Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2018-01-24T12:40:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RonabsonCardosoFernandes_TESE.pdf: 6153894 bytes, checksum: 639a151a92478af330fab5f8c1beaf3b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-01-29T13:36:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RonabsonCardosoFernandes_TESE.pdf: 6153894 bytes, checksum: 639a151a92478af330fab5f8c1beaf3b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-29T13:36:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RonabsonCardosoFernandes_TESE.pdf: 6153894 bytes, checksum: 639a151a92478af330fab5f8c1beaf3b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-31 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Diante da perspectiva do aumento de extremos de precipita??o pluvial devido ?s mudan?as clim?ticas, estudar a influ?ncia da atividade ciclo solar e fluxo de raios c?smicos nessa vari?vel meteorol?gica ? de grande import?ncia. A precipita??o pluvial ? um fator preponderante para a agricultura, setor energ?tico, pecu?ria e para a economia. Com isso, ? de extrema import?ncia estudar a rela??o entre elas. Inicialmente, houve a necessidade de reconstruir diversas s?ries hist?ricas com percentual inferior a 60% de dados faltantes nas s?ries hist?ricas de GCR, em que, o m?todo MTSDI foi apontado como o melhor modelo, entre aquelas estudadas, para a realiza??o de imputa??o de dados observacionais de GCR. Sendo assim, escolhida a esta??o de Huancayo/PER para correlacionar com a precipita??o pluvial na regi?o Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Verificou-se que houve coer?ncia estat?stica pela t?cnica de Wavelet Coherence entre a precipita??o pluvial com GCR e SSN na escala mensal, sazonal, anual, interanual e interdecadal. Pela t?cnica de Maximal Overlay Transform (MODWT) constatou-se que existe correla??o significativa entre as s?ries estudadas nas escalas de 5,3 anos, 10,6 anos, 22,3 anos e 44,6 anos. E, por fim, pode-se construir um modelo para predizer a s?rie hist?rica da precipita??o pluvial, mostrando-se satisfat?rio. Portanto, essa pesquisa mostrou que existe influ?ncia do fluxo de raios c?smicos e da atividade solar na precipita??o pluvial regi?o tropical Brasileira. / Considering the perspective of increasing extremes of rainfall due to climate change, studying the influence of solar cycle activity and cosmic ray flux on this meteorological variable is of great importance. Rainfall is a preponderant factor for agriculture, the energy sector, livestock and for the economy. With this, it is extremely important to study the relationship between them. Initially, it was necessary to reconstruct several historical series with a percentage of less than 60% of missing data in the historical GCR series, in which the MTSDI method was pointed out as the best model, among those studied, to perform the imputation of observational data Of GCR. Thus, the Huancayo / PER station was chosen to correlate with rainfall in the North and Northeast of Brazil. It was verified that there was statistical coherence by the Wavelet Coherence technique between rainfall with GCR and SSN in the monthly, seasonal, annual, interannual and interdecadal scale. Maximal Overlay Transform (MODWT) showed that there is a significant correlation between the series studied in the scales of 5.3 years, 10.6 years, 22.3 years and 44.6 years. And, finally, a model can be constructed to predict the historical series of rainfall, proving to be satisfactory. Therefore, this research showed that there is influence of cosmic rays flux and solar activity on Brazilian tropical precipitation.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2018-02-15T12:38:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoAgustinhoDeBritoNeto_DISSERT.pdf: 3893797 bytes, checksum: f8f362f7dacddff2f5bb1679cbfbb1f4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-02-19T21:00:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoAgustinhoDeBritoNeto_DISSERT.pdf: 3893797 bytes, checksum: f8f362f7dacddff2f5bb1679cbfbb1f4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-19T21:00:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoAgustinhoDeBritoNeto_DISSERT.pdf: 3893797 bytes, checksum: f8f362f7dacddff2f5bb1679cbfbb1f4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-10-31 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico (CNPq) / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / As regi?es polares t?m um papel crucial no clima do planeta, pois constituem verdadeiros sumidouros de energia. O continente Ant?rtico apresenta caracter?sticas f?sicas e geogr?ficas que propiciam a gera??o de condi??es meteorol?gicas adversas, tendo outro importante atributo a grande variabilidade interanual do gelo marinho. Este estudo tem como um dos objetivos estudar e avaliar o comportamento das condi??es de gelo marinho em pontos fixos no Mar de Weddell, assim como os fluxos de energia em superf?cie e temperatura do ar, utilizando um modelo din?mico pontual. A ?rea de estudo corresponde ao Mar de Weddell situado na parte mais ao sul do oceano Atl?ntico, entre as latitudes 83? 10? Sul a 55? 00? Sul e longitudes 84? 00? Oeste a 10? 