This dissertation studies the impact of multiple pre-specified sources of risk in the return of three non-overlapping groups of countries, through an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model. The groups are composed of emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets have become important players in the world economy, especially as capital receptors, but they were not included in the majority of previous related works. Two strategies are used to choose two set of risk factors. The first one is to use macroeconomic variables, as prescribed by most of the literature, such as world excess return, exchange rates, variation in the spread between Eurodollar deposit tax and U.S. Treasury bill (TED spread) and change in the oil price. The second strategy is to extract factors by using a principal component analysis, designated as statistical factors. The first important result is a great resemblance between the first statistical factor and the world excess return. We estimate the APT model using two statistical methodologies: Iterated Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ITNLSUR) by McElroy and Burmeister (1988) and the Generalized Method Moments (GMM) by Hansen (1982). The results from both methods are very similar. With macroeconomic variables, only the world excess of return is priced in the three groups with a premium varying from 4.4% to 6.3% per year and, in the model with statistical variables, only the first statistical factor is priced in all groups with a premium varying from 6.2% to 8.5% per year. / Essa dissertação estuda o impacto de múltiplas fontes de riscos pré-especificados nos retornos de três grupos de países não sobrepostos, através de um modelo de Teoria de Precificação por Arbitragem (APT). Os grupos são compostos por mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos. Mercados emergentes tornaram-se importantes na economia mundial, especialmente como receptores de capital, mas não foram inclusos na maioria dos trabalhos correlatos anteriores. Duas estratégias foram adotadas para a escolha de dois conjuntos de fatores de risco. A primeira foi utilizar variáveis macroeconômicas, descritas na maior parte da literatura, como e excesso de retorno da carteira mundial, taxas de câmbio, variação da diferença entre a taxa de depósito em Eurodólar e a U.S. Treasury Bill (TED Spread) e mudanças no preço do petróleo. A segunda estratégia foi extrair fatores de risco através de uma análise de componentes principais, denominados fatores estatísticos. O primeiro resultado importante é a grande semelhança entre o primeiro fator estatístico e o retorno da carteira mundial. Nós estimamos o modelo APT usando duas metodologias estatísticas: Regressões Aparentemente não Correlacionadas Iteradas (ITNLSUR) de McElroy e Burmeister (1988) e o Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM) de Hansen (1982). Os resultados de ambas as metodologias são muito similares. Utilizando variáveis macroeconômicas, apenas o excesso de retorno da carteira mundial é precificado nos três grupos com prêmios variando de 4,4% a 6.3% ao ano e, no modelo com variáveis estatísticas, apenas o primeiro fator estatístico é precificado em todos os grupos com prêmios que variam entre 6,2% a 8,5% ao ano.

Este trabalho tem como intuito aplicar quatro estratégias de arbitragem estatística ao mercado acionário brasileiro no período compreendido entre 2004 e 2012. A primeira delas explora o fenômeno de momentum e tem como referência Jegadeesh e Titman (1993). A segunda trata de replicação de benchmarks utilizando técnicas de cointegração e foi baseada parcialmente em Alexander e Dimitriu (2002). A terceira é uma estratégia do tipo pair trade e tem referência em Gatev et al (2006). A última é uma estratégia de reversão de preços relativos de uma cesta de ações utilizando a abordagem de componentes principais e tem como referência Avellaneda e Lee (2010). Foram implementadas algumas modificações nas estratégias de forma que estas se adaptassem a certas características do mercado brasileiro e possuíssem maior grau de realismo: 1) o nível de alavancagem foi controlado de forma mais rigorosa; 2) os principais parâmetros foram determinados endogenamente, com dados fora da amostra. 3) só foram consideradas ações com grau razoável de liquidez; e 4) os custos de transação foram obtidos de séries cotadas, ao invés de fixados arbitrariamente. Os resultados mostraram que, após a contabilização dos custos de transação, nenhuma estratégia foi capaz de gerar excessos de retorno positivos com alta significância estatística. O trabalho também contribui ao fornecer alguma referência de custos médios de bid ask spread e taxas de empréstimo de ações para estratégias de arbitragem estatística no mercado acionário brasileiro. / This work tests four statistical arbitrage strategies in the Brazilian stock market from 2004 to 2012. The first one explores momentum and the reference is Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The second replicates a positive benchmark using cointegration techniques and was based, partially, on Alexander and Dimitriu (2002). The third is a pair trade strategy and is connected to Gatev et al (2006). The last one is a portfolio price reversal strategy that uses principal component analysis and is based on Avellaneda and Lee (2010). Some modifications were made in the strategies in order to adapt them to the local market characteristics and to make them more realistic: 1) the leverage was controlled more strictly; 2) the main parameters were determined endogenously; 3) Only liquid stocks were considered; 4) the transaction costs were obtained from quoted data, instead of determined arbitrarily. The results indicated that, after the transaction costs being taken in to account, no strategy was capable of generate excess returns with high statistical significance. Other contribution of this work is to give some reference of transaction costs involved in statistical arbitrage strategies in the Brazilian stock market.

