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Estratégias de preço na difusão de inovação: simulação baseada em agentes aplicado ao mercado brasileiro de carros elétricos / Pricing strategies at innovation diffusion process: Agent-based model simulation applied to Brazilians market of electric carPaulo Yun Cha 29 January 2016 (has links)
No contexto dos sistemas complexos, o presente trabalho investiga 3 estratégias de precificação:(1)desnatação,(2) penetração e (3)aprendizado, na difusão de carros elétricos em diferentes contextos.Por meio da modelagem baseada em agentes com 100.000 entidades autônomas, o primeiro modelo testa três situações relacionados à demanda energética:(1)desabastecimento,(2)estabilidade e (3)crescimento moderado da demanda.A forte escassez de energia estimulou a rápida migração dos agentes aos carros elétricos. As três estratégias de precificação exibiram resultados similares em termos de faturamento e % na participação do mercado, no entanto a estratégia de penetração foi capaz de capturar uma parcela maior do mercado em menor tempo.No segundo modelo,3 diferentes comportamentos sociais são aplicadas aos agentes: (1)conservador,(2)racional e (3) social,em diferentes proporções afim de avaliar a influência da composição social na dinâmica difusora.No que concerne ao faturamento e % na participação do mercado, o segundo modelo detectou diferenças estatisticamente significativas para cada estratégia de precificação.Em sociedades proeminentemente conservadoras, as três estratégias não apresentaram indícios de diferença significativa no tocante relação ao faturamento,% na participação final do mercado e taxa de adoção média.Sociedades compostas majoritariamente por agentes racionais, apresentaram a mais rápida convergência aos carros elétricos,sendo este, o veículo mais caro.Isto se deve à percepção positiva do custo/benefício ao longo prazo.O maior faturamento é proveniente das sociedades compostas preponderantemente por agentes com atitudes sociais dado à compra e troca mais recorrente entre diferentes veículos no decorrer das interações.A estratégia de desnatação demonstrou maior versatilidade ao exibir performance superior com maior regularidade no que tange em faturamento em todas as composições sociais testadas.A estratégia de penetração exibiu índices maiores em taxa de adoção e faturamento em redes compostas integralmente por agentes com comportamentos sociais iguais,mas não foi possível detectar este padrão em redes parciais. Por fim, a estratégia de aprendizado apresentou o menor faturamento em todos os cenários, no entanto, sua taxa de adoção similar à estratégia de penetração, pode ser a estratégia de precificação mais crível e eficiente para empresas iniciantes / In the context of complex systems,the following research investigated 3 pricing strategies:(1)skimming,(2)penetration and (3)learning, at electric car diffusion in several different scenarios. Through the agent-based modelling with 100.000 autonomous entities, the first model tested 3 situations related to energy demand:(1)severe shortage,(2)stability and (3)moderate growing of demand. The strong shortage of energy forced an fast-paced migration of agents towards the electric cars. The 3 strategies showed up similar results in terms revenues and market share, however the penetration strategy was able to capture a large part of the market faster than others. At the second model, 3 different social behaviors were implemented in each agent:(1)conservative,(2)rational and (3)social,in different proportions in order to assess social composition and its influence in the innovation diffusion process. Revenue and market share as concerned,the second model detected significant statistic difference for each pricing strategy. For societies predominantly conservative, all strategies did not show significant differences evidences regarding to revenue,market share and average adoption rate. Societies comprised mostly of rational agents presented the quickest convergence to electric cars, which it is the most expensive car. This is because a positive perception of benefits over cost in the long term.The largest revenue were derived from societies primarily composed of agents with social behaviors due to recurrent purchase and exchange between different vehicles over the interactions. Skimming strategy demonstrated greater versatility by displaying superior performance more regularly in terms of revenue in every social composition simulated. Penetration strategy exhibited highest rates of adoption and revenue in social networks composed entirely of agents with same social behavior, but it was not possible to detect such pattern at partial social networks. Finally, the learning strategy reported the lowest revenues at every scenario, none the less, its rate of adoption was equivalent to penetrations strategy rates, this strategy could be the most feasible and efficient to startups and small companies
