In September 2017, Luleå Energi introduced a new price model on district heating for their enterprise customers with the intention to create stronger incentives for energy efficiency measures, and provide price signals that better correspond to the underlying production costs. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether the intentions of Luleå Energi has been fulfilled, not the least in the form of improved energy efficiency among the affected enterprises. This thesis also provides a theoretical assessment of the new price model through conducting a literature review. The empirical analysis builds on theories addressing issues such as bounded rationality, profit maximizing firms, uncertainty, and imperfect information. The results show that the new price model may have been hindered by bounded rationality amongst the enterprise customers, and the overall low price level of district heating services in Luleå. Results also show that even if the new price model is fairly good at creating incentives, it could probably become more effective if the effect price component were based on enterprise customers current effect usage rather than the enterprise customers effect usage during the previous winter season. / I september 2017 introducerade Luleå Energi en ny prismodell för deras fjärrvärme tjänster gentemot företagskunder med intentionen att skapa starkare incitament för energieffektiviseringsåtgärder och förse marknaden med prissignaler som motsvarar de underliggande produktionskostnaderna. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida Luleå Energi’s intentioner har blivit uppfyllda, inte minst i form av energieffektiviseringsåtgärder. Studien kommer också att, med hjälp av en litteraturstudie, genomföra en teoretisk bedömning av den nya prismodellen. Studien applicerar teorier som begränsad rationalitet, vinstmaximerande företag, osäkerhet och ofullständig information. Resultaten visar att den nya prismodellen eventuellt hindras av begränsad rationalitet hos kunderna, och den överlag låga prisnivån på fjärrvärme i Luleå kommun. Resultaten visar också att även om den nya prismodellen är någorlunda bra på att skapa incitament så skulle den troligen kunna bli effektivare genom att basera effektpriskomponenten på företagskundernas nuvarande effektanvändning istället för företagskundernas effektanvändning under den föregående vintersäsongen.

Die vorliegende Dissertation untersucht, wie Menschen Urteile und Entscheidungen in moralischen Situationen unter Unsicherheit treffen. In theoretischer Hinsicht wird Verhalten in moralischen Situationen aus der Perspektive begrenzter und ökologischer Rationalität analysiert, die das Zusammenspiel zwischen Kognition und der Struktur der Umwelt betont. Empirisch ist das Ziel, moralische Urteile und Verhalten unter epistemischen Bedingungen zu untersuchen, denen Menschen in der realen Welt begegnen. Das erste Projekt diskutiert aus der Perspektive ökologischer Rationalität wie das Zusammenspiel von Heuristiken und Umwelt hilft, moralisches Verhalten zu verstehen, das inkonsistent erscheint, solange es durch Charaktereigenschaften erklärt wird. Aus dieser Perspektive ist es entscheidend, soziale Umwelten zu untersuchen, da Urteile und Verhalten in moralischen Situationen oft nicht durch speziell moralische Regeln sondern durch moralisch neutrale, soziale Heuristiken entstehen können, die den Zusammenhalt sozialer Gruppen fördern. Das zweite Projekt untersucht empirisch Entscheidungen in sozialen Dilemmata. Die Kernfrage ist, wie Kooperation durch den Risikograd geprägt wird, sowie durch die Art, wie Risikoinformationen erworben werden (durch Beschreibung oder Erfahrung), im Vergleich zu nicht-sozialen Situationen mit gleichem Risiko. Kooperation variierte systematisch mit dem Risikograd, aber wie Informationen erworben wurden war nur in den nicht-sozialen Situationen relevant. Prozessdaten und Teilnehmerberichte legen nahe, dass diese Diskrepanz auf Entscheidungsprozessen beruhen könnte, in denen Erwartungen über das Verhaltens anderer sowie die Höhe der Verdienste wichtiger sind als deren Wahrscheinlichkeit. Das dritte Projekt vergleicht Urteile in moralischen Dilemmata, in denen der Verlauf der Ereignisse noch ungewiss ist (Vorschau), mit Situationen, in denen bereits sicher ist, ob negative Nebeneffekte auftreten oder nicht (Rückschau). Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen Rückschaufehler in moralischen Urteilen sowie bei der Wahrscheinlichkeitseinschätzung der Nebeneffekte. Der Unterschied zwischen moralischen Urteilen unter Sicherheit und Unsicherheit wirft die Frage auf, inwieweit sich empirische Ergebnisse generalisieren lassen, die auf den üblicherweise untersuchten moralischen Dilemmata basieren, wie z.B. den „Trolley“-Fällen, in denen alles mit Sicherheit feststeht. / In this dissertation I investigate how people make judgments and decisions in moral situations under uncertainty. Theoretically, behavior in moral situations is analyzed from the perspective of bounded and ecological rationality, which emphasizes the interplay between cognition and the structure of the environment. Empirically, the goal is to investigate moral judgment and behavior under epistemic conditions people encounter in the real world. The first project discusses from the perspective of ecological rationality how the interaction of heuristics and the environment helps explaining moral behavior that appears inconsistent from accounts referring to characteristics of the individual. This view also emphasizes the importance of studying social environments, as judgment and behavior in moral situations under uncertainty may often not result from specifically moral rules but instead from morally neutral social heuristics which serve the coherence of social groups. The second project empirically examines decisions in social dilemmas. The key question was how cooperation is shaped by different levels of risk and by the way information about risk is acquired (from description or from experience), compared to nonsocial situations with equivalent risks. Cooperation systematically varied with different levels of risk, yet the way in which information was acquired only mattered in nonsocial situations. Process data and self-reports indicated that this discrepancy may have resulted from decision processes that are more sensitive to expectations about others’ behavior and the size of rewards than to reward probabilities. The third project compared judgments in moral dilemmas when the course of events is still uncertain (foresight) with situations when it was already certain whether negative side-effects did or did not occur (hindsight). Results showed a hindsight effect for moral judgments, as well as for probability estimates of negative side-effects. As moral judgments differed under certainty and uncertainty, this raises concerns about generalizing empirical results from commonly investigated moral dilemmas, such as the “trolley” cases, in which everything is certain.

La part de l’irrationnel dans les processus de sélection des futurs dirigeants des grandes entreprises françaises. Cette thèse explore la part d’irrationalité intervenant dans les processus de sélection des futurs dirigeants français. Examinant les profils des dirigeants français du début du 21ème siècle, elle souligne la persistance d’une doxa cartésienne, c’est-à-dire la croyance en l’autorité de la conscience et de la raison dans la détection, la sélection ou la génération d’élites et plus particulièrement de dirigeants dans les organisations, réalisant en particulier un biais de sélection sociale précoce pour l’accès à la direction des grandes entreprises. Combinant les apports des théories de l’agence, des échelons supérieurs, et de la rationalité limitée, ce travail construit une vision intégrative des enjeux et paramètres de la sélection des futurs dirigeants à plusieurs niveaux (individus, systèmes, réseaux, organisation, culture), et analyse comment des processus rationnels peuvent être modifiés par des formes d’irrationalité, des premiers moments de détection et de fabrique des talents à celle, à la fois plus symbolique et signifiante, de la dirigeance. Le cadre conceptuel du leader transcendant permet de représenter une vision intégrative du leadership, et d’explorer les « nouvelles » qualités que les processus de sélection devront identifier, illustrant l’inadéquation des processus traditionnels aux enjeux des entreprises modernes. Ce travail met en lumière la nécessité de réévaluer les pratiques de la sélection des dirigeants au travers d’une rationalité procédurale plus en adéquation avec la réalité opératoire, à la fois sur le plan de la rationalité sous-jacente (les valeurs et critères du leadership), de ses outils (les méthodes d’évaluation), et de son objet (une articulation intégrative et continue du développement et de la sélection assumant une part d’irrationnel). / The purpose of this research work is to investigate how irrationality plays a significant role in selecting top executives in French corporates. Upon an in-depth review of the making of top executives in France at the beginning of the 21st century, it appears that a Cartesian rationale still prevails, based on the sheer belief that conscience and reason must be the unique dimensions used in selecting, promoting, and thus, perpetuating elites, from the early school years to the appointment of the C-suite in large organisations. Three theories are central in this research work: the agency theory, the upper echelon theory, as well as the bounded rationality theory. Combining them in an integrative conceptual framework allows to understand how strong rational patterns might be affected by forms and mechanisms of irrationality all along the process of identifying and developing future leaders to the more significant moment when they are appointed. Ultimately, the outcome of this research work shows that the model of « transcendent leadership » seems more effective than others to address the challenges of identifying and selecting executives in modern organisations. This leads to examining how to build more robust systems of executive selection at three levels of progress: (a) underlying values and patterns of leadership, (b) assessment tools and processes and (c) conscious acceptance of irrationality as a significant part of talent and executive spotting and development.

In der betriebswirtschaftlichen Realität werden riskante Entscheidungen meistens nach vorherigen Gewinn- oder Verlusterfahrungen getroffen und empirische Beobachtungen legen nahe, dass vorherige derartige Erfahrungen das aktuelle Risikoverhalten beeinflussen. Da dieser Umstand in den existierenden Ansätzen der normativen und deskriptiven Spieltheorie bisher jedoch nicht abgebildet wird, beschäftigt sich diese Arbeit zunächst mit der Erarbeitung der theoretischen Grundlagen für das Verhalten nach entsprechenden Erfahrungen in riskanten Entscheidungssituationen mit und ohne strategische Interaktion. Dabei wird für Einpersonenspiele das gesamte Framework der Kumulativen Prospekttheorie um einen "Aggregationsaxiom" erweitert und es werden anreizkompatible Mechanismen abgeleitet, die in zwei experimentellen Studien überprüft werden. Die Aggregationshypothese konnte dabei bestätigt werden, wenn auch die Risikowahrnehmung eher im Einklang mit normativen Ansätzen und nicht mit der Kumulativen Prospekttheorie zu stehen scheint. Für Mehrpersonenspiele wurde der klassische Ansatz um den Aggregationsaspekt, eine Auszahlungstransformation gemäß der Kumulativen Prospekttheorie und um die Annahme der Sozialen Projektion erweitert. Die Verhaltensprognosen für zwei einfache Koordinationsspiele resultieren dann insbesondere aus den beiden Verfeinerungskriterien "Risikodominanz" und "Perfektheit" der allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsauswahltheorie von Harsanyi und Selten. Die gemachten Vorhersagen konnten für die Teilnehmer (wenn auch mit überraschenden geschlechtspezifischen Unterschieden) in zwei Experimenten bestätigt werden. / In the real world, risky decisions are typically made after previous experiences, which include prior gains and losses. Although there are empirical findings suggesting an influence of such prior experiences on the subsequent behavior, normative as well as descriptive decision and game theory have not provided yet a thorough theoretical treatment of these effects. Therefore, this thesis develops first a theoretical fundament. It is based on the Cumulative Prospect Theory, which is extended by an "aggregation axiom". For single-person-games an incentive compatible mechanism to elicit true evaluations of risks is developed and finally tested in two laboratory experiments. The relevance of the aggregation axiom gets full support whereas a risk perception according to the Cumulative Prospect Theory has to be rejected. In multi-person-games the additional assumption of Social Projection has to be incooperated. Equilibrium selection according to "perfectness" and "risk dominance" are used to derive predictions, which are empirically validated in two experiments. Furthermore, gender-specific differences are observed.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-08-17T16:06:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Angela Maria Haberkamp_.pdf: 3622419 bytes, checksum: 8685cab27c26c2999033feb48418cc9a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T16:06:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Angela Maria Haberkamp_.pdf: 3622419 bytes, checksum: 8685cab27c26c2999033feb48418cc9a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-07 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta pesquisa analisou quais são as variáveis individuais e ambientais que influenciam o julgamento e a tomada de decisão (JDM) de contadores em empresas que adotam as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) e como o fazem, no que se refere ao controle do imobilizado. Este estudo defende que elementos individuais e pressões ambientais influenciam o JDM dos contadores, demandado em maior grau desde a adoção das IFRS no Brasil, em 2010. A perspectiva individual foi estudada à luz da Teoria da Racionalidade Limitada (limitações cognitivas, situacionais e informacionais impedem a decisão ótima); já a ambiental utiliza os pressupostos da Teoria