Über das Next Generation EU Programm ist eine gemeinsame Schuldenaufnahme unter dem Dach der EU-KOMMISSION erstmals in großem Umfang ermöglicht worden. Auch wenn stets betont worden ist, dass NGEU eine Maßnahme einmaliger Natur ist, so beschreiben einige EU-Amtsträger:innen, wie etwa der EU-Kommissar für Wirtschaft, PAOLO GENTILONI, sowie EMMANUEL MACRON und MARIO DRAGHI, welche fiskalischen Möglichkeiten die Verstetigung eines solchen Programms bieten könnte. Der Beitrag untersucht daher, welche Bedingungen mit der gemeinsamen Schuldenaufnahme verbunden sind und ob diese Konditionalität für eine künftige Schuldenaufnahme aus fiskalpolitischer Sicht adäquat ist. Daraus sollen Bedingungen abgeleitet werden, die bei einer künftigen gemeinsamen Schuldenaufnahme zu beachten sind. / Through the Next Generation EU Program, joint borrowing under the umbrella of the EU Commission has been made possible on a large scale for the first time. Although it has always been stressed that NGEU is a one-off measure, some EU officials, such as EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs PAOLO GENTILONI, as well as EMMANUEL MACRON and MARIO DRAGHI, describe the fiscal opportunities that the continuation of such a program could offer. The paper therefore examines the conditions associated with joint debt borrowing and whether this conditionality is adequate for future debt borrowing from a fiscal policy perspective. From this, the paper aims to derive conditions that need to be observed for future joint debt borrowing.

El documento busca analizar el posible impacto del Fondo de Estabilización de los Precios de los Combustibles derivados del petróleo (FEPC) en variables macroeconómicas de interés, como el PBI, la inflación y la Deuda Pública. El punto fundamental del análisis es debido a la inestabilidad que generan las volatilidades de los precios internacionales del petróleo en economías dependientes del recurso, como la es el Perú. Además, de identificar si las herramientas de estabilización, como lo es el fondo, son ejecutadas de manera eficiente sin generar efectos adversos que puedan perjudicar otras aspectos de la economía. En el documento se encontraron evidencias empíricas sobre la finalidad de la estabilización de precios en diversos aspectos, así como el nacimiento de la necesidad de estos dependiendo de la situación del país frente a los recursos extractivos. Se hizo uso de un modelo de vectores de autocorrección (VAR), para estimar el efecto que poseen los diversos tipos de combustibles, haciendo uso de los precios internacionales y los establecidos por el FEPC. Se usaron datos mensuales para realizar la estimación, del periodo 2008-2018 y fueron extraídos del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú y del Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión en Energía y Minería. La síntesis de la investigación indico que el FEPC cumple con su función principal de ejecutar una estabilización de los precios de los combustibles, suavizando los choques externos a la economía peruana; sin embargo, se requieren realizar modificaciones en el fondo debido a efectos colaterales que lo hacen insostenible en el tiempo. / The developed document examines the impact of the Stabilization Fund for the prices of petroleum-derived fuels (FEPC, in Spanish) in macroeconomic variables of interest, such as GDP, inflation and public debt. The main reason for this study is due for the instability generated by volatilities in international oil prices in resource dependent economies, such as Peru. In addition, to identify if the stabilization tools, such as the fund, are executed efficiently without generating adverse effects that could harm other aspects of the economy. The document found empirical evidence on the purpose of price stabilization in various aspects, as well as the birth of their need depending on the country's situation with respect to extractive resources. A model of autocorrect vectors (VAR) was used to estimate the effect of various types of fuels, using international prices and those established by the FEPC. Monthly data were used to make the estimate, for the period 2008-2018 and were extracted from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Supervisory Agency for Investment in Energy and Mining. The synthesis of the investigation indicated that the FEPC fulfills its main function of executing a stabilization of fuel prices, softening external shocks to the Peruvian economy, however, modifications to the fund are required due to collateral effects that they make it unsustainable over time. / Trabajo de investigación

