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選股能力與基金績效持續性研究 – 以台灣國內股票型基金為例 / Stock Picking Ability & Fund Performance Persistence鍾亦強 Unknown Date (has links)
在資產管理公司的全球化浪潮下,國內資產管理的規模大幅成長,其商品種類也不斷地推陳出新,而投資人再選取商品上,經由過去的文獻發現投資人自身在判斷一檔基金投資與否通常會看其過去的績效,在近期有較高績效的共同基金較會受到投資人青睞。故在投資人有這種追求過去歷史績效的現象時,如何選擇有績效持續性的共同基金就變成一個重要的議題。
而一直以來,基金績效持續性的探討所找到的結果各家看法不一,部分文獻顯示出基金績效的持續性非來自於基金經理人的強調選股特徵,而亦有學者認為基金經理人可能會有能力上或是訊息上的優勢。經由歸納,常發現已發展國家的股票型基金持續性是不顯著的,而新興國家可能由於經理人的資訊程度較大眾的消息取得容易且迅速。
本文經由探討台灣股票型基金發現擁有較好強調選股特徵(1-R2)的基金其在未來績效較有持續性,若再搭配當期α來考量,則短期,投資強調選股特徵弱但α大的群組或是投資強調選股特徵強但α小的群組,績效表現較好;然而,若放眼長期,擇投資強調選股特徵強的基金,績效表現會較為出色,尤其是α落在較大群族的基金。整體而言,淨資產對於持續性的影響是顯著負向的,可能原因為規模不經濟導致;週轉率越高代表其績效持續性較強。另外新資金湧入導致基金績效持續性較不佳,原因可能為其淨資金流入會造成基金操作管理上效率的問題。 / Under the globalization tide of the asset management company, the asset managed in Taiwan has been grown dramatically, and much more various products have been launched. Empirical evidence found that investors tend to take past performance into consideration before they invest in funds. As a consequence, funds with recent outstanding performance are more popular than others. So performance persistence becomes an important issue.
Empirical researches did not reach consensus on whether funds have performance persistence, some paper shows that performance persistence does not stem from stock picking ability, however, some evidence show that fund managers might have some information or ability advantages. And performance persistence is more likely happened in emerging countries than developed countries due to fund managers have more efficient and latest information than general investors.
This paper finds that Taiwanese stock fund which emphasize more on stock picking ability (higher 1-R2) tend to persist. If analyzed with current α, funds with less emphasis on stock picking and bigger current α in the short run, or funds with more emphasis and weaker α will have better performance in the future. In the long run, more emphasis on stock picking, better performance in the future,especially those with strongerα. Greater asset under management and net sales rate might cause worse performance persistence due to inefficiency in management. And higher turnover help performance persistence.
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搜尋動機對持續性社群網路資訊搜尋影響之探討 / Identifying the Motivations of Ongoing Social Network Information Search劉瑞祥 Unknown Date (has links)
網路購物興盛、社群網站湧現以及資訊搜尋的方便性,持續性資訊搜尋成為購買決策很重要的影響因素。本研究先蒐集相關文獻與彙整搜尋動機的元素,共包括九種資訊搜尋動機,分別是:探索動機、滿足動機、價值動機、思想動機、產品提供豐富度、產品資訊提供、方便性、角色動機以及社交動機,並將這九種元素歸納為三種資訊搜尋動機,分別是:享樂性、功利性以及社交性,再探討搜尋動機與持續性社群網路資訊搜尋對購買意圖的影響關係。本研究透過網路發放問卷,有效樣本共480份,採用量化分析,並以最小平方法(PLS)進行有效樣本之實證分析。
本研究經因素分析發現,探索動機與滿足動機同屬於一種構面,本研究將此構面命名為:「探索滿足」;產品提供豐富度、產品資訊提供、方便性同屬於一種構面,本研究將此構面命名為:「資訊可得」;角色動機與社交動機同屬於一種構面,本研究將此構面命名為:「社交需求」。此外,在思想動機與價值動機方面,本研究則是分別重新將這兩種構面命名為:「資訊潮流」與「優惠需求」,以更符合理論邏輯與這兩種因素的意涵。
本研究結果顯示:研究分析歸納的五種資訊搜尋動機:探索滿足、資訊潮流、資訊可得、優惠需求、社交需求,對於持續性社群網路資訊搜尋皆具有正向的影響;持續性社群網路資訊搜尋對購買意圖亦具有正向的影響關係,而產品需求強度對於持續性社群網路資訊搜尋與購買意圖之間的關係則是不具有調節效果。這代表無論消費者對於產品是否有需求,只要平時在社群網站上瀏覽到產品的相關資訊時,就能影響人們購買意圖的產生,這間接證實了非計劃購買發生的可能,也突顯了持續性資訊搜尋的重要性。最後,本研究結果期望可以提供個人或業者於社群網站上的產品銷售策略之經營與學術未來研究之方向。 / Due to the flourishing of Internet shopping, the emergence of social network sites and the convenience of information search, ongoing search has become a very important purchase decision factors. In this study, we collected relevant literature and aggregated a total of nine kinds of search motivations, namely: adventure, gratification, value, idea, product offerings, product information, convenience, role and social. The nine search motivations are summarized into three search motivations, namely: hedonic, utilitarian and sociality. Then, we explore the effect relationship for the search motivations and ongoing social network information search to the purchase intentions. Then, we did questionnaires via the internet and a total of 480 valid samples were received, after that, we used quantitative analysis and used partial least square (PLS) to conduct empirical analysis.