Cette thèse est une étude comparative entre la loi française et la loi égyptienne ; elle porte sur le cadre juridique du cyber arbitrage dans le commerce international, ces termes signifiant la dématérialisation des procédures de l’arbitrage lequel représente un moyen alternatif pour régler les litiges commerciaux. La question est de savoir dans quelle mesure les règles de l'arbitrage traditionnel sont aptes à régir l'arbitrage dématérialisé et s’il faut créer pour ce dernier des règles juridiques spécifiques. La réponse à cette problématique s’articule autour de la possibilité pour toutes les règles de la législation d’adopter les nouvelles technologies. Notons que l’arbitrage dématérialisé est soumis à la même règle traditionnelle régie par la théorie générale des contrats, selon le principe de la volonté des parties, mais cet arbitrage se déroule hors la présence de ces dernières car par le biais de moyens électroniques. La procédure arbitrale aura lieu à distance, cependant, si au plan technique l'arbitrage en ligne se pratique aisément, il n’en va pas de même au plan juridique. En d’autres termes, l'arbitrage classique comprend pléthore de conditions impératives tant sur le fonds que sur la forme, conditions que l'arbitrage en ligne, en vertu de sa nature, ne réussit pas à satisfaire en totalité. Les deux lois comparées sont globalement convergentes et concordent avec les principes internationaux. Après une longue période de franche hostilité on note, dans les années quatre-vingts de la part des pays arabes, des changements dans leur attitude à l’égard de l’arbitrage commercial international. Toutefois, la loi française dépasse la loi égyptienne en matière électronique. / This thesis is a comparative study between French law and Egyptian law; it concerns The legal framework for cyber arbitration in international trade, these terms mean paperless arbitration procedures which represents an alternative way to resolve trade disputes. The question is to what extent the rules of traditional arbitration are able to govern dematerialized arbitration and whether to create it for specific legal rules. The answer to this problem is based on the ability of all the rules of law to adopt new technologies. Note that the dematerialized arbitration is subject to the same traditional rule governed by the general theory of contract, on the basis of the will of the parties, but the arbitration shall be conducted without the presence of the latter because through electronic means. The arbitration proceedings will be held remotely, however, if technically online arbitration easily practice it does not hold true in legal terms. In other words, the classic arbitration includes plethora of mandatory conditions on both the funds and the form, terms as online arbitration, pursuant to its nature, does not satisfy in full. Both laws are compared globally convergent and consistent with international principles. After a long period of open hostility there are, in the eighty years from Arab countries, changes in their attitude to international commercial arbitration. However, French law exceeds the Egyptian law on electronic material.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Motivated by the growing attraction of the mutual fund industries across the world, this research seeks to explore the economic benefits contributed by the South African equity unit trust managers over the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 September 2012. The performance is examined over two sub-periods and the overall examination period, where the first sub-period captures the performance of the unit trusts before the 2007/2008 global financial crisis and the second sub-period captures the devastation in performance of the unit trusts after the crisis. Active fund managers are usually presumed to possess superior abilities in asset allocation, security selection and market timing that assist them to consistently generate abnormal returns on a risk-adjusted basis. This research attempts to test this claim by making a distinction in performance attribution between returns generated as a result of managerial skills and those generated as a result of random chance. The study emerges by first examining the risk-adjusted performance of the South African unit trust managers against the performance of a broad market index proxied by FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI). Six different risk-adjusted performance measures are employed for this purpose. Regardless of the different applications of risk parameters employed by each performance measure, the results reveal that on average, most of the South African unit trust managers do not outperform the market on a consistent basis. The majority of the unit trust managers show good performance during the first