Nowadays, with the rapid expansion of increasing utilization of renewable energy sources, power grid is evolving into a much complex man-made system in the technological age. Under the new circumstances, traditional methodologies for power system security analysis are facing a serious challenge. For the past decade, many countries have experienced large blackouts, which expose potential problems of current models and methodologies in power industry. On the other hand, since the 9.11 event and frequent suicide bombing attacks in some countries, terrorism has become a major threat for national security. With the extensive growth of terrorism activities, power system, the significant critical infrastructure, probably becomes the target of terrorists. If this happens, the impact is dramatically severe and may yield more frequent blackouts. This Ph.D. thesis aims at developing some advanced models and methodologies for exploring the vulnerability of power system and protecting it against potential terrorism threat. The dissertation mainly consists of the following four parts. (1)Complex network theory based power system security and vulnerability analysis methodologies are introduced. Mathematically, an interconnected complex power grid can be described as a complex network of nodes connected by edges. Generally speaking, topology parameters of network structure include important information of the structure. That is to say, some critical nodes and lines can have significant impact on large-scale blackouts. The thesis will present a new methodology to recognize those critical nodes and lines in power grids. (2)Complex system theory based power grid security and vulnerability analysis methodologies are presented. Power grid is a complex dynamic evolutionary system over years with continuous expansion so as to underpin the ongoing increase of power demand. Some properties of complex systems may have important relationship with large-scale blackouts. In other words, there may be some stages of evolutionary power systems that would be more likely to cause large blackouts. The thesis will investigate the relationship to identify those critical stages of power grids. (3)Game theory is applied to methodologies for power system security and vulnerability analysis. Terrorists are often considered as fully intelligent and strategic actors who can even hire scientists and power engineers to seek the vulnerability of power systems and then launch a vital attack. Game theory does treat actors as fully strategic players and has been successfully applied to many disciplines including economics, political science and military. The thesis will present new models and analysis methods for protecting power systems under terrorism attacks. (4)Cyber security technology is considered in power system security and vulnerability analysis. It is known that information technology plays an import role in today and next generation grid. In this situation, cyber security should be an important issue. If it is vulnerable to malicious threats such as hackers and cyber-terrorists, power grid will not reach its full capabilities. The thesis will present an initial framework to reduce the vulnerability of power grid against potential cyber attack.

[Truncated abstract] In this thesis, I address the modelling and computer simulation of spatial, eventdriven systems from a computer science perspective. Spatially explicit models of wildland fire (wildfire) behaviour are addressed as the specific application domain. Wildfire behaviour is expressed as a formal model and the associated simulations are compared to existing models and implementations. It is shown that the in- teracting spatial automata formalism provides a general framework for modelling spatial event-driven systems and is appropriate to wildfire systems. The challenge adressed is that of physically realistic modelling of wildfire behaviour in heterogeneous environments . . . Many current models do not incorporate the influence of a neighbourhood (the geometry of the fire front local to an unburnt volume of fuel, for example), but rather determine the propagation of fire using only point information. Whilst neighbourhood-based influence of behaviour is common to cellular automata theory, its use is very rare in existing models of wildfire models. In this thesis, I present the modelling technique and demonstrate its applicability to wildfire systems via a series of simulation experiments, where I reproduce known spatial wildfire dynamics. I conclude that the interacting spatial automata formalism is appropriate as a basis for constructing new computer simulations of wildfire spread behaviour. Simulation results are compared to existing implementations, highlighting the limitations of current models and demonstrating that the new models are capable of greater physical realism.

