Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-09T12:28:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2014-11-10Bitstream added on 2015-04-09T12:47:32Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000814919.pdf: 1106420 bytes, checksum: 6bbc007e3e1451a2648cbfdb3aeef795 (MD5) / The insurer that has an effective control of the risks involved by the insureds can avoid issues such as bankruptcy and loss of profitability. The purpose of the research was to identify the varieties that define the risk associated with future buyers, enabling classify them into one of two groups, the claimed and the unclaimed, based in probabilities defined by a multivariate model. Therefore, were questions considered (variables) existing on the risk evaluation of the insurers questionnaire and others nominated by the expert brokers of the insurers. To achieve the objective, was used in the analyses, the multivariate statistical technique, known as Discriminant Analysis, in order to segregate the individual into one of two groups. A discriminant function was constructed from the independent variables, associated to the risks, and from the dependent variable, which covers the two groups. Other results as estimation of the classification rule, evaluation of the quality of the discrimination rule settings, estimation of the overall probability of correct answers and tests related to the assumptions of discriminant analysis were presented. The studied sample was consisted of 2,000 insured served by the broker, divided into two groups: the first composed of individuals without claims; and the second with those who has one or more claims. The model enabled to classify individuals by the two groups, wherein in the development sample and test the classification represented 69% accuracy. The separation was carried out by variables with higher importance degrees. Where elected: car power, time of insurance, bonus, parking lot use, and professional activities defined by the insured occupation. Such variables can be considered highly discriminating, based on the contribution coefficient for the discrimination. This work has presented results that contradict the common sense in the insurance market, in which technicians say that sex and age determine whether / The insurer that has an effective control of the risks involved by the insureds can avoid issues such as bankruptcy and loss of profitability. The purpose of the research was to identify the varieties that define the risk assciated with future buyers, enabling classify them into one two groups, the claimed and the unclaimed, based in probabilities defined by a multivariate model. Therefore, were questions considered (variables) existing on the risk evaluation of the insurers questionnarie and others nominated by the expert brokers of the insurers. To achieve the objective, was used in the analysis, the multivariate statistical technique, known as Discriminant Analylsis, in order to segregate the individual into one of two groups. A discriminant function was constructed from the independent variables, associated to the risks, and the dependent variable, which covers the two groups. Other results as estimation of the classification rule, evaluation of the quality of the discrimination rule settings, estimation of the overall probability of correct answers and tests related to the assumptions of discrimination analysis were presented. The studied sample was consisted of 2,000 insured served by the broker, divided into two groups: the first composed of individuals without claims; and the second with those who has one or more claims. The model enabled to classify individuals by the two groups, wherein in the development sample and test the classification represented 69% accuracy. The separation was carried out by variables with higher importance degrees. Were elected: car power, time of insurance, bonus, parking lot use, and professional activities defined by the insured occupation. Such variables can be considered hihgly discriminating, based on the contribution coefficient for the discrimination. This work has presented results that contradict the common sense in the insurance market, in which technicians say that sex and age determine...

