財務危機模型的研究一般納入財務正常公司與財務危機公司兩者當樣本，探討區分危機與正常公司的因素，本研究則進一步以財務危機公司為樣本，探討在財務危機公司中區分舞弊公司與正常經營公司的基本因素。 本研究從財務危機公司中，分出財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司，因此研究樣本包含發生舞弊的財務危機公司與正常經營而發生財務危機的公司。研究變數則從文獻篩選23個財務解釋變數，以及13個公司治理解釋變數，運用羅吉斯迴歸法進行實證，結果顯示3個財務變數和1個公司治理變數在區分財務危機公司中的財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司有顯著的區別能力，公司治理變數的董監事持股比率尤其顯著。 / Financial distress prediction is usually based on both financial distressed firms and non-distressed firms. Based on financial distressed firms, this study further investigates the factors distinguishing financial fraud firms from non-fraud firms. The sample includes fraud and no-fraud firms while both are financial distressed. Twenty-three financial and thirteen corporate governance variables are surveyed from literature. The empirical result of logit regression shows that three financial variables and one corporate governance variable are significant factors in distinguishing fraud from no-fraud firms in distressed companies. Especially, the percentage of holding stocks of board of directors is the most significant variable.

永續發展的概念現今已被運用於都市，其中，都市綠地在環境、生態、景觀、社會各層面之機能皆可提升都市永續性，在快速的都市化下，都市內綠地減少，土地利用變遷帶來之環境衝擊影響已自個體單元累積到全球。然而，過去研究中未有關注在綠地的變化趨勢與其他土地利用間的互動關係，以及在不同區域下的變化差異。因此，本研究採用GIS和景觀指數看在1995年至2006年間台北都會區綠地變遷趨勢，並分區探討土地利用間的互動關係，最後藉由二元羅吉斯迴歸分析綠地變化可能原因。 研究結果顯示，在1995年至2006年間，台北都會區整體發展是建地增加，林地也呈上升趨勢，而草地是土地利用轉移下被犧牲掉最多的土地，綠地轉移成其他土地利用情形以都會邊緣地區最嚴重。不同綠地型態在1995年至2006年間的變遷仍有差異，林地在整個台北都會區屬於景觀中的基質，主導性未受動搖，僅在都會中心減少並受破壞；而農地面積略微下降，呈破碎化發展，尤其以都會中心外圍區農地被破壞情形最明顯；草地面積亦下降，破碎化情形較農地更嚴重，在都會郊區、次中心之草地被破壞嚴重，草地各方面機能降低。透過二元羅吉斯迴歸分析發現自然環境、社會經濟與計畫環境皆影響台北都會區的綠地變遷。根據研究結果，建議未來政府於都市計畫上應將綠地空間納入考量，對於不同綠地型態應有不同管制措施，考量各區域綠地型態之差異性，以及自然環境、社會經濟和計畫環境對於綠地變遷的影響，以促進都市朝向永續發展。 / The concept of sustainable development has been applied in cities. Urban green space plays an important role in enhancing the sustainability of the city in regards to the environment, ecology, landscape and society aspects. Under rapid urbanization, green space has greatly declined in cities. Environmental impact resulting from land use change has grown from local to global proportions. However, researches did not pay attention to interactions between green spaces and other land-use change trends or different types of change in different areas. This research used GIS and landscape metrics to investigate the green space change trend and interactions among different land use types in the Taipei metropolitan area from 1995 to 2006. Furthermore, this research analyzed possible reasons that may have caused green space change through logistic regression. The results showed that, from 1995 to 2006, the built up area and the forest increased in Taipei Metropolitan Area; however, the grass decreased because of land use change. Urban fringe was the place that green space changed to other land-use most. There were differences of land use change for different types of green space. Forest was the matrix in the landscape of Taipei metropolitan area. It still kept the predominant role, only decreased and was destroyed in the center of metropolitan area. Farmland slightly decreased and became fragmented, especially in the periphery of the urban center. Grassland area decreased and became fragmented much more than farmland. In suburb and sub-center, grassland was destroyed seriously and became less functional. Through binary logistic regression, the study found that natural environment, socio-economic and government planning do have influence on green space changes in the Taipei metropolitan area. According to the result of the study, the recommendation was that government should take green space into consideration when doing urban planning. For different types of green space and different areas, the government needs to have different measures and needs to consider the impact factors of green space change in order to accelerate sustainable development in cities.