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Estudo da propagação de postagens de notícias no Twitter / Study of the propagation of news postings on TwitterRogério Olímpio da Silva 29 September 2017 (has links)
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar o resultado da análise e identificação de padrões e comportamentos de postagens na rede social Twitter monitorando um termo específico em um período definido de tempo. Após a extração e tratamento dos dados obtidos do Twitter, explicitando dentre as postagens quais são oriundas de usuários geradores de notícias, foram analisadas informações de topologia da rede de usuários do experimento, inclusive com o detalhamento das informações de propagação e duração das postagens: dados e comportamentos os quais buscamos reproduzir utilizando simulação por agentes / The present work aims to present the result of the analysis and identification of patterns and behaviors of Twitter posts monitoring a specific term in a period. After the extraction and treatment of the data obtained from Twitter, emphasizing among the posts which are generated from news agency users, were analyzed the topology information about the network of users of the experiment, including details of propagation information and duration of the posts: data and behaviors that we seek to reproduce using agent simulation
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Dinâmica da difusão de tecnologias da informação e comunicação nas economias desenvolvidas e em desenvolvimentoGewehr, Adriano Cristian 20 July 2016 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2016-07-20 / Nenhuma / O funcionamento do progresso tecnológico exige a compreensão da dinâmica da difusão de inovações. A difusão consiste na propagação de uma inovação. Sem difusão não existe a inovação, uma vez que são conceitos imbricados. As tecnologias da informação e comunicação (TIC) revolucionaram as estruturas de negócios das firmas e das indústrias, e são fundamentais para a difusão de outras inovações. Considerando tal cenário, para melhor compreensão de trajetórias tecnológicas dos países, releva compreender a dinâmica da difusão de inovações. Esta pesquisa pretende, portanto, responder ao seguinte problema: qual é a dinâmica do processo de difusão da tecnologia da internet e da telefonia móvel nos países desenvolvidos e nos países em desenvolvimento? Com o objetivo de compreender a referida dinâmica, foram utilizados os dados empíricos de consumo destas duas tecnologias para os grupos de países do G7 e do BRICS respectivamente, em um recorte temporal de 1990 a 2014. Aplicou-se o modelo matemático de Bass (1969), gerando curvas de consumo ajustadas pelo método dos mínimos quadrados. Como principais resultados destacam-se: i) a dinâmica de difusão destas duas tecnologias confirma o comportamento proposto por Rogers (1962), de uma curva em formato “S” ao longo do tempo representando as adoções pela população; ii) o modelo ajustou as curvas de difusão destas tecnologias com baixos índices de erros, que ao longo de 25 anos ficam entre 0,2% e 5,1%; iii) países desenvolvidos tendem a ter mais adotantes inovadores na população; iv) adotantes imitadores exercem maior influência na adoção de inovações; v) não há uma relação direta entre a velocidade e o nível de desenvolvimento das economias estudadas; vi) os países desenvolvidos analisados atingiram o ponto de inflexão no processo de difusão antes que as economias em desenvolvimento; vii) algumas nações atingirão apenas pouco mais da metade de sua população com acesso à internet. Nas economias em desenvolvimento, além da adoção tardia, o processo para capturar novos adotantes por ano é lento, chegando ao ponto de que, enquanto os países desenvolvidos já estão atingindo saturação, na maioria das economias em desenvolvimento analisadas, estas tecnologias ainda apresentam potencial capacidade para difusão. Por fim, destaca-se que, se estas duas tecnologias tendem a contribuir para a difusão de outras inovações, presume-se que o problema do progresso tecnológico retardado tende a se agravar para as economias em desenvolvimento. / The operation of technological progress requires understanding the dynamics of innovation diffusion. The diffusion consists in the propagation of an innovation. No there innovation diffusion, once they are imbricated concepts. Information and communication technologies (ICT) have revolutionized the business structures of firms and industries, and are fundamental to the diffusion of other innovations. Considering such a scenario, to better understand technological trajectories of the countries, reference to understand the dynamics of innovation diffusion. This research therefore aims to answer the following question: what is the dynamics of the diffusion process of internet technology and mobile telephony