Orientador: Fernando Augusto Silva Marins / Banca: Maurício César Delamaro / Banca: Dagoberto Alves de Almeida / Banca: Gilson Brito Alves Lima / Banca: Osvaldo Luis Gonçalves Quelhas / Resumo: Observam-se, nos dias atuais, nas indústrias brasileiras, a ocorrência de inúmeros problemas que afetam direta e indiretamente seus processos produtivos e que, na maioria das vezes, são desenvolvidas ações corretivas ao invés de ações preventivas. Apesar da Gestão de Riscos utilizar ferramentas, técnicas e abordagens para identificação, análise e avaliação de riscos, para que muitos dos riscos mapeados não se tornem problema, constatou-se na literatura específica, a quase completa ausência de abordagens que tratem dos riscos quando esses se concretizam na manufatura, tornando-se, portanto, problemas. Assim, para se atuar na mitigação dos riscos, recomenda-se a inserção da flexibilidade de manufatura como a última etapa do Gerenciamento de Riscos na manufatura. Entretanto, a característica multidimensional da flexibilidade de manufatura dificulta essa tarefa, no sentido de adequar o grau de flexibilidade frente às variáveis existentes. Assim, o problema está na escolha correta das diferentes dimensões de flexibilidade, ou seja, quanto se investir para ser flexível, uma vez que existem inúmeros tipos de flexibilidade. Por meio de uma investigação empírica na manufatura de oito indústrias, utilizando-se o método hipotético dedutivo, aqui se desenvolveu uma ferramenta, chamada de Matriz de Decisão sobre Flexibilidades, para auxílio à tomada de decisão sobre qual tipo de flexibilidade de manufatura deve-se escolher para a solução de diferentes tipos de problemas que ocorrem na manufatura, em distintos segmentos industriais. Como resultados adicionais, a pesquisa empírica em oito empresas forneceu informações sobre quais são os problemas críticos para cinco segmentos industriais pesquisados; sugeriu novos usos de alguns tipos de flexibilidade de manufatura, e ofereceu informações úteis para a disseminação de conhecimento sobre flexibilidade. / Abstract: It is observed, nowadays, in the Brazilian industries, the occurrence of several problems that affect directly and indirectly their productive processes and that, most of the time, are only developed corrective actions instead of preventive ones. Although Risks Management to use tools, techniques and approaches for identification, analysis and evaluation of risks, in order to many of these mapped risks do not become problems, was evidenced in specific consulted literature, the absence of approaches that deal with the risks just when they appear, becoming, therefore, problems. Thus, to mitigate risks, insertion of the manufacturing flexibility as the last stage of Risks Management it is recommended. However, the multidimensional characteristic of the manufacture flexibility makes difficult the task to adjust the degree of flexibility in function of existing variable. Thus, the great problem is to do the correct choice from the flexibility dimensions set, usually presenting several options, that is, to choice how much to invest to be flexible. Here was developed a tool, named Flexibility Decision Matrix, for decision-making about which kind of manufacture flexibility must be chosen for the solution of manufacturing problems, in distinct industrial branches. As additional results, an empirical research in eight companies gave information on which are the worse problems for five industrial segments; suggested new utilization of some types of manufacture flexibility, and offered highlights to collaborate to flexibility knowledge dissemination. / Doutor

Orientador: Manoel Henrique Salgado / Banca: Gladys Dorotea Cacsire Barriga / Banca: João Pedro Albino / Resumo: The insurer that has an effective control of the risks involved by the insureds can avoid issues such as bankruptcy and loss of profitability. The purpose of the research was to identify the varieties that define the risk associated with future buyers, enabling classify them into one of two groups, the claimed and the unclaimed, based in probabilities defined by a multivariate model. Therefore, were questions considered (variables) existing on the risk evaluation of the insurers questionnaire and others nominated by the expert brokers of the insurers. To achieve the objective, was used in the analyses, the multivariate statistical technique, known as Discriminant Analysis, in order to segregate the individual into one of two groups. A discriminant function was constructed from the independent variables, associated to the risks, and from the dependent variable, which covers the two groups. Other results as estimation of the classification rule, evaluation of the quality of the discrimination rule settings, estimation of the overall probability of correct answers and tests related to the assumptions of discriminant analysis were presented. The studied sample was consisted of 2,000 insured served by the broker, divided into two groups: the first composed of individuals without claims; and the second with those who has one or more claims. The model enabled to classify individuals by the two groups, wherein in the development sample and test the classification represented 69% accuracy. The separation was carried out by variables with higher importance degrees. Where elected: car power, time of insurance, bonus, parking lot use, and professional activities defined by the insured occupation. Such variables can be considered highly discriminating, based on the contribution coefficient for the discrimination. This work has presented results that contradict the common sense in the insurance market, in which technicians say that sex and age determine whether / Abstract: The insurer that has an effective control of the risks involved by the insureds can avoid issues such as bankruptcy and loss of