In this thesis we examine methods for evaluating a traffic alarm system. Nuisance alarms can quickly increase the volume of alarms experienced by the alarm operator and obstruct their work. We propose two methods for removing a number of these nuisance alarms, so that events of higher priority can be targeted. A parallel correlation analysis demonstrated significant correlation between single and clusters of alarms, presenting a strong cause for causality. While a serial correlation was performed, it could not conclude evidence of consequential alarms. In order to assist Trafikverket with maintenance scheduling, a long short-term model (LSTM) model, to predict univariate time-series of discretely binned alarm sequences. Experiments conclude that the LSTM model provides higher precision for alarm sequences with higher repeatability and recurring patterns. For other, randomly occurring alarms, the model performs unsatisfactory. / Den här examensuppsatsen granskar olika metoder för att utvärdera ett larmsystem med inriktning mot trafiksäkerhet. Störande larm kan skapa stora mängder larm som försvårar arbetet för larmoperatörer. Vi föreslår två metoder för att avlägsna störande larm, så att uppmärksamhet kan riktas mot varningar med högre prioritet. En parallell korrelationsanalys som demonstrerade hög korrelation mellan både enskilda och kluster av larm. Detta presenterar ett starkt orsakssamband. En korskorrelation utfördes även, men denna kunde inte fastställa existens av s.k. följdlarm. För att assistera Trafikverket med schemaläggning av underhåll har en long short-term memory (LSTM) modell implementerats för att förutspå univariata tidsserier av diskretiserade larmsekvenser. Utförda experiment sammanfattar att LSTM modellen presterar bättre för larmsekvenser med återkommande mönster. För mera slumpmässigt genererade larmsekvenser, presterar modellen med lägre precision.

Across the animal kingdom, predation is a ubiquitous and omnipresent selective agent for a variety of traits. I aimed to address gaps in our knowledge pertaining to how predation shapes animal behavior. Many species of fish naturally occur in drainages that differ in the density of predators and exhibit obvious population divergence, making them ideal study organisms to investigate predator-driven behavioral evolution. In Chapter 1, I conducted a systematic review of the literature. The purpose of this review was to determine if predation acted as a stronger or weaker selective agent on particular behavioral traits (e.g., foraging, mating, antipredator etc.) across fish. This review showed that predation does not always drive behavior in predictable ways, and that some behavioral traits more consistently diverge than others. It was evident that antipredator behaviors are extremely variable but were typically measured in response to a visual stimulus. Investigations on intraspecific variation pertaining to how fish acquire, process, and respond to information across other sensory modalities are needed. To address this, I focused on a Neotropical fish, Brachyrhaphis rhabdophora (Poeciliidae), from Costa Rica that occur in distinct predation environments. For Chapter 2, I evaluated whether males and females exhibit differential responses to conspecific chemical alarm cues. Chemical alarm cues are released when a prey is injured by a predator and are an honest indicator of risk. It was clear that B. rhabdophora responded to alarm cues, but that males and females sometimes employed different antipredator strategies depending on what predation environment they were from. However, we know that in group-living species, such as B. rhabdophora, risk information can also be acquired indirectly through social cues. There are tradeoffs associated with relying on direct vs. indirect information, and these sources of information may sometimes conflict. For Chapter 3 I considered how B. rhabdophora integrates conflicting information to elicit antipredator behavior. I again exposed fish directly to chemical alarm cues and measured how their antipredator responses changed when visually observing conflicting or reinforcing social information. I found that individuals integrated personal and social information differently based on their evolutionary history with predators. Further, we found evidence that even a single observer fish is able to influence group behavior. Finally, for Chapter 4, I evaluated sex-specific variation in brain size across predation environments. According to the "expensive-tissue hypothesis" there should only be investment in brain tissue when there is sufficient selection for enhanced cognitive abilities. Prey under elevated selection from predators should invest more in cognitive traits to enhance survival, but how sex interplays with this effect is unclear. I found that females had higher relative total brain volumes than males, but males exhibited more variation across predation environments in the relative volumes for certain brain regions. This work as a whole suggests that, yes, evolutionary history matters for a variety of sensory-related traits in B. rhabdophora.