in developed countries and in developing countries? In order of understanding the dynamics that, empirical consumption data of these two technologies to the groups of the G7 countries and the BRICS were used respectively, in a temporal cut of 1990 to 2014. It was applied to the mathematical model of Bass (1969) generating consumption curve adjusted by the least squares method. The main results are: i) the dynamics of the diffusion of these two technologies confirms the behavior proposed by Rogers (1962), a curve in "S" shape over time representing adoptions by the population; ii) the model adjusted the diffusion curves of these technologies with low error rates, which over 25 years are between 0.2 and 5.1%; iii) developed countries tend to have the most innovative adopters in the population; iv) imitators adopters exert greater influence on the adoption of innovations; v) there is no direct relationship between the speed and the level of development of the economies studied; vi) the developed countries analyzed reached the tipping point in the diffusion process before developing economies; vii) some nations will reach just over half of its population with internet access. In developing economies, in addition to the late adoption, the process to capture new adopters per year is slow to the point that while the developed countries are already reaching saturation in most developing economies analyzed, these technologies also have the potential capacity for the diffusion. Finally, it is emphasized that if these two technologies tend to contribute to the diffusion of other innovations, it is assumed that the problem of retarded technological progress tends to aggravate for the developing economies.
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Comparing the Effectiveness of Masters-Prepared and Non-Masters-Prepared Nurse LeadersChari, Subha Narasimha 01 January 2017 (has links)
The complex nature of healthcare requires nurse leaders to be skilled in professional practice, communication, teamwork, and problem solving to improve staff satisfaction and patient outcomes. The American Association of Colleges of Nursing and Institute of Medicine promotes graduate education for nurse leaders to enhance the delivery of quality care to the nation's diverse patient populations. Guided by the diffusion of innovation theory, this project explored the differences in nursing care hours, staff turnover, nurse quality indicators, as well as leadership characteristics on units lead by masters-prepared and non-masters-prepared nurses. Forty-eight nurse leaders completed the impact of graduate education among nurse leaders (IGENL) survey addressing perceptions of their ability to change practice, teamwork, communication, and problem-solving skills. Staffing reports, Nurse Quality Indicators (NQI), and Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) data were collected from 34 hospital units. Data were summarized and t tests were conducted to examine the differences in NQI and HCAHPS data from units lead by nurses with and without a graduate degree. No significant differences were noted in these measures. In the IGENL survey data, the nurse leaders with a graduate degree had significantly higher scores on the leadership characteristic subscales of professional practice, communication and teamwork, and problem solving than did those without. The outcome of this project can contribute to positive social change within healthcare organizations by supporting the pursuit of graduate education for nurse leaders, which could enhance leadership attributes and subsequently improve staff satisfaction and patient outcomes.
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Online Language Acquisition and Leadership in Higher Education-Governed Intensive English Programs: A Rasch-Based Diffusion of Innovation StudyDecker, James Brandon 01 January 2019 (has links)
Research has indicated accredited, U.S. higher education-governed intensive English programs (IEPs) often struggle financially due to a scarcity of resources (namely students) because of political and global economic factors and increased competition (ICEF Monitor, 2017; IIE, 2017; Ladika, 2018; Soppelsa, 2015). However, few IEPs advertise online language acquisition (OLA) courses despite the increase in online study methods at the higher education institutes governing the programs and its use by competitors. The purpose of this study was to determine the status and extent of OLA diffusion in U.S. IEPs, how IEP directors and faculty perceived OLA, and whether they perceived themselves to be the leaders in its diffusion.
Drawing on Rogers’ (1962) diffusion of innovation framework to inform the instrument methodology, this study employed a quantitative, cross-sectional survey. The study used the Rasch measurement model (1960) as the framework informing the instrument’s design and analysis.
