本研究旨在瞭解目前臺北市國民中學校長空間領導、學校組織變革與教師效能的現況，以探討國中教師知覺校長空間領導、學校組織變革與教師效能之差異情形，俾以瞭解三個變項間之關聯 ，並採問卷調查法以臺北市公立國民中學教師為母群體，共發出828份問卷，回收721 份問卷，回收率為 87.1%，有效問卷共588 份，可用率為71.0%，以描述性統計、t 考 驗、單因子變異數分析、皮爾森積差相關、迴歸分析、以及結構方程模式等統計分析，並據分析結果作成以下結論： 一、臺北市國民中學校長空間領導達到中高程度表現，在「融入課程教學」層面的表現最佳，而「使用者共同參與」仍有精進空間。 二、臺北市國民中學學校組織變革達到中高程度，以「教育科技創新」層面認同度最高，而「組織文化」層面得分數較低。 三、臺北市國民中學教師效能達到高程度表現，以「教學策略效能」層面的表現最佳，「引導學生效能」之知覺程度較低。 四、臺北市國民中學教師在不同背景變項中( 男性、教師兼主任者、學校規模13-24班、校齡21-40年 )，在知覺校長空間領導行為上顯著較高。 五、臺北市國民中學教師在不同背景變項中( 男性、教師兼主任者 )，在知覺學校組織變革上顯著較高。 六、臺北市國民中學教師在不同背景變項中( 男性、師範院校、教師兼主任者)，在知覺教師效能上顯著較高。 七、國民中學校長空間領導、學校組織變革與教師效能具有顯著正相關。 八、校長空間領導與學校組織變革對教師效能有預測力。 九、臺北市國民中學校長空間領導、學校組織變革與教師效能具有良好的適配度，且學校組織變革在校長空間領導與教師效能間扮演完全中介，故國民中學校長空間領導可透過學校組織變革對教師效能產生正向的間接影響。 本研究依研究結果提出建議，以供教育行政機關、學校決策以及未來研究參考。 / The purpose of this study was to understand the relationship among Junior High School Principals' Space Leadership, School Organizational Change and Teacher Efficacy in Taipei City. To investigate the perceptions of junior high school teachers on the correlations among the three variables mentioned above. We employed questionnaire survey to investigate the subjects included public junior high school teachers in Taipei City. With the census-taking, we retrieved 721 from 828 questionnaires. The response rate of the questionnaire was 87% with the usable rate was 71% from 588 usable ones. The collected data was analyzed by using the statistical methods of descriptive statistics, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson product-moment correlation, regression analysis and structural equation modeling. According to the results, these conclusions were reached statistically as follows. 1. The performance of principals’ space leadership was above average in the junior high school schools.“Curriculum Integration ” was the best among the four dimensions of the junior high school principals’ space leadership in Taipei City, and there was advancement on the situation about “User Participation” remained. 2. The performance of school organizational change reached a medium-high level in the junior high schools. The dimensions of “innovation of educational technology ” was the highest among all, and lower scores on “organizational culture”. 3. Teachers in the junior high schools evaluated the school “teacher efficacy ”as high. The score was highest in the dimension of "efficacy for instructional strategies" and the lowest in the dimension of “efficacy for student engagement.” 4. Male teachers, teachers serving as directors, teachers in schools with the size of 13-24 classes, and school age between 21 and 40 years had higher evaluations on their practice of space leadership with regard to principals. 5. Male teachers and teachers serving as directors had higher evaluations on school organizational change. 6. Male teachers, teachers serving as directors, and teachers graduating from normal schools had higher evaluations on teacher efficacy. 7. The relationship among principals’ space leadership, school organizational change and teacher efficacy was positively correlated. 8. The principals’ space leadership showed significant predictability on school organizational change and teacher efficacy, particularly in the dimension of “Curriculum Integration ”and “ core competencies of members”. 9. The structural equation model showed the well goodness-of-fit among principals’ space leadership, school organizational change and teacher efficacy. The results revealed that school organizational change fully mediated, and had positive indirect effect on principals' space leadership and teacher efficacy. Suggestions had been made out from the results of this study for the reference of the education authority, decision-making of school administration, and further research.

