Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:31:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-06-06Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:42:03Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 cafeo_rc_dr_botfca.pdf: 807318 bytes, checksum: 3216b6d5df542a12dab7c6f93afdbc49 (MD5) / O presente trabalho teve por objetivo estimar o custo médio de capital em produtos agrícolas. Existem modelos que determinam o custo médio de capital no mercado de capitais, definindo parâmetro para fixação do que se chama de taxa mínima de atratividade em investimentos produtivos. Tais modelos levam em conta o custo de capital de terceiros, que é determinado a partir de pesquisas em linhas de crédito disponíveis no mercado e ainda o custo do capital próprio, este sim, requerendo uma análise detalhada de sua composição. Foi construído um modelo que pondere o custo de obter recursos de terceiros, quando houver, e o capital próprio, tendo por base o modelo CAPM – Capital AssetPrincing Model (Modelo de Precificação de Ativos) utilizado quando da análise de risco e retorno no mercado de capital. A finalidade deste estudo é aplicar esta metodologia na análise de risco e retorno em investimentos produtivos em setores que operam com produtos agrícolas. Para tanto foi realizada revisão bibliográfica, bem como a definição de materiais e métodos, com a apuração de resultados. Foi aplicado o modelo CAPM em uma ação selecionada comparando-o ao mercado acionário como um todo, representado pelo IBOVESPA. Em seguida foi construída carteira teórica de produtos agrícolas selecionados para este fim, denominado de I PRODUTOS AGRÍCOLAS. Em seguida foi analisado isoladamente cada produto selecionado, comparando-o a esta carteira teórica de produtos agrícolas, construída especialmente para tal fim. Com isso pretendeu-se testar cientificamente um modelo que permita, quando da análise da viabilidade de projetos no setor agrícola, estabelecer a taxa mínima de atratividade que retrate o risco e retorno no setor, ponderando o custo do capital próprio, originado a partir do modelo CAPM e o custo do capital de terceiros, baseado nas taxas de juros praticados pelo mercado... / This work had aimed to estimate the average cost of capital in agricultural products. There are templates that determine the average cost of capital on the capital market, defining parameter for fixing the called minimum rate of attractiveness in productive investments. These models take into account the cost of third-party capital, which is determined from searches on credit lines available in the market and even the cost of equity, this sim, requiring a detailed analysis of its composition. Will be built a model that considers the cost of taking the resources of third parties, when, and equity, on the basis of the CAPM Capital Asset Princing Model (asset pricing model) used when analyzing risk and return on the capital market. The purpose of this study is to apply this methodology in the analysis of risk and return in productive investments in sectors that operate with agricultural products. For both was conducted literature review as well as the definition of materials and methods, with the poll results. Was applied the CAPM model in a selected action comparing it to the stock market as a whole, represented by the IBOVESPA. Next was built theoretical portfolio of selected agricultural products for this purpose, called I agricultural products. Then was analyzed separately each product selected, comparing it to this theoretical portfolio of agricultural products, built especially for this purpose. This was intended to test scientifically a template that allows, when assessing the feasibility of projects in the agricultural sector, establish the minimum rate of attractiveness that portrays the risk and return in the sector, bearing in mind the cost of equity, originated from the CAPM and the cost of capital to third parties, based on the interest rates charged by the market. The model developed generated a theoretical reference in determining... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Dado que o investimento no mercado acionário envolve incerteza, devíamos esperar que seu retorno médio fosse relativamente superior a uma aplicação livre de risco para compensar o investidor pelo risco adicional que ele incorre quando aplica seus recursos em ações. Entretanto, não encontramos tal evidência quando analisamos o comportamento do mercado acionário brasileiro. Isto porque, considerando os retornos realizados médio dos últimos vinte anos, o prêmio histórico foi relativamente baixo. Assim, naturalmente surge à questão se tal estimativa corresponde a um valor razoável para inferirmos o futuro comportamento do mercado acionário. Para responder a esta questão, nossa metodologia constituiu em três etapas. Na primeira, revisamos a literatura em busca de técnicas de estimação do prêmio e selecionamos as abordagens baseado em artigos recentes, citações e disponibilidade de dados. Além disso, também realizamos algumas propostas de estimação. Em seguida, apresentamos os