本文將探討當一販售耐久財的獨佔廠商面臨到商品產量限制以及市場上存在著個人需求不確定性時的最適訂價模式。此外本文也透過分析不同時期消費者所面臨的每期使用價格變化來說明當消費者存在個人需求不確定性時，廠商於兩期使用價格的設定會出現異於Coasian耐久財模型的兩期使用價格設定。當商品效用在第二期出現壞結果時低於一定標準時，廠商兩期使用價格訂價模式將出現第一期使用價格下降而第二期使用價格反而上升的現象，甚至可能出現第二期使用價格高於第一期使用價格的現象。而這與Coasian耐久財模型所呈現的兩期使用價格訂價模式是大不相同。 我們發現當廠商採取非價格承諾的訂價策略且廠商產能處於一定的數值時，廠商採取讓消費者面臨限量風險的訂價策略可獲得較Coasian耐久財模型更高的利潤。由此可見產能限制將可使廠商在採取非價格承諾的訂價策略下仍能透過讓消費者面臨限量的風險來保有獨佔力並且賺取較高利潤。 / This paper will investigate the best pricing strategy for durable goods monopolist with capacity constraint and individual demand uncertainty. We also introduce the concept of “per-period usage price” and illustrate the difference between traditional Coasian durable goods pricing strategy and ours. When the product utility turns out to be a bad outcome and its value is lower than the certain standard, first period’s per-period usage price will decrease while second period’s per-period usage price will increase simultaneously. This consequence is totally different from Coasian durable goods model. When monopolist use non-commitment pricing strategy and face capacity constraint, monopolist will set the price for exerting the risk of rationing to consumers which will help monopolist gain higher profit than Coasian durable goods model. This shows that capacity constraint will help monopolist keep monopoly power and gain higher profit.

本文探討匯率不確定性與台灣對中國大陸出口之關係，模型中參考Cushman (1986) 觀點加入第三國變數之效果。研究期間以1997年至2010年之季資料，同時考慮總合資料以及部門別資料，並以GARCH估計實質匯率波動性。第三國則利用出口近似度的計算選擇了前四大競爭國，分別為南韓，日本，馬來西亞及新加坡。此外，部門則以HS二碼分類選擇出口至中國大陸前四大之部門，包括機械與電子、精密儀器、橡膠與塑膠類產品及化學品。 本文檢定變數是否有單根。若有單根則進一步檢定這些變數是否存在共整合關係。在確定存在共整合關係後，利用完全修正最小平方法及誤差修正模型進行估計。本文實證結果顯示：匯率不確定性對出口量有負向之影響關係。就部門而言，本文探討的四個部門之結果也反映匯率不確定性對出口具有負向影響，但是以電子產品及塑膠橡膠類之影響最為顯著。 / This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and Taiwan’s exports to Mainland China. In the empirical model, the third country effects suggested by Cushman (1986) are considered. GARCH model is employed to estimate real exchange rate volatility. Both aggregate and sectoral quarterly data covering 1997 to 2010 are used in our sample. The third countries are determined by export similarity. The top 4 countries with the highest degree of export similarity are chosen, including South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore. In addition, the top 4 Taiwan’s exporting sectors are examined respectively, including machinery and electronic equipment, precision equipment, rubber and plastics, chemicals industries. We first test for unit root of the variables used in the study, and then check the existence of co-integration between the variables with unit root. After confirming the existence of co-integration relationship, we use FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to estimate the coefficients. Our empirical results suggest that there is a significantly negative effect of exchange rate volatility on Taiwan’s total exports. They also indicate that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and Taiwan’s sectoral exports. Among the top 4 exporting sectors, exchange rate volatility tends to have higher impacts on the machinery and electronic industry as well as chemical industry.

本文建立模型，加入許多現實社會存在的現象，包括有限責任限制、景氣榮枯的不確定性以及將決策「階段化」，以探討廠商的產出與逃稅的行為。在逃漏稅行為方面，引入有限責任可能使廠商的逃稅決策呈現「兩極化」。在產出行為方面，未來景氣的不確定性將使利潤稅不具中立性。在無景氣考量下，不論有無有限責任，也不論決策是否具「階段性」，利潤稅對產出仍具中立性。當廠商必須面臨景氣的不確定性且為一風險趨避者的時候，在兩階段決策模型之下，不論有無有限責任的存在，利潤稅的中立性都不會成立。且若存在有限責任，其產量會比不存在有限責任的產量還多，在階段模型下，引入有限責任仍使廠商傾向採取風險較大的行為。

本文目的在於探討匯率不確定性對台灣出口波動之影響。本文應用Barkoulas et al.(2002)理論架構，利用台灣1989年至2007年的月資料。實證結果發現：美元、日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於台灣出口美、日兩國的數量並無明顯的影響。美元兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以美國為進口國的台灣出口波動則有正向的影響；日圓兌新台幣的匯率波動對於以日本為進口國的台灣出口波動卻沒有顯著影響。本文認為：造成美元匯率波動主要支配力量，來自於貨幣政策制定者掌握之資訊優勢差異；造成日圓匯率波動的來源則無主要支配力量的存在。造成此種結果的原因在於貨幣政策制定者長久以來所建立的政策可信度所致，削減了造成美元匯率波動的另外二股力量。因此，新台幣兌換美元匯率波動取決於貨幣政策制定者掌握經濟真實狀況的能力與其貨幣政策方向。 / This paper investigates into the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on Taiwan export volatility. Under the theoretical framework of Barkoulas et al.(2002) and the empirical monthly data of Taiwan exports from 1989 to 2007, it is summarized that the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD and NTD/JPY had no effect on the Taiwan exporting volume toward U.S. or Japan. However, the exchange rate volatility of NTD/USD did have positive effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to U.S. while that of NTD/JPY had no significant effect on the export volatility of Taiwan to Japan.It is argued that the dominant source of NTD/USD exchange rate volatility resulted from the variance of monetary authorities’ information advantage. On the other hand, it exists no such a dominant source in NTD/JPY exchange rate volatility.

我國過去以出口為導向的經貿政策，帶動了持續穩定的經濟成長並累積鉅額的外匯存底。近年來隨著經濟發展的日益蓬勃，國內的投資環境面臨了前所未有的衝擊；廠商為求企業之經營成長及競爭優勢，無不致力於降低生產成本，擴大市場規模，因此形成一股前往海外投資的熱潮。本文主要目的是利用「或有請求權法-購入選擇權(CallOption)」訂價理論分析國內出口廠商面對各項投資環境之不確定性因素衝擊時，如何決定「對外投資之最適時機」。因此，本文模型具有下列幾特點：（一）以個別廠商之觀點，探討對外投資之最適時機。（二）探討投資國及地主國生產成本相對變動時，對外投資最適時機之影響。（三）探討投資國及地主國外匯匯率變動時，對外投資最適時機之影響。（四）探討投資地主國享有對外優惠關稅待遇時，對本國廠商對外投資最適時機之影響。（五）探討廠商之研究發展成果與對外投資最適時機之影響。

蒯因(W.V. quine)在語言哲學的發展上 , 可說是當代一大重鎮. 他對傳 統上在一般經驗論者中 , 對分析與綜合(analytic-synthetic)語句的區 分以及證實說(verificationism)提出嚴厲的批判,這可算是語言哲學中的 一大轉變 . 他的整體論(holism), 理論之不可由經驗完全限定 (unederdetermination of experiences) , 物理主義(physicalism) ,自然主義(naturalism) , 翻譯的不確定性(indeteriminacy of translation),指設的不可測度(inscrutability of references),存有學 的相對性(ontological relativity) 等理論 , 試圖以( 自然) 科學, 或說廣義物理理論作為我們對知識探求的基礎. 本文所要處理的問題是: 在翻譯的不確定性理論中, 蒯因所用的理論是什麼 ? 它是否有效而可以 成立 ? 其論證間是否各自獨立或有相互關係? In the development of philosophy of language, Quine is a very important philosopher. He criticized the traditional empiricism for the analytic-synthetic division and verificationism, this is an important milestone in the history of philosophy of language. He exhausts the whole theory, like holism, underdetermination of experiences ,physicalism, naturalized epsitemology, indetermincy of translation, and inscrutability of reference or ontological relativity, and so on. He tried to use sciences or broader physics to be the base of our researching for knowledge. The topic in this paper is about "indeterminacy of translation", we want to know Quine's arguments, the validity of these arguments, the relations between these arguments, and potential questions of this doctrine.

