There is mounting evidence that sustainable scale thresholds are now being exceeded worldwide and environmental resource shocks (e.g. climate change, water and oil shortages) may be inevitable in some regions of the world in the near future. These could result in severe economic breakdowns, welfare loss, and in the worst-case, the collapse of modern civilization. Therefore, a pre-eminent challenge of our times is to determine how to design a resilient (safe-fail) economy – one that can endure, adapt to and successfully recover from breakdowns when they occur. Surprisingly, while ecological economic theory relies heavily on natural science concepts such as thermodynamics, insufficient attention has been paid to the important ecological concept of resilience, particularly as it applies to economic design. The three major policy goals of current ecological economic theory (sustainable scale, just distribution and efficient allocation) focus instead on preventing environmental resource shocks and breakdowns, but given their unpredictability prevention may not always be possible. How resilience can inform the blossoming field of ecological economics is thus explored in this theoretical, transdisciplinary paper. Drawing on literature as diverse as archaeology and disaster planning, it develops six key principles of economic resilience and applies them to analyze the resilience of key societal systems including our money, electricity, water, transportation, information/communication and emergency response systems. Overall, economic resilience appears to be a unique concern that is not readily subsumed under any of the three existing ecological economic policy pillars. In fact, efforts to build in resilience have the potential to both complement and at times contradict the other three goals, especially efficiency. The need to further study these possible tradeoffs provides strong justification for adding a fourth distinct policy pillar, namely “Resilient Design”, to core ecological economic theory. Indeed, ecological economist’s longstanding criticism of economic growth meshes readily with the Resilience Alliance’s own figure-8 adaptive cycle theory critiquing the resilience costs of growth, providing significant opportunities for the future collaboration of these two fields in broadening global system theory.

This study was conducted to investigate the change in pre-service teacher education in Turkey by using Chaos Theory. The research questions were the following: 1) How did the 1982 restructuring relate to the 1998 restructuring? (2) What were the reasons for the anomalies that led to the 1998 restructuring? (3) How did the 1998 process of transformation work? (4) At which stage of the curve is the system now? (5) What are the possible paths the new model may evolve? The data sources in this qualitative research study were interviews and documents. The 28 participants of the interviews included some key decision-makers at related institutes and some academic staff at 8 different Education Faculties in Ankara, EskiSehir, Bolu, Adana, and KirSehir. The written documents included some relevant reports, meeting minutes, the proceedings of conferences and panel discussions, research articles, and some articles of four different newspapers in Turkey. A model of &lsquo / Change as Chaotic Transformation&rsquo / was designed by the researcher as a theoretical framework. The data, subjected to a content analysis, revealed that the logic of chaotic transformation has significant implications in investigating and understanding the stability versus instability phases in teacher education affairs in Turkey / roughly 1950s - 1970 (evolution and stability), 1970s (disequilibrium and turbulence), 1982 &ndash / early 1990s (&lsquo / forced stability&rsquo / ), and mid-1990s to 1998 (turbulence and transformation) are significant phases in this sense. The data also revealed that the reasons for the anomalies that led to the 1998 restructuring were in both program and administrative issues. Further, the process of transformation in 1998 was &lsquo / self-organization.&rsquo / It is found that presently the 1998 model is perceived as not yet institutionalized / the achievements in program issues realigned teacher education to its &lsquo / identity&rsquo / , but the path the new model may evolve depends on the clarification and institutionalization of &lsquo / governance&rsquo / and implementing strategies for developing &lsquo / human resources&rsquo / (the teacher educator profile).