resultados das metodologias selecionadas para os anos recentes e observamos que as estimativas apresentaram certo grau de heterogeneidade. Na segunda etapa, testamos o desempenho dos modelos empíricos estimados usando testes de previsão fora da amostra. Os resultados apontaram que alguns modelos foram superiores ao prêmio histórico. Desta forma, encontramos evidências de que o prêmio histórico representa apenas mais uma fonte de informação para inferir o prêmio esperado e, se tomado sozinho, não constitui um procedimento de inferência razoável. Visto que cada modelo apresenta uma estratégia empírica para inferir o prêmio, todos deveriam representar uma fonte informacional sobre o prêmio futuro. Consequentemente, uma corrente da literatura recente destaca que a estratégia ótima pode ser agregar informações dos modelos individuais. Com este intuito, o último passo da metodologia foi combinar informações dos modelos que apresentaram melhor desempenho em relação ao prêmio histórico e verificar se tal procedimento aumentou a performance do poder preditivo dos modelos. Como resultado, verificamos que tal abordagem melhora e estabiliza a previsão do prêmio. / Given that investment in the stock market involves uncertainty, we should expect that the average return was relatively higher than a risk-free investment in order to compensate investors for the additional risk they incur. However, we find no such evidence when we analyze the Brazilian stock market behavior. This is because, considering the realized average returns of the past twenty years, the historic equity risk premium was relatively low. So, naturally, the question of whether such an estimate corresponds to a reasonable value to infer the future behavior of the stock market arises. To answer this question, our methodology consists of three stages. At first, we review the literature on risk premium estimation techniques and select the different approaches based on recent articles, quotes and availability of data. We also made some estimation proposals. We then proceed and present the results of the methodologies selected for the recent years and find that the estimates presented some degree of heterogeneity. On the second step, we test the performance of our estimates using out-of-sample predictive tests. The results showed that some models performed better than the historical premium. Thus, we find evidence that the historical premium is just another source of information to infer the expected award and, if taken alone, does not constitute a reasonable inference procedure. Since each model presents an empirical strategy to infer the premium, every one of them should represent an information source on the future premium. Consequently, a recent literature points out that the current optimal strategy may be to aggregate information from individual models. To this end, the last step of the methodology was to combine information of the models that performed better against the historical premium and verify that this procedure increased the power of the predictive performance of the models. As a result, we find that this approach improves and stabilizes the premium forecast.

Andalucía ha sido tradicionalmente una zona de expulsión de emigración. Actualmente el fenómeno se ha invertido y recibe población de multitud de latitudes diferentes. A los inmigrantes extranjeros hay que unir los retornados. Aquí vamos a estudiar los procesos de retorno desde la Argentina y Bélgica. Los resultados de la investigación muestran que los migrantes que estuvieron en Bélgica han experimentado una migración circular con una clara intención de retorno, basada, sobre todo, en la consecución de los objetivos previstos o el incumplimiento de estos. Por su lado, el caso del retorno latinoamericano es distinto. En primer lugar, retornan, sobre todo, los hijos de los emigrantes. En segundo lugar, la migración inicial tenía un carácter definitivo, por tanto, han sido los factores contextuales —declive económico y falta de expectativas— los que han provocado el retorno. En tercer lugar, las redes sociales han jugado un papel muy secundario en el regreso. / Andalucía has been, traditionally, a starting point for emigration. Nowadays, the phenomenon has reversed and it receives populations from different parts of the world. To the foreign migrants we have to add the people who have returned to Andalucía. Here, we are going to study the return process from Belgium and Argentina. The results of the investigation show that the migrants who were in Belgium have experienced a circular migration with a clear intention of coming back, based, above all, on fulfillment or a failure to fulfill planned objectives. On the other hand, the case of the Latin American return is different. First of all, those who return are mostly the descendants of the emigrants. In second place, the initial migration has a definitive character; thus, there have been contextual factors—economic decline and lack of prospects—that have caused the return. In third place, the social networks have had a very minor role in the return to Andalucía.

