The increasing demand for food and fiber, the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as for environmental protection impose severe challenges on land systems worldwide. Solutions to support the transformation towards a sustainable development of land systems are needed. One response to the multiple challenges is the introduction of policy options aimed at steering land use activities towards a bundle of societal goals. However, it is difficult to empirically foresee the effectiveness and unintended consequences of policy options prior to their deployment. A second response is environmental education because human consumption behavior, among other factors, strongly influences natural ecosystems. However, it is a non-trivial task to develop effective communication strategies for complex topics such as sustainable land management. In both cases, modeling can help to overcome the different obstacles along the way. In this thesis, dynamic process-based social-ecological models at the individual scale are developed and analyzed to study effectiveness and unintended side effects of policy options, which promote agricultural management strategies and were intentionally designed to cope with multiple societal challenges. Two case studies of political intervention are investigated: the promotion of perennial woody crops in European agricultural landscapes for a sustainable bioeconomy and governmental supplementary feeding programs to cope with climate risks in pastoral systems in drylands. These two case studies are complemented by the development of a serious online game on sustainable land management in general that bridges the gap between land use modeling and environmental education. Simulation results of this thesis provide insights into (i) the performance of the politically promoted agricultural management strategies in meeting various intended goals such as poverty alleviation or the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services, (ii) the emergence of unintended (environmental and social) side effects such as land use conflicts, land degradation or cost explosion and (iii) the mitigation of such side effects by appropriately adjusting the design of the policy options. These insights are enabled by representing temporal as well as spatial variability in the developed models. Furthermore, different mechanistic approaches of transferability analyses based on stylized landscapes are developed and applied. They enable to check whether and in what respect policy impacts actually differ substantially between regional contexts, to identify what regional factors steer the impact and to derive indicators for grouping regions of similar policy impacts. Finally, based on a conducted survey-based evaluation and experiences from various applications, the value of the developed serious game for environmental education is revealed and discussed.Altogether, this thesis contributes to model-based decision support for steering transformation towards the sustainable development of land systems in an appropriate way. This is done by developing appropriate social-ecological modeling approaches, by performing specific policy impact analyses in two transformative agricultural systems using these models and by providing a model-based communication tool for environmental education.

Sous l’angle des controverses économiques et environnementales autour des hydrocarbures non conventionnels, cette thèse contribue au développement des outils de la modélisation intégrée sous deux aspects : leur capacité à représenter la dynamique de long terme des marchés de l’énergie ; la prise en compte des liens entre l’économie et la dynamique des différents gaz à effet de serre.Dans le premier cas, un jeu de simulations avec le modèle Imaclim-R met en évidence les impacts économiques du gaz et pétrole de schiste à travers (i) les liens entre trajectoires de crois-sance et inerties techniques ; (ii) la conditionnalité des gains de compétitivité des États-Unis aux stratégies implicites ou explicites de ce pays en matière de spécialisation internationale et de régime de change. Au détour de ces simulations nous étudions (α) les processus d’ajustement vers l’équilibre de long terme, en regardant les conditions d’obtention et de convergence des équilibres temporaires du modèle ; (β) les limites de tractabilitéd’une maquette stylisée du modèle reproduisant les mécanismes centraux.Dans le deuxième cas est traitée la question du rôle du méthane à court et long terme dans les stratégies climatiques. L’intégration du modèle réduit du système terrestre Oscar2.2 aumodèle Imaclim-R permet d’apprécier le rôle du méthane dans les coûts de l’atténuation et d’évaluer le risque d’émissions fugitives en tête de puits de gaz de schiste. Les simulations montrent que d’une part, l’avantage économique de la disponibilité en gaz de schiste peut être nuancé au regard du coût induit par ces émissions fugitives. D’autre part, les stratégies climatiques ambitieuses visant à limiter les augmentations de température bien en deçà de 2° voir 1.5°C nécessitent un contrôle plus immédiat des émissions de méthane. / From the perspective of economic and environmental controversies over unconventional oil and gas resources, this thesis contributes to the development of integrated modelling tools intwo aspects : their ability to reflect the long-term dynamics of energy markets ; and the consideration of the links between the economy and the dynamics of the various greenhouse gases.In the first case, a set of simulations with the Imaclim-R model highlights the economic impacts of shale gas and light tight oil through (i) the links between growth paths and technicalinertia ; (ii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on implicit or explained strategies ; and (iii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on this country implicit or explicit strategies in terms of international specialization and exchange rate regime. In the course of these simulations, we study (α) the adjustment processes towards the long-term equilibrium, looking at the conditions of existence and convergence of the model temporary equilibria ; (β) the tractability limits of a stylized model of Imaclim-R reproducing the main mechanisms.In the second case, the question of the role of methane in short and long term climate strategies is addressed. The integration of the Oscar2.2 Earth System model into the Imaclim-Rmodel is used to assess the role of methane in terms of mitigation costs and to assess the risk of emissions leakage at shale gas wellheads. The simulations show that, on the one hand, theeconomic advantage of shale gas availability can be balanced against the costs induced by these emissions leakage. On the other hand, the ambitous climate strategies aiming at limitingtemperature increases well below 2° or 1.5°C require a more instant control of methane.

