A central topic in behavioural finance is extensive trading. One of the most common behav- ioural explanations for this phenomenon is overconfidence. In finance, overconfident traders feel that their information is sufficient to justify a trade even though it is not. Investors who consider themselves to be above average in their level of expertise show higher trading volumes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the trading volume in the financial markets increased significantly. Further, young and inexperienced traders entered financial markets and volatility increased. Overconfidence could provide explanations for some of these financial market particularities. The study of Glaser and Weber (2007), which investigates the correlation of overconfidence and trading volume, lays the foundation for this study. We extend their research with a survey testing the degree of overconfidence and trading volume during COVID-19. The central aim of the thesis is to investigate to what extent overconfidence influences the trading volume during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is unable to show a significant positive effect of overconfidence on the trading volume during COVID-19. But our research supports the findings that younger and inexperienced traders entered the market during 2020, who are on average more overconfident than experienced traders. The results further show that retail investors with more than two years of trading experience have significantly increased their trading volume during COVID-19. The analysis also provides evidence that during the COVID- 19 pandemic, traders who assign themselves above average within their investment skills traded significantly more.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marlon de Freitas Bezerra.pdf: 7340215 bytes, checksum: bbf6d61a3bb55dbd62475efb4a83763b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-04-22 / As a starting point and main motivation the strong growth of the Brazilian international trade and the resumption of public and private investment in economic infrastructure. These factors lead us to the conclusion that the Brazilian port sector is fundamentally strategic and has undergone profound changes in their structures, given the need for modernization in the context of the new global economic reality imposed by globalization. The focus of this study focuses on recent economic developments in ports and in more detail in its laws and regulations, in order to identify potential obstacles that present themselves for investments. Therefore, addressed the current configuration of the institutional framework of the Brazilian port system, which gave the repeal of Law 8,630 / 93 (Ports Law) by the Provisional Measure No. 595 ("MP 595"), 06 December 2012, converted into so-called "new law of ports", law No. 12,815 - new regulatory framework for the sector, June 5, 2013, analyzing the main changes and consequences to public and private investment. Following it holds the effective characterization of each of the 32 ports involved with Brazil's foreign trade in 2012, generating the port ranking across six economic variables used to characterize and rank Brazilian ports are: 1. Porte; 2. Influence Area (Hinterland); 3. Participation in International Trade; 4. Products Busiest by Economic Sectors; 5. Field National Work, Regional or Local; 6. Value-added of Eastern Busiest producer. Thus, it was possible to capture more properly the weight that each economic variable has for each port individually, and its relevance to the national port ranking as a whole / Como ponto de partida e motivação principal o forte crescimento do comércio internacional brasileiro e a retomada de investimentos públicos e privados na infraestrutura econômica. Estes fatores nos levam à constatação de que o setor portuário brasileiro é fundamentalmente estratégico e tem passado por profundas alterações em suas estruturas, dada a necessidade de sua modernização no contexto da nova realidade econômica mundial imposta pela mundialização. O foco do presente estudo centra-se na evolução