One purpose of the national Model Cities Program was to reduce the incidence of crime and delinquency in poverty blighted areas to levels prevailing in the remainder of the community. A measurable goal projected by the Austin program was to reduce crime in its Model City Area (in comparison to the rest of the city) by at least 8.73 per cent during the operational years of the program. The central problem of the study was to examine the relationships between official crime rates in the Austin Model City Area in comparison to residual areas of the city. Robbery, burglary, and auto theft rates were singled out for intensive study over the six year operational period of the program to see if they were converging with comparable rates in the rest of the city. Ultimate implication: the Model Cities Program was probably a contributing factor in the reduction of selected crimes in the Model Neighborhood and census tracts containing it.

This dissertation examines the use of statistical models for prediction. Examples are drawn from public policy and chosen because they represent pressing problems facing U.S. governments at the local, state, and federal level. The first five chapters provide examples where the perfunctory use of linear models, the prediction tool of choice in government, failed to produce reasonable predictions. Methodological flaws are identified, and more accurate models are proposed that draw on advances in statistics, data science, and machine learning. Chapter 1 examines skyscraper construction, where the normality assumption is violated and extreme value analysis is more appropriate. Chapters 2 and 3 examine presidential approval and voting (a leading measure of civic participation), where the non-collinearity assumption is violated and an index model is more appropriate. Chapter 4 examines changes in temperature sensitivity due to global warming, where the linearity assumption is violated and a first-hitting-time model is more appropriate. Chapter 5 examines the crime rate, where the independence assumption is violated and a block model is more appropriate. The last chapter provides an example where simple linear regression was overlooked as providing a sensible solution. Chapter 6 examines traffic fatalities, where the linear assumption provides a better predictor than the more popular non-linear probability model, logistic regression. A theoretical connection is established between the linear probability model, the influence score, and the predictivity.

Submitted by Ana Luísa Azevedo (al_va@ig.com.br) on 2012-10-23T15:36:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ana Luísa V. de Azevedo Versão Definitiva.pdf: 3697951 bytes, checksum: ec2ddf47209099cbd2113c36e0ed5ec7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2012-10-24T16:07:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ana Luísa V. de Azevedo Versão Definitiva.pdf: 3697951 bytes, checksum: ec2ddf47209099cbd2113c36e0ed5ec7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-10-25T16:14:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ana Luísa V. de Azevedo Versão Definitiva.pdf: 3697951 bytes, checksum: ec2ddf47209099cbd2113c36e0ed5ec7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-25T16:18:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ana Luísa V. de Azevedo Versão Definitiva.pdf: 3697951 bytes, checksum: ec2ddf47209099cbd2113c36e0ed5ec7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-09-28 / This study had as an objective to analyze the usage of criminal statistics on the planning of police activities in the state of Rio de Janeiro, identifying the possibilities and the difficulties for that use by the perceptions of the professionals in public safety involved in this process. Having as a starting point the assumption that, although there already is a movement in favor of the utilization of criminal statistics in Rio de Janeiro, the practice of its utilization in the forms of the contemporary engagements of policies of public safety is harmed by cultural resistance from the people who are involved and by problems that concern the structure of public safety, such as insufficient resources, both material and human. Such thesis was defended having as foundation the triangulation of the theoretic referential that was adopted and by documental and field research. The field research was made by interviewing civil policemen, military policemen, analysts and public manager involved in these instruments of analysis. Investigation results lead to the conclusion that in Rio de Janeiro criminal statistics is already being used, which can be noted by the implementation of the System of Goals for the Strategic Indicators of Criminality in the State. Nevertheless it was possible to note that the use of statistics encounters barriers, not only technical, but human as well, because it deals with the interests of the multiple actors involved. This way, having as the Kingdon decisive process as background, the pretext that this theme needs to be inserted in the Governmental Decisive Agenda, with the proposal of public policies that guarantee solid condition (both human and material resources) for the use of criminal statistics and actions that have the diminishing of the resistance to such practices as a goal, with measures that stimulate the integration between the different actors that take part in the process. / O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar o uso das estatísticas criminais no planejamento das atividades policiais no estado do Rio de Janeiro, identificando as possibilidades e as dificuldades para este uso segundo as percepções dos profissionais de segurança pública envolvidos neste processo. Partiu-se da hipótese que embora já haja um movimento para utilização das estatísticas criminais no estado do Rio de Janeiro, na prática a sua utilização nos moldes das abordagens contemporâneas de políticas de segurança pública é prejudicada por resistências culturais dos atores envolvidos e por problemas de natureza estrutural, como insuficiência de recursos materiais e humanos. Tal tese foi defendida tendo por base a triangulação do referencial teórico adotado e das pesquisas documental e de campo desenvolvidas. A pesquisa de campo foi realizada por meio de entrevistas em profundidade com policiais civis, policiais militares, analistas e gestores públicos envolvidos com o uso deste instrumento de análise. Os resultados da investigação permitiram concluir que no estado do Rio de Janeiro já ocorre de fato o uso dos dados estatísticos criminais, marcado principalmente pela implementação do Sistema de Metas para os Indicadores Estratégicos de Criminalidade do Estado. Não obstante, evidenciou que na prática o uso das estatísticas encontra barreiras não só de natureza técnica, como de natureza subjetiva, pois lida com interesses de múltiplos atores envolvidos. Deste modo, tendo com pano de fundo o modelo de processo decisório de Kingdon, chegou-se ao pressuposto de que este tema precisa ser inserido na agenda decisória governamental, com propostas de políticas públicas que garantam as condições concretas (materiais e de recursos humanos) para o uso das estatísticas criminais e ações que visem minimizar as resistências encontradas na prática, com medidas que estimulem a integração entre os diferentes atores inseridos neste processo.

