本研究採用2013年度台灣社會變遷基本調查計畫數據進行分析，旨在探討在不同災害經驗下，心理資源變化、災害風險知覺與身心狀態的關係，並探討資源獲得是否能作為災後的保護因子，從而降低災害經驗對身心狀態的影響。研究結果發現：（1）資源的流失能部分中介災害經驗（財產損失、心理創傷）下的身心狀態，結果支持Hobfoll的資源保留理論；（2）資源的獲得能降低災害經驗（財產損失）下的無法控制感；（3）對於身心狀態，地震經歷頻率與資源獲得的交互作用能調節身心狀態，即不論經歷頻率多寡，資源的獲得愈多，身心狀態便愈好。控制災害經驗與心理資源獲得的情況下，個體覺得地震發生可能性愈高，身心狀態就愈差。上述結果僅出現在地震災害樣本中，淹水災害則無上述發現。詳細討論見內文。 / The aim of the study is to examine the relationships between change in psychological resources, risk perception and psychological adjustment under different disaster experiences. Using the data from Taiwan Social Change Survey 2013 to test the hypnosis: whether psychological resources gain can directly influenced one’s psychological adjustment, or the resources gain can indirectly reduce the impact of disaster by altering the risk perception. Results showed that: 1) Resources loss can partially mediate the effect between the disaster experiences and psychological adjustment. 2) Resources gain can moderate the effect between disaster loss experiences to risk perception, victims who gain more resources, their controllability of future disaster is higher. 3) Resources gain can moderate the effect between frequency of experiencing disaster and psychological adjustment. After controlling the disaster experience and resources gain, the likelihood of Earthquake recurrence that one believes, can predict his/her psychological adjustment. The above results only found in case of the earthquake disaster, but not in flooding.

本論文共分七章十六節，全篇計十二萬餘言。第一章「緒論」申明本論文研究的對象、目的及方法。第二章「朝鮮時代蒙古學的演變」分為三節；第一節略述朝鮮時代譯學的發展過程；第二節敘述朝鮮時代蒙古學的設立與變遷過程；第三節探討朝鮮時代有關蒙古學的書籍概況。第三章「《蒙語老乞大》的相關問題」分為三節；第一節探察《蒙語老乞大》的版本及刊行年代；第二節探討《蒙語老乞大》的書名來源、諸學者對該書的看法，並提出筆者的看法；第三節略述關於該書的研究概況。第四章「《蒙語老乞大》中蒙古語的詞法考察」分為三節；第一節略述本章探討的範圍及詞法概念；第二節比較分析名詞的變格；第三節比較分析動詞的詞形變化。第五章「《蒙語老乞大》中蒙古語的句法考察」分為四節；第一節略述本章探討的範圍及句法概念；第二節探討《蒙語老乞大》中出現的句子成分；第三節討論不同句子類型中的疑問句；第四節歸納《蒙語老乞大》中出現的句子結構。第六章「《蒙語老乞大》中蒙古語的語音考察」分為三節；第一節略述蒙古語的語音變遷過程及特色；第二節探討《蒙語老乞大》中出現的母音特徵；第三節探討該書中出現的子音特徵。第七章「結論」總結本論文的研究成果，並加以評述。

Anand M. Goel and Anjan V Thakor 於最近的財務學刊中提出理性且風險趨避的經理人會放棄部分正報酬但風險高的投資，造成投資不足問題，使得公司價值未能極大化。然而，極端過度自信的經理人投資正負報酬皆有的計畫，造成過度投資，使得公司價值遞減。只有中度自信的經理人能為公司價值帶來極大化效果。本篇研究採用台灣上市櫃公司近二十年資料，以公司經理人對公司持股的變化來衡量其過度自信的程度，探討公司經理人自信程度對公司獲利能力與公司價值的影響。實證研究發現，極端過度自信的經理人與極端保守的經理人使公司的績效與成長性減少，降低公司價值。此研究增加我們了解經理人自有特徵對公司價值的影響，並為公司理財課題帶來新的貢獻。 / Former literature theorized that excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs reduce the firm value for underinvestment and overinvestment problems and moderate overconfident CEOs willing to take risky but positive NPV projects increase the firm value. This paper conducts an empirical research by using the change of purchase and sale on own company stocks took by CEOs to measure CEO overconfidence level in Taiwanese listing companies and find that the profitability and stock performance of firms led by excessively overconfident CEOs and excessively diffident CEOs decrease compared to by moderate overconfident CEOs. The result contributes to the understanding of the impact on firm valuation by CEO idiosyncratic characteristics and offers new evidence to behavior finance on corporate management.