Autonomous land vehicles (ALVs) have received considerable attention after their introduction into military and commercial applications. ALVs still stand as a challenging research topic. One of the main problems arising in ALV operations is the navigation accuracy while the other is the dynamic effects of road irregularities which may prevent the vehicle and its cargo to function properly. In this thesis, we propose intelligent solutions to these two basic problems of ALV. First, an intelligent method is proposed to enhance the performance of a coupled global positioning/inertial navigation system (GPS/INS) for land navigation applications during the GPS signal loss. Our method is based on using an artificial neural network (ANN) to intelligently aid the GPS/INS coupled navigation system in the absence of GPS signals. The proposed enhanced GPS/INS is used in the dynamic environment of a tour of an autonomous van and we provide the results here. GPS/INS+ANN system performance is thus demonstrated with the land trials. Secondly, our work focuses on the identification and enlargement of the stability region of the ALV. In this thesis, the domain of attraction of the ALV is found to be patched by chaotic and regular regions with chaotic boundaries which are extracted using novel technique of cell mapping equipped with measures of fractal dimension and rough sets. All image cells in the cellular state space, with their individual fractal dimension are classified as being members of lower approximation (surely stable), upper approximation (possibly stable) or boundary region using rough set theory. The obtained rough set with fractal dimension as its attribute is used to model the uncertainty of the regular regions. This uncertainty is then smoothed by a reinforcement learning algorithm in order to enlarge regular regions that are used for chassis control, critical in ALV in preventing vibration damages that can harm the payload. Hence, we will make ALV work in the largest safe area in dynamical sense and prevent the vehicle and its cargo.

Generic Hamiltonian systems have a mixed phase space, in which regular and chaotic motion coexist. In the chaotic sea the classical transport is limited by partial barriers, which allow for a flux \Phi given by the corresponding turnstile area. Quantum mechanically the transport is suppressed if Planck's constant is large compared to the classical flux, h >> \Phi, while for h << \Phi classical transport is recovered. For the transition between these limiting cases there are many open questions, in particular concerning the correct scaling parameter and the width of the transition. To investigate this transition in a controlled way, we design a kicked system with a particularly simple phase-space structure, consisting of two chaotic regions separated by one dominant partial barrier. We find a universal scaling with the single parameter \Phi/h and a transition width of almost two orders of magnitude in \Phi/h. In order to describe this transition, we consider several matrix models. While the numerical data is not well described by the random matrix model proposed by Bohigas, Tomsovic, and Ullmo, a deterministic 2x2-model, a channel coupling model, and a unitary model are presented, which describe the transitional behavior of the designed kicked system. This is also confirmed for the generic standard map, suggesting a universal scaling behavior for the quantum transition of a partial barrier. / Generische Hamilton'sche Systeme besitzen einen gemischten Phasenraum, in dem sowohl reguläre als auch chaotische Dynamik vorkommen. Der klassische Transport in der chaotischen See wird durch partielle Barrieren begrenzt, die nur einen Fluss \Phi hindurch lassen. Der quantenmechanische Transport ist stark unterdrückt, wenn die Planck'sche Konstante groß gegen den klassischen Fluss ist, h >> \Phi. Ist hingegen h << \Phi folgt die Quantenmechanik der klassischen Dynamik. Für den Übergangsbereich zwischen diesen Grenzfällen gibt es noch viele offene Fragen, insbesondere bezüglich des richtigen Skalierungsparameters und der Breite des Übergangs. Um gezielt diesen Übergang zu untersuchen, haben wir ein System mit einem besonders einfachen Phasenraum entworfen. Er besteht aus zwei chaotischen Gebieten, die durch eine dominante partielle Barriere getrennt sind. Es zeigt sich, dass das universelle Verhalten durch den Parameter \Phi/h beschrieben wird und der Übergang sich über zwei Größenordnungen erstreckt. Wir betrachten verschiedene Matrixmodelle um diesen Übergang zu verstehen. Die numerischen Daten werden nicht durch das Zufallsmatrixmodell von Bohigas, Tomsovic und Ullmo beschrieben. Ein deterministisches 2x2-Modell, eine Kanalkopplung und ein unitäres Matrixmodell beschreiben hingegen den Übergang des entworfenen gekickten Systems. Die Tatsache, dass auch die generische Standardabbildung diesem Verhalten folgt, spricht für ein universelles Verhalten des Quantenübergangs einer partiellen Barriere.