Institucional (as organizações tendem à similaridade, em função de pressões coercitivas, normativas e miméticas). Para a coleta de dados, foi utilizado um questionário semiestruturado, aplicado a 28 contadores que atuam em organizações que adotam as IFRS. Os resultados mostram que tanto as variáveis individuais, quanto as pressões institucionais influenciam o JDM dos contadores estudados. Os elementos individuais referem-se a limitações cognitivas (uso de facilitadores de decisão e excesso de variáveis); informacionais (informação indisponível e custo-benefício de obtê-la); e situacionais (tempo); sendo a limitação cognitiva a mais frequente. As pressões ambientais identificadas são as coercitivas (legislação, auditoria, detentores de capital, gestores e entidades regulamentadoras), as normativas (graduação, outros contadores, formação complementar, professores e auditoria) e as miméticas (consultoria). Destas, a pressão coercitiva é a mais presente no JDM dos contadores. A análise em relação a como elementos individuais e ambientais influenciam o JDM mostra que: a) as limitações cognitivas influenciam com maior intensidade o JDM dos contadores nas decisões operacionais, enquanto as pressões coercitivas influenciam mais o JDM nas decisões relacionadas à gestão do imobilizado (adotar a IFRS de forma integral ou parcial e como atender - ou não - a tudo que a norma demanda); b) há eventos em que Racionalidade Limitada e as Pressões Institucionais influenciam o JDM dos contadores de forma conjunta (como no cálculo da depreciação, teste de impairment e controles complementares), quando isso ocorre, as pressões coercitivas são determinates da decisão. / This research analyzed the individual and environmental variables that influence the judgment and decision making (JDM) of accountants in companies that adopt International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and how they do it, in terms of asset control. This study argues that individual elements and environmental pressures influence the accountants JDM, demanded to a greater degree since the adoption of IFRS in Brazil in 2010. The individual perspective was studied in light of the Bounded Rationality Theory (cognitive, situational and informational limitations prevent the optimal decision); and the environmental uses the presuppositions of the Institutional Theory (the organizations tend to the similarity, due to coercive, normative and mimetic pressures). For the data collection, was used a semi-structured questionnaire, applied to 28 accountants who work in organizations that adopt the IFRS. The results show that individual variables and institutional pressures influence the JDM of the studied accountants. The individual elements are related to cognitive limitations (use of decision facilitators and excess variables), informational limitations (information unavailable and cost-effective to obtain it) and situational limitations (time); where the cognitive limitation is the most frequent. The environmental pressures identified are coercive (legislation, audit, capital holders, managers and regulators), normative (graduation, other accountants, supplementary training, teachers and auditing) and mimetics (consulting). Of these, the coercive pressure is the most present in the JDM of the accountants. The analysis of how individual and environmental elements influence the JDM shows that: a) Cognitive limitations influence the accountant’s JDM more strongly in operational decisions, while coercive pressures influence the JDM more in decisions about the management of fixed assets (adopt IFRS in whole or in part and how to meet - or not - all that the standard demands). b) There are events in which Limited Rationality and Institutional Pressures influence the accountant’s JDM jointly (as in the calculation of depreciation, impairment test and complementary controls), when this occurs, coercive pressures are determinate to the decision.