2011年末，一場持續數天的霧霾天氣席捲北京，環保部門卻並未提供相關污染物PM2.5的監測數據。相關法律法規的落後，以及環保部門的不作為，激起民眾的不滿。隨著美國駐華大使館、環保NGO、微博名人和廣大民眾的持續參與與推動，政府相關資訊政策也逐漸變化，最終將PM2.5納入空氣質量標準并公佈監測數據。本文以此次霧霾污染事件作為「焦點事件」切入點，首先藉由事件回顧討論“誰來監測”的問題，探討了環境信息公開的理論與實踐；然後分析政策變化的過程，歸納「政策變化模型」，討論政策變化形成的原因，分析各行為者在政策變化中的角色和作用；最後，由此事件得出這一政策轉變的影響以及啟示，歸納目前環境資訊公開領域制度層面所存在的缺失，并就此事件的經驗對於政府和環境NGO給出建議。 / In the end of 2011, the city of Beijing was hit by a long-lasting haze. However, the city’s Environmental Protection Bureau was unable to provide the public with the data of a critical pollutant – PM2.5. The political inaction of the government has caused great discontent among the public. With the continuous efforts from the US Embassy in China, environmental NGOs, Sina Weibo celebrity users and the public, the official information disclosure policy has seen a big change – the government has adopted a higher standard and taken steps to publish the data of PM2.5. This article takes the haze incident as a “focusing event”. It firstly reviews the case and discusses the theories and practices of the environmental information disclosure. It then analyzes the process of this policy change and forms a policy change model to determine the contributing factors and the roles of different actors. The concluding part summarizes the omission of the current information disclosure system, and makes recommendations to the government and the NGOs.

一般而言財務資料具有高峰(High Kurtosis)及厚尾(Heavy Tail)的特性，極值理論(Extreme Value Theorem)即是著重於尾部極端事件發生的機率，描繒出尾部極端值的機率分配，以捕捉財務資料中具厚尾的現象，利用估算尾部指數(Tail Index) α值判斷尾部分配的厚、薄程度。一般在估算α值時均是假設α值是不會隨著時間而變動的穩定值，然而在我們所選取的樣本期間內，可能伴隨著一些重大事件，如金融風暴、或是制度面的改變等，均有可能造成尾部極端值發生機率的增加或減少，因此在其樣本期間所估算的α值不應假設為一不變的常數。本文即是針對亞洲四小龍的匯率資料做”尾部參數是否發生結構變化(Structural Change)”之假設檢定，並且找出發生結構變化的時點。 實証結果發現，在1993~2004年間，亞洲四小龍的匯率報酬率其尾部參數確實有發生結構變化的情形。此結論對於風險管理者而言，必須注意到尾部參數α值應該是一個會隨著時間而改變的值，也就是在估算 值時應該要避開發生結構變化的可能時點，或許應於所要估計的樣本期間先執行尾部參數是否有結構變化的檢定，如此才能更準確的估算α值。