profitability. The purpose of the research was to identify the varieties that define the risk assciated with future buyers, enabling classify them into one two groups, the claimed and the unclaimed, based in probabilities defined by a multivariate model. Therefore, were questions considered (variables) existing on the risk evaluation of the insurers questionnarie and others nominated by the expert brokers of the insurers. To achieve the objective, was used in the analysis, the multivariate statistical technique, known as Discriminant Analylsis, in order to segregate the individual into one of two groups. A discriminant function was constructed from the independent variables, associated to the risks, and the dependent variable, which covers the two groups. Other results as estimation of the classification rule, evaluation of the quality of the discrimination rule settings, estimation of the overall probability of correct answers and tests related to the assumptions of discrimination analysis were presented. The studied sample was consisted of 2,000 insured served by the broker, divided into two groups: the first composed of individuals without claims; and the second with those who has one or more claims. The model enabled to classify individuals by the two groups, wherein in the development sample and test the classification represented 69% accuracy. The separation was carried out by variables with higher importance degrees. Were elected: car power, time of insurance, bonus, parking lot use, and professional activities defined by the insured occupation. Such variables can be considered hihgly discriminating, based on the contribution coefficient for the discrimination. This work has presented results that contradict the common sense in the insurance market, in which technicians say that sex and age determine... / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-07T18:43:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 000379478-Texto+Completo-0.pdf: 2789278 bytes, checksum: ea186da0649e91aa67f3396f968b5cdb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / The fast-paced rhythm of changes and the search for better results has made the world more and more concerned about Software Project Management. However, unexpected problems can generate a great impact on this process, such as cost excess, schedule delay, problems related to the quality of the project and the lack of functionality. The present work was based on a research carried out to identify and quantify the main risk factors in Software Projects for Information Systems, along with the project managers related to companies in the Information Technology (IT) area, on a national level. Such study aimed to determine the proper dimension of these factors, allowing the possible inherent risks to the project execution to receive proper care. Along with this study, a research has been made for some processes of Software Projects Risk Management (SPRM) in literature, aiming to get a theoretical base for a deepened focus on this subject. As a result of this research, we observed the inexistence of a SPRM process that focused on a specific project dimension. That is, none of the studied processes considered prioritizing and defining specific techniques or strategies for a determined dimension of the project (such as cost, schedule and quality) in behalf of its importance. In order to fill these gaps a SPRM process, called No-Risk, was developed. It is applied to the cost, schedule and quality dimensions of the projects. It was developed to be integrated with a software development process, focused on information systems. The proposition of this process has as a basic premise to evaluate and analyze possible risks, based on the risk factors previously scanned. To evaluate this proposition, the process was applied to an information system Software Project of an IT focused company. / O ritmo acelerado de mudanças e a busca de melhores resultados fizeram com que o mundo ficasse cada vez mais preocupado com gerência de projetos de software. Entretanto, problemas imprevistos podem gerar um grande impacto neste processo, tais como excesso de custo, atraso de cronograma, problemas relacionados à qualidade e a falta de funcionalidade. Neste trabalho foi realizada uma pesquisa visando identificar e quantificar os principais fatores de risco em projetos de software para sistemas de informação junto a gerentes de projeto vinculados a empresas da área de Tecnologia da Informação (TI) em nível nacional. Tal estudo teve como objetivo determinar um correto dimensionamento destes fatores, permitindo um melhor tratamento dos possíveis riscos inerentes à execução do projeto. Juntamente com este estudo, foram pesquisados alguns processos de gerência de risco de projetos de software (GRPS) na literatura, visando obter uma base para um foco mais aprofundado sobre este tema. Como resultado desta pesquisa observou-se a inexistência de um processo de GRPS que focasse uma dimensão de projeto específica, ou seja, nenhum dos processos estudados se preocupou em priorizar e definir técnicas ou estratégias específicas para uma determinada dimensão de projeto (custo, prazo e qualidade) em função da sua importância. Buscando preencher estas lacunas, desenvolveu-se um processo de GPRS, denominado No-Risk, aplicado às dimensões de custo, prazo e qualidade de projetos, desenvolvido para integração com um processo de desenvolvimento de software focado em sistemas de informação. A proposta deste processo apresenta como premissa básica a análise de riscos baseada em fatores de risco previamente mapeados. O processo foi aplicado por um gerente de projetos em um projeto de software de sistemas de informação de uma empresa com foco em TI. Para avaliação da proposta, o processo foi aplicado em um projeto de software de sistemas de informação de uma empresa com foco em TI.

