La production d'énergie renouvelable et la consommation d'électricité dépendent largement des conditions météorologiques : température, précipitations, vent, rayonnement solaire... Ainsi, pour réaliser des études d'impact sur l'équilibre offre-demande, on peut utiliser un générateur de temps, c'est-à-dire un modèle permettant de simuler rapidement de longues séries de variables météorologiques réalistes, au pas de temps journalier. L'une des approches possibles pour atteindre cet objectif utilise les modèles de Markov caché : l'évolution des variables à modéliser est supposée dépendre d'une variable latente que l'on peut interpréter comme un type de temps. En adoptant cette approche, nous proposons dans cette thèse un modèle permettant de simuler simultanément la température, la vitesse du vent et les précipitations, en tenant compte des non-stationnarités qui caractérisent les variables météorologiques. D'autre part, nous nous intéressons à certaines propriétés théoriques des modèles de Markov caché cyclo-stationnaires : nous donnons des conditions simples pour assurer leur identifiabilité et la consistance forte de l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance. On montre aussi cette propriété de l'EMV pour des modèles de Markov caché incluant des tendances de long terme sous forme polynomiale. / Renewable energy production and electricity consumption both depend heavily on weather: temperature, precipitations, wind, solar radiation... Thus, making impact studies on the supply/demand equilibrium may require a weather generator, that is a model capable of quickly simulating long, realistic times series of weather variables, at the daily time step. To this aim, one of the possible approaches is using hidden Markov models : we assume that the evolution of the weather variables are governed by a latent variable that can be interpreted as a weather type. Using this approach, we propose a model able to simulate simultaneously temperature, wind speed and precipitations, accounting for the specific non-stationarities of weather variables. Besides, we study some theoretical properties of cyclo-stationary hidden Markov models : we provide simple conditions of identifiability and we show the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator. We also show this property of the MLE for hidden Markov models including long-term polynomial trends.

L’amélioration continue de la performance énergétique des bâtiments a été accompagnée par un développement d’outils numériques de plus en plus performants et précis. Alors que la prise en compte des phénomènes liés aux bâtiments, aux systèmes et à la météorologie est bien maîtrisée, le comportement des occupants est modélisé de manière très simplifiée par des scénarii répétitifs et des lois déterministes. L’impact des occupants sur les consommations énergétiques dans les bâtiments performants est pourtant majeur, comme en témoigne les écarts récurrents entre les résultats prédits et mesurés. Le travail de thèse propose, par l’intermédiaire d’une plateforme multi-agents et de modèles stochastiques, une mise à jour de la prise en compte de la présence des occupants et de leurs comportements sur la gestion des ouvrants, des dispositifs d’occultation, de l’éclairage et de la température de consigne de chauffage. Le champ d’application de la plateforme concerne les bâtiments de bureaux et de logements, pour des opérations neuves et de rénovation. Les modèles de comportement des occupants sont idéalement issus de campagnes de mesures in situ, d’études de laboratoire ou d’enquêtes sociologiques. La plateforme proposée est alors co-simulée avec le logiciel EnergyPlus, afin d’étudier l’influence des modèles sur les performances énergétiques. Dans la perspective de garantie de performance énergétique, ce travail contribue à la mise à jour et à la fiabilisation des outils de prédiction. / Continuous improvement of the building energy performance is associated with the development of increasingly efficient and accurate numerical tools. While the consideration of phenomena related to buildings, systems and weather is well mastered, occupants’ behaviours are modelled in a very simplified way by repetitive scenarios and deterministic laws. The impact of occupants on energy consumption in high-performance buildings is dominant, as evidenced by the recurring gaps between predicted and measured results. The thesis demonstrates, via a multi-agent platform and stochastic models, an update on the ability to model occupants’ presence, their behaviours on windows, occultation devices, artificial lighting and heating setpoint temperatures. The application of the platform applies to office and residential buildings, for new builds and refurbishments. Occupants’ behaviour models are ideally obtained from in situ surveys, laboratory studies or sociological works. The suggested platform is then co-simulated with the EnergyPlus software, to study the influence of the models on a buildings energy performance. In the perspective of energy performance guarantees, this work contributes to the updating and reliability of prediction tools.

