Predicting sales is an important step for many business processes. Several forecasting methods have been applied to uncountable different problems, however with no present research found in the area of renewable energy certificates. Thus, this study aims to examine the possibility of developing a model based on traded volumes of certificates, where a comparison between simpler and more complex models explores the general increased interest in machine learning models. Therefore, five different models are tested with monthly sales data: the statistical model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, the machine learning models Support Vector Regression and Extreme Gradient Boosting and further the neural networks Long Short-Term Memory and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory. Extensive data preparation is operated by taking into account seasonality and trends where data transformations are applied in addition to feature engineering. To evaluate the models, non-aggregated monthly forecasts as well as aggregated predictions of two and three months are examined. The results show that it is feasible to model the sales volumes of renewable energy certificates. As expected, the models generally perform better when evaluated based on aggregated monthly predictions. Also, when considering both evaluation strategies, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Support Vector Regression and Extreme Gradient Boosting are the only models showing better performance compared to a baseline model. The proposed solution to enable smarter and more efficient trading decisions today is a combination of the aggregated two months and quarterly predictions of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Support Vector Regression models. Considering an expected expansion of relevant available data for the company, the recommendation for the future is to specifically further develop the machine learning models with an anticipation of improved performance and valuable feature importance insights.

[pt] A redução da poluição e das emissões de gases de efeito estufa tem sido o foco de um grande esforço global. Nesse contexto, Certificados de Energia Renovável (RECs) são de grande importância para incentivar mudanças na matriz energética, visando à adoção de práticas sustentáveis. Dado o crescimento deste mercado e as características dos RECs, uma das potenciais ferramentas impulsionadoras da sua adoção é o protocolo de rede blockchain. Nesta pesquisa, analisamos três modelos autônomos de emissão e venda na blockchain de tokens baseados em RECs em condições de incerteza para um gerador de energia renovável. Nos três modelos, o gerador tem a opção de investir agora ou daqui a um ano para ter o direito de emitir RECs e ofertá-los através de leilões de venda trimestrais. No primeiro, assumimos que o preço do token é fixo, seguindo o conceito de uma stable coin. No segundo, consideramos que o preço segue uma função inversa da demanda sujeita a choques estocásticos. Finalmente, no terceiro, a demanda por RECs é incerta e busca-se maximizar o lucro do gerador. Realizamos uma aplicação numérica para verificarmos a validade dos modelos e concluímos, considerando os parâmetros adotados, que o gerador deverá investir no segundo modelo, pois foi o que apresentou maior VPL ( 60.992,70 Reais). Contudo, se a volatilidade da demanda for inferior a 20,00 por cento, o modelo ótimo para o gerador é o primeiro modelo. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é analisar a dinâmica do desempenho de produtos digitais sob incerteza. / [en] Reducing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions has been the focus of a major global effort. In this context, Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are important as they provide incentives for changes in the energy matrix, towards the adoption of sustainable practices. Given the growth of this market and the characteristics of RECs, one of the potential drivers of their adoption is the blockchain network protocol. In this research, we analyze three autonomous models for issuing and selling in the blockchain of REC based tokens for the renewable energy generator. In all three models, the generator has the option to invest now or in one year for the right to issue RECs and offer them through quarterly sales auctions. In the first model, we assume that the token price is fixed following a stable coin concept. In the second model, we consider that the price follows an inverse demand function subject to stochastic shocks. Finally, in the third model, the demand for RECs is uncertain and the purpose is to maximize the generator s profit. Through a numerical application, we verify the validity of the models and conclude, considering the parameters adopted, that the generator should invest in the second model, since it was the one with the highest NPV (60,992.70 real). However, if the demand volatility is less than 20.00 percent, the optimal model for the generator is the first model. The main contribution of this work is to analyze the performance dynamics of digital products under uncertainty.

