Electricity markets may become more sensitive to weather conditions because of higher penetration of renewable energy sources and climatic changes. Albania is 100% reliant on hydropower for its domestic energy generation, making this country compelling to investigate as it is highly sensitive to changing weather conditions. We use an ARMA-GARCH model to investigate whether weather and economic factors had a relationship with monthly hydroelectricity prices in the Albanian Energy Market in the period 2013-2018. We find that electricity price is affected by variations in weather and is not utterly robust to extreme hydrological changes. Generally, our dependent variable appears to be particularly influenced by air pressure followed by temperature and rainfall. We also perceive that there is a relationship between economic factors and hydroelectricity prices, where residual supply appears to have a significant negative relationship with our dependent variable. However, we were originally anticipating a higher dependency of electricity prices on weather conditions, due to the inflated hydro-power reliance for electricity production in the Albanian Energy Market. This effect is offset by several factors, where the state monopolized behaviour of the energy sector occupies a predominant influence on our results.

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Tesis por compendio / The new legal regulations derived from climate change dictate that hydraulic structures must be designed to handle flood events associated with return periods up to 10,000 years. This obviously involves adapting the existing infrastructure to meet such requirements. In order to avoid risks in the restitution of the flow discharged to rivers, such as bank overflows or streambed erosion and scour processes, hydraulic design must be supported by reliable tools capable of reproducing the behavior of hydraulic structures. In the work presented herein, a fully three-dimensional CFD model to reproduce the behavior of different types of air-water flow in hydraulic structures is presented. The flow is assumed to be turbulent, isotropic and incompressible. Several RANS turbulence models are tested and structured rectangular meshes are employed to discretize the analyzed domain. The presence of two fluids is modeled using different VOF approaches and simulations are run using the PIMPLE algorithm. The model is implemented using the open-source platform OpenFOAM and its performance is compared to the commercial code FLOW-3D. The analysis is conducted separately on two different parts of hydraulic structures, namely: the spillway and the stilling basin. Additionally, a case of practical application, where the model reproduces the flow of a real-life case, is also presented in order to prove the suitability of the model to actual design cases. Mesh independence and model validation using experimental data are checked in the results of all the case studies. The sensitivity of the presented model to certain parameters is extensively discussed using different indicator variables. Among these parameters are turbulence closure, discretization scheme, surface tracking approach, CFD code or boundary conditions. Pros and contras of each of them are addressed. The analyzed turbulence models are the Standard k ¿ ¿, the Realizable k ¿ ¿, the RNG k ¿ ¿, and the SST k ¿ ¿. The discretization schemes under study are: a first-order upwind method, the second-order limited Van Leer method, and a second-order limited central difference method. The VOF approaches analyzed are the Partial VOF, as implemented in OpenFOAM, and the TruVOF, as implemented in FLOW-3D. In most cases, the Standard k ¿ ¿ model provides the most accurate estimations of water free surface profiles, although the rest of variables, with few exceptions, are better predicted by the RNG k ¿ ¿. The latter model generally requires slightly longer computation times. The SST k ¿ ¿ reproduces correctly the phenomena under study, although it generally turned out to be less accurate than its k ¿ ¿ counterparts. As regards the comparison among VOF approaches and codes, it is impossible