Current multifactor valuation pricing models use size (measured by market capitalization) of a firm as one factor to determine the value of a security. The problem with current standard models was that none of them could explain the value of a security consistently and accurately based on current factors and in particular the size factor. The purpose of this quantitative study using existing time-series data over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015 was to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return. There are currently many valuation models but there is no 2-factor model or a model that uses a size factor that includes mid-cap sized securities. The research questions examined mid-cap sized securities for the size factor in a 2-factor model to determine the accuracy of predicting financial returns compared to the current standard Fama-French 3-factor model. The main theoretical framework that guided the study was the efficient market hypothesis that postulates that the price of a stock reflects all relevant available information. Data were collected for historical returns of 15 individual firms and portfolios of securities based on size. Multiple regression analysis methodology was used to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return in the modified 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The results of the study indicate that size is a statistically significant factor in a 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The positive social impact of this study is that it could provide greater confidence in financial markets by providing a fair and equitable means of investment and flow of capital for a robust economy.

This thesis wants to explore the forecasting potential of the multi-factor models to predict excess returns of the aggregated portfolio of the European stock mar- ket. These factors provided by Fama and French and Carhart are well-known in the field of asset pricing, we also add several financial and macroeconomic factors according to the literature. We establish a benchmark model of ARIMA and we compare the forecasting errors of OLS and the LSTM neural networks. Both models take the lagged excess returns and the inputs. We measure the performance with the root mean square error and mean absolute error. The results suggest that neural networks are in this particular task capable of bet- ter predictions given the same input as OLS but their forecasting error is not significantly lower according to the Diebold-Mariano test. JEL Classification C45, C53, C61, E37, G11, G15 Keywords Stocks, European market, Neural networks, LSTM, Factor Models, Fama-French, Predic- tions, RMSE Title Does LSTM neural network improve factor mod- els' predictions of the European stock market?

Calculating the expected return has been a longstanding issue in the finance. There is a positive correlation between the undertaken risk and excess return (or loss) but numerous variables need to be considered. This study builds on the Fama and French formula and adds factors unique to the hospitality industry such as labor cost and diversification in order to get results that are a tailored to the hospitality industry. Active hotel and restaurants companies (SIC 7011 and 5812 respectively) in the 2000-2009 period were analyzed in separate samples. The labor cost improves the explanatory on both samples and the diversification proxy was significant in the hotel sample. Based on the results suggestions for further research were made.

ESG investing is a hot subject in today’s world with socially responsible investments under management reaching 35.3 trillion in the beginning of 2020. Corporations today are highly affected by social and government pressure to take on corporate social responsibility. This rise in corporate social responsibility has led to a need for a deeper understanding of what lies beneath the ESG score and how this affect financial performance. In this study we disassemble the ESG score into its 10 subcategories and test how risk and financial return get affected by investing in a high scored portfolio compared to a low scored one. The study is carried out from the start of 2012 to the end of 2021. When testing our portfolios, the Fama-French five-factor model is applied, and we find results that shows that the alpha is positive and significant in 16 out of 20 portfolios. Our findings suggest that investing in low scored portfolios produce higher excess return than both the top portfolio and the market and that a portfolio consisting of low scored corporations have a higher Sharpe ratio in general than a portfolio consisting of high scored stocks. Furthermore, we find results indicating that for most of the ESG subcategories, investing in the portfolios with high ESG subcategory scores will provide significant excess return to the market.

