[pt] A existência de um mercado para reduções de emissões de gases de efeito estufa cria uma nova variável a ser considerada na avaliação econômica de empreendimentos florestais: a absorção de CO2. O seqüestro desse gás gera um fluxo de dividendos que se transforma em uma fonte adicional de receita, influenciando as decisões gerenciais tomadas pelo administrador florestal. O presente trabalho estuda como se dá essa influência sobre o melhor momento de se efetuar o corte das árvores. O empreendimento florestal estudado é uma floresta de eucaliptos, explorada em função de sua madeira e cuja função de crescimento é conhecida. O preço pelo qual pode ser vendida a madeira varia estocasticamente, não podendo ser previsto, enquanto que um certificado correspondendo a uma tonelada de CO2 removido é negociado em um mercado próprio a um preço que é considerado como sendo constante e exógeno. Todos os outros parâmetros envolvidos são constantes e conhecidos. Diante do preço de mercado, incerto, o administrador pode tomar três decisões: derrubar a floresta, esperar ou abandonar o negócio. Devido às características desse tipo de empreendimento, a Teoria de Opções Reais mostrou-se a metodologia mais adequada a ser usada. / [en] The existence of a market for certified greenhouse gases emission reductions creates a new variable to take into account in economical valuation of forest enterprises: the CO2 absorption. The sequestration of this gas generates a dividend flow which becomes an extra revenue, having influence in the managerial decisions taken by the forest manager. This work studies the effects caused by this influence over the optimal rotation age of the stand. The forest studied is an Eucalyptus stand, explored due to its timber and whose growth curve is known. The stumpage price varies stochastically and cannot be predicted, while a certificate corresponding to one ton of sequestered CO2 is traded in a specific market at a price considered constant and exogenous. All the other parameters involved are constant and know. Facing the uncertain stumpage market price, the manager can make three possible decisions: to harvest, wait or abandon. Due to the characteristics of this kind of activity, the Real Options Theory has shown to be the most suitable to be used in this case.

The voluntary carbon market, the area of focus for this thesis, developed alongside the compliance carbon market when individuals and organisations elected to compensate for their CO2 emissions. The steep growth in demand for voluntary carbon offset credits stemmed from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Climate issues were firmly on the agenda and carbon offsetting was viewed as a way for countries to meet their carbon reduction targets in efforts towards mitigating climate change. Since then, there has been a shift to natural climate solutions, namely forestry and land use carbon projects.  The ideal host location for such projects oftentimes have an existing, usually poor, population.  Project developers claim to help such populations by providing community benefits such as job creation and improved agricultural practices.  However, there is a gap in the research which focuses on the future of these communities after the projects, and how sustainable the benefits are.  This thesis examines the community benefits of two REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) projects: Alto Mayo Conservation Initiative, Peru and Yaeda Valley REDD Project, Tanzania.  Interviews with project developers are cross-referenced with project documents and other available sources to analyse the sustainability of the livelihood impacts.  The results show that the positive impacts of voluntary carbon projects on a local community can be sustained post-project. Overall, the well-being of community members can improve, as can decision-making skills and capacity levels.  Project participants can become more adaptable to shocks as their livelihoods have diversified and they have stronger links with international markets.  This link with international markets, however, can also become a barrier to livelihood benefits. As local people become reliant on market demand and project funds, they move away from subsistence farming and when demand drops, they may find it hard to prosper.  Additionally, there is a risk that following the departure of the project and its developers, more malevolent and powerful parties may move into the area.  To overcome these barriers, livelihood diversification opportunities need to be strengthened and land tenure issues clarified.