The shrinking of permeable areas in favour of urban development is a phenomenon described in both scientific literature and policy documents. Changes in rainfall intensity and frequency following climate change are expected, but predicting the exact magnitude of these changes remains unclear. The uncertainty of what we will have to face in the future and when it will happen causes a blur of activities that may successively influence the mitigation of climate change. This study aims to explore and understand sustainable stormwater management within nature-based solutions (NBS) by reviewing both scientific and grey literature, as well as development plans in a specific area in southern Stockholm. Both risks and benefits of NBS implementation in urban stormwater management have been reviewed and described. Moreover, it is found in the literature that conceptual ambiguities and uncertainties of the NBS concept lead to weaker decision-making and planning processes. The goal of this study was to understand stormwater management recommendations for climate change mitigation, how these recommendations relate to detailed planning documents, what types of solutions are considered and proposed in the planning process, whether there is a link between the NBS and the proposed solutions, and finally, whether spatial analysis can help in the planning process in locating the strengths and weaknesses of the planned construction in flood-prone areas. The results of this study indicates whether the selected detailed development plans follow the recommendations of strategic documents. Detailed planning documents followed the recommendations to a limited extent. Moreover, in terms of spatial analysis, the analysed plans rarely referred to Skyfallsmodell, the model used to represent the flood-risk caused by 100-year rain event. In one of the cases of the early-stage detailed development plan, the new construction area were proposed inside an area with significant risk of flooding. The use of spatial analysis could help urban planners to identify both areas unsuitable for development and locate places suitable for NBS implementation. / Minskningen av genomsläppliga markområden till förmån för stadsutveckling är ett fenomen som beskrivs i både vetenskaplig litteratur och policydokument. Förändringar i nederbördsintensitet och storlek efter klimatförändringar förväntas, men det är fortfarande svårt att förutsäga den exakta storleken på dessa förändringar. Osäkerheten om vad vi kommer att behöva möta i framtiden och när det kommer att hända orsakar en oklarhet kring vilka aktiviteter som kommer att kunna påverka och mildra effekterna av klimatförändringarna. Denna studie syftar till att utforska och förstå hållbar dagvattenhantering genom naturbaserade lösningar (NBS) genom att granska både vetenskaplig och grå litteratur, samt utvecklingsplaner i ett specifikt område i södra Stockholm. Både risker och fördelar med NBS-implementering i urban dagvattenhantering har granskats och beskrivits. Dessutom framgår av litteraturen att begreppsmässiga oklarheter och osäkerheter i NBS-begreppet leder till svagheter i beslutsfattande och planeringsprocesser. Målet med denna studie var att förstå rekommendationer för dagvattenhantering för att mildra klimatförändringar, hur dessa rekommendationer relaterar till detaljerade planeringsdokument, vilka typer av lösningar som övervägs och föreslås i planeringsprocessen, om det finns en koppling mellan NBS och de föreslagna lösningarna, och slutligen - om rumslig analys kan hjälpa till i planeringsprocessen för att lokalisera styrkor och svagheter med den planerade konstruktionen i översvämningsutsatta områden. Resultaten av denna studie indikerar hur de valda detaljutvecklingsplanerna följer rekommendationerna i strategiska dokument. Detaljerade planeringshandlingar följde rekommendationerna i begränsad omfattning. Dessutom, när det gäller rumslig analys, hänvisade de analyserade planerna sällan till Skyfallsmodellen, som används för att representera översvämningsrisken orsakad av 100-årsregn. I ett av fallen med en tidig detaljplanen föreslogs nybyggnadsområdet inom ett område med stor risk för översvämning. Användningen av rumslig analys skulle kunna hjälpa stadsplanerare att identifiera både områden som är olämpliga för utveckling och att lokalisera platser som är lämpliga för implementering av NBS.