[pt] Prospecção de petróleo usa um equipamento chamado coluna de perfuração para escavar o solo até o nível do reservatório. Este equipamento é uma longa coluna, sob rotação, composto por uma sequência de tubos de perfura ção e equipamentos auxiliares conectados. A dinâmica desta coluna é muito complexa, porque sob condições normais de operação, ela está sujeita à vibrações longitudinais, laterais e torcionais, que apresentam um acoplamento não-linear. Além disso, a estrutura está submetida a efeitos de atrito e choque devido a contatos mecânicos entre os pares broca/rocha e tubos de perfuração/parede do poço. Este trabalho apresenta um modelo mecânico-matemático para analisar uma coluna de perfuração em configuração horizontal. Este modelo usa uma teoria de viga com inércia de rotação, deformação cisalhante e acoplamento não-linear entre os três mecanismos de vibração. As equações do modelo são discretizadas utilizando o método dos elementos finitos. As incertezas dos parâmetros do modelo de interação broca-rocha são levandas em conta através de uma abordagem probabilística paramétrica, e as distribuições de probabilidades dos parâmetros aleatórios são construídas por meio do princípio da entropia máxima. Simulações numéricas são conduzidas de forma a caracterizar o comportamento dinâmico não-linear da estrutura, especialmente, da broca. Fenômenos dinâmicos inerentemente não-lineares, como stick-slip e bit-bounce, são observados nas simulações, bem como choques. Uma análise espectral mostra que, surpreendentemente, os fenômenos de stick-slip e bit-bounce são resultado do mecanismo de vibração lateral, e que os fenômenos de choque decorrem da vibração torcional. Visando aumentar a eficiência do processo de perfuração, um problema de otimização que tem como objetivo maximizar a taxa de penetração da coluna no solo, respeitando os seus limites estruturais, é proposto e resolvido. / [en] Oil prospecting uses an equipment called drillstring to drill the soil until the reservoir level. This equipment is a long column under rotation, composed by a sequence of connected drill-pipes and auxiliary equipment. The dynamics of this column is very complex because, under normal operational conditions, it is subjected to longitudinal, lateral, and torsional vibrations, which presents a nonlinear coupling. Also, this structure is subjected to friction and shocks effects due to the mechanical contacts between the pairs drill-bit/soil and drill-pipes/borehole. This work presents a mechanical-mathematical model to analyze a drillstring in horizontal configuration. This model uses a beam theory which accounts rotatory inertia, shear deformation, and the nonlinear coupling between three mechanisms of vibration. The model equations are discretized using the finite element method. The uncertainties in bit-rock interaction model parameters are taken into account through a parametric probabilistic approach, and the random parameters probability distributions are constructed by means of maximum entropy principle. Numerical simulations are conducted in order to characterize the nonlinear dynamic behavior of the structure, specially, the drill-bit. Dynamical phenomena inherently nonlinear, such as slick-slip and bit-bounce, are observed in the simulations, as well as shocks. A spectral analysis shows, surprisingly, that slick-slip and bit-bounce phenomena result from the lateral vibration mechanism, and that shock phenomena comes from the torsional vibration. Seeking to increase the efficiency of the drilling process, an optimization problem that aims to maximize the rate of penetration of the column into the soil, respecting its structural limits, is proposed and solved. / [fr] La prospection de pétrole utilise un équipement appelé tube de forage pour forer le sol jusqu au niveau du réservoir. Cet équipement est une longue colonne rotative, composée d une série de tiges de forage interconnectées et d équipements auxiliaires. La dynamique de cette colonne est très complexe car dans des conditions opérationnelles normales, elle est soumise à des vibrations longitudinales, latérales et de torsion, qui présentent un couplage non