Society is dependent processes that emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere prevents sunlight reflected from earth’s surface to get to space thereby warming the earth and causing climate change. To prevent the effects of adverse climate change, the voluntary carbon market was designed to help buyers, individuals or organizations that cannot avoid emission in their process, purchase carbon credits from sellers, entities whose process prevent or avoid carbon emissions. The voluntary carbon market faces challenges like market fragmentation, opacity of records, and delayed processes due to layers of intermediation and double counting. In an attempt to solve these challenges, blockchain, a ledger technology, has been applied by innovative organizations. This thesis researches the possible roles of trading carbon credits using blockchain based platforms in the voluntary carbon market. Furthermore, this thesis focuses secondarily on how the application could increase supply of carbon credits, influence commitment to net-zero, contribute to production of high-quality carbon credits, and promote fairness in carbon trading. A conceptual framework based upon the Oxford Principles for Carbon Offsetting, Taskforce for Scaling the Voluntary Carbon Market (TSVCM), and the Sustainability Principles was used in this study. Seven organizations were investigated in this study through a first phase of interview and a second phase of survey.The findings suggest that blockchain-enabled carbon trading has the potential to enable market growth, foster systems interactions and transition via information technology, and support opportunities for sustainability in the socio-ecological system. Blockchain also inherits the unsustainability of the overall tech and energy sectors wherein it operates. Weak governance systems off-chain from non-disclosures by market players also risk the market system on-chain to vulnerabilities. The authors conclude that trading carbon credit on blockchain-enabled platforms is a step in the right direction in terms of amplifying the contributions the voluntary carbon markets hold for cutting down carbon emissions. They also acknowledge that the blockchain-carbon credit application does not directly address upstream issues of carbon emission but serves as a mechanism to accelerate decarbonization.

Background: With the tremendous growth of the Green Bond (GB) market, understanding the relationship of the GB market with other financial markets gains importance. The Covid19 pandemic causing a recession in most major economies creates an opportunity to see the co-movements of the GB market with other financial markets under a period of economic crisis. Purpose: This study aims to use the economic contraction catalyzed by the 2020’s Covid-19 pandemic as a means to investigate the co-movements between the GB and the treasury bond, corporate bond, stock, and carbon markets during an economic recession. Through this, we intend to find if co-movements of the GB market have changed, and if so, how. Method: As the collected data is time-series data, Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Ljung-Box tests are utilized for preliminary testing. Thereafter, a univariate-GARCH model is used for volatility modeling. Moreover, the DCC-GARCH model has been conducted to determine the co-movements between the markets. Conclusion: The results of the study show that in the case of GB, treasury, and corporate bond markets, no considerable changes were observed in the co-movement among the two different sample periods. Moving to the stock and GB markets, it was found that the co-movement increased at the beginning of the crisis. However, for the whole crisis period, no substantial changes can be seen in comparison to the pre-crisis period. Furthermore, the co-movement between the two markets was found to be weak in general. Moving on to the results obtained for GB and carbon markets, at the start of the crisis, a sharp fall can be observed. When compared to the pre-crisis period, the co-movement showed a slight increase, yet very weak. Furthermore, it was observed that the co-movement between the two markets has been weak during the whole sample period.

[pt] A recente entrada em vigor do Protocolo de Quioto e as pesadas multas impostas às empresas européias que não conseguirem reduzir as suas emissões de CO2, fazem do mercado de carbono uma realidade na América Latina. O Brasil se destaca como um dos países de maior potencial para exportar créditos de carbono no mundo, em grande parte, devido ao seu potencial para produzir energia elétrica a partir de fontes renováveis. Entretanto, a real atratividade desse negócio ainda é desconhecida no âmbito do setor elétrico brasileiro, tanto pela dificuldade encontrada para se estimar a sua produção efetiva de créditos de carbono, quanto pelo não reconhecimento das flexibilidades gerenciais embutidas neste mercado. Neste contexto, o objetivo principal deste trabalho é desenvolver um arcabouço metodológico capaz de determinar o valor incremental do mercado de carbono nos projetos de geração de energia elétrica em sistemas hidrotérmicos interligados, tal como o sistema brasileiro. Para tanto as metodologias ACM0002 [1] e AMS-I.D [2], ambas aprovadas pelo Comitê Executivo do Protocolo de Quioto, serão empregadas no cálculo da linha de base desses projetos. Além disso, uma vez que o preço do crédito de carbono pode ser considerado uma variável aleatória, a Teoria das Opções Reais será utilizada para avaliar as flexibilidades gerenciais embutidas no negócio. A opção considerada é avaliada pelos métodos Binomial, dos Mínimos Quadrados, e de Grant, Vora & Weeks. Os processos estocásticos Geométrico Browniano e de Difusão com Saltos são utilizados para modelar o preço do crédito de carbono. / [en] The recent ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the heavy penalties imposed on the European firms not reducing their Greenhouse Gas emissions, make the Carbon Market a real asset for Latin America. In this context, Brazil appears as one of the biggest producers of Certified Emissions Reductions, mostly because of its potential to generate electricity power from renewable sources. Unfortunately, the real attractivity of this business is still unknown in the Brazilian Electric Sector, mainly because of the difficulties in estimating the future production level of the emission reductions and because of the existence of some managerial flexibilities that usually are note recognized in this market. In this context, the main objective of this work is to develop a methodology to evaluate the incremental payoff of the carbon market on electricity generation projects of interconnected hydrothermal systems, such as the Brazilian System. The methodologies ACM0002 [1] and AMS-I.D [2], both approved by the Kyoto Protocol Executive Board, will be used to determine the baseline of these projects. Besides that, considering that the carbon price is a random variable, the Real Option Approach will be used to evaluate the embedded managerial flexibilities on this business. The considered real option may be evaluate by using the binomial tree, least square Monte Carlo and the Grant, Vora & Weeks methods. Both the Geometric Brownian Motion and the Jump Diffusion processes will be used to model the price of the emission reductions.