隨著經濟繁榮和網絡發展的日新月異，線上線下每時每刻都產生龐大數據，其中約有80%的文字、影像等非結構化數據，如何量化和採取適合的分析方法，成為有效提取有價值信息及對其加以利用的關鍵。針對文字類型的資料，本文提出探索性資料分析方法，並以《新青年》雜誌的語言變化為例，呈現如何選取文本特徵并对其量化及分析的過程。 首先，本文以卷為分析單位，多角度量化《新青年》雜誌各卷的文本結構，包括文本用字、用句、文言和白虛字使用以及常用字詞共用等方面，通過多種圖表相結合的呈現方式，窺探《新青年》雜誌語言變化歷程以及轉變特點。這其中既包括了對文言文到白話文轉變機制的探索，也包括白話語言演化的探索。其次，根據各卷初探的結果，尋找可區隔文言文和白話文兩種語言形式的文本特徵變數，再以《新青年》第一卷和第七卷為訓練樣本，結合主成分和羅吉斯迴歸，對文、白兩種語言形式的文章進行分類訓練，再利用第四卷進行測試。結果證實，所提取的文本變數能夠有效實現對文、白兩種語言形式的文章的區分。此外，本文亦根據前述初探結果以及人文學者經驗，探索《新青年》雜誌後期語言形式的變化，即從五四運動時期的白話文至以「紅色中文」為特徵的白話文（二戰之後中國使用的白話文）的變化。以第七卷和第十一卷為樣本進行訓練，結果證實這兩卷語言形式存在明顯區別；並加入台灣《聯合報》和中國大陸的《人民日報》進行分類預測，發現兩類報刊的語言偏向有明顯差異，值得後續深入研究。 / Tremendous data are produced every day, due to the rapid development of computer technology and economics. Unstructured data, such as text, pictures, videos, etc., account for nearly 80 percent of all data created. Choosing appropriate methods for quantifying and analyzing this kind of data would determine whether or not we can extract useful information. For that, we propose a standard operating process of exploratory data analysis (EDA) and use a case study of language changes in New Youth Magazine as a demonstration. First, we quantify the texts of New Youth magazine from different perspectives, including the uses of words, sentences, function words, and share of common vocabulary. We aim to detect the evolution of modern language itself as well as changes from traditional Chinese to modern Chinese. Then, according to the results of exploratory data analysis, we treat the first and seventh volumes of New Youth magazine for training data to develop classification model and apply the model to fourth volume (i.e., testing data). The results show that the traditional Chinese and modern Chinese can be successfully classified. Next, we intend to verify the changes from modern Chinese of the May 4th Movement to those by advocating Socialism. We treat the seventh volume and eleventh volume of New Youth magazine as training data and again develop a classification model. Then we apply this model to the United Daily News from Taiwan and People’s Daily from Mainland China. We found these two newspapers are very different and the style of United Daily News is closer to that of seventh volume, while the style of People’s Daily is more like that of eleventh volume. This indicates that the People’s Daily is likely to be influenced by the Soviet Union.