本論文是承續近來〝有限理性總體經濟學〞發展下之一支研究。有關有限理性的定義，在本研究中乃是以Sargent(1993)及Leijonhufvud(1993)為根據。Sargent(1993)認為：經濟學家在建立模型時，要怎麼樣去塑造其模型中的決策者的預期及學習呢？為了在精神上求一致起見，不應將模型中的決策者想成比經濟學家本人更聰明或更無知。有關這兩個角色應一致的要求，似乎便成了有限理性總體經濟學中相當關鍵的磐石。有關預期與學習形成的部份在計量經濟學上，又可大致分為兩個階段。在第一階段中，是以統計決策理論為主所建構的預期與學習過程，這類型的預期是奠基於以機率模型為主的學習過程。此類學習過程可以說是1980年代以來，理性預期學習過程的主要架構。使用這種學習模型需對決策者在所擁有的資訊上，做較強的限制。而第二階段的學習模式是要減輕模型中對決策人在資訊上的負荷，即將第一階段機率模型的學習擴充至非機率模型的學習。而幾乎所有學習上的問題，都可以視為一個尋找的問題，模型選擇是尋找模型，參數估計是尋找參數。在模型的設定上，以往我們處理的程序是：假設模型為....，則我們可以....。對於模型的選定並沒有嚴格的判定標準可供依循。然而遺傳規畫不但對模型的設立，提供了一個良好的典範，而且對如何尋找模型，提供了一個一般性的尋找模式。模型的選取，應是先經由尋找的過程而得到的，而非憑空自上帝的手中取得。因此，就如何建立起尋找的方式，其較模型的選擇更為基本且更為重要。遺傳規畫運作之初，並沒有包含先驗的知識，初始的模型是經由隨機創造而得。在演化的過程中，模型逐漸地有了系統（型態）的出現。這種尋找的過程，既不偏向隨機也不偏向系統，在隨機與系統中，取得了一個完美的平衡點。在遺傳規畫運作下，要選擇何種模型，將視實驗者的時間成本而定。換句話說，即遺傳規畫提供了實驗者到目前為止最好的模型，是否該花更多時間以取得〝較精確〞的模型，將由實驗者自行決定。在此情況下，我們在模型的選擇上，有了一個較為適當的判定基準：模型的大體輪廓將是藉由進化的方式取得，不是經由天外神來之筆而誕生。在模型精確度的選擇上，將由個人的時間成本來定奪。就在這層意義上來說，此種選擇的模式比較符合〝人性〞，亦與經濟學的精神相符合。本論文的目的便是要了解遺傳規畫在實際運作上的一些特性，以及該如何正確地使用它才能得到最大的功效，以期望它能成為我們在處理有限理性總體經濟學上的一個重要工具。

<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2008 Sammanfattning jämte 5 uppsatser</p>

Economic changes such as rising açaí prices and the availability of off-farm employment are transforming the landscape of the Amazonian várzea, subject to decision-making at the farming household level. Land use change results from complex human-environment interactions which can be addressed by an agent-based model. An agent-based model is a simulation model composed of autonomous interacting entities known as agents, built from the bottom-up. Coupled with cellular automata, which forms the agents’ environment, agent-based models are becoming an important tool of land use science, complementing traditional methods of induction and deduction. The decision-making methods employed by agent-based models in recent years have included optimization, imitation, heuristics, classifier systems and genetic algorithms, among others, but multiple methods have rarely been comparatively analyzed. A modular agent-based model is designed to allow the researcher to substitute alternative decision-making methods. For a smallholder farming community in Marajó Island near Ponta de Pedras, Pará, Brazil, 21 households are simulated over a 40-year period. In three major scenarios of increasing complexity, these households first face an environment where goods sell at a constant price throughout the simulated period and there are no outside employment opportunities. This is followed by a scenario of variable prices based on empirical data. The third scenario combines variable prices with limited employment opportunities, creating multi-sited households as members emigrate. In each scenario, populations of optimizing agents and heuristic agents are analyzed in parallel. While optimizing agents allocate land cells to maximize revenue using linear programming, fast and frugal heuristic agents use decision trees to quickly pare down feasible solutions and probabilistically select between alternatives weighted by expected revenue. Using distributed computing, the model is run through several parameter sweeps and results are recorded to a cenral database. Land use trajectories and sensitivity analyses highlight the relative biases of each decision-making method and illustrate cases where alternative methods lead to significantly divergent outcomes. A hybrid approach is recommended, employing alternative decision-making methods in parallel to illustrate inefficiencies exogenous and endogenous to the decision-maker, or allowing agents to select among multiple methods to mitigate bias and best represent their real-world analogues.

