Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Yes / This study examines the effect of carbon price uncertainty on stock price crash risk. Utilizing the dynamic panel model on the data of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2018, we find that high carbon price uncertainty increases stock price crash risk. The impact of carbon price uncertainty is more prominent in the heavily polluting industries and during the post-period of the Paris agreement. The two underlying channels through which carbon price uncertainty induces stock price crashes are managers' hoarding of bad news and investors' heterogeneity. Furthermore, reducing information asymmetry inside and outside the firms can mitigate the influence of carbon price uncertainty on stock price crash risk. Our findings demonstrate that carbon price uncertainty as a newly underexplored factor induced by the prevailing curb of catastrophe risks has unintended but important implications on stock prices. / This study was supported by the Project of Social Science Achievement Evaluation Committee of Hunan Province (Grant No. XSP22YBZ160), Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 2022JJ40644 and No. 2022JJ40647). / The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo on 24th Oct 2024.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2008. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

Tidsperioden mellan räkenskapsårets slut och datumet för påskriven revisionsberättelse benämns audit report lag (ARL). Anledningarna till att ARL uppstår har studerats i stor utsträckning, men de konkreta effekterna som uppstår till följd av ARL är mindre studerade. En tidigare studie om ARL:s samband med ökad risk för aktieprisfall på den kinesiska aktiemarknaden visade på ett positivt samband. På grund av detta samband finns ett intresse att studera om ett liknande samband existerar på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Syftet med studien är att förklara ett eventuellt samband mellan lång ARL och ökad risk för aktieprisfall på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Studien använder sig av en deduktiv ansats och en longitudinell forskningsdesign bestående av kvantitativ data för att försöka förklara ett eventuellt samband mellan lång ARL och en ökad risk för aktieprisfall. Datamaterialet bestod av sekundärdata. Studien finner inget samband mellan lång ARL och ökad risk för aktieprisfall på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Däremot visas svaga indikationer på att kort ARL leder till ökad risk för aktieprisfall på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Studien bidrar med utökad kunskap om sambanden mellan ARL och ökad risk för aktieprisfall. Vidare bidrar studien med kunskap för revisorer, bolagsledningar och investerare om vilka konsekvenser ARL kan ha på börsnoterade bolags aktiekurs. / The time period between the fiscal year end and the audit report date is termed audit report lag (ARL). The determinants of ARL have been frequently studied, however the practical consequences of ARL have not been studied to the same extent. A previous study about ARLs association with stock price crash risk on the Chinese stock market showed a positive association. This association made it interesting to study if a similar association exists on the Swedish stock market. The purpose of this study is to explain a possible association between long ARL and an increased stock price crash risk on the Swedish stock market. This study uses a deductive approach and a longitudinal research design consisting of quantitative data to explain a possible association between long ARL and an increased stock price crash risk. The data set consisted of secondary data. The study finds no association between long ARL and an increased stock price crash risk on the Swedish stock market. However, the study does find weak indications that short ARL leads to an increased stock price crash risk on the Swedish stock market. The study contributes with increased knowledge regarding associations between ARL and an increased stock price crash risk. Furthermore, the study contributes with knowledge for auditors, company management and investors of the consequences ARL can have on listed companies’ stock price.

CAT-Bonds und Wetterderivate sind die Endprodukte eines Verbriefungprozesses, der nicht handelbare Risikofaktoren (Wetterschäden oder Naturkatastrophenschäden) in handelbare Finanzanlagen verwandelt. Als Ergebnis sind die Märkte für diese Produkte in der Regel unvollständig. Da geeignete Risikomaße in Bezug auf einen bestimmten Preis Voraussetzung sind zur Preisbestimmung, ist es notwendig den Marktpreis des Risikos (MPR), welcher ein wichtiger Parameter des zugehörigen äquivalenten Martingalmaß ist, zu berücksichtigen. Die Mehrheit der bisherigen Veröffentlichungen haben die Preise der nicht handelbaren Vermögenswerte mittels der Annahme geschätzt, dass der MPR gleich null ist. Diese Annahme verzerrt allerdings die Preise und wurde bisher noch nicht quantifiziert. Diese Doktorarbeit beschäftigt sich mit den Unterschieden zwischen dem historischen und dem risikoneutralen Verhalten der nicht handelbaren Basiswerte und gibt Einblicke in den Marktpreis für Wetterrisiko und die Wetterrisikoprämie. Diese Arbeit beginnt mit einer Darstellung der Instrumente zur Übertragung der Risiken, gefolgt von den finanziellen - statistischen Verfahren und endet mit einer Untersuchung reeller Daten, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf die implizierten Trigger-Intensitätsraten eines parametrischen CAT-Bond für Erdbeben und auf den MPR der Temperatur Derivate gelegt wird. / CAT bonds and weather derivatives are end-products of a process known as securitization that transform non-tradable (natural catastrophes or weather related) risk factors into tradable financial assets. As a result the markets for such products are typically incomplete. Since appropiate measures of the risk associated to a particular price become necessary for pricing, one essentially needs to incorporate the market price of risk (MPR), which is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measure. The majority of papers so far has priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption yields biased prices and has never been quantified earlier. This thesis deals with the differences between historical and risk neutral behaviors of the non-tradable underlyings and gives insights into the behaviour of the market price of weather risk and weather risk premium. The thesis starts by introducing the risk transfering instruments, the financial - statistical techniques and ends up by examining the real data applications with particular focus on the implied trigger intensity rates of a parametric CAT bond for earthquakes and the MPR of temperature derivatives.