00? Leste. Esta ?rea cobre aproximadamente 3,4 milh?es de Km? correspondendo aproximadamente o tamanho do Giro de Weddell. Um outro objetivo ? caracterizar as condi??es clim?ticas em superf?cie na regi?o. Para isso utilizaram-se dados di?rios de Press?o Atmosf?rica em Superf?cie, Velocidade e Dire??o do Vento, al?m da Temperatura do ar a 2 metros, oriundos de 6 esta??es meteorol?gicas do Instituto Ant?rtico Argentino localizados ao longo da borda continental que compreende o Mar de Weddell. Desta forma, realizou-se um estudo das condi??es extremas na velocidade do vento, com dados de rean?lise do Era-Interim, para os ventos zonal e meridional, press?o ao n?vel m?dio do mar e altura geopotencial. Para as condi??es iniciais que alimentam o modelo pontual de gelo marinho, utilizaram-se dados dos fluxos de energia e radia??o di?rios provenientes das rean?lises do NCEP/NCAR. O per?odo de estudo compreende janeiro de 1979 a dezembro de 2015. Quanto ? caracteriza??o das condi??es meteorol?gicas sobre o Mar de Weddell observou-se que quando h? eventos extremos na regi?o, estes estavam associados a ciclones extratropicais transientes. Tendo tamb?m impacto no aumento da temperatura na maioria das esta??es, devido ? advec??o de temperatura oriundo de latitudes menores. As simula??es com o modelo pontual mostraram que a neve ? um grande controlador na taxa de crescimento e derretimento do gelo marinho sobre o Mar do Weddell. Enquanto, que o modelo subestima a Temperatura do Ar em todos os pontos simulados. / The polar regions play a crucial role in the climate of the planet, as they constitute true energy sinks. The Antarctic continent presents physical and geographical characteristics that provide the generation of adverse weather conditions, having another important attribute the great interannual variability of the sea ice. This study has as one of the objectives to study and evaluate the behavior of marine ice conditions at fixed points in the sea of Weddell, as well as the energy flows in surface and temperature of the air, using a dynamic model punctual. The area of study corresponds to the sea of Weddell situated in the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean, between the latitudes 83 ? 10 ' South at 55 ? 00 ' South and longitudes 84 ? 00 ' West at 10 ? 00 ' East. This area covers approximately 3.4 million km? corresponding to approximately the size of Weddell. Another objective is to characterize the surface climatic conditions in the region. For this use daily data of atmospheric pressure on surface, speed and direction of the wind, in addition to the air temperature at 2 meters, from 6 meteorological stations of the Argentine Antarctic Institute located along the Continental edge that comprises the sea of Weddell. In this way, a study of the extreme conditions at wind speed was carried out, with data of reanalysis of the Era-Interim, for the winds of the region and the south, pressure at the average sea level and geopotential height. For the initial conditions that feed the time model of marine ice, data were used of the daily energy flows and radiation from the reanalysis of NCEP/NCAR. The study period comprises January from 1979 to December 2015. As for the characterization of the weather conditions on the sea of Weddell it was observed that when there are extreme events in the region, these were associated with transient extratropical cyclones. It also has an impact on the increase in temperature in most stations due to the advection of temperature from smaller latitudes. The simulations with the punctual model showed that snow is a great controller in the rate of growth and melting of sea ice over the sea of the Weddell. Meanwhile, the model underestimates the air temperature at all simulated points.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-03-07T18:15:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoRaimundoDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 14569984 bytes, checksum: cc27cf0f79c586d5064384f9ee648f97 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-03-07T18:27:43Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoRaimundoDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 14569984 bytes, checksum: cc27cf0f79c586d5064384f9ee648f97 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-07T18:27:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FranciscoRaimundoDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 14569984 bytes, checksum: cc27cf0f79c586d5064384f9ee648f97 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-02 / O objetivo desta tese foi estudar experimentalmente o comportamento termodin?mico da Camada Limite Convectiva (CLC) durante o per?odo seco e chuvoso em uma regi?o de clima semi?rido do nordeste brasileiro (NEB), com o uso de radiossondas nos dias 16, 17 e 18 de novembro de 2013 (per?odo seco) e de 03 a 08 de abril de 2014 (per?odo chuvoso) no munic?pio de Apodi-RN e no chuvoso de 09 a 17 de abril de 2011 nos munic?pios de Mossor?-RN e Quixeramobim-CE. Foram lan?ados 15 bal?es (per?odo seco) e 32 em Apodi-RN e 35 em Mossor?-RN e 36 em Quixeramobim-CE (ambos no per?odo chuvoso). Atrav?s das radiossondagens foram coletados dados do perfil de press?o atmosf?rica, temperatura do ar, umidade relativa do ar, velocidade, dire??o do vento e Jatos de Baixos N?veis. Para os dados de superf?cie em Apodi-RN, utilizou-se uma esta??o meteorol?gica port?til de superf?cie e foram calculadas as m?dias, m?ximos e m?nimos a cada 10 minutos durante 24 horas. Foi aplicado o teste T-Student e se constatou que algumas vari?veis meteorol?gicas apresentaram diferen?as estat?sticas significantes ao n?vel de 5%. Para determinar a altura da CLC aplicou-se o m?todo dos perfis utilizando-se a temperatura potencial e foram analisadas tr?s informa??es de cada perfil: a m?dia da camada, o valor na base e no topo. Em Apodi-RN, a altura da CLC foi maior no per?odo seco que no per?odo chuvoso, sendo mais baixa no in?cio da manh? (05:00 HL - Hora Local) e mais alta no final da tarde ?s 17:00 HL. A temperatura potencial foi ligeiramente superior no per?odo seco que no chuvoso atingindo valores m?ximos ?s 17:00 HL. Em Mossor?-RN e Quixeramobim-CE, a altura da CLC no per?odo chuvoso foi mais rasa, mais fria e mais ?mida em ambos os s?tios. O teste T-Student foi aplicado tanto para avaliar a diferen?a estat?stica entre os dados por per?odo quanto por localidade. Os resultados s?o apresentados no Cap?tulo 4. / The Objective of this thesis was to study experimentally the thermodynamic behavior of the Convective Boundary Layer (CBL) during the dry and rainy period in a semi-arid climate region of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB), with the use of radiosondes on days 16, 17 and 18 November 2013 (dry period) and from 03 to 08 April 2014 (rainy period) in the municipality of Apodi-RN and in the rainy period of 09 to 17 April 2011 in the municipalities of Mossor?