本研究採⽤個案研究法進⾏研究，以臺北市五所學校，教師應⽤團隊合作學習模式作為研究個案，探討教師應⽤團隊合作學習模式後，其教師教學效能、教師⾓⾊定位與學知覺教學效能的情況。研究資料的蒐集⽅式分別為質性與量化兩種，質性部分有教師訪談內容，⽤以分析教師應⽤團隊合作學習後對於其教學效能之情況；量化部分使⽤教師教學效能調查問卷，透過學⽣填答知覺教師教學效能狀況。 研究結果顯⽰，學⽣知覺教師應⽤團隊合作學習模式中，國⼩與國中學⽣有顯著差異。研究者在質性資料中，歸納出教師透過團隊合作學習模式，能有效的執⾏其教學模式，包含：1. 規劃教學⽬標⼤綱，熟悉教材，設計教學；2. 透過團隊營運，調節班級經營，提⾼學⽣凝聚⼒；3. 明確的教師⾓⾊定位，團隊的權⼒釋放；4. 從過程中觀察與檢討，讓學⽣評定學習的過程與環境；5. 強化學⽣獨⽴思考，主動協助，提升表達能⼒；6. 凝聚共識，發展整合發表能⼒，培養團隊責任。最後，研究者據此提供建議，以供相關研究或課程參考。 / The purpose of this research was to investigate the students in their perceptions of teachers’ teaching effectiveness, role and teaching effectiveness of teacher after teachers applying Team-Based Learning in their teaching method of five schools in the Taipei city. Both qualitative research method and quantitative research method were employed in this study. Furthermore, qualitative data included interviews with 5 participants applying TBL teaching method in their teaching and quantitative data were collected and analyzed based on “Questionnaire of Teachers’ Teaching Effectiveness” which was given to students. These conclusions of this research were summarized below: (1) the outcome of students in their perception of teachers’ teaching effectiveness with TBL teaching method varied significantly from students’ age; (2) the researcher found that teachers make plans before teaching, enhance students’ interior cohesive force, give students opportunities to learn by themselves, discuss with students about their learning process, build an environment of teamwork and encourage students to express their opinion will improve teaching effectiveness of TBL teaching method.

本研究旨在瞭解臺北市公立國中校長正向領導、教師情緒勞務與學校效能的現況，並比較不同背景變項之國中教師知覺校長正向領導、教師情緒勞務與學校效能的差異情形，最後探討國中校長正向領導、教師情緒勞務與學校效能之關係。 本研究採問卷調查法進行研究，以臺北市之公立國中正式教師為對象，共發出552份問卷，回收495份，有效問卷474份，回收有效率85.86％。調查所得資料以IBM SPSS Statistics 22.0版電腦統計套裝軟體進行描述性統計、獨立樣本t檢定、單因子變異數分析、皮爾森積差相關以及多元逐步迴歸分析等統計方法進行分析。 本研究主要發現如下： 一、臺北市公立國中教師知覺校長正向領導為中高程度，以「善用正向溝通」之知覺程度最高，「賦予正向意義」之知覺程度最低。 二、臺北市公立國中教師知覺教師情緒勞務為中高程度，以「基本的情緒表達」之知覺程度最高，「情緒多樣性程度」之知覺程度最低。 三、臺北市公立國中教師知覺學校效能為中高程度，以「教師教學成效」之知覺程度最高，「學生學習表現」之知覺程度最低。 四、就臺北市公立國中教師知覺「校長正向領導」而言，「性別」、「年齡」、「現任職務」、「服務年資」、「校長性別」、「學校規模」與「學校歷史」皆為重要之影響因素，以男性、51歲以上、擔任主任或組長、服務年資21年以上、男性校長、學校規模24班以下與學校歷史31～50年之學校教師知覺程度較高。 五、就臺北市公立國中教師知覺「教師情緒勞務」而言，「學校規模」為重要之影響因素，以學校規模49班以上之學校教師知覺程度較高。 六、就臺北市公立國中教師知覺「學校效能」而言，「性別」、「現任職務」、「校長性別」與「學校歷史」皆為重要之影響因素，以男性、擔任主任或組長、男性校長與學校歷史50年以下之學校教師知覺程度較高。 七、校長正向領導、教師情緒勞務與學校效能呈現兩兩正相關情形。 八、校長正向領導、教師情緒勞務對學校效能具有預測作用，以校長正向領導之「賦予正向意義」構面的預測力最佳。 最後依據研究結果與結論，提出具體建議，以作為教育行政機關、國中校長、教師及未來研究之參考。 / The study aims to tap into the current situation of Taipei municipal junior high schools in terms of three aspects – principal positive leadership, teacher emotional labor, and school effectiveness. It also compares and analyzes junior high school teachers’ perceptions of the three aspects considering the teachers’ different background characteristics. Most importantly, the study explores the relationships among those three aspects of the schools. In order to conduct the study, a statistical survey was carried out, with a total of 552 questionnaires distributed to Taipei municipal junior high school teachers. In the end, 495 questionnaires were returned, but only 474 were valid responses – a response rate of 85.86%. The acquired data were later processed through IBM SPSS Statistics 22.0, for performing descriptive statistics, an independent samples t-test, a one-way analysis of variance, and carrying out Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysis. The results are as follows: 1.The degree to which Taipei municipal junior high school teachers perceive principal positive leadership styles is middle-high; among the different aspects of principal positive leadership, “engaging in positive communication” is the most perceived one while the aspect of “reinforcing positive meanings” is the least perceived. 2.The degree to which Taipei municipal junior high school teachers perceive their emotional labor is middle-high; among the different aspects of teacher emotional labor, “basic emotional expression” is the most perceived one while the aspect of “the amount of variety of emotions” is the least perceived. 3.The degree to which Taipei municipal junior high school teachers perceive school effectiveness is middle-high; among the different aspects of school effectiveness, “teachers’ teaching effectiveness” is the most perceived one while the aspect of “students’ learning achievement” is the least perceived. 4.Taipei municipal junior high school teachers’ perceptions of principal positive leadership can vary greatly with the teachers’ gender, age, current positions, seniority in school, the principals’ gender, school size, and school history. 5.Taipei municipal junior high school teachers’ perceptions of their emotional labor can vary greatly with school size. 6.Taipei municipal junior high school teachers’ perceptions of school effectiveness can vary greatly with the teachers’ gender, current positions, the principals’ gender, and school history. 7.Principal positive leadership, teacher emotional labor, and school effectiveness correlate positively with each other. 8.Principal positive leadership and teacher emotional labor can be used to predict school effectiveness; the strategy of principal positive leadership – “reinforcing positive meanings” – is the best predictor. Based on the above results, the study wraps up with concrete suggestions for institutions of educational administration, principals and teachers of junior high schools, as well as future research.

