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Envelhecimento populacional e o surgimento de novas demandas de políticas públicas em Viana/ESOliveira, Anderson Silva 01 April 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015 / Na área das políticas públicas, mais pessoas alcançando idades mais elevadas e
vivendo por mais tempo ampliam as demandas por serviços públicos, criam novas
necessidades e exigem dos municípios a oferta de um atendimento mais eficiente e
mais amplo que possibilite aos idosos, condições favoráveis para que os mesmos
tenham uma velhice saudável e ativa. Com o objetivo de prestar uma contribuição para que os idosos tenham uma qualidade de vida cada vez melhor, foi desenvolvida essa pesquisa que caracteriza
o envelhecimento em Viana, município com 7,8% de idosos e que identifica as novas
demandas de políticas públicas que surgem atreladas ao aumento da participação
dos idosos na população total. A realização de entrevistas a profissionais ligados a prefeitura municipal, a
representantes da sociedade civil que desenvolvem ações com idosos e finalmente
a moradores de mais de 60 anos, contribuíram para identificar as principais
necessidades do grupo etário de 60 anos ou mais. As maiores carências segundo os
idosos entrevistados são o atendimento de saúde e as opções de lazer.
Maiores discussões, realização de pesquisas e de campanhas educativas
contribuirão para acabar com o ainda enorme preconceito existente no Brasil que
não atribui ao cidadão idoso o seu real valor e significação. / In the area of public policies more people are reaching older ages and living longer,
increasing the demand for public services creating new necessities and requiring
from the municipalities an efficient and wider service which allows to the elderly
people favorable conditions to have a healthy and an active life.
In order to provide a humble contribution that older people have an increasingly
better quality of life was developed this research featuring aging in Viana a city with
7.8% of the elderly and identifying new public policy demands that arise linked to
increased participation of older people in the total population .
Conducting interviews with professionals from the city government the civil society
representatives providing aid to elderly and finally the residents of more than 60
years helped to identify the main needs of the age group of 60 years or more. The
greatest need according to those interviewed elderly include health care and leisure
facilities. Further discussions conducting research and educational campaigns will help to end
the still huge prejudice existing in Brazil that does not give the senior citizen their real
value and significance.
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Espaços pluriativos da agricultura familiar em Domingos Martins-ESGuaitolini, Renata Nunes 09 July 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015 / Os espaços pluriativos da agricultura familiar são caracterizados como
estabelecimentos rurais, pertencentes a agricultores familiares, nos quais são
desenvolvidos tanto atividades agropecuárias quanto atividades não
agropecuárias, por vezes incentivadas por políticas públicas. Para melhor
compreensão desses espaços e dos aspectos pertinentes a sua formação, tais
como os culturais, espaciais, econômicos e políticos, buscou-se através de um
estudo de caso entender as especificidades que levaram a formação dos
espaços pluriativos da agricultura familiar no Município de Domingos Martins
(ES) – a escolha deste município se deve tanto a importância quanto à
quantidade de estabelecimentos da agricultura familiar existentes em seu
território, além do crescimento de atividades não agrícolas dentro dos
estabelecimentos rurais, principalmente de atividades relacionadas ao
agroturismo. Percebemos – por meio da análise dos estabelecimentos
pertencentes aos Circuitos Turísticos Rurais de Domingos Martins – a relação
existente entre os espaços pluriativos da agricultura familiar e o turismo rural, o
agroturismo e/ou o ecoturismo. Assim, identificamos o turismo como elemento
catalisador de políticas públicas e compreendemos que por meio dele as
propriedades rurais familiares são construídas e/ou transformadas para o
atendimento de uma demanda turística, o que se manifesta a partir da
introdução de práticas pluriativas no interior desses mesmos espaços. / The pluriactive spaces of family farming are characterized as farms belonging to
farmers which are developed both in agricultural activities and non-agricultural
activities, sometimes encouraged by public policies. For better understanding of
these spaces and the relevant aspects of your training, such as cultural, spatial,
economic and political, was sought through a case study to understand the
specifics that led to the formation of pluriactive spaces of family farming in
Domingos Martins (ES) - the choice of this city is due both the importance and
the amount of existing establishments of family farming in its territory, in
addition to the growth of non-agricultural activities within the farms, especially
activities related to agroturism. We realize - through the analysis of
establishments belonging to the Rural's Circuits tourism of Domingos Martins -
the relationship between pluriactive spaces of family farming and rural tourism,
agro-tourism and / or ecotourism. Therefore, we identified tourism as a catalyst
for public policy and understand that through him the family farms are built and /
or processed to meet a tourist demand, which manifests from the introduction of
pluriactive practices within those spaces.
