2009年4月，墨西哥與美國西南地區出現人類感染A／H1N1新型流感病毒，此一新興傳染疾病在短時間內，擴散至全球各地。因媒體是社會大眾獲得健康風險訊息的主要來源之一，媒體呈現的H1N1新型流感樣貌，可能影響閱聽眾對此疾病的認知、態度，甚或行為。故本文研究目的有二，一為探討報紙媒體如何呈現H1N1新型流感新聞，分析新聞版面、性質、篇幅、主題、消息來源與圖表運用，二為檢視H1N1新型流感新聞內容是否聚焦風險不確定的面向，呈現公眾憤怨恐慌的要素，以及是否提供民眾評估風險的資訊。了解台灣報紙媒體如何呈現新流感相關議題，為國內媒體呈現傳染疾病的研究新增不同類型的個案。 本研究蒐集《中國時報》、《聯合報》、《自由時報》和《蘋果日報》，自2009年4月25日至2010年2月25日止，共1,324則H1N1新型流感新聞為樣本，採用內容分析法檢視四報H1N1新型流感新聞的特性與呈現的風險訊息。並依H1N1新型流感疫情發展分為五個階段，比較各階段報導呈現風險訊息之異同。 研究結果發現，主題分布依疫情階段而有顯著差異，雖「疫情現況」為各時期H1N1新型流感報導最常呈現的報導主軸，但各疫情階段報導的主題比例仍有不同，尤其疫情趨緩期的主題比重與其他時期差異較大。在主要消息來源方面，各疫情階段皆以「衛生單位官員」為最多，尤其至疫情趨緩期時，主要消息來源偏向更為明顯。 在報導呈現公眾憤怨恐慌的要素方面，以各時期呈現憤怨恐慌的要素總比例比較之，疫情升溫期呈現憤怨恐慌要素的比例為最多，至疫情高峰期與疫情趨緩期，呈現憤怨恐慌的要素之總比例則明顯減少。四報呈現憤怨恐慌的要素皆以「憤怨恐慌的修辭」為最多，高達近五成新聞出現「憤怨恐慌的修辭」要素。 在報導呈現風險解釋方面，以各疫情階段呈現風險解釋的總比例相比，疫情入台傳散期，報導呈現各項風險解釋的比例為最高，其次為疫情初始期，再次為疫情升溫期。四報呈現的風險解釋以「過程解釋」類訊息為最多，其次為「實用建議」類的訊息，而「定義解釋」、「風險程度」、「風險比較」類訊息則較少被提及。 報導圖表文字內容呈現方面，則發現除《蘋果日報》外，其他三報運用圖表的比重偏低，顯示H1N1新型流感報導運用圖表解釋風險仍不甚普遍。但包含圖表的報導，圖表文字多為「風險解釋」的訊息，常提及「過程解釋」與「實用建議」類資訊。研究也發現，新聞正文與圖表文字呈現相對應的風險解釋類型有顯著相關性，其中以新聞正文與圖表文字呈現「風險比較」的相關程度最高。 透過本研究分析發現，四報有部分報導凸顯風險不確定的面向，憤怨恐慌要素以「恐懼恐慌」、「疫情失控淪陷」、「衝突或矛盾」比例較多；在風險解釋呈現方面，則以「疫情數據資料更新」、「目前疫情傳佈範圍／地區」類的訊息為最多，「風險程度」、「定義」與「風險比較」等訊息則較少被提及。 假定報導提供風險解釋，可減少公眾因對風險的「不確定性」產生的憤怨恐慌，本研究發現提醒媒體實務工作者，記者在危機或風險事件發生，擔負風險溝通的責任之際，應提供閱聽眾評估風險的資訊，以清晰明確的文字或圖表解釋風險過程與民眾自我保護的等訊息，減輕民眾的憤怨不安或恐懼。 / In April 2009, Mexico and the Southwestern United States confirmed human cases of Influenza A/H1N1. In a short time, H1N1 influenza was spreading across the rest of the world. People obtain health risk messages mainly through mass media, so what the media cover about H1N1 influenza may do have influences on their audience’s cognition, attitudes, and even behaviors toward this disease. This study has two research purposes. First, it studies how the newspaper media cover H1N1 influenza by analyzing location of article, article type, news length, content about theme, news source, and usage of graphics. Second, it examines the coverage of H1N1 influenza to see if the media focus the facets of risk and uncertainty, present public outrage factors, and offer people the information to evaluate the risks. From this study, we can understand what related issues of H1N1 influenza were presented by four major newspapers in Taiwan, and to the study of coverage of domestic media on infectious diseases this adds a different case. It sampled 1324 H1N1 influenza news reports from Chinese Times, United Daily News, The Liberty Times, and Apple Daily, covered from April 25, 2009 to February 25, 2010. It adopted content analysis to examine these four newspapers about the characteristics of their H1N1 influenza coverage and their risk communication factors. And according to the development of H1N1 influenza in Taiwan, we divided the period into five phases, comparing the similarities and differences of news content among various phases. Results of content analysis showed that the distribution of news theme varies significantly among the phases, though “epidemiological description” is the main theme. There were differences in news theme proportion among the five phases, especially notable difference of the decreasing phase. And that main news source is health officials in all phases. Source bias was more obvious especially during the decreasing phase. In terms of the coverage of public outrage factors, the news content of the four newspapers showed that it has the most outrage factors during H1N1 influenza increasing phase. In the peak and the decline of H1N1influenza contagion, news content of outrage factors decreased significantly. The most presented outrage factors by the four newspapers is the “outrage rhetoric.” Nearly fifty percent of the coverage has “outrage rhetoric” factor. Regarding the coverage of risk explanations in news content, compared by phases, the spreading phase has the highest percentage of risk explanations of H1N1 influenza news, followed by the initial phase and then the epidemic increasing phase. Among the risk explanations presented by the four newspaper, the news group of “process explanations” was found the most, followed by the news categorized of “ practical recommendation,” whereas the news groups of “definitions”, ”risk level explanations” and ”risk comparisons” were seldom mentioned. On the news with graphics, except for Apply Daily, three other newspapers have low usage of graphics. It appears that for H1N1 influenza news it is not common yet to use graphics to explain risks. For those reports with graphs, they are commonly for “risk explanations” and they often mention of messages of “process explanations” and “practical recommendation.” In addition, this study finds that there is significant correlation between articles and graphs when they both present same risk explanations in the news content. To sum up, through this study we found some reports of the four newspapers highlight the risk uncertainty, among which outrage factors are presented with higher exposure of “fear/ panic”, “epidemic out of control”, and “conflicting reports.” On the coverage of 'risk explanations,” it has the most messages about “update the data of H1N1 influenza” and “current epidemic category and area,” whereas it has less messages about “definitions”,” risk level explanations” and ”risk comparisons”. This study used an exploratory framework that posits risk explanations can mitigate negative public reactions by communicating the hazard with clearer articles or graphics. Result of this study recommends when a crisis or risk event happens, media worker should take responsibility of risk communication, and provide accurate and clear risk information to the audience. Thus, it may alleviate the negative public reactions, like outrage, anger, worry, fear, and panic.

