Climate policy has been mainly studied with economic models that assume representative, rational agents. However, it aims at changing behavior associated with carbon-intensive goods that are often subject to bounded rationality and social preferences, such as status and imitation. Here we use a macroeconomic multi-agent model with such features to test the effect of various policies on both environmental and economic performance. The model is particularly suitable to address distributional impacts of climate policies, not only because populations of many agents are included, but also as these are composed of different classes of households driven by specific motivations. We simulate various policy scenarios, combining in different ways a carbon tax, a reduction of labor taxes, subsidies for green innovation, a price subsidy to consumers for less carbon-intensive products, and green government procurement. The results show pronounced differences with those obtained by rational-agent model studies. It turns out that demand-oriented subsidies lead to lower unemployment and higher output, but perform less well in terms of carbon emissions. The supply-oriented subsidy for green innovation results in a significant reduction of carbon emissions with a slight reduction of unemployment. / Series: WWWforEurope

Afin d’expliquer la diversité des pratiques des agriculteurs, cette thèse explore le rôle des caractéristiques du processus de décision dans les choix opérationnels réalisés. Sur la base d’une méthode à deux volets (modélisation et enquêtes), nous avons proposé un modèle conceptuel du processus de prise de décision des agriculteurs, caractérisé les différences possibles au sein de ce processus (appelées modes de décisions), mis en évidence le lien entre ces modes et les pratiques, précisé les modalités de simplification du processus de décision et identifié de nouveaux leviers d’action pour l’accompagnement des agriculteurs. De nature générique, les modèles et les méthodes d’enquêtes proposés ont été appliqués à un cas d’étude qui à permis d’expliquer l’hétérogénéité des pratiques antifongiques des agriculteurs sur le blé tendre en MidiPyrénées par leurs caractéristiques personnelles, par les caractéristiques de leurs exploitations et par leurs modes de décision / In order to explain the diversity of farmers’ practices, this these explores the decision-making process features involved in operational choices. Using a modeling and survey-based approach, we built a conceptual model of the farmer’s decision-making process, distinguished different use of the decision-making process (referred to as decision modes), highlighted the link between thesedecision modes and farmers’ practices, showed some simplification made by farmers in their decision-making process and offered suggestions for improving the decision support means to farmers. Both the models and the survey design are generic. They have been applied in a case study that makes it possible to explain the heterogeneity of fungicide use on soft wheat between farmers in the Midi-Pyrénées region by their personal characteristics, the characteristics of their production situation and their decision modes.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:24:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eduardo Jose da Fonseca Costa.pdf: 1263073 bytes, checksum: 5e0088ac0a9fdf2802c5b0844e006375 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-15 / Impartiality is essential to jurisdiction, and among other things, it guarantees the parties and the maintenance of democracy itself. The procedural law systems currently in force in Brazil need to walk in opposite direction to the path they are actually taking in order for it to be minimally guarded, that is, regarding subjective impartiality specifically. These systems have already been feeding the cognitive bias factors of the adjudicative decision-makers and, therefore, feeding a breach of its systemic and unconscious biases. In this sense, the present work proposes a legislative reform, offering a precautionary model of lege ferenda inspired in algorithmic strategies based on the latest findings of a new discipline increasingly thriving in Anglo-Saxon countries, Israel and Western Europe called Behavioral Law and Economics (resulting from a fusion of law, cognitive psychology and behavioral economics). Hence the reason it is a legal enginnering work. Now, assuming that any decision maker is equipped with a bounded rationality (not to be confused with actual irrationality ), these techniques seek to undo or to isolate the effects of the so-called cognitive biases , which are mere shortcuts predictable and therefore, preventable which the human