Asian efforts towards bond market development are driven by the 1997-98 financial crises; Central and Eastern European efforts by the transition towards EMU. The small size of most of the economies underlying these still "emerging" bond markets poses the question of minimum efficient scale and which options to pursue. We argue that the joint bond funds and regional bond market linkups that follow existing trade, FDI and bank ties will broaden the sources of finance, can improve market discipline, provide signals to the market, and thus increase financial stability. Based upon bond market data and analysis of regional efforts like the Asian Bond Funds, we argue that bond market development should be given more attention to foster growth and stability. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

In the 2003 Treaty of Accession, the signatories agreed that all New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, would adopt the euro, even if no timetable was provided. Why have some NMS not been able to join the euro area even if they made serious attempts at the outset? What are the circumstances and policies in these countries that have led them not yet to adopt the euro? Has it been lack of political will on the part of the government, a strong voice in the opposition, a euroskeptic president, insufficient administrative capacity, or lack of policy learning? Though there is no consensus among economists as to whether or not adopting the euro in the short run is a good idea, an economic cost-benefit analysis would suggest that in the long run euro adoption is positive for NMS. Yet, macroeconomic analyses cannot explain the change in government policies that may lead to euro adoption. Political scientists have typically focused on collective identity, policy learning, ideas and knowledge transfer among central bankers and other political elites, as well as adjustment to global pressures and Europeanization. This political science literature is unable to provide a satisfactory explanation as to why the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland have not adopted the euro yet. I argue that the role of domestic politics is key to explaining the process of euro adoption in Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland: government policies, elections, electoral cycles as well as constitutional rules, veto points, central banks, public opinion and the media turn out to be crucial in explaining the lagging euro adoption process in these countries. / Graduate

Thesis (doctoral) - Freie Universität, Berlin, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 189-203).

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Cette thèse analyse la convergence au sein d’une union monétaire par l’intermédiaire de la dynamique des prix et des taux de change d’équilibre. Dans le premier chapitre nous présentons les caractéristiques générales des zones monétaires, ainsi que l’historique de celles que nous étudions : l’UEM et la zone CFA. Le deuxième chapitre traite de la convergence des prix au sein de la zone euro par le biais de modèles à transition lisse. La convergence est non-linéaire, et les vitesses d’ajustements sont différentes selon les pays. Ceci s’explique par les différences dans l’évolution de la compétitivité-prix, les rigidités du marché du travail, mais aussi les schémas de spécialisation. Le troisième chapitre évalue la validité de la Parité des Pouvoirs d’Achat absolue au sein de l’UEM à travers des tests de racine unitaire et de cointégration en panel de deuxième et de troisième générations. Dans l’ensemble, la dynamique des prix apparaît hétérogène et dépendante des périodes d’évolution de l’UEM ainsi que des groupes de pays considérés. Le quatrième chapitre relie les déséquilibres externes à la crise de la dette souveraine que connait l’UEM depuis 2009. Nous montrons que lorsqu’un pays appartenant à une union monétaire fait face à un déséquilibre externe vis-à-vis d’un autre pays membre, l’écart de taux d’intérêts correspondant tend à s’accroître. De plus, lorsque ces déséquilibres persistent, ils peuvent déclencher une crise de la balance des paiements. Enfin le dernier chapitre s’intéresse à la pérennité de la zone CFA. En comparant cette dernière à un échantillon composé d’autres pays d’Afrique Subsaharienne, nous mettons en évidence que malgré son non-respect des critères d’optimalité, la zone CFA a favorisé les équilibres internes et externes, et facilité les ajustements aussi bien au niveau de l’ensemble de la zone, qu’au niveau individuel. Ceci laisse penser que cette union est soutenable. / This thesis analyses the convergence among a monetary union through the price dynamics and the equilibrium exchange rates. In the first chapter we introduce the main characteristics of the monetary areas, as well as the history of those under study: the EMU and the CFA franc zone. The second chapter deals with the price convergence inside the Eurozone via smooth transition regressions. This process is non-linear, and adjustment speeds are dissimilar depending on the countries. It is explained by the differences in the evolution of price competitiveness, labor market rigidities, but also specialization patterns. The third chapter investigates the validity of the absolute Purchasing Power Parity within EMU thanks to second and third generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. On the whole, price dynamics seems to be heterogeneous and depends on the EMU period and group countries considered. The fourth chapter links external disequilibria to the sovereign debt crisis experienced by EMU since 2009. We exhibit that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces an external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the interest rates spread tends to increase. Moreover, when these disequilibria are persistent, they may trigger a balance of payments crisis. Finally, the last chapter pays attention to the permanence of CFA franc zone. By comparing the latter to a sample of other Sub-Saharan African countries, we evidence that the CFA franc zone has fostered external and internal balances, facilitated adjustments in the zone as a whole, as well as in each of its member, even if it does not fulfill the optimality criteria. This suggests that the union is sustainable.

