在Krugman (1991)引進數學的隨機微分方程解出匯率在目標區內的動態，以及闡述在匯率目標區內匯率呈現S型的走勢，提出匯率在目標區內有蜜月效果存在後，引起以後之研究熱潮。但是相關實證研究卻發現，當匯率越接近其上限水準時，有時變動益加劇烈。因此學者紛紛研究如何讓目標區理論與實證研究相符。 本文亦企圖解釋如何讓匯率目標區理論與實證相符，但與之前不同的是避開複雜的數學工具，將重點置於用圖解法來分析解決匯率目標區理論與實證研究的矛盾。本文擬從一個資本非完全自由移動的小型開放體系出發，假設物價為固定，商品需求面與貨幣供給面均存在外生隨機干擾。並假設每一個外生隨機干擾項均遵循一個不含漂浮項的布朗運動，政府當局宣告對匯率設定目標區，且在模型中加入對產出及匯率的預期。我們在此希望利用簡單易懂的圖解分析來探討在目標區政策下匯率與產出等總體變數是否存在蜜月效果。接著利用較嚴謹的數學解，運用隨機過程的轉換技巧將內生變數轉換為Ito's Process，然後用平滑連接條件解得總體變數在目標區內的真實路徑。最後再作數值模擬來探討在資本非完全自由移動下，資本移動性的大小對目標區政策有效性的影響。並藉以判斷圖解分析的正確與否。 本文結果顯示，當政府實行匯率目標區政策之後，因為資本不完全移動性及模型中產出預期項的存在，會得出與Krugman（1991）、Klein（1990）等文獻所主張的「目標區政策具有穩定效果」不相同的論點。此可用來說明為何匯率目標區理論和實證上有可能出現不同之結果。

Measuring marketing effectiveness is critical for marketers as the pharmaceutical industry is under great pressure for cost control. Pharmaceutical marketers need to optimally allocate these resources and ensure that they achieve the highest possible return on investment for the firm. Pharmaceutical manufacturers utilize a variety of marketing vehicles to promote their products to physicians and consumers. At the physician level, effects of detailing are typically identified to be positive. Direct- to-consumer advertising does impact the choice probability, but the impact of promotions aimed directly at physicians is significantly higher. Measuring value of marketing activities is important for a company to achieve a profit margin and best allocate its resources. To define and deliver quantitative measurements that justify how investment in specific marketing programs are paying off, marketers need metrics to show that their programs work. Then, selected metrics should be meaningful and related to financial performance. There are a few metrics regularly used by marketers such as brand awareness, market share, consumer attitudes toward brand, purchase intention, return on investment, lifetime value of an activity, and brand equity. The paper uses a case study to review and evaluate the effectiveness of a marketing plan for a new launch product. Specifically, return on investment (ROI) for patient programs and lifetime value of activity (LVA) for physician education programs were calculated in the case study. A company is able to increase sales profit by reallocating resources to activities with higher ROI and LVA. To conclude, marketers need to identify meaningful metrics, set up a tracking process, and regularly follow up all relevant marketing activities. The process of measuring marketing effectiveness through the tracking process will help companies to understand how the marketing activities work and whether these programs deliver profitable value growth. The follow up action to fine-tune budget plans can then optimize return of marketing investment and maximize profitability.

美洲開發銀行在海地與其基礎教育協同合作之研究 / This paper presents the findings of my researches on the matter of building “Quality education” in Haiti. The study aims to identify whether or not the efforts made to build quality education in the country after the January 2010 earthquake has achieved the results expected and consequently to propose alternative ways to achieve the goals targeted. In this sense, the paper hypothesizes that “Even with the support of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) which was selected as main partner to help in rebuilding the sector after January 2010, the actions implemented in the sector by the Government of Haiti (GOH) lack of effectiveness in building quality education. To evaluate the quality of the results achieved in the sector, the study uses a gap analysis by comparing the state of the sector before and after the earthquake. This analysis is based on a mixt of empirical data and qualitative data that were collected both through online sources and through interviews with stakeholders deeply involved in education in Haiti. The analysis has proven that performances are poor and that they have suffered from the same problems that have hindered the effectiveness of the interventions implemented in the sector even before the earthquake. In this sense, to rebuild the education sector as one major pillar to launch the country’s development process, the paper proposes building on a public-private partnership in education that should help to achieve quality education through the revamp of the following tree pillars: “quality teacher”, “quality tools” and “quality environment”.

