The diffusion of the Internet is the interest of many firms or individuals who see the Internet as an opportunity, a threat, or both. Huge amount of intellectual and real capital are invested on Internet. The more people understand the dynamics of Internet diffusion, the better they will manage the efforts put on it. The purpose of this study is to explore the extent to which the diffusion of the Internet-related innovation could be adequately described by the diffusion models and the effect of internal influence versus external influence described in the models. Two hypotheses of the Internet innovation diffusion are proposed. First, the number of potential adopters of the Internet innovation diffusion is dynamic, not constant. Second, in contrast to the traditional innovations, the diffusion of Internet innovation has stronger interpersonal communication influence than the promotional activity effect. Twelve Internet innovations are estimated in both the Bass model and the Dynamic model. The first hypothesis is fully supported, and the second hypothesis is partially supported. Based on the evidence, Internet innovations can be categorized into web-based versus non-web. The non-web Internet innovation of connection and communication like Internet, ADSL, and Skype has no significant difference of the ratio of the internal influence and the external influence effects to the traditional innovations. The segment-focused niche website, such as Amazon, eBay, and PayPal, has the strong internal influence effect. Understanding the various effects of Internet innovation diffusion can provide advantages in terms of enhancing functions and planning marketing strategies and tactics.

Battery Electric Vehicle as an environmental friendly transportation alternative has already emerged as well as fade out of the market twice. It has been reintroduced along with the increasing concern about the environment issue. This recent diffusion is surrounded by lots of dynamic changes and uncertainties. However, most current studies focus on political, financial as well as infrastructure factors but neglect factors like the technology especially how people perceived it. Therefore, this study mainly research into how the technology development impact on the diffusion of battery electric vehicle.To achieve this aim, a model based study was conducted targeting Swedish electric vehicle market. In the research, customers are considered to be the target objective because they are the one  who perceive the technology and make decision for adoption directly. In order to know the relationship between them, researches have been conducted through qualitative and quantitative approach. Empirical work including interviews and survey were conducted through tripartite aspect to investigate the customer needs and related technology. The investigation indicates the environmentally friendly performance is the key driving force perceived by the early adopters. Meanwhile, range issue, total cost of ownership and safety & technology reliability are identified as the top three critical concerns that  hold back customer purchasing decision. A modified classic model for the innovation diffusion has been proposed which is used to evaluate the technology’s perception based on historical data. Two BEV- related technologies were chosen as examples to prove and illustrate the relationship between technology development and electric vehicle diffusion.The results showed that the BEV-related technologies, which have potential ability to address critical customer demand, are able to impact on the customer adoption positively through valid perception by customer. Taking technology development and perception into consideration, the diffusion process should be accelerated to some extent. Technologies which can be more easily perceived tend to have more impact in the diffusion process. / Batteridrivna elektriska fordon(BEV) som ett miljövänligt transportalternativ redan har dykt upp, liksom försvunnit från marknaden två gånger. Det har återinförts tillsammans med den ökande oron för miljöfrågan. Denna nya diffusion är omgiven av dynamiska förändringar och osäkerheter. Men de flesta av dagens studier fokuserar på politiska, ekonomiska och infrastrukturella faktorer, men försummar faktorer relaterat till tekniken framför allt hur människor uppfattar det. Därför undersökte denna studie främst hur den tekniska utvecklingen påverkar spridningen av batteridrivna fordon.För att uppnå detta syfte, gjordes en modell baserad kring en studie av den svenska elbilsmarknaden. I forskningen anses kunderna vara målet målgruppen eftersom de är de som uppfattar tekniken och tar beslut om införandet direkt. För att veta förhållandet mellan dem, har kvalitativa och kvantitativa undersökningar genomförts. Empiriskt arbete inklusive intervjuer och undersökningen genomfördes genom tre olika aspekter för att undersöka kundernas behov och relaterad teknik. Undersökningen visar att miljövänlig prestanda är den viktigaste drivkraften som uppfattas av early adopters. Samtidigt har räckviddsproblematiken, totala ägandekostnaden och tillförlitlighet i säkerhet och teknologi identifierats som de tre kritiska problemen som tillbakahåller kunden från ett köpbeslut. En modifierad klassisk modell för innovationsspridning har föreslagits som används för att utvärdera teknikens uppfattning baserad på historiska data. Två BEV-relaterade teknologier valdes som exempel för att bevisa och illustrera förhållandet mellan teknikutveckling och elbilsdiffusion.Resultaten visade att BEV-relaterad teknologi, som har potential förmåga att ta itu med den kritiska efterfrågan från kunderna, kan påverka kundacceptans positivt genom giltig uppfattning av kunden. Om teknikutveckling och uppfattning beaktas, bör diffusionsprocessen påskyndas i viss utsträckning. Teknik som lättare kan uppfattas tenderar att ha mer genomslag i diffusionsprocessen.

Mobile telecommunications industry has experienced high growth rates for the recent 30 years. Accordingly, forecasting the future of mobile telecommunications services is important not only for mobile operators but also for all stakeholders in this industry ranging from handset manufacturers to vendors. In this thesis, the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in 20 countries from different regions around the world is examined for the period of 1981 to 2010 with special emphasis on Turkey, in order to address the uncertainty in optimal model selection. The Gompertz, logistic and Bass models are fitted to the observed data of mobile phone penetration by means of nonlinear least squares. The fitness accuracies of the models are evaluated based on root mean square error (RMSE). Empirical results show that S-shaped growth models are capable of explaining the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services. The findings also suggest that there is no superior model in defining the diffusion process and the most suitable model is country dependent. Finally, we observe that the diffusion in late entrant countries appears to be faster than pioneer countries and peak demands in mobile telephones occur during the period of 1999 to 2006, which suggests a remarkable multinational learning effect and significance of the transition into digital technology.

National culture has a significant influence on how innovations are adopted and diffuse throughout society. Existing innovation literature often employ Hofstede’s cultural difference dimensions to predict technology diffusion, which is critical to international marketers who are interested in tapping into this region. However, whilst Hofstede initially clustered the Arab nations into one region, past works have failed to compare and predict the diffusion of innovations amongst the Middle East and North African (MENA) nations. To address this research gap and to challenge Hofstede’s assumption of the MENA region as one cultural homogenous group, this study proposes to 1) measure the cultural differences of the seven nations, including Kuwait, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, and Lebanon within the MENA region and 2) explore the relationship between national culture and the diffusion of innovations amongst the seven countries. Using Hofstede’s latest national culture instrument, the Value Survey Model 2013 (VSM13), 775 survey data is collected from university students based in the seven nations to obtain new national cultural profiles on six dimensions, which are power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, indulgent versus restraint, long-term orientation and masculinity femininity index. Empirical evidence shows that all seven nations differ significantly on each of Hofstede’s national culture dimensions, particularly on the power distance, uncertainty avoidance, indulgent versus restraint, and long term orientation dimension. The Bass Model is employed to estimate each of the seven nation’s diffusion patterns based on their mobile subscription data, and then correlated with their national culture ranks along with other variables such as socioeconomic indicators and telecommunication sector specific variables. The findings indicate that out of the six national culture indices, only the power distance index, indulgent versus restraint, long term orientation, and uncertainty avoidance dimensions show significant correlations with the innovation and imitations levels on the national level, suggesting that these particular cultural scales can effect and limit the innovation levels and the speed of the diffusion process of innovations. Results also indicate that literacy rate and urbanization are significantly correlated with the speed of the diffusion process and imitation levels on the national level. This research sheds new light on cross national diffusion literature by empirically revealing the innovative and imitative profiles of seven Arab States that were previously underrepresented and untested. The present study also provides fresh insights into the diffusion and national culture relationship by analysing the MENA region, which presents a theoretical contribution to cross cultural diffusion studies by advancing our understanding of the process by which Hofstede’s dimensions are associated with innovative and imitative levels. International marketing managers are thus advised to adopt a waterfall strategy when approaching the MENA region, in which innovative countries, such as Kuwait, are first targeted for introducing innovative products and services, through mass media and advertising. Whilst imitative countries, such as Egypt, are targeted for last entry, with a marketing communication plan that utilizes brand ambassadors and influencers, so as to reduce the risk and uncertainty of the innovation in question.

The Bass model has been used extensively and globally to forecast the first purchases of new products. It has been named by INFORMS as one of the top 10 most influential papers published in the 50-year history of Management Science. Most models for the diffusion of innovation are deeply rooted in the work of Bass (1969). His work provides a framework to model the underlying process of innovation adaption among first-time customers. Potential customers may be connected to one another in some sort of network. Prior research has shown that the structure of a network affects adoption patterns (Dover et al. 2012; Hill et al. 2006; Katona and Sarvary 2008; Katona et al. 2011; Newman et al. 2006; Shaikh et al. 2010; Van den Bulte and Joshi 2007). One approach to addressing this issue is to incorporate network information into the original Bass model. The focus of this study is to explore how to incorporate network information and other micro-level data into the Bass model. First, I prove that the Bass Model assumes all potential customers are linked to all other customers. Through simulations of individual adoptions and connections among individuals using a Random Network , I show that the estimate of q in the Bass Model is biased downward in the original Bass model. I find that biases in the Bass Model depend on the structure of the network. I relax the assumption of the fully connected network by proposing a Network-Based Bass model (NBB), which incorporates the network structure into the traditional Bass model. Using the proposed model (NBB), I am able to recover the true parameters. To test the generalizability and to enhance the applicability of my NBB model, I tested my NBB model on the various network types with sampled data from the population network. I showed that my NBB model is robust across different types of networks, and it is efficient in terms of sample size. With a small fraction of data from the population, it accurately recovered the true parameters. Therefore, the NBB model can be used when we do not have complete network information. The last essay is the first attempt to incorporate heterogeneous peer influence into the NBB model, based on individuals' preference structures. Besides the significant extension of the NBB (Bass) Model, incorporating high-quality data on individual behavior into the model leads to new findings on individuals' adoption behaviors, and thus expands our knowledge of the diffusion process.

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous problems with product quality and time-to-market launches can be traced back to the management of the product lifecycle. This research assignment provides insight into how an integrated value proposition design framework can address these issues by shifting the focus of product lifecycle management from being product-centric to being customer-centric. This framework combines tools, methods and processes from a variety of disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Marketing, Project Management, and Financial Management. The application of the framework during the product lifecycle management process is that of a planning and communication tool to ensure integration between multifunctional teams to increase customer value proposition quality and decrease product time to market. This research assignment was implemented in a new product development case study within a leading Telecommunications company in South Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bestuur van ‘n produk se lewensiklus veroorsaak verskeie probleme wat gepaard gaan met die kwaliteit van produkte en die verlengde tydperk wat dit neem om produkte aan die mark bekend te stel. Hierdie navorsingswerk verduidelik hoe die geïntegreerde waarde-stelling raamwerk die probleme met betrekking tot die bestuur van produkte se lewensiklusse aanspreek. Die raamwerk verskuif die fokus van die bestuur van ‘n produk se lewensiklus, wat produk-gesentreerd is, na ‘n kliënt-gesentreerde fokus. Die raamwerk maak gebruik van tegnieke, metodes en prosesse verkry uit die dissiplines van Sisteem Ingenieurswese, Bemarking, Projek bestuur en Finansiële bestuur. Die toepassing van die raamwerk verbeter die bestuur van ‘n produk se lewensiklus deur beplanning en kommunikasie te fassiliteer tussen multi-funksionele spanne. Genoemde raamwerk bevorder die samewerking tussen multi-funksionele spanne, verbeter die waarde-stellings aan kliënte, verhoog die kwaliteit van produkte en verkort die tydperk van produk bekendstelling aan die mark. Bogenoemde navorsingswerk is geïmplementeer in ‘n vooraanstaande Telekommunikasie maatskapy in Suid-Afrika, op ‘n nuwe produkontwikkeling gevallestudie.

