<p>The global energy consumption is increasing rapidly and will likely continue to do so for many years to come. At the same time the world's fossil energy resources, today supplying more than 80% of this demand, are in depletion. This means we face the risk of having a shortage in the global energy supply within just a few years. Countries have lately become more aware of this problematic situation, and have come to realize the importance of energy security and securing their supply of energy.</p><p>The aim of this thesis is to study energy security from a Swedish perspective. This has been done by comparing the main different energy forms used regarding certain security aspects. The thesis as well presents methods to be used for quantitative comparison of various energy alternatives or suppliers in the energy mix, which could be applied to any jurisdiction.</p><p>A division into three main energy services has been done because of their different characteristics; transport, space and water heating, and electricity. Some of the main results from this study are construction of energy security indices for the alternative energy sources used within these services. Also some recommendations for a more secure energy supply are presented and discussed in the thesis, and outlook for the future Swedish energy requirements in 2020.</p>

The global energy consumption is increasing rapidly and will likely continue to do so for many years to come. At the same time the world's fossil energy resources, today supplying more than 80% of this demand, are in depletion. This means we face the risk of having a shortage in the global energy supply within just a few years. Countries have lately become more aware of this problematic situation, and have come to realize the importance of energy security and securing their supply of energy. The aim of this thesis is to study energy security from a Swedish perspective. This has been done by comparing the main different energy forms used regarding certain security aspects. The thesis as well presents methods to be used for quantitative comparison of various energy alternatives or suppliers in the energy mix, which could be applied to any jurisdiction. A division into three main energy services has been done because of their different characteristics; transport, space and water heating, and electricity. Some of the main results from this study are construction of energy security indices for the alternative energy sources used within these services. Also some recommendations for a more secure energy supply are presented and discussed in the thesis, and outlook for the future Swedish energy requirements in 2020.

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From chapter 1: The plan of the study is as follows. The post-war development of Sweden’s energy consumption is described and analyzed in Chapter 2. The discussion is focused on the relation between Sweden’s GNP and her consumption of energy, that is, the energy intensity of Sweden’s GNP. The factors underlying the observed development of the energy intensity of Sweden’s GNP are identified and explanatory hypotheses are proposed. The present study primarily deals with the development of energy consumption patterns at given assumptions about growth of the economy and the prices of energy resources. In a more elaborate study the growth of the economy, energy supply conditions and energy consumption patterns should be regarded as interdependent phenomena. Thus, a discussion about these interdependencies is needed as a background for the present study. Chapter 3 is devoted to a brief discussion about the factors behind the long-run development of the prices of energy resources, and how changing energy prices affect the growth of the economy. This study is carried out primarily on the basis of a numerically formulated model of the Swedish economy. The choice of model is motivated in Chapter 4. That chapter also contains a discussion of some theoretical aspects of the model. The empirical version of the houshold consumption demand model used in this study is discussed as well. The model presented in Chapter 4 is constructed as a set of interrelated submodels. In Chapter 5, 6, and 7 the three submodels of particular interest for this study are discussed in greater detail. Thus, Chapter 5 deals with a model of all sectors which produce non-energy commodities (steel, paper, etc.) Chapter 6 treats a model of the Swedish electricity and heat supply sector, while a model of the Swedish residential heating sector is dealt with in Chapter 7. Results from simulations with the model system are presented and discussed in chapters 8, 9 and 10. In Chapter 8 four alternative strategies for the future nuclear power policy in Sweden are formulated. Under the assumption of given demands for electricity and heat the impact of each of these policy alternatives on the power and heat production sector is analyzed. The attention is focused on the choice of technology and the development of electricity and heat prices. Chapter 9 deals with the results obtained from simulations using the residential heating system model. It is shown how the profitability of different residential heating options, and thus the total energy demand for residential heating purposes, is affected by price variations for energy and energy conservation equipment. The allocation of energy conservation investments between different kinds of residences is also discussed. Moreover Chapter 9 deals with the impact on the residential heating sector of the above mentioned alternatives for the future nuclear power policy in Sweden. In Chapter 10 the attention is focused on the relation between the composition of final consumer demand and the demand for energy. Thus, in a first step the changes of commodity prices in response to assumed changes of energy prices are estimated. By means of the model of the household sector’s demand for commodities, the estimated price-changes are transformed into changes of the quantities demanded. Then, by means of the model of the production sectors, the changes in final demand for commodities are transformed into changes in the demand of energy. Chapter 11 contains a summary of the results of the study. In addition some conclusions about the flexibility of the energy consumption patterns are drawn. It is also discussed how the approach adopted in this study can be used in studies of other problems related to Sweden’s energy policy than those analyzed in this study. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

