The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the convergence process of the Czech Republic. The thesis describes the historical background of the Treaty on European Union and the criteria for adopting the euro are described in detail. The convergence process of the Czech Republic is viewed from the perspective of a nominal convergence (inflation rates, government finance, exchange rates, long-term interest rates) as well as a real convergence (measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity). Further, the attention is paid to the institutional framework of fiscal policy of the Czech Republic. Indicators of economic harmonization are also analyzed, such as the business cycle, interest rates, exchange rates and stock indices. The comparative method is used to evaluate -- development indicators are compared over time and with countries in a similar position with the Czech Republic.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第19950号 / 経博第537号 / 新制||経||278(附属図書館) / 33046 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇仁 宏幸, 准教授 矢野 剛, 准教授 COLPAN Meziyet Asli / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

Ziel des Artikels ist, die Entwicklung der Eurokrise im Spannungsfeld von Institutionen und Handeln zu erklären. Dazu rekonstruieren wir im ersten Schritt die Krise in zwei Perspektiven, zum einen als Verkettung ökonomischer und politischer Funktionszusammenhänge, zum anderen als Arena von Verteilungskonflikten. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir den Verlauf der Eurokrise, den wir in fünf Phasen unterteilen. Im Zentrum stehen dabei folgende Fragen: 1. Welche Akteure werden jeweils in die Problemkonstellation „Eurokrise“ hineingezogen? 2. Welche Relevanz haben die unterschiedlichen Akteure für das Funktionieren der gemeinsamen Währung und wie setzen sie diese Relevanz in den Verteilungskonflikten, die sich aus der Eurokrise ergeben, ein? Es geht also um die Entwicklung der Akteurskonstellation im Zuge der Eurokrise und um die Funktionsrelevanz dieser Akteure als Handlungsressource in den Konflikten um die Verteilung der Kosten der Krise. Im dritten Schritt der Untersuchung fassen wir unsere empirische Rekonstruktion der Eurokrise zusammen. Unser Fazit ist, dass die Eurokrise die defizitäre Institutionalisierung der gemeinsamen Währung manifest macht. Weiter gehende Regulierung, also zusätzliche Institutionenbildung steht aber vor dem schwierig auflösbaren Widerspruch zwischen funktionalen Erfordernissen und Interessen, bzw. zwischen Erwartungsstabilisierung und Interessenverfolgung.

Spain is one of the founding countries of the European Monetary Union, that adopted the single currency in 1999. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the overall impact of the Euro on the Spanish economy. The first part briefly introduces Spain's economy. The second part is about the European Central Bank's monetary policy. This part analyses the suitability of the single monetary policy and then examines its specific implications on the Spanish economy. The third part deals with the fiscal policy and the Stability and Growth Pact. This part analyses the impact of the Euro on the public finances.

Depuis 1939, une partie des pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest a pour monnaie le Franc CFA d'Afrique de l'Ouest. Ces pays constituent, de fait, une zone monétaire. La dévaluation du CFA de 1994 marque le passage d'une convertibilité automatique à une convertibilité partielle. Il est alors légitime de s'interroger sur l'optimalité de cette zone monétaire surtout dans un contexte où la Zone Euro connaît elle même des difficultés.Elle a pour ambition de s'interroger sur l'optimalité de la zone monétaire l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine. L'étude a donc pour objectif d'identifier si cette zone monétaire est une Zone Monétaire Optimale, (ZMO) au sens de MUNDELL (1961). L'objet d'étude soulevé ici portera plus particulièrement sur l'analyse des critères de faisabilité d'une ZMO et le passage à des critères de soutenabilité. Les critères de premier rang d'une ZMO, déterminés par les auteurs précurseurs de littérature sur la question dans les années 1960 et 1970, constitués principalement par les apports de MUNDELL, (1961).Notre travail propose de ne pas se limiter à la définition donnée par MUNDELL, même si cette théorie s'applique à juste titre pour des pays candidats à l'adhésion. Dans ce cas la Loi du Prix Unique permet de caractériser la fixité du taux de change comme étant une condition nécessaire de premier rang. Cette condition de premier ordre est non suffisante pour justifier de la soutenabilité et durabilité d'une zone. La fixité des monnaies est la deuxième condition retenue. La monnaie unique devient alors un choix rationnel qui se justifie par les avantages qu'elle procure aux pays qui l'adoptent. / Ome of the West African countries have adopted the CFA Franc (Franc of African Financial Communities) as their currency in 1939. These countries hence form a monetary zone. The devaluation of the French CFA in 1994 marked the passage from an automatic convertibility to a partial convertibility. It seems legitimate to consider the optimality of the West-African currency area - especially in a context where the Euro zone itself faces difficulties.This thesis aims to identify whether this area is indeed an optimal currency area as defined by MUNDELL in 1961. The object of study raised here will focus more particularly on the analysis of the feasibility of an OCA (Optimum currency area) and on the passage to sustainability criteria. The primary criteria of an OCA -- as determined by the founding authors in the literature of the 1960s and 1970s on the issue, MUNDELL being the main contributor (1961). This study however does not restrict itself solely to the definition given by MUNDELL, even though his theory applies rightly to countries which are candidates to entry into the union. In this case, the Law of one Price (Loop) can characterize the fixity of the exchange rate as a primary necessary condition. This proviso however is not sufficient to justify the sustainability and durability of an area. In case this latter condition is not met, the other condition is the fixity of currencies. The unique currency then becomes a rational choice which is justified by the advantages it procures countries which adopt it.