By factor analysis, we found that adventure motivation and gratification motivation belonged to the same factor, we named “exploration meet”. Product offerings, product information and convenience motivation belonged to the same factor, we named “information availability”. Role motivation and social motivation belonged to the same factor, we named “social needs”. In addition, we re-named idea motivation to “information trend” and value motivation to “preferential needs” to make these two kinds of factors be more consistent with logical and theoretical implications.
The result of this study showed that the five kinds of search motivations: exploration meet, information trend, information availability, preferential needs and social needs all had positive impacts on ongoing social information search. Ongoing social information also had positive impacts on purchase intentions. But the product needs intensity didn’t have a moderating effect between ongoing social information search and purchase intentions, this result not only indirectly confirmed possibility of unplanned purchase, but also highlighted the importance of ongoing search. Finally, the results of this study could be expected to provide marketing strategy for persons or industries on the social network sites and could be referred for the future of academic research.
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自殺的經濟分析 / Economic studies on suicide黃勢璋, Huang, Shin Chang Unknown Date (has links)
自殺議題已成為各國政府非常重視且亟欲解決的問題之一。觀察日本近20年的自殺率的變化,發現兩種在文獻上未曾被討論的特殊現象。第一,日本自殺率在1998年出現幅度高達34.21%的大幅跳躍增加,本文將此跳躍現象稱為自殺的位移性 (displacement)。第二,自殺率在1998年出現大幅跳躍上升之後,縱使後來經濟情勢好轉,自殺率卻未曾再明顯回跌至1997年以前的較低自殺率,本文將此現象稱為自殺的持續性 (persistence)。不論是位移或持續性效果,目前的經濟相關理論的文獻,在社會經濟變數沒有相對應巨幅變化的情況下,並無法針對上述自殺率的特殊現象提出適當解釋。本文第三章將針對自殺的位移與持續性做深入討論。
另外,儘管世界各國的自殺率高低及趨勢存在差異,但從不同性別的自殺率角度切入,卻存在相當一致的現象,就是男性自殺率都明顯高於女性自殺率。既有的經濟相關理論文獻,就自殺率在性別差異的情況,並無相關理論模型解釋此一現象。本文第四章將針對男女性別在自殺率的差異現象做詳細分析。
第三章根據OECD與臺灣共34個國家的自殺率資料,首先根據實證檢定方法證實位移與持續性等特殊現象,並非僅存在於日本而已,有9個國家的自殺率具有位移與持續性現象。在理論模型分析方面,本文提出自殺的社會風俗模型,用來說明自殺率的位移與持續性現象。模型結果發現,自殺率在理論上可能存在多重均衡解。在社會自殺率很低的情形下,以自殺作為解決問題所必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本越大,此時的個人自殺機率與社會自殺率將維持在一個相對“好”的低自殺率均衡水準。相反地,若一般社會、經濟情況發生惡化,許多人透過自殺尋求解脫,使得社會自殺率出現明顯增加,此時以自殺解決問題逐漸成為一種被默許的社會氛圍時,欲尋求自殺必須承受的社會壓力與心理成本會大大降低。自殺率甚至會出現以跳躍上升的方式,迅速移往一個相對“壞”的高自殺率均衡水準。此時,如果社會經濟變數沒有出現巨幅改善,均衡自殺率將無法回到原先相對“好”的低水準而持續維持在相對“壞”的高水準,如同日本自殺率在1989至2009年間所呈現的位移及持續性現象。