econômica recente dos portos e, mais detalhadamente, na sua legislação e regulamentação, de modo a identificar potenciais entraves que se apresentam para os investimentos. Para tanto, abordou-se a configuração atual do quadro institucional do sistema portuário brasileiro, que se deu com a revogação da Lei 8.630/93 (Lei dos Portos) por meio da Medida Provisória N° 595 ( MP 595 ), de 06 de dezembro de 2012, posteriormente convertida na chamada nova lei dos portos , lei N° 12.815 - novo marco regulatório do setor, de 05 de junho de 2013, analisando suas principais alterações e consequências ao investimento público e privado. Na sequência, realiza-se a efetiva caracterização de cada um dos 32 portos envolvidos com o comércio externo do Brasil no ano de 2012, gerando o ranking portuário através de seis variáveis econômicas utilizadas para caracterizar e elencar os portos brasileiros são: 1. Porte; 2. Área de Influência (Hinterlândia); 3. Participação no Comércio Internacional; 4. Produtos Movimentados por Setores Econômicos; 5. Campo de Atuação Nacional, Regional ou Local; 6. Valor Agregado Médio dos Produtos Movimentados. Assim, foi possível captar com mais propriedade o peso que cada variável econômica possui em relação a cada porto, individualmente, e sua relevância para o ranking portuário nacional como um todo

Στη παρούσα μελέτη, αρχικά παρουσιάζονται από θεωρητική πλευρά θέματα που αφορούν το ρυθμιστικό πλαίσιο, τον πιστωτικό κίνδυνο, τα μη εξυπηρετούμενα δάνεια και οι έννοιες Ευρωζώνη και Ευρωσύστημα. Ακολούθως, με τη χρήση ενός οικονομετρικού μοντέλου επιχειρήθηκε ο προσδιορισμός των παραγόντων εκείνων που επηρεάζουν τον δείκτη μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων στην Ευρωζώνη. Ο δείκτης των μη εξυπηρετούμενων δανείων ουσιαστικά συνιστάται ως προσεγγιστική μεταβλητή του πιστωτικού κινδύνου και την περίοδο αυτή της παρατεταμένης ύφεσης αποτελεί ενδεχομένως τη μεγαλύτερη απειλή που αντιμετωπίζουν τα διάφορα τραπεζικά συστήματα όλου του κόσμου. Χρησιμοποιώντας συγκεντρωτικά δεδομένα (aggregate data) σε ένα πάνελ 13 χωρών της Ευρωζώνης για την περίοδο 2000-2008 και με την βοήθεια της fixed effect προσέγγισης, εντοπίστηκαν ισχυρές συσχετίσεις μεταξύ του NPL και διαφόρων μακροοικονομικών και τραπεζικών (banκ specific) παραγόντων. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, τα ευρήματα της εμπειρικής διερεύνησης, επιβεβαιώνουν τη διεθνή βιβλιογραφία καθώς από πλευράς τραπεζικών μεταβλητών ισχυρή επίδραση στο δείκτη μη εξυπηρετούμενων δάνειων εμφανίζει ο δείκτης κεφαλαιακής επάρκειας, ο δείκτης δάνεια προς καταθέσεις και ο δείκτης των μη εξυπηρετούμενων της προηγούμενης χρονιάς. Τέλος, από μακροοικονομικής πλευράς το δημόσιο χρέος και η ανεργία φαίνεται να είναι δυο επιπλέον παράγοντες που επιδρούν στη διαμόρφωση του δείκτη, αποτυπώνοντας ότι η κατάσταση της οικονομίας των χωρών της ευρωζώνης συνδέεται άρρηκτα με τον δείκτη NPL. / In this study, from the theoretical point of you, issues regarding regulation, credit risk, non-performing loans, Eurozone and Eurosystem are presented. Then, implementing an econometric model it was examined which factors influence the ratio of nonperforming loans in the Eurozone. It is worthwhile to mention that the ratio of NPLs can be used as a proxy of credit risk. Nowadays, credit risk seems to be the greatest risk, which banking systems are facing all over the world. Particularly, Using aggregate data on a panel of 13 countries for the period 2000-2008 and applying the fixed effect approach, strong correlations between the NPL and various macroeconomic and bank specific factors are confirmed. Our findings largely agree with the literature as, in terms of bank-specific variables, the capital ratio, the loans to deposits ratio and the rate of non-performing loans of the previous year appear to exert a powerful influence on the non-performing loans rate. At the same time, from a macroeconomic perspective, the public debt and unemployment seem to be two additional factors that affect the index, revealing that the state of the economy of Eurozone countries is clearly linked to the NPL index.