Economic changes such as rising açaí prices and the availability of off-farm employment are transforming the landscape of the Amazonian várzea, subject to decision-making at the farming household level. Land use change results from complex human-environment interactions which can be addressed by an agent-based model. An agent-based model is a simulation model composed of autonomous interacting entities known as agents, built from the bottom-up. Coupled with cellular automata, which forms the agents’ environment, agent-based models are becoming an important tool of land use science, complementing traditional methods of induction and deduction. The decision-making methods employed by agent-based models in recent years have included optimization, imitation, heuristics, classifier systems and genetic algorithms, among others, but multiple methods have rarely been comparatively analyzed. A modular agent-based model is designed to allow the researcher to substitute alternative decision-making methods. For a smallholder farming community in Marajó Island near Ponta de Pedras, Pará, Brazil, 21 households are simulated over a 40-year period. In three major scenarios of increasing complexity, these households first face an environment where goods sell at a constant price throughout the simulated period and there are no outside employment opportunities. This is followed by a scenario of variable prices based on empirical data. The third scenario combines variable prices with limited employment opportunities, creating multi-sited households as members emigrate. In each scenario, populations of optimizing agents and heuristic agents are analyzed in parallel. While optimizing agents allocate land cells to maximize revenue using linear programming, fast and frugal heuristic agents use decision trees to quickly pare down feasible solutions and probabilistically select between alternatives weighted by expected revenue. Using distributed computing, the model is run through several parameter sweeps and results are recorded to a cenral database. Land use trajectories and sensitivity analyses highlight the relative biases of each decision-making method and illustrate cases where alternative methods lead to significantly divergent outcomes. A hybrid approach is recommended, employing alternative decision-making methods in parallel to illustrate inefficiencies exogenous and endogenous to the decision-maker, or allowing agents to select among multiple methods to mitigate bias and best represent their real-world analogues.

This thesis provides an analysis of the Georgia statewide regional water planning process; a system deemed to be operating in the adaptive management framework. The principal focus of this analysis is to detail a novel paradigm capable of dynamic response to changing resource demands which stems from adaptive management principles and ensures representativeness. The paradigm extends directly from application of the theories of bounded rationality and adaptive management. Development of the framework is accomplished through application of theory and correlated empirical analysis. Extreme drought conditions signal a punctuated-equilibrium effecting statewide water resource management which in turn drives the issuance of an executive-level directive to prioritize and effectively manage critical state water resources. This study evolves directly from analysis of the current effort to establish unified regional water plans which address rapid population growth, and escalating water resource conflicts with Alabama and Florida while satisfying priorities established within the executive directive. Fundamental to this analysis is the survey of currently seated regional water planning council members. The essential function of the survey is to provide a qualitative assessment of the perceptions of appointed council members. These perceptions influence water management techniques prescribed by the final policy. While this is a fuzzy correlation, a primary function of this analysis is to quantify the strength of correlation between perceptions and developed policy. This survey details appointed council member attitudes and attributes and affords analysis of future decision making outcomes. The method prescribed herein unifies multi-level decision making processes under a dynamic adaptive management paradigm, and is intended to link the regional water planning processes with continuous annual assessment in order to achieve the pluralistic benefits of adaptive management decision making.