-RN and Quixeramobim-CE. They were launched 15 balloons (dry period) and 32 in Apodi-RN and 35 in Mossor?-RN and 36 in Quixeramobim-CE (both in the rainy period). Through radiosondings were collected profile data of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction and Low Level Jets. For surface data in Apodi-RN was used a portable surface weather station to collect data and were calculated the average, maximum and minimum every 10 minutes during 24 hours. It was applied the T-Student test and was found that some weather variables showed statistically significant differences at 5%. To determine the CBL height was applied the profiles method using the potential temperature and it was analyzed three informations from each profile: the average of layer, the value in the base and top. In Apodi-RN, the CBL height was higher in the dry season than in the rainy period, being lowest in the early morning (5:00 HL - Local Time) and highest in the late afternoon 17:00 HL. The potential temperature was slightly higher in the dry season than the in the rainy reaching maximum values at 17:00 HL. In Mossor?-RN and Quixeramobim-CE, the CBL height during the rainy season was shallower, colder and wetter in both sites. The T-Student test was applied both to evaluate the statistical differences between the data by period and by location.The results were shown in the Chapter 4.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-03-07T18:17:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LidiaGabrielaRodriguesDeSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 6421234 bytes, checksum: 89fa219b3a32406f43d2dd2fdeb0c1dd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-03-07T18:34:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 LidiaGabrielaRodriguesDeSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 6421234 bytes, checksum: 89fa219b3a32406f43d2dd2fdeb0c1dd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-07T18:34:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 LidiaGabrielaRodriguesDeSouza_DISSERT.pdf: 6421234 bytes, checksum: 89fa219b3a32406f43d2dd2fdeb0c1dd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-17 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / O estudo sobre o clima vem crescendo constantemente no decorrer dos ?ltimos anos e a precipita??o ? uma das vari?veis em destaque para essa finalidade. Neste estudo levando em considera??o as dimens?es territoriais e as distin??es f?sico-clim?ticas existentes entre os estados do Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB), objetiva-se estudar as oscila??es da precipita??o no NEB, no per?odo de 1961 a 2010, tendo como refer?ncia as m?dias mensais das capitais da regi?o. Para tanto, inicialmente foi feita a descri??o dos principais sistemas meteorol?gicos geradores de chuva na regi?o e em seguida a an?lise dos dados com o aux?lio da estat?stica descritiva, bem como a divis?o dos nove estados em tr?s grupos homog?neos com o auxilio da an?lise de agrupamento (cluster), para assim poder observar as s?ries temporais. Partindo dessas quest?es, fez-se uso da Transformada Wavelet (TW), a qual se apresenta como ferramenta eficaz na obten??o da variabilidade peri?dica num dado recorte temporal dos elementos meteorol?gicos, visando detectar altera??es no padr?o da precipita??o. Os resultados s?o apresentados a partir das TW, a fim de visualizar as oscila??es da precipita??o, assim como a escala e o per?odo para as capitais do NEB, observando que ? poss?vel estudar a chuva da regi?o pela ferramenta. Nos resultados encontrados, pode-se observar que Macei?, Salvador e Aracaj? s?o cidades com padr?es de chuva semelhantes, assim como, Jo?o Pessoa, Natal e Recife, formando outro grupo e um terceiro grupo constitu?do por Fortaleza, Teresina e S?o Lu?s, com caracter?sticas semelhantes no padr?o de chuva, corroborando com trabalhos da literatura, que mostram grupos com alta similaridade. E tais resultados possuem import?ncia nos estudos clim?ticos, pois s?o obtidos por meio de um m?todo que se utiliza de representa??es de tempo e frequ?ncia de forma simult?nea e precisa, permitindo a an?lise de qualquer serie temporal, concluindo que ? poss?vel estudar a precipita??o de um recorte temporal por meio da TW. / The study about the climate change has been growing constantly over the past of the years, and the rainfall is one of the highlighted variables for this purpose. In this study the territorial dimension and existing physical-climatic distinctions between the states of Northeast Brazil (NEB) was taken into consideration. Indeed, the objective is to study the fluctuations in the rainfall of the NEB during the period of 1961-2010 taking as a reference the monthly average capital of the region. For this reason, initially the description of the meteorological rain generating systems in the region was made, and then the data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Also, the nine states was divided in three homogeneous groups with the help of cluster analysis (cluster), so the time series could be observed. Based on these issues, the Wavelet Transform (WT) which presents itself as an effective tool in obtaining the periodic variability in a given time frame of meteorological elements was used to detect changes in the pattern of precipitation. The WT results are presented in order to verify the fluctuations of rainfall, the scale and the period for the capital of the NEB. Thus, it is possible to study the rainfall in the region using this tool. The WT results showed that Maceio, Salvador and Aracaju are cities with similar rainfall patterns as well as another group formed by Jo?o Pessoa, Natal and Recife. In addition, a third group consisting of Fortaleza, Teresina and S?o Luis have similar characteristics in rainfall patterns. In fact, these observations corroborate previous studies which show groups with high similarity. These results have importance in weather studies because they are obtained by a method that uses representations of time and frequency simultaneously and accurately. Furthermore, it allows the examination of any time series. Therefore, it is possible to study the precipitation of a time frame using WT.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-03-07T18:20:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RenioLeiteDeAndrade_TESE.pdf: 5035204 bytes, checksum: b47ec30a380b0eb18f93ffa8a8b4c587 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-03-07T18:57:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RenioLeiteDeAndrade_TESE.pdf: 5035204 bytes, checksum: b47ec30a380b0eb18f93ffa8a8b4c587 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-07T18:57:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RenioLeiteDeAndrade_TESE.pdf: 5035204 bytes, checksum: b47ec30a380b0eb18f93ffa8a8b4c587 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-03 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / No presente trabalho, utilizaram-se dados do Experimento Cariri coletados em regi?o de caatinga nativa no munic?pio de S?o Jo?o do Cariri estado da Para?ba nas coordenadas de 7?22'45,1"S e 36?31'47,2"Wcom altitude de 458 m. As medidasmicroclim?ticas foram realizadas em duas ?pocas, nos per?odo de 01 a 13 de janeiro de 2002 (Per?odo Chuvoso) e 07 a 19 de setembro de 2002 (Per?odo Seco). O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar a caracteriza??o microclim?tica e comportamento do fluxo de calor sens?vel armazenado no dossel vegetativo.O estudo microclim?tico envolveu a medi??o das seguintes vari?veis meteorol?gicas: precipita??o;saldo de radia??o; radia??o solar global; temperatura do ar no dossel vegetativo e fora do dossel vegetativo; fluxo de calor no solo vegetado e n?o vegetado e umidade relativa do ar. Foram comparadas as m?dias durante o per?odo experimental por meio da an?lise de vari?ncia e estat?stica descritiva.Os resultados referentes ?s vari?veis estudadas durante o per?odo experimental e submetidos ? an?lise estat?stica revelaram efeitos significativos a 1% pelo teste F. O saldo de radia??o m?dio foi superior durante o per?odo seco quando comparado ao per?odo chuvoso, com m?dias 163,20 Wm-2 e 44,26 Wm-2, respectivamente. No per?odo noturno o saldo de radia??o foi negativo enquanto que durante o dia foi positivo. A radia??o solar global durante o per?odo chuvoso foi menor do que no per?odo seco, com m?dias de 208,27 Wm-2 e 265,49 Wm-2, respectivamente. As temperaturas do ar dentro do dossel vegetativo foram maiores que a temperatura do ar fora do dossel vegetativo em ambos os per?odos estudados. O fluxo m?dio de calor no solo foi superior no solo n?o vegetado quando comparado ao solo vegetado, com m?dias no per?odo chuvoso de 26,79 Wm-2 e 6,52 Wm-2, respectivamente em ambos os per?odos estudados. Para o per?odo seco o fluxo de calor m?dio foi de 30,50 Wm-2 solo n?o vegetado e 3,88 Wm-2no solo vegetado. A umidade relativa do ar no per?odo chuvoso foi maior do que no per?odo seco com m?dias de 79,60% e 62,73%, respectivamente. O fluxo de calor sens?vel armazenado no dossel vegetativo n?o revelou efeito significativo a 5% entre o per?odo seco e chuvoso, com m?dia de -0,011 Wm-2 no per?odo chuvoso e -0,017 Wm-2 no per?odo seco. / In this study, we used the data of Cariri Experiment collected in native caatinga region in the municipality of S?o Jo?o do Cariri, Para?ba state, in the coordinates of 7?22'45.1 "S and 36?31'47.2" Wwith altitude of 458 m. Microclimate measurements were taken at two stages in the period from 01 to 13 January 2002 (rainy period) and 07 to 19 September 2002 (dry Period). The objective of this work was the microclimate characterization and behavior of the sensible heat flux stored in the canopy. The microclimate study involved the measurement of the following meteorological variables: precipitation; radiation; solar radiation; air temperature in the canopy and out of the canopy; heat flow in non-vegetated and vegetated soil and air relative humidity. We compared the average during the experimental period by analysis of variance and descriptive statistics. The results for the variables studied during the experimental period and submitted to statistical analyzes revealed significant effect from 1% by F test. The average net radiation was higher during the dry season when compared to the rainy season with average of 163.20 Wm-2 and 44.26 Wm-2, respectively. At night the net radiation was negative while during the day was positive. The global solar radiation during the rainy season was lower than in the dry season with an average of 208.27 Wm-2 and 265.49 Wm-2, respectively. At nighttime the net radiation was negative while during the day was positive. The air temperature inside of the canopy are higher than the temperature of the air outside the canopy in both periods. The heat flow in the medium soil was higher in non-vegetated soil when compared to vegetated soil in the rainy season with an average of 26.79 Wm-2 and 6.52 Wm-2, respectively in both periods studied. For the dry period showed average of 30.50 Wm-2 to non-vegetated soil 3.88 Wm-2 to vegetated soil. The relative humidity in the rainy season was higher than in the dry season with averages of 79.60% and 62.73%, respectively. The sensible heat flux stored in the canopy revealed no significant effect of 5% between the dry and rainy season by F test, with an average of -0.011 Wm-2 in the rainy season and -0.017 Wm-2 in the dry season.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-03-09T23:04:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AlineGomesDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3707812 bytes, checksum: 62b13ab70c7f0d3fd9c615d06c89a5f5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-03-14T00:00:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AlineGomesDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3707812 bytes, checksum: 62b13ab70c7f0d3fd9c615d06c89a5f5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-14T00:00:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AlineGomesDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3707812 bytes, checksum: 62b13ab70c7f0d3fd9c615d06c89a5f5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-16 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico (CNPq) / Este trabalho apresenta a an?lise do desempenho do m?todo de previs?o por conjunto atrav?s de Regress?o Linear M?ltipla por Componentes Principais (RCP) para combinar simula??es, com diferentes configura??es, executadas com um modelo clim?tico regional (t?cnica downscaling din?mico) a fim de simular a precipita??o sobre a parte tropical da Am?rica do Sul. As an?lises focaram-se em duas sub-regi?es do Brasil: Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB) e Amaz?nia (AMZ). O modelo regional utilizado nas simula??es foi o RegCM4, for?ado por dados do ERA-Interim, produzidos pelo European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Analisaram-se 18 outonos austrais de 1991 at? 2008. Para a composi??o da previs?o por conjunto foram usados 2/3 do per?odo para treinamento e 1/3 para valida??o, conforme a t?cnica de holdout. Os resultados foram comparados aos dados di?rios de precipita??o do Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) e com a m?dia aritm?tica (MA) das simula??es, que ? o m?todo geralmente utilizado para previs?o por conjunto. O modelo RegCM4 apresentou potencialidade para prever a precipita??o sobre a regi?o tropical da Am?rica do Sul (AS). Al?m disso, diferentes parametriza??es do modelo podem ser modificadas a fim de torn?-lo mais eficaz. Entretanto, o bom desempenho do modelo somado ao m?todo de previs?o por conjunto RCP aumentou a precis?o, comparada ao m?todo MA apresentando: vieses menos tendenciosos (m?dia pr?xima de zero), enquanto o m?todo MA foi tendencioso (subestimou a precipita??o); maior captura da variabilidade dos dados do GPCC e correla??o moderada com os dados do GPCC, enquanto MA obteve correla??o fraca e maior erro quadr?tico m?dio. Al?m disso, o m?todo RCP reproduziu, com melhor desempenho, a distribui??o da frequ?ncia de chuva di?ria ao longo de todo o per?odo para ambas as regi?es. Portanto, a partir da metodologia desenvolvida e implementada obteve-se melhorias na previs?o da intensidade da chuvas di?rias sobre a regi?o tropical da Am?rica do Sul. / This study presents an analysis of the performance of the method ensemble forecasting by Multiple Linear Regression Principal Component (RPC) to combine simulations with different configurations, performed with a regional climate model (downscaling dynamic technique) in order to simulate rainfall over tropical portion of South America. The analysis focused on two sub-regions of Brazil: Northeast Brazil (NEB) and Amazon (AMZ). The regional model used in the simulations was the RegCM4, forced by ERA-Interim data produced by the European Center for Medium- Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). They analyzed 18 austral autumns (1991 until 2008). For the composition of a prediction ensemble, were used for training period 2/3 and 1/3 for validation, as holdout technique. The results were compared to daily precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and the average of the simulations (MA method), which is the method generally used for ensemble forecasting. The RegCM4 model showed potential to predict rainfall over the tropical region of AS. Moreover, different parameterization of the model can be modified to make it more effective. However, the good performance of the model combined with the RCP method of prediction ensemble increased accuracy compared to the MA method, with: less biased bias (average close to zero), while the MA method was biased (underestimated precipitation); greater capture the variability of GPCC data and moderate correlation with the GPCC data, while MA obtained weak correlation and greater mean square error. In addition, the reproduced PCR method improves the performance, the distribution of daily precipitation along the entire the period for both regions. Therefore, from the developed and implemented methodology yielded improvements in forecasting intensity of daily rainfall over the tropical region of South America.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-03-09T23:04:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 VanessaDeAlmeidaDantas_TESE.pdf: 3738312 bytes, checksum: de5a62b1338eeb90aff1798f2d02d2e7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-03-14T00:07:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 VanessaDeAlmeidaDantas_TESE.pdf: 3738312 bytes, checksum: de5a62b1338eeb90aff1798f2d02d2e7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-14T00:07:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VanessaDeAlmeidaDantas_TESE.pdf: 3738312 bytes, checksum: de5a62b1338eeb90aff1798f2d02d2e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-31 / O Rad?nio (Rn-222) ? um g?s nobre-radiativo, incolor, inodoro, ins?pido, denso (9,73 kg/m3) e altamente sol?vel na ?gua (solubilidade de 1,67x10-4 a 25?C e 1Atm) que, com exce??o do Di?xido de Carbono, ? o g?s com maior solubilidade na Atmosfera. Neste estudo foram analisadas a varia??o e correla??o das vari?veis meteorol?gicas com as emana??es de Rad?nio e ?ons atmosf?ricos em um ambiente de floresta equatorial e Caatinga do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Especificamente em biomas do Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) pouco se sabe sobre o comportamento Rn-222, no que diz respeito ? distribui??o nos diferentes n?veis da baixa troposfera, a exemplo da Mata Atl?ntica Dunar e Caatinga. Assim, o objetivo foi de investigar a rela??o entre vari?veis meteorol?gicas, as concentra??es atmosf?ricas de Rn-222 e ?ons atmosf?ricos para o per?odo caracterizado como seco e chuvoso, no munic?pio de Apod?