本論文採用實地實證研究，以一家專業晶圓代工廠商為研究對象，詳細分析在晶圓代工的製造環境下，產品多樣性及製造彈性對生產品質、生產週期時間、設備生產力與生產成本之影響。不同於過去研究，以外部彈性(例如：產品組合彈性、新產品彈性等)為研究重心，本論文以內部彈性為研究範疇，涵蓋機器彈性與路徑彈性兩種彈性型態，據以彌補現存製造彈性文獻的缺口。 關於產品多樣性與製造彈性對生產績效與生產成本之直接影響，本論文首先以等候理論與整數規劃模型為基礎，加入實地環境特性的考量，推導研究假說與實證模型；繼而，蒐集來自個案公司6個月的詳細生產資料，包括兩類資料型態：機台水準(machine-level)與生產批量水準(lot-level)進行實證分析。綜合理論模型與實證分析結果，本論文發現：在晶圓代工的製造環境中，由於製程高度自動化之故，產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響並不顯著，但因研發與工程實驗所產生的環境變異性則對生產績效具有顯著的負面影響；在製造彈性方面，吾人則發現路徑彈性不僅有助於生產週期時間的縮短，也對品質與成本績效具有顯著的正向影響，而機器彈性雖有助於設備生產力的提昇與生產成本的降低，但對生產品質則有顯著的負面影響，此外，本研究也發現：製造彈性與設備生產力、生產週期時間及生產成本之間存在非線性關係，並呈現報酬遞減的趨勢，隱含：極大化製造彈性並非最佳，有限的彈性水準即可達到最大的彈性利益。 考慮製造彈性的價值高低與環境不確定性密切相關，本研究進一步採用路徑分析檢視產品多樣性、製造彈性、環境不確定性與生產績效之間的關聯性，基於本研究以內部彈性為研究範疇，並以製造環境為研究客體，依據生產管理文獻，由製程時間變異性、到達時間變異性及產品需求變異性三項指標定義製造環境的不確定性。實證結果顯示：產品多樣性主要係透過環境不確定性間接影響生產績效，而機器彈性與路徑彈性則有助於調和內部不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，進而達成生產績效的提昇。本論文之分析結果隱含：過去管理會計研究認為產品多樣性對生產績效的影響主要來自於批量作業活動(batch-level activities)與產品支援活動(product-sustaining activities)的增加，而忽略產品多樣性對環境不確定性的影響，可能低估產品多樣性的攸關成本，尤其在一高利用率與高度動態的生產環境中，產品多樣性透過環境不確定性對生產績效的間接影響可能大於產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響；另一方面，本研究指出：在一動態環境中，廠商可透過製造彈性的提昇，降低環境不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，但最適彈性水準的決定則須取決於製造彈性與其他生產績效衡量之間的函數關係。 / This thesis reports the results of a field empirical study examining the impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production quality, cycle time, equipment productivity, and production cost within the context of semiconductor wafer fabrication facilities. To fill the gap in existing research, I attempt to study internal flexibility, rather than external flexibility (e.g., product flexibility, mix flexibility). Two types of internal flexibility are selected, which are machine flexibility and routing flexibility. Using both machine-level and lot-level production data from one dedicated wafer fabrication plant, this thesis examines the direct impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production performance and production cost. Empirical results suggest that greater product variety does not have a significant impact on equipment productivity but does have a significant adverse impact on production quality. Moreover, I find support for the hypotheses that greater routing flexibility has a significant positive impact on quality, time, and cost performance. As for machine flexibility, it has a significant positive impact on equipment productivity and cost performance, but has a significant negative impact on production quality. Furthermore, I also find a non-linear relation between manufacturing flexibility and equipment productivity, cycle time, and production cost. This implies that maximizing the level of manufacturing flexibility is not necessarily optimal for firms. Limiting the flexibility level may actually have the greatest benefit. To further clarify the mechanisms through which variety and flexibility impacts performance, I move beyond the direct effects and investigate the linkage between product variety, manufacturing flexibility, environmental uncertainty and production performance. Based on the operations research, environmental uncertainty is operationally defined as the process time variation, inter-arrival time variation, and output variation. Results from path analysis indicate that product variety negatively affects production performance through environmental uncertainty. This finding stands in direct contrast to the general belief in management accounting research that greater product variety leads to an increase in the number of batch-level activities and product-sustaining activities, which thus increase the production cost. In other words, the reported cost of product variety may be underestimated, because we do not consider the impact of product variety on environmental uncertainty. The magnitude of the underestimation is especially greater in a highly congested and stochastic environment. Empirical results also show that machine flexibility and routing flexibility mitigate the adverse impact of environmental uncertainty on production performance.