第四章則透過經濟理論模型提出,預期壽命、天生基因以及風險趨避程度,是導致各國自殺率具有性別差異的主要因素。因為,預期壽命越高所帶來個人的預期終生效用現值越大,自殺行為或自殺率越低;使得各國女性預期壽命皆大於男性的情況下,得到男性自殺率高於女性之結果。心理醫學、生物學發現的性別天生基因不同,導致自殺率產生明顯差異的說法,也透過經濟理論模型進一步呈現。而工作選擇的風險趨避程度越低所伴隨工作所得變異性越大,導致個人落入貧窮的機會大增,自殺行為或自殺率提高;使得文獻發現女性風險趨避程度高於男性的結論,得到現實生活中男性自殺率高於女性的結果。在實證分析方面,根據從OECD成員國與臺灣共34個選樣國家資料,透過結合橫斷面與時間序列的統計資料,檢驗預期壽命與自殺率之間的關係是否與理論模型的結果相一致。結果發現,不論在哪一種Panel Data模型下,預期壽命與自殺率之間確實呈現顯著的負向關係,表示整體國家的預期壽命增加將使得社會自殺率降低。
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動能策略與股票風格在台灣股市的實證研究鄭雅如, Cheng, Ya-Ju Unknown Date (has links)
本論文為驗證台灣股市是否存在價格持續性或盈餘持續性的現象;再驗證不同股票投資風格(如大型股與小型股、成長型股票與價值型股票),加上價格持續性組成投組後是否也存在動能持續現象;價格持續性和盈餘持續性是否相關;以及加入盈餘品質後,價格持續性及盈餘的持續的效果如何,並依此建構投資策略,測試是否可以在台灣股市獲取超額報酬。
本研究的實證結果可歸納為以下4點:
一、台灣股市存在股價動能效果及盈餘動能效果。
過去六個月表現好的投組,未來6個月及1年都有較佳的表現,投組形成後4年,即有明顯的回歸平均的現象。未預期盈餘高的投組在未來6個月到4年的報酬率都較高。不論是價格持續性或盈餘持續性,投組形成後6個月的動能持續現象較強,因此投組形成後1年的持續效果可能來自前6個月的貢獻。至於分析師盈餘預測修正幅度,投組形成後正向修正幅度大的投組,未來的股價表現反而不佳,統計檢定的效果也不顯著,顯示國內若要以分析師對盈餘預測的修正幅度來做為盈餘持續性的代理變數,盈餘預測的品質還尚待加強。
二、權益帳面價值對市值比及市值與價格持續性的關係。
權益價值對市值比較高的價值型股票及市值較小的小型股,未來報酬的表現情形都較成長股及大型股佳,且過去6個月表現好的投組,未來的表現也比較好。但在投資大型股時,過去6個月報酬影響未來報酬程度較大。
三、價格持續性與盈餘持續性的關係。
標準化後未預期盈餘高的投組表現通常會比較好,但未預期盈餘低且過去6個月報酬率高的投組,仍有可能會替投資人帶來極高的報酬。
四、盈餘品質與價格持續性及盈餘持續性的關係。
盈餘品質(EQ)高的投組通常表現會比較好,但不論EQ高低,短期價格及盈餘持續性現象都存在。而EQ較低的股票,之後一但股票報酬持續表現良好,投資人也會修正對該公司的評價,有過度反應的情形發生,導致未來的報酬率較高。
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台灣股票型基金投資人報酬預測能力之研究李翊菱 Unknown Date (has links)
國外研究證實,由於基金績效具有持續性,則理性的投資人會以過去績效最為投資參考依據,將資金投入過去表現佳的基金,而此一投資決策應能持續創造超額報酬或風險溢酬,因此市場資金應會流向未來績效佳的基金(smart money effect),此即為現金流量報酬預期效果且由於基金的現金流量變動代表投資人的投資決策變動,故現金流量報酬預期效果亦即為投資人對於股票型基金報酬的預測能力。
為瞭解台灣基金投資是否具有報酬預測能力(選對好基金,將資金由壞基金中抽離的決策),而此能力是否會因基金基金規模產生差異,且市場投資人可否根據此一公開資訊(上上期的現金流量)、累積資訊(累積前三期的淨現金流量)作為投資參考,並賺取超額報酬。本研究根據建構八組投資組合,包括三組不同基礎的現金流入(出)交易策略,比較各投資組合的報酬預期效果。
結果發現,台灣股票型基金投資人並不具備報酬預期能力,且常做出錯誤的決策,通常由好基金中籌離資金,喪失獲取較佳報酬的機會。而市場投資人無法藉由遞延一期的現金流量資訊獲取較佳超額報酬機會,但可藉由過去累積三期的現金流量資訊,將資金由淨現金流入金額大的基金中抽離,並投資於淨現金流出金額較大的基金,可因而獲取較佳的績效。另外,投資人對小型基金的報酬預期能力優於大型基金。
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研究發展、廣告支出與企業經營績效關聯性之研究許戍 Unknown Date (has links)
研究發展與廣告活動是市場上常見的非價格之差異化訴求,且投入與產出間皆具有未來之遞延效益。Sougiannis(1994)認為在衡量研發支出與企業價值之關聯性時應同時考量對盈餘的影響,方能真正衡量研發活動的效益。本研究延續這樣的觀念,不直接將研發、廣告活動與企業價值予以聯結,而試圖找尋存在兩者間的中介績效變數,透過這些績效變數與研發、廣告活動之投入關係來衡量無形資產生產力及對企業的績效貢獻。
異於過去之研究,本研究除探討研發、廣告投入的強度之外,尚考量投入的持續性對企業經營績效之影響。依據投入強度與持續性兩項標準將研發、廣告投入區分為高、低群組,檢定不同群組下研發、廣告投入與四項績效指標(市場佔有率、營收成長率、營業利益率及資產報酬率)的關聯性,並以其中最能代表企業本業營運活動的營業利益率為經營績效變數,分析在不同產業下企業研發、廣告支出與經營績效間之關聯性。
本研究之主要結論,就單變量之分析結果顯示,以研發投入強度及持續性為區分要素,塑化業、紡織業、機電業、資訊電子業樣本中高研發群組之營業利益率顯著優於低研發群組;以廣告投入為區分要素下則以食品業較具顯著性。同時以研發、廣告投入為區分要素時,塑化業、資訊電子業樣本中高群組之營業利益率顯著優於低群組。迴歸分析結果顯示,塑化業、紡織業、機電業、資訊電子業樣本之研發投入強度及持續性愈高,其營業利益率愈大,食品業、塑化業樣本的廣告投入愈大,其營業利益率愈高。
