In many problems in dynamical systems one is interested in the identification of sets which have qualitatively different fates. The finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) method is a general and equation-free method that identifies codimension-one sets which have a locally high rate of stretching around which maximal exponential expansion of line elements occurs. These codimension-one sets thus act as transport barriers. This geometric framework of transport barriers is used to study various problems in phase space transport, specifically problems of separation in flows that can vary in scale from the micro to the geophysical. The first problem which we study is of the nontrivial motion of inertial particles in a two-dimensional fluid flow. We use the method of FTLE to identify transport barriers that produce segregation of inertial particles by size. The second problem we study is the long range advective transport of plant pathogen spores in the atmosphere. We compute the FTLE field for isobaric atmospheric flow and identify atmospheric transport barriers (ATBs). We find that rapid temporal changes in the spore concentrations at a sampling point occur due to the passage of these ATBs across the sampling point. We also investigate the theory behind the computation of the FTLE and devise a new method to compute the FTLE which does not rely on the tangent linearization. We do this using the 925 matrix of a probability density function. This method of computing the geometric quantities of stretching and FTLE also heuristically bridge the gap between the geometric and probabilistic methods of studying phase space transport. We show this with two examples. / Ph. D.

I contribute to the literature by providing additional factors that could affect the incremental budgeting theory and punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) within a budgetary context. Because of the fluctuation in the price of natural resources, I argue that dependence on natural resources could lead to less stable budgets than ones not dependent on natural resources. I also argue that democracy is another source that leads to stability in the budget, relative to countries that are not democratic. I theorize that countries with no democracy and heavy dependence on natural resources will have budgets with more volatility than the rest of the countries. Most of the extant literature focuses on countries that are democratic and not dependent on natural resources. My theory expects these to have the most stable budgets. I extend the literature by comparing the Kuwaiti National Budget (dependent on natural resources and not democratic) to the U.S. Federal Budget (democratic and not dependent on natural resources). The results of all tests are consistent with the expectations of the theory that countries with no democracy and heavy dependence on natural resources have less incremental budgets than nations that are democratic and not dependent on natural resources.

This thesis investigates the role of ideas in policy processes. It does so using three theories as a starting point, selected for being alike yet unique in their description of how ideas may “get stuck” in the organization’s production and reproduction of policy. The theories are Discourse Coalition Framework, Advocacy Coalition Framework, and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory. These theories have very different emphases but share constructivist traits and an interest in how social processes of meaning making take form in a rather “traditional” organizational setting, thus paying attention to, if not reducing the study to, the institutions of representative democracy. Two theoretical problems are identified within these theories. They concern 1) the mechanism and 2) the object of analysis. The theoretical question addressed in part I is: How are we to understand the proposition that ideas may cause stability in policy processes? What is the underlying mechanism? It is argued that the cognitive mechanism which the theories use should be substituted with a social psychological one. The assumption that stability is created when political actors conform to the ideas of others when they are confronted with apparent unanimity among policy makers, rather than that they internalize these ideas, makes both greater stability and instability in policy processes more plausible. Part II poses the question; if we are to investigate policy stability and instability using the discussed theoretical perspective, what unit of analysis should we use? In other words, what is a policy? It is argued that if ideological stability is seen as an effect of how policy formulation is organized (as is argued in part I), then close attention must be paid to processual factors when it is decided what unit of policy, on what level, might be explained. It is furthermore argued that although we may theoretically form an idea about substantially coherent patterns of policy recognizable as a policy, which should result from stable organizational patterns of communication in the policy process, it remains an empirical question if and where these patterns can actually be found. An analysis of Swedish environmental policy is performed to allow for observations of the degree to which empirical evidence is consistent with the policy patterns predicted by the theoretical assumptions outlined in part one.

This thesis aims at the development of the Czech asylum policy from the year 2000 to the year 2016. Asylum policy is an area that isn't in the center of the public concern for most of the time and only few actors take part in this policy. However, we can say that currently, because of the events such as the refugee crisis, the asylum policy is becoming a very ongoing topic and plays a crucial role in the public discourse. For this and other reason, in this thesis I am researching the development of asylum policy, explanation and description of changes that have happened. The development of asylum policy in the period is analyzed first the terms of practical changes, that are caused by the legislative or important events. This consists of the identification of particular periods, as well as their characteristic features. The analysis is also made in the theoretical perspective: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) and frame theory are used. The PET is suitable for explaining changes in the policy process, that can possibly occur after long periods of stability. Framing is an important feature of the PET. For the purpose of this thesis, framing is also used as a method of analysis of the negotiations in the parliamentary debates that concern the legislative of the asylum policy. The frames that are used...

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This thesis provides an analysis of the Georgia statewide regional water planning process; a system deemed to be operating in the adaptive management framework. The principal focus of this analysis is to detail a novel paradigm capable of dynamic response to changing resource demands which stems from adaptive management principles and ensures representativeness. The paradigm extends directly from application of the theories of bounded rationality and adaptive management. Development of the framework is accomplished through application of theory and correlated empirical analysis. Extreme drought conditions signal a punctuated-equilibrium effecting statewide water resource management which in turn drives the issuance of an executive-level directive to prioritize and effectively manage critical state water resources. This study evolves directly from analysis of the current effort to establish unified regional water plans which address rapid population growth, and escalating water resource conflicts with Alabama and Florida while satisfying priorities established within the executive directive. Fundamental to this analysis is the survey of currently seated regional water planning council members. The essential function of the survey is to provide a qualitative assessment of the perceptions of appointed council members. These perceptions influence water management techniques prescribed by the final policy. While this is a fuzzy correlation, a primary function of this analysis is to quantify the strength of correlation between perceptions and developed policy. This survey details appointed council member attitudes and attributes and affords analysis of future decision making outcomes. The method prescribed herein unifies multi-level decision making processes under a dynamic adaptive management paradigm, and is intended to link the regional water planning processes with continuous annual assessment in order to achieve the pluralistic benefits of adaptive management decision making.