-RN e Parnamirim-RN no per?odo seco, inseridos no bioma de Caatinga e Mata Atl?ntica Dunar Nordestina que abrange cerca de 800.000 Km2 e 19.427 km?, respectivamente. As medidas foram realizadas a 1,5 m do solo. Coletaram-se dados de temperatura do ar, umidade relativa, velocidade e dire??o do vento e press?o atmosf?rica bem como concentra??es de Rn-222 e de ?ons atmosf?ricos. Os resultados mostraram um padr?o bimodal no comportamento di?rio da concentra??o de Rn-222, nas primeiras horas da manh? observado em todos os dias. Comportamento semelhante foi observado para a concentra??o de ?ons entre 04:00 e 05:00 HL (Hor?rio Local) em Parnamirim. Em Apod?, o ciclo di?rio da concentra??o de Rn-222 mostrou um padr?o semelhante ao de Parnamirim, com um m?ximo principal de 29,38 Bq/m3 e 24,00 Bq/m3 durante a esta??o seca e chuvosa, respectivamente, em torno de 17:00 HL e um m?ximo secund?rio ?s 15:00 HL com 27,37 Bq/m3 (esta??o seca) e 19,00 Bq/m3 (esta??o chuvosa). Estes ciclos s?o consistentes com situa??es de uma atmosfera estaticamente neutra devido ? transi??o de per?odos de est?vel para regimes inst?veis (primeiro pico) e inst?veis para est?vel (segundo pico) de acordo com o n?mero de Richardson Bulk tamb?m observado neste estudo. Atrav?s do modelo de regress?o linear m?ltipla via an?lise de componentes principais as vari?veis meteorol?gicas que se mostraram mais correlacionadas com a concentra??o de Rn-222, com explica??o de 88% foram a umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e a radia??o solar global. / The Radon (Rn-222) is a radioactive noble-gas, colorless, odorless, tasteless, dense (9.73 kg / m3) and highly soluble in water (solubility 1,67x10-4 25 ? C and 1 atm) that, except for carbon dioxide is the gas with greater solubility in the atmosphere. This study analyzed the variation and correlation of meteorological variables with the emanations of Radon and atmospheric ions in a rainforest environment and Caatinga in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Specifically, in Northeast biomes of Brazil (NEB) little is known about the Rn-222 behavior in relation to the distribution in the different levels of the lower troposphere, such as the Atlantic Forest Dune and Caatinga. The objective was to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables, atmospheric concentrations of Rn-222 and atmospheric ions to the period characterized as dry and rainy in the municipality of Apodi-RN and Parnamirim-RN in the dry season, entered in the biome Caatinga and Northeast Atlantic Forest Dune which covers about 800,000 km2 and 19,427 square kilometers respectively. The measurements were taken at 1.5 m above the ground. Collected from the air temperature data, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure and Rn-222 and atmospheric ion concentrations. The results showed bimodal pattern in the daily behavior of the concentration of Rn-222, in the early morning hours observed in every day. Similar behavior was observed for the concentration of ions between 04:00 and 05:00 HL (Local Time) in Parnamirim. In Apodi, the daily cycle of concentration of Rn-222 showed a pattern similar to Parnamirim, with a maximum principal of 29.38 Bq / m3 and 24.00 Bq / m3 during the dry and rainy seasons, respectively, around 17:00 HL and a secondary maximum at 15:00 HL with 27.37 Bq / m3 (dry season) and 19.00 Bq / m3 (rainy season). These cycles are consistent with conditions of a statically neutral atmosphere due to the periods of transition from stable to unstable regimes (first peak) and unstable stable (second peak) according to the Richardson number Bulk also observed in this study. Through multiple linear regression model via principal component analysis the meteorological variables that were more correlated with the concentration of Rn-222, with 88% explanation were the relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-04-03T23:20:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 GilvanLuteroDeCarvalhoFilho_DISSERT.pdf: 2534911 bytes, checksum: 6e5346023d8898ac72d6969006150e15 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-04-12T00:06:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 GilvanLuteroDeCarvalhoFilho_DISSERT.pdf: 2534911 bytes, checksum: 6e5346023d8898ac72d6969006150e15 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-12T00:06:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GilvanLuteroDeCarvalhoFilho_DISSERT.pdf: 2534911 bytes, checksum: 6e5346023d8898ac72d6969006150e15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-28 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / A t?cnica de an?lise de sinais GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) emitidos por sat?lites tem sido largamente utilizada no campo da geodin?mica e da geodesia, como sensor para medidas de velocidades e deslocamentos de placas tect?nicas e da representa??o da forma e da superf?cie da Terra. No entanto, o sinal proveniente do sat?lite sofre atrasos ao atravessar a atmosfera terrestre, especificamente em duas das suas camadas: (a) a camada ionosf?rica, na qual o sinal sofre atraso pela presen?a de ?tomos ionizados nesta regi?o, e (b) a camada troposf?rica, onde o atraso acontece devido a presen?a de vapor d??gua na regi?o, sendo fortemente relacionado ? quantidade de vapor d??gua precipit?vel presente na mesma. Neste trabalho apresenta-se uma an?lise de dados de sinais GNSS, coletados em esta??es receptoras de superf?cie, visando aplica??es relacionadas ao c?lculo da quantidade de vapor d??gua na troposfera. Os dados dos sinais GNSS foram obtidos diretamente do IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat?stica) atrav?s da RBMC (Rede Brasileira de Monitoramento Continuo dos Sistemas GNSS). O processamento dos dados foi realizado utilizando-se o software GIPSY (GPS Inferred Positioning System) do JPL-NASA (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), que