mind develops in order to make decisions from complex information under situations of uncertainty. Thus, the major cognitive illusions which affect the adjudicative decision-makers (representativeness bias, anchoring-and-adjustment bias, confirmation bias and in-group bias) were studied along with the procedural standards better suited to neutralize or eliminate these biases. Nevertheless, the proposed model is open to new discoveries that may occur regarding this matter. However, even in the case of a lege ferenda model, one can from it criticize de lege lata of the Brazilian Positive Law and demonstrate that many of the common biased practices in daily forensic activities could have already been confronted / A imparcialidade, sendo nota essencial à jurisdição, é dentre outras coisas garantia das partes e da própria manutenção da Democracia. No que concerne especificamente à imparcialidade subjetiva, para que seja minimamente resguardada, é preciso que os sistemas de direito processual atualmente vigentes no Brasil caminhem em sentido oposto ao rumo que estão tomando, já que têm alimentado fatores de enviesamento cognitivo dos julgadores e, portanto, uma quebra inconsciente e sistêmica de suas imparcialidades. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho propõe uma reforma legislativa, oferecendo um modelo precaucional de lege ferenda inspirado em estratégias algorítmicas fundadas nas mais recentes descobertas de uma nova disciplina cada vez mais pujante em países anglo-saxões, Israel e Europa Ocidental chamada Behavioral Law & Economics (resultante de uma fusão entre Direito, Psicologia Cognitiva e Economia Comportamental). Daí por que se trata de um trabalho de engenharia jurídica. Ora, partindo da premissa de que todo e qualquer tomador de decisão é provido de uma racionalidade limitada (que não se confunde propriamente com irracionalidade ), essas técnicas buscam desfazer ou isolar os efeitos dos chamados vieses cognitivos , que nada mais são do que atalhos simplificadores previsíveis e, portanto, evitáveis que a mente humana desenvolve para tomar decisões a partir de informações complexas sob situação de incerteza. Assim sendo, estudar-se-ão as principais ilusões cognitivas que acometem os julgadores (viés de representatividade, viés de ancoragem e ajustamento, viés de confirmação e viés de grupo) e as normas processuais mais adequadas à neutralização, mitigação ou à eliminação desses vieses. Não obstante, o modelo proposto é aberto às novas descobertas que vierem porventura a ocorrer nessa matéria. Todavia, ainda que se trate de um modelo de lege ferenda, a partir dele se podem tecer críticas de lege lata ao direito positivo brasileiro e demonstrar que muitas das práticas enviesantes corriqueiras no dia a dia forense já poderiam estar sendo combatidas

This study is located in the rather young area of international entrepreneurship research. Despite the vast literature in Western countries exploring the nexuses on entrepreneurship-national culture and entrepreneurship-decision making, we know very little about how bounded rationality and national culture affect the entrepreneur’s capital budgeting decision making in emerging economies. Past research on small business and capital budgeting shows a predominance of quantitative approaches to identify which capital budgeting techniques were used and why they are used. Through qualitative interviews with 20 Mexican and 20 Canadian participants, this study looks at how Mexican and Canadian entrepreneurs approach capital budgeting decisions in small businesses in the food sector industry. This study confirms that capital budgeting decisions are taken under conditions of bounded rationality, but also suggests that context affects how bounded rationality is used. For instance, Mexican entrepreneurs rely more on “gut feeling”, while Canadian entrepreneurs tend to combine intuition with business plans. The differences observed for both national samples are further discussed through a Hofstedian and a GLOBE lens. I argue that national culture affects how capital budgeting decisions are made throughout the decision making process (planning, identifying, evaluating, selecting and authorizing) and also that national culture plays a role for who influences the entrepreneurs’ decisions. By contextualizing capital budgeting decisions and using a constructivist logic of discovery, this study provides insights into entrepreneurs’ capital budgeting decision making in small businesses and suggests that national cultural differences play a valuable part in understanding this important aspect of entrepreneurial activity. This thesis also adds to our understanding of entrepreneurs in emerging economies.