sub-period, with subsequent inferiority in performance during the second sub-period. The study further examines the performance of the South African unit trust managers relative to the pre-specified sector benchmarks constructed by following a set of performance attribution techniques proposed by Yu (2008) and Hsieh (2010). The objective of this test is to determine whether the equity unit trust managers are able to create value through their security selection skill in addition to their asset allocation decisions. Consistent with international evidence, the results reveal that returns generated by South African unit trusts are driven mainly by asset allocation activities and stock picking of asset managers do not add significant value. In addition, test results also indicate that South African equity unit trust managers are not good at managing risk as the majority of the unit trusts exhibit higher standard deviation compared to their benchmarks. Furthermore, the study examines the economic value contribution of the South African equity unit trust managers through their market timing activities. In particular, the study attempts to determine whether or not unit trust managers possess the ability to correctly anticipate future market movements. To achieve this, two market timing performance models developed by Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henrikson-Merton (1981) are employed. The results reveal that, regardless of the changes in market conditions, South African equity unit trust mangers delivered significantly inferior timing performance in both sub-periods and the overall examination periods that actually destroyed fund values. The paper concludes by stating that investors are better off by investing in cost-effective passive investment vehicles such as exchange traded funds (ETF's).

This thesis deals with statistical arbitrage as a strategy applied in algorithmic trading of US Treasury bonds in the selected timeframe from 1980 until 2017. Our aim is to prove that a specific event on the treasury market, namely reopening of the bonds, constitutes an arbitrage opportunity that enables the investor to systematically yield extraordinary profits on the market. This thesis includes a theoretical introduction to algorithmic trading and statistical arbitrage. Based on this introduction we formulate hypotheses, which are then tested in the application part by constructing an algorithm that simulates a trading strategy on historical data. Comparing three strategies we determined that this strategy is meaningful, or performs better than a random walk and that it is profitable.

A convertible bond (CB) is a hybrid security possessing the characteristics of both debt and equity. It gives the holder the right to convert the bond into a pre-specified number of shares (usually by the same issuer of the CB) until maturity of the bond, and may also contain additional features such as callability and putability. CB’s along with all hybrid securities are difficult to value due to their uncertain income stream. In this dissertation several convertible bond valuation models are suggested, but with particular attention to the calibration of the underlying inputs into the model and also by taking default risk into account, which is extremely important given the subordination of convertibles. The models range from the basic component models that decompose the CB into a straight bond and an exchange/call option; to more sophisticated ones consisting of stochastic interest rates, default risk, volatility structures, and even some exotics such as exchangeable and inflation-linked convertibles. An important aspect often missed by CB valuation models is the presence of negative convexity for extremely low share prices. As such a credit spread function dependent upon the underlying share price is introduced into the Tsiveriotis and Fernandes, and Hung and Wang models which improve upon the accuracy of the original models. Once a reliable model has been developed it becomes necessary to take advantage of convertible arbitrage trading strategies if they exist. The typical delta hedge, gamma hedge and option strategies that many convertible hedge funds employ are explained including the underlying risks with respect to the “Greeks”. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / unrestricted