[pt] Essa dissertação estuda os efeitos da posição fiscal na composição da dívida pública no curto prazo. Nós utilizamos dados da emissão de dívida pública do Brasil e avaliamos o impacto de déficits fiscais e risco país na participação da dívida de curto prazo através de métodos em forma reduzida e VARs. Nossos resultados sugerem que uma deterioração fiscal está associada a uma maior participação da dívida de curto prazo. Ao mesmo tempo, um choque fiscal aumenta a dependência da dívida de curto prazo e dívida flutuante. Em seguida, visando segregar fatores de oferta e demanda na emissão de dívida pública, nós estimamos a elasticidade juros em leilões para dívida pública de curto e médio prazo . Usando um método de identificação por heterocedasticidade, nós encontramos que ambos os fatores estão presentes. Entretanto, a demanda do mercado é consideravelmente mais elástica do que a oferta do Tesouro. / [en] This dissertation studies the effects of the fiscal stance on the composition of public debt in the short run. We use data on Brazilian public debt issuance and assess the impact of fiscal deficits and sovereign risk on the share of shortterm debt through reduced-form and VAR methods. Our results suggest that a fiscal deterioration is associated with a higher share of short-term debt. At the same time, a sovereign risk shock increases the reliance on short-term and floating-rate debt. Then, in order to disentangle supply and demand factors in public debt issuance, we estimate the interest-rate elasticity in auctions for short- and medium-term public debt. Using a method of identification through heteroskedasticity, we find that both factors are present. However, market demand is considerably more interest-rate elastic than Treasury supply.

This paper studies the relationship between corruption and poverty, public debt, and economic growth in the Gambia, to be estimated with data from 1992 to 2016 accessed from the World Bank database using the multiple regression analysis. While extensive literature has agreed on the damaging nature of corruption, not many have tested the relation between corruption and poverty, public debt and economic growth. This thesis intends to bridge the gap in the literature through contributing a study of the relationship of corruption and poverty, public debt, and economic growth in the Gambia during the time period 1996-2016. Results indicate that corruption has a positive statistical and significant relationship with poverty in Gambia. However, the relationship between corruption and economic growth and public debt are statically insignificant. In policy terms, the Gambia must increase the fight against corruption to make their public expenditure more productive and especially to minimise poverty.

This thesis deals with the problem of public debt within the G-20 countries and the Czech Republic. The current state of public finances in these countries was analyzed through the so called Public Finance Checklist, which has been specifically developed for this thesis. The Checklist includes some public sector liabilities that are not a part of the conventional analysis of public sector debt. The results of analysis show that hidden liabilities constitute a significant part of the total amount of public debt in the analyzed countries. This fact presents a threat to stability of public finances. While the total public debt is increasing, governments aim to optically decrease the level of debt. The author assumes that the reason for such behavior is the arrangement of political system with missing corrective mechanisms of the principal-agent problem and moral hazard put into effect by political representatives. At the end of the thesis the author suggests some methods to fix the problems and restrict the growth of public debt.

This thesis examines the results of public budgets in the CR in the period 1993 to 2009. This is a hot topic, with the growth of public debt is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this work is a comprehensive analysis of public finances, specifically addressing issues of access to public deficit and reform public finances. The theoretical part is focused on defining the area being examined and the theory describing this area have their roots back more than sixty years ago in the USA. Although the idea is relatively old data, their content is still current. This is particularly important now that the growing indebtedness of many countries of the European Union, including the Czech Republic. The paper reviewed the current action by governments in the management of public finances. In the analytical part, I analyze using appropriate statistical data trends, correlations and patterns of past and current periods. Based on the trends observed and outline possible scenarios for future development. Reported research findings are interpreted in the form of text, supplemented by a series of graphic illustrations. Not forgetting the situation in the Czech Republic comparison with other developing countries of the European Union. The conclusion summarizes the findings and recommendations and outline likely future developments.