國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

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一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。 本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan. The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.

學習型遊戲可提供學習者一個具備「滿足學習發生的基本需求」、「以問題解決為基礎」、「有趣」以及「吸引人」等特色的安全學習環境，而技能型學習遊戲更不同於一般認知與情意型遊戲，其設計過程除了著重事實、知識之外，更強調經由實際操作或練習使學生能真正習得某些動作和技能。因此，有哪些遊戲設計要素能吸引學習者，讓學習者在進行技能學習過程中感到有趣，進而達到學習目標，值得我們關切。再者，從學習型遊戲設計層面來看，重視學習情緒和使用者經驗是不可或缺的遊戲設計考量面向，特別是在數位學習環境中，哪些遊戲設計要素會對學生的學習情緒及學習成效產生影響，值得更進一步的探討。 因此，本研究採用兩款具遊戲設計要素差異之英文打字遊戲，探討技能型學習遊戲之遊戲設計要素對於學習者之學習情緒與學習成效之影響與關聯，以釐清技能型學習遊戲之遊戲設計要素如何影響學習者之正負面情緒以及學習成效，進而作為學習型技能遊戲設計時的參考。研究結果顯示，具遊戲設計要素差異之技能型英打學習遊戲對於引發女性學習者之負面情緒會產生顯著差異，而男性學習者則未產生顯著差異；本研究採用之兩款技能型英打學習遊戲，均可以有效增進學習者之學習成效，並且遊戲設計要素較高之技能型英打學習遊戲對於男性學習者較具學習成效；具遊戲設計要素差異之技能型英打學習遊戲，其遊戲設計要素之「適時回饋」為設計學習型遊戲時之最重要因素；而學習情緒會影響學習成效部分，僅在低打字能力學習者採用具遊戲設計要素差異之技能型英打學習遊戲時獲得部份驗證。 / Game-based learning can provide a safe environment with satisfied basic needs during learning process, problem solving domain foundation, funny and attractive characteristics for learners. Skill learning games are different from normal cognitive and affective games. The design of skill learning games emphasizes on not only facts and knowledge but also on learning some kinds of motion and skills by operation and practice, so we concerned about the key design features attracting learners to interest the learning process and get the learning goals. On the other hand, it is indispensable for key design features considering about learning emotions and learner’s experience, and it is also necessary to be further investigated about which feature will affect the learner’s emotion and learning performance. Two English typing games with different design features were adapted to investigate the effects and relations between design features and learner’s emotion and learning performance to clarify the positive or negative emotions and performance were affected by which design feature of the skill learning games and to set a reference for the game designer. The study results show that female learner’s negative emotion which was caused by different game design features of the English typing games was significantly affected, but male learner’s emotion was not. The two adapted games were both with learning performance, and her male learning performance was better with better game design features of the typing games. Proper feedback was the most important design feature. The effects of emotions to performance were partly proven from poor typing ability learners.

This study examines the effects of market concentration on firm-level productivity using data on Chinese above-scale industrial firms from 2001 to 2007. Productivity is identified as total factor productivity (TFP) and estimated using the Olley-Pakes three-step estimation in order to avoid simultaneity and selection biases. Using data on around 590,000 industrial firms, empirical results indicate that the less concentrated the market, the higher the productivity generally. However, a few industries are identified to have opposite direction; that is, the more concentrated, the more productive are the firms. In some industries, there is no significant relationship between market concentration and firm productivity.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23204号 / 工博第4848号 / 新制||工||1757(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科電気工学専攻 / (主査)教授 雨宮 尚之, 教授 松尾 哲司, 特定教授 中村 武恒 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18957号 / 工博第3999号 / 新制||工||1616(附属図書館) / 31908 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 木村 亮, 教授 三村 衛, 准教授 岸田 潔 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第19127号 / 情博第573号 / 新制||情||100(附属図書館) / 32078 / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科システム科学専攻 / (主査)教授 中島 浩, 教授 中村 佳正, 教授 石井 信 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM