This dissertation studies the cost of carry relationship and the international dynamics of mispricing, price and volatility in the three Nikkei futures markets - the Osaka Exchange (OSE), the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Previous research does not fully consider the unique characteristics of the triple-listed Nikkei futures contracts, or the price and volatility dynamics in the three Nikkei futures exchanges at the same time. This dissertation makes a significant contribution to the existing literature. In particular, with a comprehensive new 19-year sample period, this dissertation helps deepen the understanding of the Nikkei spot-futures equilibrium and arbitrage behaviour, cross-border information transmission mechanism, and futures market integration. The first topic of the dissertation is to study the cost of carry relationship, mispricing and index arbitrage in the three Nikkei markets. The standard cost of carry model is adjusted for each Nikkei futures contract by allowing for the triple-listing nature and key institutional differences. Based on this, the economic significance of the Nikkei mispricing is explored in the presence of transaction costs. The static behaviour of the mispricing suggests that it is difficult especially for institutional investors to make arbitrage profits in the OSE and SGX, and that index arbitrage in the CME is not strictly risk-free due to the exchange rate effect. Smooth transition models are used to study the dynamic behaviour of the mispricing in the three markets. The results show that mean reversion in mispricing and limits to arbitrage are driven more by transaction costs than by heterogeneous arbitrageurs in the Nikkei markets. The second topic of the dissertation is to investigate the price discovery process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets. With smooth transition error correction models, this dissertation reports the leading role of the futures prices in the pre-crisis period and the leading role of the spot prices in the post-crisis period, in the first-moment information transmission process. Moreover, there is evidence of asymmetric adjustments in the Nikkei prices and volatilities. The cross-border dynamics suggest that the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) act as the main price discovery vehicle, which implies the key functions of the equivalent, offshore markets in futures market globalisation. The third topic of the dissertation is to study the volatility transmission process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets, from the perspectives of the volatility interactions in and across the Nikkei markets and of the dynamic Nikkei market linkages. This dissertation finds bidirectional volatility spillover effects between the Nikkei spot and futures markets, and the information leadership of the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) in the second-moment information transmission process across the border. It further examines the dynamic conditional correlations between the Nikkei markets. The results point to a dramatic integration process with strongly persistent and stable Nikkei market co-movements over time.

預測市場的研究近年來在學界逐漸受到重視，因為它利用價格具有訊息加總的功能，每每創造出良好的預測績效，但一個預測市場的建立在諸多原因下，通常不易吸引大規模的參與者，例如為免觸犯法令規定，以虛擬貨幣代替真錢進行交易，在缺乏真實貨幣的獲利誘因下，很難有效吸引參與者，即便真能以真實貨幣交易，若實驗的議題並非一般大眾感興趣的話題也不易吸引多數人參與，在這種情況下無法避免要面臨市場交易過於淺薄的問題，雖然不少文獻標榜淺薄市場不會影響預測市場的預測精準度，但並不表這是一個可以置之不理的問題。 本文以預測市場預測2006年北高市長選舉為實證基礎，闡明淺薄市場對價格產生的影響，以及這些影響將導致對未來事件的錯誤評價與推論，要避免這種錯誤的評價與推論唯有設法消除淺薄市場引發的干擾，因此我們提出了五種可以消除這些干擾的方法並從中選擇一較佳者。如同一般文獻的讚揚，我們再次從預測市場獲得精確的預測效果，同時證明所謂淺薄市場不影響預測市場的預測精準度前提乃在消除淺薄市場對價格產生的干擾之後才能還原這個真相。

本研究探討台灣上市櫃公司發行可轉債及現金增資的決策議題。從發行公司的角度來看，利用錯誤評價及成長機會，同時輔以一些公司特徵變數以了解發行動機。後續並追蹤發行公司發行後資金運用情形，以了解發行公司發行動機及目的是否一致。另一方面，從投資人角度來看，觀察可轉債及現金增資公司宣告效果，並由後續資金配置驗證宣告效果之可靠性。 本研究採用Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson and Viswanathan(2005)提出的方法，將市值帳面比(M/B)拆解成錯誤評價與成長機會。以2001年至2011年台灣上市上櫃公司發行可轉債或現金增資為研究對象，發現無論是可轉債或現金增資，發行公司發行前錯誤評價及成長機會皆顯著較未發行公司高。接著，利用logit模型，發現可轉債發行公司之成長機會及代理問題為其主要發行動機，而現金增資公司則利用資訊不對稱擇時與調整資本結構為發行考量。本文進一步檢視發行後資金配置情況，發現成長機會越高之可轉債，後續資金用途顯著投資於資本支出與研發費用上，符合實質投資理論之觀點。另一方面，錯誤評價越高之現金增資，在前兩年有累積現金之現象，但不用於償還長期負債，且顯著運用於資本支出與研發費用上，僅部分符合行為理論之解釋。因此，本研究歸納現金增資公司發行動機除擇時外，亦有投資需求。最後，在宣告效果上，可轉債與現金增資均呈現負向宣告效果，且投資人給予現金增資較為負向的宣告效果，本文認為此乃投資人意識到公司利用資訊不對稱擇時，且後續資金配置不完全符合行為理論的預期造成的結果。 / This study examines the issuance of convertible bonds (CBs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) for listed companies in TSE and OTC market in Taiwan. From the aspects of issuers, we use mispricing and growth opportunities along with other firm characteristics to understand the motivation of the issuance. We also track the use of post-issue proceeds and relate to the motivations of issuers. From the aspects of investors, we look at the announcement effects to examine appropriateness. We decompose market-to-book ratios into mispricing and growth option components through a methodology proposed by Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson and Viswanathan (2005). By using the samples of CB and SEO issuance between 2001 and 2011, we find that issuing firms of both types are overvalued and have greater growth opportunities relative to non-issuers. Next, we find that CB issuers show greater pre-issue growth opportunities and agency problems, while SEO issuers have greater pre-issue mispricing and tend to adjust capital structure implied by logit model. Furthermore, we examine the post-issue use of proceeds. For CB, firms with greater growth opportunities invest more in capital expenditures and R&D, consistent with real investment explanations. On the other hand, for SEO, firms with greater mispricing stockpile cash in the first two years but don’t pay down long-term debt. They also invest in capital expenditures and R&D. Thus, we conclude that the motivation of SEO firms might be timing and investment needs, partly consistent with behavioral explanations. Finally, the announcement effect of SEO is more negative than CB. Judging from the evidence above, it seems that investors know something.

Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:34:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:45:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:59:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-03T17:06:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100279.pdf: 529950 bytes, checksum: 7ee7cb402cee43a4f529ced2c506f67d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-02 / Este estudo investiga a eficiência de precificação do Ibovespa à vista e futuro. Usando o modelo de custo de carregamento, compara-se o futuro observado com o justo no período de 04/01/2010 a 18/08/2010. Em um mercado eficiente, esses dois preços não podem divergir, pois eventuais diferenças geram oportunidades de arbitragem. O propósito desta dissertação é investigar duas questões: a primeira, se o modelo de custo de carregamento explica a dinâmica de preços observada; a segunda, se existem possibilidades de arbitragem entre os mercados à vista e futuro. A base de dados é composta de dados intradiários de compra e venda do Ibovespa à vista e futuro, calculados em intervalos de um minuto. Verifica-se que o modelo de custo de carregamento não explica o comportamento do mercado e que maiores discrepâncias de preços ocorrem longe do vencimento. Considerando-se custos de transação e prêmio de risco, existem inúmeras possibilidades de arbitragem no mercado, principalmente na operação que o mercado denomina como 'reversão'. / This study investigates the price efficiency of the spot and futures Ibovespa index. Using the cost of carry model, the “fair” price is compared to the actual price from 04/01/2010 to 18/08/2010. In an efficient market those prices cannot be different because they would lead to arbitrage opportunities. The purpose of this work is to answer two questions: first, if the cost of carry model can explain the market dynamics; second, if there are arbitrage opportunities between spot and future markets. The data set contains intraday bid and ask quotes for the Ibovespa spot and futures calculated every one minute. The findings suggest that the cost of carry model does not explain the market dynamics and that most of the arbitrage opportunities occur far from the maturity of the contract. Considering transaction costs and risk premium, there are many arbitrage opportunities, especially in an operation called “reversion”.

博士（商学） / 乙第440号 / 113p / Hitotsubashi University(一橋大学)

可轉換公司債兼具了選擇權以及債券的性質，價值又會受到股價之影響，以傳統的方法定價十分不易。由於蒙地卡羅模擬能解決定價問題上狀態變數或許為多維度及路徑相依的問題，Kind 與Wilde 在2004 年提出以蒙地卡羅模擬對可轉債定價，且以最小平方迴歸法估計繼續持有價值，並在僅考慮轉換及還本兩種選擇權及沒有違約風險之下，以數值範例呈現單一迴歸模式無法適當估計繼續持有價值。然而，他們並未進行實證。本研究乃以民國99 年台灣發行的可轉債為研究對象，除考慮發行時的合約條件外，另加上信用評等的考量以將違約機率透過現金流量套入定價過程中，並分別以兩段迴歸及單一迴歸估計繼續持有價值以結合蒙地卡羅模擬，實證結果顯示就可轉債之起始定價的偏差比而言，兩段迴歸得到的結果優於單一迴歸。惟在兩段迴歸之下，超過八成的可轉債其模擬價格依然高於市場價格。實證結果也顯示價性(moneyness)及擔保狀況與定價的偏差有關。 / Convertible bonds (CBs) possess features of both bonds and options, and their prices are affected by the underlying stocks, which make the pricing problem an uneasy task for traditional methods. Since Monte Carlo simulation can handle the problems of path-dependence and multivariate dimensions faced by pricing, Kind and Wilde (2004) suggested to price CBs via least-squares Monte Carlo simulations (LSM), which estimate the continuation values by least squares regression. They also demonstrated that a single regression line could not appropriately estimate the continuation value even only conversion and redemption were allowed and the CB was free of default. So the idea of piecewise regression was recommended to improve the estimation process. However, they didn’t apply piecewise regression to real data. Therefore, piecewise regression together with Monte Carlo simulation were employed to investigate the pricing issue of Taiwan’s CBs. CBs issued on 2010 were selected, besides reviewing the contents of CB’s contracts, default risks based on credit ratings were taken into account to evaluate the discounted cash flows in the pricing procedure. Comparing the estimated model prices of LSM with initial selling prices, the mispricing rates of single regression model and piecewise regression model were obtained for further analysis. Result shows that the modified piecewise regression method performs better in mispricing rate. However, similar to previous findings, 80% of the estimated model prices based on piecewise regressions are still higher than market prices. It also shows that moneyness and guaranteed condition will relate to mispricing rate.