When statistical assumptions do not hold and coherent structures are present in spatially extended systems such as fluid flows, flame fronts and field theories, a dynamical description of turbulent phenomena becomes necessary. In the dynamical systems approach, theory of turbulence for a given system, with given boundary conditions, is given by (a) the geometry of its infinite-dimensional state space and (b) the associated measure, that is, the likelihood that asymptotic dynamics visits a given state space region. In this thesis this vision is pursued in the context of Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system, one of the simplest physically interesting spatially extended nonlinear systems. With periodic boundary conditions, continuous translational symmetry endows state space with additional structure that often dictates the type of observed solutions. At the same time, the notion of recurrence becomes relative: asymptotic dynamics visits the neighborhood of any equivalent, translated point, infinitely often. Identification of points related by the symmetry group action, termed symmetry reduction, although conceptually simple as the group action is linear, is hard to implement in practice, yet it leads to dramatic simplification of dynamics. Here we propose a scheme, based on the method of moving frames of Cartan, to efficiently project solutions of high-dimensional truncations of partial differential equations computed in the original space to a reduced state space. The procedure simplifies the visualization of high-dimensional flows and provides new insight into the role the unstable manifolds of equilibria and traveling waves play in organizing Kuramoto-Sivashinsky flow. This in turn elucidates the mechanism that creates unstable modulated traveling waves (periodic orbits in reduced space) that provide a skeleton of the dynamics. The compact description of dynamics thus achieved sets the stage for reduction of the dynamics to mappings between a set of Poincare sections.

This thesis examines the changing relationships between television, politics, audiences and the public sphere. Premised on the notion that mediated politics is now understood “in new ways by new voices” (Jones, 2005: 4), and appropriating what McNair (2003) calls a “chaos theory” of journalism sociology, this thesis explores how two different contemporary Australian political television programs (Sunrise and The Chaser’s War on Everything) are viewed, understood, and used by audiences. In analysing these programs from textual, industry and audience perspectives, this thesis argues that journalism has been largely thought about in overly simplistic binary terms which have failed to reflect the reality of audiences’ news consumption patterns. The findings of this thesis suggest that both ‘soft’ infotainment (Sunrise) and ‘frivolous’ satire (The Chaser’s War on Everything) are used by audiences in intricate ways as sources of political information, and thus these TV programs (and those like them) should be seen as legitimate and valuable forms of public knowledge production. It therefore might be more worthwhile for scholars to think about, research and teach journalism in the plural: as a series of complementary or antagonistic journalisms, rather than as a single coherent entity.

This thesis examines the utility of mathematical complexity measures for the analysis of stratospheric dynamics. Through theoretical considerations and tests with artificial data sets, e.g., the iteration of the logistic map, suitable parameters are determined for the application of the statistical entropy measures sample entropy (SE) and Rényi entropy (RE) to methane (a long-lived stratospheric tracer) data from simulations of the SOCOL chemistry-climate model. The SE is shown to be useful for quantifying the variability of recurring patterns in a time series and is able to identify tropical patterns similar to those reported by previous studies of the ``tropical pipe'' region. However, the SE is found to be unsuitable for use in polar regions, due to the non-stationarity of the methane data at extra-tropical latitudes. It is concluded that the SE cannot be used to analyse climate complexity on a global scale. The focus is turned to the RE, which is a complexity measure of probability distribution functions (PDFs). Using the second order RE and a normalisation factor, zonal PDFs of ten consecutive days of methane data are created with a Bayesian optimal binning technique. From these, the RE is calculated for every day (moving 10-day window). The results indicate that the RE is a promising tool for identifying stratospheric mixing barriers. In Southern Hemisphere winter and early spring, RE produces patterns similar to those found in other studies of stratospheric mixing. High values of RE are found to be indicative of the strong fluctuations in tracer distributions associated with relatively unmixed air in general, and with gradients in the vicinity of mixing barriers, in particular. Lower values suggest more thoroughly mixed air masses. The analysis is extended to eleven