With national cuts on solar PV subsidies and the current “oversupply” of panels, the global solar market is clearly threatened by a contraction. Yet, the need for more solar power is apparent, particularly for the world’s poor and vulnerable population. Instead of securing modern energy access for these people, trade interests have triggered a counterproductive solar trade war. This contemporary legal study addresses these issues by examining existent and potential instruments for stimulating a North-to-South solar capital flow. The research finds that recent reforms of the CDM will do little difference from previous deficiencies, as local investment barriers are not reflected in the monetary support of the clean development mechanism. Competing technologies are successfully keeping solar out of the game while baseline requirements are undermining the poor. Inspired by national renewable energy law and policy, international alternatives could address these shortcomings. While feed-in tariffs have been commonly advocated, the REC model seems far more appropriate in an international context. Its ability to be traded separately from the electricity makes it a perfect candidate as a substitute for the CDM. Entrusted with certain features it could address the geographical unbalance and provide with greater investor certainty. But the scheme(s) are under current WTO regulations required to be non-discriminatory, making it highly questionable to believe that developed countries would ever fund such incentive. It is not likely that solar capital exporters want Chinese solar PV manufacturers, who are already receiving significant production subsidies, to receive the same benefits as other producers. However, if countries adversely effected by subsidies where allowed to offset the injury by discriminating Chinese producers in international REC schemes, the Author believes that it would be easier to sell such a concept and implement it, for the benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as the world’s vulnerable and poor nations. However, this would require extensive reforms under WTO which the Author calls for.

<p>The aim of the thesis is to analyze the design of the present climate and energy policies. The main focus is on how the policy instruments affect the Swedish stakeholders who are included in the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). In-depth interviews have been carried out with representatives from the basic industry, energy utilities as well as industrial and green organizations. The purpose is to illustrate have how these stakeholders view the current policy framework and what amendments that they view as necessary.</p><p>Suggestions to the Government are given regarding the design of national policies and policy instruments to provide for an improved policy framework. The information and synthesis have furthermore been collected through extensive literature studies as well as participating at conferences and seminars.</p><p>The thesis is written as a monograph in order to address a larger group of readers interested in the transition of energy systems towards sustainability as well as policy makers and Swedish stakeholders. The common understanding that the global energy systems have to undergo a transition to renewables and higher energy efficiency due to the earth’s finite sources of fossil fuels and uranium presents large challenges for policy makers and business sectors as well as the society in general.</p><p>Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be drastically reduced and the work to achieve this has started through international negotiations such as the Kyoto Protocol. As the present commitment levels are low, an important issue in a short-term perspective is to develop a more comprehensive and efficient system with a much wider participation and more stringent emission targets.</p><p>In order to achieve current national policy goals and international GHG emission commitments the Swedish Government utilizes a number of policy instruments that are either nationally self-assumed or called for by international agreements or the European Union. The Swedish stakeholders that are included in the EU-ETS face a broad policy framework that has a large impact on their daily operations and future investment strategies. It is imperative for the policymakers, i.e. the Government, to act in accordance with the long-term perspective that the climate change issue and the transition of the energy system require. It is likewise important that any actions are in accordance with the operational and investment climate that the business sector faces. It is argued that these aspects are not fully considered as the success of the next national budget or term of public office seems to overshadow these issues. A long-term perspective is required to provide the business sector with stable and reliable incentives. This is needed to provide the economic conditions under which the businesses can realize investments that will result in emission reductions. Short-term policies reinforce the view of environmental investments as a form of risk investments. This negatively affects the possibility of the policy instruments to effectively achieve established policy goals.</p><p>Paying attention to these requirements is however not a simple task for policy makers as it will require agreements between the political parties. This demonstrates the main political difficulty with climate change – the requirement of a long-term and full commitment by all state authorities. It should be noted that the thesis does not attempt to describe the Swedish policy makers as neglecting the urgency of acting to mitigate climate change. The national agenda is far to advanced from an international perspective for such statements. The thesis however pinpoints some important issues highlighted by stakeholders, within the business sector and other organizations, who are concerned with the present climate and energy policy framework.