Orientador: Prof. Dr. Salomão Barros Ximenes / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do ABC, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Políticas Públicas, São Bernardo do Campo, 2018. / A presente dissertação visa analisar sob uma perspectiva longitudinal, as políticas públicas educacionais produzidas pela Secretaria da Educação do Estado de São Paulo (SEESP), no período compreendido entre 1996 a 2016. Foi escolhida por ter a maior rede pública de ensino do Brasil e por permanecer sob o comando de um mesmo partido político por mais de duas décadas. O recorte analítico foi definido porque a literatura a respeito demonstra que são escassas as pesquisas de análise simultânea dos ciclos orçamentários e das políticas públicas. Não obstante, as análises das variações na aplicação de recursos orçamentários representam importante fonte de dados para identificar a alteração ou manutenção da execução de distintas políticas públicas. Considerando esse contexto, a pesquisa parte do estudo do orçamento público e das políticas públicas, para evidenciar os momentos que resultaram em modificações atípicas da trajetória das políticas educacionais observadas por meio da execução dos programas governamentais, para compreender o comportamento e os fenômenos que orientam as decisões político-administrativas quanto à definição, priorização e distribuição dos recursos orçamentários para execução das políticas. A principal lente analítica que ancora o trabalho é a metodologia do Equilíbrio Pontuado (Punctuated Equilibrium), de Frank R. Baumgartner e Bryan D. Jones, que permite identificar e entender o processo decisório sobre quais políticas públicas são adotadas e executadas, evidenciando os momentos de mudanças significativas ou incrementais, assim como os fenômenos que influenciam tais processos, uma vez que oferece subsídios para analisar conjuntamente as decisões orçamentais e sobre as políticas públicas, dentro de parâmetros definidos pelos autores, pela utilização de métodos quantitativos e qualitativos que facilitam a compreensão dos dados empíricos inseridos dentro da história e do contexto de execução. Assim, o estudo permitiu verificar a aplicabilidade da Teoria escolhida e concluir que as decisões adotadas no âmbito da SEESP não são constantemente incrementais, a Interrupção do Equilíbrio Pontuado ocorreu em 44% da amostra, preponderantemente em razão de alteração na dotação inicial do orçamento durante o exercício, motivada por decisões do Poder Executivo. E ainda, que não há prevalência do Poder Legislativo nas decisões para construção das políticas públicas educacionais no âmbito estadual. / This dissertation aims to analyze in a longitudinal perspective public educational policies produced by the Education Department of the State of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2016. This area was chosen for having the largest public school system of Brazil and remaining under the command of the same political party for more than two decades. The analytical clipping was defined because the literature about it shows that the simultaneous examination of the research budget cycles and of public policies are scarce. Thus, the analysis of the variations in the application of budgetary resources represent an important source of data to identify changes or maintainance in the execution of distinct public policies. Considering this context, the research comes from the study of the public budget and public policies, to highlight the moments that resulted in atypical changes in the trajectory of educational policies observed through the implementation of Government¿s programs, to understand the behaviors and phenomena that drive the political-administrative decisions regarding the definition, prioritization and allocation of budgetary resources for the implementation of policies. The main analytical lens that anchors the work is the methodology of Punctuated Equilibrium, Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones, that allows to identify and understand the decision-making process under which public policies are adopted and performed, showing the moments of significant or incremental changes, such as the phenomena that influence those processes, since it offers subsidies to jointly analyze budget decisions and public policy, within parameters defined by the authors, using quantitative and qualitative methods that facilitate the understanding of the empirical data inserted into the story and execution context. Thus, the study allowed verify the application of the chosen theory is feasible and conclude that the decisions adopted within the framework of the Education Department of the State of São Paulo are not constantly incremental, the interruption of punctuated equilibrium occurred in 44% of the sample, mainly because of changes in the initial allocation of the budget during the financial year, based on decisions of the Executive Power. And yet, the Legislature has no role in making decisions regarding construction of public educational policies at the State level.

Studien utgår från två fall av gruvetablering, Rönnbäcken och Kallak, vilka har liknande utgångspunkter men resulterat i olika utfall. Respektive länsstyrelse har i de två fallen yttrat sig jakande respektive nekande. Studien är ett fall av myndighetsutövning i två fall av bearbetningskoncession och syftar till att förklara varför olika beslut fattats i fallen Rönnbäcken och Kallak. Det teoretiska ramverket utgår från Punctuated Equilibrium theory vilket belyser fyra faktorer av vikt för beslut, yttranden och processen i sig i de två fallen. Utgångspunkten är teoriprövande där det teoretiska ramverket används förklarande i och med de olika utfallen. Studien använder sig av processpårning och analyserar därigenom kvantitet såväl som innehåll och tendenser i bland annat artiklar, protokoll, lagar och yttranden.   Studien utgör ett bidrag till existerande forskningslitteratur inom området gruvnäring och stärker i och med slutsatser, förklaringspotentialen hos Punctuated equilibrium theory. Ytterligare slutsatser innefattar att det avstyrkande yttrandet och beslutet i fallet Kallak tyder på policyförändringar där fallet Kallak mycket väl kan påverka utkomsten i fallet Rönnbäcken. Attention och New participants ses som de viktigaste faktorerna i initiering av policyförändring.

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