L’objectif de cette recherche est de mettre en évidence le thème de la nature comme noyau de l’œuvre de Le Clézio et de mener une étude synchronique et diachronique de ce thème basée sur un corpus complet de l’auteur. En suivant un processus de quête de l’identité naturelle, qui conduit de la « nature dénaturée » dans les premières œuvres à la « nature retrouvée » dans les œuvres ultérieures, en passant par l’horizon d’autres mondes dans les œuvres dans l’époque de transition, on essaie de refermer la boucle qui obsède Le Clézio. Contemporain de notre temps, Le Clézio esquisse une peinture de l’espace urbain moderne sous forme d’une prison où la nature universelle et la nature humaine sont aliénées, diabolisées ou expulsées dans la domination de la modernité. L’absence de l’existence et la fausseté de la réalité poussent à une recherche de vérité dans l’autre côté du monde à la lumière des philosophies orientales et amérindiennes. Le retour à la rêverie élémentaire du monde naturel primitif fait appel également aux philosophies présocratiques et aux mythes des civilisations primitives. L’identité idéale en tant que vraie nature humaine est reconstruite par Le Clézio en adoptant l’identification du soi à la nature universelle au niveau personnel, et en promouvant le métissage des sangs au niveau culturel, d’une manière qui tend à ce que le monde soit enfin remis en harmonie. / The objective of research is to clarify the theme of nature as the core of Le Clézio’s work and deepen the synchronic and diachronic study of this topic based on a full corpus of the author. Following a process of seeking the natural identity, that is to say from the “denatured nature” in his early works to the “return to nature” in his later works, through the horizon on the other side in his works in the period of transition, we try to close the loop that obsesses Le Clézio. Contemporary of our time, Le Clézio sketch a painting of modern urban space as a prison where the universal nature and human nature are alienated, demonized or expelled in the domination of modernity. The lack of existence and the falseness of reality grow to a search for truth in the other side of the world in the light of Oriental and Indian philosophies. The return to the primitive elemental reverie of natural world also calls on pre-Socratic philosophies and myths of primitive civilizations. The ideal identity as the true human nature is reconstructed by Le Clézio in adopting the identification of the self with the universal nature on a personal level and promoting the mixing of bloods at the cultural level in a way that the world is finally handed in harmony.

Segundo o artigo ?Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence?, publicado pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional em 17 de março de 2003, a globalização financeira, definida como o aumento dos fluxos de capitais e investimentos entre países, contribuiu para o desenvolvimento do mercado de títulos de renda fixa internacional. A grande necessidade de recursos financeiros para o pagamento de dívidas e investimentos em diversos setores produtivos faz com que os governos utilizem-se de captações externas. Neste contexto, investidores interessados na obtenção de retornos superiores, compram esses títulos, diversificam suas carteiras de investimento e usufruem dos rendimentos que estes possibilitam, sejam sob a forma de cupom e/ou ganhos de capital.O trabalho de Harry Markowitz (1952), ?Portfolio Selection?, cuja principal contribuição é a distinção entre a variabilidade do retorno de um ativo financeiro e seu impacto no risco de uma carteira de investimento, possibilita que, desde que se disponha de um conjunto de dados, constitua-se carteiras que forneçam o menor nível de risco para um determinado nível de retorno de investimento. Este estudo propõe investigar se o trabalho desenvolvido por Harry Markowitz em 1952 é aplicável entre o período de janeiro de 2004 e dezembro de 2005 na composição de carteiras diversificadas de investimento. Para este propósito, todos os títulos de dívida emitidos pelos governos americano, brasileiro, argentino, mexicano e venezuelano no exterior, em dólares americanos, com datas de emissão até dezembro de 2003 e vencimento superior a dezembro de 2005 foram extraídos do Euroclear Bank (?Clearing House?). Cotações e dados complementares foram obtidos do sistema de informações financeiras Bloomberg, auxiliando na filtragem dos dados. A aplicação de vários testes permitiu concluir que, em média, ao adicionar ativos de países considerados emergentes da América Latina, os portfolios apresentam retornos superiores. Testes sobre distribuição dos retornos históricos dos títulos de dívida emitidos pelo governo brasileiro foram realizados, encontrando-se que seguem uma distribuição normal. Alguns questionamentos surgiram durante o trabalho, como a influência do aumento da taxa básica de juros americana ?Fed Fund? sobre o retorno dos portfolios, a influência de legislações entre diferentes jurisdições, sendo objeto de estudos futuros. / According to the article ?Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence?, published by the International Monetary Fund on March 17, 2003, the financial globalization, defined as na increase in the capital and investment flows between countries, contributed to the development of the fixed income international market. Financial resources to the payment of debts and investments in several productive sectors conducted Governments to use externals funding. In this context, investors interested to obtain better returns, buy securities, diversify their portfolios and they can reach gains under the coupons they received and/or capital gain. The Markowitz?s job in 1952, entitled ?Portfolio Selection?, about the relation between risk and return was the great contribution to the Modern Finance Theory. The contribution laid down on the distinction between the variability of an asset return and the impact in the portfolio risk. Markowitz? articles showed how to reach a portfolio which provides the best relation between risk and return. This present study aim to investigate whether the Markowitz?s article is applicable between January 2004 and December 2005. For this purpose, all fixed income securities issued by the American, Brazilian, Argentinean, Mexican and Venezuelan, in US Dollars, issuance date up to December 2003 and maturity date higher than December 2005 were extracted from Euroclear Bank (?Clearing House?). Quotations and additional data were obtained from Bloomberg Financial Markets. Tests were conducted to assess the portfolios and, on average, when you add securities from emerging countries at Latin America, the portfolio has a better return at the same level of risk. Distribution tests on historical returns showed normality. Some questions could not be answered, in special on the influence of raising Fed Fund rates on portfolio returns and the influence of legislations in different jurisdictions, being subject for future articles.

Neste trabalho apresentam-se modelos de erro de rastreamento que sao estrategias utilizadas pelos administradores de carteiras de investimento que visam montar portfolios para seguir algum ndice de referencia (benchmark). Denomina-se nesses casos de erro de rastreamento a diferenca entre o retorno da carteira que se deseja montar e o retorno da carteira de referencia. Propoe-se um modelo de minimizacao da variancia do erro de rastreamento para um excesso de retorno esperado xado para carteiras de investimento com ativos que tenham alta liquidez, alem de apresentar os modelos de media variancia de Markowitz ([16]) e de erro de rastreamento de Roll ([1], [19]). O trabalho e concluido com a analise graca dos modelos, onde observa-se que o modelo com restricao de liquidez nos ativos apresenta bons resultados. / This work shows the tracking error models that are strategies used by portfolios investment managers in order to build (construct) portfolios to follow (track) some benchmark. It is denominated in those cases the tracking error to the dierence between the return in the portfolio wanted and the benchmark return. It is proposed a minimization model of the tracking error variance for some excess of the expected return xed to investment portfolios with assets that have high liquidity, besides to show the Markowitz mean variance models [17] and the Roll tracking error models [1, 19]. The work ends with a graphical analysis of the models, where it is observed that the model with liquidity constraints in assets shows good results.

Les politiques migratoires dites ‘de retour’ sont utilisées par les Etats pour gérer les questions migratoires. Leur hypothèse est que les populations migrantes – qu’elles soient composées de réfugiés, de demandeurs d’asile en échec, ou de migrants économiques – peuvent et doivent retourner dans leur pays d’origine. Ce retour est censé s’effectuer de manière volontaire ou forcée, avec ou sans assistance, afin que les migrants reprennent le cours de leurs vies dans leurs sociétés d’origine et soient dissuadés de reprendre la route de la migration. La finalité de ces politiques est double : le retour et le développement, afin de faciliter les conditions d’entrée, la réintégration, et d’ancrer les migrants durablement dans leur société et pays d’origine. Si ces approches ont été privilégiées dans les efforts Nord-Sud et Sud-Sud de la régulation des flux migratoires, une question s’impose : quelles sont leurs conséquences réelles et indirectes ? En s’appuyant sur le cas Afghan entre 2008 et 2015, cette thèse s’interroge sur la place et le rôle des différents acteurs : les Etats (pays d’origine, de transit, de destination), les organisations internationales (UNHCR, IOM), les organisations non-gouvernementales, la société afghane, et, finalement, les migrants eux-mêmes. Dans cette fabrique, cette machinerie du retour, quels sont les intérêts et enjeux pour chacun de ces acteurs ? Quelles nouvelles frontières contribue-t-elle à faire émerger ? La mécanique des problèmes et des solutions doit ici être déconstruite pour mieux saisir comment les politiques et programmes ont profondément redéfini la place de la société afghane et des individus qui la composent. / Return migration policies are used by states to manage migration. The assumption is that populations on the move, be it refugees, failed asylum seekers, or migrants, can return to their home country, voluntarily or by force, with or without assistance, to resume their lives in societies of origin and be deterred from further migration abroad. In “whose interest”? The end goal of most policies is dual: a migration and development objective, i.e. to improve the conditions in the country of origin (reconstruction), linked closely with a deterrence objective, i.e. to prevent unwanted migration (reintegration). This thesis will focus on 3 types of return - the repatriation of refugees, the voluntary return of migrants and the forced return of migrants as illustrations of the diversity of return migration policies. These policies have been dominant features in the North-South and South-South efforts to regulate migration and immigration flows – but do they work? What is their intended and actual consequences? This thesis takes the case study of returns to Afghanistan. Ten years of an intervention, six million refugees have returned, and one transition is in process. Faced with this machinery, where does afghan society stand? What have organisations done and where do they stand? What about governments and their policies – do return policies work for each of these actors? The mechanic of seeing ‘problems’ and offering ‘solutions’ in Afghanistan has to be de-constructed to see how policies and programmes have affected an entire society and the individuals making it. By categorizing and defining groups, new borders emerge.