No description available.

Under flertalet år har såväl alarmeringscentralen som ambulanssjukvården observerat en ökning av inkommande anrop från hjälpsökande till alarmeringscentralerna som genererar ambulansuppdrag. Det medför en trend med höga antal prioritet 1-uppdrag som kan leda till brist på ambulansresurser. Efter ambulanssjuksköterskans bedömning inger flera ambulansuppdrag inget behov av ambulanssjukvård. Därtill ökar riskerna för allvarlig vårdskada för livshotande sjuka och skadade patienter. Sedan början av 2000-talet har allt fler regioner, som sluter avtal med SOS Alarm för att bedöma och prioritera vårdärenden, börjat ställa krav om tillgång till legitimerad sjuksköterskekompetens för att öka kvaliteten på larmbehandlingen. Huruvida legitimerad sjuksköterskekompetens innebär gynnsam effekt för larmkedjan och patientsäkerheten är dock omdebatterad med begränsad forskning som inte är enig om slutsatserna. Syftet är att identifiera skillnader i hänvisningsgrad och prioriteringar mellan internutbildade respektive sjuksköterskeutbildade larmoperatörer vid alarmeringscentraler. Data från regionerna Sörmland och Halland analyserades i en deskriptiv retrospektiv kvantitativ studie där 2393 respektive 1542 ambulansärenden erhölls från regionerna. I Hallands län, som ingår avtal med SOS Alarm, där majoriteten av larmoperatörerna ej innehar sjuksköterskelegitimation, bedömdes 59,4 % av vårdärendena som prioritet 1-uppdrag i kontrast mot Sörmlands län där larmoperatörer, på Sjukvårdens alarmeringscentral innehar sjuksköterskelegitimation, bedömde 35,6 % som prioritet 1- uppdrag. Den högre andelen prioritet 1-uppdrag speglades inte i att ambulansen bedömde fler patienter som kritiskt sjuka. Ingen snedfördelning mellan de båda regionerna gällande ambulanssjuksköterskans bedömning av patienter observerades, vilket varken kan påvisa överprioritering i den icke sjuksköterskeutbildades bedömning eller gynnsamheten av legitimerad sjuksköterskekompetens som larmoperatör. Således är vidare forskning som beaktar hela ärendeprocessen väsentlig.

<p>I studied acoustic and visual communication in the Smooth-billed Ani, a joint-nesting, cooperatively breeding cuckoo. I describe vocal repertoire of this species using both qualitative and quantitative methods. In this first, formal description of the species’ repertoire, I provide verbal descriptions of each call type, the contexts in which each call is produced, spectrograms, and acoustic measurements for each call type. I used multivariate statistics to show that call types can be correctly classified based on acoustic measurements alone. Smooth-billed Anis are capable of complex communication, including the use of functionally referential alarms and signals of aggression that reliably predict attack. Functionally referential signals are produced in response to a specific set of stimuli and elicit predictable, appropriate responses in signal receivers, even in the absence of any other cues. I show that anis produce two distinct signal types, <em>chlurps</em> and <em>ahnee</em> <em>alarms</em>, in response to two different predator classes, aerial and terrestrial, respectively. I also show that receiver responses to playback of these alarm signals are distinct and appropriate to evade predation from aerial and terrestrial attackers. Aggressive signals should increase in aggressive contexts, predict subsequent aggression and elicit responses from signal receivers. I show that <em>hoots</em>, an acoustic signal, and throat inflation, a visual signal, both increase in aggressive contexts and reliably predict aggressive escalation in the form of direct attacks on a mount. The receiver response to <em>hoots</em> and throat inflation remains to be tested. In the synthesis, I provide suggestions for future research.</p> / Master of Science (MSc)

This study examines three applications of control charts used for monitoring syndromic data with different characteristics. The first part develops a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) based surveillance chart, and compares it with the CDC Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) W2c method using both authentic and simulated data. After successfully removing the long-term trend and the seasonality involved in syndromic data, the performance of the SARIMA approach is shown to be better than the performance of the EARS method in terms of two key surveillance characteristics, the false alarm rate and the average time to detect the outbreaks. In the second part, we propose a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) control chart to detect a wide range of shifts in the mean of Poisson distributed biosurveillance data. The application of a sign function on the original GLR chart statistics leads to downward-sided, upward-sided, and two-sided GLR chart statistics in an unified framework. To facilitate the use of such charts in practice, we provide detailed guidance on developing and implementing the GLR chart. Under the steady-state framework, this study indicates that the overall GLR chart performance in detecting a range of shifts of interest is superior to the performance of traditional control charts including the EARS method, Shewhart charts, EWMA charts, and CUSUM charts. There is often an excessive number of zeros involved in health care related data. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models are more appropriate than Poisson models to describe such data. The last part of the dissertation considers the GLR chart for ZIP data under a research framework similar to the second part. Because small sample sizes may influence the estimation of ZIP parameters, the efficiency of MLEs is investigated in depth, followed by suggestions for improvement. Numerical approaches to solving for the MLEs are discussed as well. Statistics for a set of GLR charts are derived, followed by modifications changing them from two-sided statistics to one-sided statistics. Although not a complete study of GLR charts for ZIP processes, due to limited time and resources, suggestions for future work are proposed at the end of this dissertation. / Ph. D.