processa os dados observados dos sat?lites e fornece os valores de ZTD (Zenital Tropospheric Delay) ou Atraso Zenital Troposf?rico. A partir do conhecimento da temperatura e da press?o na posi??o da antena receptora dos sinais, determinou-se o IWV (Integrated Water Vapor), que representa o vapor d??gua integr?vel na coluna atmosf?rica e est? relacionado ? pluviometria local. Aplica??es foram feitas para as cidades de Natal e Mossor?. Das s?ries temporais dos par?metros ZWD, IWV e Pluviometria ? obtidas do INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) - foram realizadas as correla??es estat?sticas entre estas vari?veis, utilizando-se o software R. Correla??es estat?sticas entre sinais de GNSS e de Pluviometria v?m sendo usada como ferramenta de aux?lio para a PNT (Previs?o Num?rica de Tempo). Este trabalho mostra, sem sombra de d?vida, que o par?metro IWV pode ser utilizado como dado de entrada para aplica??es de Nowcasting. / The GNSS signal analysis (Global Navigation Satellite System) issued by satellites has been widely used in the field of geodynamics and geodesy, as a sensor for speed measurements and displacement of tectonic plates and the representation of the shape and the Earth's surface. However, the satellite signal is delayed as it crosses the earth's atmosphere, specifically in two of its layers: (a) the ionospheric layer, where the signal is delayed by ionized atoms present in this region, and (b) the tropospheric layer, due to the presence of water vapor, and is strongly related to the amount of water vapor precipitable present in that region. This work presents data analysis of GNSS signals obtained from surface gauge stations, aiming applications related to the amount of water vapor in the troposphere. Data from the GNSS signals were obtained directly from the IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat?stica) through its link with RBMC (Rede Brasileira de Monitoramento Continuo dos Sistemas GNSS). Data processing was performed using the GIPSY (GPS Inferred Positioning System) software, from JPL-NASA (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), which processes the observed data from satellites and provides ZTD values (Zenithal Tropospheric Delay). From the knowledge of temperature and pressure in the gauge station antenna, one can estimate IWV (Integrated Water Vapor), that means the water vapor in the atmospheric column and is related to the local pluviometry. Applications has been made on Natal and Mossor? cities and were made correlations between the variables from the time series obtained from INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), for the ZTD parameters, IWV and Pluviometry, using statistical analysis from the R-software. Statistical correlations between GNSS and Pluviometry data could be used as a tool for NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction). This work shows, without a doubt, that this happen when IWV is used as input data for Nowcasting applications.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-06-02T22:45:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandaKatiuscaDosSantos_DISSERT.pdf: 2290535 bytes, checksum: 4ca060fc7a0794e735ed5ffd3011ac56 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-06-09T19:32:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandaKatiuscaDosSantos_DISSERT.pdf: 2290535 bytes, checksum: 4ca060fc7a0794e735ed5ffd3011ac56 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-09T19:32:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FernandaKatiuscaDosSantos_DISSERT.pdf: 2290535 bytes, checksum: 4ca060fc7a0794e735ed5ffd3011ac56 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-23 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Nos ?ltimos anos o setor Industrial da Cer?mica Vermelha desenvolveu-se representativamente com a implanta??o de micro e pequenas empresas de Cer?mica por todo Brasil. N?o houve, no entanto, precau??es quanto ao uso dos recursos naturais utilizados como fonte de mat?ria prima para a Ind?stria. Desta maneira investigou-se a respeito de ind?cios de altera??es micrometeorol?gicas associadas ? Ind?stria de Cer?mica Estrutural nos elementos meteorol?gicos em algumas ?reas do Nordeste do Brasil. Para verificar se as vari?veis micrometeorol?gicas: precipita??o, evapotranspira??o, radia??o, velocidade do vento, umidade, e temperatura m?xima e m?nima, referentes ao per?odo de 1980 a 2013, apresentavam tend?ncias, utilizou-se o Teste de Mann Kendall; e para calcular os ?ndices de extremos clim?ticos utilizou-se o conjunto de dados para ?ndices de Extremos Clim?ticos - RClimDex. Foram identificados cinco polos, nos quais verificouse haver tend?ncias negativas para precipita??o, temperatura m?nima, umidade relativa e vento. E tend?ncias positivas para as vari?veis temperatura m?xima, evapotranspira??o e radia??o solar. Detectou-se tend?ncia em todos os polos, com exce??o da temperatura m?nima para o polo P2 (que apresenta maior n?mero de cer?micas). Identificou-se, ainda, tend?ncia para os ?ndices de extremos clim?ticos de Rx1day, R99p, Txn, Tnx, Tn10p, Tx10p, Txx e Tnn. Com tend?ncias positivas de extremos de temperatura para os polos estudados, com exce??o do polo P1 que obteve tend?ncia decrescente, indicando diminui??o dos valores m?ximos da m?nima; e do polo P2 que n?o apresentou tend?ncia para a temperatura m?nima e para os ?ndices de Tnn e Tnx e RX5day. Comportamentos adversos podem estar associados a a??es antr?picas da regi?o, especificamente ? intensa atividade ceramista. Por?m, n?o se pode afirmar categoricamente, que esse comportamento est? associado somente as a??es antr?picas, visto que pode estar sob influ?ncia de diversos agentes do clima. / In recent years the Industrial sector of red ceramic has developed representatively with the implantation of micro and small Ceramics companies throughout Brazil. There were, however, no precautions regarding the use of the natural