This paper summarizes the main Optimum Currency Area Theories (AMO), in order to use this branch of regional integration, to verify the configuration, in a cluster scenario, the euro area member countries during the period 2002-2013, from the perspective of macroeconomic imbalances factors, evidenced by the euro crisis, recent. Therefore, making use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis, and, factor analysis and cluster analysis were allowed to result in that during the period before the outbreak of the euro crisis had agreater concentration of countries in the first group, composed of countries more mature and more competitive economy. However, during the most turbulent crisis years, there is a greater amount of the groups formed by making the first less concentrated and dispersed in the composition of the other group. Only in the last two years of observation, 2012 and 2013, we find again a concentration of member countries in a group, then it is observed that in the years most critical crisis, show up macroeconomic disparities in the euro zone countries. Thus, the research contributes in order to verify, by means of multivariate analysis every year, over a period of time, and contrast with the reality that reaches the monetary union in Europe, to confirm that the disparities that existed before the outbreak of the crisis, and continue to exist between the members of the currency area. Confirming that the convergence criteria has not stopped economic disparities were reduced. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho faz um resumo das principais Teorias de Área Monetária Ótima (AMO), de modo a utilizar este ramo de integração regional, para verificar a configuração, em um panorama de agrupamento, dos países-membros da área do euro, durante o período de 2002 a 2013, pela ótica de fatores de desequilíbrios macroeconômicos, evidenciado pela crise do euro, recente. Logo, fazendo uso de metodologias estatísticas de análise multivariada, mais precisamente, análise fatorial e análise de agrupamento, permitiu-se resultar em que durante o período anterior à eclosão da crise do euro havia uma maior concentração de países no primeiro grupo, composto por países de economia mais madura e mais competitiva. Entretanto, durante os anos mais turbulentos de crise, observa-se uma maior quantidade de grupos formados, tornando o primeiro grupo menos concentrado e disperso na composição dos demais. Apenas nos dois últimos anos observados, 2012 e 2013, verifica-se novamente uma concentração de países-membros em um grupo, logo se observa que nos anos mais críticos de crise, evidenciam-se as disparidades macroeconômicas dos países da zona do euro. Assim, a pesquisa contribui no sentido de verificar, por meio de análise ultivariada ano a ano, ao longo de um período de tempo, e contrastar com a realidade que atinge a união monetária na Europa, ao confirmar que as disparidades, que já existiam antes da eclosão da crise, e continuam a existir entre os integrantes da área monetária. Confirmando que os critérios de convergência não impediu que as disparidades econômicas fossem diminuídas.

Afin de répondre au questionnement général de cette thèse qui traite de la viabilité de l'union monétaire européenne, ce travail est divisé en trois parties. Dans la première, nous analysons notre objet d'étude à un niveau méta. Nous montrons ainsi que l'architecture institutionnelle de la zone euro est axée sur la stabilité monétaire sans proposer formellement des mécanismes d'ajustement aux chocs. La deuxième partie s'intéresse à la question de la synchronisation des économies européennes par l'intermédiaire de deux essais. Nous montrons que d'importantes hétérogénéités demeurent. La troisième partie analyse des questions relatives à la transmission de la politique monétaire. Cela se réalise avec deux essais qui montrent d'une part que la transmission de la politique monétaire dans la zone euro a été fortement perturbée par la crise des subprimes et, d'autre part, que l'influence de la BCE sur les actions des marchés européens est faible. Cette thèse insiste par conséquent sur le caractère incomplet du processus d'intégration économique et monétaire européen et sur sa nécessaire réforme. / The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the problematic of the viability of the European monetary union. This work is divided in three parts. In the first one, we analyse our object of research in order to precise several research axes to study in priority. We show that the European monetary union in mainly focused on the monetary stability without any formal adjustments mechanisms. The second part is focused on the question of the European members' economies synchronisation. We show that large heterogeneities remain. Two essays on the monetary policy pass-through compose the third part. We demonstrate that the interest rate pass-through was affected by the subprimes crisis and that the ECB's influence over the European stock markets is weak. This thesis insists on the fact that the European monetary and economic process of integration is incomplete and should be reinforced.

