The development of Direct Selling industry in China is amazingly flourishing since Avon set foot in GuangDong, China at 1992. Giving China’s potential mega size market, the growth pattern of the industry is not all very positive in the past 30 years. Chinese government has issued a total shut down upon all those Direct Selling business in 1998 to prevent the deterioration of the social distress caused by the not yet completed governing system. All the existing multi-national direct selling company were “advised” to transform from “No-Shop” Sales to “Direct-owned” or “dealer-owned” store operation. Not until Chinese government honored the WTO treaty in 2005 and embraced the development of private own retail business, the permission of No-Shop sales were then reissued. However, the well known multi-level marketing/compensation system of Direct Selling system was still banned in China. The Direct Selling system are mainly differentiated from traditional retailing system by its different selling channel, no-shop sales, single or multiple compensation system, and their high percentage motivation bonus system. What were the challenges the management team of the multinational direct selling companies facing? How can these companies survive the highly volatile legal environment and still be thriving 30 years after? What were the strategies adopted to cope with the external change? What were the consequences after these new strategies had implemented? The author has chosen the largest global Direct Selling Corporation-Avon and the largest International Direct Selling Corporation operate in China -Amway as subjects of this study and tried to determine what were the strategies these companies adopted that lead to success. The result of study found that the common strategies toward emergency lead to success are as follows: 1. Obey and cooperate with Chinese government's decree 2. Keep the communication channel with government open at all cost 3. Maintain good public image, advocate social well-beings by contributions 4. Ultra-flexible organizations

本研究旨在為廣播Call-in節目的對話，「尋找」出它的文體特色，而我們在進行文本分析與詮釋之前，我們必須先討論本研究關於文體的定義，以及在這樣的文體定義之下，要如何來進行文本分析的問題。討論過這兩個問題之後，我們才能進入我們實際的分析。 本文是將狀況情境視為一種語言活動參與者互為主觀的認知，而文體則是在一個文化社群之中，對於某種「類似」的狀況情境，所做出具「慣例性」的「適切」的語言形式選擇。另外本文也討論了書寫文體與對話文體、進階文體與初級文體的差異，做為進一步討論研究策略的基礎。 在研究策略上，本文主要試圖解決兩個問題：第一個問題是我們如何決定一種語言形式是由於某種情境因素所觸發？為解決這個問題，本文透過對於對話互動過程的討論，發展出一種比較的分析策略，但是這樣的分析策略卻仍會遇到適切性的問題，而最後研究者還是必須依靠他的雙重身份，也就是研究者與語言活動參與者共享的文體知識與文化意義，來做出詮釋。 第二個問題則是我們如何確定一種文體特色的「獨特性」？本文首先強調文體的進化與變異是語言使用的常態，而在這種常態之下，研究者必須瞭解到情境因素是多元多層的，而整體性地觀察狀況情境中所有的情境因素，於是本文使用了語域這個概念，來分類狀況情境中的各種情境因素，幫助我們的分析。此外我們也說明各種文體之間是一種家族相似性的關係，是彼此「部份相似部份相異」的，而如果我們要為一種文體畫出界線，就必須整體性地考慮所有的狀況情境。 在實例分析上，本文是認為廣播Call-in對話在語言範疇(field)上是兼具訊息性與娛樂性，一方面讓Caller成為暫時性的廣播者，一方面卻也是與Caller「閒聊」，達到娛樂性的效果。不遇即使Call-in對話再怎麼「親密」，在語言關係(tenor)上，它還是有距離的還是一種「偶遇」的語言關係。 最後在代結論的部份，本文則是重新檢視了適切性的問題、變異與進化的問題、以及我們在進行實例分析上的一些問題。

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本研究的主要目的，在探討財務分析師對公司盈餘宣告的反應情型。因為台灣近年來愈來愈重視財務分析師的預測資料，但先前之研究大多論文提要。 　　在探討影響財務分析師預測準確度之因素，尚未有研究探討財務分析師對公司盈餘宣告的反應情形，本研究基於此點原因，探討此問題，希望能更深入了解臺灣財務分析師的預測資料，讓使用財務分析師預測資料者做出更正確的決策。本研究依據文獻探討及延伸，採用四個研究模型探討財務分析師對公司盈餘宣告的反應情形。研究期間是從78年至82年，研究的對象為財訊月刊內的研究分析人員在財訊上所發表的盈餘預測值。資料蒐集是來自臺灣經濟新報社的資料庫。 　　實證結果顯示，台灣的財務分析師對公司的盈餘宣告有反應不足的情形存在。除此之外，台灣財務分析師對公司盈餘宣告的反應情形會因年度、產業別和公司大小不同而不同。