to determine which one performs best. E.g. OpenFOAM, using the Partial VOF, managed to reproduce the in- ternal hydraulic jump structure and all derived variables better than FLOW-3D, using the TruVOF, although the latter seems to capture better the momentum transfer and so all derived variables. In the case of flow in stepped spillways, OpenFOAM captures better the velocity profiles, although FLOW-3D is more accurate when estimating the water free surface profile. It is worth remark- ing that not even their response to certain model parameters is comparable. E.g. FLOW-3D is significantly less sensitive to mesh refinement than OpenFOAM. Given the result accuracy achieved in all cases, the proposed model is fully applicable to more complex design cases, where stilling basins, stepped spillways and hydraulic structures in general must be investigated. / Las nuevas disposiciones legales derivadas del cambio climático dictaminan que las estructuras hidráulicas sean capaces de funcionar correctamente con eventos de inundación asociados a periodos de retorno de hasta 10,000 años. Esto, obviamente, implica adaptar la infraestructura existente para satisfacer dichos requerimientos. A fin de evitar riesgos en la restitución de los caudales vertidos al río, como desbordamientos o procesos erosivos y de socavación, el diseño hidráulico ha de sustentarse en herramientas fiables capaces de reproducir el comportamiento de las estructuras hidráulicas. En este trabajo, se presenta un modelo numérico CFD completamente tridimensional para reproducir el comportamiento de diferentes tipos de flujo aire-agua en estructuras hidráulicas. Se asume que el flujo es turbulento, isotrópico e incompresible. Diversos modelos de turbulencia RANS son contrastados y se emplean mallas estructuradas rectanuglares para discretizar el dominio analizado. La presencia de dos fluidos es modelada utilizando diferentes enfoques VOF y las simulaciones son ejecutadas empleando el algoritmo PIMPLE. El modelo es implementado mediante la plataforma de código abierto OpenFOAM y su respuesta es comparada con la del modelo comercial FLOW-3D. El análisis se lleva a cabo sobre dos partes diferentes de una estructura hidráulica, a saber, el aliviadero y el cuenco amortiguador, de forma separada. Además, un caso de aplicación práctica, donde el modelo reproduce el flujo en una estructura real, es presentado también a fin de probar la adecuación del modelo a casos de diseño aplicado. Se comprueban la independencia de la malla y la validación con datos experimentales de los resultados de todos los casos de estudio. La sensibilidad del modelo presentado a ciertos parámetros es analizada de forma exhaustiva empleando diferentes variables indicadoras. Los pros y contras de cada uno de éstos son planteados. Los modelos de turbulencia analizados son el Standard k-epsilon, el Realizable k-epsilon, el RNG k-epsilon y el SST k-omega. Los esquemas de discretización estudiados son: un método de primer orden upwind, uno de Van Leer de segundo orden y un esquema de segundo orden limitado de diferencias centradas. Los enfoques VOF analizados son el Partial VOF, implementado en OpenFOAM, y el TruVOF, implementado en FLOW-3D. En la mayoría de casos, el modelo k-epsilon aporta las estimaciones más precisas de perfiles de lámina libre de agua, pese a que el resto de variables, con alguna excepción, son mejor predichas por el RNG k-epsilon. Este modelo generalmente requiere mayores tiempos de cálculo. El k-omega reproduce correctamente los fenómenos bajo estudio, pese a que su precisión es generalmente más baja que la de los modelos k-epsilon. En lo que respecta a la comparación entre enfoques VOF y códigos, es imposible determinar cuál es el mejor. Por ejemplo, OpenFOAM, empleando el Partial VOF, logra reproducir la estructura interna del resalto hidráulico y todas las variables derivadas mejor que FLOW-3D, empleando el TruVOF, a pesar de que este último parece capturar mejor la transferencia de cantidad de movimiento y, por tanto, todas las variables derivadas. En el caso del flujo en aliviaderos escalonados, OpenFOAM captura mejor los perfiles de velocidad, pese