L’arbitrage est la motivation première de la création de l’Organisation pour l’Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires (OHADA) pour lutter contre l’insécurité juridique et promouvoir son développement. Cet arbitrage s’inspire des règles matérielles de l’arbitrage international qui accorde une importance particulière à la volonté des parties.L’arbitrage dans l’espace OHADA est régi par le Traité, un acte uniforme et le règlement d’arbitrage de la Cour Commune de Justice et d’Arbitrage(C.C.J.A).Le droit de l’arbitrage a certes amélioré le cadre normatif surtout dans les pays qui n’en disposaient pas, mais au bout de plus d’une décennie d’existence, cet arbitrage est confronté à de nombreuses difficultés d’application. Ces difficultés proviennent de ces acteurs (parties, arbitres et juge national).Ainsi, notre réflexion vise à analyser les difficultés d’application à partir du contentieux arbitral et à proposer des mesures susceptibles d’améliorer le droit et la pratique de l’arbitrage. / Firstly, arbitration should be a primary motivator for the creation of the Oganization for Harmonization of Business Law in Africa to fight against the legal insecurity and promote development. This arbitration taites it’s inspiration from rules of international arbitration which gives a particular importance to the will of the parties. The arbitration in the OHADA zone is governed by its Treaty and an uniform act as well as the rules of arbitration of the common Court of justice and Arbitration(CCJA).The Law of arbitartion has certainly improved the legal framework especially in the countries which do not have it. However, after several years of existance. this arbitration is confronted with several difficulties of application. This difficulties originated from its its various parties i.e. Therefore, our reflection aims at analysing the difficulties of application which originates from the arbitration dispute and to propose measures which could improve the Law and the practice of Arbitration.

The study describes how cointegration-based techniques can be employed in order to construct profitable trading strategies that exploit mispricing events between similar securities. Particularly, the Johansen Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Kalman filter approaches are applied to the universe of 200 most liquid ETF stocks traded on NYSE and NASDAQ. The results show that the strategies are quite sensitive to transaction costs, but are still able to maintain profitability even after accounting for a conservative level of transaction costs. While the Kalman filter produces better results on daily data, the 15-minute timeframe is dominated by portfolios constructed by the Johansen cointegration test. Both strategies achieve significantly higher risk-adjusted returns on the intraday timeframe. The study also reveals a performance decline of both strategies in the period of 2013-2015 and outlines possible interpretation of such event.

La protection internationale des investissements étrangers dans la Communauté Économique des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO) suppose d’établir la compétence de celle-ci à assurer une sécurisation des biens des opérateurs économiques ressortissants d’Etats tiers dans son espace. Ainsi, il a été démontré que, par le biais de ses instruments de réalisation de l’intégration régionale, cette organisation communautaire pourrait être amenée à assurer une sécurisation des investissements étrangers. Mais, quoique fusse grande la volonté de la CEDEAO d’assumer une telle fonction, l’analyse démontre qu’elle présente certaines insuffisances qui sont intrinsèquement liées à la différence de nature entre le droit communautaire et le droit conventionnel des investissements. Face à ce constat, il urgeait de trouver d’autres instruments supplétifs, voire complémentaires dans la protection communautaire des investissements étrangers. Ces dits instruments ont été localisés dans le droit international général, tant à travers ses règles substantielles que ses mécanismes procéduraux. Cependant, si la protection que procure le droit de la CEDEAO sur les biens des investisseurs étrangers a été jugée inefficace, celle du droit international, en revanche, semble excessive au point d’être préjudiciable aux Etats hôtes, si tant qu’elle nécessite un nivellement. À l’examen, l’observateur pourrait avoir la sensation qu’il existe un bras de fer entre le droit international et le droit communautaire dans la sécurisation des biens des opérateurs économiques étrangers. Cet observateur constatera ensuite que le droit de la protection des étrangers entre dans une nouvelle ère. En effet, longtemps limitée dans le cadre bilatéral entre Etat d’origine et Etat d’accueil de l’investissement, la problématique de la sécurisation des investissements étrangers a acquis une telle acuité dans la vie économique des entités étatiques qu’elle tend à devenir une affaire de communauté. Il se rendra, enfin, surtout compte que, si le droit conventionnel des investissements a pour visée la protection des étrangers, il peut, à certains égards, constituer un stimulant à la bonne gouvernance. / The international protection of foreign Investments within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) requires