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Rolig eller orolig - en jämförande analys av seriemagasinen 91:an & GalagoHängsel, Sara January 2005 (has links)
Serier har sedan länge betraktats som ett andra klassens kulturella medium,med ett dåligt rykte som enkla och lättförståeliga. Majoriteten av seriemagasin ligger fortfarande i ett väntrum någonstans, för att då och då ytligt bläddras igenom; de tas inte på allvar. Och alternativen lyser med sin frånvaro; tillhör de inte skaran som ytligt bläddras igenom syns de nästan inte till överhuvudtaget. Uppsatsen tar sig dels an hur "de andra" ser ut, de som vågade och ville. Dels fokuserar den på vad som egentligen finns i de etablerade, ”lättförståeliga” seriemagasinen för att slutligen jämföra de båda med varandra.
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Avaliação do composto ósseo de Ricinus (C.O.R.) granulado e Hidroxiapatita (HAP-91) na osteointegração. Estudos: histológico, morfométrico e densitométrico / Evaluation of compound bone of granulated Ricinus (C.O.R.) and Hydroxyapatite (HAP-91) on the osseointegration in rabbits. Studies: histological, morphometric and densitometricMateus, Christiano Pavan 06 November 2013 (has links)
No estudo da osteointegração, os resultados adquiridos através dos softwares analisadores de imagens contribuirão para que se tenha uma melhor visualização da interface tecido biológico/material implantado. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar, por meio de estudos histológico, morfométrico e densitométrico, as interfaces tecido ósseo/materiais implantados em comparação com o grupo controle (coágulo), descrevendo qualitativa e quantitativamente os resultados dessas análises. Foram selecionados 16 coelhos, Oryctolagus cuniculus, com idade de 90 dias, sendo estes divididos em quatro grupos de quatro animais (G1, G2, G3 e G4), com períodos pós-operatórios de sete, 15, 21 e 35 dias. Em cada animal, foram feitos dois defeitos ósseos nas tíbias direitas, preenchidos com o biomaterial Composto Ósseo de Ricinus (C.O.R.) granulado e o Grupo Controle (coágulo); na tíbia esquerda, preencheu-se com o biomaterial Hidroxiapatita (HAP-91). Após a eutanásia, as peças cirúrgicas foram removidas, identificadas e submetidas às análises. A análise histológica evidenciou, para os dois biomateriais, um grande aporte de células osteoprogenitoras e, com o avanço dos períodos experimentais, a deposição de um tecido ósseo mais desenvolvido. Estes resultados qualitativos corroboraram com a análise morfométrica, evidenciando a osteointegração pela aproximação das corticais ósseas. Com o estudo densitométrico, pôde-se acompanhar, por imagens tridimensionais e coloridas, o desempenho de cada biomaterial implantado e o grupo controle com o tecido ósseo. Concluiu-se que os dois biomateriais implantados se comportam de uma maneira muito desejável para que se constituam como uma escolha de materiais substitutos da reposição óssea. / In the study of osseointegration, the results acquired through the images analysis softwares, contribute in order to have a better view of the biological tissue/ material implanted interface. The aim of this study was to evaluate through studies: histological, morphometric and densitometric, the interactions of bone tissue / implanted materials in comparison with the control group (clot), and describing qualitatively and quantitatively the results of these analyzes. Were selected 16 rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, with 90 days of age and divided into four groups of four animals (G1, G2, G3 and G4), and postoperative periods of seven, 15, 21 and 35 days. In each animal, two bone defects were made on the right tibia, and were filled with the (C.O.R.) Compound Bone of granulated Ricinus biomaterial and control group (clot); and in the left tibia, filled it with (HAP-91) Hydroxyapatite biomaterial. After euthanasia, the tibial bone was removed, identified and submitted for analyzes. The histological analysis showed for both biomaterials, a large amount of osteoprogenitor cells and, with the advancement of the experimental periods, the deposition of more developed bone tissue. These qualitative results corroborated with the morphometric analysis, showing the osseointegration by approximation of the cortical bones. With the densitometric study, could be accompanied, by three-dimensional images and colorful, the performance of each implanted biomaterial and the control group with the bone tissue. It was concluded that both implanted biomaterials behave in a manner very desirable to be constituted as a choice of substitute materials for the bone replacement.