All 249 executive directors and 2,492 faculty in the 249 accredited, higher education-governed IEPs were invited to participate in the study, and 328 directors and faculty from 121 IEPs opted to do so. Major findings revealed 40.5% had experimented with online courses within the last five years, and 24.8% offered it currently. The Winsteps dimensionality analysis showed each of the six innovation characteristics performed as a separate strand supporting the dimension of OLA adoption potential. The Wright map and item measures revealed respondents perceived OLA visibility (1.52 logits) as the most difficult-to-endorse characteristic followed by complexity (0.48 logits). The least challenging characteristic was articulated benefits (-0.39 logits), and the easiest item was technology confidence (-1.21 logits) followed by technology clusters (-0.65 logits). Regarding leadership in promoting OLA adoption, 53.2% of the sample claimed they were involved in its leadership at some level, and 31.1% reported leadership involvement at institutes currently lacking online English courses.
This study suggests respondents found OLA to be beneficial for their IEP with articulable results. Cost and technology confidence were not viewed as prohibitive, but respondents lacked confidence that OLA would lead to increased enrollment. Because of the high level of OLA leadership in their IEP, the adoption of online language courses appears to be moving in an upward trajectory.
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Examining the Relationship Between Communication Apprehension and Individual Innovativeness in ManagersCampagnola, Michelle 01 January 2017 (has links)
Communicative challenges that hinder managerial engagement in social networks can impede innovation adoption and thereby damage the financial performance and competitiveness of a firm. The purpose of this correlational study was to examine the relationship between communication apprehension (CA) and individual innovativeness in managers. The focus of the research questions was determining if a relationship exists between these variables before and after controlling for demographic characteristics. With diffusion of innovation theory as the theoretical framework, this research involved an attempt to address how adoption categories relate to varying degrees of CA. One hundred and five American-based owner-executives, senior managers, and middle managers completed 2 preexisting survey instruments on the Internet measuring individual perceptions of CA and individual innovativeness. Results from a Pearson correlation analysis indicated that a significant negative correlation existed between CA and individual innovativeness. A multiple regression analysis showed that CA and individual innovativeness were negatively correlated after controlling for gender, age, and education level. Furthermore, participants' level of education was negatively related to both total CA score and public speaking CA score. Leaders may apply these findings to achieve positive social change by using tools to reduce CA in managers. Such initiatives could lead to greater social confidence in managers, improved organizational performance, and more meaningful social engagement in the innovations that continue to shape the world.
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The Survival of Healthcare in Rural TexasCook, Destin 01 January 2018 (has links)
Over 80 rural hospitals have closed in the United States since 2010, representing about half of all hospital closures during this period, and another 600-700 rural hospitals are at risk of closing shortly. The purpose of this qualitative exploratory multiple case study, which was based on transformational leadership and diffusion of innovation theories, was to gain a common understanding of financial problems and operational inefficiencies that may be impacting rural hospital leaders in the state of Texas. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews with 4 senior healthcare leaders from 3 separate regions in Texas. Data analysis included compiling, sorting, fragmenting, and reassembling of the data into 19 common themes. The 4 most common themes included poor payer mix and uninsured population, inconsistency with evidence-based measures, costs of providing care exceeding reimbursement, and the movement of inpatient procedures to outpatient. The study findings may help advance the practice of leadership in both rural and urban healthcare. This study may contribute to positive social change by creating awareness of how rural hospitals are in danger of closures, and how these closures can affect urban hospitals and overall quality of life for rural Americans.
