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本論文由性別的角度切入討論渥騰貝克的歷史劇與口傳歷史劇，強調歷史與性別兩者都應該重新被檢視，以挑戰傳統的封閉線性的歷史觀與刻板印象的男女特質，如此才能對歷史與性別有重新的認識。本論文論證渥騰貝克在戲劇創作上的特點即是指出歷史中兩性的動態權力關係。此研究包含五個章節，第一章介紹論文架構、渥騰貝克的多文化的成長背景、與她的戲劇特色。第二章是本論文的理論基礎，認為唯有將歷史視為敘述的形式，才能開啟重新撰寫歷史的可能，而從性別寫歷史也才可行，進而達到對歷史與性別的同時批判。第三章討論四部歷史劇，《解剖新義》(1981)、《瑪麗．崔維斯的美德》(1985)、《為了國家的利益》(1988)、《達爾文之後》(1998)，並論證歷史不再是建立在男性的高壓統治與女性的絕對服從之上，再者，將性別視為社會建構的產物才能夠打破傳統對兩性限制的男子氣概與女性特質的刻板印象。第四章研究三部歷史劇，《夜鶯之愛》(1988)、《黛安妮拉》(1999)、與《灰姑娘》(2000)，因為都是採用口傳歷史的緣故，本論文命為口傳歷史劇以區別第三章的四部劇作。從性別角度閱讀以男性為中心的口傳歷史如神話與童話，渥騰貝克批判了傳統的性別關係，企圖與傳統男性沙文的口傳歷史做切割，並從中賦予過去與當代女性自我意識，期許未來有一個平等的兩性關係。論文最後一章強調渥騰貝克由性別重建歷史是成功的，尤其是重建歷史的動作本身就是重要並且是刻不容緩的工作。 / As traditional immobilized history and gender are confining, Timberlake Wertenbaker in her (oral) history plays argues that both history and gender should be reread radically to challenge closed linearity of history and stereotypical images of femininity and masculinity so as to reconstruct new visions of history and gender. This book aims at discussing mainly seven of her plays from the perspective of gender, especially how the playwright rewrites gender into history, and it proposes that Wertenbaker's contribution to drama is to expose the unstable power relations between the sexes in history. Chapter One introduces the structure of the book, Wertenbaker's cosmopolitan background, and the characteristics of her plays overall. Chapter two is the theoretical foundation, and it claims that just as Hayden White sees narrative nature of history and just as Joan Scott finds social formation in gender, Wertenbaker also believes that both history and gender are constructed and should be reread to offer new visions. Analyzing four history plays, New Anatomies (1981), The Grace of Mary Traverse (1985), Our Country's Good (1988), and After Darwin (1998), Chapter Three asserts that by rewriting gender into history, Wertenbaker asserts that history is no longer based on the model of men's coercive domination over women and only the acknowledgment of gender as a social construction can destroy the stereotypes of masculinity and femininity. Chapter Four, focusing on three oral history plays, The Love of the Nightingale (1988), Dianeira (1999), and The Ash Girl (2000), claims that by rereading against male-centered oral history of myth and fairy tales from a gender-oriented perspective, Wertenbaker criticizes the traditional gender relation and proposes a break from male chauvinism in oral history and to have self-awareness for women in the past and the present so as to have a new mode of gender relations in the future. The final chapter affirms that Wertenbaker's history rewriting from gender is successful and the act of reconstruction of history itself is important and necessary.

本研究探討通貨膨脹風險下長期投資人之最適資產配置。由於長年期通貨膨脹之估計誤差於投資決策上容易產生顯著差異，我們延伸 Brennan and Xia (2002)的模型，嘗試以消費者物價指數預估及修正通貨膨脹率，利用貝氏過濾方法預估未來通貨膨脹率。以平賭過程描述基金的限制條件，最適化投資人之效用值求得加入可預測性效果後之最適多期資產組合模型。研究結果顯示，長期投資人之最適策略可表示為固定比例股票指數基金及不同存續期間固定收益基金之組合。以不同存續期間之固定收益債券可以有效建構規避通貨膨脹風險之避險組合。本研究並提供數值計算與分析。 / This paper examines the optimal portfolio selection for a long-term investor. In order to consider the uncertainty of inflation rate, we extend the work in Brennan and Xia (2002) and use the consumer price index (CPI) to estimate and update the inflation rate through the filtering mechanism. The stochastic real interest rate is assumed to follow the Vasicek-type model. The investor’s optimal portfolio selection is solved through the Martingale method. The result is given in a simple closed form solution. We show that the optimal strategy for the fund manager in hedging the inflation uncertainty is to incorporate a dynamic fixed income portfolio with different durations. Numerical illustration is provided to clarify our findings.