本研究之實證結果隱喻,研發、廣告活動之支出效益具產業差異,而此處資源耗用與預期經營績效具產業差異性之實證發現,或可提供各企業評估是否投入研發或廣告支出決策時之參考。 / Featured with differed and uncertain future economic benefits, investments in research and development (R&D) and advertising activities have been concerned as two major means for non-price competition. Sougiannis (1994) argues that without an understanding in how R&D activity contributes to firm value, the relationship found between R&D intensity and stock price could be spurious. Based on Sougiannis’ perspective, this thesis attempts to explore the productivity of these two long-term or asset-like expenditures. Specifically, this thesis examines the relation between R&D (Advertising) outlays and financial performance measures.
This thesis differs from previous studies in that this research considers not only the magnitude of R&D and advertising outlays but also the continuity in term of time horizon of such outlays. Based on the magnitude and longitude of R&D and advertising expenditures, the sample firms are divided into high and low groups by both criteria. The thesis first tests the correlation between R&D and advertising outlays and some performance measures. The thesis then examines in regression analysis the benefits of R&D and advertising expenditures to operating income in different industries.
The empirical results show that the operating income of high group is significant different from that of low group in Plastics and Chemicals, Textiles, Machineries, Electrical and Electronics. When the grouping is classified by advertising, the operating income is significant different in Foods industry only, while the grouping is based on both R&D and advertising, the significant difference exits in Plastics and Chemicals, Electrical, and Electronics industries. The regression results indicate that R&D outlays displays a significantly positive effect on operating income in Plastics and Chemicals, Textiles, Machineries, Electrical and Electronics industries, while the influence of advertising expenditure is found in Plastics and Chemicals, and Foods industries only. These findings may serve as a basis for strategic decision as to whether to invest heavily on R&D and advertising activities, since the productivity of R&D and advertising outlays, measured as the relationship between the related expenditures and firm operating income, differs across industries.