years of model data. Realistic inter-annual variability of some of the RE structures is observed, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. By calculating a climatological mean of the RE for this period, additional mixing patterns are identified in the Northern Hemisphere. The validity of the RE analysis and its interpretation is underlined by showing that qualitatively similar patterns can be seen when using observational satellite data of a different tracer. Compared to previous techniques, the RE has the advantage that it requires significantly less computational effort, as it can be used to derive dynamical information from model or measurement tracer data without relying on any additional input such as wind fields. The results presented in this thesis strongly suggest that the RE is a useful new metric for analysing stratospheric mixing and its variability from climate model data. Furthermore, it is shown that the RE measure is very robust with respect to data gaps, which makes it ideal for application to observations. Hence, using the RE for comparing observations of tracer distributions with those from model simulations potentially presents a novel approach for analysing mixing in the stratosphere.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The focus of the present thesis is the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer, under very stable conditions. In such situation, the turbulence production by the vertical wind shear may have similar magnitude to the total turbulence destruction by the thermal stratification and molecular dissipation terms. Besides being in near balance, the turbulence production and destruction are, each of them, functions of the turbulence intensity itself. This condition causes situations on which the system behaves on a manner different than that expected from each of its parts individually. Such processes are characterized, in the present study, as paths to complexity, and are analyzed separately in the different chapters that compose the thesis. In chapter 2, the coupling state between the surface and the top of the stable boundary layer (SBL) is investigated using four different schemes to represent the turbulent exchange. An idealized SBL is assumed, with fixed wind speed and temperature at its top. The formulations compared are those that solve a prognostic equation for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and those that directly prescribe turbulence intensity as a function of atmospheric stability. The formulation influence on the coupling state is analyzed and it is concluded that, in general, the simple TKE formulation has a better response, although it also tends to overestimate turbulent mixing. The consequences are discussed. In chapter 3, a simplified new model for the exchange between the surface and the atmosphere under stable conditions is proposed. Its main difference from previous works consists in the fact that the turbulent intensity is determined by a prognostic equation for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), rather than by using stability functions that arbitrarily relate it to atmospheric stability. Its main novelty is the fact that, when multiple atmospheric levels are considered, it leads to complex solutions, characterizing the occurrence of the phenomenon known as global intermittency. The vertical structure of the intermittent events is analyzed, and it shown that they are generated at the surface by a local shear increase above a threshold, propagating upward through the turbulence transfer term in the TKE equation. It is proposed that such events constitute a natural characteristic of the disconnected SBL, which occurs along with low large-scale winds and clear skies. Chapter 4 is devoted to the purpose of showing that the use of stability functions that represent the turbulence intensity as its average dependence on atmospheric stability reduces the number of degrees of freedom of the system, precluding it from reaching complex solutions. Finally, in chapter 5, a detailed system dynamics analysis is applied to the model proposed in chapter 3, with the aim of identifying whether it is or not chaotic. It is shown that the system bifurcates as the wind speed at the SBL top increases, reaching period 3 for a range of situations, a sufficient condition for chaos existence. Furthermore, positive Lyapunov exponents are found, again confirming the chaotic character of the system. It is shown that the complexity arises from the nonlinear interactions between the different vertical levels considered, through the vertical turbulence transport terms. / O foco da presente tese é a camada limite atmosférica noturna, sob condições estáveis. Nesta situação, a produção de turbulência pelo cisalhamento vertical do vento pode ter magnitude similar à destruição total de turbulência devido à estratificação térmica e a dissipação molecular. Além de serem próximos no balanço, a produção de turbulência e a destruição são, cada um deles, funções da intensidade turbulenta. Esta condição causa situações nas quais o sistema se comporta de