原住民農耕知識乃長期適應自然環境，並與自然達成平衡關係之農耕方式，因此藉由探討原住民農耕知識，得提供高山農業政策上的建議。惟偏向質性的原住民知識，需萃取、轉化為科學形式，方能利用。是以，本研究以地理資訊系統為基礎、利用土地適宜性分析與羅吉斯迴歸為方法，設計一套適用於數位化原住民農耕知識的策略。此策略為一個迭代的循環，包含蒐集、轉換、分析與檢視的程序。首先，以量化方式蒐集原住民農耕知識，次將知識轉換成空間資料的形式，再透過分析將知識轉化成有意義的資訊，並以視覺化方式展示分析成果，而分析成果可用以檢視知識蒐集的完整性、檢驗知識轉換後的正確性，進而以為基礎，針對興趣點再度蒐集知識，如此反覆操作上述程序。以土地適宜性分析為核心之策略，可用以探究原住民農耕區位選取知識；以羅吉斯迴歸為主軸之策略，則以個別農耕地為基礎，驗證農耕行為與邊坡穩定性之關聯。本研究以尖石泰雅族部落為研究區域。研究發現此數位化原住民農耕知識策略是可行的，得以有效地達到原住民農耕知識蒐集、分析及展示的目標。數位化後的原住民農耕知識具體而明確，可作為相關政策之參考。 / Indigenous knowledge of farming is empirical rules based on a long-term interaction between human and organism which benefit to each other. As a result, by discussing indigenous knowledge of farming, it could provide positive suggestions for the cultivation on slope land. However, indigenous knowledge tends to be qualitative rather than quantitative. Thus, we need to translate it into a scientific formats so as to take use of it. Consequently, the paper which is based on GIS, utilizes land use suitability analysis and logistic regression aims to establish a strategy for digitizing indigenous knowledge of farming. Actually, the strategy is an iterative circle with the procedure of extraction, translation, analysis and review. Firstly, investigate indigenous knowledge of farming in quantitative way. Secondly, translate it into layers. Then, turn the fragmentary data into meaningful information, and illustrate it on the map. Finally, review the result whether it is comprehensive and reliable. We used land use suitability analysis as the strategy to explore indigenous knowledge of farming site selection. Similarly, we use logistic regression as the strategy to demonstrate the correlation between the practice of farming and slope stability. The Atayal communities in Jianshih village was used for testing of the above strategy. In conclusion, the strategy for digitizing indigenous knowledge of farming is feasible for investigating, analyzing and visualizing the indigenous knowledge of farming. Therefore, the result is quite clear and specific as an important supplement to policy.

本研究旨在利用風險管控的方式，來協助電子製造業建立一套可有效的維持產品的綠色品質並降低產品的綠色風險的綠色品質風險管控模型，使得企業不致因產品在出貨後，被檢測出違反RoHS指令而使企業被罰以巨額款項並損失商譽。 回顧1997年12月聯合國氣候變化框架公約(UNFCCC)參加國第三次會議在日本京都舉行，並簽定了[京都議定書]之後，各國陸續制定出其各自的環保法令，其中又以歐盟於2003年2月通過並於2006年7月1日起實施限制鉛，鎘，汞，六價鉻，多溴聯苯，多溴聯苯醚等六項有害物質的RoHS指令的影響範圍最大且最為直接的影響到我國的產業，從而引發起了本研究的動機。 本研究透過與訪談個案的合作，實際從分析個案的產品研發生產的作業中，由影響RoHS的角度從作業一直剖析到管控內容，進而找到會影響RoHS品質不良的16個風險因子，並透過建立的監控系統來進行風險因子的資料採樣，最後經由羅吉斯迴歸模型，建立出一套風險計算模型，以連接RoHS風險因子的監控系統而成為一套綠色品質風險管控模型。 / The objective of this research is to help electronic manufacturers to establish a Green Quality Risk Management Model, which can effectively keep green quality and decrease green quality risk of products. Consequently, companies can prevent huge amount of fine and goodwill impairment caused by RoHS violation of their shipments. After the participants of UNFCCC held the third meeting in Kyoto, Japan and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, every country created its environmental regulations in secession. Among those regulations, the RoHS directive, which prohibits the usage of Lead, Mercury, Cadmium, Hexavalent chromium (Cr6+), Polybrominated biphenyls (PBB)and Polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE), adopted in February 2003 and activated in January 2006 by the European Union resulted in most pervasive and direct impact on Taiwanese industry, consequently creating the incentive for this research. By the cooperation of case interview, this research analyze the research and development operations of interviewees with the perspectives from primary operations to floor control in order to identify sixteen risk factors of RoHS quality, and sample the data of risk factors with established control system. Finally, a green quality risk management model was created by the establishment of a risk computation model in connection with RoHS risk factor control system was established using Logistic Regression model.