linéaire. En outre, cette structure est soumise à des effets de frottement et à des chocs dûs aux contacts mécaniques entre les paires tête de forage/sol et tube de forage/sol. Ce travail présente un modèle mécaniquemathématique pour analyser un tube de forage en configuration horizontale. Ce modèle utilise la théorie des poutres qui utilise l inertie de rotation, la déformation de cisaillement et le couplage non linéaire entre les trois mécanismes de vibration. Les équations du modèle sont discrétisées par la méthode des éléments finis. Les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle d interaction tête de forage/sol sont prises en compte par l approche probabiliste paramétrique, et les distributions de probabilité des paramètres aléatoires sont construites par le principe du maximum d entropie. Des simulations numériques sont réalisées afin de caractériser le comportement dynamique non lináaire de la structure, et en particulier, de l outil de forage. Des phénom ènes dynamiques non linéaires par nature, comme le slick-slip et le bit- bounce, sont observés dans les simulations, ainsi que les chocs. Une analyse spectrale montre étonnamment que les phénomènes slick-slip et bit-bounce résultent du mécanisme de vibration latérale, et ce phénomène de choc vient de la vibration de torsion. Cherchant à améliorer l efficacité de l opération de forage, un problème d optimisation, qui cherche à maximiser la vitesse de pénétration de la colonne dans le sol, sur ses limites structurelles, est proposé et résolu.

Cette thèse explore l’utilisation des réseaux Bayésiens (RB) afin de répondre à des problématiques de dégradation en grandes dimensions concernant des infrastructures du génie civil. Alors que les approches traditionnelles basées l’évolution physique déterministe de détérioration sont déficientes pour des problèmes à grande échelle, les gestionnaires d’ouvrages ont développé une connaissance de modèles nécessitant la gestion de l’incertain. L’utilisation de la dépendance probabiliste se révèle être une approche adéquate dans ce contexte tandis que la possibilité de modéliser l’incertain est une composante attrayante. Le concept de dépendance au sein des RB s’exprime principalement de deux façons. D’une part, les probabilités conditionnelles classiques s’appuyant le théorème de Bayes et d’autre part, une classe de RB faisant l’usage de copules et corrélation de rang comme mesures de dépendance. Nous présentons à la fois des contributions théoriques et pratiques dans le cadre de ces deux classes de RB ; les RB dynamiques discrets et les RB non paramétriques, respectivement. Des problématiques concernant la paramétrisation de chacune des classes sont également abordées. Dans un contexte théorique, nous montrons que les RBNP permet de caractériser n’importe quel processus de Markov. / This thesis explores high-dimensional deterioration-related problems using Bayesian networks (BN). Asset managers become more and more familiar on how to reason with uncertainty as traditional physics-based models fail to fully encompass the dynamics of large-scale degradation issues. Probabilistic dependence is able to achieve this while the ability to incorporate randomness is enticing.In fact, dependence in BN is mainly expressed in two ways. On the one hand, classic conditional probabilities that lean on thewell-known Bayes rule and, on the other hand, a more recent classof BN featuring copulae and rank correlation as dependence metrics. Both theoretical and practical contributions are presented for the two classes of BN referred to as discrete dynamic andnon-parametric BN, respectively. Issues related to the parametrization for each class of BN are addressed. For the discrete dynamic class, we extend the current framework by incorporating an additional dimension. We observed that this dimension allows to have more control on the deterioration mechanism through the main endogenous governing variables impacting it. For the non-parametric class, we demonstrate its remarkable capacity to handle a high-dimension crack growth issue for a steel bridge. We further show that this type of BN can characterize any Markov process.