maneira diferente do que o esperado para cada uma de suas partes individualmente. Tais processos são caracterizados, no presente estudo, como caminhos para a complexidade, e são analisados separadamente em diferentes capítulos que compôem a tese. No capítulo 2, o estado de acoplamento entre a superfície e o topo da camada limite estável (CLE) é investigado usando 4 diferentes esquemas para representar a intensidade turbulenta. Uma CLE idealizada é assumida, com velocidade do vento e temperatura fixas no seu topo. As formulações comparadas são aquelas que resolvem uma equação prognóstica para a energia cinética turbulenta (ECT) e as que prescrevem diretamente a intensidade turbulenta como uma função da estabilidade atmosférica. A influência da formulação no estado de acoplamento é analisada e é concluído que, em geral, a formulação simples de ECT tem a melhor resposta, embora esta tenda a superestimar a mistura turbulenta. As consequências são discutidas. No capítulo 3, um novo modelo simplificado para interação entre a superfície e a atmosfera em condições estáveis é proposto. A principal diferença com relação a estudos anteriores, consiste no fato que a intensidade turbulenta é determinada por uma equação prognóstica para a ECT, ao invés de usar funções de estabilidade que são arbitráriamente relacionadas com a estabilidade atmosférica. A principal novidade é o fato que, quando multipos níveis atmosféricos são considerados, este apresenta soluções complexas, caracterizando a ocorrência do fenômeno conhecido como intermitência global. A estrutura vertical dos eventos intermitentes é analisada, e esta mostra que os eventos são gerados na superfície pelo aumento local do cisalhamento acima de uma fronteira, propagando-se para cima através do termo de transporte turbulento na equação da ECT. É proposto que tais eventos constituam uma característica natural da CLE desconectada, a qual ocorre em condições de ventos de grande escala fracos e com céu claro. O capítulo 4 tem como propósito mostrar que o uso de funções de estabilidade que representam a intensidade da turbulência como a dependência média desta com a estabilidade atmosférica, reduz os graus de liberdade do sistema, assim evitando que este encontre soluções complexas. Finalmente, no capítulo 5, uma análise dinâmica detalhada é aplicada no modelo proposto no capítulo 3, com meta de identificar se este é caótico ou não. É mostrado que as soluções do sistema bifurcam-se com o aumento da velocidade do vento no topo da CLE, encontrando soluções com período 3 para um intervalo de situações, uma condição suficiente para a existência de caos. Além disso, expoentes de Lyapunov positivos são encontrados, novamente confirmando o caráter caótico do sistema. É mostrado que a complexidade surge através de interações não lineares entre os diferentes níveis verticais considerados, através do termo de transporte vertical de turbulência.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:15:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FlavioPrebianca.pdf: 9416283 bytes, checksum: 8370dafefe8b91b42b5d6117aaae5da3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-04 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The Chua s circuit is an electronic oscillator that has a non-linearity coupled to an LC oscillator, enabling the study of experimental chaos. Using the method of feedback with sine function of the voltage from C1 capacitor, indirectly alters the nonlinear curve of the circuit, with new operation points allowing the emergence of four scroll attractors. A consequence of this feedback is the emergence of a new chaotic region in the parameter space. We present here a qualitative numerical study simulated via MULTISIM/SPICE. It also presents the study by fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration for the construction of the parameter space of the largest Lyapunov exponent and bifurcation diagram. It explores the crisis region in the numerical study and show the experimental attractors in this phenomenon. We seek to compare the crisis phenomenon relating the number of visits that system is in the regions +V1 and &#8722;V1. / O circuito de Chua é um oscilador eletrônico que possui uma não-linearidade acoplada a um oscilador LC, viabilizando o estudo de caos experimental. Utilizando o método de realimentação por função senoidal da tensão do capacitor C1, altera-se indiretamente a curva não linear do circuito, com novos pontos de operação do oscilador, possibilitando o surgimento de atratores de quatro rolos. Uma consequência desta realimentação ´e o surgimento de uma nova região de caos no espaço de parâmetros. Apresenta-se neste trabalho, o estudo numérico qualitativo simulado via MULTISIM/SPICE. Também apresenta o estudo por integração numérica pelo método Runge-Kutta de quarta ordem, para a construção do espaço de parâmetros do maior expoente de Lyapunov e diagrama de bifurcação. Explora-se a região de crise no estudo numérico e mostra-se atratores experimentais em tal fenômeno. Buscamos comparar o fenômeno de crise relacionando o numero de visitas que o atrator faz nas regiões +V1 e &#8722;V1.