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise institucionalista-pós-keynesiana da História Econômica da Amazônia, desde 1615 até o final das políticas desenvolvimentistas na década de 1980. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é apresentar e analisar, à luz do referido referencial teórico, os motivos pelos quais a Amazônia não teve uma dinâmica de crescimento e desenvolvimento relativamente estável, mas, muito pelo contrário, foi caracterizada pelo subdesenvolvimento. Para identificar as causas do subdesenvolvimento atual da Amazônia foram utilizadas as seguintes categorias/conceituações analíticas convergentes entre Veblen, Commons e Keynes; racionalidade limitada, incerteza, hábito, convenção, instituições (sistema monetário) e demanda efetiva. Para apresentar e analisar as modificações ocorridas nas instituições e na estrutura econômica da Amazônia foram utilizados e interpretados dados quantitativos dos relatórios dos governos estaduais da época, dos Anuários Estatísticos editados pelo IBGE e do banco de dados do IPEADATA. / This thesis presents an Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian analysis of the Economic History of Amazonia from 1615 to the end of development policies in the 1980s. The main objective is to present and analyze, in the light of the Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian approaches, the reasons why the Amazon region did not have a sustainable economic growth and development economic, but, on the contrary, its economic history was characterized by an underdevelopment process. In order to identify the causes of the current underdevelopment of the Amazon, it was considered the following convergent categories between Veblen, Commons and Keynes: bounded rationality, uncertainty, habit, convention, institutions (monetary system) and effective demand. To aim at analyzing the changes occurred in the institutions and in the economic structure of the Amazon, we used and interpreted the of regional governments’ revenues and expenditures of the State Governments, the Statistical Yearbooks edited by IBGE and statistical information of IPEADATA.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer un modèle comportemental de l’être humain pour la simulation d’évacuation de bâtiment en cas d’incendie et de l’intégrer dans un outil de simulation d’évacuation de bâtiment. Le modèle proposé représente une approche individu-centré du comportement et répond aux axiomes de la Rationalité Limitée énoncés par Herbert Simon grâce à une conception hiérarchique des moyens cognitifs des agents simulés. L’implémentation du modèle du comportement présente la particularité d’être intégralement réalisée en GPU (via OpenGL 2.0). Ainsi la fréquence du moteur de comportement est très proche de celle du simulateur et permet une adaptation quasi temps réel des comportements des agents à un changement de perception de leur environnement. Le logiciel d’évacuation développé permet :– l’importation de scénario d’incendie de bâtiment simulé grâce au logiciel FDS,– la configuration des archétypes de comportement des agents évacuant, notamment :– la description des hypothèses sur le monde (connaissance individuelle),– la configuration des comportements des agents (moyens cognitifs individuels).– le positionnement des agents dans le bâtiment,– la simulation de l’évacuation,– l’enregistrement et le play-back d’un scénario d’évacuation.Les contraintes (feu, fumée, obstacles, autres agents) captées par un agent sont interprétées par ce dernier en fonction de son archétype de comportement afin de déterminer si sa stratégie d’évacuation doit être remise en cause. / The main objective of this thesis is to propose a behavioral model of the human being in presence of several constraints and to integrate it into a simulation tool for building egress. The proposed model represents an individual-based approach of behavior modelisation and implement axioms of the bounded rationality set by Herbert Simon providing two key features :– individual prioritization and parametisation of cognitivemeans,– individual perception and knowledgemanagement.The proposed software has the particularity to run entirely on GPU via OpenGL 2.0. Thus the frequency of the behavior engine is very near to that of the simulator and allow adaptation of near real-time behavior of agents in a changing perception of their environment.

The thesis discusses the concept of man in the standard economic thinking. It focuses on a critical evaluation of the selected fundamentals. It presents some possible alternative views which show deficiencies in axiomatics of the main currents of economic modeling. Emphasizing the interdisciplinary connections of knowledge about human thought and behavior the thesis is trying to suggest some directions for further development in the approach to human beings in economics to better reflect their defining natural characteristics. It also mentions some of the manifestations of these characteristics, which can be obtained by drawing on the knowledge of psychology, behavioral economics, neuroeconomics and other disciplines and which are inconsistent with standard models, because they lead to errors and irrationality, implicitly produce bounded rationality or attribute the constitutive importance during the formation of thought to completely different elements. In conclusion, the thesis passes to reflect the position of irrationality in the inner world of human's brain and also in the outside world - the economy.