當資料屬於類別型的長期追蹤資料（Longitudinal categorical data）時，除了可以透過廣義估計方程式（General estimate equation, GEE）來求解模型參數估計值外，潛在移轉分析（Latent transition analysis, LTA）法也是一種可行的資料分析方法。若資料的期數不多，也可以選擇將資料適度分群後使用羅吉斯迴歸分析（Logistic regression）法。當探討的反應變數為二元（Binary）型態，且觀察對象於每一期提供多個測量變數值的情況之下，廣義估計方程式與羅吉斯迴歸分析法的使用，文獻上常見先將所有的測量變數值加總後，以「中位數」作為分類的切割點。不同於以上兩種方法，潛在移轉分析法則是直接使用原始資料來取得觀察對象的潛在狀態相關訊息，因此與前二者的作法不同，可能導致後續的各項分析結果有所差異存在。 為了能夠了解造成中位數分類法與移轉分析法差異的可能因素，我們架構在潛在移轉分析法的模型下，以不同的參數設定來進行電腦模擬，比較各參數條件下的兩分類方法差異。結果發現各潛在狀態下的測量變數反應機率形式、第一期潛在狀態的組成比例等皆會對兩分類方法是否具有相同分類有所影響。另外，透過分析「青少年媒體使用與健康生活調查」的實際資料得知，潛在移轉分析會將大部分的觀察對象歸屬於「網路成癮」，而中位數分類法則是將大部分的觀察對象歸屬於「無網路成癮」。此外，可以注意到「沮喪」、「線上情色每星期平均使用天數」、及「父母相處狀況」這幾個控制變數與各分組結果的關聯性，於上述三種資料分析方法中有所不同。 / Several methods can be used to analyze longitudinal categorical data, as among them Latent Transition Analysis (LTA), and Generalized Linear Models estimated by Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) probably the most popular. In addition, if the number of periods is two, then with certain grouping of data, the Logistic Regression can also be applied to perform the analyses. When there are more than one manifest response variable for each study subject, LTA is able to classify the subjects in terms of the original manifest response variables and proceeds with necessary analyses. On the other hand, GEE method and Logistic Regression lack the flexibility, and require certain transformation to transform the manifest response variables into a categorical response variable first. One common way to form a binary response is to sum all manifest variables, and then taking median as a cut-point. In this study, we explore the differences of the classification resulted from LTA directly and using median as a cut-point through simulations. An empirical study is also provided to illustrate the classification differences, and the differences on the subsequent analyses using LTA, GEE method, and Logistic Regression approach.