La construction du cerveau et de ses connexions pendant le développement reste une question ouverte dans la communauté scientifique. Des efforts fructueux ont été faits pour élucider les mécanismes de la croissance axonale, tels que la guidance axonale et les molécules de guidage. Cependant, des preuves récentes suggèrent que d'autres acteurs seraient impliqués dans la croissance des neurones in vivo. Notamment, les axones se développent dans des environnements mécaniquement contraints. Ainsi, pour bien comprendre ce processus dynamique, il faut prendre en compte les mécanismes collectifs et les interactions mécaniques au sein des populations axonales. Néanmoins, les techniques pour mesurer directement cela à partir de cerveaux vivants sont aujourd'hui insuffisantes ou lourdes à mettre en œuvre. Cette thèse résulte d'une collaboration multidisciplinaire, pour faire la lumière sur le développement axonal in vivo et les morphologies complexes des axones adultes. Notre travail a été inspiré et validé à partir d'images d'axones y individuels chez la drosophile, de type sauvage et modifiés génétiquement, que nous avons segmentés et normalisés. Nous avons d'abord proposé un cadre mathématique pour l'étude morphologique et la classification des groupes axonaux. A partir de cette analyse, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que la croissance axonale dérive d'un processus stochastique et que la variabilité et la complexité des arbres axonaux résultent de sa nature intrinsèque, ainsi que des stratégies d'élongation développées pour surmonter les contraintes mécaniques du cerveau en développement. Nous avons conçu un modèle mathématique de la croissance d'un axone isolé fondé sur des chaînes de Markov gaussiennes avec deux paramètres, représentant la rigidité axonale et l'attraction du champ cible. Nous avons estimé les paramètres de ce modèle à partir de données réelles et simulé la croissance des axones à l'échelle de populations et avec des contraintes spatiales pour tester notre hypothèse. Nous avons abordé des thèmes de mathématiques appliquées ainsi que de la biologie, et dévoilé des effets inexplorés de la croissance collective sur le développement axonal in vivo. / How the brain wires up during development remains an open question in the scientific community across disciplines. Fruitful efforts have been made to elucidate the mechanisms of axonal growth, such as pathfinding and guiding molecules. However, recent evidence suggests other actors to be involved in neuron growth in vivo. Notably, axons develop in populations and embedded in mechanically constrained environments. Thus, to fully understand this dynamic process, one must take into account collective mechanisms and mechanical interactions within the axonal populations. However, techniques to directly measure this from living brains are today lacking or heavy to implement. This thesis emerges from a multidisciplinary collaboration, to shed light on axonal development in vivo and how adult complex axonal morphologies are attained. Our work is inspired and validated from images of single wild type and mutated Drosophila y axons, which we have segmented and normalized. We first proposed a mathematical framework for the morphological study and classification of axonal groups. From this analysis we hypothesized that axon growth derives from a stochastic process, and that the variability and complexity of axonal trees result from its intrinsic nature, as well as from elongation strategies developed to overcome the mechanical constraints of the developing brain. We designed a mathematical model of single axon growth based on Gaussian Markov Chains with two parameters, accounting for axon rigidity and attraction to the target field. We estimated the model parameters from data, and simulated the growing axons embedded in spatially constraint populations to test our hypothesis. We dealt with themes from applied mathematics as well as from biology, and unveiled unexplored effects of collective growth on axonal development in vivo.

Classical Continuous System Simulation (CSS) is restricted to modelling continuous flows, and therefore, cannot correctly realise a conceptual model with discrete objects. The development of Full Potential CSS solves this problem by (1) handling discrete quantities as discrete and continuous matter as continuous, (2) preserving the sojourn time distribution of a stage, (3) implementing attributes correctly, and (4) describing different types of uncertainties in a proper way. In order to apply Full Potential CSS a new software, StochSD, has been developed. This thesis evaluates StochSD's ability to model Full Potential CSS, where the points 1-4 above are included. As a test model a well-defined conceptual epidemic model, which includes all aspects of Full Potential CSS, was chosen. The study was performed by starting with a classical SIR model and then stepwise add the different aspects of the Conceptual Model. The effects of each step were demonstrated in terms of size and duration of the epidemic. Finally, the conceptual model was also realised as an Agent Based Model (ABM). The results from 10 000 replications each of the CSS and ABM models were compared and no statistical differences could be confirmed. The conclusion is that StochSD passed the evaluation.