Diploma thesis, European Monetary Union, its Development and the Future, deals with the reasons, which ultimately led to the foundation of the later European Union and afterwards the European Monetary Union. The journey, which leads up to the present where we are now, lasted for several decades. The experience with the two World Wars on the European territory was the sufficient reason why the European countries embarked on this common journey. In the first part this thesis offers the insight into the past. In short, the most important historical milestones on this road, leading towards the European, respectively the European Monetary Union, are suggested here. The second part of this thesis focuses on current problems of the European Monetary Union. The individual European macroeconomic indicators are compared with the results obtained overseas, particularly in the U.S.A. and Japan. Ultimately, it appears that the EU in comparison especially with the U.S.A. is lagging behind in some indicators. Another part of the thesis is dedicated to the optimum currency area. Is therefore the European Monetary Union the optimum currency area? A few indicators give again the answer to this question. The resulting values of the indicators show that the European Monetary Union is not the optimum currency area today. The reasons can be found particularly in the political than the economic area. Therefore, there is lots of work waiting for the European politicians, officials, but also ordinary citizens, and it will be only up to them, which way the European Union sets out.

L’utilisation de modèles DSGE, construits à partir de comportements micro-fondés des agents économiques, s'est progressivement imposée aux institutions pour l'analyse macroéconomique du cycle d'affaires et l'évaluation de politiques, grâce à leur cohérence interne. La crise financière récente et la préoccupation que représente la persistance du chômage à un niveau élevé plaident en faveur de modèles qui tiennent compte des ajustements imparfaits de l'offre et de la demande sur les marchés du crédit et du travail. Pourtant, des modèles relativement rudimentaires dans leur représentation de ces marchés, comme celui de Smets et Wouters (2003-2007), reproduisent aussi bien les données que des modèles économétriques usuels. On peut donc légitimement s'interroger sur l'intérêt de prendre en compte ces frictions dans la spécification des modèles théoriques destinés à l'analyse économique opérationnelle. Dans cette thèse, je réponds à cette question en montrant que l'inclusion de mécanismes microfondés, spécifiques aux marchés du crédit et du travail peut modifier très significativement les conclusions obtenues à partir d'un modèle DSGE estimé, tant d'un point de vue positif que normatif. Pour cela, je construis un modèle à deux pays de la France et du reste de la zone euro, avec un reste du monde exogène, et l'estime avec et sans ces deux frictions, en utilisant une approche hayésienne. Par rapport aux modèles existant dans la littérature, je propose deux améliorations à la spécification du marché du travail. Premièrement, suivant Pissarides (2009), le salaire réel moyen est rendu rigide en supposant que seuls les nouveaux employés renégocient leur rémunération. Deuxièmement, le taux de participation sur le marché du travail est rendu endogène et le chômage involontaire, dans le sens où le bien-être des chômeurs est inférieur à celui des employés. L'inclusion de ce dernier mécanisme dans le modèle estimé fera cependant I'objet de travaux futurs.Afin de mettre en évidence les effets des frictions sur les marches du crédit et du travail, je soumets les quatre versions estimées du modèle à plusieurs exercices: une analyse en contributions des chocs structurels pendant la crise. L'évaluation de différentes règles de politique monétaire, la simulation contrefactuelle de la crise sous l'hypothèse d'un régime de change flexible entre la France et le reste de la zone euro et, enfin. la simulation de variante de TVA sociale. / Thanks to their internal consistency. DSGE models, built on microecoc behavor, have become prevalenl for business cycle and policy analysis in institutions. The recent crisis and governments' concern about persistent unemployment advocate for mechanism, capturing imperfect adjustments in credit and labor markets. However, popular models such as the one of Smets and Wouters (2003-2007), although unsophisticated in their representation of these markets, are able to replicate the data as well as usual econometric tools. It is thus necessary to question the benefits of including these frictions in theoretical models for operational use.ln this thesis, I address this issue and show that microfounded mechanisms specifiç to labor and credit markets can significantly alter the conclusions based on the use of an estimated DSGE model, fom both a positive and a normative perspective.For this purpose, I build a two-country model of France and the rest of the euro area with exogenous rest of the world variables, and estimate it with and without these two frictions using Bayesian techniques. By contrast with existing models, I propose two improvements of the representation of labor markets. First, following Pissarides (2009), only wages in new jobs are negotiated by firms and workers, engendering stickiness in the average real wage. Second, I develop a set of assumptions to make labor market participation endogenous and unemployment involuntary in the sense that the unemployed workers are worse-off that the employed ones. Yet, including this setup in the estimated model is left for future research.Using the four estimated versions of the model, I undertake a number of analyses to highlight the role of financial and labor market frictions : an historical shock decomposition of fluctuations during the crisis, the evaluation of several monetary policy rules, a counterfactual simulation of the crisis under the assumption of a flexible exchange rate regime between France and the rest of the euro area and, lastly, the simulation of social VAT scenarios.

Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.