Price Level Targeting with Imperfect Rationality: A Heuristic Approach Vojtěch Molnár Abstract The thesis compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model without rational expectations hypothesis. Economic agents instead form their expectations using heuristics-they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of the price level targeting model are examined-the agents form expectations either about price level or about inflation, which is ex ante not equivalent because of sequential nature of the model. In addition, several formulations of the forecasting rules are considered. According to the results, price level targeting is preferred in the case with expectations created about price level under the baseline calibration; but it is sensitive to some model parameters. Furthermore, when expectations are created about inflation, price level targeting over time loses credibility and leads to divergence of the economy. On the other hand, inflation targeting model functions stably. Therefore, while potential benefits of price level targeting have been confirmed under certain assumptions, the results suggest that inflation targeting constitutes significantly more robust choice for monetary policy.

Beslut kan tas genom att följa en rationell modell eller på irrationella grunder. Vid beslut baserade på irrationella grunder kan beslutet tas utifrån personens intuition vilken är baserad på dennes tidigare erfarenheter. Individen kan även påstå att de följer sin intuition när de i själva verket påverkas av sina känslor. En problematisk detalj i att både som forskare samt beslutsfattare analysera ifall ett rationellt beslut tas är att hjärnan i själva verket tagit ett beslut flera sekunder innan det når medvetandet. Det innebär att det i verkligheten i stort sett är omöjligt att veta ifall ett rationellt beslut tagits. Syftet med uppsatsen är att genom en enkät studera hur 47 beslutsfattare i något av E-handelsstaden Borås medlemsföretag förklarar processen från idé till beslut. Utifrån svaren från enkäten tolkar vi ifall respondenterna beskriver sin beslutsprocess utifrån en rationell modell. Analysen sker genom att utgå från relevant beslutsteori och litteratur som är sammanställd i referensramen. Med hjälp av vår studie kan vi dra slutsatsen att det finns en skillnad mellan män och kvinnor i hur rationella de beskriver sig. I en jämförelse av frågorna kan det utläsas att kvinnorna visar sig vara mer rationella än männen i sex av nio fall. Både männen och kvinnorna är inte fullt rationella, utan i genomsnitt beskriver de sig som begränsat rationella. Det innebär att de inser att det inte är möjligt att ta fullt rationella beslut på grund av yttre faktorer som kan påverka beslutsprocessen. / Decisions can be made by following a rational model or by irrational bases. When decisions is based on irrational grounds the decision can follow the person's intuition, which is based on earlier experience. The individual might say they follow their intuition but in reality they are affected by their feelings. A problematic detail both for scientists and decision-makers when trying to analyze if they made a rational decision is that the brain actually have made a decision several seconds before it reaches your mind. In reality this means that it is almost impossible to know if a decision really is rational.The purpose of this essay is to study 47 decision-makers that are working in companies which are members of E-handelsstaden Borås. We have studied the decision-makers with the help of a questionnaire that shows how they describe the decision-making process from an idea to a decision. The answers from the questionnaire helped us to understand if they described their decision-making process as being based on a rational model. The analysis is done by reading relevant decision theory and literature which is compiled in the frame of reference.With our study we can come to the conclusion that there's a difference between men and women in how rational they describe themselves. In a comparison of the questions it shows that women describe themselves more rational than men in six out of nine cases. Both men and women aren't fully rational, in fact in average they are bounded rational. It means that they realize it's not possible to make fully rational decisions because of external factors which can affect the decision process.Note that the study is written in Swedish.

In order to control the energy consumed by vehicles for crossing signalized intersections, this project designs and tests a speed guidance energy-saving strategy for signalized intersections, taking drivers’ bounded rationality into consideration. This research achieves speed guidance by developing theoretical foundation of speed guidance, dividing scenarios for practise of speed guidance, and calculating optimal trajectories for vehicles. As for influence of bounded rationality, this research categorizes all drivers into three different types: aggressive drivers, normal drivers and conservative drivers. Numerical simulation of this research is focuses on a single intersection, with three traffic saturation level, represented by 346, 519 and 692 vehicles per hour. Considering the foreseeable popularization of electric cars (EV) in the close future, proportion of EV is also taken as a variable, and experiments are carried separately at three milestones of EV proportion: 0%, 30%, and 60%. The findings suggest that aggressive drivers benefit the most from the speed guidance in energy saving, and speed guidance does lest benefit to normal drivers. Both drivers’ bounded rationality and high traffic volume could lead to increase of energy consumption, while providing specifically modified speed guidance is able to achieve satisfying reductions to these effects. With increase of EVs’ proportion in the traffic flow and drop of overall energy consumption, effect of the guidance becomes comparatively worse than the previous non-EV performance of 7% to 11%, while remaining to be effective to cut off overall energy consumption by 5% to 8%. This research is able to improve normal speed guidance with more accurate and practicable guidance information for drivers in current traffic environment.

No description available.

Parliamentary research services provide parliamentarians with qualified and politically neutral knowledge on day-to-day basis. Because this is an understudied phenomenon, the aim of the study is to investigate how parliamentarians use research services from the perspective of evidence based policy making. The study was conducted with semi-structured interviews with Swedish parliamentarians and party employees of the Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Swedish Democrats. An interview was also conducted with a representative from the Swedish Research Service. The results show that the Swedish Research Service, as an incremental knowledge producer, is used by parliamentarians to reduce insecurity, get cues and assessments and to appear legitimate. It has also been shown that there is a difference between the parties regarding search activities. The study contributes to the policy sciences by introducing an ideal type on how parliamentarians use parliamentary research services in the policy process.

This study investigates the concessioning of the commuter rail subsystem, which was discussed in the White Paper on National Transport Policy. The theoretical divide between private and public sector enterprise is investigated in terms of a principal-agent approach. The hypothesis underlying the fundamental shift of services traditionally provided by government enterprise to the private sector is X-efficiency gains under a concession regime. There are, however, potential challenges under a concession regime that must be anticipated. Challenges are identified in terms of an incomplete contract approach with its underpinning source manifested in a bounded rationality concept. The study investigates how rail concessionaires are regulated under a concession regime from an economics perspective and various price mechanisms are explored. The study provides strategies to deal with challenges under a rail concession regime with a view to minimising conflicts that will arise between the parties involved in a concession agreement. / Transport, Logistics & Tourism / M.Comm.(Transport Economics)

No description available.

Dans les régions rurales, la gestion de l'eau induit des changements techniques et des transformations des pratiques agricoles auxquels font face les agriculteurs. Leurs comportements mitigés comprennent à la fois un désir d'innovation et un attachement au terroir à travers des usages, des pratiques et des représentations. Cet attachement identitaire a été souvent considéré comme obstacle à l'introduction de nouvelles techniques et non comme opportunité à saisir. Le présent travail, fondé sur le cas de Diar Hojjej (zone côtière du Cap Bon, Tunisie), se propose, en tenant compte de l'identité du territoire, de comprendre dans quelle mesure l’entrepreneuriat rural peut constituer un moteur pour porter une zone à contrainte environnementale forte – l’eau d’irrigation- vers un développement agricole durable. L'identité du territoire serait-elle uniquement un frein à l'entreprenariat rural? Et quel serait le modèle d'entreprenariat le plus pertinent? [etc.] / In rural areas, water management induces changes in technologies and in agricultural practices that face farmers. Farmers’ behaviors include both a desire for innovation and a land attachment through local customs, practices and representations. This identity attachment has often been regarded as an obstacle to the introduction of new techniques rather than an opportunity to be seized. This work, based on the case of Diar Hojjej (a coastal area of Cap Bon, Tunisia) aims to understand how rural entrepreneurship can be an engine to convey a strong environmental constraint area (water irrigation) to sustainable agricultural development, while taking into account the territory’s identity. The territory’s identity would it only be an obstacle to rural entrepreneurship? And what would be the most relevant model of entrepreneurship? [etc.]

Cette thèse a pour objet l'évaluation du risque de crédit par une approche comportementale dans un contexte d'information asymétrique et de rationalité limitée. Nous cherchons à travers cette analyse, à concilier les « experts métiers » et les statisticiens, en intégrant le comportement humain dans la conception des outils quantitatifs d'évaluation du risque de crédit, en vue d'optimisation de la gestion de ce risque.L'évaluation du risque de crédit est basée sur des modèles et techniques statistiques de plus en plus avancées. Nous citons à titre d'exemple les modèles du Crédit Metrics et JP Morgan, le modèle KMV et le modèle Crédit Portfolio de Mekinsey ou encore les modèles de scoring introduits pour évaluer la qualité du risque des emprunteurs. Plusieurs travaux soulignent l'intérêt de ces modèles quantitatifs. En effet, Scot FRAME et al, ont montré que le recours aux modèles de scoring contribue effectivement à réduire le coût d'information dans les grandes banques américaines. Les résultats de ces modèles dépendent de la réalisation des facteurs de risque spécifiques à chaque emprunteur et de facteurs de risque systémique. Cependant, la crise financière actuelle a mis en lumière la défaillance de ces modèles, aussi bien les modèles théoriques de notation que les modèles opérationnels utilisés par les praticiens, dans l'évaluation du risque de crédit. Toutes ces constructions n'ont pas su intégrer parfaitement l'ensemble de l'information et traiter la complexité d'interactions entre les variables déterminant le risque car elles sont basées sur des techniques purement statistiques qui ne savent représenter que des relations linéaires entre le risque de défaut et les variables qui en sont à l'origine sans prendre en compte le comportement du gestionnaire du risque crédit, dans l'optimisation de sa gestion. Etant données les limites de l'approche quantitative, nous avons convergé vers une approche comportementale qui concilie les techniques statistiques et le comportement humain basée sur la prise en compte et la validation collective des règles de décision émergeant des discussions et confrontations. Cette approche comportementale qui prend en compte la rationalité des décideurs à travers un modèle expert nous permettra d'une part de construire un cadre d'analyse normatif permettant d'identifier et d'évaluer le risque de crédit et d'autre part intégrer ces règles dans les systèmes de décisions opérationnels.Notre recherche a un intérêt multiple. Elle apporte un éclairage théorique sur l'optimisation de la décision des banques, dans un contexte d'incertitude, à travers un modèle portant à la fois sur le caractère quantitatif des modèles d'évaluation du risque de crédit et le comportement humain. L'évaluation du risque de crédit à travers notre approche permettra également de déterminer le montant de capital économique nécessaire à la couverture du risque de crédit. Ainsi, elle permettra aux banques de mettre en place une allocation optimale des fonds propres et une tarification adéquate des crédits basée sur une évaluation précise du risque de crédit. Ce qui porte un grand intérêt aux banques et aux clients aussi. / This thesis focuses on the assessment of credit risk with a behavioral approach in a context of asymmetric information and bounded rationality. We seek through this analysis, to reconcile the "business experts" and statisticians, incorporating human behavior into the design of tools for quantitative assessment of credit risk in order to optimize the management of this risk.The assessment of credit risk is based on models and statistical techniques more advanced. We cite as examples of models JP Morgan Credit Metrics, model and KMV's Portfolio Credit Model Mekinsey or scoring models introduced to assess the quality of the risk of borrowers. Several studies underline the importance of these quantitative models. Indeed, Scot FRAME and AL showed that the use of scoring models is effective in reducing the cost of information in large U.S. banks. The results of these models depend on the realization of the risk factors specific to each borrower and systemic risk factors. However, the current financial crisis has highlighted the failure of these models, both theoretical models that rating business models used by practitioners in assessing credit risk. All these constructions have not been able to integrate fully all the information and treat the complexity of interactions between variables determining the risk because they are based on purely statisti cal techniques who can represent the linear relationships between risk default and the variables that are at the origin without taking into account the behavior of credit risk manager, in optimizing its management.Given the limitations of the quantitative approach, we have converged on a behavioural approach that combines statistical techniques and human behaviour based on consideration and validation of collective decision rules emerging from the discussions and confrontations. This behavioural approach that takes into account the rationality of decision makers through an expert model we will firstly build a normative framework for analysis to identify and assess credit risk and also integrate these rules systems in operational decisions.Our research has a substantial multiple. It sheds light on the theoretical optimization of the decision of the banks in a context of uncertainty through a model bearing both on the quantitative assessment models of credit risk and human behavior. The assessment of credit risk through our approach will also determine the amount of capital necessary to cover credit risk. Thus, it will allow banks to establish an optimal allocation of capital and adequate pricing of loans based on an accurate assessment of credit risk. This brings great interest to banks and customers too.

In this thesis we study decentralized dynamics for non-cooperative and cooperative games. The dynamics are behaviorally motivated and assume that very little information is available about other players' preferences, actions, or payoffs. For example, this is the case in markets where exchanges are frequent and the sheer size of the market hinders participants from learning about others' preferences. We consider learning dynamics that are based on trial-and-error and aspiration-based heuristics. Players occasionally try to increase their performance given their current payoffs. If successful they stick to the new action, otherwise they revert to their old action. We also study a dynamic model of social influence based on findings in sociology and psychology that people have a propensity to conform to others' behavior irrespective of the payoff consequences. We analyze the dynamics with a particular focus on two questions: How long does it take to reach equilibrium and what are the stability and welfare properties of the equilibria that the process selects? These questions are at the core of understanding which equilibrium concepts are robust in environments where players have little information about the game and the high rationality assumptions of standard game theory are not very realistic. Methodologically, this thesis builds on game theoretic techniques and prominent solution concepts such as the Nash equilibrium for non-cooperative games and the core for cooperative games, as well as refinement concepts like stochastic stability. The proofs rely on mathematical techniques from random walk theory and integer programming.