In this research, several improvements to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) were analysed. The EU ETS is a market for emission allowances and the European Union's main instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (of which CO2 is the main component). However, the CO2 allowance price in this market has been highly volatile and generally too low to stimulate significant long-term reductions in CO2 emissions. National and system-wide price floors and ceilings were investigated, prompted by the UK’s implementation of a CO2 price floor through a supplementary CO2 tax. The effects of the "backloading" of CO2 allowances and the proposed Market Stability Reserve were also investigated. While the latter measures may increase dynamic efficiency, this research showed that a well-designed price corridor is even more efficient, while still achieving the long-term abatement targets and stabilising prices. Furthermore, different methods for adjusting the CO2 emissions cap in response to changes in renewable energy policies were investigated. Finally, the impact of investors' risk aversion on the functioning of the CO2 market was evaluated. The analyses were conducted with the use of EMLab-Generation, an agent-based model that simulates two interconnected electricity markets with a joint CO2 emissions trading system. In this model, the companies have limited knowledge about the future, which makes it possible to investigate the impact of public policy instruments on long-term investment dynamics. / <p>The Doctoral Degrees issued upon completion of the programme are issued by Comillas Pontifical University, Delft University of Technology and KTH Royal Institute of Technology. The invested degrees are official in Spain, the Netherlands and Sweden, respectively.</p><p>copyright notice:(c) 2015 Richstein, J.C. · Creative Commons Attribution-Non- Commercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License</p><p>QC 20151109</p>

Forests represent both, one of the strongest drivers of, and solutions to, the rapid shift in the earth’s climate. Integrating the use of forests as a cost effective solution into emerging global carbon markets however has proven extremely difficult. The incentive for companies to utilize carbon credits as a means to offset emissions is heavily dependent upon the credibility of the project that created it. The difficulty proving the credibility of forest projects is largely due to the inherent variation associated with forest environments. British Columbia’s pine beetle epidemic provides an extreme example of just how quickly vast carbon sinks can suddenly become sources. As such, the creation of standards to ensure the security of carbon sequestered by forest projects has proven to be instrumental in encouraging their acceptance into the market. British Columbia has recognized that its forests play an integral role in its contribution to the global carbon cycle. As a result, heavy consideration is being made as to how this resource may be integrated as a source of carbon offsets for its own Cap-and-Trade market. This will mean establishing specific standards for forest projects in a BC context. This report reviews two regional standards from the states of Georgia and California, which could be applied as templates for a set of BC specific protocols for forest carbon sequestration projects. It is intended that through a comparison and analysis of these standards that potential problems faced in applying similar standards here will be identified.