Cette thèse a pour but d'analyser l'impact de la création de l'Union économique et monétaire Ouest africaine (UEMOA), un exemple d'accord commercial régional (ACR) sur la dynamique du commerce et du développement au sein de cet espace. Elle analyse le processus de convergence réelle et examine les possibilités de renforcement du processus d'intégration économique. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse à l'impact du processus d'intégration sur la réduction des disparités de revenu par tête entre les pays membres. Mesuré par l'écart-type du PIB par tête à prix constant de 2005, les analyses ont révélé que les pays de l'UEMOA font l'expérience d'une convergence réelle entre 1970 et 2010. Cependant, selon nos analyses, la création de l'UEMOA n'a pas amélioré significativement les conditions de vie dans les pays membres. L'idée qui est exprimée dans ce premier chapitre est qu'un ACR qui réunit des partenaires plus ou moins égaux et vise non pas seulement à promouvoir le commerce intrinsèque, mais aussi et surtout l'intégration et le développement, peut être un complément utile pour le multilatéralisme en ce sens qu'il permet d'en corriger les inefficiences et à amortir ses chocs. Par contre, certains ACR peuvent constituer de graves menaces pour le système commercial multilatéral à partir du moment où ils génèrent des déséquilibres et renforcent les inégalités entre ceux qui les signent. C'est le cas de nombreux ACR impliquant des pays en développement et des pays développés. Le deuxième chapitre s'intéresse à un tel exemple d'ACR et propose une stratégie pour réduire les effets négatifs et permettre aux pays en développement de bénéficier des avantages du libre-échange. L'analyse est faite sur les implications macroéconomiques des Accords de partenariat économique (APE) entre les pays e l'Union européenne et ceux de l'Afrique des Caraïbes et du Pacifique (ACP). Nous montrons, à partir des données de la Côte d'Ivoire, qu'avec des dépenses publiques productives, les pays en développement peuvent réduire les effets négatifs de court terme des APE. Les économies en développement sont si petites et trop faibles face à la concurrence étrangère qu'elles mettent en place des politiques protectionnistes comme l'instauration d'un droit de douane sur les importations. C'est l'exemple du tarif extérieur commun imposé par l'UEMOA sur les importations en provenance d'un pays tiers. Le chapitre trois de cette thèse propose un modèle DGSE simple permettant d'analyser les impacts macroéconomiques de cette modification de la structure tarifaire. Il ressort que l'effet net d'un droit de douane est la réduction des principales composantes de la demande domestique et une baisse d'utilité des consommateurs. L'analyse montre que la dynamique de moyen et long terme ainsi que la réaction instantanée de ces composantes dépendent de l'élasticité de substitution entre les variétés des biens importés. / This thesis aims to analyze the impact of the creation of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), a regional trade agreements (RTAs) example on the dynamics of trade and development in this area. It analyzes the process of real convergence and examines opportunities to strengthen the integration process. The first chapter focuses on the impact of integration on reducing disparities in per capita income between member countries. Measured by the standard deviation of per capita GDP at constant prices of 2005, these analyzes revealed that the WAEMU countries are experiencing a real convergence between 1970 and 2010. However, according to our analysis, the creation of teh WAEMU has not significantly improved living conditions in memeber countries. The idea expressed in the first chapter is a regional trade agreements (RTAs) which brings together more or less equal partners and aims not only to promote trade themselves, but also and especially the integration and developemnt, may be a useful adjunct for multilateralism in the sense that it allows to correct inefficiencies and absorb its impact. On the other side, some RTAs can pose serious threats to the multilateral trading system from the moment they generate imbalances and reinforce inequalities between those who sign them. This is the case of many RTAs involving developing and developed countries. The second chapter focuses on one example of this type of RTAs and proposes a strategy to reduce the negative effects and to enable developing countries to reap the benefits of free trade. The analysis is done on the macroeconomic implications of economic partnership agreements(EPAs) between the countries of the European Union and those of the African Caribbean and Pacific. We show, using data from Côte d'Ivoire that, with productive public spending, developing countries can reudce the negative effects of short-term EPA. Developing countries are so small and too weak to cope with foreign competition that they implement protectionist policies such as the introduction of a tariff on imports. This is the case of the common external tariff imposed by the WAEMU imports from third countries. Chapter three of this tesis proposes a simple DGSE model, to assess macroeconomic impacts of this change in tariff structure. It appears that the net effect of a tariff reduction is the decrease of the main components of domestic demand and a lower level of consumer utility. The analysis shows that the dynamics of medium and long term as well as the instantaneous reaction of theses components depend on the elasticity of substitution between varieties of imported goods.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Balloti Monteiro.pdf: 467444 bytes, checksum: ce6e5589ae2f8b2550f67f4225c0b444 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-06 / The dissertation examines the absence of a supranational tax authority within the European Monetary Union and the difficulties of coordinating the bloc´s economic policy during the financial crisis started in 2007. Left to each Member State implementation of fiscal policy, but left to monetary policy and exchange rate borne by a single central bank aimed at their status is to maintain price stability, the implementation of economic policy within the bloc is shows conflicting since changes in one variable can interfere with many other influences that together in conducting economic nations. The international financial crisis of 2007 imposed an intense performance of the European Central Bank to try to mitigate the effects of the financial storm could cause the bloc's countries. Given its intensity, the governments of the countries had to act in a massive way to ensure survival of the economy of the country and save the financial and banking system of the Member States. Given this performance, many countries have reached critical levels of sustainability of their debt. Coupled with the structural problems that had some savings and gained greater importance when they started to use the single currency, the peripheral countries have been hardest hit by the crisis and are sources of uncertainty about the solvency of their economies / A dissertação analisa a ausência de uma autoridade fiscal supranacional dentro da União Monetária Européia e as dificuldades de coordenação da política econômica do bloco durante a crise financeira iniciada em 2007. Deixada a cargo de cada Estado-membro a execução da política fiscal, mas deixada a política monetária e cambial a cargo de um banco central único cujo objetivo pelo seu estatuto é a manutenção da estabilidade dos preços, a execução da política econômica dentro do bloco se mostra conflitante uma vez que modificações em uma variável podem interferir nas diversas outras que influem em conjunto na condução econômica das nações. A crise financeira internacional de 2007 impôs uma intensa atuação do Banco Central Europeu para tentar mitigar os efeitos que a tormenta financeira pudesse causar aos países do bloco. Dada sua intensidade, os governos dos países tiveram que atuar de maneira maciça para garantir a sobrevivência da economia dos países e salvar o sistema bancário-financeiro dos Estados-membros. Diante desta atuação, muitos países atingiram níveis críticos de sustentabilidade das suas dívidas. Aliada a problemas estruturais que algumas economias apresentavam e que ganharam maior relevância quando passaram a utilizar a moeda única, os países periféricos foram mais fortemente atingidos pela crise e são fontes de incertezas quanto a solvência de suas economias