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The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the great threats of climate change. The chemical industry, including the pharmaceutical sector, is one of the significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), representing nearly 7% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. For this industry to reach net-zero emissions of CO2, measures beyond mitigation actions need to be taken. This thesis investigates the elimination of CO2 emissions in the Swedish pharmaceutical sector and evaluates the implementation of the rather new technology of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), using currently available amine-based post-combustion processes. This thesis presents a comprehensive assessment of different criteria based on the PESTLE (Political, Economical, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) framework and considers their relative importance from a company perspective. Two alternative scenarios based on the emissions goals set by the case company are developed and evaluated through this Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)-based PESTLE framework. BECCS deployment targeting net negative emissions would be preferable for the case company since it offers benefits in environmental, social and long-term economical aspects. From the economic aspect, the specific cost for capturing CO2 could be around 1281 SEK per tonne, higher than the present European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) price and typical investment cost for afforestation projects. Most opportunities are identified within the environmental and social aspects, but some economic, technological and regulatory challenges should be addressed to realise the BECCS implementation in the Swedish Pharmaceutical Industry. / Den senaste rapporten från Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change belyser de stora hoten med klimatförändringar. Den kemiska industrin, inklusive läkemedelssektorn, är en av de betydande bidragarna till de globala växthusgasutsläppen , som står för nästan 7 % av deglobala koldioxidutsläppen (CO2). För att denna industri ska nå nettonollutsläpp av CO2 måste åtgärder vidtas utöver begränsningsåtgärder. Detta examensarbete undersöker eliminering av CO2-utsläpp i den svenska läkemedelssektorn och utvärderarimplementeringen av den relativt nya teknologin, koldioxidlagring från biomassa, med hjälpav tillgängliga aminbaserade efterförbränningsprocesser. Detta examensarbete presenterar en omfattande bedömning av olika kriterier baserade på PESTLE (politiska, ekonomiska, sociala, tekniska, juridiska och miljömässiga) ramar och tar hänsyn till deras relativa betydelse ur ett företagsperspektiv. Två alternativa scenarier baserade på utsläppsmålen som ställts upp av företaget utvecklas och utvärderas genom detta multikriterie-baserade PESTLE-ramverket. Koldioxidlagring med inriktning på negativa utsläpp skulle vara att föredra för företaget eftersom det erbjuder fördelar i miljömässiga, sociala och långsiktiga ekonomiska aspekter. Ur den ekonomiska aspekten kan den specifika kostnaden för att fånga upp CO2 vara cirka 1 281 SEK per ton, högre än det nuvarande priset för Europeiska unionens utsläppshandelssystem (EU ETS) och den typiska investeringskostnaden för skogsplanteringsprojekt. De flesta möjligheter identifieras inom den miljömässiga och sociala aspekten, men vissa ekonomiska, tekniska och regulatoriska utmaningar bör lösas för att förverkliga implementeringen av koldioxidlagring i svensk läkemedelsindustri.