本研究利用DEA的效率衡量工具，分析球隊可能的解散因素，推論台灣職業棒球之市場機制。根據效率估計的結果約略可將台灣職業棒球二十年的發展分成三個時點，1990年至1997年—第一次簽賭爆發前：效率值呈現遞減的現象；1998年至2002年—兩聯盟共存期：多數的球隊呈現經營績效不佳；2003年至2009年—兩聯盟合併後時期：球隊普遍的經營績效均拉升。 Tobit迴歸分析結果顯示兩聯盟共存對經營績效有負向影響，二軍制度則對球隊的經營績效有正向影響，但令人訝異的是觀眾數對經營績效有負向的影響。存活分析結果推論觀眾數、球隊經營績效為影響球隊存續最重要的兩個因素。資料比對的結果符合上述Tobit迴歸及存活分析之結論，強化在DEA、Tobit、存活分析的推論結果。總而言之，台灣職業棒球市場經營機制尚未健全，本研究將其稱為「半人為市場機制」。台灣職棒必須進行改革，避免非市場因素介入市場運作，台灣棒球產業的未來才有發展性。 關鍵字：職業棒球、DEA效率分析、績效分析、Tobit迴歸分析、存活分析 / In this study, we use DEA efficiency measurement as a tool to analyze the survival of teams in the Taiwanese professional baseball market. According to the efficiency measurement results, one can divide the development of the Taiwanese professional baseball teams in the last twenty years into the following three periods: first, from 1990 to 1997—the outbreak of the first gambling scandal, overall efficiency performance was falling; second, from 1998 to 2002—when two professional leagues coexisted, overall efficiency performance was at the lowest; third, from 2003 to 2009—after two leagues were merged, significant improvement in terms of efficiency performance was observed. Tobit regression results suggest that the coexistence of two professional leagues has negative impact to the efficiency performance of teams while the introduction of the minor league system has positive impact to the efficiency performance. Surprisingly, the number of audience who attended baseball games has negative effect on the efficiency performance. The results from survival analysis identified the number of audience who attended baseball games and efficiency performance are the two main factors for the survival of a baseball team. A detailed data analysis confirms the Tobit regression and survival study results. In general, the market mechanism is yet well-developed. Non-market factors often affect the development of baseball teams and their survival. Drastic reforms and changes are required for the future development of the professional baseball market. Keywords: Professional Baseball, DEA Efficiency Analysis, Performance Analysis, Tobit Regression Analysis, Survival Analysis

國立大學校院校務基金政策從民國八十四開始試辦，至今已推行多年，但本研究發現目前尚無研究探討各校校務基金決算書上所列示之差異原因。由於國立大學預算是學校承諾未來計畫之工作，而決算是實際執行之結果，兩者差異除了一些無法控制因素外，若詳細檢討差異可以回饋給學校及主管機關未來在執行計畫或活動時能夠加以修改或改善。本研究分析公立大學96年至99年44所學校預算數、決算數差異情況，並彙整各校院對於預、決算數差異之原因，嘗試透過標準成本制與差異分析法之應用，詳細探討造成各校於預、決算數差異之因素，使差異分析能具體提供資訊給學校作為未來預算編製及成本控制管理之參考運用。 本研究發現儘管各校在國立大學校務基金決算書中，有列示預、決算差異及在備註說明其差異之理由，但說明都相當簡略除非原因明顯，否則甚難瞭解。研究發現教學研究及訓輔成本、管理費用與總務費用的用人費用皆有高估之傾向，主要是因為教、職員預算員額編列高估所致，同時透過差異分析亦顯示，即便有數量上之有利差異，仍有價格上之不利差異，代表相關之人事成本也偏高。教學研究及訓輔成本與管理費用與總務費用之折舊、折耗及攤銷在預算編列時嚴重低估。學生公費及獎勵金之靜態預算不利差異是由於平均每單位學生成本決算數較預算數高，而部分學校也是因為數量之不利差異；而靜態預算有利差異則主要是由於價格之有利差異所造成。大部分學校在研究發展費用中，其靜態預算不利差異係因價格上不利差異，即便大部分學校也具有數量上之有利差異。在學雜費收入淨額部分，靜態預算有利差異大部分係由數量之有利差異所造成；而造成學雜費收入淨額靜態預算不利差異除了數量上的不利差異外，大部分的學校是因為價格上的不利差異。本研究建議預算差異說明部分應明確界定差異金額與％需強制說明原因，並考慮編列「彈性預算」及差異分析方式增加價格差異及數量差異部分。 / Public universities have adopted public university fund instead of government fund since 1995. However, no research tries to analyze the reasons of the variance between the budget and the actual accounts of public universities. Since the budget of a public university is a commitment for the future plans and the actual account is the school’s executed result. The variance between them, except some uncontrollable factors, not only can provide some feedback but also can provide for improvement of the future plans, if the analysis had been analyzed effectively. Therefore, this study attempts to apply variance analysis of the standard cost and analyzes the variance between budget and final account of 44 public universities from 2007 to 2011. The proposed variance analysis approach is expected to substantially provide some useful information for public universities for the budget preparation and cost control and management. This study reveals that many universities indeed listed and explained the variance, but most of the explanations are quite rough. However, based on schools’ variance analysis it is very difficult to understand why and how the variances stand for, unless the reason is quite obviously. The study founds that the employees’ payrolls of teaching and research, training and consulting expenses, and general and administration expenses are overestimated due to overestimate the number of teachers and staffs. Variance analysis indicates that even a favorable variance on quantity, the price variance is still unfavorable, which means that the average personnel expenses are higher than the budget. The depreciation expenses of teaching and research and general and administration expenses are underestimated for all schools. Most school has an unfavorable static budget variance on student grant mainly due to higher actual average cost per student than the budget, and some schools due to unfavorable quantity variance. Most of schools’ unfavorable research and development expenses are caused by unfavorable price variance, although most of them have favorable quantity variances. The net revenue on tuition and fees, the favorable static budget variance is mainly due to favorable quantity variance and the unfavorable variance of net revenue on tuition and fees results from price variance. The research suggests that Ministry of Education should establish a standard amount or percentage of variance and requires public universities to explain when variance is higher than the standard. The public universities should prepare the “flexible budget” and apply the the price variance and quantity variance to variance analysis.