This dissertation consists of four essays, all related to the field of Industrial Organization of electricity markets, in one way or another. It is far from being a concise overview of the field, but rather eclectic bits and peaces of a greater puzzle that’s being solved by a large group of people.The first three essays deal with issues concerning retail markets for electricity and similar goods. The first one is an empirical study and the other two apply game theory. The fourth essay is different in many respects, primarily methodologically, as it reports a laboratory experiment on a classical theme in Industrial Organization: price competition with capacity precommitment.  Even though this final essay is more general then the rest, it is still relevant for electricity markets as it concerns the validity of models often used to analyze competition of electricity market. Chapter 1The first essay tries to explain the coexistence of three characteristics of the Swedish retail electricity market: It concerns a homogenous product, while price dispersion is high and consumers are reluctant to switch from incumbent suppliers to rivals. Consumers’ reluctance to switch, as in this case, is usually explained either by search costs or switching costs, or even both. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the relative importance of these two factors and study their interplay. The sequential choice problem facing consumers, a) whether to become an active searcher for the best deals in electricity contracts, and b) switch suppliers is modelled as two consecutive discrete choice problems and estimated using probit model on Swedish data.  I find that switching costs are, on average, larger than search costs. Yet, search costs are important, for it appears that users of electricity must become active consumer before they respond to changes in switching costs to any degree. Various forms of passive information such as direct marketing and word-of-mouth, encourage active searching. Chapter 2Essay 2 develops a simple model of a asymmetric price duopoly, where one firm is an incumbent with an established relationship to all consumers, while the other firm is a new entrant in the market. Consumers have different consumption levels and can face a switching cost or a search cost. Retail electricity markets are the prime example. Given conditions on the distribution of these costs, an asymmetric equilibrium in prices exists. In equilibrium, the rate of switching can be a bad measure of market performance. A decrease in switching costs affects prices, but for the benefit of all consumers and not only those who choose to switch. A decrease in search costs is likely to be primarily in the interest of those consumers that do not wish to search. This suggests that consumers may be facing a free-rider problem, discouraging search as well as switching. Chapter 3Niclas Damsgaard and I consider a vertically integrated electricity company operating active regulated local network services as well as deregulated but imperfectly competitive retail market, in the third essay. The firms total costs are known, both to the regulator and its competitor, while the distribution between the two services is private knowledge of the incumbent. The firm has a natural incentive to overstate its costs for the network services to receive a higher regulated price. However, since total of both operations is known a claim of high network costs signals low retail costs. But since the firms compete in prices, which are strategic compliments, the integrated firm would like its competitor to belief its retail costs are high as well. The regulator, through a combination of price incentives and monitoring, can utilize this trade-off and induce an information-revealing separating equilibrium in which the incumbent claims its true type. The optimal combination of price incentives and monitoring and the conditions under which such a separating equilibrium is preferred to a pooling equilibrium are derived.Chapter 4The fourth essay, co-authored by Chloé Le Coq, investigates why subjects in laboratory experiments on capacity constrained price competition, seem to consistently choose capacity above the Cournot level - the subgame-perfect equilibrium. We argue that this puzzling regularity may be attributed to players' perceptions about their opponents’ skill or level of rationality. In our experimental design we used the level of experience (number of periods played) as a proxy for the level of rationality and matched subjects with different levels of experience. We found evidence of capacity choices being decreasing and prices increasing with opponent's experience. This suggests that if subjects have a tendency to underestimate the rationality of their opponents or that rationality is actually limited for a large proportion of subjects, the observed regularity need not be a puzzle after all. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2003

