Bounded rationality is the study of how human cognition with limited capacity is adapted to handle the complex information structures in the environment. This thesis argues that in order to understand the bounded rationality of decision processes, it is necessary to develop decision theories that are computational process models based upon basic cognitive and perceptual mechanisms. The main goal of this thesis is to show that models of perceptual categorization based on the storage of exemplars and retrieval of similar exemplars whenever a new object is encountered (D. L. Medin & M. M. Schaffer, 1978), can be an important contribution to theories of decision making. Study I proposed, PROBEX (PROBabilities from Exemplars), a model for inferences from generic knowledge. It is a “lazy” algorithm that presumes no pre-computed abstractions. In a computer simulation it was found to be a powerful decision strategy, and it was possible to fit the model to human data in a psychologically plausible way. Study II was a theoretical investigation that found that PROBEX was very robust in conditions where the decision maker has very little information, and that it worked well even under the worst circumstances. Study III empirically tested if humans can learn to use exemplar based or one reason decision making strategies (G. Gigerenzer, P. Todd, & the ABC Research Group, 1999) where it is appropriate in a two-alternative choice task. Experiment 1 used cue structure and presentation format as independent variables, and participants easily used one reason strategies if the decision task presented the information as normal text. The participants were only able to use exemplars if they were presented as short strings of letters. Experiment 2 failed to accelerate learning of exemplar use during the decision phase, by prior exposure to exemplars in a similar task. In conclusion, this thesis supports that there are at least two modes of decision making, which are boundedly rational if they are used in the appropriate context. Exemplar strategies may, contrary to study II, only be used late in learning, and the conditions for learning need to be investigated further.

This thesis presents two classes of models of boundedly rational decision makers - one with application to finance and the other to pricing. It consists of three parts. The first part of the thesis investigates the impact of investors' boundedly rational forecasting on asset price bubbles. We present a class of models, called extrapolation-correction models, of boundedly rational investor behavior. That is, the investors in our model, quite reasonably, use data available to them, i.e. past price data, to form forecasts about future prices. We relate the model parameters to various behavioral aspects like investor memory, caution/confidence, and panic. We present the resulting dynamical system model of asset price bubbles and relate the behavior of the dynamical system to the parameters capturing investor forecasting behavior. We show that, depending on the behavioral parameters, the associated dynamical system can converge to the fundamental value, go into predictable price cycles, or go into unpredictable price cycles. In particular, we find that the greater the weight investors' forecasts put on the most recent observations, the greater the tendency for the asset prices to exhibit cycles, forming positive and negative bubbles. We also find that when forecasts are strongly affected by recent prices, the price process becomes chaotic and it becomes increasingly difficult to forecast future prices accurately. The second part of the thesis addresses the question: How do investors make their price forecasts? We present the design of an experiment where investors participate in a virtual asset market run over a computer network. During the course of the experiment, the participants report their price forecasts and enter buy and sell orders. The computer software determines the market clearing prices. Despite full disclosure of the assets' dividends and the fundamental value, the price trajectories in all three experimental sessions exhibited cycles. We calibrated various models, including rational expectations based models and the extrapolation-correction family of models presented in the first part of the thesis. The results indicate that rational expectations hypothesis does not provide an accurate model of forecast formation. Moreover, a simple one-parameter exponential smoothing model is much better at modeling forecast formation, with the extrapolation-correction models making the fit slightly better. The third part of the thesis explores a different aspect of customer rationality - that of customer impatience - and its effect on pricing of product versions. We consider a setting in which impatient customers are faced with frequent product introductions, for example, products like Apple iPhones. This raises the following questions regarding customers: Given the pricing strategy of the firm, what are the optimal buying behaviors of the customers? How does customer buying behavior change in relation to impatience? We consider two settings. In the first setting, the firm offers a trade-in price for existing customers and a higher full price for new customers. In the second setting, the firm offers the same prices to new and existing customers, however there is an introductory full price and a discounted price later in the product cycle. We model the customer's problem in these two settings and characterize their optimal actions as a function of the price parameters. We also analyze the bilevel program for the firm's pricing decisions. We see that in both settings considered there are certain well-defined regions in the price space wherein the firm's optimal decision lies. We also provide some numerical computations to study the behavior of the optimal prices as the cost per unit increases.