以往高級精品只有貴族階級才有權利配帶。時至今日，中產階級消費者如一般上班族亦開始購買精品，使得人們對於精品的消費投入逐年增加。法國的精品產業靠著出口高級時裝、首飾、化妝品等精品，每年為法國政府帶來豐沛的外匯收入。除此之外，精品產業與其他同為景氣循環產業相比，復甦力道實為有過之而無不及；因此，精品產業之高獲利成長力與強勁復甦力道成為許多其他產業所探究及效法的對象。 現存精品相關文獻鮮少文獻探討精品創新相關議題，而在探討精品消費行為的研究中，除了探討精品消費動機與知覺價值外，並未進一步探討精品新產品隨著時間的擴散，消費者購買精品之動機與消費者特性是否產生變化。因此，本研究擬採用過往多半用於高科技產業之創新擴散理論，並以精品產業龍頭A精品公司為例，試圖探討精品新產品之擴散模式為何；另外，本研究除了探討客觀時間之擴散模式，亦針對精品具有較強烈之社會影響特性，亦加入同儕情境，更深入了解主觀時間的擴散模式。最後，本研究也會針對早期精品消費者與晚期精品消費者所注重的精品知覺價值是否有所不同的現象進行研究。 由量化問卷調查與質化深度訪談之綜合分析，本研究發現：(1)精品新產品擴散模式屬於Bass模型，所有潛在的精品消費者皆可分為受到廣告影響的創新者或口碑影響模仿者兩類；(2)精品新產品擴散模式由客觀因素與主觀因素共同建構而成，除了將採用者依客觀時間分為早期與晚期，本研究另外提出客觀早期的模仿者(即主觀落後者)與客觀晚期的創新者(即主觀創新者)；(3)精品知覺價值類型與客觀購買時間的先後並無顯著差異；(4)「撞包」顧慮是由於挑剔心態與跟隨心態並存的現象，對消費者的購買決策並無實際影響力。 / Before long, only blue blood has the right to possess luxury goods. Nowadays, middle class also starts to buy luxury goods, which increases the yearly consumption of luxury goods. By exporting high class garments, accessories, make-ups and so on, luxury good industry in France yields immeasurable foreign exchange income to French goverment. Besides, the strength of recovery in luxury goods industry is much stronger than other business-cycle industries. Therefore, with high-profit and strong recovery, luxury goods industry become the benchmark of other industries. Among the existing literatures of luxury goods, few literatures discuss issues related to the innovation of luxury goods. And in the researches of luxury-goods consumer behaviors, in addition to exploring the consumer motivations and perceived values, the changes or not of consumer characteristics and motivations with time-spreading lacks further probes. Thus, based on the theory of diffusion of innovations that mostly applied to high-technology industry, this study tries to explore the new product diffusion model of luxury goods in the case of a leading luxury brand A. Moreover, owing to stronger social influencs that luxury goods characteristic of, this study not only discussing the real time periods, but also deeply look into peer sithations in order to understand the diffusion model in subjective time periods. At last, this study will explore the differences of perceived values between early adoptors and late adoptors. Under comprehensively analysis from qnantative Questionnaire surveys and in-depth interviews, findings are as followed. (1)The new product diffusion model of luxury goods is highly close to Bass model. All potential luxury-goods customers can be divided to advertisement-influenced innovators and word-of-mouth-influenced imitators. (2)New product diffusion model of luxury goods is constructed by objective factor and subjective factors. In addition to classifying adoptors into early and late according the real time period, this study proposes other classifications: objectively early imitators (subjective followers) and objectlvely late innovators (subjective innovators). (3)Perceived value of luxury goods would not significantly sway with the objective doption time. (4)The fear of having the same bag with others results from the coexisting of Snob effect and Bandwagon effect, which has no actual influences on consumption decisions.

Hybrid-electric technologies have recently been introduced into the market for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). However, challenging an established technology with a new and untried technology is difficult, also under the best conditions. Forecasting is a vital tool in product portfolio management, since it provides guidance on how much resources a firm should allocate on new innovative projects and products and when and where to enter the market. Therefore, this thesis forecasts the market penetration of hybrid HDVs in Europe by usage of innovation diffusion models – based on three different market scenarios assuming no, some and considerable incentives or legislative CO2 for HDVs. Hybrid-electric, hydraulic hybrid and flywheel hybrid vehicles are considered and an analogical approach is used based on sales data for radial tyres, disc brakes and anti-lock braking systems. The result from a non-linear regression analysis indicated that innovation diffusion models of mixed influence are capable of predicting future market demand, not only of hybrid HDVs, but also of other HDVs with new innovative technologies or solutions. Therefore, it was suggested that innovation diffusion modeling should be a standard tool in the strategic planning of a HDV firm’s all new innovative products. All market scenarios resulted in a rather low diffusion speed of hybrid HDVs during the first ten years, but the speed increased then rapidly during the next ten years such that 40-50 percent of the HDV market was penetrated in 2030. In the most hybrid-friendly scenario, the market was nearly fully penetrated after 50 years since the first introduction in 2010, while in the least hybrid-friendly scenario additional ten years was needed to fully penetrate the HDV market. The forecasts may be affected by possible pre-diffusion, the emergence of a dominant design or the diffusion acceleration effect. One of the major challenges of using innovation diffusion models for sales forecasting of hybrid HDVs, was to find appropriate and sufficient analogous sales data. Therefore, Thomas (1985) analogous approach was further developed to be more focused on finding analogous sales data from internal, external or public sources.