本研究以日文的語彙複合動詞為研究對象，探討自自交替發生時的條件及制約，以及在整個複合動詞中所佔的位置。 本論文共分為七章。第一章為緒論，闡述本研究的目的及考察對象。第二章則針對語彙複合動詞的自他交替及自自交替之過往相關文獻進行研究，並提出尚未解決的問題。第三章到第六章則依照字組下去分別做探討。字組依序為「出る／出す」「通る／通す」「回る／回す」「抜く／抜ける」為後項的複合動詞。第三～六章主要在探討前項動詞與後項動詞的特徵，以及自自交替形成的原因。最後第七章為結論。 透過本研究，我們可以得到以下結論。 （1）形成自自交替的前後項動詞皆為位置變化動詞。 （2）自自交替發生的原因依據前項動詞的性質而有所不同。例如前項動詞為非能格 自動詞時，自自交替的原因主要為再歸導致的他動性低下；前項動詞為非對格 自動詞時，自自交替的原因為「非対格性優先の原則」；前項為他動詞時，自 自交替的原因則來自於文全體的他動性低下。 關鍵字：語彙複合動詞、自自交替、自他交替、他動性、非對格優先原則、 位置變化 　本研究の目的は、語彙的複合動詞における自自交替の発生条件、制約及び位置づけを明らかにすることである。 　本研究は7章で構成される。第一章は序論で、本研究の目的及び研究対象を述べる。第二章ではまず自他交替と自自交替に関する先行研究を検討し、さらに本研究の位置づけについて述べ、問題点を提出する。第三章から第六章においては、「出る／出す」「通る／通す」「回る／回す」「抜く／抜ける」の組み合わせに分け、それぞれ考察を行い、「前項動詞と後項動詞の特徴」と「自自交替が可能になる理由」について分析する。第七章は結論である。 　本研究を通して次のような結論が得られる。 　（1）自自交替における前項動詞と後項動詞は、両方とも位置変化を表していること が判明した。 　（2）自自交替が可能になる理由は、前項動詞の性質によって異なる。前項動詞が 非能格自動詞である場合は、主に再帰による他動性低下の影響を受け、自自 交替が可能になる。前項動詞が非対格自動詞の場合は、「非対格性優先の 原則」の制約で自自交替を成す。前項動詞が他動詞である場合は、文全体 の他動性低下という原因で自自交替が可能になるのである。 　キーワード：語彙的複合動詞、自自交替、自他交替、他動性、非対格性優先の原 則、位置変化

本篇研究旨在探討心理反芻思考對個體情緒變化的影響，在類同於Nolen-Hoeksema的前瞻式連續測量架構下劃分不同情緒困擾的時段（整體分析、嚴重又長期情緒不佳的日子、負向情緒發作期），並以Fritz之多向度反芻觀點：功用性反芻、情緒焦點反芻以及意義尋找反芻為切入點，試圖釐清反芻在情緒復原中所扮演的角色利弊。本研究以一般非創傷性的負向事件為研究背景，選取156名大學生在連續十二天的研究設計中，每天測量三類反芻出現的頻率、情緒強度和情緒維持的時間。研究結果顯示，不同內容焦點的反芻思考對事件挫敗後之情緒變化有其獨特的影響效果。整體平均來說，功用性反芻有助於負向情緒的緩解、情緒焦點反芻會增強負向情緒感受、意義尋找反芻則是增加負向情緒維持的時間；若當天處在長期又嚴重情緒不佳日子中時，功用性反芻似有維持正向情緒的效用、情緒焦點反芻則是惡化當天的負向情緒強度、意義尋找反芻則有延長當天負向情緒時間的趨勢；若連續處在長期且嚴重情緒不佳的日子中，功用性反芻對情緒變化並無影響、情緒焦點反芻則是延長且惡化此時期的負向情緒狀態、而意義尋找反芻不但會影響負向情緒的狀態，似也會有助於此時期的正向情緒狀態。因此，本研究結果不僅支持內容區分的必要性；也代表著在情緒復原過程中，配合考量到個體所處的情緒困擾時段時，不同內容焦點的反芻思考對情緒變化的影響是有利弊之分的。 / The purpose of this research is to examine the relation between ruminative thought and mood fluctuation. Similar to the Nolen-Hoeksema’s progressive paradigm, we divided the experimental period into three parts, including average days, severely and long-term negative mood days, and negative mood episode. Combined with the Fritz’s viewpoint of multidimensional rumination ─ instrumental rumination, emotional-focused rumination, and meaning-searching rumination, this research attempted to clarify the role of rumination in the process of emotional recovery. According to the negative but non-traumatic events, we selected 156 college students and daily measured the frequency of three types of rumination, mood intensity, and mood duration during the continuous 12 days. The results of this research showed that different content-focused rumination had unique effect on mood fluctuation after suffering a failure. Generally, instrumental rumination helped to reduce negative mood, emotional-focused rumination worsened negative mood, and meaning-searching rumination increased the duration of negative mood. Moreover, in the period of severely and long-term negative mood status, instrumental rumination seemed to maintain the duration of positive mood, emotional-focused rumination still worsened negative mood, and meaning-searching rumination seemed to prolong the duration of negative mood. Besides, in the period of negative mood episode, instrumental ruminative had no effect on mood fluctuation, emotional-focused rumination deteriorated and extended negative mood, and meaning-searching rumination had harmful effect on the negative mood but still had borderline effect on the positive mood. Consequently, the results of this research not only illustrated the necessary of content-discrimination in the rumination, but also showed that different content-focused rumination had separate effect on the mood fluctuation in the process of emotional recovery, when the three different periods of emotional disturbance were considered.