a que FLOW-3D es más preciso en la estimación de los perfiles de lámina libre de agua. Conviene recalcar que ni tan sólo su respuesta a ciertos parámetros del modelo es comparable. Por ejemplo, FLOW-3D es significativamente menos sensible al refinado de malla que OpenFOAM. A la luz de la precisión de los resultados obtenidos en todos los casos, el modelo propuesto es completamente aplicable a casos de diseño más complejos, donde cuencos amortiguadores, aliviaderos escalonados y estructuras hidráulicas en general han de ser investigadas. / Les noves disposicions legals derivades del canvi climàtic dictaminen que cal que les estructures hidràuliques siguen capaces de funcionar correctament amb esdeveniments d'inundació associats a períodes de retorn de fins a 10,000 anys. Això, òbviament, implica adaptar la infraestrctura existent per satisfer aquests requeriments. A fi d'evitar riscs en la restitució dels cabals vessats al riu, com desbordaments o processos erosius i de socavació, el disseny hidràulic ha de recolzar-se en ferramentes fiables capaces de reproduir el comportament de les estructures hidràuliques. En aquest treball, es prsenta un model numèric CFD completament tridimensional per a reproduir el comportament de diferents tipus de flux aire-aigua en estructures hidràuliques. S'assumeix que el flux és turbulent, isotròpic i incompressible. Diferents models de turbulència RANS són contrastats i s'empren malles estructurades rectangulars per discretitzar el domini analitzat. La presència de dos fluids és modelada utilitzant diferents enfocaments VOF i les simulacions són executades emprant l'algorisme PIMPLE. El model és implementat mitjançant la plataforma de codi obert OpenFOAM i la seua resposta és comparada amb la del codi comercial FLOW-3D. L'anàlisi es du a terme sobre les diferents parts d'una estructura hidràulica, a saber, sobreeixidors esgraonats i vas esmorteïdor, de forma separada. A més, un cas d'aplicació pràctica, on el model reprodueix el flux a una estructura real, és presentat també a fi de provar l'adequació del model a casos de disseny aplicat. Es comproven la independència de la malla i la validació amb dades experimentals dels resultats de tots els casos d'estudi. La sensibilitat del model presentat a certs paràmetres és analitzada de forma exhaustiva emprant diferents variables indicadores. Els pros i contres de cadascun d'aquests són plantejats. Els models de turbulència analitzats són l'Standard k-epsilon, el Realizable k-epsilon, el RNG k-epsilon i l'SST k-omega. Els esquemes de discretització estudiats són: un mètode de primer ordre upwind, un de Van Leer de segon ordre i un esquema de segon ordre limitat de diferències centrades. Els enfocaments VOF analitzats són el Partial VOF, implementat en OpenFOAM, i el TruVOF, implementat en FLOW-3D. En la majoria de casos, el model Standard k-epsilon aporta les estimacions més precises de perfils de làmina lliure d'aigua, tot i que la resta de variables, amb alguna excepció, són millor predites pel RNG k-epsilon. Aquest model generalment requereix majors temps de càlcul. El k-omega reprodueix correctament els fenòmens sota estudi, tot i que la seua precisió és generalment més baixa que la dels models k-epsilon. Pel que fa la comparació entre enfocaments VOF i codis, és impossible determinar quin és el millor. Per exemple, OpenFOAM, emprant el Partial VOF, aconsegueix reproduir l'estructura interna del ressalt hidràulic i totes les variables derivades millor que FLOW-3D, emprant el TruVOF, tot i que aquest últim pareix capturar millor la transferència de quantitat de moviment i, per tant, totes les variables derivades. En el cas del flux en sobreeixidors esgraonats, OpenFOAM captura millor els perfils de velocitat, tot i que FLOW-3D és més precís en estimar els perfils de làmina lliure d'aigua. Cal deixar palès que ni tan sols la seua resposta a certs paràmetres del model és comparable. Per exemple, FLOW-3D és significativament menys sensible al refinament de malla que OpenFOAM. En base a la precisió dels resultats obtinguts en tots els casos, el model proposat és completament aplicable a casos de disseny més complexos, on vassos esmorteïdors, sobreeixidors esgraonats i estructures hidràuliques en general han de ser investigades. / Bayón Barrachina, A. (2017). Numerical analysis of air-water flows in hydraulic structures using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/90440 / Compendio