Esta dissertação analisa a sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira utilizando a metodologia proposta por Bohn (1998, 2008), levando em consideração as operações de contabilidade criativa e os empréstimos do governo federal para bancos públicos, principalmente BNDES. Para isso, utilizam-se diversos conceitos de superávit primário (oficial; oficial excluindo as receitas de contabilidade criativa; e permanente) e de endividamento (dívidas líquida, bruta e bruta excluídas reservas internacionais), para o período de 2003 a 2014. Em todos os casos analisados, a hipótese de sustentabilidade não foi satisfeita, logo há a necessidade de se alterar a política fiscal do país. Foram realizados testes de quebra estrutural seguindo a metodologia de Bai e Perron (1998), nos quais se verificou que a alteração no padrão da política fiscal pós-crise de 2008 foi um dos principais responsáveis pelo resultado de não sustentabilidade. Verificou-se também que, para esse período pós-crise, o cumprimento da meta do superávit primário se deveu, em grande parte, às receitas de concessões, refinanciamentos (Refis) e dividendos, com destaque para BNDES e Caixa Econômica Federal. / This dissertation analyses the sustainability of Brazil\'s public debt using the methodology proposed by Bohn (1998, 2008), taking into consideration creative accounting and loans from the federal government to public banks, especially BNDES. To this end, various concepts of primary surplus (official; official excluding revenues from creative accounting; and structural) and debt (net debt; gross debt; and gross debt excluding international reserves) are used, from 2003 to 2014. For all the scenarios the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability was not satisfied, and therefore the government would have to change the fiscal policy in Brazil. Structural break tests were performed following the methodology of Bai and Perron (1998), in which was found that the change in fiscal policy post-crisis of 2008 was one of the major factors on the results of non-sustainability. It was found that, for this post-crisis period, the fulfillment of the primary surplus target was mostly due to concession revenues, refinancing (Refis) and dividends, highlighting BNDES and Caixa Econômica Federal.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo testar a hipótese de dominância fiscal, bem como estimar uma regra de reação fiscal para o Brasil, e é desenvolvido em duas partes. Na primeira parte investiga-se a existência de dominância fiscal no Brasil a partir de 1999 ? ano em que se inicia a fixação de metas de superávit primário pelo governo ? através de função resposta ao impulso. O resultado obtido indica que não ocorre o fenômeno da dominância fiscal no período analisado. Na segunda parte analisa-se se o comportamento da autoridade fiscal do Brasil pauta-se em alguma regra de reação fiscal. Pretende-se aferir se o governo reage a variações no nível da dívida ajustando o resultado primário, de modo a garantir a sustentabilidade da razão dívida/PIB e permitir que a política monetária seja eficaz. Para o período anterior à fixação de metas de superávit primário (1995-1998) não é possível definir uma regra de reação fiscal, pois o superávit primário não responde a mudanças na dívida pública. Para o período posterior (1999-2006), entretanto, conclui-se que o governo segue uma regra de reação fiscal, denotando preocupação em evitar a dominância fiscal, embora a especificação da regra seja distinta para os governos Fernando Henrique Cardoso e Lula. / This research, which is divided into two parts, tests the hypothesis of fiscal dominance and estimates a fiscal reaction rule for Brazil. In the first part we investigate the existence of fiscal dominance in Brazil beginning 1999 ? the starting point of primary surplus targets by the Government ? through an impulse response function. Our analysis indicates that the fiscal dominance does not apply for the concerned period. In the second part, we investigate if the Brazilian fiscal authority follows any rule of fiscal reaction. We intent to test if the Government reacts adjusting the primary surplus to debt variations, maintaining the sustainability of the debt/GDP ratio and preserving the efficacy of the monetary policy. For the period prior to the primary surplus targets (1995-1998), it?s not possible to define a rule of fiscal reaction, as the primary surplus does not respond to variations in the public debt. However, for the 1999-2006 period, we found that the Government does follow a fiscal reaction rule, highlighting the preoccupation of avoiding the fiscal dominance, even though the rule?s specification is distinct for the mandates of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Lula.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:24:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lucas de Moraes Cassiano Sant anna.pdf: 1056425 bytes, checksum: 994c7ac33a87a4ed9b784bde69addded (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-17 / The scarcity of public resources requires the use of ingenious and complex contractual arrangements by the Public Administration to provide at the same time investments in the country s infrastructure and high quality public services. Public-Private Partnerships arise, as well as a way to make the necessary investments without compromising the public budget immediately, as they allow the dilution of the payment for the infrastructure and services provided over up to 35 years. The assumption of obligations by the Public Administration has, however, impacts on the budget, since it binds many other agents to the consideration of payment assumed in chronologically earlier time. Moreover, the assumption of the payment of consideration could mean the same as take on debt, increasing the debts of Public Sector. These aspects will be analyzed throughout this work. The path to that answer begins in the analysis of the historical context of the creation of the PPP model. As a second step, we treat the organization of the public budget in Brazil and define basic concepts of financial law, such as public debt. Within this context, we identified the treatment of expenditure on PPPs, in accordance with the National Treasury. Then we analyze the essential characteristics of PPP contracts and differentiate it from loans natural public debt generators. Then, we dedicate to addressing the issue of Ordinance 614, of the National Treasury. This is the valid and legitimate instrument to establish the parameters for the accounting of PPPs as debt, in very specific cases. Ordinance STN 614 is an accounting tool, but it has great links with legal concepts that must be properly handled by the legal profession, especially when it comes to allocation of risks of PPP contracts. The way the risks of construction, availability and demand have been allocated will determine eventually the accounting of expenses a given PPP as public debt. Finally, we conclude that PPPs are indeed important contractual arrangements and the rules of budgetary control force point the way to the Public Administration to use the institute to the fullest and avoid deviations that could lead to excessive public debt and the lack of control of public expenditures / A escassez de recursos estatais exige a utilização de arranjos contratuais engenhosos e complexos para que a Administração Pública possa, ao mesmo tempo, continuar prestando serviços essenciais aos administrados e realizar investimentos na infraestrutura do país. As Parcerias Público-Privadas surgem, assim, como uma forma de se realizar os investimentos necessários sem comprometer o orçamento público de maneira imediata, já que permitem diluir o pagamento pela infraestrutura e serviços prestados ao longo de até 35 anos. Essa assunção de obrigação pela Administração Pública tem, no entanto, impactos no orçamento, já que vincula muitos outros mandatários ao pagamento de contraprestação assumida em momento cronologicamente anterior. Ademais, a assunção do pagamento dessas contraprestações poderia significar o mesmo que assumir uma dívida, aumentando-se, assim, o endividamento do ente. Essas são as análises feitas ao longo deste trabalho. O caminho para essa resposta começa pela identificação do contexto histórico de criação desse modelo. Como segundo passo, tratamos da organização do orçamento público no Brasil e de definir conceitos básicos de direito financeiro, como dívida pública. Já nesse contexto, identificamos o tratamento das despesas com PPPs dado pela Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional. A seguir, falamos sobre as características essenciais dos contratos de PPP e as diferenciamos das operações de crédito, geradoras de dívida pública. Na sequência, nos dedicamos ao tema da Portaria 614, da Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional. Esse é o instrumento vigente e legítimo a estabelecer os parâmetros para a contabilização das PPPs como endividamento, em casos muito específicos. A Portaria STN 614 é um instrumento contábil, mas que tem grande interligação com conceitos jurídicos que devem ser propriamente manejados por profissionais do direito, sobretudo quando se trata de alocação dos riscos dos contratos de PPPs, os quais são minutados por esses profissionais. É a forma como os riscos de construção, disponibilidade e demanda foram alocados que determinará, eventualmente, a contabilização das despesas com determinada PPP como dívida pública. Por fim, concluímos que as PPPs são, de fato, instrumentos contratuais importantes e que as regras de controle orçamentário vigentes indicam o caminho para a Administração Pública se utilizar do instituto na plenitude, bem como evitar desvios que poderiam levar ao endividamento público exagerado e ao descontrole das despesas públicas