Orientador: Hari Mohan Gupta / Banca: Gerson Antonio Santarine / Banca: Osvaldo Missiato / Resumo: Educação e aprendizado são assuntos de grande importância para a sociedade em vista do desenvolvimento tecnológico e do progresso social. No presente trabalho analisamos a distribuição estatística das notas dos candidatos ao vestibular (Exame de Admissão) da Academia da Força Aérea, situada em Pirassununga, Estado de São Paulo Brasil, onde se formam os Oficiais da Aeronáutica (Força Aérea Brasileira), entre os anos de 1999 a 2004, em busca de algumas características que indiquem o processo de aprendizagem em cada disciplina do vestibular. O exame de admissão consta de 4 disciplinas: Física, Matemática, Inglês e Português, todos com questões objetivas. Os candidatos melhor classificados são selecionados de acordo com o número de vagas determinado pelo Comando da Aeronáutica. Notou-se, claramente, que, nas disciplinas Física, Matemática e Inglês, as notas obedecem a uma distribuição do tipo Lei de Potência Gradualmente Truncada, como também foi observado anteriormente nas disciplinas, em conjunto, de Ciências Exatas e Biológicas. Na disciplina Português as notas obedecem a uma distribuição normal, resultado que se explica, considerando-se a dependência dos assuntos dados na área de Física, Matemática e Inglês (língua estrangeira) aos assuntos ministrados anteriormente, enquanto em Português, (língua materna) cada capítulo é relativamente independente. Também apresentamos sugestão para melhorar o ensino de ciências e matemáticas. / Abstract: Science and Mathematic Education is a subject of great importance for the society in sight of recent technological and social program. In the present work, we study the statistical distribution of the marks obtained by the candidates in entrance examination of Air Force Academy, which prepare officers for Brazilian Air Force and is situated at Pirassununga São Paulo, in the period of 1999-2004. Our object is to find some characteristics of the process of learning in various disciplines. The admission examination consist of four disciplines; Physics, Mathematics, English and Portuguese. The candidates are selected in accordance with the merit list in the examination and number of seats available as determined by the Air Force Command. We showed that in the discipline of Physics, Mathematics and English, the distribution of marks obtained is in accordance with Gradually Truncated Power Law as also have been reported earlier in Exact and Biological Sciences in University entrance examination. In Portuguese the Distribution is Normal. We explained these results considering importance of the understanding of material given previously to understand a new chapter in area of Physics, Mathematics and English as our foreign language. In the case of Portuguese (Native Language), each chapter is relatively independent and thus not require knowledge of previous chapters. We also presented some suggestions to improve the science and Mathematics Education at High School level. / Mestre

abstract: Critical care environments are complex in nature. Fluctuating team dynamics and the plethora of technology and equipment create unforeseen demands on clinicians. Such environments become chaotic very quickly due to the chronic exposure to unpredictable clusters of events. In order to cope with this complexity, clinicians tend to develop ad-hoc adaptations to function in an effective manner. It is these adaptations or "deviations" from expected behaviors that provide insight into the processes that shape the overall behavior of the complex system. The research described in this manuscript examines the cognitive basis of clinicians' adaptive mechanisms and presents a methodology for studying the same. Examining interactions in complex systems is difficult due to the disassociation between the nature of the environment and the tools available to analyze underlying processes. In this work, the use of a mixed methodology framework to study trauma critical care, a complex environment, is presented. The hybrid framework supplements existing methods of data collection (qualitative observations) with quantitative methods (use of electronic tags) to capture activities in the complex system. Quantitative models of activities (using Hidden Markov Modeling) and theoretical models of deviations were developed to support this mixed methodology framework. The quantitative activity models developed were tested with a set of fifteen