本文共一冊，約二萬餘字，分為四章。 第一章為緒言，說明研究動機與目的；研究範圍及本文摘要。 第二章為ηRanking Method在隨機化區集法中的應用。第一節簡述隨機化區集法之實 驗程序及觀察值的構造模型；第二章說明ηRanking Method的理論基礎，包括假設形 式的轉換及次序數與Score 的求法；第三節為檢定統計量的理論及性質，包括其在虛 無及對立假設下的分配形式、與F 統計量的近似相對有效性（Asynrptotically Relative Efficievcy，A•R•E•）；第四節則計算在幾個不同的分配下，其近似相 對有效性的比值。 第三章說明ηRanking Method在二因子要因實驗中的應用。第一節敘述二因子要因實 驗之實驗方式及模式構造；第二節介紹檢定統計量之分配及其近似相對有效性的求法 ；第三節則分別在幾個不同分配下，計算其近似相對有效性的比值；第四節則考慮當 每個cell中的觀察值個數趨近無限大時，其檢定統計量的分配及近似相對有效性的求 去與幾個分配下的比值。 第四章為結論。

本文藉由圖形分析法來探討在新興古典學派、凱因斯學派、實質景氣循環學派以及古典學派四種不同總體隨機模型的觀點下，當經濟體系面臨總合供給面與總合需求面外生衝擊時，貨幣當局是否能藉由物價目標區政策的實施，達成穩定經濟體系的目標？另外，也透過數學分析法引入隨機過程轉換的技巧，採用Itô’s Lemma來求解模型中的預期變數，得到各內生變數之一般解（General Solution）。由於所得之物價、產出與利率方程式中皆包含複雜的雙曲線三角函數（Hyperbolic Function）之非線性項，無法直接從方程式中明顯看出各內生變數在目標區內的走勢，所以我們進行數值模擬，藉由明確的數值變化來為我們的分析作驗證。

就地保育被認為是保育生物多樣性的重點工作之一，而設置保護區是最常見的就地保育做法。本文的研究重點在於如何提昇保護區規劃的效率，內容可分為兩大部份。第一部份為回顧用於保護網絡規劃的保護區選擇問題理論相關研究，將研究演進方向分為保育目標、保育成本與限制條件、演算法、空間配置及有效棲地四類進行探討。第二部份為兩個個案分析。個案一為台灣保護網絡規劃研究，利用三種不同的規劃方式來尋找不同水準保育經費限制下，能使保育目標（受保護物種數）極大化的保護區組合。結果發現以OSL演算法配合互補性原則的規劃方式最佳，無論在何種保育目標水準之下其成本均是最低的。個案二為陽明山國家公園北部保護網絡規劃研究，比較考慮保護區以外土地使用類型對保育的貢獻與否，對物種存活率總和－保育成本間的關係的影響。結果發現在保育水準（物種存活率總和）很低時，兩者達到相同的保育水準所需的成本相差很多。比較保護所有棲地和將所有棲地作為農地兩種情況，假設農地對物種保育有所貢獻時，保護所有棲地能使物種存活率總和提高約1.1；若假設農地對物種保育沒有貢獻，則保護區棲地能使物種存活率總和提高約5.2。