Il presente lavoro si è proposto di indagare il concetto di razionalità limitata nel contesto delle scelte mediche. Sono stati reclutati 80 adulti, senza una storia clinica particolare a cui è stato dapprima somministrato un test virtuale che richiedeva di prendere delle decisioni su alcuni trattamenti e, successivamente, è stata somministrata una intervista semi-strutturata per approfondire il tema della scelta. I principali risultati: in primis, le persone adottano l’uso di euristiche veloci e frugali. In particolare, le persone adottano l’euristica del “Prendi il meglio” considerando, per ogni scelta, un numero limitato di caratteristiche. In secondo luogo, l'uso di euristiche è legato a una razionalità ecologica che adatta le strategie decisionali alla struttura delle informazioni disponibili del contesto ambientale. In questo contesto, se il consiglio del o le informazioni rispetto ai rischi/effetti indesiderati sono disponibili allora essi saranno sempre valutati perché sono caratteristiche fondamentali del processo di scelta. Il consiglio del medico è espressione della fiducia tra medico e paziente. La fiducia è rappresentata da segnali semplici e onesti che il medico è capace di trasmettere e questi segnali formano un canale di comunicazione tra le persone. Infine un altro risultato riguarda la comprensione del rischio associato al consumo di un farmaco che è risultato di difficile comprensione e rappresentazione. / This research aimed at applying the concept of bounded rationality in common medical choices in order to analyse the process by which laypersons make decisions in the field of health. Eighty adults, without a particular disease history were recruited and they were asked to manage both some virtual situations of medical choices and to discuss face to face about their past experiences in medical choices.Three major findings emerged. Firstly, people often use fast and frugal heuristics. In particular, people adopt the rule of the ‘take the best” considering, for each choice, a very limited number of elements to make their decisions. Secondly, the use of heuristics is related with the principle of ecological rationality in which strategies are chosen in connection with the available information of the environmental context. In this context, if “doctor’s advice” as well as “side effects information” are available, they will be always considered because they represent fundamental features of the decision making process. Doctor’s advice is expression of the trust between patient-doctor relationship. Trust is represented by simple and honest signals that the doctor communicates and these signals form an unconscious channel of communication between people. Thirdly, we found that risks associated with treatments are not easy to be conceived by laypersons. It was that people have not in mind a clear definition of the risk implied by medicines and treatment and they show, in average, a scarce interest in risk comprehension.

De senaste åren kan vi se ett ökat intresse för lärande i organisationer och kompetensutveckling. Detta menar många forskare och beslutsfattare är en väsentlig del för produktivitet, konkurrenskraft och innovation. ( Kock, Gill & Ellström, 2008) Innovationer är vanligtvis en frukt av flera olika personers kreativa förmåga, deras samarbete, erfarenheter och kompletterande kunskaper (Leonard & Swap, 1999). 96,3% av företagen i Sverige är småföretag (www.scb.se). Småföretag och entreprenörer ses som särskilt viktiga för sysselsättning och tillväxt i näringslivet. Trots många initiativ, saknas lösningar i samhället som är väl anpassade till deras speciella behov och förutsättningar. (http://www.regeringen.se). Denna examensuppsats är en kvalitativ studie bestående av semistrukturerade intervjuer som syftar till att undersöka ett kompetensutvecklingsprojekt för småföretagare, vilket syftar till att stödja småföretagares utveckling genom att möjliggöra samverkan och kompetensutveckling. Hansson (2005) beskriver kompetensutveckling som ett mål att förse kompetens till företaget. Dalin (1997) och Hansson (2005) beskriver samverkan som en aspekt av kompetens. För att småföretag ska kunna frodas bör de utveckla externa relationer med andra aktörer som har förmågan att stötta företaget i dess företagsutvecklande. Ska småföretagare kunna flytta sina positioner mot ökad framgång och lönsamhet krävs externa resurser. (Street & Ann-Frances, 2007) Under intervjuerna framkommer respondenternas upplevelser av samverkan under projektets gång och upplevelsen av möjlighet till kommande samverkan som delad. Några av respondenterna uttrycker att samverkan har till viss del stärkt de band som redan funnits genom att mötet har gett en större inblick i de andra företagens verksamhet. Enligt hälften av respondenterna upplevs de för företaget specifika kompetensutvecklingsaktiviteterna som företaget varit i behov av som det viktigaste bidraget till verksamheten. / Over the last couple of years an increased interest of learning in organizations and competence development has been noticed. Many researchers and decitionmakers are of the opinion that this is an important part of productivity, competitiveness and innovation. (Kock, Gill & Ellström, 2008) Innovations are usually the fruit of several individuals creative ability, their cooperation, experiences and their additional knowledge (Leonard & Swap, 1999). 96.3% of the companies in Sweden are small business.(www.scb.se) Small business and entrepreneurs are seen as especially importance of employment and the growth of the economy in spite of many initiatives there is a lack of solutions in the society that are well adjusted to the specific needs and prerequisites (http://www.regeringen.se). This essay is a qualitative study consisting of semi structured interviews with the purpose of exanimating a project of competence development with the aim of supporting small business development through enabling interaction and competence development. Hansson (2005) describes competence development as an objective for providing. Dalin (1997) and Hansson (2005) describe interaction as an aspect of competence. On order for small business to be able to thrive external relations with other businesses with the ability to support the company in its development should be developed. In order for small businesses to be more successful and profitable external resources are needed. (Street & Ann-Frances, 2007) During the interviews it was revealed that the respondents experiences of interaction during the course of the project and the experience of the possibilities for future interaction was parted. Some of the respondents expresses that the interaction to some extent has strengthened existing bonds of interaction by enlarged insight in the other companies business. According to half of the respondents the specific activities of competence development witch the respondent was in need of is experienced as the most important contribution to the business.

Der Begriff ``Agent'' hat sich als eine sehr nützliche Abstraktion erwiesen, um verschiedene Problembereiche auf eine intuitive und natürliche Art und Weise zu konzeptualisieren. Intelligente Agenten haben daher Anwendung gefunden in verschiedenen Teilbereichen der Informatik. Zur Modellierung werden intelligente Agenten meist als intentionale Systeme aufgefaßt und mit Hilfe von mentalistischen Begriffen wie Wissen, Glauben (oder Überzeugung), Wunsch, Pflicht, Intention usw. beschrieben. Unter diesen mentalen Begriffen gehören die epistemischen Begriffe (d.h., Wissen und Glauben) zu den wichtigsten und wurden auch am intensivsten untersucht. Zur Modellierung von Wissen und Glauben werden in der Regel modale epistemische Logiken verwendet. Solche Systeme sind aber nicht geeignet, um ressourcenbeschränkte Agenten zu beschreiben, weil sie zu starke Annahmen bezüglich der Rationalität von Agenten machen. Zum Beispiel wird angenommen, daß Agenten alle logischen Wahrheiten sowie alle Konsequenzen seines Wissens kennen. Dieses Problem ist bekannt als das Problem der logischen Allwissenheit (``logical omniscience problem''). Da alle Agenten grundsätzlich nur über begrenzte Ressourcen (wie z.B. Zeit, Information, Speicherplatz) verfügen, können sie nur eine begrenzte Menge von Informationen verarbeiten. Daher müssen alternative Modelle entwickelt werden, um Agenten realistisch modellieren zu können (siehe Kapitel 2). Daß modale epistemische Logik für die Formalisierung des ressourcenbeschränkten Schließens (``resource-bounded reasoning'') nicht geeignet ist, wird als ein offenes Problem der Agententheorien anerkannt. Es gibt bisher aber keine brauchbaren Alternativen zur Modallogik. Die meisten Ansätze zur Lösung des logischen Allwissenheitsproblems versuchen, Wissen und Glauben mit Hilfe schwacher