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geotecnia, 2014. / Submitted by Ana Cristina Barbosa da Silva (annabds@hotmail.com) on 2015-03-03T19:37:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_ErichWolff.pdf: 3309758 bytes, checksum: 836a80ac147ea8ff886bcdafc5097c34 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Raquel Viana(raquelviana@bce.unb.br) on 2015-03-12T18:45:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_ErichWolff.pdf: 3309758 bytes, checksum: 836a80ac147ea8ff886bcdafc5097c34 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-12T18:45:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2014_ErichWolff.pdf: 3309758 bytes, checksum: 836a80ac147ea8ff886bcdafc5097c34 (MD5) / O estudo consiste na busca e utilização de um método que permita o gerenciamento de riscos no caso específico de ocorrências cujos condicionantes são de natureza fundamentalmente geotécnica em infraestruturas portuárias. A proposta utiliza um método de gerenciamento baseado nos princípios aceitos internacionalmente apresentados pela ISO 31000 (2009) para fins de tomada de decisões e controle ou mitigação de riscos. Para tanto, são abordados os condicionantes do sistema portuário brasileiro relevantes para o estudo, as especificidades geotécnicas de áreas costeiras e em margens de rios, além da fundamentação teórica sobre risco e gerenciamento. Em segundo momento, o modelo de gerenciamento de risco é aplicado a uma situação baseada em uma ocorrência real, ocorrida no terminal privado de Chibatão, em Manaus, com o propósito de servir como exemplo de utilização da ferramenta. São levantados e debatidos fatores do contexto portuário e geotécnico envolvidos que tenham influência no gerenciamento de riscos, ao passo que são feitas as conclusões, sugestões para futuros aprofundamentos e considerações finais sobre a aplicação do método. _______________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT / This study consists in searching and using a method that can be applied for risk management in case of damaging geotechnical occurrences in port infrastructures. The process uses a management method based on the internationally accepted principles presented by ISO 31000 (2009), used for decision-making and risk control and mitigation. Therefore, the relevant information about the Brazilian port system is discussed and geotechnical elements in coastal areas and river banks are analyzed, in addition to the theory related to risk and management. Then, the risk management model is applied to a situation based in a real occurrence, the landslide at TUP Chibatão, in order to serve as an example of the possibilities of using this tool. Aspects of ports and the geotechnical context involved in risk management are discussed while conclusions are made, and suggestions for future studies on the application of the method are presented.