Dans un contexte économique mondialisé, les prises de position d’achat et/ou de vente sur les marchés financiers obéissent à des logiques qui échappent parfois à la rationalité (bulle spéculative…). Les prévisionnistes et les analystes financiers mobilisent une boite à outil statistique pour connaître les tendances futures à partir de l’étude des tendances passées. Cette boite à outils repose sur l’hypothèse de normalité des lois statistiques sous jacentes ce qui autorise des logiques d’inférence statistique, de test, de corrélation... On a pu observer par le passé que les résultats de ces projections ont souvent été miss à défaut : la crise financière que nous traversons correspond par exemple à un choc difficilement prévisible même s’il fait l’objet d’une rationalisation a posteriori. Notre objectif, partant de ce constat, est de renouveler les approches traditionnelles des prévisionnistes et analystes financiers en mobilisant deux approches complémentaires : l’intelligence économique appliquée au domaine financier et l’utilisation de techniques modernes de gestion de l’imprévisible. Dans ce travail interdisciplinaire, notre approche s’inspire tout d’abord du concept d’image, de réputation d'une entreprise cible et de la démarche du cycle de renseignement issue de l’approche de l’intelligence économique. De plus, nous pouvons compléter notre démarche à travers les travaux de Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Nous mobilisons enfin le concept de force de situation (François Julien) pour renforcer la décision des investisseurs institutionnels en situation d’incertitude. Pour valider notre contribution théorique, nous avons choisi le Vietnam comme terrain de recherche. A partir d’une approche qualitative conduite auprès de gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens, nous avons pu connaître mieux leurs pratiques de prises de décisions, les critères d’évaluation d’investissement différents issus des analyses de matrices stratégiques, leur perception de la réputation et le rôle de l’intelligence financière dans leur processus d’investissement. Nous proposons alors une méthode qualitative reposant sur la réputation pour caractériser le degré de robustesse d’une organisation à des chocs et élaborons en outre un système de renseignement financier en prenant en compte la hiérarchie des critères d’évaluation d’investissement des gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens. Notre démarche est illustrée par l’étude de cas d'une entreprise aquacole Vietnamienne. / In the context of economic globalization, the stand point of purchase and/or sale on the financial market obeys logics which escape sometimes rationality (speculative bubbles…).The forecasters and the financial analysts mobilize one statistical toolbox in order to know the future trends based on the study of the last trends.This toolbox builds on the assumption of normality of the statistical laws underlying which authorizes logics of statistical inference, test, correlation… We could observe in the past which the results of these projections were often failed:the financial crisis which we pass correspondent to a not easily foreseeable shock even if it is the object of a rationalization a posteriori. Our objective,on the basis of thisreport,is to renew the traditional approaches of the forecasters and financial analysts by mobilizing two complementary approaches: business intelligence applied to the financial field and the utilization of modern technologies of management of the unforeseeable risks.In this interdisciplinary work,our approaches are inspired,first of all concept oftheimage or of the reputation of a target company and approach of the intelligence cycle resulting from the approach of the business intelligence.Moreover,we can complete our approach through the principle of bounded rationality,that of the speculative bubble and that of the logic uncertain suggested by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Finally, we mobilize the concept of force of situation(François Julien) in order to reinforce the decision of the institutional investors in uncertain situation.To validate our theoretical contribution,we chose Viet Nam as our ground of research.From a qualitative approach and based on experimentation ahead 5 Vietnamese portfolio managers, we could better know their practice of making decision, their different investment evaluation criteria, their perception of reputation and the role of the financial intelligence in their process of investment. Thus, we propose a qualitative method based on the reputation in order to characterize the degree of robustness of an organization faced to shocks and elaborate moreover a system of financial information by taking into account the hierarchy of the investment evaluation criteria of the Vietnamese portfolio managers. Our approach is illustrated through a case study of a Vietnamese aquaculture company.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier la fragilité financière, c.à.d. la sensibilité du système financier par rapport aux perturbations. La difficulté principale concernant la fragilité financière dans le contexte actuel est la complexité croissante du système financier. piur remédier à ce problème, cette thèse s'inspire des deux courants relativement récents de la recherche économique : l'analyse des réseaux et l'économie comportementale. Les principaux concepts mobilisés sont les mécanismes de diffusion, de cascade et la rationalité limitée. Chapitre 1 étudie les effets des structures locales ds liens, spécifiquement la longueur des cycles transitifs sur la magnitude de la contagion financière. Chapitre 2 propose un modèle dynamique des paniques bancaires, dans lequel les paniques émergent par un mécanisme de cascade des retraits. Le but est de mieux comprendre comment les paniques se forment. Chapitre 3 étudie les paniques bancaires dans un contexte à la fois dynamique et comportemental, avec la présence du mimétisme et l'hétérogénéité des déposants. / This thesis studies financial fragility, i.e. the sensitivity of the financial system with respect to shocks. the main issue of financial fragility in the current context is the increased financial complexity. To address this problem, this study draws inspiration from two relatively recent streams of literature : econopmics of networks and behavioral economics. The main concepts in use are diffusion, cascade and bounded rationality. Chapter 1 studies how petterns of links, specifically, the length of transitive cycles affect the extent of financial contagion. Chapter 2 proposes a dynamic model in which bank runs arise as cascades of withdrawals. The aim is to better understand how bank runs occur. Chapter 3 studies bank runs in a dynamic and behavioral setting, with herding and heterogeneity of depositors.