[pt] Este trabalho analisa a propagação de uma doença epidemiológica com uma abordagem estocástica. Na análise, o número de indivíduos que cada membro infectado da população pode infectar é modelado como uma variável aleatória e o número de indivíduos infectados ao longo do tempo é modelado como um processo estocástico de ramificação. O foco do trabalho é caracterizar a influência do modelo probabilístico da variável aleatória que modela o contágio entre indivíduos na disseminação da doença e na probabilidade de extinção, e analisar a influência de uma vacinação em massa no controle da propagação da doença. A comparação é feita com base em histogramas e estatísticas amostrais do número de indivíduos infectados ao longo do tempo, como média e variância. Os modelos estatísticos referentes à parte que trata de uma população não vacinada são calculados usando simulações de Monte Carlo para 3 diferentes famílias de variáveis aleatórias: binomial, geométrica-1 e geométrica-0. Para cada família, 21 distribuições diferentes foram selecionadas e, para cada distribuição, 4000 simulações do processo de ramificação foram computadas. Os modelos estatísticos referentes a uma população parcialmente vacinada foram calculados usando simulações de Monte Carlo para a família de variável aleatória binomial. Para essa família, 21 distribuições diferentes foram selecionadas e, para cada uma delas foram escolhidas 6 diferentes percentagens de população vacinada. Para cada percentagem, foram analisadas vacinas com 4 diferentes eficácias. No total, foram realizadas 2.2 milhões de simulações, caracterizando o problema como big data. / [en] This work analyzes the spread of an epidemiological disease with a stochastic approach. In the analysis, the number of individuals that each infected member of the population can infect is modeled as a random variable and the number of infected individuals over time is modeled as a stochastic branching process. The focus of the work is to characterize the influence of the probabilistic model of the random variable that models contagion between individuals on the spread of the disease and the probability of extinction, and to analyze the influence of mass vaccination in controlling the spread of a disease. The comparison is based on histograms and sample statistics of the number of infected individuals over time, such as mean and variance. Statistical models for the chapter dealing with a vaccine free population are calculated using Monte Carlo simulations for 3 different families of random variables: binomial, geometric-1 and geometric-0. For each of the 3 families, 21 different distributions were selected and, for each distribution, 4000 simulations of the branching process were computed. Statistical models for a partially vaccinated population were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations for one family of random variable: the binomial. For it, 21 different distributions were selected and, for each of them, 6 different percentages of the vaccinated population were chosen. For each of them, 4 different vaccine efficacy were stipulated. In total, 2.2 million simulations were performed, featuring a big data problem.

[pt] O objetivo principal desta dissertação é o de buscar formas de modelar e controlar, adequadamente, condicionadores de ar de janela, pois tratam-se de máquinas que possuem um elevado consumo de energia, perdendo somente para o chuveiro elétrico. A contribuição do mesmo para a demanda do setor doméstico é da ordem de 7 %. As pesquisas de posse de eletrodomésticos mostram que somente 6 % dos domicílios têm instalada tal tipo de máquina, o que representa um expressivo potencial de crescimento para os próximos anos na aquisição deste produto. É oportuno observar que em edifí­cios comerciais, 48 % da energia é consumida com refrigeração, o que implica na necessidade de novos projetos em que centrais de grande porte sejam implantadas, visando um gasto comparativamente menor ao somatório de aparelhos individuais. / [en] This work involves the modeling of window air conditioners, with the purpose to obtain the electrical potential consume by itself, related to the medium external temperature. To obtain such goal, it was necessary the study of all features which involve their several components, aiming the conduct fitted from the parts, due to the result expected. It was made a public research with the users from these equipments. From this result, it was developed a stochastic model to be used in energy demand from a specific region, considering that the equipment / machine in use shows similar qualifications. After that, it was added to the system of machine a direct load control, which delay the compressor, obtaining an efficient working from it (saving demand), without affecting deeply normal using conditions. Finally, comparing two examples mentioned above, it was concluded that in the less powerful equipment (air conditioner) the thermal control with changed features, had good results, while more powerful equipments are more economic with direct load control. / [es] Esta disertación tiene como objetivo principal buscar formas de modelar y controlar adecuadamente, equipos de aire acondicionado de tipo ventana, por tratarse de equipos que poseen un alto consumo de energía, superado tan solo por la ducha eléctrica. La contribución de éste para la demanda del sector doméstico es del orden de 7 %. Las investigaciones sobre la pose de electrodomésticos muestran que sólo el 6 % de los domicilios tiene instalada tal tipo de máquina, lo que representa um expresivo potencial de crescimiento en la adquisición de este producto para los próximos años. Es oportuno observar que en edificios comerciales, 48 % de la energia consumida se refiere a refrigeración, lo que nos lleva a la necesidad de nuevos proyectos donde, centrales de grande porte seam implantadas, para conseguir un gasto comparativamente menor a la suma de equipos individuales.