The risk-adjusted Bernoulli cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart developed by Steiner et al. (2000) is an increasingly popular tool for monitoring clinical and surgical performance. In practice, however, use of a fixed control limit for the chart leads to quite variable in-control average run length (ARL) performance for patient populations with different risk score distributions. To overcome this problem, the simulation-based dynamic probability control limits (DPCLs) patient-by-patient for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts is determined in this study. By maintaining the probability of a false alarm at a constant level conditional on no false alarm for previous observations, the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts with DPCLs have consistent in-control performance at the desired level with approximately geometrically distributed run lengths. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method does not rely on any information or assumptions about the patients' risk distributions. The use of DPCLs for risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM charts allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding particular sequence of patients for a surgeon or hospital. The effect of estimation error on performance of risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart with DPCLs is also examined. Our simulation results show that the in-control performance of risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart with DPCLs is affected by the estimation error. The most influential factors are the specified desired in-control average run length, the Phase I sample size and the overall adverse event rate. However, the effect of estimation error is uniformly smaller for the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart with DPCLs than for the corresponding chart with a constant control limit under various realistic scenarios. In addition, there is a substantial reduction in the standard deviation of the in-control run length when DPCLs are used. Therefore, use of DPCLs has yet another advantage when designing a risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart. These researches are results of joint work with Dr. William H. Woodall (Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech). Moreover, DPCLs are adapted to design the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses developed by Tang et al. (2015). It is shown that the in-control performance of the charts with DPCLs can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the risk-adjusted CUSUM chart for multiresponses with DPCLs is more practical and should be applied to effectively monitor surgical performance by hospitals and healthcare practitioners. This research is a result of joint work with Dr. William H. Woodall (Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech) and Mr. Justin Loda (Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech). / Ph. D.

Chemical senses play a critical role in predator-prey and social interactions of many animals. Predators often evoke adaptive escape responses by prey, one of which is the release of chemicals that induce adaptive avoidance behaviors from both predators and conspecifics. I explore the use of chemicals in predator-prey and social interactions, using a crustacean model system, the spiny lobster. As predators, spiny lobsters are opportunistic, polyphagous feeders, and they rely heavily on their chemical senses during feeding. Some of their potential prey deter attacks through chemical defenses that act through the spiny lobsters’ chemical senses. An example of this is sea hares, Aplysia californica, which secrete an ink when vigorously attacked by sympatric spiny lobsters, Panulirus interruptus. I show that that this ink defends sea hares from spiny lobsters through several mechanisms that include phagomimicry, sensory disruption, and deterrence, and that the ink’s efficacy is enhanced by its naturally high acidity. As prey, spiny lobsters rely heavily on their chemical senses to assess risk from predators. One way to assess risk of predation is through ‘alarm cues’, which are injury-related chemicals. I show that injured Caribbean spiny lobsters, Panulirus argus, release alarm cues in their hemolymph, and that nearby conspecifics detect these cues using olfaction. Hemolymph from conspecifics induces primarily alarm behavior in the form of retreat, sheltering, and suppression of appetitive responses. In contrast, hemolymph from heterospecifics, depending on phylogenetic relatedness, induces either mixed alarm and appetitive behaviors or primarily appetitive behaviors. Spiny lobsters also use chemical cues to assess risk during social interactions with conspecific. I show that spiny lobsters use urine-borne chemical signals and agonistic behaviors to communicate social status and that these chemical signals are detected exclusively by the olfactory pathway. Dominant animals increase urine release during social interactions, whereas subordinates do not. Experimental prevention of urine release during interactions causes an increase in agonism, but this increase is abolished when urine of dominants is reintroduced. My findings lay the foundation for neuroethological studies of risk-assessment systems mediated by intraspecific chemical cues.