This dissertation investigates the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate change policies. Although most theoretical frameworks on policy adoption highlight the roles of extreme events as exogenous factors influencing policy change, most studies tend to focus on the effects of extreme events on policy change at the national level. Additionally, the existing theoretical frameworks explaining local policy adoption and public service provision do not pay attention to the roles of extreme events in local governments' policy choices. To fill those gaps, this dissertation explores the roles of natural disasters and political institutions on municipal governments' climate change policies. It does this by applying the theory of focusing events to local climate mitigation and adaptation actions. Based on the policy change framework, the political market model, and the institutional collective action frameworks, this dissertation develops and tests hypotheses to examine the effects of natural disasters and political institutions on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation policies. The dissertation uses 2010 National League of Cities (NLC) sustainability surveys and the 2010 International City/County Management Association (ICMA) sustainability survey to test the hypotheses. Analytical results show that floods and droughts influence local climate change policies and suggest that local governments can take advantage of extreme events when initiating a policy change. The results also suggest that political institutions can shape the effects of natural disasters on municipalities' climate mitigation and adaptation actions.

This study emanates from the worldwide issue of climate change, as well as the need for all nations to make an effort to reduce their carbon emissions and move towards greener economies. It delves into South Africa's current command-and-control environmental enforcement regime and highlights the pitfalls that allow major air polluters to avoid sanction of any form in many instances. This poor environmental enforcement and compliance effectively means that South Africa is unlikely to be capable of meeting targets set under international agreements. The study confirms that environmental enforcement is inadequately addressed in South Africa. This is attributable to the inherent shortcomings of command-and-control approaches, including that they are inflexible and offer few incentives for firms to modify behaviour to reduce emissions. Poor enforcement of environmental legislation results in negative externalities caused by air pollution being borne by people who did not create such pollution. The study therefore advocates the use of market-based mechanisms as an alternative to traditional command-and-control approaches to environmental enforcement. In light of the South African government's recent publication of the Draft Carbon Tax Bill, carbon taxes as a subset of market-based environmental enforcement mechanisms have the potential to better enforce the polluter pays principle. Mexico, arguably the most forward-thinking developing nation in terms of climate change mitigation, has taken numerous steps towards meeting international commitments, including the implementation of a carbon tax. While South Africa's proposed carbon tax does differ from Mexico's in some respects, the basic premise remains the same and some comparisons can be made in this regard, with accompanying lessons to be learned. Such lessons include that it is imperative that the carbon tax must be set at a high enough rate to meet international commitments whilst at the same time avoiding adverse economic effects, maintaining social welfare and stabilising economic output levels. The proposed carbon tax, while unable to achieve this on its own, is a good place to start and should be utilised in conjunction with the Draft Climate Change Bill to effectively and efficaciously bring about the required change. The proposed carbon tax undoubtedly has the potential to better hold major air polluters responsible for their CO2 and other GHG emissions. / Private Law / LL. M.

This thesis addressed the need for improved analysis and interpretation of primary meter half-hourly energy consumption data. The current work offers a novel benchmarking technique that was tested for 6 types of municipal buildings. This approach is different from conventional annual benchmarking mainly because it uses electricity and gas data in half-hourly periods, together with outside temperature data. A survey to European local authorities’ metering and monitoring practices was conducted in order to assess municipal energy managers' current procedures and needs in terms of data analysis to assess building energy performance and to identify potential energy saving opportunities. The benchmarking approach was developed considering the energy managers’ needs, but also the state-of the art in terms of building energy monitoring techniques, particularly building energy signatures, and the analysis techniques used on electricity grid demand forecasting. The benchmarking approach is based on the use of a metric composed of several indicators that are related to the load demand shape profile and the building energy signature. The comparison of indicators for buildings of the same type using standard scores identifies uncommon load demand profile characteristics and/or gas dependency on outside temperature in specific buildings. The metric is able to support the identification of potential energy wastage, which is linked to the detection of opportunities to save energy. The benchmarking technique was tested in 81 municipal building owned by Leicester City Council. This methodology can be applied to any non-domestic building equipped with primary meters for registering half-hourly electricity and gas consumption. In theory, this approach can also be applied to residential buildings, and to other short time series data types, for example quarter-hourly or 10 minutes interval data. The main contribution of this thesis is to improve the objectivity of building primary meter half-hourly electricity and gas consumption data analysis and interpretation by using quantitative parameters, instead of subjective visualisation techniques. The interpretation of building consumption data in short time series periods can now be streamlined, automated and perhaps incorporated in existing energy analysis software. This thesis raises questions that can lead to future research projects aiming to improve the metric and also to enlarge the scope of its application to national and European scale, to other building types and to other utilities.