Im Rahmen eines vierjährigen Feldversuches wurden der Einfluss von Bodenbearbeitung, Bodenbedeckung und Stickstoffdüngung auf die N-Dynamik und N-Verlagerung während der Winterhalbjahre und deren Nachwirkungen auf die Hauptfrucht der nachfolgenden Vegetationsperiode untersucht. Es zeigte sich, dass sich neben den Prüffaktoren auch Unterschiede der Vorfrucht und des Witterungsverlaufes auf die Höhe der Nitratauswaschung über Winter auswirkten. Generell führte der Anbau von Winterrübsen gegenüber der Brache erwartungsgemäß zu einer Reduzierung des N-Austrages, was sowohl auf die geringeren Sickerwassermengen als auch auf die geringeren Nitratkonzentrationen in der Bodenlösung zurückzuführen war. Die N-Konservierung der Winterrübsen wirkte sich auf die folgende Hauptfrucht positiv hinsichtlich der Stickstoffverfügbarkeit im Oberboden und der N-Aufnahme des Sommerweizens während dessen Standzeit aus. Der Schwerpunkt in der methodischen Vorgehensweise dieser Arbeit lag in der Erfassung der Sickerwassermengen zur Abschätzung der N-Verlagerung anhand der Daten der Nitratkonzentration in der Bodenlösung. Die Durchflussmengen im Boden wurden ausgehend von der klimatischen Wasserbilanz und unter Berücksichtigung der Veränderungen der Bodenwasservorräte bestimmt, die anhand von Messungen der Matrixpotentiale und der Kenntnis der Bodenwassercharakteristika im Profilverlauf des Bodens berechnet wurden. Dieser Ansatz wurde drei weiteren Ansätzen gegenübergestellt. Diese sind die klimatische Wasserbilanz, die klimatische Wasserbilanz unter Berücksichtigung der Veränderungen der Bodenwasservorräte anhand der volumetrischen Wassergehaltsmessung mit Hilfe der TDR-Messtechnik und die Bestimmung der Perkolation mittels Wasserleitfähigkeitsfunktionen und Potentialgradienten. Mögliche Fehlerquellen der verschiedenen Ansätze wurden diskutiert und Schlussfolgerungen für die praktische Versuchsdurchführung gezogen. / The influence of different tillage managements, soil covering and different nitrogen applications on the N-dynamic and N-leaching during winter and their effects during the following vegetation period have been investigated within the scope of a field trial of several years. Beside these treatments, differences of the preceding crop type and climatic conditions showed also effects on the amount of nitrate leaching during winter. The cultivation of winter rape compared to fallow reduced the N-leaching in accordance with the expectations; generally this was the result of lower rates of water flow as well as lower nitrate concentrations in the soil solution. During the successive vegetation periods the N-conservation by the catch crop led to higher nitrate contents in the soil, particularly in the upper layer, and to an increasing N-uptake of the fallowing spring wheat. Focal point of the methodical proceeding of this study was the recording of the downward water movement to estimate the N-leaching in combination with the nitrate concentration in the soil solution. The calculation of the water movement in the soil based on the climatic water balance in consideration of the variation of the soil water content; the changes in the soil water were determined by data of the soil matrix potential and the knowledge of the moisture characteristics of the horizons, their positions and their wideness. This approach was based to present the results, and was then compared with three other ones. These were the climatic water balance, the climatic water balance in consideration of the variation of the soil water content by data of the changes of the volumetric soil water content measured by ‘time domain reflectrometry’ and the calculation of water flow with hydraulic conductivity functions and data of the hydraulic potentials. Possible sources of error of the methods are discussed to draw conclusions for conducting field trials.