Major accidents in the process industries occurred mostly as an outcome of multiple failures in different safety barriers and their interrelation with unsafe acts by frontline operators. This has become the reason why safety analyses in terms of plant technical aspects cannot be performed independently from analysing human response to the changing technology. Unsafe acts and errors by operators must be seen as a symptom of system insufficiencies and underlying problems, rather than as the cause of an accident. With this paradigm, the need to optimally configure the system and the whole working condition to understand human’s limitation and requirements becomes very evident. It is too naive to desire that human operators make zero error by asking them to change their behaviour and to perfectly adapt to the system. Human Factors (HF) attempts to cope with the need to understand the interrelation between human operators, the technology they are working with and the management system, with the aim to increase safety and efficiency. In achieving this goal, HF must be incorporated into the whole plant lifecycle, from the earliest design stage to plant operation and modifications. Moreover, HF analysis must comprise all kinds of operators’ activities and responsibilities in operating process plants, which can include manual works in field and supervisory control conducted remotely from a control centre/room. This work has developed techniques that provide systematic way to incorporate HF into process plant lifecycle. The new HF analysis technique, PITOPA-Design, in a combination with the classic PITOPA, is applicable for an implementation during design and operation of a plant. With the awareness that safety analysis and HF cannot be performed separately, an interconnection with HAZOPs is made possible by means of this new technique. Moreover, to provide a systematic analysis of operators’ work in control room, an additional technique, the PITOPA-CR was also developed. This HF technique can as well be integrated into a general HF analysis both during design phase and plant operation. In addition to it, results coming from PITOPA-CR will provide information required to optimally configure control and alarm system, as well as the whole alarm management system to better understand the limitation and requirements of control room operators. The structure of the development can be described as follows: i) Development of HAZOPA (the Hazards and Operator Actions Analysis), which provides the interconnection between HF analysis and HAZOPs, ii) Development of PITOPA-Design, a technique to incorporate HF consideration into design phase, which is differentiated into 3 stages to comprise the conceptual design, the basic engineering and the detail engineering phase, iii) Development of PITOPA-CR, a technique for HF analysis in control room, iv) Integration of PITOPA-CR into alarm management system, development of a technique for alarm prioritization. / Schwere Unfälle in der Prozessindustrie erfolgen meist aus einem Zusammenspiel mehrerer verschiedener Fehler und der gleichzeitigen Wechselwirkung mit falschem menschlichem Handeln. Dabei sind diese Fehlhandlungen nicht als Unfallursache anzusehen, sondern sie resultieren aus Fehlern, die in dem System selbst zu finden sind. Aus diesem Grund kann bei der Sicherheitsanalyse die technische Analyse nicht unabhängig von der Betrachtung des Human Factors (HF) durchgeführt werden. Um eine Reduzierung der Fehlhandlungen zu erreichen, müssen das Anlagendesign, die Bedienbarkeit und die Arbeitsumgebung an die menschlichen Fähigkeiten angepasst werden. Human Factors (HF) betrachtet die Interaktion zwischen menschlichen, technischen und organisatorischen Aspekten einer Anlage, mit dem Ziel die Sicherheit und Effektivität der Anlage zu optimieren. Dafür ist eine Einbindung von HF in den gesamten Lebenszyklus einer Anlage notwendig. So müssen HF- Analysen nicht nur während des Betriebs einer Anlage und bei Prozessmodifikationen durchgeführt werden, sondern auch während des gesamten Design- Prozesses, da gerade in