本研究係以加入金融控股公司之四家產險公司為研究對象，並以13項經營績效指標分析，探討此四家產險公司於加入金控前後，個別公司經營績效之差異性，藉以比較分析並了解產險公司加入金控後，對其經營績效是否有所助益。此外，在排除絕對數指標(本業收益及投資收益)，且合併市佔率與業界排名此二項指標，以10項經營績效指標來衡量金控旗下四家產險公司彼此之經營績效，以了解不同體系下之產險公司所產生綜效之差異性。 經過實證結果發現：(1)此四家產險公司於加入金控前後，個別公司經營績效之差異性並不明顯，僅國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險之經營績效有較顯著改善，餘均無較大之差異性，甚或有績效下滑之態勢，顯示金控綜效於旗下產險公司表現並不明顯。(2)金控旗下四家產險公司彼此間之經營績效仍以國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險表現最好，華南金控旗下華南產險表現居次，富邦金控旗下富邦產險排名第三，兆豐金控旗下兆豐產險則敬陪末座。從實證結果得知，國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險不論在加入金控前後之效益顯現或與其他三家公司績效比較，都較為良好且穩定。 / The study analyzes thirteen operating efficiency indices of four property insurance companies of financial holding corporations and compares the operating efficiency before and after they join the financial holdings groups. Besides, I have taken ten operating efficiency indices into account, including consolidated market share and industry rankings, excluding absolute indices such as core earnings and investment profits, to measure the operating performance of these four companies to compare the difference of synergies among them. The empirical study shows that: 1) Only Cathay Century Insurance Company of Cathay Financial Holding Group has improved operating performance but the others do not have significant difference with regard to it; some even have worse operating performance than that before they joined the financial holdings companies and it implies low synergy is evident for property insurance companies of financial holdings companies. 2) The operating performance rankings of these four companies are as followed: Cathay Century Insurance Company of Cathay Financial Holdings, South China Insurance Company of Hua Nan Financial Holdings, Fubon Insurance Company of Fubon Financial Holdings, Chung Kuo Insurance Company of Mega Financial Holdings. The empirical study tells us that Cathay Century Insurance Company has better operating performance before and after joining financial holding companies.

本文主要是探討風險基礎資本額制度施行後對產險公司資本與風險的影響，以作為台灣未來施行風險基礎資本額的參考。我們所使用的方法是二階段最小平方法來分析資本、風險與風險基礎資本額之關係，結果發現，當RBC ratio較低的產險公司會增加資本比率、減少其風險行為，反之，RBC ratio較高的產險公司其行為會受到公司規模大小之影響，若是RBC ratio高的大型保險公司，會減少資本、增加風險，避免過多資本管理沒有效益;小型保險公司則是會增加資本、減少風險，此即可能是為了增加承保能量以減少未來可能發生之巨災所造成的損害。 / This paper examines the simultaneous impact of the RBC regulation on property-liability insurers’ capital ratios and risk including asset risk and product risk. We use a two stage least squares (2SLS) model to analyze the relationship between property-liability insurers’ capitals, risk and RBC ratios. The results suggest that insurers with low RBC ratios increase their capital ratios and decrease their risks, while insurers with high RBC ratios have different risk-taking behavior. This is affected by the insurers’ sizes. Small insurers with high RBC ratios increase capital and decrease risk to enlarge capacity and to prevent any catastrophe happening in the future. Large insurers with high RBC ratios decrease capital and increase risk to avoid management inefficiency.