本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。 　　根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。 　　在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動，故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。

在經濟發展的過程中，環境污染往往是其代價。石化產業在台灣經濟發展過程中扮演著火車頭的角色，帶動相關產業的勃興，但也帶來日益增加的環境污染與其社會爭議，成為政府部門必須面對的課題。在傳統的環境管制政策當中，科學評估被視為中立、理性客觀之分析技術，能夠有效處理環境問題的方法，其強調專業中立的形象，也與官僚理性所強調的中立性相似。因此這不僅是環境行政程序設計之核心，也是行政正當性的重要來源。但因著環境議題的複雜化、科學不確定性的增加，在行政程序當中，僅著重專家角色的行政程序，相信專家能夠帶來各樣問題的解答，不僅在程序上限制了多元知識類型的進入，既無法共同建構問題、也無法形成決策基礎的一部分；同時行政機關也此程序將決策責任移轉給專家；然而因著科學不確定性，使得專家必須在未知的情況下進行決策，因而使得決策內容會更加保守，讓環境爭議窄化成「如何收集更多資訊」等技術問題。行政機關原欲以專家作為決策正當性的來源，但狹隘的科學想像框架不僅使程序無法有效地處理環境爭議、無法回應來自多元參與者的提問，反而使得決策正當性更加受到嚴重的挑戰。 本研究以國光石化開發案的健康風險議題與六輕工安大火事件兩個案的環評過程為分析案例。在國光石化環評過程，健康風險議題是主要爭議焦點。當時有學者研究指出國光石化營運之後，將對台灣民眾的健康風險帶來重要影響，並指認環評書中所低估或錯估的部分。面對不同的科學研究爭議，環保署依其狹隘的科學框架，欲創制一套評判程序以解決爭議，卻適得其反。與此同時，六輕也在 2010年7 月傳出工安大火事件，地方陸續傳出有吳郭魚、文蛤、雛鴨等大量死亡的農業損失情事，使六輕營運後所造成的環境影響與健康風險問題，受到社會高度矚目。環保署因而要求台塑提出「環境影響調查報告書」進行審查。但環評專案小組因著科學不確定性而難以依科學論證作為基礎做出決策。最終則是以法院判決來作為決策的正當性來源。 本文透過多重資料來源的蒐集，包括田野訪談、環評專案小組會議、專家會議等相關之會議紀錄、相關事件的剪報資料，以及相關會議的參與觀察紀錄等。藉由兩個案的分析，探討行政程序建立在狹隘的科學框架之上時，為何產生行政決策的僵局，探討結構上的侷限與受到的正當性挑戰。並以論述應邁向具社會強健性的知識建構為基礎的開放行政程序，以強化決策正當性的根基。 / The scientific assessment in the traditional environment regulation policy is generally regarded as a rational technique. The common impression of scientific assessment is neutral and specialized, which is similar to the major principle of Bureaucracy, organization by functional specialty, defined by Max Weber. Therefore, the scientific assessment has been not only a foundation of environmental administration procedure, but also a resource of legitimacy. On the contrary, while the government just focuses on the scientific evidence in administrative procedure, there will be the political debates unable to resolve effectively. Because administrative procedure is unable to include multi-knowledge from different stakeholders, administration deal with environmental problems only limits to the sufficiency of scientific evidences. Consequently, administration transfers the responsibility about decision making to the experts committee. But experts committee could not make decision definitely, and the decision would be conservative, because of scientific uncertainty. As a result, the interpretation of environmental problems is narrowed to the proof of causal relationship between pollutants and environmental impacts. Since unknown causal relationships always exist, there will be ongoing arguments and disputes of environmental problems. Taking two examples of the environment impact assessment of a fire accident in the sixth naphtha cracking project in July, 2010, and the KuoKuang Petrochemical Project, 2011, the research analyze the hidden science framework and limitation behind the administrative procedure. The finding is that the technicalization of administration leads to government role shrinking and erodes the legitimacy of decision. In order to strengthen the foundation of legitimacy, administration should rebuild an open administrative procedure to foster socially robust knowledge.