This study analyzes the stock performance of bidding firms in China mainland and Hong Kong around the announcement of mergers and acquisitions transaction. The sample consists of 19 bidding firms in mainland and 11 bidding firms in Hong Kong. Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index are two proxies for market returns. The result that both average abnormal return and cumulative abnormal return to bidders in China mainland are positive whereas AAR to bidders in Hong Kong is positive in the announced date and CAR is negative during the event window (-5, +5). Compare to two regions, the announcement of mergers and acquisitions in mainland regarded as ‘good news’ to its stock price; however, it is not as good as for Hong Kong market. In the total method of payment, there are 8 transactions by stock and up to 22 deals by cash; that above 70% of acquisitions are pure cash payments in the entire sample. Through the regression model, the author finds regions of acquisitions affect the return because it is tested statistical significant at 5 percent significance level. And methods of payment do not affect abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal return to bidding firms during the event period.

M.Com. (Business Management) / After years of international isolation, South Africa has been re-admitted to the international fold. For the country's business community this entails new opportunities, as well as threats. International markets and finance opened up during the past year. It also led to South Africa signing the latest GAIT agreement. This will, enable foreign exporters to have access to the local market in the future, it will also encourage competition amongst local companies that previously mainly produced for domestic consumption. New markets will have to be exploited. These new opportunities and threats create new risks for companies entering these new markets. An important component of these new risks is the volatility in the foreign exchange market. Import and export companies receive and make payments in foreign. currencies. Unexpected movements in exchange rates can influence a company's profitability and competitiveness. Due to the size of the foreign exchange market, it is the most liquid and volatile market in the world. To minimise the risk and seize opportunities in adverse foreign exchange movements, currency exposure must be managed properly. Although integrated treasury management proves to be a successful approach in most industrial countries, it is a relatively new science, in South Africa. A large number of financial instruments exist for the hedging of foreign currency exposure. In South Africa' these options are limited, due to exchange. control regulations and this also hampers the number of hedging possibilities. Under different market conditions different hedging strategies and instruments can provide different results. There is one guarantee that a given instrument or strategy will result in the optimal hedge. It might even result in more inherent risks. Risk management is a dynamic activity within an organisation and calls for educated decisions to minimise risk and utilise opportunities.

M.Ing. (Engineering Management) / Driving sustainability, optimising return on investments and cultivating a competitive market advantage, are imperative for organisational success and growth. In order to achieve the business objectives and value proposition, effective management strategies must be efficiently implemented, monitored and controlled. Failure to do so ultimately result in; financial loss due to increased capital and operational expenditure, schedule slippages, substandard delivery on quality and depreciation of market share. This research paper investigates and discusses management strategies with the focus on integration of effective portfolio management, efficient system development life cycles and optimal project control to ultimately drive organisational sustainability and growth. With the aid of this research, optimal decisions on project/organisational venture selection can be made. Furthermore, integrating portfolio management strategies with system development life cycles and optimal project control strategies, will optimise an organisational portfolio and enhance the probability of project and organisational success.