由於經濟轉型，消費者保護意識抬頭，製造業在台灣生產成本提高，支撐早期經濟奇蹟的中小型紛紛選擇外移，導致台灣的產險市場大餅成長不易，甚至負成長，產險公會理事長石燦明先生更公開呼籲，產險業者應避免削價競爭，否則2010年將會是簽單保費新台幣千億元的保衛戰。台灣已是世界貿易組織WTO的正式一員，隨著全球化發展趨勢，部份產險業者開始突破傳統格局，到海外尋找藍海市場。與歐美業者相較，東南亞各國在文化和地域性上的相近，除中國大陸外，越南政府近年來亦展現改革開放決心，積極對抗越南盾貶值壓力，同時吸引大量外國直接投資（FDI），造就連續幾年的高經濟成長率，越南的產險保費收入亦拜經濟成長之賜而維持二位數的高成長。越南於2007年成為WTO第150會員國，為了履行開放保險市場的入會承諾，隨後公告幾則重要法案，讓有意進入越南保險市場的外資有所依循，同時一改其法令煩瑣行政效率不彰形象，核發執照予外資，台灣產險龍頭富邦產險率先掌握時機，突破門檻，於2008年成功設立子公司。從1988年起計迄今，台灣為越南累計最大的FDI投資國，台商所投資產業將為保險業務來源的最大支柱，此為台灣保險業者在越南的優勢。有了領頭羊富邦產險成功達陣的先例，本研究特就越南總體經濟開始切入，分析越南產險市場結構及富邦保險越南有限公司2009年的經營績效，進而針對外資及台灣產險業者在越南商機，分別以波特五力分析理論及SWOT分析法進一步探討，提出對台灣的產險業者發展越南保險市場的建議。 關鍵字：台灣，越南，產險，商機 / In Taiwan, more and more manufacturers have been established with remarkable increase of operating and production costs. In the course of economic transitional period and due to the pressure of consumerism, the pioneers of Taiwan Economic Miracles, small and medium-size enterprise, were forced to move or expand their activities aboard. This has resulted to the severe drop of total premium of non-life insurance and eventually negatively impacted to the market growth in recent years. That was the reason why the chairman of Taiwanese Non-Life Insurance Association, Mr. T.M. Shih, appealed to all members for terminating the unhealthy competition on the premium pricing in order to prevent the industry total premium falls less than New Taiwan Dollars one hundred billion (NT$100 billion) in 2010. Benefiting from the participation of Taiwan in World Trade Organization (WTO), some Taiwanese insurers have sailed with the globalization trend to seek for new market of Blue Ocean in overseas. In contrary to the rivals of western insurers, beside the Mainland China, Southeast Asia countries stand with similar culture and are close to geographical factors to us, particularly Vietnam which becomes the country of a preferred investment destination. In addition, it is also because Vietnamese government has determined to Reform Policy to opening-up market to foreign investors, taken positive actions to against the depreciation of Vietnamese currency (Dong) as well as attracted a large amount of foreign direct investment (FDI). There were great achievements of high economic growth in past consecutive years in general, and the successful ratio of two-(2)-digit growth in Vietnamese non-life insurance sector in particular. Taiwan is the first position of FDI in terms of accumulated capital since 1988 to present. Stepping forward to this investment wave, the Taiwanese insurers will be able to take the advantage of these investors who will become the major business supporters in Vietnam. Vietnam has become the 150th member of WTO since 2007 and opening the insurance market is one of the commitments of accession. In order to guide the newcomers on insurance industry, several decrees and circulars have been promulgated and implemented accordingly. To demonstrate their efficient governmental policy, the Vietnamese Authority keeps considering and issuing a number of insurance business licenses to foreign investors. The market leader of non-life insurers in Taiwan, Fubon Insurance, ahead overcame the barriers to secure for the approval from Vietnamese government and established its subsidiary in 2008. Referring to the successful pattern of Fubon Insurance in Vietnam, this thesis commences from the research of Vietnamese macroeconomic, analysis of Vietnam insurance market and performance of Fubon Insurance Vietnam Company, in addition with the method of Potter Five Force and SWOT analysis respectively, the thesis will be concluded with the business opportunities and suggestions to the non-life insurers who are interested in Vietnam insurance market for further consideration. Key words: Vietnam, Taiwan, Insurance, business opportunity

