This dissertation analyses the restructuring of the state and financialisation in Turkey in the post-1980 period with specific emphasis on public debt management. Turkey provides a model case of state pioneering financial deepening and intervening into the market for the socialisation of the losses of the financial sector. The dissertation argues that despite the increasing public debt ratio through 1980s and 1990s, the aim of financial deepening was persistent. The state contributed to the financialisation in the 1990s through the dominance of public securities with high yields in the market. The Treasury was a nodal point not only in the restructuring of the banking sector in the aftermath of 2001 crisis but also the insulation of economic management from political intervention. Its success is tightly related to financial markets and its restructuring presents a case of identification of public interest with the interest of financial sector. The literature on financialisation should be extended to cover the neoliberal transformation in countries labelled as &ldquo / emerging markets&rdquo / . The restructuring of the state in neoliberal era can be defined as financialisation of the state from a broader perspective. It contributed to financialisation by making the state rely on financial markets in an increasing number of policy fields.

Standard and Poor¡¦s (S & P), a global leading corporation in providing credit rating, published the sovereign rating outlook of Taiwan which was ¡§negative sign¡¨ at the end of 2007. The main reason was that the situation of public finance continued worsening. Based on traditional economic theory, the increased deficits or debts led to higher interest rates, and the increasing burden on enterprises for paying more loan cost, would have more adverse effects on the domestic investment activities. Therefore, this study is intended to explore the relationships among the long-term interest rates of public bonds, the outstanding debts, fiscal deficits, and government expenditure in Taiwan by analyzing 53 seasonal data from 1994:4 to 2007:4 as the samples. The findings indicate that no structure breaking points exist in every variable by using CUSUM test, and almost every variable is integrated of order one in unit root test. The results also reveal that there is no long-term relationship among the deficits, government expenditure, and interest rates using the cointegration analysis. There are probably two reasons for explanation: one is that people will increase saving automatically, and another is that the increased interest rates in the tax cut may be offset by the decreased interest rates in debts financing. Moreover, the outstanding debts and interest rates exist a significant negative relationship of long-term equivalence, and further variance decomposition shows that the effect of debts on interest rates is higher than the effect of interest rates on debts in the variable¡¦s explanatory ability. To explain the significant negative relationship, the possible main causes are liquidity factor, and the psychological anticipation of saving in public bond form directly or indirectly; the secondary cause is the fluctuation of interest rates affects the willingness of government financing.

In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to be examined.

Tyrimo objektas – skolos našta. Darbo tikslas – parengti metodiką ir įvertinti skolos naštą. Uždaviniai: 1. atskleisti valstybės skolos esmę, klasifikavimą bei skolinimosi tikslus; 2. išanalizuoti teigiamą ir neigiamą skolos poveikį ekonomikai; 3. nustatyti kokiais santykiniais rodikliais bei metodais vertinama skolos našta; 4. parengti skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką; 5. įvertinti Lietuvos skolos naštą ir palyginti su kitomis Baltijos šalimis. Tyrimo metodai: mokslinės literatūros analizės ir sintezės metodas, matematinio modeliavimo ir apibendrinimo metodai, statistinių rodiklių rinkimo, palyginimo ir grafinio vaizdavimo būdai. Lietuvos valstybės skolos naštos įvertinimas atliktas 2001–2011 m. laikotarpiu. Tyrimo rezultatai. Pirmoje darbo dalyje atskleidus valstybės skolos esmę, sudėties svarbą, bei skolinimosi tikslus, nustatytas teorinis valstybės skolos poveikis ekonomikai. Antroje darbo dalyje, išanalizavus įvairių mokslininkų darbus, pateikti skolos naštos įvertinimo modeliai, išskiriami skolos naštos įvertinimo rodikliai, parengta skolos naštos įvertinimo metodika. Trečioje darbo dalyje, pagal siūlomą skolos naštos įvertinimo metodiką, įvertinta Lietuvos skolos našta, gauti rezultatai palyginami su kitomis Baltijos šalimis, nustatytos rezultatų priežastys. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad Lietuvos ir Latvijos didėjanti valstybės skola jau tapo neigiamai ekonomiką veikiančiu makroekonominiu rodikliu, kuris rodo, kad valstybės skola tampa našta ateities kartoms... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Object of the research – debt burden. Aim of the research – to prepare methods and to assess the debt burden. Objectives: 1. to reveal the essence of the public debt, classification and goals of borrowing; 2. to analyze the positive and negative effects of debt on the economy; 3. to determine the indicators and methods to be used in evaluating the debt burden; 4. to prepare methods for the debt burden assessment; 5. to assess the debt burden of Lithuania, to compare it with that of other Baltic countries. Research methods: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, mathematical modeling, aggregation, statistical data collection, comparison, visualization techniques. The evaluation of Lithuanian public debt burden was carried out during the period of 2001-2011. Research results. The first part reveals the essence of the public debt, the importance of its composition and borrowing targets, determines the theoretical impact on the economy. The second part analyzes the models of the debt burden, distinguishes the figures of debt burden, prepares methodology the debt burden. The third part employs the methology of the debt burden of Lithuanian debt for future generations, compares the results obtained with those of the other Baltic countries, establishes reasons of results. The results show that growing national debt of Lithuania and Latvia has become a negative macro-economical indicator, which shows that public debt would be a burden for future generations. Lithuanian... [to full text]