La décroissance de la consommation électrique des dispositifs électroniques leur a permis une croissance sans précédent. Néanmoins, les éléments de stockage d’énergie (piles et batteries), bien qu’ayant initialement promus ce développement, sont devenus un frein à la prolifération des microsystèmes électroniques, de part leur durée de vie limitée ainsi que des considérations environnementales (recyclage). Pour palier à ce problème, la possibilité d’exploiter l’énergie de l’environnement immédiat du dispositif a été proposée et a fait l’objet de nombreuses recherches au cours des dernières années. En particulier, la récupération d’énergie mécanique exploitant l’effet piézoélectrique est l’une des pistes les plus étudiées actuellement pour la conception de microgénérateurs autonomes capables d’alimenter les dispositifs électroniques. Par ailleurs, dans ce domaine, il a été démontré qu’un traitement non-linéaire de la tension de sortie de l’élément actif permet d’améliorer les capacités de récupération de l’énergie vibratoire. L’une de ces approches, nommée «Synchronized Switch Harvesting on Inductor» (récupération par commutation synchronisée sur inductance) et consistant en une inversion de la tension de manière synchrone avec le déplacement, s’est montrée particulièrement efficace, pouvant augmenter la quantité d’énergie récupérée par un facteur supérieur à 10. Cette dernière conduit à un processus cumulatif qui augmente artificiellement la tension de sortie de l’élément piézoélectrique ainsi qu’à une réduction du déphasage entre tension et vitesse de déplacement ; ces deux effets conduisant à l’augmentation importante des capacités de conversion. Néanmoins, l’étude des microgénérateurs d’énergie s’est quasiment toujours faite en considérant une excitation sinusoïdale, ce qui correspond rarement à la réalité. Peu de travaux expérimentaux, et encore moins théoriques, ont été menés en considérant une excitation large bande ; ceci étant d’autant plus vrai pour les dispositifs incluant un élément non-linéaire. Ainsi l’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier le comportement des récupérateurs d’énergie piézoélectriques interfacés de manière non-linéaire. Pour ce faire, différentes approches seront envisagées, en considérant le processus de commutation comme un « auto-échantillonnage » du signal, ou en appliquant des théories d’analyse stochastique pour quantifier les performances du dispositif. Ainsi, plusieurs formes d’excitation appliquée au système pourront être analysées, permettant d’étudier la réponse du système sous des conditions plus réalistes. Toujours dans l’optique d’une implémentation réaliste, un autre objectif de cette thèse consistera à évaluer l’impact de la récupération d’énergie par couplage sismique sur la structure hôte, démontrant la nécessité d’envisager le système dans sa globalité afin de disposer de systèmes performants capables de convertir efficacement l’énergie vibratoire sous forme électrique pour un usage ultérieur. / A nonlinear interface consisting in a switching device has been proved to improve the piezoelectric harvester performance. Although existing works are usually done under single frequency excitation. practical cases are more likely broadband and random. In addition, the coupling effect due to the harvesting process is also an interesting issue to discuss. In terms of energy conversion process in seismic piezoelectric harvesters, mechanical interactions between host structure and harvester is an essential issue as well. The purpose of this work is to analysis seismic type piezoelectric harvesters from a practical perspective and to provide an optimal design of the latter. The broadband modeling based on the concepts of self-sampling and self-aliasing is described under broadband excitations for the nonlinear interface called "Periodic Switching Harvesting on Inductor" (PSHI). For this technique, the switching device is considered to be turned on at a fixed switching frequency. Then stochastic modeling is applied to have mathematical expressions that can describe broadband performance of the harvester with power spectral density (PSD) function of signals. As the switch is turned on at a given frequency, the modeling can be derived using cyclostationary theory. The effectiveness of stochastic modeling is validated with experimental measurements and time-domain