本研究旨在了解我國高級中學學生國際教育學習成效之全球公民資質力發展情形，其目的有四：（一）探討目前我國國際教育政策執行成效。（二）研究學生在國際教育政策執行後之學習成效。（三）分析不同背景學生在全球公民資質力上之差異。（四）探究目前國際教育推動四軌面向，影響學生在全球公民資質力之程度。 本研究採用問卷調查法，以103學年及104學年臺北市與高雄市申請SIEP計畫之高級中學計 17校，藉由研究者自編「我國高級中學學生國際教育學習成效之全球公民資質力調查問卷」進行調查，採立意取樣共發出1,200問卷，回收1,028份問卷，回收率86％，剔除無效問卷，有效問卷共計843份，有效率82％。調查所得資料以SPSS 22.0統計套裝軟體進行統計與分析，使用統計方法有描述性統計、單一樣本t檢定、獨立樣本t檢定、單因子變異數分析、Pearson積差相關與逐步多元迴歸分析，研究結論如下： 一、我國國際教育政策執行已有相當成效，然而在教師國際教育專業成長與全球公民適應力、競合力與反思力尚需加強。 二、學校參與國際教育計畫，提供國際時事相關訊息，鼓勵學生參加志工服務學習，融入社團關懷日，有助於提升學生全球公民資質力。 三、家長教育程度、學生出國經驗與第二外語能力對於學生全球公民資質力有顯著的影響。 四、臺北市與高雄市學生全球公民資質力並無顯著差異，顯示背景相似的學校在推動國際教育上，可達相同一定的水準。 五、加強教師國際專業知能與增加學校環境之外的國際教育推廣面向，以提升學生全球公民資質力。 根據以上研究結論，提出相關建議，俾提供對教育行政主管機關、學校與未來研究之參考。 / The purpose of this study is to understand the development of global citizenship as the effectiveness of senior high international education in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is as follows: (1) To explore the effectiveness of the international education policy in Taiwan. (2) To study the effectiveness of learning after the implementation of international education policy. (3) Analyze the differences in the quality of global citizenship for different backgrounds. (4) To explore the current international education to promote the four-track orientation that affects the scale of students’ global citizenship. In this study, the questionnaire survey was conducted in Taipei and Kaohsiung cities in the 103 academic year and 104 academic year. The survey was conducted by the researchers in the study of "International Education in High School Students' Learning Achievements." A total of 1,823 questionnaires were collected and the recovery rate was 86%. After the invalid questionnaires were removed, there were 843 questionnaires valid. The 82% of the survey results were analyzed by SPSS 22.0 statistical software. Using the statistical methods including descriptive statistics, one sample t test, independent sample t test,analysis of variance(one-way ANOVA), Pearson correlation and stepwise regression, the study has the following conclusions: 1.The implementation of international education policy in Taiwan has been quite effective, but teachers’ international professional knowledge, global citizenship adaptability, competition and reflection need to be strengthened. 2.The school participates in international education programs and provides related information about international affairs. It encourages students to take part in volunteering work and community care day, which helps to enhance students’ global citizenship. 3.The parents’ educational degree, the students’ experience of going abroad and the proficiency of the second language have significant impact on global citizenship. 4.There is no significant difference between students in Taipei or Kaohsiung in terms of global citizenship. The result indicates that schools that have similar backgrounds can reach the same level in promoting international education. 5.To enhance the student's global citizenship, we should strengthen teachers’ professional knowledge and extend the international education beyond the school district. Based on the above conclusions, relevant recommendations are made for the educational administration, for schools and for future research.

近年來，政府積極推動退休年金制度改革、組織改造、員額精簡及考績法修正案，隨之而來便是一波波退休潮；中階主管的大量退離，接踵而來的便是人才接軌的問題。行政院人事行政總處意識到人才落差及人員異動頻繁對機關產生的負面影響，並希望專員級人事人員於陞任主管前即具備擔任主管人員所需之核心職能，爰自2012年起針對人事人員開辦專員級人事人員進階職能培訓專班，基於人事體系具有「人事一條鞭」任免權較易統籌辦理的特性，因此，有較大的機會得落實將評鑑機制與陞遷發展作適度結合。 專員級人事人員進階職能培訓專班之評鑑結果如同考績及獎懲等人事資料記錄著當事人之工作表現及能力，同時對於後續之陞遷發展，亦將產生一定程度之影響，就人事人員來說，參與評鑑無疑是一項充滿壓力之挑戰。該專班自2012年開辦迄今，已邁入第5年，行政院人事行政總處於辦理期間對於專員人事班參訓人員之薦送遴選方式及評鑑內容均逐年進行滾動式修正，惟似乎仍有調整之空間。本研究主要是希望回歸到源頭，期透過訪談方式，瞭解學員對制度之看法，再就訪談資料進行分析研究，進而提供政策調整之參考。