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中國大陸得獎基金之績效持續性分析 / The Persistence of Awarded Fund's Performance in China林麗卿, Lin, Lee Ching Unknown Date (has links)
本研究的主要目的,在於探討中國大陸的得獎基金之績效持續性是否存在?本研究利用晨星與理柏兩家國際專業評級機構於2004年至2012年所頒發的中國大陸得獎基金為研究樣本(前者的樣本為41檔基金,後者的樣本為53檔基金),資料來源分別為晨星資訊(深圳)有限公司及新浪網。在分別採用累計淨值報酬率、Sharpe指標作為績效衡量指標,並使用Spearman等級相關檢定、績效二分法與迴歸分析,以驗證中國大陸得獎基金在頒發前後不同期間的績效表現是否具有持續性。研究結果發現,前兩種檢定方法皆呈現基金績效在短期(三個月及六個月)具有持續性,而在長期甚至出現績效反轉的現象。而迴歸模型分析的主要發現為,在控制其他變數後,獲得晨星中國基金獎之基金在短期才具持續性,在一年時出現績效反轉。而獲得理柏中國基金奬之基金,在六個月的評估期間就可能出現績效反轉的現象。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the persistence of awarded funds’ performance exist in China. This study employs awarded funds of MorningStar award and Lipper award in China as the sample provided by Morningstar website in China and Sina website. Using accumulated rate of return and Sharpe index as the measurements of awarded funds’ performance and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, two-way table constructed by Goetzmann and Ibbotson (1994) and regression analysis as methodologies to analyze this issue in different before-and-after periods, the primary finding of this study is that the former two methodologies show that the performance persistence of awarded funds exist only in three- and six-month periods, and performance reversal appears in the long-run. According to regression analysis, this study suggests that MorningStar awarded funds might have persistent performance in the short-run, but performance reversal after 1-year period. However, Lipper awarded funds do not have persistent performance, but performance reversal after six-month period.
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台灣共同基金績效持續性與基金流量之研究李愷莉, Li, Kai-Li Unknown Date (has links)
近年基金投資已然成為一般民眾重要的理財工具之一,而投資人最關注的顯然是基金績效的好壞,以及前績效好的基金在未來能否持續先前好的績效表現。因此本論文主要探討台灣的開放式股票型基金之績效、基金績效的持續性,以及投資人買賣基金的行為與基金績效之間的相互影響。論文第一部份是從隨機變數的觀點評估台灣的開放式股票型基金其夏普指標績效值,第二部份則以一般化的馬可夫模型-「漂移者—停駐者」模型評估基金績效持續性的動態行為,第三部份討論投資人的現金流量和基金績效之間的關聯性。
在第一部份的實證結果中,我們認為過去對夏普指標高的基金其績效較佳之想法必須修正,因為從隨機變數的觀點衡量基金的夏普指標值時,所有基金的績效均不顯著異於0。若與市場指數的夏普指標相比,並非所有基金經理人都能打敗市場,雖然以五年評估期間衡量基金績效時,有半數以上的基金其績效顯著優於市場指數,但在二年評估期間下只有極少數基金的績效顯著優於市場。第三,以拔靴法模擬基金的小樣本夏普指標分配時,仍然無法找到基金績效顯著大於零的證據。整體而言,本部份的研究認為從隨機變數的觀點衡量基金的夏普指標績效時,台灣的開放式股票型基金其績效超越市場的證據並不強。
第二部份以「漂移者—停駐者」模型衡量基金績效的動態持續性之實證結果,我們發現整體基金市場具有某種程度的績效持續性,但績效持續性的強弱程度隨著績效組別的不同而有差異,表現最佳與最差兩組基金的績效持續性高於績效中等基金,但整體基金的績效持續性並不很明顯。另外,績效最差組別的停駐基金比率為各組中最高,代表該組別基金的績效持續性較強。第二,基金績效持續性因績效指標的不同而有差異,主要差異反映在各績效組別裡停駐基金比率的估計。第三,「存活偏誤」的確對基金績效持續性的結果有影響,但主要影響反應在停駐基金比率的估計,而非績效漂移基金的轉換機率。第四,以概度比檢定驗證單純馬可夫鏈模型與「漂移者—停駐者」模型對資料的配適程度時,發現「漂移者—停駐者」模型較適合分析台灣開放式股票型基金的績效持續性。
就第三部份基金績效與投資人現金流量的討論,第一,實證結果支持台灣的開放式股票型基金其績效具有持續性,但整體市場的績效持續性並不顯著,其中季資料下基金績效的持續性證據最強,此部份與論文第二部份的結論一致。第二,前一季績效佳的基金在下一季能吸引投資人較多的現金流量,但是放入市場報酬率作為解釋因子後,我們發現投資人的現金流入隨著市場報酬率的上升而提高、隨著基金報酬率的增加而減少,因此投資人買賣基金的主要考量似乎是以市場整體走勢為主,而非基金前期績效。第三,投資人買賣基金的活動對基金後續績效並無影響,這可能是基金經理人的持股比率高於法令規定,或是投資人買入贖回基金的活動對績效的影響通常在數日內即已反應完畢。最後,討論經理人的流動性交易及訊息交易對基金後續績效的影響之前,我們發現基金前期績效的持續大約維持兩個月,但是加入流動性交易及訊息交易作為解釋變數後,基金績效的持續性減弱。 / Mutual funds have been a popular investment vehicle in recent years regardless of the growth of fund assets or numbers of beneficiaries. What investors mind are that whether mutual funds can provide higher return than others, star managers can persist previous dominant performance. For the reasons, we try to examine the performance of Taiwan mutual funds by Sharpe ratio index from new insights, and study mutual fund within best performance group can maintain antecedently superior performance. Finally, we attempt to investigate the relationship between fund performance and fund flows of open-ended stock fund in Taiwan.