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Avaliação do composto ósseo de Ricinus (C.O.R.) granulado e Hidroxiapatita (HAP-91) na osteointegração. Estudos: histológico, morfométrico e densitométrico / Evaluation of compound bone of granulated Ricinus (C.O.R.) and Hydroxyapatite (HAP-91) on the osseointegration in rabbits. Studies: histological, morphometric and densitometricChristiano Pavan Mateus 06 November 2013 (has links)
No estudo da osteointegração, os resultados adquiridos através dos softwares analisadores de imagens contribuirão para que se tenha uma melhor visualização da interface tecido biológico/material implantado. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar, por meio de estudos histológico, morfométrico e densitométrico, as interfaces tecido ósseo/materiais implantados em comparação com o grupo controle (coágulo), descrevendo qualitativa e quantitativamente os resultados dessas análises. Foram selecionados 16 coelhos, Oryctolagus cuniculus, com idade de 90 dias, sendo estes divididos em quatro grupos de quatro animais (G1, G2, G3 e G4), com períodos pós-operatórios de sete, 15, 21 e 35 dias. Em cada animal, foram feitos dois defeitos ósseos nas tíbias direitas, preenchidos com o biomaterial Composto Ósseo de Ricinus (C.O.R.) granulado e o Grupo Controle (coágulo); na tíbia esquerda, preencheu-se com o biomaterial Hidroxiapatita (HAP-91). Após a eutanásia, as peças cirúrgicas foram removidas, identificadas e submetidas às análises. A análise histológica evidenciou, para os dois biomateriais, um grande aporte de células osteoprogenitoras e, com o avanço dos períodos experimentais, a deposição de um tecido ósseo mais desenvolvido. Estes resultados qualitativos corroboraram com a análise morfométrica, evidenciando a osteointegração pela aproximação das corticais ósseas. Com o estudo densitométrico, pôde-se acompanhar, por imagens tridimensionais e coloridas, o desempenho de cada biomaterial implantado e o grupo controle com o tecido ósseo. Concluiu-se que os dois biomateriais implantados se comportam de uma maneira muito desejável para que se constituam como uma escolha de materiais substitutos da reposição óssea. / In the study of osseointegration, the results acquired through the images analysis softwares, contribute in order to have a better view of the biological tissue/ material implanted interface. The aim of this study was to evaluate through studies: histological, morphometric and densitometric, the interactions of bone tissue / implanted materials in comparison with the control group (clot), and describing qualitatively and quantitatively the results of these analyzes. Were selected 16 rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, with 90 days of age and divided into four groups of four animals (G1, G2, G3 and G4), and postoperative periods of seven, 15, 21 and 35 days. In each animal, two bone defects were made on the right tibia, and were filled with the (C.O.R.) Compound Bone of granulated Ricinus biomaterial and control group (clot); and in the left tibia, filled it with (HAP-91) Hydroxyapatite biomaterial. After euthanasia, the tibial bone was removed, identified and submitted for analyzes. The histological analysis showed for both biomaterials, a large amount of osteoprogenitor cells and, with the advancement of the experimental periods, the deposition of more developed bone tissue. These qualitative results corroborated with the morphometric analysis, showing the osseointegration by approximation of the cortical bones. With the densitometric study, could be accompanied, by three-dimensional images and colorful, the performance of each implanted biomaterial and the control group with the bone tissue. It was concluded that both implanted biomaterials behave in a manner very desirable to be constituted as a choice of substitute materials for the bone replacement.