摘 要 本研究旨在瞭解當前臺北市國民中學校長學習領導、教師專業發展及學校效能之現況；分析不同背景變項下，臺北市國民中學校長學習領導、教師專業發展及學校效能之差異與相關情形；探究臺北市國民中學校長學習領導、教師專業發展對於學校效能之預測情形。 本研究採用問卷調查法，並以臺北市公私立國民中學（含完全中學）之教師為研究對象，抽取46所學校，共計回收有效樣本為477份。問卷回收後分別以描述統計、獨立樣本t考驗、單因子變異數分析、積差相關、逐步多元迴歸等統計方法進行分析。根據研究結果將結論分析歸納如下： 一、國民中學教師對於校長學習領導之現況具中高度知覺。 二、國民中學教師對於教師專業發展之現況具高度知覺。 三、國民中學教師對於學校效能之現況具中高度知覺。 四、不同性別、年齡、服務年資、最高學歷與學校規模的國中教師在知覺校長學習領導上有顯著差異。 五、不同年齡與服務年資的國中教師在知覺教師專業發展上有顯著差異。 六、不同性別、現任職務、學校規模與學校性質的國中教師在知覺學校效能上有顯著差異。 七、國中校長學習領導、教師專業發展及學校效能均呈現顯著正相關。 八、校長學習領導、教師專業發展對學校效能具有預測作用；其中以「關注學生學習」向度的預測力最佳。 根據以上結論，提出具體建議，作為教育行政機關、校長、國中教育人員與未來研究之參考。 關鍵字：校長學習領導、教師專業發展、學校效能 / Abstract This study aims to investigate the current circumstances of principals’ learning leadership of junior high schools in Taipei, teacher professional development, and school effectiveness. By analyzing several background variables, the study does research on the differences and relationship among principals’ learning leadership , teacher professional development, and school effectiveness. Besides, it intends to understand the influence of principals’ learning leadership and teacher professional development on the prediction about school effectiveness. The research adopts questionnaire survey. The subjects of the survey are teachers in 46 junior high schools in Taipei, and the study contains 477 effective samples. The data was analyzed through descriptive statistics, independent sample t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson product-moment correlation, and multiple regression analysis. The findings based on the results of the research are as follows: 1. The perception of the junior high school teachers toward implementation of principals’ learning leadership is moderately high. 2. The perception of the junior high school teachers toward teacher professional development is high. 3. The perception of the junior high school teachers toward school effectiveness is moderately high. 4. There are significant differences in the perception of principals’ learning leadership in terms of different genders, ages, years of service, academic background ,and the scale of school. 5. There are significant differences in the perception of teacher professional development in terms of different ages, and years of service. 6. There are significant differences in the perception of school effectiveness in terms of different genders, duty, the scale of school, and public/private schools. 7. There is a significant positive correlation among the principals’ learning leadership, teacher professional development, and school effectiveness. 8. The junior high school principals’ learning leadership and teacher professional development have positive direct effect on school effectiveness, and “paying attention to students’ learning” manifests the best prediction. According to the research findings, a few specific suggestions are proposed for the reference of education administrative units, principals, teachers of junior high schools, and research staff engaging in future research. Keywords: principals’ learning leadership, teacher s’ professional development,school effectiveness

本研究旨在探討利用Big6技能教學於高中一年級學生小論文寫作課程學習成效，並根據研究結果提出閱讀教師對於小論文寫作教學之改善建議，提供高中教師日後進行專題式教學之參考。 本研究採準實驗研究法、觀察法、文件分析法及訪談法，以兩班高中一年級學生為研究對象，一班為接受「Big6技能」小論文寫作教學之實驗組學生，一班為接受傳統分段寫作教學之控制組學生，兩班學生皆由研究者進行教學，進行為期十週共十二堂之實驗教學課程，在教學前後，對研究對象實施前測、後測，藉以了解學習成效是否有顯著的差異。 依據資料分析與研究結果，歸納出以下結論： 一.小論文寫作主題課程內容規畫宜在Big6技能教學中加入分段寫作教學指導。 二.學生學習成效表現在量的提升有明顯效果，在質的提升未達顯著差異。 三.小論文寫作教學宜有教師社群協作進行指導。 最後，根據研究結果，提出對高中教師進行Big6技能小論文寫作教學及未來研究之建議。 / This study aims to discuss the application of learning Big Six Skills to high school students' learning effect on essay writing course. Based on the research results, reference to high school teachers of the essay writing course into the instruction for pupils is proposed. With experimental research, observation method, documentary analysis, and interview, two classes of High school first grade students are studied. Students in the same class as one experimental group. One class receives the instruction of Big Six Skills, the other class which as the control group receives traditional instruction in essay writing class. Both classes are instructed by the researcher for 12 sessions in 10 weeks. In order to understand whether the difference is significant or not, students are preceded pretest and post-test before and after the instruction. According to the data analysis and the research results, the following conclusions are summarized. 