『國際化』對於台灣企業而言，已是必然的趨勢。因此，如何成功地進入國外市場？可以說是目前台灣企業最重要的課題。而對一個想要進入國外市場的企業而言，除了選擇所要進入的國家外，更重要的是『進入模式』的決定。一個適當的進入模式對於企業往後的國際營運影響深遠，不僅直接影響到該市場的成敗，對於企業的其他市場亦具有間接的效應。因為在全球整合性的競爭下，市場間的競爭關連性上升，一個市場的成敗往往是在另一個市場上優、劣勢的來源。 目前學者對於影響企業決定『進入模式』的因素看法並不一致。不過大致仍可歸納出內部與外部因素兩個方面(Root, 1987)。而『企業生命週期』可視為企業內部因素的表徵，因此，企業的組織階段勢必對進入模式的決定有某種程度的影響。而由於『企業生命週期』的概念較為普遍，對於台灣一般的企業而言，實用性較高。因此，本研究的動機乃是基於探討『企業生命週期』與最適『進入模式』間的關連性。而影響進入模式的因素除了組織內部因素外，還有企業外部的環境因素，尤其是地主國的環境因素，對進入模式的決策更具有關鍵性的影響。因此，本研究亦將地主國的環境變數納入考量，以提高研究模型的解釋能力。 基於以上研究動機，本研究有以下主要目的：1.探討並整理『企業生命週期』與國外市場『進入模式』相關的文獻。2.以『企業生命週期』理論為出發點，發展一個觀念架構，用以描述企業的組織階段與地主國環境變數，對於國外市場進入模式決策的影響。3.以台灣企業為對象，針對本研究所發展的觀念架構，進行實證分析，並提出研究結果以供業界及後續研究參考。 本文以郵寄問卷方式，對於台灣企業進行實證研究；所採用分析方法包括：敘述性統計、因素分析(Factor analysis)、集群分析(Cluster analysis)、變異數分析、鑑別分析(Discriminant analysis)、t-test 以及 Logistic Regression Analysis 等等。研究結果顯示： 一、目前從事國際化的台灣企業，根據其組織內部情況，我們可將其劃分為創業期、加速期、制度化期、以及再生期四個階段。 二、企業生命週期對進入模式之影響 1.再生階段相對於創業階段而言，在出口對其他、出口對生產據點、以及出口對銷售據點三種情況下，具有顯著性影響；也就是說在以上三種情況下，再生階段會比創業階段傾向採用較高涉入的進入模式。 2.加速階段與制度化階段相對於創業階段而言，只在出口對銷售據點時，具有顯著性影響；亦即，在考慮出口與銷售據點兩種進入模式時，加速階段或制度化階段均會比創業階段傾向採用銷售據點形式之進入模式。 3.若考慮銷售對生產據點，或者是合資生產對獨資生產據點時，則不論是加速階段、制度化階段或是再生階段，相對於創業階段而言，均未有顯著性影響。 三、地主國環境因素對進入模式之影響 1.關於地主國環境變動程度之因素，實證結果雖具顯著影響，但與本研究假設相衝突。因此，只可經由文獻之整理加以推論（詳見 P.98），而無法獲得明確之結論。 2.不論是考慮出口對其他、出口對銷售據點、或是出口對生產據點，當地市場之規模與文化相似性具有顯著性影響。亦即，當市場規模愈大或兩地文化相似愈高時，企業會傾向採用涉入程度較出口為高的進入模式。 3.若考慮同為生產據點的合資生產與獨資生產兩類進入模式時，企業對當地環境之熟悉程度具有顯著影響。亦即，當企業對所進入的市場環境愈熟悉，其愈傾於採用獨資生產的進入模式。反之，若企業對當地環境較陌生時，則會傾向以合資的方式進入該市場，以分散投資風險。 4.若以出口對生產據點以及銷售據點對生產據點而言，當地市場之吸引力具有顯著性影響。亦即，相對於出口或銷售據點，在當地市場吸引力愈大時，企業會傾向採用生產據點形式進入模式，以獲取在當地投資設廠之利益與優惠。 / Internationalization is the developmental trend of Taiwan business. The choice of the entry mode for foreign markets play a vital role in global competition.According to other literatures, we find that the factors effect this choice can devide into two part: internal and external factors. And the business life cycle express the internal ones. According to these reasons,our research has the following porpose: 1.Review the relevant literatures about the business life cycle and entry mode. 2.To develope a concept infrastructure to describe the influence of business life cycle and host country environment for entry mode. 3.Using the Taiwan business as empirical respondents to approve our concept infrastucture, and give some suggestions to Taiwan entrepreneur.