Research was completed on a 300-person sample of 1985 arrestees in Jacksonville, Florida. The original focus of the study was to explore the possible relationship between crime and chemical use. Data was obtained from forms that were routinely used in the jail booking and interview process. Two booking/intake forms were used: The Arrest and Booking Report and the Medical Screening Information (P-075) form. Only 24 arrestees in the 300-person sample admitted to using chemicals. Hence, the data did not support the hypothesis of this thesis that a correlational relationship exists between crime and chemical use. This researcher observed and interviewed medical personnel closely and reviewed both forms used in the study to determine why chemical use data was under-represented in the sample. Organizational and individual deviance by the medical staff was discovered. The nurses had not asked chemical use questions during a majority of the medical screening interviews.

The study was aimed at exploring the relationship between poverty and aggravated robbery in Limpopo Province. Sampled secondary data of aggravated robbery of- fenders, obtained from the South African Police (SAPS), Polokwane, was used in the analysis. From empirical researches on poverty and crime, there are some deductions that vulnerability to crime is increased by poverty. Poverty set was categorised by gender, employment status, marital status, race, age and educational attainment. Variables for aggravated robbery were house robbery, bank robbery, street/common robbery, carjacking, truck hijacking, cash-in-transit and business robbery. Canonical correlation analysis was used to make some inferences about the relationship of these two sets. The results revealed a signi cant positive correlation of 0.219(p-value = 0.025) between poverty and aggravated robbery at ve per cent signi cance level. Of the thirteen variables entered into the poverty-aggravated model, ve emerged as sta- tistically signi cant. These were gender, marital status, employment status, common robbery and business robbery. / Mathematical Sciences / M. Sc. (Statistics)