At the Stockholm School of Economics a research programme devoted to the economics of energy and natural resources has been pursued since 1973. The main emphasis has been on the construction and application of quantitative models for studies of energy policy and energy markets. In the programme, models of both energy producing sectors and energy using sectors, as well as applied general equilibrium models of the whole economy, have been constructed. This dissertation is a product of this research programme. The author proposes and applies a specific approach to model integration, i.e. the merger of two or several independently developed models. The approach is intended for integrations of activity analysis sector models and applied general equilibrium models. Model integration makes it possible to extend the range of applicability of applied general equilibrium models by exploiting the information contained in sector models. It also makes it possible to evaluate the validity of the partial equilibrium analyses in which sector models often are employed. The proposed approach is used to integrate a sector model of electricity and heat production with a general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy. Both models have been constructed within the research programme. The author uses the integrated model to look at two issues concerning the role of nuclear power on the Swedish electricity market: What are the likely consequences of a nuclear power discontinuation and how does the nuclear power investment programme of the 1970s and the early 1980s compare with a socially efficient one? / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

Tillgången till energi står högt upp på den globala agendan och utgör mål sju inom ramen för Agenda 2030. Trots långtgående arbete och höga målsättningar att minska klimatpåverkan utgör fossil energi fortfarande den största delen av den totala energitillförseln. Energiförsörjning utgör också ett prioriterat politikområde inom EU. I och med den så kallade energiunionen som presenterades 2015 förtydligades de gemensamma målsättningarna inom energiområdet. Dominerande energikällor, graden av importberoende och synen på energisäkerhet med flera faktorer skiljer sig dock i stor utsträckning mellan EU:s medlemsländer. De olika perspektiven innebär utmaningar i det gemensamma arbetet för att t.ex. öka andelen förnybar energi. Det generellt höga importberoendet är inte minst aktuellt idag med hänsyn till den säkerhetspolitiska situationen i Europa. Den svenska energipolitiken tar i stor utsträckning sin utgångspunkt det EU-gemensamma energiarbetet. Uttalade målsättningar i inriktningen för den framtida energiförsörjningen är att öka mängden förnybar energi, minska klimatpåverkan och öka energieffektiviteten. Även om den pågående energiomställningen innebär stora steg mot en mer hållbar energiförsörjning så medför den också nya miljöaspekter. På samma sätt innebär den nya aspekter kopplade till säkerhetspolitik och energisäkerhet som inte är studerade i samma omfattning som för fossila energislag. Miljö- och säkerhetsmässiga aspekter av den framtida energiförsörjningen innebär i vissa fall konflikter, exempelvis avseende ianspråktagande av mark- och vattenområden. I flera avseenden ger de dock möjligheter till synergieffekter och omfattar gemensamma behov av vidare analys. Utökad integrering av olika aspekter och omhändertagande av synergieffekter skulle kunna förstärka och effektivisera arbetet mot en hållbar energiförsörjning.