摘要 我國自民國91年4月實施財產保險費率自由化三階段，整個產險業界保費，有逐年下滑的趨勢，但於民國86年經由主管機關，核准由產險公司承做的傷害險，保費卻有逐漸累積的趨勢，在民國98年保費收入已達105億，約為當年度產值10.4%，讓產險業界對產險經營健康險的未來，有相當大的鼓舞，期待成為潛力的險種。 健康險開放產險經營，以一年期以下的健康險經營為主，與壽險長年期健康險不同；壽險業健康險近年來大幅度的成長，就民國98年看，有近29.7%的成長，且有不錯的平均損失率；如何增進核保與理賠技術、選擇行銷健康險的利基點，及透過壽險公司學習經營管理經驗等，成了健康險的新加入者－「產險業界」重要的課題，本論文以此為研究課題，以期可以更瞭解產險業者產值擴增的可能機會。 本論文透過產險及壽險的比較，探討產險業者經營的優點及可能面臨的相關問題，不僅積極業務發展，並了解潛在的風險，做到足夠風險防範的管理；接著再透過個案公司的健康險發展做法，在不同的金融控股公司性質及通路特性，做為其它業者在健康險發展的觀摩和可能的借鏡。最後，經本文研究後，提出個人的建議，希望在產險業者、主管機關的共同努力之下，除了讓產險業界正面的發展，更提供消費者多一個風險轉移的管道。 / Since Taiwan’s Non-life Rate Deregulation Plan has put into practice effectively from April 1, 2002 with three phases, there is a descending tendency in total premiums. In 1997, property insurance industry was approved by competent authority to provide personal accident insurance services. Instead of decreasing, the accumulated premium in Personal Accident Insurance had increased gradually. In 1998, the premium income had reached 10.5 billion, about 10.4% of total premium income in non-life insurance industry. The result quite inspired us to expect well performance in providing health insurance, the potential insurance in the future, by non-life insurance companies. The major insurance period of health insurance provided by non-life insurance companies is one year or less than one year, differing from the health insurance sold in life insurance companies. There is substantial growth of health insurance in life insurance in recent years. In 2009, there was nearly 29.7% increase with good average loss ratio. It was the important issues of non-life insurance companies to improve skills of underwriting and claiming, select niche in health insurance marketing etc, so we select it as the main research topic of this paper. The purpose of this study was to find out the advantages and possible risks in non-life insurance companies when they are running health insurance. Not only to develop business vigorously but also to understand potential risks and manage it well. Then, the paper takes the health insurance development progress of the corporation in the case to offer new perspective to ponder over some potential problems when other non-life insurance companies are developing health insurance. Last but not least, this paper proposed some personal opinions, hoping that non-life insurance companies, competent authority could make joint efforts, in addition to making non-life insurance industry progress positively, this research also providing another risk transfer method to consumers.

本論文乃將財務學上之選擇權訂價模式應用于保險經營方面，其中主要牽涉到理論的 介紹、轉換和應用，全文共分五章： 第一章：結論 其中包括研究背景及動機、研究流程和目的、研究範圍以及全文概述。 第二章：Black-Scholes 選擇權訂價模式 其中包括選擇權之意義、Black-Scholes OPM、BOPM、Compound OPM 及B-S OPM 放寬 假設的情形。 第三章： B-S OPM在產險經營之應用 包括單一期且負責固定下產險公司股價之衡量，逐步擴展到單一期負債變動下產險公 司股價之衡量及考慮多期且加入成本下之衡量，模式內參數之估計，以及產險公司OP M 的經營意義與應用。 第四章：研究設計和結果分析 包括研究假設和限制、研究方法和架構、實質報酬率常態分配之檢定、資料搜集及處 理，以及研究結果和分析。 第五章：結論與建議 包括本文結論與未來研究方向之建議。