Bakgrund: Det har länge forskats kring beslutsfattande och i centrum av forskningen finns människans oförmåga att fatta rationella beslut. I modern tid har AI fått en allt större betydelse och det har uppdagats att AI har möjligheten att överkomma människans oförmåga att fatta rationella beslut. I takt med digitaliseringen har AI och dess förmåga att hantera stora mängder information blivit ett användbart verktyg på investeringsmarknaden. De AI-styrda fonderna öppnar för ännu ett investeringsalternativ och det råder i dagsläget brist på förståelse för hur investerares beslut om att inkludera dessa fonder i sitt sparande påverkas av beteendemässiga faktorer. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att skapa förståelse för hur ett beslut om att investera i AI-styrda fonder påverkas av investerares beteendemässiga faktorer och den AI-styrda fondens egenskaper. Genomförande: Uppsatsen är en kvalitativ små-N-studie med ett hermeneutiskt perspektiv. Det empiriska materialet har samlats in genom ett bekvämlighets- och ett målstyrt urval. Sammanlagt 18 semi-strukturerade intervjuer har genomförts. Slutsats: Uppsatsen skapar förståelse för hur ett beslut om att investera i AI-styrda fonder påverkas av investerares beteendemässiga faktorer och den AI-styrda fondens egenskaper. Investerares känslor för och associationer till AI påverkar den initiala inställningen och används för att utvärdera för- och nackdelar. Den kunskap och det intresse investerare har för sparande och investeringar påverkar till vilken grad för- och nackdelar övervägs. De med högre respektive lägre kunskap ser olika värden i den AI-styrda fondens egenskaper. Beroende på dessa beteendemässiga faktorer ställer sig investerare olika till huruvida rationalitet eller intuition efterfrågas vid investeringsbeslut. / Background: Decision making has been researched for a long time and in the center of the research is the human inability to make rational decisions. In modern time, AI has become increasingly important and it has been discovered that AI has the opportunity to overcome the human inability to make rational decisions. In line with digitalization, AI and its ability to managed large amount of information has become a useful tool on the investment market. The AI-managed funds open for yet another investment alternative and there is currently a lack of understanding of how investors’ decision to include these funds in their savings are influenced by behavioral factors. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to create an understanding of how a decision to invest in AI-managed funds is affected by investors’ behavioral factors and attributes of the AI-managed fund. Completion: This study is a qualitative small-N-study with a hermeneutic perspective. The empirical data has been gathered through a target and a convenience sample. A total of 18 semi structured interviews have been conducted. Conclusion: The study contributes to an increased understanding of how different factors in the investor and how the attributes of the AI-managed fund affect the investor's decision. Investors' feelings for and associations with AI affect the initial attitude and are used to evaluate the pros and cons. The extent to which the advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives are considered is largely determined by the knowledge and interest the investors have for savings and investments, which results in those with higher and lower knowledge seeing different values in the attributes of the AI-managed fund. Depending on these factors, investors differ as to whether rationality or intuition is required in investment decisions.