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Hoppa på tåget eller stå kvar vid stationen? : Organisationers användning av sociala medier / Get on the train or remain at the station? : Organizations' use of social mediaJosefsson, Sigrid, Sundström, Elin January 2010 (has links)
<p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong><p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate and clarify some of the factors that influence organizations to adopt or reject the social media, and if the emergence of social media influenced the organization's communication.</p><p><strong><p>Metohodology:</p></strong></p><p>A qualitative methodology has been used to execute the study. The source has been semi structured interviews with chosen representatives from several organizations.</p><p><strong><p>Theoretical perspective:</p></strong></p><p>The theoretical basis for the execution of the methodology is based on the provisional theoretical demarcation uses and gratifications theory. For analysis diffusion of innovations theory is applied.</p><p><strong><p>Emperical findings:</p></strong></p><p>The empirical material includes interviews with representatives from twelve selected organizations, defined as companies in the industry and authorities, in seven different industries.</p><p><strong><p>Conclusion:</p><p> </p></strong>The main factors affecting an adoption of social media is the organization’s open structure, the ability to see opportunities with social media and that they are seen as a natural part of development in the communications field. The main factors affecting a rejection of social media is ignorance, the organization's governance and that there must be a need that social media can fill. Neither users nor non-users believe that social media can replace traditional media. They are a complement to existing media, where the oral personal communication is superior to other forms.</p></p></p>
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Hoppa på tåget eller stå kvar vid stationen? : Organisationers användning av sociala medier / Get on the train or remain at the station? : Organizations' use of social mediaJosefsson, Sigrid, Sundström, Elin January 2010 (has links)
Purpose:The purpose of this paper is to investigate and clarify some of the factors that influence organizations to adopt or reject the social media, and if the emergence of social media influenced the organization's communication. Metohodology: A qualitative methodology has been used to execute the study. The source has been semi structured interviews with chosen representatives from several organizations. Theoretical perspective: The theoretical basis for the execution of the methodology is based on the provisional theoretical demarcation uses and gratifications theory. For analysis diffusion of innovations theory is applied. Emperical findings: The empirical material includes interviews with representatives from twelve selected organizations, defined as companies in the industry and authorities, in seven different industries. Conclusion: The main factors affecting an adoption of social media is the organization’s open structure, the ability to see opportunities with social media and that they are seen as a natural part of development in the communications field. The main factors affecting a rejection of social media is ignorance, the organization's governance and that there must be a need that social media can fill. Neither users nor non-users believe that social media can replace traditional media. They are a complement to existing media, where the oral personal communication is superior to other forms.
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Avaliação da aplicabilidade de dispositivos de correção de defeitos do septo atrial no tratamento endoscópico de deiscências totais crônicas de coto brônquico / Evaluation of cardiac septal defects closure device in endoscopic treatment of chronic total bronchial stump fistulasPaulo Rogerio Scordamaglio 16 February 2016 (has links)
As fístulas broncopleurais habitualmente decorrem de procedimentos cirúrgicos de ressecção pulmonar por diversas etiologias, com incidência na literatura de 0% a 28%, e mortalidade de 16% a 72%, sendo mais frequente em homens, e nos casos de pneumonectomia do que em lobectomia. As deiscências totais de coto brônquico apresentam indicação de tratamento cirúrgico, porém a condição clínica destes pacientes geralmente é precária com alto risco anestésico e cirúrgico. Os tratamentos endoscópicos de fístulas broncopleurais até então descritos foram utilizados apenas em fístulas parciais menores que 8 milímetros. Objetivo: Este estudo propõe-se a avaliar a viabilidade do tratamento endoscópico de fístulas totais de coto brônquico utilizando o dispositivo oclusor de defeitos septais cardíacos Occlutech-Fígulla®. Casuística e métodos: Foram incluídos pacientes com fistula broncopleural total secundária a ressecção pulmonar. Os pacientes foram submetidos inicialmente à broncoscopia para avaliação e medida da fístula e a uma cintilografia pulmonar de inalação para documentação do padrão inicial de vazamento. A colocação do