El propòsit d'aquesta tesi és examinar les aportacions a l'estudi de la predicció de la taxa de canvi basada en l'ús de tècniques d'aprenentatge automàtic. Aquestes aportacions es veuen facilitades i millorades per l'ús de variables econòmiques, indicadors tècnics i variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’. Aquesta investigació s’organitza entorn d’una recopilació de quatre articles. L'objectiu de cadascun dels quatre treballs de recerca d'aquesta tesi és el de contribuir a l'avanç del coneixement sobre els efectes i mecanismes mitjançant els quals l'ús de variables econòmiques, indicadors tècnics, variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’, i la selecció dels paràmetres de models predictius són capaços de millorar les prediccions de la taxa de canvi. Fent ús d'una tècnica de predicció no lineal, el primer article d'aquesta tesi es centra majoritàriament en l'impacte que tenen l'ús de variables econòmiques i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models en les prediccions de la taxa de canvi per a dos països. L'últim experiment d'aquest primer article fa ús de la taxa de canvi del període anterior i d'indicadors econòmics com a variables d'entrada en els models predictius. El segon article d'aquesta tesi analitza com la combinació de mitjanes mòbils, variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models milloren les prediccions del canvi per a dos països. A diferència del primer article, aquest segon treball de recerca afegeix mitjanes mòbils i variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ com a variables d'entrada en els models predictius, i descarta l'ús de variables econòmiques. Un dels objectius d'aquest segon article és determinar el possible impacte de les variables de tipus ‘business and consumer survey’ en les taxes de canvi. El tercer article d'aquesta tesi té els mateixos objectius que el segon, però amb l'excepció que l'anàlisi abasta les taxes de canvi de set països. El quart article de la tesi compta amb els mateixos objectius que l'article anterior, però amb la diferència que fa ús d'un sol indicador tècnic. En general, l'enfocament d'aquesta tesi pretén examinar diferents alternatives per a millorar les prediccions del tipus de canvi a través de l'ús de màquines de suport vectorial. Una combinació de variables i la selecció dels paràmetres dels models predictius ajudaran a aconseguir aquest propòsit. / El propósito de esta tesis es examinar las aportaciones al estudio de la predicción de la tasa de cambio basada en el uso de técnicas de aprendizaje automático. Dichas aportaciones se ven facilitadas y mejoradas por el uso de variables económicas, indicadores técnicos y variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’. Esta investigación está organizada en un compendio de cuatro artículos. El objetivo de cada uno de los cuatro trabajos de investigación de esta tesis es el de contribuir al avance del conocimiento sobre los efectos y mecanismos mediante los cuales el uso de variables económicas, indicadores técnicos, variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’, y la selección de los parámetros de modelos predictivos son capaces de mejorar las predicciones de la tasa de cambio. Haciendo uso de una técnica de predicción no lineal, el primer artículo de esta tesis se centra mayoritariamente en el impacto que tienen el uso de variables económicas y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos en las predicciones de la tasa de cambio para dos países. El último experimento de este primer artículo hace uso de la tasa de cambio del periodo anterior y de indicadores económicos como variables de entrada en los modelos predictivos. El segundo artículo de esta tesis analiza cómo la combinación de medias móviles, variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos mejoran las predicciones del cambio para dos países. A diferencia del primer artículo, este segundo trabajo de investigación añade medias móviles y variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ como variables de entrada en los modelos predictivos, y descarta el uso de variables económicas. Uno de los objetivos de este segundo artículo es determinar el posible impacto de las variables de tipo ‘business and consumer survey’ en las tasas de cambio. El tercer artículo de esta tesis tiene los mismos objetivos que el segundo, pero con la salvedad de que el análisis abarca las tasas de cambio de siete países. El cuarto artículo de esta tesis cuenta con los mismos objetivos que el artículo anterior, pero con la diferencia de que hace uso de un solo indicador técnico. En general, el enfoque de esta tesis pretende examinar diferentes alternativas para mejorar las predicciones del tipo de cambio a través del uso de máquinas de soporte vectorial. Una combinación de variables y la selección de los parámetros de los modelos predictivos ayudarán a conseguir este propósito. / The purpose of this thesis is to examine the contribution made by machine learning techniques on exchange rate forecasting. Such contributions are facilitated and enhanced by the use of fundamental economic variables, technical indicators and business and consumer survey variables as inputs in the forecasting models selected. This research has been organized in a compendium of four articles. The aim of each of these four articles is to contribute to advance our knowledge on the effects and means by which the use of fundamental economic variables, technical indicators, business and consumer surveys, and a model’s free-parameters selection is capable of improving exchange rate predictions. Through the use of a non-linear forecasting technique, one research paper examines the effect of fundamental