第一章緒論，旨在說明本文的研究動機與目的，介紹研究方法及文獻探討的部份。第二章美日兩國產險費率監理制度之探討，說明費率監理制度種類及自由費率之範疇，探討規章費率和自由費率實施理由，並研究美日兩國產險費率監理制度及其業者經營之道。第三章我國費率監理制度之探討，闡明我國現行產險費率法規及監理制度，並探討現行費率監理制度對我國業者經營管理之影響。第四章我國實施費率自由化之條件，首先介紹文獻中曾論及費率自由化的研究報告，根據文獻的條件，後述我國費率自由化所應具備的條件。第五章費率自由化下產險公司管理經營之因應對策，論述我國費率監理制度改變後，對產險公司經營管理之影響及產險公司因應之道。第六章結論與建議，綜合本文所述，對於產險業者因應費率自由化的政策做一結論；並提供建議予保險監理機關和保險業者，期能健全保險市場之發展。

保險業的清償能力一直是保險監理機關關心的重點，保險公司一旦失卻清償能力，所影響的將不只是該公司，還有龐大的保戶及社會大眾。自西元1988年開始，即有許多學者提出早期預警模型，針對保險公司的清償能力作預測，希望可以及早發覺問題保險公司，直到西元1994年，開始有學者以類神經網路作為預測工具，結果發現，其預測準確度較過去多篇文獻所認為的邏輯斯迴歸來的精確。 　　本論文的目的在利用新的類神經網路建構保險公司失卻清償能力的早期預警系統，並將其結果與邏輯斯迴歸之結果作比較，樣本為美國產險公司，實證結果顯示，若以類神經網路作為預測的工具，在預測破產公司方面，其結果較邏輯斯迴歸好；但若是在預測健全公司方面，則為邏輯斯迴歸較好。另外，就整體的預測準確度而言，則以類神經網路的預測結果較好。 / The solvency of insurance industry plays an important role in society and has been the focus of insurance regulation. The insurer insolvency will affect not only company itself, but also the policyholders and society. The better method up to 1994 to identify insurer insolvencies in most prior researches is logistic regression. Some scholars use neural networks to predict insurer insolvencies. The result showed that neural network performed better than logistic regression model. 　　The purpose of this paper aims to construct an early warning system for property and casualty insurer insolvencies prediction and to compare the predictive ability of neural network and logistic regression model. The results show that neural network performs better than logistic regression model in classifying insolvent insurers. On contrast, logistic regression model performs better in classifying solvent insurers. Overall, the neural network performs better than its counterpart based on all sample firms.

1980年代世界各國的金融保險業興起一股自由化的風潮，而我國也在1986 年給予美商保險公司國民待遇，1992開放國人設立保險公司，1994年開放所有外商保險公司來台設立分公司，自此申請設立保險公司完全自由化。 本研究採用資料包絡分析法計算效率值，並使用「大邊界」的觀念建構出單一效率邊界，探討我國產險公司在開放保險市場前後的效率變動情形。本研究的主要結果如下：1.根據單變量無母數統計分析，整體產險業與開放前本國舊產險公司，其純技術效率值在開放後均大於開放前且達到顯著水準；其規模效率值在開放後則小於開放前且達到顯著性，表示市場的開放對我國產險業確實有影響。2.新產險公司的整體技術效率值、純技術效率值與規模效率值均顯著高於舊產險公司，顯示這些新進入的外商產險公司其全球化的經驗較我國舊產險公司更成熟。3.在控制相關公司特性後，Tobit迴歸分析的結果發現，市場開放與產險業之經營效率呈現負向關係，顯示單純的市場開放並無法增加產險業者之經營效率。本研究結果說明在市場開放後，產險業者欲增加經營效率，必須在產品創新，通路流暢下功夫才能增加經營效率。 / Since 1980s, all over the world has been emerging a trend of deregulation and liberalization of financial insurance industry. At the same time, Taiwan also started to open the property-liability insurance market gradually. First, in 1986, Taiwan treated the US insurers as the local company; then, in 1992, opening the market for the new local insurers, and in 1994, Taiwan fully deregulated the property-liability insurance industry. This research applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure efficiency scores, and applied Grand Frontier to measure the trend of efficiency change before and after deregulation. The major findings of this research are as follows：(1) base on the univariate statistic analysis, the overall property-liability insurance industry and the incumbent insurers reveal a higher pure technology efficiency score in the post-deregulation than that of before-deregulation; however, the scale efficiency score was denoted the opposite situation in post and before deregulation ear, and both of the statistical results are significant. The findings support deregulation has some effect on the efficiency of property-liability insurance industry. (2) The new entries have a higher efficiency score in both overall technology efficiency and pure technology than the incumbents; the result implies that those foreign property-liability insurers with their global experience do perform better efficient management than those of local incumbents. (3) After controlling the characteristics of the insurers and some other variables, Tobit regression analysis illustrated a negative relationship between deregulation and efficiencies. The finding implies that deregulation itself won’t increase the efficiency of the industry. Therefore, the implication of this research suggests that the insurers should compete with others in product innovations and distribution facilitations in order to increase the efficiencies.