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授信業務是銀行主要獲利來源之一，隨著國際化趨勢以及政府積極推動經濟自由，國內金融環境丕變，金融機構之授信業務競爭日漸激烈，加上近年來國內經濟成長趨緩，又於千禧年爆發本土性金融風暴，集團企業財務危機猶如骨牌效應ㄧ樁接ㄧ樁，原因在於大企業過度信用擴張，過高槓桿操作，導致負債比率上升，面臨償債困難；還有銀行對企業放款之授信審核常有大企業不會倒閉之迷思。故如何找出企業財務危機出現之徵兆，及早防範於未然，將是本研究在建立企業授信之申請進件模型的重點之ㄧ。 此外，2002年新修定的巴塞爾資本協定主在落實銀行風險管理，國際清算銀行決定於2006年正式實行新巴塞爾協定，我國修正的「銀行資本適足性管理辦法」自民國九十五年十二月三十一日起實施，故本國銀行需要依據本身的商品特色、市場區隔、客戶性質、以及經營方式與理念等因素，去建制一套適合自己的內部風險評估系統。故本研究第二個重點即在於依據我國現有法令，做出一個符合信用風險基礎內部評等法要求之申請進件模型。 本研究使用某銀行有財務報表之企業授信戶，利用財報中的財務比率變數建立模型。先使用主成分分析將所有變數分為七大類，分別是企業之財務構面、經營能力、獲利能力、償債能力、長期資本指標、流動性、以及現金流量，再進行羅吉斯迴歸模型分析。 / Business loan is one of the main profits in the bank. But increasing business competition causes the loan process in the bank is not very serious, the bankers allow enterprise to expand his credit or has higher debt ratio, that would cause financial crises. The first point in this study is to find the symptom when enterprise has financial crises. The second point is that under the framework of New Basel Capital Accord〈Basel II〉, we try to build an application model that committed the domestic requirements. The bank should develop the fundamental internal rating-based approach that accords with its strategy、market segmentation、and customers type. This research paper uses financial variables〈ex. liquid ratio、debt ratio、ROA、ROE、… 〉to build enterprise application model. We use the principle component analysis to separate different factors which affect loan process： financial facet、ability to pay、profitability、management ability、long-term index、liquidity、and cash flow. Then, we show the result about these factors in the logistic regression model.

共變數的值會隨著時間而改變時，我們稱之為時間相依之共變數。時間相依之共變數往往具有重複測量的特性，也是長期資料裡最常見到的一種共變數形態；在對時間相依之共變數進行重複測量時，可以考慮每次測量的間隔時間相同或是間隔時間不同兩種情形。在間隔時間相同的情形下，我們可以忽略間隔時間所產生的效應，利用分組的Cox模式或是合併的羅吉斯迴歸模式來分析，而合併的羅吉斯迴歸是一種把資料視為“對象 時間單位”形態的分析方法；此外，分組的Cox模式和合併的羅吉斯迴歸模式也都可以用來預測存活機率。在某些條件滿足下，D’Agostino等六人在1990年已經證明出這兩個模式所得到的結果會很接近。 當間隔時間為不同時，我們可以用計數過程下的Cox模式來分析，在計數過程下的Cox模式中，資料是以“對象 區間”的形態來分析。2001年Bruijne等人則是建議把間隔時間也視為一個時間相依之共變數，並將其以B-spline函數加至模式中分析；在我們論文的實證分析裡也顯示間隔時間在延伸的Cox模式中的確是個很顯著的時間相依之共變數。延伸的Cox模式為間隔時間不同下的時間相依之共變數提供了另一個分析方法。至於在時間相依之共變數的預測方面，我們是以指數趨勢平滑法來預測其未來時間點的數值；利用預測出來的時間相依之共變數值再搭配延伸的Cox模式即可預測未來的存活機率。 / It is so called “time-dependent covariates” that the values of covariates change over time. Time-dependent covariates are measured repeatedly and often appear in the longitudinal data. Time-dependent covariates can be regularly or irregularly measured. In the regular case, we can ignore the TEL(time elapsed since last observation) effect and the grouped Cox model or the pooled logistic regression model is employed to anlalyze. The pooled logistic regression is an analytic method using the“person-period”approach. The grouped Cox model and the pooled logistic regression model also can be used to predict survival probablity. D’Agostino et al. (1990) had proved that pooled logistic regression model is asymptotically equivalent to the grouped Cox model. If time-dependent covariates are observed irregularly, Cox model under counting process may be taken into account. Before making the prediction we must turn the original data into“person-interval”form, and this data form is also suitable for the prediction of grouped Cox model in regular measurements. de Bruijne et al.(2001) first considered TEL as a time-dependent covariate and used B-spline function to model it in their proposed extended Cox model. We also show that TEL is a very significant time-dependent covariate in our paper. The extended Cox model provided an alternative for the irregularly measured time-dependent covariates. On the other hand, we use exponential smoothing with trend to predict the future value of time-dependent covariates. Using the predicted values with the extended Cox model then we can predict survival probablity.