No description available.

在本篇論文中，我們利用Excel軟體建立動態財務模型來預測產物保險公司未來可能的結果。動態財務分析的使用者可輸入自己想要的參數透過其中所建立模型得到未來三年產物保險公司可能的資產負債表、損益表、資產負債未來的圖形。我們使用幾何布朗運動來模擬資產的變動，且負債方面使用兩種方法來估計：損失率法與合計損失法。使用者可從動態財務模型模擬出來的結果得到相關的訊息並以其來做為資產配置、風險管理、定價策略決策的參考。對於未來的研究，建議增加VBA程式撰寫來將Excel的動態財務分析模型擴充成full-valuation的模型。 / In this thesis, we have constructed a DFA model in Excel, which can predict possible future outcomes, over 36 months, for use by the property-liability insurance company industry. The DFA user would input some required parameters, after which the DFA model would generate output, including an income statement, balance sheet and patterns of assets and liabilities three years into the future. The DFA model measures the assets process by Geometric Brownian Motion; we use the loss ratio method and the aggregate loss method is used to estimate underwriting losses and reserves. The DFA system allows the user to input the parameters they feel are important, and gives them information relevant to property-insurance companies. Users may also use our system to make decisions about asset-liability allocation, risk management and pricing strategies. Future research may add a VBA program to our model, expanding it to a full-valuation DFA.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(文学) / 甲第19391号 / 文博第698号 / 新制||文||626(附属図書館) / 32416 / 京都大学大学院文学研究科行動文化学専攻 / (主査)教授 松田 素二, 教授 伊藤 公雄, 教授 田中 雅一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Letters / Kyoto University / DGAM

由於近年來大家對於「保險」一詞之觀念由負面逐漸轉為正面的保障,且因 為金管理機構的開放,使得保險業者成立家數變動幅度大,且由於法規鬆綁,能 夠提供之保險產品類型與銷售通路亦逐漸多元化,導致保險業者競爭激烈。而隨 著電腦技術進步及資料採礦技術蓬勃發展,許多公司積極投入資源,企圖利用資 料採礦技術從龐大資料中挖掘出新發現,藉以提供有用的資訊,作為公司決策的 依據,為公司創造出新的商機。因此善用現有資源,針對特定族群予以最適當及 最能滿足其需求的商品是保險業者最重要的目標。本研究期望針對最具潛力的族 群-年輕族群,利用資料採礦技術中之集群分析將其分群,並統整歸納出群集內 的共同特徵或特性,藉此描繪出不同類型的族群以更瞭解其需求。並利用關聯分 析法分析族群內保險商品購買情形,以做為保險業者針對此年輕客群中的不同族 群間保險商品之商品組合及未來商品規劃之策略建議。 本研究結果之總結發現,此年輕客群中上可分類成三個子集群,而三個之間 的特徵描述如下:A 集群:低風險、高忠誠度、重視退休養老生活的人。B 集群: 高風險、低忠誠度、重視身體健康的人。C 集群:高風險、低忠誠度、具投資理 財觀念的人。而根據此集群分類後之結果,利用關聯分析找出其保險商品最適合 之搭售組合。