本論文主要是介紹並評估一個R的軟體套件叫做"rBeta2009"。此套件是由Cheng et al. (2012) [8] 所設計，其目的是用來產生貝他分配(Beta Distribution)及狄氏分配(Dirichlet Distribution)的亂數。本論文特別針對此套件之(i)有效性(effiniency)、(ii)精確性(accuracy)及(iii)隨機性(randomness)進行評估，並與現有的R套件作比較。此外，本論文也介紹如何應用此套件來產生(i)反貝他分配(Inverted Beta Distribution)、(ii)反狄氏分配(Inverted Dirichlet Distribution)、(iii)Liouville分配及(iv)凸面區域上的均勻分配之亂數。 / A package in R called "rBeta2009", originally designed by Cheng et al. (2012) [6], was introduced and evaluated in this thesis. The purpose of the package is generating beta random numbers and Dirichlet random vectors. In this paper, we not only evaluated (i) the efficiency, (ii) the accuracy and (iii) the randomness, but also compare it with other R packages currently in use. In addition, it was also scrutinized in this thesis how to generate (i) inverted beta random numbers, (ii) inverted Dirichlet random vectors, (iii) Liouville random vectors, and (iv) uniform random vectors over convex polyhedron by using the same package.

本文係以審計抽樣α及β風險為研究範圍，旨在探討我國會計師事務所審計人員對α 及β風險之認知程度。α與β風險係一種相對性的觀念，前者涉及審計效率（Effic- iency ），後者則涉及審計效果（Effectiveness ），兩者在認知上之差距均足以影 響審計人員之專業判斷，從而損及其形象、聲譽。 在本文中，首先探討有關審計風險之定義，並探究其形成原因；其次則將審計風險依 抽樣方法與審計程序之不同加以分類，並提出其數量模型，俾使審計人員對整體審計 風險之控制有深刻的瞭解。再者則提出「古典模式」「貝氏決策理論模式」及「貨幣 單位抽樣模式」等有關α及β的控制模型詳加縷述。 本文實證研究係以國內會計師事務所審計人員（分三大與非三大）及審計學術界人員 為受試對象，問卷分三組採不具名方式寄發，回函問卷經整理後採卡方檢定及單因子 變異數加以分析。其研究目的旨在瞭解上述人員對α及β風險之認知程度；以便對國 內審計實務界之專業訓練及學術界之審計教育提出發展改進的方向，並指引出可行的 途徑。

本文從貝氏統計理論以及時間數列分析法探討動態線性理性預期模型。並用之以國內 的消費、所得以及其他經濟變動數的理性預期因素。 第一章：緒言：研究動機、研究目的、研究方法及資料來源。 第二章：理性預期之假設的含意及其應用。 第三章：數種理性預期模型之建立。 第四章：理性預期模型的統計特性：認定、估定及假設檢定。 第五章：理性預期與移動平均的預測比較。 第六章：理性預期之實證研究─台灣之經濟模型。 第七章：結論與建議。

本文之研究旨在應用貝氏方法，并配合經濟計量模型體系，以探討為使達成預定目標 ，而期望損失為最小情形下之控制變數最適控制值的決定。全文共分為五章，玆分別 扼要說明如下： 第一章緒論計分三節分別就從事本研究的研究動機與目的、研究方法、及研究範圍與 限制作一敘述。 第二章貝氏推論之研討計分五節。為探討貝氏方法在統計推論上之應用，本章將依序 就其立論根據，事前、事後情報來源，推定及其應用作一詳細的介紹。 第三章共分為五節就應用貝氏方法求解最適控制值的理論部份逐次加以探討。於第四 章中將就依此方法，嘗以臺灣實際的個案作一實例應用，以求解強力貨幣在70年第二 季至71年第三季等六季之最適控制值。并就所得結果作一檢討，而作成第五章之結論 。

本文旨在以貝氏分析法來探討誤差項具有自我相關的迴歸模型。全文一冊約三萬兩仟 字，共分為六章，十二節。內容如下： 第一章 緒論：說明迴歸模型，自我相關誤差的意義，及貝氏分析法之理論體系。 第二章 誤差項具有一階自我相關的簡單迴歸模型：分析以傳統抽樣理論法及貝氏分 析法對模型作分析並比較其結果。 第三章 多元迴歸模型：以貝氏法分析自我相關誤差之多元迴歸模型。 第四章 事前分配及其他假設的考慮。 第五章 我國民間消費與個人可支用所得迴歸模型的分析。 第六章 結論。