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Arquitectures espontànies, reflexions sobre constants en arquitectura : la península del Cap de Creus, una topografia en el tempsGironés Saderra, Antoni 22 January 2016 (has links)
Hi ha arquitectures on les relacions vinculades amb l’habitabilitat i establertes entre els seus diferents elements, son sempre produïdes a partir de criteris funcionals, i en cap cas ni formal ni espacialment, condicionades per criteris compositius.
Arquitectures com a resultat i conseqüència de la necessitat i de l’escassetat de recursos, i que sempre han transformat l’excedent en possibilitat. De proximitat en quan han estat realitzades amb les pròpies mans i amb materials propers producte dels processos derivats de la transformació del medi; i arquitectures on l’inventiva i per força la curiositat a partir d´un primer gest espontàni sempre les ha caracteritzat, emprant tècniques molt essencials, senzilles i austeres que s´han anat perfeccionant per decantació en el temps, derivant en les conegudes arquitectures vernacles, populars o més recentment en les que trobem en els entorns periurbans d´algunes grans ciutats i que se les coneix per arquitectures informals.
Per tant, en aquest treball de recerca utilitzo el terme espontani per a referir-me a aquelles arquitectures que des del període Neolític com a origen del medi agrari i de la domesticitat de la natura, han treballat a partir d’una tradició oral allunyada dels centres cultes i de poder, i en un temps clarament pre-industrial, el qual no exclou tal i com s’ha mencionat, que actituds i maneres de fer molt similars s´hagin mantingut fins els nostres díes en entorns on part de les condicions abans mencionades encara són vigents.
Dins d’aquest grup o conjunt genèric que acabo d’introduir, la tesi es centra en un cas d´estudi concret i en una geografía molt determinada: la península del Cap de Creus i les seves aproximadament 10.000Ha de superfície terrestre. Entesa com a una topografía en el temps a cavall de les dinàmiques naturals i de la intervenció humana, aquesta geografía ha estat sistemàticament intervinguda, i molt concretament i amb gran intensitat quan la nostra espècie s´ha vist amb la necessitat de construïr una suma de grans extensions de plà horitzontal per a poder conrear, en una topografia prèvia molt accidentada i en una condició de límit molt potent en la trobada del pre-Pirineu amb el mar Mediterrani.
La construcció d´aquesta gran infraestructura agrícola s’ha materialitzat únicament amb la pedra del lloc, generant tot un sistema de condicions vinculades a la habitabilitat i de les que s’en deriven diferents tipus i solucions que ens parlen del més essencial en arquitectura.
És objecte de la tesi rastrejar, mesurar, registrar, descriure i comparar una realitat de la que no se’n té plena consciència de la seva dimensió i abast, utilitzant fonamentalment el dibuix com a instrument per a construir i mostrar-ne un rostre parcialment amagat durant molt anys, i que expectant , ens parla d´un territori materialitzat en una successió de temps, en el seu moment presents, però sempre com a esperança i opció de futur.
Preguntant i reflexionant en diferents parts del treball sobre constants vinculades a les condicions específicament funcionals de l´arquitectura, la tesi va de la geografía al territori per a concloure demostrant, com determinades associacions espontànies entre els diferents elements arquitectònics que formen part d´aquesta gran antropització i els sistemes naturals, han construït determinats enclaus del Cap de Creus que, paradoxalment, la societat actual segueix interpretant com a una geografía vinculada a un paisatge natural.
És una tesi també produïda per decantació en el temps al llarg dels anys, i plantejada com un procés obert tant en relació amb el passat com amb el futur. La seva presentació, vol ser un interval en aquest procés, i un lloc on es sintetitzen les hipòtesis establertes fins el moment, però que indefectiblement, és una recerca que igualment es projecta cap al futur. / There are architectures where relations connected with habitability and established between its different elements, are always produced from functional criteria, and under no circumstances formal or spatially conditioned by compositional criteria.