resources used as raw material source for the Industry. In this way, we investigated the indications of micrometeorological alterations associated with the Structural Ceramics Industry in the meteorological elements in some areas of the Northeast of Brazil. In order to verify if the micrometeorological variables: precipitation, evapotranspiration, radiation, wind speed, humidity, and maximum and minimum temperature, referring to the period from 1980 to 2013, presented tendencies, the Mann Kendall test was used; And to calculate the indexes of climatic extremes the Data Set for Indexes of Climatic Extremes - RClimDex was used. Five poles were identified, in which there were negative trends for precipitation, minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind. And positive trends for the variables maximum temperature, evapotranspiration and solar radiation. A tendency was detected at all poles, with the exception of the minimum temperature for the P2 pole (which has the highest number of ceramics). A trend was also identified for the indexes of climatic extremes of Rx1day, R99p, Txn, Tnx, Tn10p, Tx10p, Txx and Tnn. With positive trends of temperature extremes for the studied poles, with the exception of the pole P1 that obtained a decreasing tendency, indicating decrease of the maximum values of the minimum; And the P2 pole which showed no tendency towards the minimum temperature and for the Tnn and Tnx and RX5day indices. Adverse behaviors may be associated with anthropogenic actions in the region, specifically intense ceramist activity. However, it can not be said categorically that this behavior is associated only with anthropic actions, since it may be under the influence of several agents of the climate.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-11-22T21:41:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-24T23:51:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-24T23:51:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-01 / A produ??o de sal marinho no Rio Grande do Norte contribuiu significativamente para o desenvolvimento econ?mico e social do estado, por meio de gera??o de empregos, rendas e tributos pagos aos cofres p?blicos. Dependente de condi??es clim?ticas ideais, melhores desempenhos para essa atividade s?o observados em regi?es de latitudes baixas, caracterizadas por temperaturas elevadas e ventos constantes, al?m de baixo volume de precipita??o. Assim, sendo a produ??o de sal marinho dependente de condi??es clim?ticas, analisar, estatisticamente, as influ?ncias que o clima, suas variabilidades e mudan?as exercem sobre a produ??o desse mineral, foi o objetivo principal dessa tese. Para isso, a tese foi dividida em dois artigos. No artigo primeiro, o objetivo principal foi analisar a correla??o entre essas vari?veis clim?ticas e a produ??o de sal marinho, bem como estimar a intensidade com que varia o volume desse mineral em consequ?ncias de mudan?as clim?ticas, no munic?pio de Macau-RN. Os resultados mostraram correla??es positivas entre o volume produzido de sal marinho com a temperatura, horas de insola??o, evapora??o e velocidade do vento e, correla??es negativas com a precipita??o e umidade relativa. Em rela??o ?s mudan?as clim?ticas, constatou-se aumento no volume de sal marinho pelos quatro cen?rios de mudan?as clim?ticas previstas pelo IPCC no munic?pio de Macau-RN, sendo que o melhor cen?rio para a ind?stria de sal por evapora??o solar ? o RCP8.5. No artigo dois, o objetivo principal foi estimar o impacto econ?mico das mudan?as clim?ticas sobre a produ??o de sal marinho. Os resultados mostraram que as mudan?as clim?ticas poder?o impactar positivamente as receitas de vendas das ind?strias de sal marino no RN, em qualquer cen?rio de mudan?as clim?ticas, variando o aumento m?dio anual sobre essas receitas de vendas de 9,1227% pelo cen?rio RCP2.6 a 16,5350% pelo cen?rio RCP8.5, sendo poss?vel afirmar que as mudan?as clim?ticas projetadas pelo IPCC ir?o impactar positivamente a produ??o de sal marinho. / The production of sea salt in Rio Grande do Norte has contributed significantly to the social and economic development of the State, creating jobs, increasing incomes and adding to the public revenue through taxes. Climatic conditions that favor this activity are observed in regions of low latitude characterized by high temperatures and constant winds, as well as low precipitation. Thus, as the production of sea salt depends on climate conditions, the aim of this thesis is to analyze, statistically, how the influences of the climate variability and changes affect the production of this mineral. To this end, the thesis comprises two articles. In the first article, the main objective was to analyze the correlation between these climatic variables and the production of sea salt, as well as estimate the intensity with which the volume of this mineral varies as a result of climate change in the city of Macau, RN. The results show positive correlations between the volume of sea salt production and the temperature, hours of sunlight, evaporation and wind speed, and negative correlations with precipitation and relative humidity. In relation to climate changes, findings showed an increase in the volume of sea salt in four scenarios of climate change, which were presented by the IPCC, in the city of Macau, RN. Results showed that the best scenario for the salt industry proved to be solar evaporation at a rate of RCP8.5. In the second article, the main objective was to gauge the economic impact of climate change on sea salt production. The results showed that climate changes will generate a positive impact on the income from sales in the sea salt industry in RN, in all of the climate change scenarios. The average annual increase in income from sales in this industry is estimated at varying from 9.12% in scenario RCP2.6 to 16.53% in scenario RCP8.5, making it possible to affirm that the sea salt industry in RN will benefit from climate changes.