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronegócios, 2012. / Submitted by Elna Araújo (elna@bce.unb.br) on 2012-07-13T20:30:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_MarlosSchuckVicenzi.pdf: 4543462 bytes, checksum: 0e4a0f10f2dc5faade80badd3727dd80 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jaqueline Ferreira de Souza(jaquefs.braz@gmail.com) on 2012-07-18T11:57:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_MarlosSchuckVicenzi.pdf: 4543462 bytes, checksum: 0e4a0f10f2dc5faade80badd3727dd80 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-07-18T11:57:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_MarlosSchuckVicenzi.pdf: 4543462 bytes, checksum: 0e4a0f10f2dc5faade80badd3727dd80 (MD5) / A intensificação das atividades econômicas e a evolução tecnológica vivenciada pela sociedade moderna alteraram a forma como os riscos são tratados, imprimindo novos desafios a todos os envolvidos nas cadeias produtivas de alimentos e bebidas. Neste contexto, surge a tendência de uma regulamentação mais restritiva na busca pelo aumento da segurança e qualidade dos alimentos e bebidas, que acaba por impactar negativamente a atividade produtiva e de comércio internacional. Muitas vezes a regulamentação mais restritiva é utilizada como barreira não tarifária para dificultar o comércio internacional, por isso o Acordo SPS estabeleceu a necessidade da utilização de critérios científicos na tomada de decisão. A aplicação da metodologia da análise de risco em segurança de alimentos (MARSA) foi concebida para auxiliar a tomada de decisão (gerenciamento de risco) concernente à segurança de alimentos tendo em vista a utilização dos critérios científicos (avaliação de risco) e participação social dos envolvidos nesta decisão (comunicação de risco). Desta forma as decisões tomadas seriam as mais adequadas tendo em vista o dilema da maximização da segurança e qualidade do alimento e minimização do impacto econômico. O Brasil vive uma situação onde a conformação do ambiente institucional de regulamentação técnica do agronegócio de bebidas é definida pelas decisões de dois gerenciadores de risco principais, a ANVISA e o MAPA. Entretanto, estes possuem capacidade de coordenação limitada e não estão aplicando a MARSA em sua plenitude. Diante disto, o objetivo é captar as percepções dos atores envolvidos na cadeia do agronegócio de bebidas, de modo a elencar e discutir as principais dificuldades e desafios relacionados ao gerenciamento de risco. As percepções dos atores foram obtidas através de três perguntas abertas, cujas respostas foram analisadas pelo software ALCESTE. Os resultados obtidos foram analisados sob o prisma da Nova Economia Institucional (NEI), da MARSA e complementarmente pela Sociologia do Risco. Concluiu-se que: (1) A fragmentação no modelo organizacional das atividades de gerenciamento de risco gera ineficiências alocativas e restringe a coordenação das atividades dos diversos órgãos; (2) A interação do governo com o setor produtivo superou a fase de excessiva intervenção, permitindo que fosse claramente estabelecida a responsabilidade dos fornecedores sobre a segurança e qualidade de seus produtos. Neste cenário o governo deve criar um ambiente institucional adequado, para que o setor produtivo possa atingir os objetivos de segurança e qualidade. A interação do governo com os consumidores ainda é deficiente, impedindo a criação de uma importante relação de confiança; e (3) O atendimento das regras de segurança e qualidade pelo setor produtivo, principalmente pequenas empresas, é obstado pela escassez de mão-de-obra técnica e também pela dificuldade para entender todas as regras vigentes. O segundo obstáculo é agravado pela fragmentação do modelo discutida anteriormente. Por isso é importante o envolvimento de órgãos de fomento e extensão que podem servir como uma ponte de informações entre os gerenciadores e as pequenas empresas. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT / The intensification of economic activities and technological change experienced by the modern society changed the way risks are handled and imposed new challenges to all involved in the food and beverage production chains. In this context there is a tendency for more restrictive regulation in the pursuit of improved safety and quality of food and beverages, which in turn has negative impact on productive activity and international trade. Usually, more restrictive regulation is used as non-tariff barrier to hinder international trade, so the SPS Agreement established the use of scientific criteria in decision making. The utilization of the methodology of risk analysis in food safety is designed to assist decision-making (risk management) concerning the safety of food, by means of utilization of scientific criteria (risk assessment) and social participation of those affected by the decision (risk communication). In this context, decisions made would be most appropriate in view of the dilemma of maximizing the safety and quality of food and minimize the economic impact. Brazil is experiencing a situation where the conformation of the institutional environment of beverage agribusiness is defined by the decisions of two leading risk managers, ANVISA and MAPA. However, they have limited capacity to coordinate and are not applying the full requirements of risk analysis. The aim of this research is to capture the perceptions of actors involved in the beverage agribusiness in order to list and discuss the main difficulties and challenges related to managing risk. The actors' perceptions were obtained through three open questions, whose answers were analyzed by software ALCESTE. The results were analyzed through the lens of New Institutional Economics (NIE), risk analysis methodology and Sociology of Risk. It was concluded that: (1) Fragmentation in the organizational model of risk management activities generates allocative inefficiencies and restricts the coordination of activities of different organisms; (2) The government interaction with the productive sector has undergone a phase of excessive intervention allowing it to be clearly established the responsibility of producers on the safety and quality of its products. In this scenario the government should create an appropriate institutional environment for the productive sector to achieve the objectives of safety and quality. The government interaction with consumers is still deficient, preventing the creation of an important trust relation; and (3) The compliance of the rules of safety and quality by the productive sector, especially small businesses, is hindered by the scarcity of labor- technical work and also the difficulty to understand all the rules. The second obstacle is compounded by the fragmentation of the model discussed above. It is therefore important to involve the extension and development agencies that can serve as a bridge of information between managers and small businesses.

