IFRS 的準則，對於未來想國際化的國內保險公司及面對國際投資人，是使用相同一套會計準則，不需再調整財報，有助提升國際競爭力及國際形象，若海外發行有價證券也不需再重編財報，可節省籌資成本。依目前國際發展情勢，IFRS 4 已廣泛為全球保險市場之採用準則，直接採用(adoption)IFRS 4 亦成為國際保險市場之趨勢，我國亦於2011 年1 月1 日公佈IFRS 4 第一階段生效，期與世界接軌，IFRS 4 未來對我國保險業將會有更重大之影響。為未雨綢繆，遂引起本文對此議題研究之動機。壽險業為長年期保險合約，須採用要素衡量法評估。為符合IFRS 4 第二階段規定之要素衡量法及保費分配法之評估，採個案產險公司為研究對象，祈予在IFRS 4 第二階段實施前，台灣產險業能提早做準備，並以充足時間瞭解並完善規劃準備執行配合，以符合未來主管機關之相關規定。 本論文以個案公司為例，評估國際財務報導準則第四號對保險公司精算規範與目前保險局規範保險公司相關精算試算之差異，特選用一般自用汽車財產損失險及傷害險採用保費分配法，工程險採用要素衡量法試算，並分析差異之內容，以了解個案公司未來因IFRS4 實施對該公司財務之影響。 以目前資料推估實施當年採用保費分配法會對盈餘報導較為有利，採用要素衡量法當年度會有對盈餘報導不利的衝擊，整體而言，對個案公司未來營運應無重大影響。 / The principles of IFRS ,which is using the same set of accounting standards, is conducive to enhance the international competitiveness and image for domestic insurance companies who scheme to internationalization and contact with international investors. In addition, companies can also saving the cost of issuance of foreign securities since they do not need to restate the financial statements. Taiwan also announced the IFRS 4 phase I be effective in January 1, 2011, hoping to connect with the world. In the future, IFRS 4 will have a more significant influence on Taiwan's Insurance Industry. In order to thinking ahead, which bring in my motivation to researching on this topic. Life insurance industry is major in long term insurance contracts, has to use the Building Block Approach. To comply the IFRS 4 Phase II which using the Building Block Approach and Premium Allocation Approach, I adopt the case of property Insurance as the research objectives. In order to fit with the relevant provisions of the competent authority in the future, Expecting Taiwan’s property Insurance can prepare in advance, well understanding and scheduling, before the implement of IFRS 4 phase II. In this paper, which use the property insurance case, evaluation the actuarial valuation difference of IFRS 4 and relevant norms of Insurance Bureau. I use Premium Allocation Approach to value the usually own car property damage insurance and casualty Insurance, and use Building Block Approach to evaluate Engineering Insurance. Through analysis of the content, to understanding the influence of IFRS 4 for the study company in the future. Based on the current data, adopting Building Block Approach is beneficial for the study company. Comparatively, Premium Allocation Approach is disadvantage for the study company. In conclusion, the implement of IFRS 4 should have no significant influence to the study company in the future.

本研究欲了解有無集團企業背景對本國產險公司經營效率之影響，並透過本國有無集團企業背景產險公司之效率比較，求證關於代理理論之審慎管理假說及費用偏好假說是否成立。本研究運用資料包絡分析法(Data envelopment Analysis, DEA)及cross-frontier analysis評估民國81至90年，17家本國產險公司具集團背景及無集團背景各年度效率情況。另外，採用多元迴歸分析討論產險公司不同經營特性對經營效率的影響。本文亦利用Malmquist生產力指數分析具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司十年來生產力的變動。 　　本研究之實證研究結果如下： 一、於技術效率，具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司無技術效率差異，表示不論有無集團背景，皆有各自的經營技術優勢，符合審慎管理假說。於成本效率，發現81至85年時具集團背景產險公司之成本結構於生產無集團背景產險公司的產出相對較具成本效率，符合費用偏好假說；但86至90年時，則無集團背景產險公司之成本結構對於自己的產出較具成本效率，不符合費用偏好假說。 二、以多元迴歸分析於81至85年、86至90年，影響無集團背景產險公司效率之因素。本文發現於86至90年，當無集團背景產險公司總資產越小、再保比例越高，其以自己的成本結構進行生產，越顯著較以具集團背景產險公司的成本結構進行生產來得具成本效率。 三、二類產險公司於民國81至90年間生產力皆呈現衰退，且具集團背景產險公司衰退情況較嚴重。二類產險公司生產力衰退主因皆為生產技術的衰退；此外，具集團企業背景產險公司十年來的技術效率有衰退的趨勢，而無集團背景產險公司之技術效率則持續進步。若綜合前面成本效率的結果，則十年來具集團背景產險公司平均效率表現沒有進步跡象；而無集團背景產險公司有改善其效率。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of“group”background on the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan. We test the managerial discretion hypothesis and the expense preference hypothesis by comparing the efficiency of the group and independent property-liability insurers. Using the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan from 1992-2001 as our sample, we use DEA and cross-frontier analysis, and adapt multiple regression analysis to examine the variables which affect the efficiency performance in the property insurance company. We also measure the productivity changes of the group firms and independent firms over ten years. The empirical results are summarized as follow. First, we find that the technical efficiency results are consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis, in that there is no difference in the technical efficiency between the group firms and independent firms. The results of cost efficiency between 1992 and 1996 show that the group frontier dominates the independent frontier for independent outputs, supporting the expense preference hypothesis. However, the results of cost efficiency between 1997 and 2001 no more support the expense preference hypothesis in that the independent frontier dominates the group frontier for independent outputs. Second, we find that the independent firms tend to have a comparative advantage over the group firms in the independent cost frontier when the independent firm’s size is smaller or when its reinsurance proportion is higher. Finally, the results of the Malmquist productivity analysis show that the productivity of group firms declines in 1992-2001, and the decay is due to their technical efficiency decreases. Conversely, the productivity of the independent firm improves.