Export oriented institutional changes are increasingly being recognized as important factor in the economic development of countries. These changes have led to an increase in the global movement of Multi-national companies. Besides bringing capital to their host countries, these Multi-national companies facilitate the transfer of technology, organizational and managerial practices and skills as well as access to international markets. Economic diversification is also another result of the surge of export oriented institutional changes. The loss of the traditional preferential markets and decline in the global prices for exports in agricultural sector as a result of globalization threatens the once dominant agricultural sector of developing countries. More and more countries are striving to create a favourable and enabling climate to attract investment as a policy priority utilizing export oriented institutional changes. Liberalisation and deregulation are taking place in almost every corner of the world with the aim of allocating resources more efficiently in an environment which is favourable for free flow of resources seeking higher efficiencies. Technological progress further accelerates the rate of globalisation by making better means of production and transaction available. Today's dynamic environment imposes a very challenging task for policy makers in charge of policy formulation on trade and investment affairs. These policy makers need to quickly evaluate the current situation, new opportunities and threats, and re-direct the course of the future. It requires gathering of accurate and the most up-to-date information and constant reassessment of policies based on that information. While the efficacy of incentives as a determinant for economic development is often questioned, countries have increasingly resorted to such measures in recent years. In particular they have been offering tax incentives to influence the location decisions of investors. The theme is very appropriate for Belize at present. The country has undergone structural changes. It is essential to re-evaluate the efforts undertaken by Belize to learn from and build on these initiatives. Belize’s export oriented institutional changes include The Commercial Free Zone Act of 1994 (Revised Edition 2000), The Mines and Minerals Act of 1994 (Revised Edition 2000), The Export Processing Act of 1991 (Revised Edition 2004), The Fiscal Incentives Act of 1996 (Revised Edition 2000) This paper utilized quantitative and qualitative methodologies to carry out a descriptive analysis of Export Processing Zones. The analysis draws lessons from the accumulated experience in several regions and countries. The relationship between Belize’s export oriented institutional changes, particularly the Export Processing Zone program, and the Belizean economy has been determined to be closely linked. The program has developed since 1990 from being identified with the old labour intensive garment zones of the past to the new dynamic emerging zones active in Data-Processing, Agro-Processing and Manufacturing. Also the program keeps evolving by accordingly updating the regulations and the administration of the program. In terms of employment, while the program does not employ a high percentage of Belizean employees, only two point eight (2.8) percent annually from 1998 to 2003; it has been providing a constant level of employment. This employment forms a foundation upon which other sectors of the export oriented institutional changes may build upon. Also EPZ are characterized by high female employment, which in Belize makes up approximately one third of the employed labour force. Therefore the program may be providing significant employment in terms of the female employment sector. EPZ exports have accounted for a significant amount of Belize’s total annual export since 1998, approximately thirty two (32) percent. Comparatively the program has also accounted for ten (10) percent of Belize’s annual gross import. While the human resource development of the companies in the program are mostly task specific and geared toward enhancing productivity and efficiencies within the companies, the employees are exposed to new technology, entrepreneurial and organizational skills that are diffused into the economy. The EPZ program, as an integral part of the overall export oriented institutional changes in Belize, is creating a favourable environment for investment and economic development The sub regional, regional, and multilateral integration which has accompanied globalization challenges EPZ to readjusts its operations to adhere to the new world order. Several countries have had success in adjusting their EPZ programs to the global integration and other countries are currently in the planning and preparation stages. Therefore it is evident that the challenge can be met and overcome and the end result proposes to be on global market and economy where the ultimate aim of the welfare of all may be attained. It is essential that on a global level, EPZ policies and other export oriented institutional changes are upgraded to reflect the new paradigm shift.

股價的漲跌變化是由於證券市場中眾多不同投資人及其投資決策後所產生的結果。然而，影響股價變動的因素眾多且複雜，新聞也屬於其中一種，新聞事件不但是投資人用來得知該股票上市公司的相關營運資訊的主要媒介，同時也是影響投資人決定或變更其股票投資策略的主要因素之一。本研究提出以新聞文件做為股價漲跌預測系統的基礎架構，透過文字探勘技術及分類技術來建置出能預測當日個股收盤股價漲跌趨勢之系統。 本研究共提出三種分類模型，分別是簡易貝氏模型、k最近鄰居模型以及混合模型，並設計了三組實驗，分別是分類器效能的比較、新聞樣本資料深度的比較、以及新聞樣本資料廣度的比較來檢驗系統的預測效能。實驗結果顯示，本研究所提出的分類模型可以有效改善相關研究中整體正確率高但各個類別的預測效能卻差異甚大的情況。而對於影響投資人獲利與否的關鍵類別"漲"及類別"跌"的平均預測效能上，本研究所提出的這三種分類模型亦同時具有良好的成效，可以做為投資人進行投資決策時的有效參考依據。 / Stocks' closing price levels can provide hints about investors' aggregate demands and aggregate supplies in the stock trading markets. If the level of a stock's closing price is higher than its previous closing price, it indicates that the aggregate demand is stronger than the aggregate supply in this trading day. Otherwise, the aggregate demand is weaker than the aggregate supply. It would be profitable if we can predict the individual stock's closing price level. For example, in case that one stock's current price is lower than its previous closing price. We can do the proper strategies(buy or sell) to gain profit if we can predict the stock's closing price level correctly in advance. In this thesis, we propose and evaluate three models for predicting individual stock's closing price in the Taiwan stock market. These models include a naïve Bayes model, a k-nearest neighbors model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results show the proposed methods perform better than the NewsCATS system for the "UP" and "DOWN" categories.