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 2011. / Submitted by Shayane Marques Zica (marquacizh@uol.com.br) on 2011-09-05T16:44:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2011_AlessandraBortoniNinis.pdf: 2465177 bytes, checksum: ca053ade1b8b8bdde3b003dfd788b882 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jaqueline Ferreira de Souza(jaquefs.braz@gmail.com) on 2011-10-14T12:32:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2011_AlessandraBortoniNinis.pdf: 2465177 bytes, checksum: ca053ade1b8b8bdde3b003dfd788b882 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-10-14T12:32:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2011_AlessandraBortoniNinis.pdf: 2465177 bytes, checksum: ca053ade1b8b8bdde3b003dfd788b882 (MD5) / O avanço científico e tecnológico dos últimos dois séculos fez aflorar na sociedadecontemporânea o interesse pelas consequências do progresso técnico para o futuro dahumanidade. Nas últimas décadas tem-se intensificado a discussão em relação aosavanços das tecnociências (biotecnologia, nanotecnologia, neurociência etc.), naconformação do homem e da sociedade do futuro. Por um lado, tais técnicas geram eprometem gerar ainda mais inovação no sistema agroalimentar, na medicina, no meioambiente e no próprio homem; por outro, não apresentam segurança sobre as suasimplicações em longo prazo, principalmente no que concerne aos seus efeitosintergeracionais e sobre a biodiversidade. Diante da complexidade do tema, o estudo sobreos efeitos da rápida evolução das tecnociências para a humanidade não comporta mais oolhar fragmentário do paradigma cartesiano. Nesta perspectiva, este trabalho propõe umaabordagem diferenciada sobre a temática da manipulação genética, baseada no paradigmada complexidade, de forma a compreender as interações sistêmicas entre diferentesdimensões de análise social, entre a representação social, a ideologia científica, asociedade de risco, o biocapitalismo e as dinâmicas políticas. O trabalho tem como objetivoanalisar as interações complexas entre essas dimensões, no intuito de demonstrar comoelas se relacionam entre si, conformando-se num sistema complexo. Buscou-se traçar umaanálise transversal entre estas dimensões a fim de obter uma visão sistêmica em torno dasdiferentes percepções e efeitos das técnicas de manipulação genética, desenvolvendo umpensamento capaz de enfrentar a complexidade da questão da biotecnologia na sociedadecontemporânea e sugerindo a constituição de uma nova etapa do desenvolvimentocapitalista, onde a vida transforma-se em mercadoria. _______________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT / The scientific and technological advances of recent centuries has fostered interest incontemporary society about the consequences of technical progress for the future ofhumanity. In the last decades the debate regarding the advances of technoscience(biotechnology, nanotechnology, neuroscience etc.) in the conformation of man and societyof the future has been intensified. On the one hand, these techniques promise, among othersthings, generate huge innovation in agrofood system, in medicine, in the environment and inman himself, on the other hand, have no security on its long-term implications, especiallyregarding the effects of intergenerational use and the effects over biodiversity. Given thecomplexity of the subject, the study of the effects of technosciences for humanity does notsupport anymore the fragmented look of the Cartesian paradigm. Taking this perspective,this paper proposes a different approach on the issue of genetic manipulation, based on theparadigm of complexity in order to understand the systemic interactions between differentdimensions of social analysis: the social representation, the scientific ideology, the risksociety, the economic power and the political dynamics. The work aims to analyze thecomplex interactions between these dimensions in order to demonstrate how they relate toeach other, conforming to a complex system. We tried to draw a cross-sectional analysis ofthese dimensions in order to get a systemic view about the different perceptions and effectsof genetic manipulation techniques, developing an argument able to face the complexity ofthe issue of biotechnology in contemporary society.