Les infrastructures de transport est essentielle au maintien et à l'expansion des activités sociales et économiques dans les régions circumpolaires. À mesure que le climat se réchauffe, la dégradation du pergélisol sous les remblais a entraîné de graves dommages structuraux à la route, entraînant une augmentation importante des coûts d'entretien et une réduction de la durée de vie des infrastructures. Pendant ce temps, l'advection de chaleur déclenchée par les écoulements d’eau souterrains peut altérer le bilan énergétique du remblai et du pergélisol sous-jacent et modifier le régime thermique des remblais routiers. Cependant, peu de recherches ont été effectuées pour comprendre la synergie entre les processus thermiques de surface et souterrains des remblais routiers des régions froides. L'objectif de cette recherche était de comprendre les interactions thermiques entre l'atmosphère, le remblai routier, les écoulements d’eau et le pergélisol dans le contexte du changement climatique. Cette base, de connaissances est nécessaire pour la conception technique, l'entretien des routes et l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité des infrastructures. Les travaux de recherche ont permis de développer de nouvelles méthodes d'analyse thermique pour caractériser et identifier le rôle de l'advection thermique sur le changement de température d'un remblai routier expérimental au Yukon (Canada) en termes d’intensité, de vitesse et de profondeur de l'impact thermique. Les résultats montrent que l'augmentation de la température due aux flux de chaleur advectifs déclenchés par l’écoulement d'eau peut être jusqu'à deux ordres de grandeur plus rapide qu'en raison du seul réchauffement atmosphérique. La recherche a ensuite présenté un bilan énergétique de surface pour quantifier la quantité d'énergie entrant dans le centre et la pente du remblai avec des épaisseurs et des propriétés de neige variables. Le tout a été appuyé par des observations géothermique de plusieurs années et une grande quantité de données météorologiques. Les résultats illustrent que le bilan énergétique de surface est principalement contrôlé par le rayonnement net et moins par le flux de chaleur sensible. Le flux de chaleur transmis à la pente du remblai diminue de façon exponentielle avec l'augmentation de l'épaisseur de la neige et diminue de façon linéaire avec l’installation du couvert de neige et la longueur de la période d’enneigement. De plus, un modèle de bilan énergétique de surface et un modèle cryohydrologique entièrement couplé ont été développés pour étudier l'impact thermique de l'advection de chaleur associée à l'écoulement de l'eau souterraine sur le dégel du pergélisol et le développement de taliks (c.-à-d. zone perpétuellement non gelée dans les zones de pergélisol). Le modèle couplé a réussi à reproduire la tendance à la hausse du plafond du pergélisol (erreur absolue moyenne <0,2 m) au cours de la période 1997-2018. Les résultats montrent que l'advection de chaleur a fourni une source d'énergie supplémentaire pour accélérer le dégel du pergélisol et a doublé le taux d’augmentation de l’épaisseur de la couche active 0,1 m·a-1 à 0,19 m·a-1, par rapport au scénario où aucun écoulement d'eau ne se produit. Le talik s'est initialement formé et développé en fonction du temps sous l’effet combiné des écoulement d’eau, de l'isolation de la neige, de la construction de la route et du réchauffement climatique. Le débit d'eau souterraine a relié des corps isolés de talik et a amené le remblai de la route dans un état thermique irréversible, en raison de la rétroaction de l'eau liquide (effet de chaleur latente) piégée dans le talik. Ces résultats montrent l'importance de l'advection de chaleur induite par l'écoulement d'eau sur le régime thermique de la sous-couche (c.-à-d. la couche de matériau de remblai) et du sous-sol (c.-à-d. le matériau natif sous un remblai) du remblai lorsque le remblai routier intercepte le drainage local. De plus, les résultats obtenus soulignent la nécessité de coupler les processus thermiques de surface et souterrains dans le but d'évaluer la stabilité thermique des routes subarctiques. / Transportation infrastructure is crucial to maintaining and expanding the social and economic activities in circumpolar regions. As the climate warms, degradation of the permafrost causes severe structural damages to the road embankment, leading to large increases in maintenance costs and reductions in its lifespan. Meanwhile, heat advection triggered by mobile water flow can alter energy balance of the embankment and underlying permafrost and modify the thermal regime of road embankments. However, little research has been done to understand the synergy between surface and subsurface thermal processes of cold region road embankments. The overall goal of this research was to elucidate thermal interactions between the atmosphere, the road embankment, mobile water flow, and permafrost within the context of climate change. This knowledge is needed for engineered design, road maintenance, and infrastructure vulnerability assessment. The research first used new thermal analysis to characterize and identify the role of heat advection on temperature change of an experimental road embankment, Yukon, Canada in terms of magnitude, rate and thermal impact depth. It shows that soil temperature increase due to advective heat fluxes triggered by mobile water flow can be up to two orders of