simulated activities that represent workflow in trauma care. A mean recognition rate of 87.5% was obtained in automatically recognizing activities. Theoretical models, on the other hand, were developed using field observations of 30 trauma cases. The analysis of the classification schema (with substantial inter-rater reliability) and 161 deviations identified shows that expertise and role played by the clinician in the trauma team influences the nature of deviations made (p<0.01). The results shows that while expert clinicians deviate to innovate, deviations of novices often result in errors. Experts' flexibility and adaptiveness allow their deviations to generate innovative ideas, in particular when dynamic adjustments are required in complex situations. The findings suggest that while adherence to protocols and standards is important for novice practitioners to reduce medical errors and ensure patient safety, there is strong need for training novices in coping with complex situations as well. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Biomedical Informatics 2012

Dans cette thèse, après avoir expliqué l'historique et les concepts principaux de l’organisation lean dans différents contextes, le monde des systèmes complexes est exploré, puis il est montré pourquoi le lean est lui-même un système complexe. Un modèle novateur du lean est proposé sous forme d'ontologie, le Lean Organization Framework (LOF), qui peut être appliqué à toutes les formes d’organisations. Le LOF est testé avec celles qui ont déjà été explorées, proposant ainsi des pistes d’amélioration (lean pour la fabrication, pour l’IT, pour les soins de santé, pour la fonction publique, pour les organisations non gouvernementales, pour les start-ups et pour l’éducation). Il peut également être appliqué à de nouveaux domaines d’activités avec l’aide d’experts dans ces domaines, une approche montrée avec les exemples nouveaux d’une fondation lean et de l’architecture d’entreprise lean (Lean EA) mais aussi en comparant l’organisation lean au système immunitaire, un exemple bien connu de système complexe. Ensuite, un modèle de processus lean est proposé, présentant les propriétés émergentes d’un système complexe, le hoshin kanri (gestion des objectifs de l’organisation), y compris dans sa dimension culturelle. Les résultats de son expérimentation pratique avec l’application eHoshin sont discutés et un premier prototype en open source est présenté, déjà utilisé à ce jour par une centaine d’organisations dans le monde. Une seconde expérimentation plus robuste dans l’industrie (Toyota, dans plusieurs fonctions et entités juridiques) est exposée. Le modèle théorique est enfin amélioré sur base des résultats obtenus. En annexe, les concepts du lean sont expliqués avec leur application à six domaines de connaissance différents et les programmes de simulations sont listés. / In this thesis, after explaining the history and main concepts of the lean organization in various contexts, the world of complex systems is explored, then it is shown why the lean organization is itself a Complex System. A novel model of lean is proposed as an ontology, the Lean Organization Framework (LOF), which can be applied to all forms of organizations. The LOF is tested with those already explored (Lean Manufacturing, Lean IT, Lean Healthcare, Lean Government, Lean NGO, Lean Start-Up, Lean Education) and proposes ways to enhance them. It can also be applied to new domains with the help of subject matter experts, an approach that is checked with the novel cases of a Lean Foundation and Lean Enterprise Architecture (Lean EA), but also with the comparison of the lean organization with the immune system, a well-known Complex System example. Then, a model of lean process presenting the emergent properties of a Complex System is proposed: the hoshin kanri, or management of the organization objectives, including in its cultural dimension. The results of its practical implementation with the eHoshin application are discussed and a first open source prototype already used by around one hundred organizations in the world is explained. A second, more robust implementation in the industry is presented (at Toyota, extended to several departments and legal entities). Finally, the theoretical model is improved based on the experimentation results. In the appendices, the lean concepts are explained together with their application to six domains of knowledge and the simulation programs are listed.