economic variables and a model’s parameters selection on exchange rate forecasts, whereas the other three articles concentrate on the effect of technical indicators, a model’s parameters selection and business and consumer surveys variables on exchange rate forecasting. The first paper of this thesis has the objective of examining fundamental economic variables and a forecasting model’s parameters in an effort to understand the possible advantages or disadvantages these variables may bring to the exchange rate predictions in terms of forecasting performance and accuracy. The second paper of this thesis analyses how the combination of moving averages, business and consumer surveys and a forecasting model’s parameters improves exchange rate predictions. Compared to the first paper, this second paper adds moving averages and business and consumer surveys variables as inputs to the forecasting model, and disregards the use of fundamental economic variables. One of the goals of this paper is to determine the possible effects of business and consumer surveys on exchange rates. The third paper of this thesis has the same objectives as the second paper, but its analysis is expanded by taking into account the exchange rates of 7 countries. The fourth paper in this thesis takes a similar approach as the second and third papers, but makes use of a single technical indicator. In general, this thesis focuses on the improvement of exchange rate predictions through the use of support vector machines. A combination of variables and a model’s parameters selection enhances the way to achieve this purpose.

Review of the literature on the currently available services for special needs children and early intervention programs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, supports the fact that early intervention services for young special needs children and their families are very limited. The present study aims at determining the importance of early intervention services for children with special needs and their families. The study also aims to firstly identify the need for establishing more early intervention programs across the country as well as to give suggestions for effective utilization of the presently available services. Secondly, the study focuses on determining the needs o mothers of children with intellectual and physical impairments. Thirdly, the study aims to assess the extent to which the available services are benefiting the special needs children and their families. A descriptive research study was conducted on a sample of 27 mothers of young children with intellectual and physical impairments. Three questionnaires were designed and distributed to obtain information about the following issues: 1) the current early intervention services available for young. special needs children in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. 2) the background information of the families of the sample. 3) the needs of the mothers in the sample. The data was qualitatively analyzed and interpreted by comparing frequencies and their corresponding percentage values. Results of this study indicated that the majority of the mothers expressed severe and moderate need for more information about their child's impairment; and needed more services and intervention programs for their child. Results from the study also established a relationship between some of the socio-economic background variables and the different categories of needs. Finally, some of the needs of the mothers were met with the early intervention services provided by the centre where the study was conducted. / Inclusive Education / D.Ed.(Special Education)

Review of the literature on the currently available services for special needs children and early intervention programs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, supports the fact that early intervention services for young special needs children and their families are very limited. The present study aims at determining the importance of early intervention services for children with special needs and their families. The study also aims to firstly identify the need for establishing more early intervention programs across the country as well as to give suggestions for effective utilization of the presently available services. Secondly, the study focuses on determining the needs o mothers of children with intellectual and physical impairments. Thirdly, the study aims to assess the extent to which the available services are benefiting the special needs children and their families. A descriptive research study was conducted on a sample of 27 mothers of young children with intellectual and physical impairments. Three questionnaires were designed and distributed to obtain information about the following issues: 1) the current early intervention services available for young. special needs children in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. 2) the background information of the families of the sample. 3) the needs of the mothers in the sample. The data was qualitatively analyzed and interpreted by comparing frequencies and their corresponding percentage values. Results of this study indicated that the majority of the mothers expressed severe and moderate need for more information about their child's impairment; and needed more services and intervention programs for their child. Results from the study also established a relationship between some of the socio-economic background variables and the different categories of needs. Finally, some of the needs of the mothers were met with the early intervention services provided by the centre where the study was conducted. / Inclusive Education / D.Ed.(Special Education)