Essay I: In January, 2005, the EU launched the first international emissions trading system (EU ETS), aimed at reducing carbon emissions in a cost-effective way by means of a market-based instrument. In this paper, we use the treatment/control, before/after design of the natural experiment approach to investigate the treatment effect of the EU ETS on the profitability of a sample of Swedish energy firms in 2005 and 2006. We also investigate whether under-cap and over-cap firms respond differently to the EU ETS. The estimation results in general suggest no significant impact in 2005 and a negative significant impact in 2006. The sub-sample analysis suggests that profitability of under-cap and over-cap firms were affected differently by the EU ETS in 2005, but not in 2006. Essay II: The paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool. A time-series model (a mixed GARCH-EARJI jump model) capturing the common statistical features of electricity prices is used to identify price jumps. By the model, a categorical variable is defined distinguishing no, positive and negative jumps. The causes for the jumps are then explored through the use of ordered probit models in a second stage. The empirical results indicate that the structure of the market plays an important role in whether shocks in the demand and supply for electricity translate into price jumps. Essay III: Scientific evidence indicates that human development faces multiple and interacting regime-switching environmental thresholds such as climate change, ocean acidification and biodiversity loss. And crossing one or more such thresholds would trigger rapid and large changes in our life-support system with widespread consequences. This paper attempts to study the effects of such thresholds on human well-being in a growth theoretical framework. We derive the accounting prices of pollution stocks such as the concentration of greenhouse gases for the risk of triggering catastrophic events, which are needed for conducting a dynamic cost-benefit analysis. We first analyze a simple model with a single threshold and then extend it to a planar system with correlated double thresholds with a joint probability distribution. the results can be applied for analyzing global climate change and ocean acidification risks, which are highlighted in a Nature article by Rockström et al. (2009). Essay IV: Lump-sum transfers as a means of tackling climate change are mainly perceived as a theoretical construct to achieve the first best Pareto optimum. The previous literature on lump-sum transfers normally focuses on the two polar cases: the absence of lump-sum transfers and perfect or unconstrained lump-sum transfers, leaving the middle way aside. In this paper, we attempt to explore the unmarked part by developing a model where transfer costs are explicitly taken into account. We show that whether the Pareto optimum characterized by the equalization of marginal abatement costs is attainable depends on the formation of transfer costs. When the marginal transfer cost is zero, the separability of equity and efficiency under perfect lump-sum transfers is kept. However, when the marginal transfer cost is positive, the optimum with equalization of marginal abatement costs is neither attainable, nor desirable. We also simulate a policy experiment in China to review the optimal abatement and transfer patterns between China's provinces within a framework of imperfect lump-sum transfers. The highlighted welfare gains is supportive of considering lump-sum transfers as a national climate change policy.

Submitted by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2016-10-11T21:09:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Santana, Augusta Coelho.pdf: 2413318 bytes, checksum: 2268f89859f58a34fcf14e4106f86ac9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2017-02-15T19:04:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Santana, Augusta Coelho.pdf: 2413318 bytes, checksum: 2268f89859f58a34fcf14e4106f86ac9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-15T19:04:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Santana, Augusta Coelho.pdf: 2413318 bytes, checksum: 2268f89859f58a34fcf14e4106f86ac9 (MD5) / A problemática dessa dissertação se insere no contexto da questão ambiental global, da contraditória relação de dominação do homem frente à natureza. Em função da crescente deteriorização das condições de vida no Planeta várias iniciativas começaram a surgir, a partir dos anos 1970, como o Protocolo de Kyoto, firmado na década de 90, que introduziu o mecanismo de desenvolvimento limpo, o MDL - com o objetivo de reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE), como uma das alternativas para diminuir tais emissões e ajudar no combate às mudanças climáticas. No Brasil, as iniciativas de redução de emissão de GEE, estão alinhadas com a postura do governo assumida na Política Nacional de Mudança do Clima, no intuito de ampliar sua matriz pelo uso de fontes alternativas de energia. Esse estudo buscou apresentar uma compreensão crítica das práticas usadas para conter as emissões dos gases causadores do efeito estufa, abordando a sistemática dos créditos de carbono na agroindústria canavieira, que tem diversificado a matriz energética brasileira com a produção de bioetanol e co-geração de energia. Assim, o presente estudo tem como objetivo geral examinar a contribuição do instrumento crédito de carbono para redução de emissão de GEE na agroindústria canavieira à luz da economia de baixo carbono. A pesquisa foi qualitativa teórica e exploratória de caráter bibliográfico e documental e realizada por meio de análise de conteúdo. Os dados secundários foram obtidos através dos Documentos de Concepção do Projeto (DCPs) de co-geração com bagaço de cana de açúcar, através dos sites da United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) e do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI). Dessa forma, para compreender o funcionamento desse mecanismo, foram identificados vinte e sete projetos de co-geração com bagaço registrados na UNFCCC. Com relação aos projetos analisados verificou-se, que o setor sucroalcooleiro prevê a redução anual de cerca de 550.000 tCO2e . Para os padrões de uma economia de baixa emissão de carbono, os investimentos em eficiência energética mostraram-se insuficientes, observado no baixo número de projetos de co-geração de energia com bagaço. A pesquisa sinalizou a limitação e fragilidade desse instrumento frente aos desafios da questão ambiental. A transformação do carbono em mercadoria possível de negociação no mercado financeiro mostrou-se vulnerável e limitado. / The problem of this dissertation is in the context of global environmental issues, the contradictory relationship of man front of the domination of nature. Due to the increasing deterioration of the living conditions on the planet several initiatives began to emerge from the 1970s, such as the Kyoto Protocol, signed in the 90s, which introduced the Clean Development Mechanism, CDM - in order to reduce GHG emissions, as an alternative to reduce such emissions and help fight climate change. In Brazil, the GHG emission reduction initiatives are aligned with the government's stance taken in the National Climate Change Policy, in order to expand the energy matrix by the use of alternative energy sources. This study aimed to present a critical understanding of the practices used to curb emissions of gases causing the greenhouse effect, addressing the systematic carbon credits in the sugarcane industry, which has diversified Brazilian energy matrix with the production of bioethanol and cogeneration. Thus, this study has the general objective to examine the carbon credit instrument's contribution to GHG emission reduction in the sugar cane industry in light of the low carbon economy. The research was theoretical and exploratory qualitative of bibliographic and documentary character and conducted through content analysis. Secondary data were obtained from the Project Design Documents (PDDs) cogeneration with sugarcane bagasse, through the websites of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI). Thus, to understand the functioning of this mechanism, we identified 27 cogeneration projects bagasse registered in the UNFCCC. Regarding the projects examined it was found that the sugar and ethanol industry provides the annual reduction of approximately 550.000 tCO2e. This observed in the low number of cogeneration projects with bagasse. Energy efficiency investments proved insufficient to the standards of a low-carbon economy, shown in the low number of cogeneration projects with bagasse. The survey signaled the limitations and fragility of carbon credit to the challenges of environmental issues. The transformation of carbon possible commodity trading in the financial markets proved vulnerable and limited.