<p>This dissertation critically examines predominant political-economic theories of public credit and public debt in light of the origins, development, and recent record expansion in such debt. Using a "history of thought" approach, I focus on those aspects of theory, from three main schools of thought - Classical, Keynesian, and Public Choice - which seek to explain the evolution of public debt, its political-economic causes and effects, the meaning of sustainability in public debt burdens, and the conditions under which governments are likely to monetize or repudiate their debts. For empirical context, I also provide three centuries of data on public debt for major nations, relative to their national income, and government bond-yield data for more recent decades.</p><p>There is value in classifying the major political economists who have examined public credit and public debt since 1700 as "pessimists," "optimists" or "realists." </p><p>Public debt pessimists argue that government provides no truly productive services, that its taxing and borrowing detract from the private economy, while unfairly burdening future generations, and that high and rising public leverage ratios are unsustainable and will likely cause national insolvency and long-term economic ruin. When public debts become excessive or un-payable, pessimists advise explicit default or deliberate repudiation. Public debt pessimists also believe financiers in general and public bondholders in particular are unproductive. Pessimists usually endorse smaller-sized governments and free markets. With few exceptions, most public debt pessimists appear in the Classical or Public Choice schools of thought. Among prominent public debt pessimists, the most representative are David Hume and Adam Smith.</p><p>Public debt optimists believe that government provides not only productive services, such as infrastructure and social insurance, but means to mitigate what they perceived to be "market failures," including savings gluts, economic depressions, inflation, and secular stagnation. Optimists contend that deficit-spending and public debt accumulation can stimulate or sustain economy activity and ensure full employment, without burdening present or future generation. To the extent public debts become excessive or un-payable, optimists tend to advise implicit default, by official and deliberate debasement of the national currency (inflation). As do pessimists, public debt optimists view financiers and bondholders as essentially unproductive. Optimists also defend a relatively larger economic role for the state. Almost without exception, optimists reside in the Keynesian school of political-economic thought. Among the leading optimists, the most representative are Alvin Hansen and Abba Lerner.</p><p>Public debt realists contend that government can and should provide certain productive services, mainly national defense, police protection, courts of justice, and basic infrastructure, but that social and redistributive schemes tend to undermine national prosperity. Realists say public debt should fund only services and projects that help a free economy maximize its potential, and that analysis must be contextualized - i.e., related to a nation's credit capacity, productivity, and taxable capacity. According to realists, public leverage is neither inevitably harmful, as pessimists say, nor infinite, as optimists say. Realists view financiers as productive and insist that sovereigns redeem their public debts in full, on time, and in sound money. Realists favor constitutionally-limited yet energetic governments that help promote robust markets. They appear mainly in the Classical era of political-economic thought. The most representative and renowned of the public debt realists are Sir James Steuart and Alexander Hamilton.</p><p>My main thesis is that public debt realists provide the most persuasive theories of public credit and public debt, and thus the most plausible interpretations of the long, fascinating history of public debt. Moreover, certain puzzles and paradoxes arising in contemporary public debt experience, among developed nations - including the recent, multi-decade trend of simultaneously rising public-leverage ratios and declining public debt yields - is explicable primarily in realist terms. In contrast, public debt pessimists and optimists alike offer unbalanced, inadequate accounts of public debt experience. Whereas pessimists are too often confused or mistaken in foreseeing an alleged "inevitable" ruin from public debt, optimists more often than not are confused and mistaken about the alleged "stimulus" attainable by large-scale deficit-spending and debt build-ups. Looking ahead, the realist perspective is likely to provide superior guideposts for maximally-accurate interpretations of public debt policies and trends.</p> / Dissertation

O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em analisar relações existentes entre a gestão da dívida pública e a condução das políticas monetária e fiscal, bem como examinar os efeitos da composição da dívida na trajetória de endividamento para o caso da economia brasileira. Com este foco, foi construído um modelo macro-estrutural que estabelece relações entre o processo de evolução da relação dívida/produto e a trajetória de variáveis macroeconômicas. Foram realizadas simulações utilizando a técnica de Monte Carlo para observar o impacto das trajetórias do hiato do produto e das taxas de câmbio, juros e inflação na evolução da relação dívida/produto em diferentes contextos de atuação das autoridades monetária e fiscal. No modelo estrutural a trajetória da dívida é função da participação dos instrumentos de financiamento na composição da dívida pública. Os instrumentos utilizados são: (i) títulos indexados à taxa Selic; (ii) títulos indexados a índices de preços; (iii) títulos prefixados; e (iv) títulos indexados à taxa de câmbio. O modelo permitiu captar que, quando a sensibilidade da inflação a mudanças na taxa de juros é pequena, os apertos monetários necessários ao cumprimento da meta produzem maior elevação na relação D/Y. Essa elevação se torna ainda mais acentuada quanto maior for a sensibilidade do produto a mudanças na taxa de juros. Os resultados permitem, ainda, analisar os trade-offs entre custo e risco oferecidos pelos instrumentos de financiamento em diferentes posturas das autoridades fiscal e monetária. / The aim of the present work consists in analyzing connections that exist between the management of public debt and the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as examining the effects of debt composition on the trajectory of the Brazilian Debt/GDP ratio. We propose a macro-structural model for the Brazilian economy to derive relations regarding debt management and the macroeconomic variables. Using Monte Carlo simulations we observed how inflation, GDP, interest rate and exchange rate alter their trajectories when we have changes in the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies. The impacts of these changes on Debt/GDP ratio depend on the debt composition. The funding instruments analyzed are: (i) Selic indexed bonds; (ii) inflation linked bonds; (iii) fixed-rate bonds; and (iv) dollar indexed bonds. The model captured that, the lower the sensibility of inflation associated with changes on interest rates, the higher the impacts on Debt/GDP consequences of a tightening in monetary policy The results allows to observe the tradeoffs between the risk and the cost associated with debt instruments for different scenarios of fiscal and monetary policies.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

This thesis comprises of four essays on fiscal policy and fiscal policy adjustment. The first of these essays, Chapter 2, reviews a wide range of literature about fiscal policy. This chapter also discusses the sudden stop and fiscal policy during sudden stops episodes. Chapter 3 constructs a simple dynamic deterministic model to study how the speed of adjustment to a sustainable level of debt affects economic welfare. The simulation results in Chapter 3 suggest that in order to bring the level of external debt to a sustainable level as required by foreign lenders, the small open economy will attempt to delay adjustment as long as possible. Chapter 4 uses a Structural Vector Autoregression Model to estimate government consumption multipliers for groups of countries. The empirical results suggest that: (i) The higher degree of financial openness, the larger the government consumption multiplier. (ii) The government consumption multiplier is significantly bigger in countries with higher levels of external debt. (iii) The higher the level of financial development, the smaller the government consumption multiplier. (iv) The government consumption multiplier in countries with fixed exchange rates seems to be bigger than in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime. Chapter 5 of this thesis analyses four case study countries including Greece, Latvia, Pakistan and Turkey. This chapter finds that fiscal policy choice varies across countries because there are many possible determinants for this. It will also be determined that all factors including the level of public debt, level of external debt and monetary policy, especially exchange rate regime, affects the fiscal policy choice of each country. Furthermore, Chapter 5 also points out that political economy can influence fiscal policy directly and indirectly.

