode choice behavior of immigrants, with key focuses on neighborhood effects and behavioral assimilation. The first aspect shows the relationship between social network ties and immigrants’ chosen mode of transportation, while the second aspect explores the gradual changes toward alternative mode usage with regard to immigrants’ migrating period in the United States (US). Mode choice models were developed for work, shopping, social, recreational, and other trip purposes to evaluate the impacts of various land use patterns, neighborhood typology, socioeconomic-demographic and immigrant related attributes on individuals’ travel behavior. Estimated coefficients of mode choice determinants were compared between each alternative mode (i.e., high-occupancy vehicle, public transit, and non-motorized transport) with single-occupant vehicles. The model results revealed the significant influence of neighborhood and land use variables on the usage of alternative modes among immigrants. Incorporating these indicators into the demand forecasting process will provide a better understanding of the diverse travel patterns for the unique composition of population groups in Florida.

This thesis studies the mixed data types kernel estimation framework for the models of discrete dependent variables, which are known as kernel discrete conditional functions. The conventional parametric multinomial logit MNL model is compared with the mixed data types kernel conditional density estimator in Chapter (2). A new kernel estimator for discrete time single state hazard models is developed in Chapter (3), and named as the discrete time “external kernel hazard” estimator. The discrete time (mixed) proportional hazard estimators are then compared with the discrete time external kernel hazard estimator empirically in Chapter (4). The work in Chapter (2) attempts to estimate a labour force participation decision model using a cross-section data from the UK labour force survey in 2007. The work in Chapter (4) estimates a hazard rate for job-vacancies in weeks, using data from Lancashire Careers Service (LCS) between the period from March 1988 to June 1992. The evidences from the vast literature regarding female labour force participation and the job-market random matching theory are used to examine the empirical results of the estimators. The parametric estimator are tighten by the restrictive assumption regarding the link function of the discrete dependent variable and the dummy variables of the discrete covariates. Adding interaction terms improves the performance of the parametric models but encounters other risks like generating multicollinearity problem, increasing the singularity of the data matrix and complicates the computation of the ML function. On the other hand, the mixed data types kernel estimation framework shows an outstanding performance compared with the conventional parametric estimation methods. The kernel functions that are used for the discrete variables, including the dependent variable, in the mixed data types estimation framework, have substantially improved the performance of the kernel estimators. The kernel framework uses very few assumptions about the functional form of the variables in the model, and relay on the right choice of the kernel functions in the estimator. The outcomes of the kernel conditional density shows that female education level and fertility have high impact on females propensity to work and be in the labour force. The kernel conditional density estimator captures more heterogeneity among the females in the sample than the MNL model due to the restrictive parametric assumptions in the later. The (mixed) proportional hazard framework, on the other hand, missed to capture the effect of the job-market tightness in the job-vacancies hazard rate and produce inconsistent results when the assumptions regarding the distribution of the unobserved heterogeneity are changed. The external kernel hazard estimator overcomes those problems and produce results that consistent with the job market random matching theory. The results in this thesis are useful for nonparametric estimation research in econometrics and in labour economics research.

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como principal objetivo evaluar el impacto de las características de mercado laboral sobre la toma de decisión migratoria interdepartamental en el territorio peruano, considerando como principal característica a los ingresos de índole regional. Por ello, se emplea tres mediciones del indicador de ingresos. El análisis se desarrolla por medio del modelo econométrico Logit binomial para estimar la relación entre las características de mercado laboral y la condición migratoria de los individuos en edad de trabajar. El estudio concluye que, ante la presencia de un mayor nivel de ingresos proveniente del trabajo, en las tres presentaciones, en el territorio de destino este indicador actúa como un factor de atracción poblacional. Mientras que, dicha presencia en el territorio de origen representa un factor de retención poblacional. / The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of the characteristics of the labour market upon the interdepartmental migration decision across the Peruvian territory, considering regional labour income as the main characteristic. Therefore, three measures of the income indicator are used. The analysis is developed through the binomial Logit econometric model to estimate the relationship between the characteristics of the labour market and the migratory status of individuals at working age. The study concludes that, in presence of a higher level of income from work in the destination territory, in the three presentations, this indicator acts as a population attraction factor. On the other hand, that presence in the origin territory took represents a population retention factor. / Trabajo de investigación

The aim of this thesis was to analyse and compare tax morale and its determinants in South Africa and Zimbabwe, as well as in Zimbabwe in different economic environments. The study applied the standard models of tax evasion, game theory, prospect theory, agent-based theory and slippery slope framework to explain the variability in the determinants of tax morale between South Africa and Zimbabwe under different economic and political environments. The study becomes novel in that it provides a comparative analysis of the determinants of the tax morale between Zimbabwe and South Africa under contrasting economic and political time scales. The study also tested a new variable, namely hunger, on how it affects tax morale in Zimbabwe and South Africa. The study was guided by quantitative research which was used to inform the study. Data was collected using questionnaires from the 2010-2014 and 2017-2020 World Values Survey (WVS). For Zimbabwe, Wave 6 and Wave 7 had a sample size of 1500 and 1200 respectively. The Wave 6 survey for South Africa had 3531 participants. Data was analysed using STATA software 2013 Version. The study’s dependent variable, tax morale and independent variables included marital status, age, income level, employment and religion among others, and analysed them using the Ordered Logit Model. The Ordered Logit Model was used to empirically model the effects of the identified variables on tax morale. The study concludes with an understanding of how tax morale and its determinants is crucial for governments in their bid to boost voluntary compliance. Also, different economic milieus for a particular country affect the level of tax morale significantly. Tax morale was established to be high when Zimbabwe was experiencing economic growth due to the introduction of multi-currency, herein called the dollarization period, and the opposite was true for the post-dollarization era. Surprisingly, the study’s results showed that Zimbabweans have a higher tax morale than South Africans, who have better standards of living. In addition, the determinants of tax morale also differ from one economic situation to another and from one country to another. Corruption, which is a menace in both countries under study, has proven to be an important factor that influences tax morale. Results of all the models show that demographic factors have little effect on tax morale. The study introduced an important variable of hunger in its analysis of determinants of tax morale. Though this variable was insignificant for South Africa, the study showed that there is a negative relationship between hunger and tax morale for Zimbabwe in both economic situations. Based on the thesis’s findings, policy makers should consider the eradication of corruption and hunger in order to boost tax morale, which in turn improves tax compliance. Also, policy makers should include improvement in the perception of democracy in the mix of enhancement strategies of tax compliance. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

Heirs' property is generated through the intergenerational transfer of a property to several co-owners when the original owner dies without a will. Such co-owners hold undivided fractional interest in the entire land but lack a clear title. Co-owners face several legal, financial, and technical constraints to manage the forestlands and often seek partition of the land. However, the legal environment and empirical assessment of partition actions on forestlands owned as heirs' property has not been examined. This thesis evaluates statutory laws relevant to forestland partition and the factors instrumental in adjudicating partition lawsuits. The findings reveal that partition lawsuits are primarily adjudicated using common law rather than statutory law. The magnitude of co-owners' fractional interest, the income withheld from forestlands, and the presence of absentee co-owners favor partition claimants. The study results have implications for heirs' property owners, legal entities and personnel, and policymakers.