1.The essay writing course content planning should be in the Big Six skills teaching into the traditional writing teaching guidance. 2.The performance of students' learning effectiveness has obvious effect in improving the quality, but there is no significant difference in qualitative improvement. 3.The teaching of essay writing should be guided by cooperation of teachers. Finally, according to the research suggestions for high school teachers of essay writing and future research are proposed according to the research results.

本研究旨在瞭解新北市國民小學校長道德領導、教師組織公民行為與教師教學效能之現況，並分析不同背景變項之教師在知覺校長道德領導、教師組織公民行為與教師教學效能之差異情形，且探討三者之間的關係，最後藉由校長道德領導與教師組織公民行為對於教師教學效能進行預測。 本研究採調查研究法，共計抽樣25所學校，發出316份問卷，回收301份有效問卷，問卷有效率達93.67%。資料處理分別以描述性統計、獨立樣本t檢定、單因子變異數分析、皮爾遜積差相關及多元逐步迴歸分析等統計方式進行分析。 本研究獲致以下之結論： 一、新北市國民小學教師知覺校長道德領導為高程度，以「德行修為」之知覺程度為最高，「理性批判」之知覺程度最低。 二、新北市國民小學教師具備高程度的教師組織公民行為，各層面中以「利他人行為」之表現程度為最高，「利組織行為」之表現程度最低。 三、新北市國民小學教師在教師教學效能的表現屬於高程度，各層面得分以「教學情境」之表現程度為最高，「教學評量」之表現程度最低。 四、新北市國民小學教師，因其職務及學校規模之不同，而有不同的校長道德領導知覺感受。以擔任主任職務、與學校規模在60班（含）以下之教師知覺程度較高。 五、新北市國民小學教師，因其服務年資之不同，而知覺到不同程度的教師組織公民行為。以服務年資在5年以下之教師知覺程度較高。 六、新北市國民小學校長道德領導、教師組織公民行為與教師教學效能的知覺及各分層面，彼此之間具有正相關的關係。 七、新北市國民小學校長道德領導、教師組織公民行為對教師教學效能具有預測作用，以「教師組織公民行為」預測力最佳。 最後依據研究結果與結論，提出具體建議，以供教育行政主管機關、學校行政人員、教師及未來研究的參考。 / The aim of my research is to get to know the current status, to analysis the differences and corelationship under many background variables of elemtary principals’mortal leadership, teachers’organizational citizenship behavior and their teaching efficacy. And the paper will finally predict the affectness of elemtary principals’mortal leadership, teachers’organizational citizenship behavior towards the teachers’ teaching efficacy. Samples of my survey research includes 25 schools. 316 questionnaires were distributed and 301 Recycling effective questionnaire are collected back and the rate is 93.67%. All data were analyzed with the methods of descriptive statistics, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson correlation, Multiple regression etc. The conclusions were found in this research are listed as following: 1. Elementary school teachers’ perception of principals’moral leadership is above average among New Taipei City: “vitue cultivation” is the highest, while “retional critiques” is the lowest. 2. Elementary school teachers’ perception of teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior is above the average, “altruistic behavior” is the highest, and “Organizational behavior” is the lowest. 3. Elementary school teachers’ perception of teachers’teaching efficacy is above average while “life teaching situation” is the highest, and “teaching evaluation” is the lowest. 4. Significant differences show at the sense of principals’ moral leadership perception n the elementary school teachers’ perception of in terms of gender, job description, and the school size (whether the school has no more than 60 homerooms). 5. Significant differences exist in the elementary school teachers’ perception of teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior in terms of number of working year and 5 working years is the highest. 6. There are significant positive correlation in the elementary school pricipals’ moral leadership perception, teachers’organizational behavior and teachers’teaching efficacy. 7. Both of the principal’s moral leadership and teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior have a predictive effect on teachers’ teaching efficacy, and especially teachers’ organizational citizenship behavior is vital aspect between the two.