Modallogiken zu beschreiben. Solche Versuche sind nicht befriedigend, da sie eine willkürliche Einschränkung der Rationalität der Agenten zur Folge haben (siehe Kapitel 3). Mein Ziel ist es, einen Rahmen für das ressourcenbeschränktes Schließen über Wissen und Glauben zu entwickeln. Damit soll eine solide Grundlage für Theorien intelligenter Agenten geschaffen werden. Als Nebenergebnis wird das logische Allwissenheitsproblem auf eine sehr intuitive Art und Weise gelöst: obwohl Agenten rational sind und alle logischen Schlußregeln anwenden können, sind sie nicht logisch allwissend, weil ihnen nicht genügend Ressourcen zu Verfügung stehen, um alle logischen Konsequenzen ihres Wissens zu ziehen. Im Kapitel 4 wird eine Reihe von Logiken vorgestellt, die den Begriff des expliziten Wissens formalisieren. Es wird eine Lösung des Problems der logischen Allwissenheit der epistemischen Logik vorgeschlagen, die die Rationalität der Agenten nicht willkürlich einschränkt. Der Grundgedanke dabei ist der folgende. Ein Agent kennt die logischen Konsequenzen seines Wissens nur dann, wenn er sie tatsächlich hergeleitet hat. Wenn ein Agent alle Prämissen einer gültigen Schlußregel kennt, kennt er nicht notwendigerweise die Konklusion: er kennt sie nur nach der Anwendung der Regel. Wenn er den Schluß nicht ziehen kann, z.B. weil er nicht die notwendigen Ressourcen dazu hat, wird sein Wissen nicht um diese herleitbare Information erweitert. Die Herleitung neuer Informationen wird als die Ausführung mentaler Handlungen aufgefaßt. Mit Hilfe einer Variante der dynamischen Logik können diese Handlungen beschrieben werden. Im Kapitel 5 werden Systeme für das ressourcenbeschränkte Schließen über Wissen und Glauben entwickelt, die auch quantitative Bedingungen über die Verfügbarkeit von Ressourcen modellieren können. Mit Hilfe dieser Logiken können Situationen beschrieben werden, wo Agenten innerhalb einer bestimmten Zeitspanne entscheiden müssen, welche Handlungen sie ausführen sollen. Der Ansatz besteht darin, epistemische Logik mit Komplexitätstheorie zu verbinden. Mit Hilfe einer Komplexitätsanalyse kann ein Agent feststellen, ob ein bestimmtes Problem innerhalb vorgegebener Zeit lösbar ist. Auf der Grundlage dieses Wissens kann er dann die für die Situation geeignete Entscheidung treffen. Damit ist es gelungen, eine direkte Verbindung zwischen dem Wissen eines Agenten und der Verfügbarkeit seiner Ressourcen herzustellen. / One of the principal goals of agent theories is to describe realistic, implementable agents, that is, those which have actually been constructed or are at least in principle implementable. That goal cannot be reached if the inherent resource-boundedness of agents is not treated correctly. Since the modal approach to epistemic logic is not suited to formalize resource-bounded reasoning, the issue of resource-boundedness remains one of the main foundational problems of any agent theory that is developed on the basis of modal epistemic logic. My work is an attempt to provide theories of agency with a more adequate epistemic foundation. It aims at developing theories of mental concepts that make much more realistic assumptions about agents than other theories. The guiding principle of my theory is that the capacities attributed to agents must be empirically verifiable, that is, it must be possible to construct artificial agents which satisfy the specifications determined by the theory. As a consequence, the unrealistic assumption that agents have unlimited reasoning capacities must be rejected. To achieve the goal of describing resource-bounded agents accurately, the cost of reasoning must be taken seriously. In the thesis I have developed a framework for modeling the relationship between knowledge, reasoning, and the availability of resources. I have argued that the correct form of an axiom for epistemic logic should be: if an agent knows all premises of a valid inference rule and if he performs the right reasoning, then he will know the conclusion as well. Because reasoning requires resources, it cannot be safely assumed that the agent can compute his knowledge if he does not have enough resources to perform the required reasoning. I have demonstrated that on the basis of that idea, the problems of traditional approaches can be avoided and rich epistemic logics can be developed which can account adequately for our intuitions about knowledge.

