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1	從新個案推案量、銷售量看房價─ 以台灣地區、台北市、新北市為例 / Observe Housing Price by New Housing Construction Cases’ Volume and Sale 林君澤 Unknown Date (has links) 本研究利用1997年第一季到2013第四季的新個案推案量、銷售量觀察台灣地區、台北市、新北市的房價變化。延續過往的文獻，本研究首先利用單根檢定之方式檢定台灣地區、台北市、新北市之中古屋房價租金比，實證結果發現樣本期間裡三個地區皆存在房地產泡沫，並且印證了貨幣供給量經由房貸信用擴張的管道推升房價的假設。接著以租金、所得、消費者房貸三者觀察房價，發現新北市由於政府近年投入大量重大建設使房屋區位外在環境大幅改善，但居民所得並未隨之提升使所得與房價兩者出現脫鉤。台北市則因為身為全國的發展重心，高所得的家戶與活絡的金融活動支撐了高房價。而從新個案推案量、銷售量觀察房價變化，由於台北市發展完善及地理環境使土地供給受限，新個案推案量並非觀察房價的有效指標，但台北市房地產交易卻是觀察房價景氣的良好指標。新北市、台灣地區則因為建商跟隨政府重大建設在各大重劃區推案而帶動周邊房價，但新北市的市場交易並未完全隨著房價的景氣波動。房價租金所得推案量銷售量
2	台灣季節性消費品銷售預測之研究 / The investigation of forecasting models for the sales of seasonal consumer products in Taiwan 潘家鋒, Pan, Jason Unknown Date (has links) The trend seasonal demand pattern is encountered when both trend and seasonal influences are interactive. The problem of this research is to project the seasonal market sales using ice cream and fresh milk in Taiwan as examples. In order to improve the accuracy of forecast, two different methods are validated and the best forecasting method is selected based on the minimum Mean Square Error. In this study, we present two forecasting models used for evaluation to predict seasonal market sales of ice cream, fresh milk, and air conditioner in Taiwan. It includes Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model and the Decomposition method. Two different methods are validated and the best forecasting method is selected based on the minimum Mean Square Error. After the validation process, Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model is selected based on the minimum MSE, and the monthly sales forecast for the year of 2011 is conducted using the data(60 months). Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) is used for analyzing the data which proves useful and powerful. In summary, the results demonstrate that Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model has the smallest mean square error in this case. Therefore, we conclude that both Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model and the Decomposition model are well fitted for forecasting the seasonal market sales. Yet, Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model is the better method to be used in this study since it generates the smallest mean square error (MSE) during the period of validation. 季節性消費品銷售量預測 MSE sales forecast seasonal consumer products winters decomposition mean square error NCSS
3	半導體晶圓廠投資策略與預測莊坤榮 Unknown Date (has links) 在全球持續電子化的過程中，台灣一路扮演著落實有效製造與實現設計的推手，無論從主機板、被動元件、面板、晶片設計、晶圓製造以及封裝甚至高精密組裝無所不包，在如此資本密集產業，如何操作才能達到供需平衡，為整體產業經濟創造出良性的競爭平台，避免惡性競爭，就成了不可輕忽的課題。本文以晶圓產業為探討對象。全球產能平均利用率多年來總維持於中檔 (88%)，且平均銷售單價只能緩降而無強勢反彈，近年企業無不減少資本支出來度過低潮，整合元件製造廠(IDM)相繼喊出工廠資產輕化(fab-lite)的營運策略，這時我們的命題即是：要不要繼續投資？如何調整價值鏈？本研究中，我們會先檢視目前市場對半導體成長預測的準確度，再經由產業價值活動代表性指標回歸分析法對相關參數做一整合之解析，對晶圓需求量與銷售價建立配適之模型，找出先行指標來達到預測，並定義上下限以供快速比對分析，最後再根據分析結果提出可能之產業趨勢議題。 / This thesis analyzes the semiconductor industry growth worldwide. The leading index via regressions has been established to achieve a reliable forecast on worldwide ASP, wafer demand and revenue. In the long run, we expect the semiconductor demand will continue to grow at CAGR 8% (compound annual growth rate) and display less extreme cycles than past decade. However, revenue’s CAGR might be diluted to around 5%, lower than demand’s growth. Moreover, it might go down to zero-growth for some times since the ASP still slightly trend down before emerging market demand really expanded. Continuous outsourcing is one possible solution for IDM to be fab-lite, since fab’s fix charge is billion- base that needs high utilization to maintain break-even operation. But what is the solution for foundry side to avoid ASP erosion all the way down? Our analysis identifies a need for executive managers to well predict the demand on capital expenditure when making decision. 半導體晶圓代工產能利用率預測銷售額成長率銷售價資本支出輕晶圓廠無晶圓廠銷售量迴歸分析 BB值價格腐蝕投資策略供應鍊 semiconductor foundry utilization forecast revenue growth rate ASP Capax fab-lite fab-less Sales quantity regression anaysis BB ratio Price erosion investment stretagy supply chain

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