Esta tese tem como problema de pesquisa “como analisar atividades e eventos na perspectiva da teoria dos sistemas cognitivos correlacionados com foco no trabalho e nos fenômenos emergentes das interações entre humanos e seus sistemas tecnológicos?” A partir disso, busca como objetivo, propor um protocolo para realização dessa análise. A pesquisa é realizada por meio de um estudo etnográfico no contexto da análise da atividade de cálculo das velocidades de decolagem em aeronaves de transporte comercial, sendo apresentada em cinco artigos. O primeiro descreve de que modos o campo da Engenharia de Sistemas Cognitivos (CSE) vem sendo constituído. Adicionalmente, é proposta uma agenda de pesquisa em sistemas socio‐técnicos complexos enfatizando a necessidade de trabalhos com o foco de análise nos fenômenos emergentes das interações, tomando o sistema cognitivo como unidade de análise. O segundo artigo visa à identificação e caracterização da atividade de cálculo das velocidades de decolagem e dos protótipos de falhas nessa atividade. Os resultados indicam a existência de fragilidades caracterizadas por 12 protótipos de falhas. O terceiro artigo tem por objetivo analisar o cálculo das velocidades de decolagem como um processo de cognição situada e distribuída, a fim de identificar possíveis vulnerabilidades nessa atividade. O estudo constatou quatro vulnerabilidades, vistas aqui muito mais como características nos processos da atividade: as representações ao nível do cockpit são sempre parciais e incompletas; algumas interações requerem, além da corporificação, interpretações; as interações entre os agentes não seguem um processo canônico de coordenação; e o controle da prevenção de falhas é preciso, porém, não é adequado. O quarto artigo descreve como a coordenação pode ser interpretada como um fenômeno cognitivo distribuído e situado em cockpit de aeronaves. Nesse sentido, o estudo parte da integração da perspectiva da teoria dos sistemas cognitivos correlacionados com quatro requisitos de coordenação descritos na literatura: representação compartilhada (common ground), interprevisibilidade, diretividade e sincronia. A automação, além dos pilotos, é concebida como um terceiro agente da cabine. Como resultados dessa integração, são propostos quatro modos de coordenação no cockpit, os quais ocorrem em diferentes etapas de um voo. O quinto artigo apresenta o protocolo para análise dos fenômenos emergentes resultantes de interações em sistemas cognitivos correlacionados A aplicação do protocolo é ilustrada por meio da análise do cálculo das velocidades de decolagem. Os resultados do estudo são usados para a avaliação do protocolo, segundo critérios de validade, confiabilidade, usabilidade e potencial para alavancagem de melhorias. / This thesis seeks to answer the research question “how to analyze activities and events in the perspective of joint cognitive systems as focused on the work and the phenomena emerging from interactions between humans and their technical system?” Hence, the study aims at proposing a protocol to carry out this analysis. The research is conducted by means of an ethnographic research in the context of the activity of takeoff speeds calculation in commercial transport aircraft, and is presented in five articles. The first one describes how the conceptual field of Cognitive Systems Engineering (CSE) has been made up. In addition, a research agenda in complex socio‐technical systems is proposed, emphasizing the need for the analysis of work with focus on phenomena emerging from interactions. The second article aims at identifying and characterizing the activity of take‐off speeds calculation and its prototypes of failure. The results indicate the existence of fragilities, that were organized in 12 prototypes of failure. The third article aims at analyzing take‐off speeds calculation as a situated and distributed process in order to identify possible vulnerabilities in this activity. The study has found four vulnerabilities, which are seen as characteristics of the process: the representations at the cockpit level are always partial and incomplete; some interactions require interpretations instead of corporifications; the interactions between agents do not follow a canonical coordination process; and the failure prevention control is accurate, although, not adequate. The fourth article describes how coordination may be interpreted as a situated and distributed phenomenon in the cockpit of an aircraft. In this respect, the study draws on the integration of the perspectives of joint cognitive systems theory with four coordination requirements described in the literature: shared representation (common ground), interpredictability, directability and synchrony. Automation, rather than only pilots, is conceived of as a third agent in the cabin. As a result of this integration, four modes of coordination in the cockpit are proposed, which occur at different stages of the flight. The fifth article presents a protocol for the analysis of emerging phenomena in joint cognitive systems. The application of the protocol is illustrated by means of the analysis of take‐off speeds calculation. The results of the study are used for the evaluation of the protocol, according to criteria of validity, reliability, usability and potential for the leverage of improvements.