den frühen Design-Phasen das Optimierungspotential besonders hoch ist. Eine solche Analysemethode muss alle Aufgaben eines Operators erfassen, so dass zwischen manueller Arbeit und der Arbeit in der Leitwarte unterschieden werden muss. In dieser Arbeit wurden Analysentechniken entwickelt, die einen systematischen Ansatz zur Berücksichtigung des HF über den gesamten Lebenszyklus einer verfahrenstechnischen Anlage darstellen. Mit Hilfe der neuen Analysemethode, PITOPA-Design, können Untersuchungen sowohl während der Designphase als auch während des Betriebs einer Anlage durchgeführt werden. Da solche HF-Analyse immer in Verbindung mit einer klassischen Sicherheitsanalyse erfolgen muss, bindet die neue Methode die HAZOP-Analyse direkt ein. Darüber hinaus wurde ein weiterer Ansatz für die Analyse von Operatorhandlungen in einer Messwartenarbeit entwickelt. Diese neue Analysentechnik, PITOPA-CR, bildet die Grundlage für Verbesserungen im Alarmsystem und wird in das Alarmmanagementsystem eingebunden. Die Arbeit ist wie folgt strukturiert: i) Entwicklung von HAZOPA (the Hazards and Operator Actions Analysis). Diese Methode stellt die Einbindung der HF-Analyse in HAZOP dar. ii) Entwicklung von PITOPA-Design, zur HF-Analyse während des gesamten Designprozesses einer verfahrenstechnischen Anlage. Die Methode wurde in 3 Teile eingeteilt, um die drei Designsphasen Conceptual-, Basic-, und Detail-Design zu erfassen. iii) Entwicklung von PITOPA-CR, zur HF-Analyse in der Messwarte. iv) Einbindung von PITOPA-CR in das Alarmmanagementsystem und Entwicklung einer Technik zur Alarmpriorisierung.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:56:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DaniloCS_DISSERT.pdf: 3897603 bytes, checksum: cd98fa05a1dee36b5186c50e95b2f03b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-01 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / Operating industrial processes is becoming more complex each day, and one of the factors that contribute to this growth in complexity is the integration of new technologies and smart solutions employed in the industry, such as the decision support systems. In this regard, this dissertation aims to develop a decision support system based on an computational tool called expert system. The main goal is to turn operation more reliable and secure while maximizing the amount of relevant information to each situation by using an expert system based on rules designed for a particular area of expertise. For the modeling of such rules has been proposed a high-level environment, which allows the creation and manipulation of rules in an easier way through visual programming. Despite its wide range of possible applications, this dissertation focuses only in the context of real-time filtering of alarms during the operation, properly validated in a case study based on a real scenario occurred in an industrial plant of an oil and gas refinery / A opera??o de processos industriais vem se tornando mais complexa ao longo dos anos, e um dos elementos que possibilitam este aumento de complexidade ? a integra??o de novas tecnologias e solu??es inteligentes empregadas no setor, como ? o caso dos sistemas de apoio ? decis?o. Neste sentido, esta disserta??o visa o desenvolvimento de um sistema de aux?lio ? opera??o baseado em uma ferramenta computacional chamada de sistema especialista. O objetivo principal ? tornar a opera??o mais confi?vel e segura ao maximizar a quantidade de informa??es relevantes a cada situa??o atrav?s da utiliza??o de um sistema especialista baseado em regras pr?-moldadas para uma determinada ?rea de conhecimento. Para a modelagem de tais regras foi proposto um ambiente de alto-n?vel, que permite a cria??o e manipula??o de regras de forma facilitada atrav?s de programa??o visual. A despeito de sua ampla gama de poss?veis aplica??es, esta disserta??o tem como foco o contexto de filtragem em tempo real de alarmes durante a opera??o, devidamente validada em um estudo de caso baseado em um cen?rio real ocorrido em uma planta industrial de uma refinaria de petr?leo e g?s