本文所使用信用風險評價模型為KMV公司用以衡量未上市公司之違約風險的PFM模型(Private Firms Model)，主要的研究標的為美國未上市產險公司。此模型最主要的目的在求出公司的資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，並假設資產市值的變動遵循標準幾何布朗運動，因此在產險公司的資產市值小於某值後，該公司即算違約，其中資產市值平均與該值的距離稱為違約距離。而未上市產險公司缺少股價資訊，因此無法用一般的選擇權評價公式求得資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，所以先使用可以衡量上市產險公司資產市值的KMV模型(Moody's KMV EDF□)，找出上市公司的資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度，再找出財務比率與兩者的關係，最後再將這層關係套用到未上市產險公司，如此可以求得未上市產險公司之資產市值及資產市值報酬率波動度。 本文經過實證研究過後，發現套用從1991年到2000年上市產險公司資料中找出的關係，代入2000年的未上市產險公司資料來預測公司於2001年是否違約，其結果發現準確度並不高；接著且再以違約距離和少部份財務變數做為預測模型，代入2001年資料，以預測2002年未上市產險公司的違約與否，其準確率也與先前相近，兩者的解釋能力約都只有六成到七成，雖然如此，還是可以發現違約距離在解釋能力上還是有一定之貢獻，如果可以將違約的樣本群數量□加，應該可以提升預測的準確度。 / This theme is to measure the default probabilities of private P&C firms’ default in the U.S A. The model this paper used is called PFM (Private Firms Model). The asset value and asset volatility could be found by this model, but we must assume that the asset value will follow General Brownian Motion. After finding asset value and asset volatility, the next step is to find the default point. The distance between the expected asset value and the default point is DD (Distance to Default). However, the private P&C firms lack the relative stock information, so the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model couldn’t be used. In order to find the relationship between the private firms’ asset value and asset volatility, we can use Moody's KMV EDF□ (Expected Default Frequency) credit risk pricing model to measure the public P&C firms’ asset value and its volatility and find the relationship between those and firms’ financial ratios. Using the public firms’ relationship on private firms, the distance to default of the private firms can be found. Through the empirical research, the correct rate of this model on the private P&C firms in the U.S.A is low. Besides, let DD and other financial ratios be the variables to forecast the next year, the correct rate is still low, but we can find that DD’s ability to explain the default probability is 60~70%. Therefore, we can say DD is still the useful variable and if the sample size of default firm can be increase, the correct rate may be promoted.