絕大多數在台灣的企業屬於年輕的中小企業，他們所熟知的商業模式是生產代工，並無技術與市場的不確定性問題。如何從生產代工的商業模式跳躍到美國新創公司的知識經濟模式實在是一個對雙方都是很大的挑戰。由於雙方的不對稱性太大有必要讓其它人界入並彌補中間落差。開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。在維興國際公司目前所專注的四個不同技術中，同時包括B2B及B2C的產品領域。但無論是B2B及B2C，市場拉力與技術推力在技術仲介的領域中均同樣必須受到重視。 本研究由相關文獻探討，推展出以(買方)目標工業的選擇與管理、(賣方)管理並降低市場的不確定性、技術仲介的需求缺口三構面的研究架構來探討技術仲介業在美國新創公司的技術仲介服務活動的關鍵因素與管理項目。本研究採用個案研究法深入訪談個案公司的高階主管以了解其新創過程的實務作為。由個案分析與研究發現得出研究結論如下： 結論一：成功的技術仲介業對技術賣方的選擇與管理應考慮(1)新創公司生態(2)新創公司的動態管理(3)新創公司的選擇(4)新創公司的管理。 結論二：成功的技術仲介業對技術買方的管理應考慮到(1)社會氛圍與使用者的認知(2)使用者的吸收能力(3)創新與使用(4)降低技術與市場的不確定性。 結論三：技術仲介的成功因素包括(1)技術仲介的加值能耐(2)技術仲介的承諾(3)專利/技術加值增加原供應商的仰賴(4)經營策略的創新與新事業開發。 結論四：技術仲介屬於知識管理的一環，在開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。 結論五：台灣目前的技術服務業的主導者是以工研院技轉中心為主要的供需中心，輔以少數私人的智財買賣。 結論六：全世界都在鼓勵創新，國家的競爭力表現於創新與創業教育的養成。 / Most companies in Taiwan are belong to young SMEs, their business model is known for everybody and mainly the foundry model, there is no technology and market uncertainties. It is indeed a great challenge from the production foundry jumping into the knowledge based US startups. Since the dissymmetry from both sides are huge there exist a need for others to bridge the gap. Technology broker links buyer and seller in the area of open innovation. It is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. WH International currently focused on four different technologies, including both B2B and B2C products. But whether it is B2B and B2C, market pull and technology push in the field of technology brokers are also to be taken seriously. From the related literatures survey, based on a technology transfer company, this study is to promote the technology sales (the seller) and management of technology uncertainty, to help (the seller) to manage and reduce market uncertainty, to meet market demands of the technology broker, and compose the three dimensions of framework: the seller, the buyer and the broker. This research adopts case study method to analyze the practice of the case company. The research results are as below. 1. The selection factors of a successful technology broker facing technology vendor should consider (1) ecosystem of start ups (2) the dynamic management of start ups (3) the choice of start ups (4) the management of start ups. 2. The management of technology buyers from a successful broker should take into consideration of(1) the user's cognitive and social atmosphere (2) the absorptive capacity of users (3) innovation and the diffusion (4) reduce uncertainty of market. 3. The successful factors for technology broker include (1) the value-added capability (2) the commitment to technology (3) patents / technology development to increase value-added services to suppliers (4) innovation of business strategy and new business development. 4. Technical brokering is a part of knowledge management. Technology broker links buyers and sellers in open innovation while it is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. 5. Technology Transfer Center of the ITRI is the clear leader of technology services industry in Taiwan. There also existed some small private firms that handled intellectual property transactions. 6. Innovation is encouraged worldwide and national competition is reflected in the cultivation of innovation and entrepreneurship education.