Ethiopia is an agrarian country dominated by subsistence farming which is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study was therefore carried out to assess smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies followed to prevent vulnerability to climate change in the Medium and Upper highlands of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Data was collected from 300 sample smallholder farmers using questionnaire, key informant interviews, and Focus Group discussions with farmers and experts. The survey result showed that households differ in terms of asset endowments, vulnerability, and coping and adaptation capability to climate change. About 87.3% noticed climatic change and their perception of climatic variable attributes indicated about 75% felt a decline in the amount of rainfall, 52.6% stated early onset, about 66.6 % showed late on set, 84% expressed poor distribution of rainfall, high temperature (83.7%) and desiccating wind (52.7%). The major adaptation strategies employed by the majority of small holder farmers included enhancing traditional irrigation, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties, converting farm land to tree growing and relay cropping immediately after harvesting. The coping strategies to climate variability are largely related to migrating to urban areas, engaging in daily work, selling of fuel wood and asset while mitigation measures have focused on ecosystem rehabilitation. “Multi Nominal Logit” (MNL) model analysis indicated gender, education, off farm activity, farm size, ownership of oxen, farmer to farmer extension, access to credit and information on climate change as determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. Institutional support to farmers’ efforts to adapt to climate change is generally weak. The overall analysis leads to conclude that despite the presence of awareness on climate change and its likely impacts on livelihoods of the smallholder farmer, development intervention at local level are not systematically designed to address the problems of the resource poor farmers and environmental challenges. In the immediate future there is an urgent need to capitalize on existing awareness, document, package and disseminate successful adaptation interventions to farmers. As a long term solution it is recommended that institutions in charge of climate change need to develop a national drought and climate change management strategic plan with full accountability to facilitate ecosystem development, resilience against climate change and ultimately improvements in the livelihood of farmers. Such interventions could potentially be achieved by taking practical measures on policy support and Institutional building for climate change, knowledge management on adaptation to climate change, filling technological gaps related to agriculture including livestock husbandry in the context of climate change, applying innovative local level participatory land use planning and promoting livelihood diversification initiatives that could enable small holder farmers create assets to enhance their livelihoods. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environment Management)

Climate change has come to be understood as a deleterious phenomenon, which threatens business, society and ecological systems, thus making it imperative to understand its impact on human, social and economic activities as well as the impact of these activities on climate change. Against this background, this research sought to determine climate change intervention strategies in the mining supply chain in general, specifically focussing on opencast mining contracting and plant hire companies’ practices. This focus on the mining industry was driven by its importance in South Africa and globally, despite its significant direct and indirect contribution to climatic changes. The mixed-methods multiple case study focused on the climate change management of the Mutual Construction Company Group of Companies (MCCGC), an open cast toll mining firm and equipment supplier. Limited to two sites, Pilanesberg Platinum Mines (PPM) and Tharisa Minerals (Tharisa) Mines, the researcher gathered data through interviews, questionnaires, observations and document review. Data was analysed through deductive content analysis. The research made three major findings: (i) the MCCGC, like its principals PPM and Tharisa, does not have an explicit climate change management strategy. Instead, climate change is managed indirectly through implicit strategies seeking to manage environment, health and safety concerns of the mines, (ii) as a contractor, the MCCGC has had to adopt PPM and Tharisa’s implicit approach to climate change management strategies to meet contractual obligations, instead of an explicit approach and, (iii) the MCCGC and its principals’ commitment to environment, health and safety management, and implicitly climate change management, is not mere rhetoric but is being put into practice. The research concluded that MCCGC’s lack of expressed climate change management intentions and practices exposed the firm to climate change risks, most notably financial risks and reputation risks. Financial risks arise from possible ex post climate change liability. In addition, MCCGC is risking its contract tenures, particularly if the two mines change ownership and the new owners insist on an explicit rather than implied climate change strategy with all its suppliers. Reputational risks arise from the possible failure to attract new clientele and investors who may perceive MCCGC as a risky partner, due to an inept climate change intervention strategy / College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Management)