我國自91年4月1日推動「產險市場費率自由化時程計畫」且分三階段實施， 在第一階段允許產險公司「附加費用」自由化，產險公司若簡化行政流程、降低人事成本，就能調降附加費用率。第二階段費率自由化，產險公司除了「附加費用」自由化外，更允許「危險保費」有限度的偏離；也就是說「危險保費」是有條件自由化。自98年4月1日起正式實施第三階段，也就是意味著各產險公司均應在第一階段及第二階段之緩衝時期做好萬全之調適與配套措施，產險業進入全面競爭之時代。 費率自由化第三階段正式的實施，其相關的監理配套措施及內容，遷動著未來汽車保險市場之發展，而汽車保險業務一直都是產險市場的最大宗業務。但在核保、理賠及行銷等方面處處受到車商保代通路的限制、影響，若能進一步在車險通路行銷制度問題上加以改善，對我國未來汽車保險市場將有很大的發展空間。 本篇論文主要目的係探討我國費率自由化相關議題。透過98年4月1日費率自由化第三階段的正式實施，我國產險市場邁入全面自由化階段，除了對費率自由化第三階段的相關監理配套措施內容作深入瞭解外，並針對費率自由化第一、二階段實施過程中所產生的諸多相關議題作深入研究，且借鏡鄰國日本產險費率自由化之經驗作為參考，並搭配我國汽車保險市場的實際現況，提出費率自由化第三階段實施對未來汽車保險市場的預期影響，並藉由個案公司的研究分析，提出個案公司未來車險通路最適行銷策略，以期盼產險業在面臨全面費率自由化之際，提出個人的幾點因應淺見，能提供給產險業者作為參考，並亟盼未來我國汽車保險市場運作能更佳健全蓬勃發展。 / Taiwan’s Non-life Rate Deregulation Plan has put into practice since April 1, 2002 with three phases. The first phase is to liberalize the restrictions of the loading expense. The non-life insurers can flexibly reduce the loading expenses by way of a more simplified administration process and lower personnel costs. The second phase further allows for a limited deviation rate applicable for the risk premium, namely, a conditioned deregulation for the risk premium. The third and last phase begun from Apr. 1, 2009 is to entirely liberalize all relevant expenses and premium rates. It also means that all non-life insurers should have worked out a set of comprehensive measures in preparation for a completely competitive market. The future development of motor insurance, which ranks largest among all lines of business, is subject to the corresponding supervisory measures to be taken at the third stage. However, the agents of motor companies regularly dominate the non-life insurers’ operations in the aspects of underwriting, claim and market strategy. Hence, if the existing problems related to the marketing channels encountered by the non-life insurers can be resolved, a more prosper development for motor insurance market is anticipated. The thesis mainly studies the relevant topics in relation to the rate deregulation in Taiwan. In line with the rate deregulation implemented in the third stage, the thesis not only has an in-depth study of the corresponding supervisory measures, but also discusses many related subject matters arising from the implementation process between the first and second phases. Meanwhile, the expected effects resulting from the third phase has been submitted based on Japanese same experiences in the past and domestic motor insurance market. Furthermore, by means of a specific case study, the thesis also proposes some optimal marketing strategies, which might be helpful to insurers as well as to develop a sound and stable motor insurance market in the future.

信用評等制度在美國已有百年以上歷史，而我國自民國80幾年開始發展評等制度，截至目前，僅有中華信用評等公司與台灣經濟新報社兩家公司提供評等服務，而台灣經濟新報社更將金融保險業排除於評等對象之外。站在穩定市場競爭、保障消費者權益、配合監理需求，以及輔助專案投標等方面來看，市場上的確需要一套能反映產險業行業特性之評等模式。 本文以美國接受A.M.Best評等之產險公司為研究對象，運用三種統計方法：多元區別分析(Multiple Discriminant Analysis，MDA)、羅吉斯迴歸(Unordered Logistic Regression，ULR)、順序性羅吉斯迴歸(Ordered Logistic Regression，OLR)，來建構產險公司之信用評等模式。樣本選擇方面：估計樣本，選取美國1993年到1996年接受A.M.Best評等之產險公司327家；保留樣本，為1997年78筆資料。 而本文預定達成目標如下： 一、建立等級預測模型：參考Ederington(1985)所作債券等級預測模型，以獲利能力、槓桿、流動性、投資風險、準備金適足性五類指標共38個財務比率，透過三種統計模型，建構等級預測模型。 二、藉由等級預測之建立，尋找能有效區別產險公司評等等級之財務指標，並分析其影響程度。 三、力求模型公信力：無論變數選擇或權數決定，皆由統計軟體按照樣本特性選取產生，減少人為主觀判斷。 在決定研究對象之初，因考慮到國內產險公司接受評等之家數不多，且年數又太短，資料數量無法據以建立評等模式，因而決定以美國的產險公司為對象，再以台灣樣本作為保留樣本，預測之等級結果僅供參考之用。 / Three possible models of the P-L Insurers rating process are estimated and compared：1. Muitiple Discriminant Model, 2. Unordered Logistic Model, 3. Ordered Logistic Model. Each model is estimated for a sample of 327 American P-L insurance companies using the same 38 independent variables. The three estimated models are then employed to predict ratings for a holdout sample of 78 companies. The study analyzes 1993 through 1997 data for a sample of P-L insurers that acquired A.M.Best Financial strength ratings between December 31,1993, and December 31, 1997. Empirical evidence suggests that even when models with the same basic structure were compared, differences in estimation procedures resulted in quite different coefficient estimates and classifications. The muitiple discriminant model clearly outperformed the regression model, while the unordered logistic model was clearly superior to the ordered logistic model.