[pt] Desde sua proposição, na decada de 60, o modelo de apreçamento de ativos de capital e suas expansões, em particular a modelagem proposta por Fama e French entre os anos de 1992 e 2015, causou um entusiasmado debate sobre a interpretação econômica de seus fatores. Foi demonstrado na literatura acadêmica que variaveis que descrevem o conjunto das futuras oportunidades de investimento devem comandar um prêmio de risco e deveriam ser correlacionadas com os fatores de Fama e French. Uma outra questão sempre discutida é a aplicação desse tipo de modelagem à mercados emergentes. Economias mais fracas e menos estruturadas seguiriam a mesma racionalidade de mercados desenvolvidos? As expansões de Fama-French acrescentam ao modelo do CAPM fatores que representam o tamanho, o valor, a lucratividade operacional e a politica de investimento das empresas, em duas versões básicas de modelo. A primeira, proposta em 1993, acrescenta ao excesso de retorno de mercado um fator de tamanho e um fator de valor. É normalmente chamada de modelo de três fatores. A segunda, proposta em 2015, acrescenta a versão de três fatores um fator de lucratividade operacional e um fator de politica de investimentos das empresas. É normalmente chamada de modelo de cinco fatores. Com o uso desses modelos e dos conceitos financeiros envolvidos, esta tese estuda a possibilidade de que as inovações na variância média do mercado, decomposta em dois fatores, um representando a variação média do mercado e outro representando a correlação média do mercado, pudesse aumentar a capacidade explicativa do modelo de três fatores no que se refere aos excessos de retornos de portfólios de ações. Ela também estuda a capacidade do modelo de cinco fatores de melhor explicar o retornos dos portfolios de ações, em blocos econômicos de mercados emergentes, em relação ao CAPM original e ao modelo de três fatores. Finalmente, o estudo mostra que as inovações no indice de inflação e as inovações da inclinação da curva de juros são proxies para os fatores de tamanho, valor, lucratividade e investimento, e, em conjunto com o excesso de retorno do mercado, conseguem explicar o cross-section dos excessos de retornos dos portfólios de ações melhor do que o modelo de cinco fatores. / [en] Since its proposition in the 1960s, the capital asset pricing model and its expansions, in particular the modeling proposed by Fama and French between the years 1992 and 2015, caused an enthusiastic debate about the economic interpretation of its factors. It has been demonstrated in the academic literature that variables describing the set of future investment opportunities should command a risk premium and should be correlated with the Fama and French factors. Another issue that has always been discussed is the application of this type of modeling to emerging markets. Weaker and less structured economies would follow the same rationality of developed markets? Fama-French s expansions add to the CAPM model factors that represent size, value, operating profitability, and corporate investment policy in two basic model versions. The first, proposed in 1993, adds to the excess market return a factor of size and a factor of value. It is usually called the three-factor model. The second, proposed in 2015, adds to the three-factor version a factor of operational profitability and a factor of companies investment policy. It is usually called the five-factor model. With the use of these models and the financial concepts involved, this thesis studies the possibility that the innovations in the average market variance, decomposed into two factors, one representing the average market variation and another representing the average market correlation, could increase the explanatory capacity of the three-factor model with respect to the excess returns of stock portfolios. It also studies the ability of the five-factor model to best explain stock portfolio returns in emerging market economic blocks relative to the original CAPM and the three-factor model. Finally, the study shows that innovations in the inflation index and innovations in the slope of the interest curve are proxies for size, value, profitability, and investment factors, and, together with excess market returns, explains cross-section of excess returns on stock portfolios better than the five-factor model.