一帶一路倡議是中國最近的經濟發展策略，其目的是透過基礎設施發展和貿易，將中國與歐亞大陸的其他國家連結在一起。儘管並非單純為了能源所規劃的策略，但是倡議的組成部分對中國提供日增的能源需求扮演了一個角色。 本論文透過與1990 年代末中國走出去策略之比較，在中國能源需求的大架構下，檢驗一帶一路倡議。為評估一帶一路倡議對中國能源安全的影響，本論文首先界定中國對能源安全的見解，然後分析一帶一路計畫如何應對中國對能源安全的關切。 本論文發現一帶一路倡議可視為走出去策略的後續策略。此外，本論文也發現中國主要是透過供應的角度來觀察能源的安全，且一帶一路計畫（如，石油和天然氣管道的構築）確保了能源運輸的可靠性。 / The Belt and Road Initiative is China’s latest economic development strategy, which seeks to connect China to the rest of Eurasia through infrastructure development and trade. While not a dedicated energy strategy, components of the initiative will play a role in meeting China’s growing energy needs. This paper examines the Belt and Road Initiative in the greater context of China’s energy policy by comparing it to China’s “going-out” strategy of the late 1990s. It assesses the impact that Belt and Road projects will have on China’s energy security by first defining how China views its energy security and then analyzing how Belt and Road projects address China’s energy security concerns. This paper finds that the Belt and Road Initiative can be considered a successor to the“going-out” strategy. It also finds that China views energy security primarily through the lens of supply, and that Belt and Road projects such as port and pipeline construction contribute by ensuring reliability of transport.

本研究對1985/1至2016/10期間，37種貨幣的超額報酬與國家風險進行實證分析，以The PRS Group發佈的ICRG綜合風險評級做為國家風險的衡量指標。各國貨幣分別進行時間序列分析的結果顯示，單一國家的國家風險與該國貨幣的匯率走勢及超額報酬並不存在顯著的關聯。 投資組合分析的結果，對高國家風險貨幣與低國家風險貨幣分別執行利差交易，結果顯示兩者的超額報酬並沒有顯著差異。而動能策略在高國家風險貨幣則可以獲得顯著較高的超額報酬。 Fama-Macbeth二步驟迴歸分析結果顯示，高國家風險的投資組合確實擁有較高的因子負載量，然而國家風險因子的市場價格，也就是承受一單位 β_CRISK獲得的國家風險溢酬太低不顯著，因此國家風險無法幫助解釋貨幣報酬。 / We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and country risk, as measured by the ICRG comprehensive risk rating issued by The PRS Group, of 37 currencies during 1985/1 to 2016/10. The result of the single currency time series analysis shows that there is no significant correlation between the country risk and the exchange rate movement, also the currency excess return. As a result of the portfolio analysis, there is no significant difference in excess returns when we execute carry trade respectively on high country risk currencies and low country risk currencies. While the momentum strategy in the high country risk currencies can generate significantly higher excess return. The results of the Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that the high-risk portfolios do have a higher factor loading, whereas the country risk factor's market price, that is, the country risk premium received by a unit of β_CRISK, is too low. Therefore, country risk cannot help explain currency excess return.