Submitted by William Justo Figueiro (williamjf) on 2015-07-21T23:37:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 70c.pdf: 7193085 bytes, checksum: 9d1949632c4e358f32e7f53a62d89d67 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-21T23:37:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 70c.pdf: 7193085 bytes, checksum: 9d1949632c4e358f32e7f53a62d89d67 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-22 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / SINPRO/RS - Sindicato dos Professores do Ensino Privado do Rio Grande do Sul / De uma colônia inicialmente sem maior importância, o Brasil tornou-se um dos protagonistas no novo cenário mundial. É preciso agora que essa evolução alcance o Direito Penal, com suporte na Constituição Federal de 1988. No entanto, é necessário conferir ao texto constitucional uma função transformadora, com destaque à busca da concretização de uma Constituição Dirigente (e Compromissória), passando pelas discussões em torno do neoconstitucionalismo, até alcançar o Constitucionalismo Contemporâneo. A mudança de um governo autoritário para uma democracia obriga a uma revisão de todo o sistema repressivo, especialmente o jurídico-penal, sem que se desconsiderem as necessárias reflexões acerca das influências da globalização, da sociedade do risco e da expansão do Direito Penal, ainda não suficientemente compreendidos. No que tange aos crimes de colarinho branco, existe uma grande polêmica em torno da sua definição, alternando correntes subjetivas (que levam em conta as características do agente), objetivas (com base no modus operandi) e mistas. A ideia de que os poderosos recebem um tratamento benevolente por parte da Justiça penal é tão frequente que a tarefa de justificá-la é muito mais complexa do que poderia parecer à primeira vista, sendo inclusive contrariada por algumas análises recentes. Para a investigação realizada na presente tese, foram usadas como parâmetro seis categorias de crimes com maior identificação em relação aos crimes de colarinho branco: crimes contra o sistema financeiro nacional, crimes contra a ordem tributária, crimes contra a ordem econômica, crimes licitatórios, crimes contra a ordem previdenciária e lavagem de dinheiro. Em relação ao processo de criminalização primária, constatou-se que a média de apenamento dos crimes de colarinho investigados (41,93 meses), é 61% superior à média dos crimes patrimoniais sem violência ou grave ameaça (25,94 meses), afastando um mito difundido no senso comum. Ademais, a legislação penal produzida após 1988, intencionalmente ou não, realiza uma consolidação jurídico-penal do conteúdo normativo da Constituição Federal, especialmente no que tange aos bens jurídicos supra-individuais vinculados aos colarinhos brancos, seja pelo número de leis criadas ou modificadas, seja pelas penas previstas. Da mesma forma, os projetos legislativos em relação à temática possuem a mesma tendência de incremento punitivo. No que tange ao processo de criminalização secundária, ganha especial destaque o COAF, que centraliza todas as comunicações, inclusive as previamente encaminhadas aos demais órgãos (BACEN, CVM, SUSEP e PREVIC). As operações realizadas pela Polícia Federal, em relação aos crimes de colarinho branco, aumentaram 1.500% entre os anos de 2003 e 2010. No entanto, entre 2006 e 2012, o número de inquéritos policiais instaurados pelo órgão foi reduzido em 60%. O Ministério Público não possui informações unificadas sobre denúncias oferecidas. Em relação ao Judiciário brasileiro, entre os anos de 2000 e 2012, não só os crimes de colarinho branco ensejaram um maior número de decisões nos tribunais pesquisados, como também resultaram em um número muito grande de decisões condenatórias, bastante superior ao de absolvições e extinções da punibilidade. A execução penal, no entanto, continua com o perfil de presos jovens, pardos, com grau de instrução baixo, e que cometem (principalmente) crimes contra o patrimônio. / Of a colony without greater importance, Brazil has become one of the protagonists on new world scenario. Now it’s necessary that this evolution reaches the Criminal Law, supported in 1988 Constitution. However, it’s necessary to give constitutional text a transforming function, with emphasis on the pursuit of achieving a Leadind (and Compromissory) Constitution, passing through discussions around neoconstitutionalism, until reaching Contemporary Constitutionalism. The change from an authoritarian government to a democracy requires a review of the whole repressive system, especially the criminal legal, without disregard the necessary reflections concerning the globalization, risk, society and criminal law expansion influences, not yet sufficiently understood. With regard to white collar crimes, there is great polemics concerning its definition, by switching subjectives (which take into account the agent characteristics), objectives (based on modus operandi) and mixed currents. The idea that the powerful ones receive a benevolent treatment by the criminal justice is so frequent that the task of justify it is much more complex than it might seem view, being including contradicted by some recent analyzes. For the investigation carried out this thesis were used as a parameter six categories of crimes with greater identification with respect to white collar crimes: crimes against the national financial system, the tax system crimes, crimes against the economy, bidding crimes, crimes against the social security and money laundering. Regarding the process of primary criminalization, it was observed that the entrapment average on the white collar crimes investigated (41.93 months) is 61% higher than the property without violence or serious threat (25.94 months) crimes average, moving away a myth spread by common sense. Besides, criminal legislation produced after 1988, intentionally or not, makes a criminal legal normative consolidation of the Federal Constitution content, especially with respect to the supraindividual legal assets linked to white collars, either by the number of laws created or modified, either by the penalties provided. In the same way, legislative projects in relation to the theme have the same tendency to puniteve increase. Regarding the secondary criminalization process, gain special prominence COAF, which centralizes all communications, including those previously forwarded to other agencies (Central Bank, CVM, SUSEP and PREVIC). The operations performed by the Federal Police in relation to the white collar crimes, increased 1,500% between 2003 and 2010. However, between 2006 and 2012, the number of police inquiries initiated by the agency was reduced by 60%. The Public Prosecution Service does not have unified information about complaints offered. Regarding the Brazilian Judiciary, between the years 2000 and 2012, not only white collar crimes not only white collar crimes gave rise to a higher number of decisions in the surveyed courts, as well as resulted in a very large number of condemnatory decisions, far higher than acquittals and extinction of criminal liability. The criminal enforcement, however, continues with the profile of young prisoners, browns, with low education level, and that commit (mostly) crimes against property.