本文結合動態財務分析（Dynamic Financial Analysis, DFA）與演化策略演算法(Evolution Strategy, ES)找尋產險公司最佳的投資比率。本文模擬產險公司的25年的營運情形，將各資產價格變化以隨機模型建構的概念帶入，加入損失分配並考慮多重期間的資產配置比率重分配(re-allocation)等條件，在建立目標方程式後，運用演化策略演算法求得最佳的資產配置比率。 / In the research, the tools we take are the dynamic financial analysis( DFA ) system and the evolution strategy algorithm( ES ), which can be used to find the best investment ratio for insurance companies. The whole content of this article demonstrates the condition of property-casualty insurance companies in the 25 years. It takes place of the change of prices in every item of the asset by some kind of stochastic models, then, takes notice of the distribution of loss and re-allocation, sets a objective function for the goal to find the best ratio of the asset allocation by ES.

在產物保險的經營里有一項相當大的負債，稱之為賠款準備金(Loss Reserve)，該項 準備金之估提系由于產險公司于處理賠案時，限于技術上、時間上或手續上的關系， 使得一些賠案在會計年度終了時往往尚未結案，為了能真正反映產險公司的財務結構 及經營實況，不使應歸屬于本年度之賠款，成為以后年度的負擔，致影響其財務上的 健全性，而須確實提存之。 然陪款準備金之估列除涉及及精算上之技術層面外，尚受一些經濟上之外生變數如利 率、通貨膨脹率、匯率的影響，以及保險公司管理當局的經常態度而定。對于保險公 司的經營深表關心者除保險監理機關外，尚有保險公司的股東、稅務機關等，但因彼 此的職責及關切的利益不同，所以期望保險公司經營結果的態度亦就互異，而賠款準 備金因本身即具有估計的性質，自然就成為保險公司管理當局用來調節盈余的工具。 為此；本文即要選定一些外生變數及與產險業賠款準備提存有關的因素，以本國產險 業七十年度至七十七年度的財政部年度檢查報告作為資料分析的來源，利用多變量分 析方法中之回歸分析以檢定該等變數與賠款準備誤差形成間之關系，供保險監理機關 及產險業者參考。 研究結果發現，在GLM 模型中，除匯率一項因素外，其餘變數在90% 信賴區間下，均 具顯著水準。而在虛擬變數模型下的檢定結果則為在90% 信賴區間下，匯率及肯尼比 率不具顯著性，另利率因素接近顯著水準。但經F 檢定發現各產險公司對賠款準備提 存行為無顯著性的差別存在。最后藉著利用逐步回歸的方法，建立本研究之最佳回歸 模式。