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A dissertação aborda e compara as características dos índices de Sharpe (SR) e suas variantes, SRc e SRd, Sharpe generalizado (GSR ) e potencial de investimento (IP), sendo os índices GSR e IP associados a alguma função de utilidade. Pelo fato de o GSR e o IP serem idênticos, testes empíricos foram realizados entre SRc e o GSR. Ambos foram avaliados teoricamente sob dois aspectos, o que definimos de análise retrospectiva, i.e., análise de séries de log-retornos mensais observados, e a análise prospectiva, i.e., séries a ocorrer. No âmbito prospectivo, ex ante facto, o SRc (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado normal) e o SRd (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado lognormal), por estarem associados à função de utilidade quadrática, apresentam distorções como o ponto bliss e o agente econômico bomba de dinheiro. O mesmo ocorre no âmbito retrospectivo, ex post facto, com o GSR (potencial de desempenho de ativos de risco para indivíduos com função de utilidade HARA) quando o coeficiente de aversão ao risco é igual a um negativo, gama=-1. No entanto, o GSR pode ser associado a funções de utilidade diferentes da quadrática evitando seus efeitos indesejáveis. Sob a suposição de movimento browniano geométrico (MBG) e da utilidade HARA para o preço mensal ajustado de ações brasileiras e americanas e para pontos mensais de índices brasileiros e americanos, entre janeiro de 2000 e março de 2008, obtivemos os seguintes resultados: (1) o índice GSR para utilidade quadrática apresentou elevada correlação com o SRc; (2) a menor correlação de GSR com SRc ocorreu para utilidade logarítmica; (3) para a utilidade exponencial, o GSR apresenta elevado grau de correlação com o SRc. Os resultados mostraram que o GSR com utilidade exponencial é o índice que menos se aproxima do comportamento do GSR com utilidade quadrática. Sabendo-se das distorções da utilidade quadrática, a adoção do GSR com gama=1 parece mais adequado para a classificação de ativos de risco. / This master dissertation studies and compares the characteristics of Sharpe ratio and its variants, SRc and SRd, generalized Sharpe ratio (GSR) and investment potential (IP), both GSR and IP associated to any utility function. By the fact that GSR and IP are identical indexes, empiric tests were conducted between SRc and GSR. The indexes were evaluated theoretically under two different aspects: retrospective analysis, i.e., analyze the observed monthly log-returns, and prospective analysis, i.e., series to occur. Under prospective view, ex ante facto, SRc (Sharpe ratio with normal state variable) and SRd (Sharpe ratio with lognormal state variable), for being associated to the quadratic utility function, show the inherent problems to utility functions such as the bliss point and the pump money economic agent. The same happens in a retrospective view, ex post facto, with the GSR (performance potential with HARA utility function family) when the risk aversion coefficient equals minus one, gama=-1. Therefore, the GSR can be associated to different utility functions avoiding the undesirable effects. Under the GBM (geometric Brownian motion) condition and HARA utility function for the Brazilian and American adjusted monthly stock prices and indexes monthly points during January 2000 and March 2008, we reached the following: (1) results indicate that GSR for quadratic utility has high correlation level with SRc; (2) while the logarithmic utility showed lowest correlation level between GSR and SRc; (3) exponential utilities showed a high level of correlation between GSR and SRc. The results showed that GSR with exponential utility kept the biggest behavior difference for the GSR with quadratic utility. Based on the knowing problems of the quadratic utility, GSR with gama=1 seems to be a better index choice for risk assets classification.

The Autonomic Power System (APS) grand challenge was a multi-disciplinary EPSRC-funded research project that examined novel techniques that would enable the transition between today's and 2050's highly uncertain and complex energy network. Being part of the APS, this thesis reports on the sub-project 'RR2: Avoiding High-Impact Low Probability events'. The goal of RR2 is to develop new algorithms for controlling risk exposure to high-impact low probability (Hi-Lo) events through the provision of appropriate risk-sensitive control strategies. Additionally, RR2 is concerned with new techniques for identifying and modelling risk in future energy networks, in particular, the risk of Hi-Lo events. In this context, this thesis investigates two distinct problems arising from energy risk management. On the one hand, we examine the problem of finding managerial strategies for exercising the operational flexibility of energy assets. We look at this problem from a risk perspective taking into account non-linear risk preferences of energy asset managers. Our main contribution is the development of a risk-sensitive approach to the class of optimal switching problems. By recasting the problem as an iterative optimal stopping problem, we are able to characterise the optimal risk-sensitive switching strategies. As byproduct, we obtain a multiplicative dynamic programming equation for the value function, upon which we propose a numerical algorithm based on least squares Monte Carlo regression. On the other hand, we develop tools to identify and model the risk factors faced by energy asset managers. For this, we consider a class of models consisting of superposition of Gaussian and non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Our main contribution is the development of a Bayesian methodology based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to make inference into this class of models. On extensive simulations, we demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the algorithms to different data features. Furthermore, we construct a diagnostic tool based on Bayesian p-values to check goodness-of-fit of the models on a Bayesian framework. We apply this tool to MCMC results from fitting historical electricity and gas spot price data- sets corresponding to the UK and German energy markets. Our analysis demonstrates that the MCMC-estimated models are able to capture not only long- and short-lived positive price spikes, but also short-lived negative price spikes which are typical of UK gas prices and German electricity prices. Combining together the solutions to the two problems above, we strive to capture the interplay between risk, uncertainty, flexibility and performance in various applications to energy systems. In these applications, which include power stations, energy storage and district energy systems, we consistently show that our risk management methodology offers a tradeoff between maximising average performance and minimising risk, while accounting for the jump dynamics of energy prices. Moreover, the tradeoff is achieved in such way that the benefits in terms of risk reduction outweigh the loss in average performance.

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