摘要 在資訊科技服務的市場，資訊科技委外（ITO）在市場佔有顯著的地位。過去有許多的報告研究資訊委外廠商的選擇，以及有效的合約管理方法，鮮少針對企業資訊委外合約簽訂之後，企業與委外伙伴之間的互動進行研究。然而依據許多個案報導案例顯示，大多數委外案例的失敗，不是由於雙方關係管理的不適當，就是無法滿足委外企業最初委外目標的期盼。 我們使用在過去的二十六年中臺灣資訊科技委外市場的四十個案例來研究探討如何利用資訊委外關係管理來獲取預期綜效。經過分析與研究，發現四種資訊科技委外的合作關係。這四種合作關係型態分別為：夥伴關係（Partner）、倚賴關係（Dependent）、隨需存取關係（Utility）、以及附屬關係（Subordinate）。不同的委外關係含概了不同的委外服務內容，也含概了不同的關係管理。夥伴的合作關係，企業的期望不止雙方合作達成企業的策略目標，同時也期望委外廠商支援科技創新而提升企業的市場競爭力；倚賴的合作關係，企業對委外廠商支援達成企業策略目標高度倚靠；隨需存取的合作關係，企業期望資源的取得是隨需存取，完全以成本考量；附屬的合作關係，企業則認為該委外廠商僅僅是依附於資訊中心的下包廠商，委外與否完全由企業的資訊中心自行決定。此外，本研究顯示不同的委外關係是由於不同的委外關係無法達成期盼，以及無法交付最終策略利益、經濟利益、或資訊科技利益而終止。 本論文透過文獻探討與深度個案研究，來瞭解影響不同合作關係資訊科技委外的相關因素，和期盼的資訊科技委外的結果。不同型態資訊科技委外關係的管理需要瞭解委外企業對所需服務的期望，以及在合作期間，彼此關係的管理需不斷的注意市場以及資訊科技的變化而提出相對應的策略來因應彼此合作關係，以期從中獲取最大效益。 關鍵字：資訊科技委外，委外關係，市場變化，資訊中心支援能力，委外期望。 / Information Technology Outsourcing (ITO) has gained a big share of the world IT service market. There are many studies about ITO vendor selection and contract management but a lack of understanding of the after-contract practice between the ITO parties. According to reported cases many outsourcing failures were due to either improper relationship management or unable to meet customer expectations. For effective management of this long-term inter-organizational relationship there is a need for understanding the features, affecting factors, expectations and termination of ITO relationship so that the desired outcomes can be achieved and relationship can be sustained throughout the life of the ITO. The above propositions were tested on all existing and changed ITO projects in Taiwan in the past twenty five years. A total of fourty cases were examined and the results show four kinds of IT outsourcing relationship: dependent, utility, partner and subordinate. Different kinds of ITO relationship have different expectations for the ITO services and require different management on the relationships. The dependent type ITO customers rely highly on ITO vendors for supporting strategic moves. The utility ITO customers use ITO as a utility and measure vendors by cost performance. The partner type ITO customers consult vendor for business strategic moves and urge vendor for technology innovation. The subordinate type ITO customers consider ITO vendors as a sub-contractor of IT department and leave decisions to the IT department. Those terminated cases were mainly due to conflicts in the expected and delivered outcome in the three ITO benefit areas. This study provides useful instrument for assessing major ITO factors and understanding expected ITO outcomes. ITO relationship management requires a careful understanding of the expected benefits of the service and continuous monitoring of the business and IT environment. Keywords : Information Technology Outsourcing；Outsourcing Relationship；Business Dynamics；IT Competence；Outsourcing Expectation。