magnitude faster than due to atmospheric warming only. The research then presented a novel surface energy balance to quantify the amount of ground heat flux entering the embankment center and slope with varying snow depth and properties, supported by multi-year thermal and meteorological observations. My results illustrate that the surface energy budget is mainly controlled by net radiation, and less by the sensible heat flux. The ground heat flux released at embankment slope exponentially decreased with the increase of snow depth, and was linearly reduced with earlier snow cover and longer snow-covered period. A fully integrated surface energy balance and cryohydrogeological model was implemented to investigate the thermal impact of heat advection associated with subsurface water flow on permafrost thaw and talik (i.e., perennially unfrozen zone in permafrost areas) development. The integrated model successfully reproduced the observed increasing trend of the active layer depth (mean absolute error < 0.2 m) over the 1997-2018 period. The results show that heat advection provided an additional energy source to expedite permafrost thaw, doubling the increasing rate of permafrost table depth from 0.1 m·a-1 to 0.19 m·a-1, compared with the scenario where no water flow occurs. Talik formation and development occurred over time under the combined effect of subsurface water flow, snow insulation, road construction and climate warming. Subsurface water flow connected isolated talik bodies and triggered an irreversible thermal state for the road embankment, due to a local feedback mechanism (latent heat effect) of trapped, unfrozen water in talik. These findings elucidate the importance of heat advection induced by mobile water flow on the thermal regime of embankment subbase (i.e., a layer of fill material) and subgrade (i.e., the native material under an embankment) when the road embankment intercepts the local drainage. Furthermore, the obtained results emphasize the need to couple surface and subsurface thermal processes to evaluate the thermal stability of sub-Arctic roads.

The Walla Walla basin lies in an arid region of Eastern Washington and Oregon. A large portion of the area is devoted to agricultural production, relying on irrigation water diverted from the Walla Walla River and underlying aquifers occurring within Quaternary and Mio-pliocene era gravel deposits, as well as a supplemental source from the Columbia River Basalt formation. Heavy water demand over summer months has resulted in a fully allocated surface water supply and significant drawdown in groundwater levels. The Walla Walla River also hosts two salmonid species listed as threatened under the endangered species act and entitled to federal protection. Specific questions have emerged regarding regional water supply as stakeholders work towards management strategies that meet water user demands, well also addressing concerns such as groundwater depletion and fish habitat. Currently, there are proposals aimed at increasing water use efficiency such as the lining of permeable canal beds and the expansion of a shallow aquifer recharge program. Effective implementation of such strategies, in part, relies on understanding the interactions between surface water and groundwater within this region. This project used the distributed hydrologic model, Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), for simulating surface and subsurface flows over a portion of the Walla Walla River basin spanning from Milton Freewater, Oregon to west of Touchet, Washington. This application of IWFM uses a grid with an average spacing of 100 x 100 meters over the 230 square kilometer model area. The model was developed and calibrated using data from 2007 through 2009, with 2010 data to be used as a data set for validation. Data collection has been a collaborative effort between a research team from Oregon State University and the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council (WWBWC). This thesis provides explanation and documentation of model development. This includes details of data collection and processing for groundwater and surface water conditions, estimation of initial and boundary conditions, parameter calibration, model validation, and error analysis. Data sources include federal and state agencies, a gauge network managed by the WWBWC, and geologic research primarily performed by Kevin Lindsey of GSI Water Solutions with support of the WWBWC. Parameters have been independently determined from field measurements whenever possible. Otherwise they were estimated using established methods of hydrologic analysis, values drawn from previous regional studies, or the process of model calibration. Outputs include detailed hydrological budgets and hydrographs for groundwater and surface water gauges. The calibrated model has an overall correlation coefficient of 0.59 for groundwater and 0.63 for surface water. The standard deviation for groundwater is 3.2 meters at 62 well locations and surface water has a mean relative error of 22.3 percent at 34 gauges. This model intended as a tool for formulating water budgets for the basin under present conditions and making predictions of systemic responses to hypothetical water management scenarios. Scenarios of increased inputs into the Locher Road aquifer recharge site and conversion of irrigation district canals into pipelines are presented. / Graduation date: 2012