1. We analysis the statistical distribution of the Sharpe ratio in Taiwan Mutual Funds developed by Lo(2002) and explore fund performance. First, we construct the confidence intervals of Sharpe ratio of Taiwan stock funds under different assumption for the return-generating process is independently and identically distributed returns (IID) and Non-IID but stationary, then, annualize Monthly Sharpe ratios by Time Aggregation technique. To avoid small sampling errors, we utilize bootstrap sampling conception to simulate the small sample distribution of Sharpe ratio of stock funds. We find that (1) there are not significant evidences that mutual funds in Taiwan have superior performance than riskless rate or market returns in several conditions. (2)By Bootstrapping sampling technique, we still cannot find stock funds have comparatively better performance than market indexes from empirical result. Accordingly, we believe that the usual methods about Sharpe ratios must be modified. That is, a mutual fund with higher Sharpe ratio is not necessarily a good performance, absolutely. Cause, Sharpe ratio index is not a constant, but a random variable, and we must build up its interval estimation and then test if there are significant differences between funds performance. Consequently, we argue it is relatively important to construct the performance-ranking system of mutual funds similar the bond credit-rating.
2. We employ the mover-stayer model to study the dynamics of performance persistence of mutual funds in Taiwan. This model provides us more detailed information about and help us further understand the nature of mutual fund performance persistence. We find (1) that there exists certain degree of persistence in mutual fund performance. Such persistence is, however, not very significant. It is because most funds are mover funds with unstable performance rather than stayer funds with consistence performance. More interestingly, funds within the best and the worst performance groups have more persistent performance than those within the middle performance group. It implies that in view of the previous mediocre performance, fund managers within the middle group have strong intention to improve their future performance. In addition, the fact that the worst performance group has the highest proportion of stayer funds implies that losers are more persistent than winners in Taiwan mutual fund industry. Overall, mutual funds in Taiwan have only weak performance persistence. (2) that consistent with the literature, the degree of persistence in performance is dependent on the performance evaluation criteria. It seems that this difference of degree of persistence is reflected in the estimation of stayer fund proportion, not in the estimation of the transition probability matrix of mover funds. (3) that there exists survivorship bias in our study. It mainly influences the estimation of stayer funds proportion, not that of the transition probability matrix of mover funds. Having said that , we believe that this bias will not alter the important conclusions of this article.