O cenário volátil da inovação tecnológica demonstra a necessidade de processos para controle de risco, como forma de garantir a sua viabilidade. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo propor diretrizes para o gerenciamento de riscos na introdução de novas tecnologias por startups no mercado brasileiro. O estudo propôs categorias conceituais relacionadas à gestão de riscos em startups, com base principal na abordagem do NPVR (Net Present Value Risk-Adjusted). A metodologia contou com quatro estudos de caso comparativos: MercadoPago, GuiaBolso, Catarse e Betalabs, que tiveram seus dados coletados por meio de entrevistas com os principais gestores e documentos fornecidos pelas organizações. A análise de dados foi realizada a partir do modelo de Miles, Huberman e Saldaña (2014), por meio do qual se deu a condensação dos dados; a visualização dos dados; e, a elaboração e verificação de conclusões. Entre os principais resultados, destacam-se a proposição de uma matriz dedutiva-indutiva para o gerenciamento de riscos e incertezas em startups, que traz elementos que propiciam o cálculo do valor presente líquido ajustado ao risco do desenvolvimento de um novo produto ou serviço, assim como aporte do nível de maturidade da gestão de risco das empresas estudadas, configurando a Startup Risk Management Matrix. / The volatile scenario of technological innovation demonstrates the need for risk controlling processes, in order to ensure its viability. This Master\'s thesis proposes a conceptual framework for risk management in the introduction of new technologies by startups in Brazil, aiming to provide the guidelines for the improvement of this process. The study comes up with conceptual categories related to risk management in startups, mainly based on the NPVR (Net Present Value) approach. The methodology included four comparative case studies: MercadoPago, Catarse, Betalabs and GuiaBolso, which had their data collected through interviews with key managers and documents provided by the organizations. Data analysis was based on Miles, Huberman, and Saldana (2014) model, whereby data were condensed; data were visualized; and conclusions developed and checked. Among the main results, there is the proposition of a deductive-inductive matrix for the management of uncertainties and risks in startups, which brings elements that provide the calculation of the net present value adjusted to the risk of developing a new product or service, as well as the contribution of the level of risk management maturity of the studied companies, setting up the Startup Risk Management Matrix

O gerenciamento de riscos é um assunto que assume, crise após crise, papel relevante no ambiente das instituições não-financeiras. A despeito, entretanto, da importância crescente do assunto, discussões acerca da implementação de um modelo capaz de avaliar os riscos aos quais as empresas estão expostas ainda são incipientes. Considerando a existência desta lacuna e a importância do tema para as empresas, este estudo propõe a construção de um modelo teórico para mensuração do fluxo de caixa em risco e o aplica a empresas pertencentes ao setor de distribuição de energia elétrica no Brasil. Tal modelo deve ser capaz de informar a probabilidade de uma empresa não dispor de recursos para honrar seus compromissos em determinada data de pagamento futura, ou vértices do fluxo. / Risk management becomes, crisis after crisis, a widely discussed topic in the non-financial institutions environment. Besides its importance to those institutions, discussions on models capable of evaluating risks faced by companies are still premature. Considering this lack and the theme’s importance to non-financial institutions, this work proposes a theoretical model, which aims to measure firms´ cash flow-at-risk. Afterwards, the proposed model is applied and tested in Brazilian Electric Sector companies. Such a model may be able to return the probability that a company faces a financial distress, for not being able to make due payments in the set dates.