Information technology outsourcing (ITO) has gained a big share of the world IT service market. There are many studies about ITO vendor selection and contract management but a lack of understanding of the after-contract practices between the ITO parties. According to reported cases, many outsourcing failures have been due to either improper relationship management or the inability to meet customer expectations. For effective management of this long-term, inter-organizational relationship, there is a need to understand the features, affecting factors, expectations, and termination of ITO relationships so that the desired outcomes can be achieved and relationships can be sustained throughout the life of the ITO. Based on a dynamic view of outsourcing partnerships, the ITO relationship can be assessed by customer participation, joint action, communication quality, coordination, and information sharing. Prior studies have indicated that these ITO relationship features are mainly affected by business dynamics and the client’s IT competence. Organizations expect from the ITO mainly strategic, economic, and technological benefits. When conflicts exist between expected benefits and delivered outcomes, the relationship is more likely to be terminated. The above propositions were tested on all existing and changed ITO projects in Taiwan in the past twenty-six years. A total of forty cases were examined and the results show four kinds of IT outsourcing relationships: dependent, utility, partner, and subordinate. Different kinds of ITO relationships involve different expectations for the ITO services and require different types of management of the relationships. In the dependent type ITO, customers rely highly on ITO vendors for supporting strategic moves. Utility ITO customers use the ITO as a utility and measure vendors by cost performance. In the partner type ITO, customers consult the vendor for strategic business moves and urge the vendor to engage in technology innovation. The subordinate type ITO is characterized by customers who consider the ITO vendor as a sub-contractor of their IT department and leave decisions to the IT department. Terminations of relationships were mainly due to conflicts in the expected and delivered outcomes in the three ITO benefit areas. This study provides a useful instrument for assessing major ITO factors and understanding expected ITO outcomes. ITO relationship management requires a careful understanding of the expected benefits of the service and continuous monitoring of the business and IT environments.

自民國69年政府開放國人出國觀光之後，由於國民所得的提高、台幣的升 值及其它種種社經有利因素的影響，使得每年出國觀光人數穩定的成長， 而在民國76年開放國人赴大陸探親之後，出國觀光人數更呈直線上升，這 對於提高國家知名度以及展示國家整體經濟實力有極為明顯的助益。出國 觀光旅客人數的多寡直接或間接影響本地觀光業者及政府相關單位對觀光 業軟、硬體設施的投資以及整體策略的規劃，舉凡國際航線的開拓、航空 公司航線的增減、導遊人員的培訓以及政府駐外單位的配合措施，在在都 有賴於對未來需求的精確預測，過於粗略或不當的預測，不僅將造成大量 觀光資源的閒置與浪費，也將使得政府與觀光業者在這場日趨激烈的觀光 事業競爭中處於極不利的地位。本研究搜集並參考近十年來國內外學者在 觀光旅遊預測模式方面的研究，針對出國觀光旅客整體及各主要市場需求 ，尋找並建立適當之長短期預測模式。我們考慮下列六種模式：簡算法、 單變量時間序列模式、轉移函數模式、時間趨勢模式、指數平滑法以及計 量經濟模式，同時利用各類模式選取準則如AIC、SBC等來選取最佳模式， 或以平均絕對百分誤差(MA PE)、根均方百分誤差(RMSPE)、方向變化誤 差(Direction of Change Erro r)以及趨勢變化誤差(Trend Change Error)來評估各模式預測能力，從中選出最佳模式並進行預測整合分析。