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo Carvalho Tapia Lira.pdf: 1286443 bytes, checksum: 62f3cefe3bc713ec45e832d58c5d8dec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-02 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This study consists in analysis of the application of oil revenues in Brazil. Depart from the hypothesis that this application should be attentive to the intergenerational justice, as it is a non-renewable mineral resource and much of its use should be invested in public policy on future generations. Our analysis will focus on the capture of these rents by the State of Rio de Janeiro, in the form of royalties and special taxes which were used to pay the public debt with the Federal Government as part of the fiscal adjustment program. In our investigation, the application of these rents, justified in the interests of macroeconomic equilibrium, it can be explain by the fundamentals elements of contemporary capitalism, the financialization" / Este trabalho se propõe a estudar a aplicação das rendas do petróleo no Brasil. Partiremos da hipótese de que sua aplicação deve se ater à questão intergeracional, uma vez que se trata de um recurso mineral não renovável e boa parte de seu uso deveria ser investido em políticas públicas voltadas às gerações futuras. Nossa análise se concentrará na captação destas rendas pelo Estado do Rio de Janeiro, sob a forma de tributos (royalties e participações especiais), que foram entregues à União a fim de saldar parte de suas dívidas negociadas no Programa de Apoio à Reestruturação e ao Ajuste Fiscal dos Estados. Em nossa interpretação, a forma de aplicação atual destas rendas, justificadas em prol de um equilíbrio financeiro e fiscal do governo federal, faz parte do movimento de financeirização da economia