3. This part studies three important issues including the performance persistence of mutual funds, the relationship between mutual fund performance and investor fund flows, and the influence of investor fund flows on the performance of mutual funds. Our analyses are based on the data of mutual funds in Taiwan with three different frequencies that include monthly, quarterly, and yearly data. The methods we utilize to perform the analyses are those from Gruber (1996) and Edelen (1999). There are three main findings in this article: (1)During the sample period from 1996 to 2004, the evidence on the performance persistence of mutual funds in Taiwan is at best weak regardless of various risk-adjusted models and data frequencies. In sum, mutual funds in Taiwan do not perform persistently no matter how their performance is measured. (2)We are not able to discover a significant relationship between mutual fund performance and investor fund flows based on monthly data. This result is not consistent with that of Gruber (1996). However, this relationship becomes stronger if we look at quarterly data. In addition, the most interesting thing is that it seems that it is the quarterly stock market return that derives most of investor fund flows rather than the quarterly mutual fund performance itself. This result implies that the key factor for investors to decide whether to invest more capital into mutual funds is the overall market performance. In other words, the market sentiment may be the most importance factor that induces investors to purchase or sell mutual funds. (3) In contrast to the results of Edelen (1999), the liquidity-trading of fund managers induced by investor fund flows does not have a significant adverse effect on fund performance. Interestingly, the contemporaneous information-trading of fund managers has significant negative impact on fund performance while that in the previous month actually improves fund performance. Furthermore, the performance persistence normally lasts for two months but it diminishes when we incorporate both the liquidity-trading and information-trading of fund managers into the regressions.
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購買前搜尋與持續性搜尋對購買後認知失調的影響 / Investigating the Effect of Pre-Purchase Search and Ongoing Search on Post-Purchase Dissonance郭家瑋, Guo, Chia Wei Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在了解不同類型的資訊搜尋對購買後的心理狀態的影響。首先,我們探討消費者的產品知識如何影響他們的搜尋量,包括線下購買前搜尋、線上購買前搜尋和持續性搜尋,再來探討這些搜尋行為如何影響消費者的購買後認知失調。本研究共收集了542份有效問卷,我們使用PLS結構方程模型來驗證研究模型。研究結果顯示,消費者產品知識對線下購買前搜尋、線上購買前搜尋和持續性搜尋有正向影響,對購買後認知失調有負向影響。在三種類型的搜尋中,只有線上購買前搜尋對購買後認知失調有負向影響。購買後搜尋對購買後失認知調亦有負向影響。對消費者搜尋行為以及消費者搜尋後心理狀態感興趣的研究者們,期望本研究的發現能為他們未來的研究帶來啟發與幫助。 / This study aimed to understand how different types of information search influences consumers’ post-purchase mental state. First we investigated how consumers’ product knowledge influence their amount of information search, including offline pre-purchase search, online pre-purchase search, and ongoing search. Then we investigate how these searching behaviours influence consumers’ post-purchase dissonance. Total of 542 valid online questionnaires were collected and PLS structural equation model was used to verify our research model. The result showed that consumer product knowledge had positive influence on offline pre-purchase search, online pre-purchase search, ongoing search, and had negative influence toward post-purchase dissonance. Among three types of information search, only online pre-purchase search had negative influence on post-purchase dissonance. Post-purchase search also had negative influence on post-purchase dissonance. For those who are interesting in consumers’ searching behaviours and post-search state of mind, these findings could be referenced in their future research.
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以ITIL流程改善模型進行SLM導入之研究─以某證券公司資訊部門為例林良原, Lin, Liang Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
隨著主管機關對金融商品規定的鬆綁,金融機構業務型態的變化越來越多,量也越來越大,對資訊系統依賴的程度也越來越高。其中,證券公司業務的執行及對客戶的服務,更是高度依賴IT服務的可用性、可靠性、安全性和表現的效能。然而,IT與業務部門需求認知上的落差及IT部門在企業內扮演角色認知上的錯誤及不當的IT管理方式,反而讓問題的發生層出不窮,IT也經常落入問題處理的深淵。
問題的複雜度雖然不斷提高,相對於業務單位對系統穩定性的要求卻更高。問題是:企業不可能因為追求效率上的完美而不斷花錢投入IT資源。在IT資源有限的情況下,IT部門須對這些問題,進行更有效的管理及回應。因此,IT治理不僅已成為金融機構實現業務目標的基本要素,也是獲取客戶信任不可或缺的元素。本論文則嘗試透過導入行之有年的ITIL管理方法,協助解決證券公司資訊部門的困境。
為能達到良好的IT服務治理結果,本研究針對業務單位對IT部門所提供的資訊服務期望,透過ITIL的服務水準管理流程(Service Level Management,SLM)來加以定義及描述。主要做法:
1.利用ITIL流程改善模型(Process Improvement Model)的四階段步驟,參考營業服務管理(Business Service Management,BSM)的觀念與做法,讓IT單位與業務部門能有更好的溝通。
2.依據溝通的結果產出實際可行之服務水準協議。簡言之,即是由使用者的角度去找出所需達到的IT服務標準。還可依此畫出營業服務與IT服務間之對應關係,明確彼此的責任。