O objetivo principal deste trabalho é apresentar um protocolo para avaliação de compatibilidade entre a gestão de procedimentos e a complexidade do sistema sócio-técnico em que esses são aplicados. Tal protocolo consiste das seguintes etapas: (a) delimitação do sistema sócio-técnico a ser estudado; (b) caracterização do sistema sócio-técnico; (c) caracterização da complexidade do sistema em estudo; (d) aplicação de dois tipos de questionários aos membros do sistema investigado; um deles destinado a avaliar a percepção em relação a um conjunto de princípios acerca de como os procedimentos deveriam ser gerenciados em um sistema complexo; outro destinado a avaliar a percepção acerca da extensão pela qual os princípios realmente são usados; (e) uma reunião de retorno dos resultados da avaliação aos membros do sistema sócio-técnico; (f) elaboração de recomendações para melhorar a gestão de procedimentos. A aplicação do protocolo é ilustrada por meio de um estudo de caso na sala de controle de uma refinaria de petróleo. / The main objective of this dissertation is to introduce a protocol for assessing the compatibility between the procedures management and the complexity of a socio-technical system in which these are applied to. This protocol consist of the following steps: (a) definition of the socio-technical system to be studied, (b) characterization of socio-technical system, (c) characterizing of the system under study complexity, (d) applying two questionnaires of different kinds to the members of the system investigated, one of them to assess the perceptions in relation to a set of principles about how the procedures should be managed in a complex system, and another designed to assess the perception of the extent to which the principles are actually used, (e) carrying out a return meeting of the assessment results to the members of socio-technical system, (f) developing of recommendations to improve management procedures. The application of the protocol is illustrated through a case study in an oil refinery control room.

No description available.

PAULA, Demétrius Ribeiro de. Dinâmica de redes neurais e formação de agregados em redes complexas. 2006. 90 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Física) - Programa de Pós-Graduação em Física, Departamento de Física, Centro de Ciências, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2006. / Submitted by Edvander Pires (edvanderpires@gmail.com) on 2014-11-03T18:54:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2006_dis_drpaula.pdf: 978829 bytes, checksum: 6f46a6d334b9c066ec1350d74f8beb77 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Edvander Pires(edvanderpires@gmail.com) on 2014-11-03T19:00:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2006_dis_drpaula.pdf: 978829 bytes, checksum: 6f46a6d334b9c066ec1350d74f8beb77 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-11-03T19:00:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2006_dis_drpaula.pdf: 978829 bytes, checksum: 6f46a6d334b9c066ec1350d74f8beb77 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / The process by which news trends and ideas propagate in social communities can have a profound impact in the life of individuals. To understand thi process, we introduce a competitive cluster growth model in complex networks. In our model, each cluster represents the set of individuals with a certain opinion or preference. We investigate how the cluster size distribution depends on the topology of the network and how it is affected by the number of initial seeds dispersed in the structure. We study our model using different network models, namely, the Erdos-Renyi geometry, the preferential attachment model, and the so-called Apollonian network. This last complex geometry displays a cluster size distribution that follows a power-law with an exponent 1.0. Similar results have been obtained for the distributions of number of votes per candidate in the proportional elections for federal representation in Brazil. In the second part of this work, we investigate the temporal behavior of neural networks with small world topology and in networks built according to the preferential attachment model. In the first case we study the effect of the range of connections on the behavior of the time series. In both topologies, we detect the existence of cycles and investigate how their periods depend on the size of the system. / Este dissertação foi dividida em duas partes, na primeira parte nós propomos um modelo de crescimento competitivo de gregados em redes complexas para simular a propagação de idéias ou opiniões em comunidades. Investigamos como as distribuições de tamanhos de agregados variam com a topologia de construção da rede e com o número de sementes aleatoriamente dispersas na estrutura. Para tal, analisamos redes do tipo de Erdos-Rényi, redes de contato preferencial e a chamada rede Apoloniana. Esta última apresenta distribuições de tamanho de agregado em forma de uma lei de potência com um expoente aproximadamente 1. Resultados similares são observados com as distribuições obtidas para as frações de votos por candidato às eleições proporcionais para deputados no Brasil. Na segunda parte, analisamos o comportamento temporal da atividade neural em redes com características de mundo pequeno e em redes construídas segundo o modelo do contato preferencial. Nesta primeira topologia, estudamos como a série temporal se comporta com a variação do alcance das conexões. Em ambas as topologias, observamos a formação de períodos e investigamos como estes variam com o tamanho da rede.