iterative calculations, and the harvester performance under a band-limited noise excitation is discussed under bell-curved spectra excitations. An optimal switching frequency slightly less than twice the harvester resonant frequency is proved to have the optimal power output under the optimal resistive load. This switching frequency is however dependent on the electromechanical coupling factor of the harvester. Another part of this work discusses the interaction between the host structure and the harvester. The analysis is conducted with a Two-Degree-of-Freedom (TDOF) model. An energy conversion loop is therefore formed between the host structure and the harvester, within the harvester and the resistive load. The TDOF model is verified with Finite Element model and experimental work. An optimal mass ratio is proved to provide the maximal power output. The modeling is further applied to a practical self-powered Structural Health Monitoring system providing the best design of the harvester. A practical consideration of the broadband excitation is also introduced showing the effect of frequency detuning between the host structure and the harvester. Compared to constant force factor case, the harvester performance with a constant electromechanical coupling factor is surprisingly with very little decreases due to the mismatching of harvester and host structure resonant.

In spite of remarkable progress in molecular biology, our understanding of the dynamics and functions of intra- and inter-cellular biological networks has been hampered by their complexity. Kinetics modelling, an important type of mathematical modelling, provides a rigorous and reliable way to reveal the complexity of biological networks. In this thesis, two genetic regulatory networks have been investigated via kinetic models. In the first part of the study, a model is developed to represent the transcriptional regulatory network essential for the circadian rhythms in Drosophila. The model incorporates the transcriptional feedback loops revealed so far in the network of the circadian clock (PER/TIM and VRI/PDP1 loops). Conventional Hill functions are not used to describe the regulation of genes, instead the explicit reactions of binding and unbinding processes of transcription factors to promoters are modelled. The model is described by a set of ordinary differential equations and the parameters are estimated from the in vitro experimental data of the clocks’ components. The simulation results show that the model reproduces sustained circadian oscillations in mRNA and protein concentrations that are in agreement with experimental observations. It also simulates the entrainment by light-dark cycles, the disappearance of the rhythmicity in constant light and the shape of phase response curves resembling that of experimental results. The model is robust over a wide range of parameter variations. In addition, the simulated E-box mutation, perS and perL mutants are similar to that observed in the experiments. The deficiency between the simulated mRNA levels and experimental observations in per01, tim01 and clkJrk mutants suggests some differences in the model from reality. Finally, a possible function of VRI/PDP1 loops is proposed to increase the robustness of the clock. In the second part of the study, the sources of intrinsic noise and the influence of extrinsic noise are investigated on an intracellular viral infection system. The contribution of the intrinsic noise from each reaction is measured by means of a special form of stochastic differential equation, the chemical Langevin equation. The intrinsic noise of the system is the linear sum of the noise in each of the reactions. The intrinsic noise arises mainly from the degradation of mRNA and the transcription processes. Then, the effects of extrinsic noise are studied by means of a general form of stochastic differential equation. It is found that the noise of the viral components grows logarithmically with increasing noise intensities. The system is most susceptible to noise in the virus assembly process. A high level of noise in this process can even inhibit the replication of the viruses. In summary, the success of this thesis demonstrates the usefulness of models for interpreting experimental data, developing hypotheses, as well as for understanding the design principles of genetic regulatory networks.