dispositivo foi feita através da broncoscopia realizada sob sedo-analgesia com o paciente em ventilação espontânea com suplementação de oxigênio. Os pacientes foram acompanhados durante 12 meses e avaliados quanto à cobertura do dispositivo por tecido cicatricial, fechamento do trajeto fistuloso e desenvolvimento de complicações relacionadas como o deslocamento do dispositivo, lesões de estruturas adjacentes e desenvolvimento de infecção. As análises descritivas dos dados quantitativos com distribuição normal foram apresentadas através das médias acompanhadas dos respectivos desvios padrão. Os dados sem distribuição normal foram apresentados através de suas medianas com os respectivos intervalos interquartil 25-75%. A análise inferencial utilizou a Análise de Variância de Medidas Repetidas para os dados com distribuição normal e os testes não-paramétricos Anova de Friedman para os dados que não apresentavam distribuição normal. Foi considerada uma probabilidade de erro do tipo I (alfa) de 0,05. Resultados: Foram selecionados nove pacientes com predomínio do sexo masculino (77,8%), com média de idade de 45 ±11,1 anos, com ressecções motivadas em sua maioria por sequelas de doença infecciosa (78%), com predomínio de pneumonectomia direita (66,6%), com fístulas que apresentavam diâmetro de 6 a 17 mm. Do grupo de 9 pacientes tratados tivemos três casos de fechamento completo, dois casos de fechamento parcial, duas falhas sendo uma por deslocamento e retirada do dispositivo e outra por retirada ao término do período de seguimento com permanência dos sintomas e dois óbitos não relacionados. Durante o período de acompanhamento não evidenciamos complicações infecciosas ou lesão de estruturas adjacentes relacionadas à permanência do dispositivo. Conclusão: O dispositivo para tratamento de defeitos do septo atrial pode ser uma alternativa no tratamento endoscópico de fístulas totais de coto brônquico, funcionando como tratamento definitivo em alguns casos e servindo como suporte nos pacientes que aguardam melhora das condições clínicas para uma intervenção cirúrgica tardia com menor risco. Não foram detectados eventos graves como infecções ou lesão vascular relacionados à presença do dispositivo / Bronchopleural fistulas are possible complications following lung resection procedures for different etiologies. The reported incidence is 0 % to 28%, and the related mortality is 16% to 72%. More frequently in men and pneumonectomy cases than lobectomy cases. Total dehiscence of the bronchial stump should be treated by surgical interventions; however, the clinical status of these patients is generally poor with high anesthetic and surgical risks. Endoscopic treatment of bronchopleural fistulas previously described were used only in 8mm or smaller partial fistulas. Objective To evaluate the endoscopic treatment of total bronchial stump fistulas using the Occlutech - Fígulla®, a device used to close cardiac septal defects. Patients and methods: We select patients with total bronchial stump fistula. Patients underwent bronchoscopy for local fistula evaluation and an inhalation lung scintigraphy for the initial leak parameter documentation. The placement of the device was made by bronchoscopy performed under sedation - analgesia with the patient in spontaneous ventilation with oxygen supplementation. Patients were followed for 12 months and assessed for scar tissue coverage device, fistula closure and development of related complications such as displacement device, adjacent structures lesions and infection. The descriptive analysis of quantitative data with normal distribution were presented through the mean along with the related standard deviations. Non-normal distribution data were presented by their medians with their respective interquartile ranges 25-75 %. The inferential analysis used Repeated Measures Analysis of Variance for data with normal distribution and non-parametric tests of Friedman ANOVA to data with nonnormal distribution. It was considered an error probability of a type I (alfa) 0.05. Results: This study evaluated nine patients with a males predominance (77.8% ) with mean age of 45 ± 11.1 years with resections for sequelae of infectious disease (78%), predominantly right pneumonectomy (66.6% ), with fistulas diameter ranging from 6 to 17 mm. The group of 9 patients had three cases of complete closure, two cases of partial closure, two failures one per displacement and removal of the device another for withdrawal at the end of follow-up with persistence of symptoms and two unrelated death. During the follow-up period was not detect complications such as infections or injury to adjacent structures related to the device. Conclusion: The device for treatment of atrial septal defects can be an alternative to the endoscopic treatment of total fistula bronchial stump, functioning as definitive treatment in some cases and serving as a support for patients awaiting improvement of clinical conditions for a later surgical intervention with lower risk. No severe events were detected as infections or vascular injury related to the device
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