SILVA, Luís Eduardo Araripe Gomes da. Efeitos coletivos em eleições e jogos. 2007. 112 f. Tese (Doutorado em Física) - Programa de Pós-Graduação em Física, Departamento de Física, Centro de Ciências, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2007. / Submitted by Edvander Pires (edvanderpires@gmail.com) on 2015-06-08T18:55:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2007_tese_leagsilva.pdf: 1036296 bytes, checksum: f2c061ea0da08749fc44ba00c9d4ead3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Edvander Pires(edvanderpires@gmail.com) on 2015-06-08T18:58:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2007_tese_leagsilva.pdf: 1036296 bytes, checksum: f2c061ea0da08749fc44ba00c9d4ead3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-08T18:58:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2007_tese_leagsilva.pdf: 1036296 bytes, checksum: f2c061ea0da08749fc44ba00c9d4ead3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / In this work we investigate some collective phenomena emerging from the interaction between individuals in a group or society. The approach is the same one used in statistical mechanics. Basically, we use the techniques and models that are well known in the subject of critical phenomena and statistical mechanics out of equilibrium. First, we studied the collective behavior of a population in an electoral process. In particular, we have analyzed the Brazilian elections from 1998 to 2006. In this study, we analyzed the performance of candidates in a proportional election. We have shown that the vote distributions of the candidates follows a power law for two orders of magnitude, and it is the same no matter the year of the election or different regions of the country. In order to verify the influence of the parties in the election we also analyzed the results using a electoral coefficient and compared our results to legislative elections in some European countries. We also studied majority elections, for that we have used a fragmentation model as an attempt to reproduce the result for mayor elections in the Brazilian cities. The model can gives a good indication about the strategic voting in these kind of election. This study of how people choose their candidates drive us to analyze the emergence of patterns in groups of people playing games with adaptable agents. Therefore, we investigate here the forecasting game, a game where people make prediction about some events. Furthermore, we applied the forecasting game to study ways of how to improve the search tools on the internet. In both cases, we observed a rich scenario where phase transitions happen depending on the fraction of agents using some strategy. / Neste trabalho investigamos alguns fenômenos coletivos que surgem a partir das interações entre os indivíduos que formam uma população. Para isso utilizamos técnicas da mecânica estatística e modelos e análises que são comuns no estudo de fenômenos críticos e de sistemas fora do equilíbrio. A primeira manifestação coletiva estudada foi o resultado das eleições brasileiras dos anos de 1998, 2002, 2004 e 2006. Uma investigação a respeito da estatística do desempenho dos candidatos a deputado estadual mostrou que a distribuição de votos segue uma lei de potência com um expoente universal que se mantém o mesmo para diferentes eleições e diferentes regiões geográficas. Em uma análise considerando a estrutura partidária, pudemos verificar que existem diferenças entre as eleições brasileiras que estudamos com as eleições legislativas de alguns países europeus. Também utilizamos um modelo de fragmentação na tentativa de reproduzir os dados das eleições municipais estudadas. Sugerimos que um modelo de quebra possa ser utilizado para dar uma informação, de maneira quantitativa, a respeito da quantidade de votos estratégicos que foram utilizados. Esse estudo de eleições, ou melhor, de como as pessoas escolhem seus candidatos, nos levou a analisar o surgimento de padrões em grupos de pessoas utilizando jogos envolvendo agentes adaptativos. Para isso estudamos uma situação onde os agentes devem fazer uma previsão a respeito de um evento futuro. Além disso, mostramos uma aplicação desse jogo de previsão que tem como objetivo melhorar o desempenho das ferramentas de busca na internet. Em ambos estes modelos observamos um rico cenário envolvendo transições de fase em função da fração de agentes utilizando uma determinada estratégia.