179 p. / Submitted by Santiago Fabio (fabio.ssantiago@hotmail.com) on 2012-12-19T20:11:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 11a.pdf: 2500615 bytes, checksum: b6e1b8b3c11f149e14b2db6b9a1b4957 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-12-19T20:11:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 11a.pdf: 2500615 bytes, checksum: b6e1b8b3c11f149e14b2db6b9a1b4957 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Essa pesquisa teve por objetivo geral investigar as principais diferenças entre o mercado de carbono regulado e voluntário no Brasil, no período de 2004 a 2011. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, realizou-se uma pesquisa exploratória, de caráter bibliográfica e documental. Além disso, realizou-se o mapeamento de projetos no mercado de carbono voluntário no Brasil por meio de busca em bancos de dados e sites institucionais dos Padrões Internacionais (PIs) e dos proponentes, enquanto que os projetos do mercado de carbono regulado foram extraídos do banco de dados já existente no site do Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia (MCT). Os dados secundários foram coletados por meio de analise de conteúdo dos Documentos de Concepção dos Projetos (DCP) mapeados e extraídos dos sites e banco de dados visitados. Verificam-se diferenças e semelhanças entre os mercados de carbono regulado e voluntário no Brasil, estando o primeiro mercado com 499 projetos, enquanto o segundo possui 111 projetos até o momento. Constatou-se que o mercado de comercialização de créditos de carbono brasileiro, seja ele na categoria regulada, seja na voluntária pode constituir-se em um instrumento econômico de extrema importância na viabilização da redução das emissões de GEE, contribuindo, assim, para a mitigação das mudanças climáticas e para o alcance das metas nacionais de redução de emissão de GEE fixadas na Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC). Constatou-se também que o uso desses projetos como instrumentos de políticas públicas poderá contribuir significativamente para o cumprimento das metas fixadas pela PNMC e requer a criação de fundos de financiamentos voltados para esses mercados, viabilizando o aumento do número de projetos e suas contribuições para mitigar as mudanças climáticas, bem como a consolidação desses mercados no Brasil. Além disso, faz-se necessário que o governo estimule a iniciativa privada a investir em tecnologias ambientalmente seguras, viabilizando o aumento de energias renováveis para o país, que contribuam para a transição para uma economia de baixo carbono, além da criação de incentivos fiscais que motivem as empresas a desenvolverem os projetos de redução de emissão de GEE. Enfim, recomenda-se como novas investigações futuras a realização de pesquisa com o objetivo de verificar de que forma os créditos de carbono são comercializado no Brasil, identificando as características dos contratos fechados no mercado financeiro nacional, como também a realização de estudos de caso em projetos representativos do mercado de carbono voluntário no Brasil, visando confrontar os dados secundários obtidos via análise de dados com os dados primários obtidos através de pesquisa de campo. / Salvador