establishing the competence of the latter to ensure the security of the property of economic operators who are nationals of third States in its area. Thus, it has been shown that through its instruments for achieving regional integration, this community organization could be led to ensure the security of foreign investments. But, although ECOWAS’s willingness to assume such a function is great, the analysis shows that it has certain shortcomings which are intrinsically linked to the difference in nature between Community law and the Conventional law of investment. In this view, it was urgent to find other supplementary and even complementary instruments in the community protection of foreign investments within the community. These instruments have been localized in General International Law both through its substantive rules as in its procedural mechanics. However, while the protection afforded by ECOWAS law to the properties of foreign investors has been found to be ineffective, that of the international law, on the other hand, seems excessive to the point of being detrimental to host States, as long as it requires leveling. On examination, the observer might have the feeling that there is a tug of war between International law and Community law in securing the assets of foreign economic operators. This observer will then note that the law of the protection of foreigners enters a new era. Indeed, for a long time limited in the bilateral framework between the State of origin and the host States of the investment, the issue of securing foreign investments has acquired such acuity in the economic life of the State entities that it is tends to become a community affair. Finally, i twill be appreciated that, while the purpose of conventional investment law is the protection of foreigners, it may, in some respects, be a stimulus to good governance.

The activity of algorithmic trading is increasing steadily across capital markets due to technological developments. This thesis analyses the common algorithmic intraday trading strategies of momentum, mean reversion, and statistical arbitrage. Conclusions were drawn from a literature review of prior and current research. Algorithmic arbitrage was found to be the most profitable of the three evaluated strategies, because it typically takes place in high frequency trading. Furthermore, this thesis analyses the impact of algorithmic trading on market liquidity and volatility. While the literature mainly agrees that algorithmic trading has a positive effect on liquidity, its impact on volatility is subject to discussion. Algorithmic and high-frequency trading carry risks that will likely lead to new future regulations.:1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Problem description and goal of the research 1.3 Structure of the thesis and research questions 2 THEORETICAL FUNDAMENTALS 2.1 Intraday trading 2.1.1 Definition 2.1.2 Characteristics of intraday trading markets 2.1.3 Financial instruments of intraday trading 2.1.4 Goals and profit chances of individual intraday traders 2.2 Algorithmic trading 2.2.1 Algorithm definitions 2.2.2 Algorithmic trading definitions 2.2.3 High-frequency trading 2.2.4 Characteristics of algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading 2.2.5 Trading algorithm characteristics 3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Data collection 3.2 Data analysis 4 ALGORITHM-BASED INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGIES AND THEIR PROFIT POTENTIAL 4.1 Momentum strategy 4.1.1 Definition and basic principle of the strategy 4.1.2 Underlying theories of the momentum strategy 4.1.3 Selected studies of an algorithmic intraday momentum strategy 4.2 Mean reversion strategy 4.2.1 Definition and basic principle of the strategy 4.2.2 Underlying theories of the mean reversion strategy 4.2.3 Relation of mean reversion and momentum 4.2.4 Selected studies of an algorithmic intraday mean reversion strategy 4.3 Arbitrage strategy 4.3.1 Definition and basic principle of the strategy 4.3.2 Types of Arbitrage 4.3.3 Underlying theories of the arbitrage strategy 4.3.4 Selected studies of an algorithmic intraday statistical arbitrage strategy 4.4 Further trading algorithms and strategy components 4.4.1 Speed Advantage algorithms 4.4.2 Accuracy Advantage Algorithms 5 IMPACT OF ALGORITHMIC TRADING ON MARKET LIQUIDITY AND VOLATILITY 5.1 Market liquidity 5.1.1 Definition 5.1.2 Bid-Ask Spread 5.1.3 Dimensions of liquidity 5.1.4 The impact of algorithmic trading on market liquidity 5.2 Market volatility 5.2.1 Definition and characteristics of volatility 5.2.2 The impact of algorithmic trading on market volatility 6 CONCLUSION AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF ALGORITHMIC TRADING PUBLICATION BIBLIOGRAPHY DECLARATION OF HONOR