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-12T20:15:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Marques.pdf: 14630401 bytes, checksum: 352c48d8c01e0db8ba6b41f5e8317ec8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-11 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The main subject developed in this dissertation is the characterization of the dynamics of high-dimensional conservative systems using different statistical approaches. Looking at the conservative system phase-space, we can find chaotic and regular regions that are characterized by a random distribution of points and periodic structures formed by closed orbits, respectively. The nonlinearity parameter has a fundamental hole to the occurrence of chaotic trajectories that can get stuck for a finite time on the vicinity of regular regions. This phenomenon is known as stickiness effect and can be identified using different tools as the spectrum of finite time Lyapunov exponents or the recurrence time statistics (RTS), e.g. Throughout this dissertation, we propose to characterize this effect using such approaches and also apply a new methodology which uses the time series of the spectrum of finite time Lyapunov exponents to separate the dynamics in different regimes of motion. For this purpose, we study two conservative systems that are derived from standard map, a symplectic map extensively used to investigate the transition from regular to chaotic dynamic. The first system consists in a chain of coupled standard maps that originates a 2N-dimensional system, where N is the number of coupled maps. Using this system, from the definition of regimes of motion, we obtained the cumulative distribution of the consecutive time that the trajectory spends in a particular regime, which reproduces with a good precision the results obtained when using the RTS. The second system studied was the Modified Standard Map, which is obtained adding an action variable to the standard map. The coupling with an extra dimension allows the penetration of the regular structures by the trajectories, what was forbidden for the two-dimensional case. The application of the method of separation of regimes in this system enables a more detailed analysis of the stickiness effect, showing that only the trajectories located near the regular structures have Local Lyapunov exponents about zero. Thus, the development of this research contributes to a better understanding of the stickiness effect in high-dimensional conservative systems. / O tema principal desenvolvido nesta dissertação de Mestrado está relacionado com o estudo da dinâmica de sistemas conservativos, utilizando diferentes abordagens estatísticas. Ao analisarmos o espaço de fases de um sistema dinâmico pertencente a esta classe, podemos encontrar regiões caóticas e regulares que são caracterizadas pela distribuição aleatória de pontos e por estruturas periódicas formadas por órbitas fechadas, respectivamente. O parâmetro de não-linearidade tem um papel fundamental na existência de trajetórias caóticas que podem ser aprisionadas por um tempo finito nas proximidades das regiões regulares. Este fenômeno é conhecido como efeito stickiness, e pode ser identificado através da utilização de diferentes abordagens como, por exemplo, o espectro de Lyapunov calculado a tempo finito ou a estatística dos tempos de recorrência de Poincaré (ETR). No decorrer desta dissertação, propomos caracterizar o efeito stickiness utilizando tais abordagens, além de aplicar uma nova metodologia que consiste em analisar séries temporais do espectro de expoentes de Lyapunov afim de definir diferentes regimes de movimento. Para isso, estudamos dois sistemas conservativos multidimensionais derivados do mapa padrão, um mapa simplético muito utilizado para a investigação da transição da dinâmica regular para caótica. O primeiro deles consiste em uma rede de mapas padrão acoplados que dá origem a um sistema de 2N-dimensões, sendo N o número de mapas acoplados. Utilizando este sistema, a partir da definição de regimes de movimento, foi possível determinar a distribuição cumulativa do tempo consecutivo que a trajetória permanece em um determinado regime, sendo que os resultados obtidos por meio da análise desta quantidade podem reproduzir de forma satisfatória aqueles obtidos quando utilizamos a ETR. O segundo sistema estudado foi o Mapa Padrão Modificado (MPM), resultante do acoplamento entre uma variável ação extra e o mapa padrão tradicional. O acoplamento com uma dimensão extra permite que trajetórias penetrem nas regiões de regularidade, o que antes era proibido para o caso bidimensional. A aplicação da técnica de separação de regimes neste sistema permite uma análise mais detalhada do efeito stickiness, mostrando que apenas trajetórias que se encontram em torno das estruturas de regularidade possuem expoentes de Lyapunov Locais com valores próximos a zero. Desta forma, o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa contribui para o melhor entendimento do efeito stickiness em sistemas conservativos de alta dimensionalidade.