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p. 1-174 / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2013-03-19T17:46:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 11114.pdf: 1715038 bytes, checksum: 8250a093019aa65753b7de3ff892e5d3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima(tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2013-04-12T18:55:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 11114.pdf: 1715038 bytes, checksum: 8250a093019aa65753b7de3ff892e5d3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-04-12T18:55:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 11114.pdf: 1715038 bytes, checksum: 8250a093019aa65753b7de3ff892e5d3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / A análise do Processo de Contratação Estruturada de Serviços é um estudo de caso da BRASKEM - indústria pertencente ao setor petroquímico nacional, com estabelecimentos fabris em quatro estados brasileiros, inclusive no estado da Bahia -, em cuja porção inicial desenvolve um exame do arcabouço teórico da Nova Economia das Instituições focada em seu alicerce, a Economia dos Custos de Transação, visualizando a definição das estruturas de governança e desse modo estabelecendo a revisão de literatura necessária ao entendimento almejado. Considera um lapso temporal dividido em duas fases, a primeira delas com início em 1998 e indo até 2000, ainda como a COPENE, e a segunda de 2002 a 2004, entre as quais observou-se um processo de integração vertical a partir da fusão de empresas de primeira e segunda gerações da indústria petroquímica para a formação da BRASKEM, período no qual se procura mostrar a importância das estruturas de governança presentes em ambas as fases, fundamentais para promover a redução de custos de transação, além de obter economias estruturais relevantes no sentido de viabilizar a agilização dos resultados consistentes e sustentáveis demandados pelas organizações contemporâneas. Espera-se que a abordagem deste trabalho possa lançar foco à oportunidade que a concentração das atividades estruturadas de Contratação de Serviços assim como a adequada gestão destes pode representar, ao proporcionarem resultados positivos na busca por competitividade, mostrando-se, de fato, uma contribuição neste particular, seja no crivo das decisões empresariais ou no tocante à evolução dos estudos acadêmicos. / Salvador

abstract: Recently, automation, shared use, and electrification are proposed and viewed as the “three revolutions” in the future transportation sector to significantly relieve traffic congestion, reduce pollutant emissions, and increase transportation system sustainability. Motivated by the three revolutions, this research targets on the passenger-focused scheduled transportation systems, where (1) the public transit systems provide high-quality ridesharing schedules/services and (2) the upcoming optimal activity planning systems offer the best vehicle routing and assignment for household daily scheduled activities. The high quality of system observability is the fundamental guarantee for accurately predicting and controlling the system. The rich information from the emerging heterogeneous data sources is making it possible. This research proposes a modeling framework to systemically account for the multi-source sensor information in urban transit systems to quantify the estimated state uncertainty. A system of linear equations and inequalities is proposed to generate the information space. Also, the observation errors are further considered by a least square model. Then, a number of projection functions are introduced to match the relation between the unique information space and different system states, and its corresponding state estimate uncertainties are further quantified by calculating its maximum state range. In addition to optimizing daily operations, the continuing advances in information technology provide precious individual travel behavior data and trip information for operational planning in transit systems. This research also proposes a new alternative modeling framework to systemically account for boundedly rational decision rules of travelers in a dynamic transit service network with tight capacity constraints. An agent-based single-level integer linear formulation is proposed and can be effectively by the Lagrangian decomposition. The recently emerging trend of self-driving vehicles and information sharing technologies starts creating a revolutionary paradigm shift for traveler mobility applications. By considering a deterministic traveler decision making framework, this research addresses the challenges of how to optimally schedule household members’ daily scheduled activities under the complex household-level activity constraints by proposing a set of integer linear programming models. Meanwhile, in the microscopic car-following level, the trajectory optimization of autonomous vehicles is also studied by proposing a binary integer programming model. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering 2018

This article shows the relationship between market and firms through the theory of transactional cost and the relationsthat determine the structure and boundaries of the firm. Using the assumptions from the transactional cost approach,this article proposes some variables that determine optimal organizational structures and their boundaries. / Este artículo muestra la vinculación entre mercado y empresas por medio del enfoque de los costos de transacción, y lasrelaciones que influyen en la determinación de la estructura y los límites de la empresa. Mediante el uso de los supuestosde la teoría de los costos transaccionales, el artículo propone algunas variables que determinan estructuras organizacionalesóptimas y sus respectivos límites.

This thesis formalizes a model of bounded rationality in extensive-form games called game-playing schemata. In this model, the strategies are repre- sented by a structure consisting of a deterministic finite automaton and two computational functions. The automaton represents a structured memory of the player, while the functions represent the ability of the player to identify efficient abstractions of the game. Together, the schema is a realization of a pure strategy which can be implemented by a player in order to play a given game. The thesis shows how to construct correctly playing schema for every pure strategy in any multi-player extensive-form game with perfect recall and how to evaluate its complexity. It proves that equilibria in schemata strategies always exist and computing them is PPAD-hard. Moreover, for a class of efficiently representable strategies, computing MAXPAY-EFCE can be done in polynomial time. 1