Architectures as a result and consequence of the need and the scarcity of resources, and they have always transformed the surplus possibility. Proximity architectures, as have been made with their own hands and with surrounding materials derived from the processes of transformation of the environment, and where the inventiveness and curiosity force from a first spontaneous gesture always been characterized. Architectures that have used very basic, simple and austere techniques have been refined by decanting in time, resulting in the familiar vernacular architecture, popular or most recently in which we find in peri-urban environments and large cities are known and informal architectures.
Therefore, in this research I use the term spontaneous to refer to those architectures that from the Neolithic period as the origin of the agricultural environment and the domestication of nature, have worked from a remote oral tradition of worship centers and of power, in a clearly per-industrial time, which does not exclude as mentioned, that attitudes and ways of doing similar have remained to this day, in environments where some of the conditions mentioned above are still in force.
Within this group or generic set that just entered, the thesis focuses on a specific case study and a specific geography: the Cap de Creus peninsula and its approximately 10000Ha of Earth’s surface. Understood as a topography in time somewhere between the natural dynamics and human interventions, this geography has been systematically intervened very strongly and specifically, when our species has seen the need to build a sum of large areas of horizontal plane to cultivate in a previous very rugged topography and a powerful boundary condition in the meeting of the pre-Pyrenees to the Mediterranean Sea.
The construction of this great agricultural infrastructure has materialized only with the local stone, creating a whole system of conditions attached to the livability and different types and solutions that speak of the most essential architecture is derived.
The object of the thesis track, measure, record, discover and compare a reality that you do not have full awareness of its size and scope. Mainly using the drawing as a tool to build and display a face partially hidden for many years and expectant, tells of a territory materialized in a series of times, present at the time, but always with hope and future option.
Asking and reflecting on different parts of the work on the constant linked to specific functional requirements for the architecture, geography thesis goes to the territory to conclude demonstrating, as different spontaneous associations between different architectural elements that are part of this
great antropitzación and natural systems have built certain enclaves of Cap de Creus, paradoxically, the current society is playing as a geography linked to a natural landscape.
It is also produced by decantation thesis in time over the years and raised as an open both in relation to the past and the future process. His presentation wants to be a gap in this process and a place where hitherto established approaches are synthesized, but it is still an investigation that also projects into the future.
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Insights into the study of religious experience gained from a comparison of the accounts by Bernard of Cairvaux with accounts by modern experiencersKnight, Hilary January 2013 (has links)
No description available.
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Effects of different heat treatments on hardness of Grade 91 steel / Effekter av olika värmebehandlingar på hårdheten hos Grade 91 stålOhlsson, Jonas January 2014 (has links)
CCI Valve Technology AB is a company located in Säffle, Sweden, that manufactures and installs bypass valves. Due to requirements outside normal standards on the valve's hardness values, some measurements have had difficulties meeting such requirements. During this thesis work, tests were carried out to determine how to overcome the difficulties. The experiments focused on five different areas that may affect the components hardness, welding method, soaking temperature during post weld heat treatment, measuring procedure, component thickness and number of heat treatment cycles. The Grade 91 steel specimens that were examined consisted of five solid cylinders and three various pipes that were welded together by using shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) or gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW). Each pipe was sawed apart into three equal parts. All specimens were hardness tested and eight of the specimens' microstructure was studied with an optical microscope. The hardness measurement instruments used, LECO V-100-C2 and GE-MIC 10, are Vickers hardness testers, one stationary and the other one portable. The measuring results contain a vast number of different hardness measurement data. From the analyzed data, the conclusions were drawn that the most suitable soaking temperature during post weld heat treatment were 750° C, that the SMAW method creates a more stable hardness profile than the GTAW method, and that one heat treatment cycle is more beneficial than two or more.