[pt] O período de 1994 a 2008 caracteriza um momento da história fiscal brasileira importante. Durante esse período observou-se uma retomada do controle sobre o endividamento público, por meio de aumento expressivo do superávit primário. Nesta dissertação essa correção é analisada, qualitativamente e quantitativamente, mostrando que a condução austera da política fiscal foi capaz de estabilizar a trajetória do endividamento. Salienta-se a importância de uma posição primária que dependa dos movimentos da dívida, garantindo seu controle em um patamar estável. Foram feitos testes tradicionais da literatura, em que se avaliam diretamente os movimentos conjuntos das variáveis, e, adicionalmente, testa-se o poder preditivo do endividamento sobre o superávit primário. Apesar de encontrar evidências de que a correção na posição primária foi suficiente para induzir o controle do movimento da dívida, a análise qualitativa aponta para uma fonte de instabilidade, o crescimento constante das despesas primárias. / [en] The years between 1994 and 2008 were a very important period in Brazil s fiscal history. The government regained control over its public deficit during those 14 years by increasing its primary surplus to as much as 3% of gross domestic product. This dissertation analyses these changes through qualitative and quantitative methods, exposing the strict fiscal policies that led to control of public debt. It also places emphasis on the significance of an active fiscal policy on public debt levels and the size of the primary surplus. Traditional tests were utilized to evaluate fiscal policy sustainability and, in addition, tests how the primary surplus is impacted, and predicated, by public debt levels. While there is enough evidence showing how primary balance adjustments were sufficient for stabilizing the debt in question, qualitative analysis points out a new source of instability: the continuous growth of primary expenses.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / O spread bancário no Brasil tem mostrado resiliência quanto ao seu nível reconhecidamente elevado mesmo após as mudanças econômicas estruturais ocorridas a partir da implementação do Plano Real e a mais recente queda da taxa de juros básica da economia SELIC - promovida, em grande parte, pelo cenário de crise internacional e pelo aumento expressivo do mercado de crédito nacional. Adicionalmente a isso, a mudança no perfil da dívida pública também sofreu alteração recentemente, visando reduzir a importância de títulos públicos atrelados a SELIC e, com isso, aumentar a eficácia da política monetária praticada pelo Banco Central. Ademais, títulos públicos com essa natureza desincentivam a ampliação de um mercado de crédito desenvolvido, dado que são títulos de baixo risco e com rentabilidade suficiente para inibir as instituições financeiras à incorrer em novos empréstimos, com maior risco operacional. Este trabalho pretende investigar a relação entre as Letras Financeiras do Tesouro Nacional LFTs e a taxa de spread bancário ex-ante no período recente da economia brasileira. / The banking spread in Brazil has shown resilience as its recognized high level even after the structural economic changes that occurred since the implementation of the Real Plan and the latest drop in the basic interest rate of the economy - SELIC - promoted largely by international crisis scenario and the significant increase in the domestic credit market. In addition to this, the change in public debt profile has also undergone changes recently to reduce the importance of the SELIC indexed bonds and thereby increase the effectiveness of monetary policy practiced by the Central Bank. Furthermore, bonds with nature that discourage the expansion of a developed credit market, as are securities with low risk and profitability sufficient to inhibit financial institutions to incur new loans, with higher operational risk. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between the Letras Financeiras do Tesouro - LFT - and the rate of ex-ante bank spread in recent years of the Brazilian economy.