</p><p>Some of the findings are as follows:</p><p>• Reducing GHG emissions in order to combat climate change must include a long-term perspective</p><p>• The design of policy instruments should consequently be long-term to increase the support for investments in GHG emission reducing technologies</p><p>• The design of policies that promote low GHG production alternatives within the energy utilities should be improved</p><p>• The large potential for reduced GHG emission available through fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements in the Swedish basic industry should be promoted by amended policies</p><p>• Reformulate or abandon the national GHG emissions target goal with the current formulation</p><p>• Strive for an emission rights allocation system that is as transparent, fair and predictable as possible</p><p>• The policy framework should aim for a high level of stability through interaction with the affected stakeholders</p><p>• These factors are inherently important for the overall efficiency of the policy framework</p>

The aim of the thesis is to analyze the design of the present climate and energy policies. The main focus is on how the policy instruments affect the Swedish stakeholders who are included in the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). In-depth interviews have been carried out with representatives from the basic industry, energy utilities as well as industrial and green organizations. The purpose is to illustrate have how these stakeholders view the current policy framework and what amendments that they view as necessary. Suggestions to the Government are given regarding the design of national policies and policy instruments to provide for an improved policy framework. The information and synthesis have furthermore been collected through extensive literature studies as well as participating at conferences and seminars. The thesis is written as a monograph in order to address a larger group of readers interested in the transition of energy systems towards sustainability as well as policy makers and Swedish stakeholders. The common understanding that the global energy systems have to undergo a transition to renewables and higher energy efficiency due to the earth’s finite sources of fossil fuels and uranium presents large challenges for policy makers and business sectors as well as the society in general. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be drastically reduced and the work to achieve this has started through international negotiations such as the Kyoto Protocol. As the present commitment levels are low, an important issue in a short-term perspective is to develop a more comprehensive and efficient system with a much wider participation and more stringent emission targets. In order to achieve current national policy goals and international GHG emission commitments the Swedish Government utilizes a number of policy instruments that are either nationally self-assumed or called for by international agreements or the European Union. The Swedish stakeholders that are included in the EU-ETS face a broad policy framework that has a large impact on their daily operations and future investment strategies. It is imperative for the policymakers, i.e. the Government, to act in accordance with the long-term perspective that the climate change issue and the transition of the energy system require. It is likewise important that any actions are in accordance with the operational and investment climate that the business sector faces. It is argued that these aspects are not fully considered as the success of the next national budget or term of public office seems to overshadow these issues. A long-term perspective is required to provide the business sector with stable and reliable incentives. This is needed to provide the economic conditions under which the businesses can realize investments that will result in emission reductions. Short-term policies reinforce the view of environmental investments as a form of risk investments. This negatively affects the possibility of the policy instruments to effectively achieve established policy goals. Paying attention to these requirements is however not a simple task for policy makers as it will require agreements between the political parties. This demonstrates the main political difficulty with climate change – the requirement of a long-term and full commitment by all state authorities. It should be noted that the thesis does not attempt to describe the Swedish policy makers as neglecting the urgency of acting to mitigate climate change. The national agenda is far to advanced from an international perspective for such statements. The thesis however pinpoints some important issues highlighted by stakeholders, within the business sector and other organizations, who are concerned with the present climate and energy policy framework. Some of the findings are as follows: • Reducing GHG emissions in order to combat climate change must include a long-term perspective • The design of policy instruments should consequently be long-term to increase the support for investments in GHG emission reducing technologies • The design of policies that promote low GHG production alternatives within the energy utilities should be improved • The large potential for reduced GHG emission available through fuel switching and energy efficiency improvements in the Swedish basic industry should be promoted by amended policies • Reformulate or abandon the national GHG emissions target goal with the current formulation • Strive for an emission rights allocation system that is as transparent, fair and predictable as possible • The policy framework should aim for a high level of stability through interaction with the affected stakeholders • These factors are inherently important for the overall efficiency of the policy framework