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Climate change impacts on winter tourism in the Pyrenees and adaptation strategiesPons Pons, Marc 07 November 2014 (has links)
Climate Change has become no longer a conjecture but an objective reality. The increase of the global average temperature, the seas level rise or the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are some examples observed during the past century that have turned the global warming into a sharply contrasted evidence. In this context of climate change, mountain regions have been defined as especially vulnerable areas. The rapid retreat of glaciers and permafrost surfaces, the decrease of snow precipitations, the increase of natural risks such as landslides or the alteration in the amount and distribution of some species prove the high sensitivity of mountain ecosystems. Moreover, in many mountain economies, reliable snowpack plays a key role as an important resource for the winter tourism industry, one of the main income source and driving force of local development in such regions. For this reason, research on the effects of Climate Change on the snowpack depth and duration is particularly necessary in order to assess the potential socioeconomic impacts in mountain regions. If we focus on Andorra and the Pyrenees, there is a research gap due to a clearly lack of academic studies in this field. For this reason, it is not accurately known how Climate Change will affect the ski industry and which are the most suitable adaptation strategies for this specific region.
The main goal of this research is to analyze how climate change could affect the snow cover and the snowpack in the Pyrenean ski resorts and to assess the resulting vulnerability of the ski industry of this region. Moreover, the adaptive behavior of skiers to climate change has been included in the analysis in order to analyze the potential redistribution of visitors among the ski resorts due to heterogeneous climate change vulnerability. Based on the results, this study analyzes the suitability and sustainability of the adaptation techniques and strategies to offset the climate variability, first in a case study of Andorra in order to develop a preliminary model and finally extending the analysis to the whole Pyrenees in order to assess the potential concurrence among ski resorts with differentiated climate vulnerability and tourism attractiveness and the resulting redistribution of skiers based on their behavioral adaptation to climate effects.
Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions and two more including the effect of snowmaking. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones. / En els darrers anys, el canvi climàtic ha passat de ser una conjectura a una realitat objectiva. L'increment de la temperatura en superfície, l'increment del nivell del mar o l'increment de la freqüència i la magnitud d'alguns fenòmens meteorològics extrems són alguns exemples de canvis observats durant el segle passat que han fet el canvi climàtic una evidència contrastada. En aquest context, les regions de muntanya han estat identificades com a zones especialment vulnerables. El retrocès de les glaceres, els canvis en els patrons de precipitacions en forma de neu o les alteracions en la quantitat i la distribució d'algunes espècies animals i vegetals són algunes proves de l'alta sensitivitat dels ecosistemes de muntanya. A més a més, en moltes economies de muntanya, la disponibilitat de neu juga un paper clau com a recurs fonamental del turisme d'hivern, una de les principals activitats econòmiques i important motor de desenvolupament local en aquestes regions. Per aquest motiu, entendre els efectes del canvi climàtic sobre la cobertura de neu, i especialment en les zones d'esquí, és especialment necessària per tal d'avaluar alguns dels possibles impactes socioeconòmics en les regions de muntanya. Si ens centrem en el cas d'Andorra i el Pirineu en general, existeix una manca d'estudis acadèmics que analitzin amb detall com el canvi climàtic pot afectar el turisme d'hivern i quines serien les estratègies d'adaptació més adequades. El principal objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar com el canvi climàtic projectat pot afectar la cobertura de neu a les estacions d'esquí alpí del Pirineu i avaluar la vulnerabilitat del sector de l'esquí en aquesta regió. Degut a que la vulnerabilitat de les estacions no és homogenia a tota la regió Pirenaica, la tesi també analitza la capacitat adaptativa dels esquiadors per tal d'avaluar la potencial redistribució entre estacions menys vulnerables i més resilients. A partir d'aquests resultats, s'analitza la ideneïtat i sostenibilitat de les opcions d'adaptació en funció del grau de vulnerabilitat. Primer de tot, s'ha realitzat un primer cas d'estudi centrat en Andorra, per tal de desenvolupar la metodologia i un model preliminar. Finalment s'ha estés l'estudi a la resta del Pirineu afegint-ne l'efecte de l'adaptació dels esquiadors i la possible redistribució resultant entre les estacions amb una atractivitat turística i vulnerabilitat