Hensikten med denne oppgaven er å undersøke i hvilken grad Norges energistrategiske betydninghar fått gjennomslag i norsk sikkerhetspolitikk etter den kalde krigen, og hvordan dette kanforklares.Norge er pr 2002 verdens sjette største oljeprodusent, og verdens tredje største oljeeksportør etterSaudi-Arabia og Russland. Norge er dessuten verdens tredje største eksportør av gass i rør, og dennorske gasseksporten utgjorde i år 2001 om lag to prosent av verdens totale gassforbruk.Denne energistrategiske betydningen har tilsynelatende ikke fått noen sentral plass i utformingenav den norske sikkerhetspolitikken, noe som med stor sannsynlighet skyldes at den norskeregjeringen bevisst har valgt å ikke sikkerhetisere den norske petroleumsproduksjonen. / This paper analyses to what extent Norwegian oil- and gas production has influencedNorwegian security policy after the cold war.As of 2002, Norway was the world's sixth largest oil producer, and the world's thirdlargest oil exporting country. Norway is one of the world's major gas producers aswell, and approximately 30% of the European Union's gas imports comes fromNorway, and for some countries as much as 40% is imported from Norway. Thisgives Norway significant influence on the international oil- and gas market.Today, no industrialised country can manage to keep up its industrial production,transport or general welfare without this energy, and there are no substitute productsavailable in the short or long term to replace oil or gas. As a major petroleumproducer, Norway is therefore in a position where it must maintain production evenin times of crisis and conflict in order to keep the European Union’s economiessolvent. Norway itself could also become involved indirectly in conflicts if one of theconflict parties wants to hurt the oil market. Norwegian petroleum installations couldbe attacked by foreign military forces or, more likely, by terrorists. Norway couldeven be faced with international political pressure to control where and when toexport its petroleum. Therefore Norway needs to take this into account whendeveloping its security policy. However, the general impression is that Norway hasn'tdone so, and the question is why.This paper clearly demonstrates that oil- and gas production has not achieved anexplicit and dominant position in Norway’s security policy. To the contrary, it washardly mentioned at all until the dramatic fall of oil prices during the winter of 1997-1998. During 1998 petroleum was widely discussed by the government, by externalagencies and individuals, but in 1999 the subject again disappeared fromgovernmental papers.The most likely explanation seems to be that the Norwegian government thinks thatthe best security policy is to focus as little attention as possible on its petroleumproduction. To defend all installations against a terrorist or military attack would beextremely difficult, and in case of a traditional military attack on Norway, NATOwould be involved anyway. In case of a terrorist seizure of an oil platform, Norwayhas a military unit trained to handle that situation. Further, the risk of anenvironmental catastrophe resulting from a terrorist attack is not as high as it mightseem at first glance. The platforms are constructed to minimize damage from firesand minor explosions, and the wells are equipped with vents to shut off oil leakage incase of emergency. Through incidents during the '70s and '80s, Norway learned thatit can cope with international political pressure by strictly keeping to a commercialpolicy in the trade of petroleum, while limiting political control to the exploitation ofthe resources.All in all, the Norwegian government has developed a security policy that focuses aslittle attention as possible on oil- and gas production, and it has maintained thatpolicy almost uninterrupted through the 1990s. / Avdelning: ALB - Slutet Mag 3 C-upps.Hylla: Upps. ChP 01-03

EU bruker stadig mer energi, spesiellt olje og gass, og må stadig øke importen.Organisasjonens egen produksjon er ikke tilstrekkelig til å dekke energibehovet.Russland og Norge er noen av de største eksportlandene av petroleum til EU.Oppgaven er å analysere energipolitikken som EU fører mot Russland og Norge.Som en følge av energipolitikken som EU fører mot disse to landene er detinteressant å se hvilke sikkerhetsmessige konsekvenser/forhold dette eventueltforårsaker innen triangelet EU, Russland og Norge. / European Union consumes increasingly more and energy, particularly oil and gas. Afollowing consequence is larger imports of these sources of energy. The organisationsown production does not satisfy the need of this vital energy.This article will focus on and analyse the EU energy policy towards Russia andNorway. Due to the organisations policy towards these countries, interesting pointsare the following consequences this makes inside the triangle, EU, Russia andNorway / Avdelning: ALB - Slutet Mag 3 C-upps.Hylla: Upps. ChP 00-02