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Paulo Boscoli.pdf: 540539 bytes, checksum: 032e8de8b7007486d8846d4f168e8280 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-05-20 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This research has objectives like: show the arguments of the Optimum Currency Areas theory, experiences on currency union (their motivations, architecture e consequences), the discussion on a currency union to Mercosul and, last, conclusions from the linkage of these arguments. Our final objective is to verify if a Mercosul´s currency union is viable, desirable and realistic, them to wonder possibilities to Brazil from this monetary arrangement. We justify this work with the importance the integration movements are getting and establishing in recent years, with many agreements and tracts on regional and global scope. All of these movements are presented to Brazil, partially, as the Mercosul. This is the most important agreement (manly because of its achievements) of which Brazil is a member. There for, all the skepticism over Mercosul nowadays can be relaxed and, thus, justify our work. To answer the questions made above, we will be based on a literature review on these issues and we will use some data base (such as the ECLAC statistical yearbook and the on-line data base for European Union, the Eurostat). We will show the arguments from the Optimum Currency Areas theory, from experiences on currency union and from the discussion on a currency union to Mercosul and we will try to establish some links between them. With some auxiliary statistic data, we ll illustrate, confirm or refute arguments from this debate. After it we found out that, generally, the a Mercosul´s currency union is viable, at the planning level since now, in short run, and at the implementation level only when the Mercosul´s countries pass safely through the practical and theorical challenges shown to them. However the option to a currency union way or an autonomous way appears to be a politics matter and should be the beginning of such process / Este trabalho tem como objetivos apresentar os argumentos da teoria das Áreas Monetárias Ótimas, experiências em uniões monetárias (suas motivações, arquitetura e conseqüências), o debate sobre uma união monetária para o Mercosul e, por fim, as conclusões derivadas do cruzamento da argumentação de cada uma dessas apresentações. Nosso objetivo final é o de verificar se uma união monetária para o Mercosul é viável, desejável e realista, além de aventar possibilidades que o Brasil poderia obter em tal arranjo monetário. Nossa justificativa é baseada na importância que os movimentos de integração vêm ganhando e consolidando, com vários tratados e acordos entre países em âmbitos regionais e mundial. Todo esse movimento é apresentado para o Brasil, em parte, na forma do Mercosul. Esse bloco é o acordo de integração mais ambicioso (nas suas conquistas, principalmente) que o Brasil participa. É dessa forma que todo o ceticismo que cerca hoje em dia esse bloco econômico pode ser relativizado e, por tanto, justificar nosso estudo. Para respondermos às questões anteriores, nos apoiaremos na revisão bibliográfica desses temas e usaremos bancos de dados (como o Anuário Estatístico da CEPAL e o banco de dados on-line sobre a União Européia, o Eurostat). Apresentaremos os argumentos da teoria das Áreas Monetárias Ótimas, das experiências de uniões monetárias e do debate para o Mercosul, faremos a sua sobreposição, com o intuito de constatar conexões e contradições. Com o auxílio de alguns dados estatísticos, ilustraremos, validaremos ou refutaremos alguns argumentos desse debate. Por fim, constatamos, de maneira geral, que uma união monetária para o Mercosul é viável em seu planejamento desde já, no curto prazo, e, em sua implementação, somente quando os países integrantes tiverem, satisfatoriamente, ultrapassado os desafios práticos e teóricos que se apresentam, sendo que a opção por uma união monetária ou um caminho autônomo de políticas monetárias, parece ser uma opção política e deve ser o início de tal processo

Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur le défaut souverain en offrant une nouvelle approche d'analyse, réconciliant les approches statistiques et structurelles. Avec comme fil rouge le lien entre crises financières, accumulation de dette et défaut souverain, ce travail répond à trois questions principales.En premier lieu, quand les pays font-ils défaut ? En posant un simple regard sur les principales variables macroéconomiques et les composantes cycliques des défauts souverains, je montre que le défaut se produit quand le pays subit un retournement brutal de croissance, ajouté à un large choc discontinu sur son ratio de dette sur PIB, apporté en majorité par une crise de change ou une crise bancaire.En second lieu, en quoi le risque souverain au sein d'une zone monétaire (par exemple la zone euro) diffère de celui d'une petite économie ouverte en change flexible, majoritairement décrit dans la littérature ? Je construis un modèle DSGE néo-keynésien dans lequel j'introduis du risque souverain ; je mets l'accent sur le rôle clé des comportements de consommation, à la fois dans la préférence pour l'union monétaire et dans la décision de défaut. Je regarde également l'efficacité de certaines politiques fiscales sur la réduction du risque souverain dans une zone monétaire.Enfin, les instruments de politique monétaire ont-ils été efficaces pendant la crise pour réduire les taux souverains ? J'évalue la transmission de la politique monétaire de la BCE, à la fois conventionnelle et non-conventionnelle, aux taux et aux volumes d'émissions de titres souverains pour les quatre plus importantes économies européennes. Je montre que seule la transmission du taux directeur vers les taux souverains a été effective ; les instruments non-conventionnels ont eu des résultats contrastés et essentiellement sur les taux d'intérêt. / This thesis offers a new approach to sovereign default analysis, by tackling both statistical and the structural approaches to sovereign default. Starting from the link between financial crises, debt accumulation and sovereign default, it answers three main questions.First, when do countries default? Taking a simple look at macroeconomic variables and business cycles around default, I show that economic defaults occur when the country experiences a switch from a boom to a bust, combined with a large discontinuous shock on its debt-to-GDP ratio, brought mainly by a currency or a banking crisis.Second, how sovereign risk in a monetary union (e.g. the Eurozone) differs from sovereign default risk in a small open economy usually described in default literature? Constructing a New-Keynesian DSGE model with sovereign default risk, I exhibit the key role of habit persistence in the preference for a monetary union and the default decision. I am also able to test the efficiency of various policy tools on sovereign risk.Third, have monetary policy tools been efficient to reduce sovereign spreads in the Eurozone? I assess the transmission of ECB monetary policies, conventional and unconventional, to both interest rates and bond issuance for the four largest economies of the Euro area. The main result is that only the pass-through from the ECB rate to interest rates has been effective. Unconventional policies have had uneven effects and primarily on interest rates.

The thesis analyzes measures adopted and applied by the EMU crisis management in years 2010 to 2012, that means at a time when debt and currency crisis was affecting the euro area countries the most. The main focus is dedicated to the rescue mechanism EFSF and expansive monetary policy of ECB as these crisis management tools were used for stabilization of the debt situation in Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Analyzing of these tools leads to assess their contribution to selected country and to European monetary union as a whole. The final part is devoted to possible solutions for the debt crisis and to the future of the eurozone and the common currency.