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-01T23:40:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_12100_Dissertacao - Murilo Zamboni.pdf: 1952203 bytes, checksum: bf947c10ffd69ddff6dd15cc17b89bf1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-20 / CAPES / As atuais cadeias de suprimentos são redes globais complexas que favorecem os eventos interruptores que podem afetar não só uma empresa, mas diversos membros de sua cadeia. Ocorre que algumas cadeias possuem a habilidade de retornar de forma mais célere do que outras ao seu estado normal, ou melhorar após a ocorrência desses eventos, emergindo daí os estudos e a essencialidade do tema “resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos”. Embora alguns modelos tenham sido desenvolvidos para explicá-la, o presente estudo considera trabalhos anteriores capazes, mas insuficientes, já que ignoram a interdependência entre as capabilidades que resultam em resiliência, ignoram o papel da orientação analítica nesse cenário cada vez mais incerto, bem como adotam dimensões além da recuperação para operacionalizar o construto. Nesse sentido, o principal objetivo deste estudo foi verificar se o desenvolvimento de um pacote de capabilidades em resiliência (colaboração, visibilidade, flexibilidade e orientação analítica) e o gerenciamento de riscos em cadeias de suprimentos resultam na resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos. De forma complementar, buscou-se contribuir com uma melhor compreensão acerca do construto “resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos”, além de verificar o impacto do pacote de capabilidades proposto na gestão de riscos. Para tal, um questionário online foi aplicado a profissionais-chave de indústrias de diferentes portes e setores da Região Sudeste, obtendo-se 143 respostas. Após a coleta, os dados foram analisados por meio da modelagem de equações estruturais no software Smart-PLS. Os resultados apontam que o pacote de capabilidades em resiliência impacta positivamente a resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos; por outro lado, o mesmo não se pode dizer da relação entre gerenciamento de riscos e resiliência. De modo geral, o modelo testado foi capaz de explicar 14,50% da variação na resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos e 31,40% da variação na gestão de riscos em cadeias de suprimentos. Ademais, contribuiu-se para a ampliação da discussão acerca do construto “resiliência em cadeias de suprimentos”. / The current supply chains are global networks that favor the interrupting events that can affect not only a company, but many members of its chain. What happens is that some chains have the ability to go back to normal faster than others, or getting better after these events, making the theme and the studies about “resilience in the supply chain” crucial. Even though some models have been developed to explain it, the presented study considers previous works capable but insufficient, once they ignore the correlation among capabilities that result in resilience, they ignore the role of analyticial orientation in this uncertain scenario as well as adopt dimensions beyond the recovery to operationalize the construct. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to verify if the development of a package of capabilities in resilience (cooperation, visibility, flexibility and analytical orientation) and the management of risks in supply chains result in the resilience of supply chains. In addition to that, it was aimed to contribute with better comprehension over the construct “resilience in supply chains”, besides verifying the impact of the package of capabilities recommended in the management of risks. To do so, an online questionnaire was applied to key-workers from industries of different sizes and fields in the Southeast region of Brazil, obtaining 143 answers. After collected, the data was analyzed through a structural equation modeling in the software Smart-PLS. The results show that the package of supply chaim resilience capabilities positively impacts the resilience in supply chains; on the other hand, the same can’t be said about the relation between risk management and resilience. Overall, the model tested was capable of explaining 14,50% of the variation in supply chain resilience and 31,4% of the variation in the supply chain risk management. Furthermore, it was possible to contribute to the broadening of the discussion regarding the construct “resilience in supply chains”.