中國在近年來經濟實力漸增，國際上貿易出超，國內股市多頭，房地產市場景氣過熱，中共有穩定經濟局勢的巨大壓力存在。因此中國宏觀調控政策的成效與否，一直是大陸學界探討與爭論的一個主題，因此本文之研究目的是希望瞭解究竟什麼是宏觀調控？宏觀調控任務為何？在2006年與2007年新一波的宏觀調控政策的執行是否有效？藉由中國宏觀調控政策對股票市場之影響來探索宏觀調控政策之有效性，希望對宏觀調控政策之研究有一新視野之探索。本文預期對宏觀調控政策對股價研究之影響進行研究，並假設宏觀調控對股價指數有漲跌之影響。並希望搜集研究宏觀調控之文獻，進而對宏觀調控之定義有一更深入之確定，以期對宏觀調控有更明確之了解。 一般來說總體股票市場會受到整個總體經濟形勢（如經濟成長好壞、國家是否有戰爭，即系統風險）、投資者對未來前景的展望（投資者的預期心理）與政府的干預政策（如證券交易稅或資本利得稅的公布）等因素所影響。假如要研究個別股票的狀況，以分析程度上來說，會更加的複雜，本文排除非系統風險的問題，單純探討股票市場的總體層面，從國家干預的角度來切入分析宏觀調控對股票市場的影響狀態。宏觀調控政策可以從短期與長期來觀察，而本文希望從短期的貨幣政策與財政政策對中國股票價格的變化來探究其政策的效果。首先，從貨幣政策開始，瞭解中國人民銀行調整存款準備率對股票市場漲跌之狀況；再分析調整利率的影響情況。第二，從財政政策來探討中國政府課徵印花稅對股價指數的變化程度瞭解政策的成效。 關鍵詞：宏觀調控、中國股市、股市泡沫、貨幣政策、政策有效性

本研究以在台灣期貨交易所上市之台灣證券交易所加權股價指數期貨、電子類股價指數期貨、金融類股價指數期貨為研究對象，探討從88年7月21日開始至89年4月19日為止，此三種本土指數期貨是否存在著套利機會。研究中將考量實際套利過程中面臨之交易成本，以建構理論價格之無套利區間，並進一步分析期貨價格與理論價格間之價差、套利機會出現頻率及其獲利空間之大小。而在套利交易過程中，由於無法一次的大量買進所有的現貨指數成份股，因此嘗試以模擬投資組合方式，建構套利現貨部位，並同時分析其模擬現貨指數之效果。最後再根據套利機會實證結果，說明國內期貨市場之有效性，並分析套利交易過程中可能面臨的套利風險。 實證研究結果獲致之結論如下： 1.台股、電子、金融指數模擬投資組合之模擬誤差平均分別為0.3335％、0.1620％、0.0730％，能夠有效的複製現貨指數之走勢。特別是電子及金融組合，其組合報酬幾乎與現貨指數同步。 2.台股期貨在考慮交易成本後，其套利機會大幅減少。 3.電子期貨價差套利機會稍多於逆價差，套利機會總共出現了76次，獲利幅度平均達0.72。 4.金融期貨套利機會總共出現了110次，幅度平均為0.75％，其中絕大部分為正價差套利機會，出現次數高達105次。 5.台股期貨較符合市場有效性之條件，電子、金融期貨則由於其套利機會出現頻繁，獲利幅度較大，其期貨市場較不具備有效性。造成此種差異之原因，可能在於從事電子、金融期貨套利交易時，投資者將面臨較大的套利風險。

<p>In statistical inference of the distribution-free straight-line regression problem, two common transformations, rank transformation and sign transformation, are used to construct the test statistics. When shall we need to use the transformations and which transformation is more efficient are two common questions met by researchers. In this thesis, we will discuss the comparison of the efficiencies of the statistics before and after the rank transformation or the sign transformation in both theoretical and practical ways. Simulation is also used to compare the efficiencies of the statistics under different distributions. Some recommendations about when to use transformations and which one to choose are put forward associated with the conclusion drawn from the research work we have done.</p>

In statistical inference of the distribution-free straight-line regression problem, two common transformations, rank transformation and sign transformation, are used to construct the test statistics. When shall we need to use the transformations and which transformation is more efficient are two common questions met by researchers. In this thesis, we will discuss the comparison of the efficiencies of the statistics before and after the rank transformation or the sign transformation in both theoretical and practical ways. Simulation is also used to compare the efficiencies of the statistics under different distributions. Some recommendations about when to use transformations and which one to choose are put forward associated with the conclusion drawn from the research work we have done.