climàtica diferenciada. S'han considerat 4 escenaris diferents. Dos assumint un increment de la temperatura mitjana de +2°C i +4°C respectivament i tenint en compte només condicions de neu natural i dos més incorporant-ne l'efecte de la producció de neu de cultiu pels mateixos increments de temperatura. Els resultats mostren diferents graus de vulnerabilitat de les estacions, permetent-ne la seva classificació en tres grups: (1) estacions altament vulnerables amb fortes reduccions de la cobertura de neu i de la freqüentació per a tots els escenaris, caracteritzades per unes condicions geogràfiques i d'atractivitat turístiques menys favorables; (2) estacions de baixa vulnerabilitat, amb una reducció moderada de la temporada d'esquí en un escenari de major increment de temperatura pero amb poca o nula afectació en un escenari moderat, caracteritzades per una atractivitat mitja i millors condicions per assegurar una major temporada que les estacions més vulnerables; i (3) estacions resilients amb condicions geogràfiques privilegiades i una alta atractivitat turística, amb capacitat d'oferir temporades més llargues i amb millors condicions de neu i per tant amb el potencial d'atraure esquiadors d'aquelles estacions més vulnerables. Tot i que estudis similars projecten una reducció significativa del turisme d'hivern en diverses regions del planeta degut al canvi climàtic, els resultats d'aquesta tesi s'inclinen cap a una futura redefinició del sector com a conseqüència de la redistribució d'esquiadors de les estacions més vulnerables cap a les més resilients.
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International Students Migrations : An analysis of the determinants of localisation and a measure of the economic impacts / Migrations des étudiants en mobilité : une analyse des déterminants de localisation et une mesure des impacts économiquesNoël, Romain 19 May 2014 (has links)
Cette thèse étudie les déterminants des choix de localisation des étudiants en mobilité internationale et des étudiants étrangers. Une analyse globale s’intéresse aux déterminants des migrations estudiantines vers les pays de l’OCDE. En utilisant des méthodes d’estimation présentes dans les travaux sur le commerce international (régressions de Poisson), il apparaît, en plus des déterminants traditionnels liés aux migrations de travailleurs, que la qualité de l’enseignement dans les pays de destinations soit un déterminant fort des migrations estudiantines. Par ailleurs, un effet réseau, par qualification, a été mis en évidence. Une analyse des déterminants appliquée au cas français confirme les résultats de l’étude précédente et met en évidence un effet réseau par âge ainsi qu’une forte sensibilité aux coûts supportés par les étudiants pendant leurs études (prix de l’immobilier…).Cette thèse évalue aussi les impacts macroéconomiques des migrations estudiantines sur l’économie française grâce à un modèle d’équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Accueillir des étudiants internationaux pour les former représente un coût mais ce coût peut être compensé par un accroissement du stock de capital humain de l’économie se traduisant par un taux de croissance du PIB plus important. Néanmoins, l’ampleur des gains dépend de la taille des flux d’étudiants ainsi que de la part des étudiants formés en France qui intègrera le marché du travail français, une fois leurs études accomplies (taux de rétention). Les migrations estudiantines ont aussi un impact sur le financement du régime de retraite français en modifiant le ratio inactifs/actifs. / This thesis investigates the determinants of the localisation of international students and international students. A comprehensive analysis focuses on the determinants of student migration to OECD countries. Using estimation methods present in the literature on international trade (Poisson regressions), it appears, in addition to traditional determinants of migration of workers, that the quality of education in the destination countries is a key determinant of student migrations. Furthermore, a network effect (diaspora effect), by qualification, has been demonstrated. An analysis of determinants applied to the French case confirms the results of the previous study and highlights a network effect by age and a strong sensitivity to the costs borne by students during their studies (rental prices…).This thesis also evaluates the macroeconomic impacts of student migration on the French economy through a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Educating international students represents a cost but this cost may be offset by an increase in the stock of human capital in the economy resulting in a larger growth rate of the GDP. However, the magnitude of gains depends on the size of the students flows and on the share of the students educated in France who will integrate the French labor market, once their studies are completed (retention rate). The students migrations also have an impact on the financing of French retirement system by modifying the inactive/active ratio.
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