3.透過重複不斷的檢討與回饋,讓IT服務能越來越符合實際業務的需要。
本研究發現,透過案例「致富快手」系統在服務水準管理流程中所獲得的業務單位對IT部門的服務期望資訊,對照現況IT部門的服務表現與目標水準的差異分析。的確可以協助IT部門就資訊服務的提供現況來推導,以獲致未來可進行服務改善的目標項目。而不再是以個人的直覺來進行系統維護與IT投資,這些效益還包括:
1.增進IT了解自己在企業營運上的價值貢獻;體會與業務單位的分工合作關係,減輕彼此的對立。
2.營業服務關鍵流程協助IT部門進行資源佈署,優化IT投資。
3.對營業服務關鍵流程,提供一具體、可量化的衡量標準與描述。可依此建立SLA與OLA。
4.服務期望與服務現況比較,了解IT服務對營業服務支持程度。
5.服務期望與服務現況差異化分析,為日後服務改善之依據。
6.營業服務與IT資源對應,明確IT資源關鍵元件;為備援建置及容量管理之重點對象。
7.以Business/IT知識庫檢視監控機制涵蓋程度,做為服務改善之目標。
8.透明IT營業支援服務體系,增進雙方溝通與問題處理有效性。
研究中也發現,服務水準管理流程只是在規範IT服務相關單位的行為活動。也就是說,服務水準管理流程其實只是在訂定IT服務的目標,至於應如何來實現,仍須藉由其他服務提供(Service Support)流程的有效支持;改善的具體實現,又會反應在服務水準指標的執行結果上,兩者其實為互相呼應,相輔相成的因果關係。 / As the finance production deregulates, the financial institutions could run more and more various businesses. In order to offer quality service, it’s necessary to have IT support in the back. So does Security Corporation. The business performances of a security corporation almost depend on an available, reliable, and secure IT services. However, there are some problems occurred between the business and IT units. In one hand, they both have misunderstanding in cognition to the other party; on the other hand, passive attitude and ineffective management of IT department made two groups always unsatisfied to each other. Furthermore, the spending of IT investment in a company is limited, but the business units continually require of better performance requirement. The atmosphere between two parties is in tension.
For solving those problems, the study of IT governance comes out. It helps organization offer better IT service under limited resources. Moreover, IT governance is not only the effective method to realize business object, but the important one to obtain the customers’ trust. As the result, we use one of IT governance methodology, ITIL (IT Infrastructure Library), to resolve the predicament of IT department in the security corporation.
In this paper, we identify the expectation to IT service from Business units using the concept of SLM (Service Level Management) module described in ITIL. Our analysis steps are as follow:
I.Understand the needs: We use the “Process Improvement Model” in ITIL and the concept in BSM (Business Service Management) to analyze the “real” requirements from business units.
II.Settle and implement the agreements: After clarify the relationship between business function and IT service, the most important document in SLM, SLA (Service Level Agreement), will be ready for recording the result of negotiation of two parties. It’s also good for addressing the responsibility.
III.Review and improve the IT services: After implement, it’s necessary to review the result, and get the feedback for next service improvement. By continuous improvement, IT service will be able to match the business needs.
In the case, we conduct the gap analysis between the expectation of business department and real performance of IT service. It helps IT department to understand “where we are” and “what we want”. Through the result of the comparison, it provides an obvious direction for service improvement, instead of by “intuition” only. It also includes other benefits like that:
I.The IT department can realize its role in whole enterprise. It could have better cooperation with business department.
II.The BSM helps IT manager to deploy its resources and optimize the investment in IT.
III.The methodology provides a concrete, measurable standard and description to the business. It’s useful to establish the SLA and OLA (Operation Level Agreement).
IV.The comparison between expectation and current status can show how the level of IT services support business services.
V.The gap analysis provides the direction of service improvement.
VI.The IT resources components are highlighted. Those components are major objects in backup mechanism and capacity management.
VII.The Business/IT Knowledge base helps to review the range of monitor.
VIII.The IT support system can be revealed. It is benefit to communication and problem management.
The study shows that Service Level Management focus on how to restrict the action of IT Services provider. In other words, the whole process just helps to fine out the object of IT Services. It also needs support of other Service Support processes. Furthermore, the services’ quality improve will be showed by the Service Level Index. The SLM and other process complement to each other. To sum up, SLM is good for IT units to identifying needs and catching them. However, it should implement with other process to get better effect.
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