The aim of the dissertation is to study the problem definitions and the governmental rationality of new activities aimed at reforming criminals, the poor and workers in Sweden during the mid-1800s. Three case studies analyse the solitary confinement penitentiary, the district visiting poor relief and the bildung-society for workers. A fourth case study analyses the introduction of crime statistics and prison photography. I argue that these different activities were part of the historical process that have been characterised as ”the birth of the social” and the new governmental rationality, ”liberal governmentality”. The initiators presupposed that civilisation had negative behavioural consequences among the lower classes. At the same time they expressed optimism regarding new fostering instances and how such could be integrated to a mutually supporting network. The aims of the new reformatory principles were regularly described as capacities for self-reflection, self-regulation and self-control among the lower classes. The dissertation shows that the new activities localised and defined a new set of problems and questions in terms of the social. ”Society” was what was to be protected as its ”inner” relationships were described as going through comprehensive historical changes. The ambition to lead, manage and organise the behaviours and values of the lower classes was even more far-reaching than was the desire to exert direct discipline. Order, well being and morals were integrated in a field of problems where effects on the lifestyles of the lower classes constituted the ultimate authoritative body.

The study was aimed at exploring the relationship between poverty and aggravated robbery in Limpopo Province. Sampled secondary data of aggravated robbery of- fenders, obtained from the South African Police (SAPS), Polokwane, was used in the analysis. From empirical researches on poverty and crime, there are some deductions that vulnerability to crime is increased by poverty. Poverty set was categorised by gender, employment status, marital status, race, age and educational attainment. Variables for aggravated robbery were house robbery, bank robbery, street/common robbery, carjacking, truck hijacking, cash-in-transit and business robbery. Canonical correlation analysis was used to make some inferences about the relationship of these two sets. The results revealed a signi cant positive correlation of 0.219(p-value = 0.025) between poverty and aggravated robbery at ve per cent signi cance level. Of the thirteen variables entered into the poverty-aggravated model, ve emerged as sta- tistically signi cant. These were gender, marital status, employment status, common robbery and business robbery. / Mathematical Sciences / M. Sc. (Statistics)

This study examines the construction of crime reality by The Voice and The Midweek Sun newspapers by means of a content analysis and involved the exploration of violent crime news reporting, measured against police statistics. The two publications, The Midweek Sun, and The Voice newspapers, were quantitatively and qualitatively analysed to identify the types of violent crimes reported and to determine any differences they may have compared to the Botswana Police crime records, between themselves, and on how they framed or depicted violent crimes. The results were collected using a coding sheet, new story analysis form and analysed against official police records to determine any inconsistencies that may have existed between the crimes covered by two newspapers and police statistics. The qualitative analysis involved a coding sheet to identify lexical features and rhetorical devices in the headlines. The lexical units included compound words and fuzzy words. The rhetorical elements scrutinised included metaphors, alliteration, rhyme, puns, and idioms. The research analysed the news headlines. The study will assist in shedding light on the accuracy of crime news reporting, levels of sensationalism, overreporting or underreporting of violent crimes. / Communication Science / M.A. (Communication)

Cette thèse compare le traitement judiciaire de l’homosexualité masculine sous le national-socialisme dans un territoire du « vieux Reich » (Bade) et un territoire annexé de facto (Alsace), en examinant le rôle des acteurs du système judiciaire au sens large (législateurs, population, policiers, experts médico-légaux, procureurs, juges) et les réactions des inculpés. Cette étude de cas, qui porte sur les pratiques comme sur les discours et les représentations de chacun, est replacée dans ses contextes nationaux (Allemagne, France) et dans le temps long pour mettre en valeur les spécificités régionales et les ruptures temporelles. Elle démontre qu’en dépit de la radicalisation législative et de l’explosion des condamnations, l’application judiciaire du programme répressif national-socialiste a été en partie entravée par le relatif manque d’engagement de certains acteurs répressifs, ce qui a laissé des « espaces de liberté » homosexuels, et qu’elle a été variable selon les territoires. Ces variations dépendent toutefois plus des acteurs et de leur engagement répressif que des traditions répressives régionales ou des contextes politico-administratifs. / This thesis compares the judicial treatment of masculine homosexuality in national-socialist times in a territory of the “old” Reich (Baden) and in a territory annexed de facto (Alsace). The focus is set on the role of the different actors of the repression (law-makers, population, medical experts, policemen, persecutors, judges) and the reactions of the suspects. This case-study looks at the practice as well as the discourse and representation of each group over the long-term by taking into account the national contexts (France, Germany) to highlight the regional particularities and the moments of change. The thesis shows that despite the repressive turn of the legislation and the increasing number of condemnations, the repression could in practice be slowed down by the lack of engagement of certain parties, differing between territories. This attitude led to the creation of ‘homosexual spaces of freedom’. The degree of repression was highly dependent on the people involved and their willingness to follow a repressive line of action; the legislative and judicial traditions of each region and the political and administrative contexts had thus a limited impact.