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és triple. En primer lloc, contribuïm a aprofundir l'anàlisi de la capacitat del model dels tres factors de Fama i French (1993) per valorar els actius financers a Europa. En segon lloc, estudiem la relació entre els factors de Fama i French (FF) i el risc sistemàtic, i, per tant, en quina mesura _es coherent amb la interpretació del model intertemporal de valoració d'actius, que va més enllà de l'efecte mida i de l'efecte valor comptable-valor de mercat. I, en tercer lloc, tenim com a objectiu mesurar la integració dels mercats d'accions europeus, emmarcada en el procés continu d'alineació institucional i econòmica a Europa. En la literatura empírica de la valoració d'actius, el model dels tres factors ha esdevingut un dels més populars per ajustar segons el risc. No obstant això, fins ara, la majoria de treballs empírics han fet referència a un nombre reduït de mercats, especialment als Estats Units. Perquè el model sigui acceptat com a alternativa vàlida al model de fixació de preus d'actius de capital (CAPM), cal més suport empíric. En aquest treball, fem servir una nova mostra amb una construcció nova dels factors de FF que s'aplica en un conjunt extensiu de països, indústries i regions europees. Els resultats que n'hem obtingut impliquen que el model dels tres factors domina clarament el CAPM en cadascuna de les submostres; tot això a banda que els tests formals indiquen que cap dels models és totalment satisfactori per a la valoració d'actius. A més, documentem que l'ampliació del model de FF amb el factor moment noms millora marginalment la capacitat explicativa quan s'aplica a les rendibilitats de les accions europees.El gran èxit del model dels tres factors de Fama i French també ha generat un debat intens sobre la racionalitat econòmica que hi ha al darrere. Nosaltres hem aprofundit aquesta qüestió estudiant si la mida i la ràtio valor comptable-valor de mercat estan relacionades amb oportunitats futures d'inversió. Ho hem estudiat des de dues perspectives diferents. D'una banda, suposem que els canvis en el conjunt d'oportunitats d'inversió es poden representar mitjançant canvis en la ràtio de creixement macroeconòmic. D'altra banda, vinculem els factors de FF construïts a futures ràtios de creixement del PIB a Europa, i trobem que només la mida sembla que conté alguna informació sobre el creixement macroeconòmic futur. Però, fins i tot aquest efecte de la mida no es manté en les nostres diferents submostres.En un segon pas, relacionem la mida i la ràtio valor comptable-valor de mercat amb canvis en els diferencials dels tipus d'interès per crèdit i per termini. Aquests diferencials de rendiment es reconeixen per la capacitat de marcar les oportunitats d'inversió. Malgrat tot, els nostres resultats indiquen que ni els canvis en el diferencial de crèdit a Europa ni els canvis en el diferencial de termini poden actuar com a punts de vista alternatius subjacents als factors de mida o de valor comptable-valor de mercat. De fet, els resultats empírics que obtenim indiquen que, si augmentem el model dels tres factors amb els canvis en els diferencials de crèdit i de termini, fem incrementar la capacitat de valorar carteres d'accions en tots els àmbits: país, indústria i regió. Per tant, sembla que les variables s'haurien de considerar més com a complementàries que com a substitutives, a diferència dels resultats obtinguts per als Estats Units (vegeu Petkova, 2006; Hahn i Lee, 2006).Finalment, per estudiar el grau d'integració dels mercats d'accions europeus, seguim dues vies relacionades. Primer, mostrem que una versió paneuropea del model dels tres factors és capaç d'explicar una porció considerable de la rendibilitat de les carteres domèstiques. Aquest resultat indica que el model conté informació rellevant per valorar les accions domèstiques. Alhora, el resultat pot implicar que els mercats europeus estan integrats (vegeu Bekaert i Harvey, 1995; Roll i Ross, 1980). En un segon pas, més genèric, fem servir l'esquema del Factor de descompte estocàstic (SDF) per estimar i comparar els nuclis de valoració d'actius domèstics en els diferents mercats europeus. Els resultats indiquen que la quantitat d'informació compartida per aquests nuclis de valoració augmenta significativament en el temps, especialment després de l'arribada de l'euro. Aquest resultat pot servir com a indicador addicional de l'increment del nivell d'integració dels mercats d'accions europeus. / El objetivo de esta tesis es triple. Por una parte, contribuimos a profundizar en el análisis de la capacidad del modelo de 3 Factores de Fama y French (1993) para valorar activos financieros en Europa. En segundo lugar, estudiamos la relación entre los factores de Fama y French y el riesgo sistemático. Y por tanto, en qué medida el modelo 3 Factores es consistente con una interpretación de modelo intertemporal de valoración de activos; que va más allá del efecto tamaño y el efecto valor contable - valor de mercado. En tercer lugar, nuestro objetivo es medir la integración de los mercados de acciones europeos, enmarcada en el continuado proceso de alineamiento institucional y económico en Europa. En la literatura empírica de valoración de activos el modelo de 3 Factores se ha convertido en uno de los más populares para ajustar por riesgo. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha, la mayoría de los trabajos empíricos se han aplicado a un número reducido de mercados, especialmente en los Estados Unidos. Para que el modelo sea aceptado como una alternativa válida al CAPM, se requiere un mayor soporte empírico. En este trabajo utilizamos una nueva muestra, con una nueva construcción de los factores de FF, que se aplica a un extensivo conjunto de países, industrias y regiones europeas. Nuestros resultados implican que en cada una de nuestras sub-muestras, el modelo de 3 Factores claramente domina el CAPM; al margen de que los test formales indiquen que ninguno de los modelos es totalmente satisfactorio para la valoración de activos. También documentamos que la ampliación del modelo de 3 Factores con el factor momento sólo mejora marginalmente la capacidad explicativa cuando se aplica a las rentabilidades de las acciones europeas.El enorme éxito del modelo de 3 Factores de Fama y French ha abierto también un intenso debate sobre la racionalidad económica que existe detrás de los mismos. Nosotros ahondamos en esta discusión estudiando si el tamaño y la ratio valor contable-valor de mercado están relacionados con oportunidades de inversión futuras. Lo estudiamos mediante dos aproximaciones distintas, primero suponemos que los cambios en el conjunto de las oportunidades de inversión pueden representarse mediante cambios en la ratio de crecimiento macroeconómico. Por otra parte, vinculamos los factores de FF construidos a futuras ratios de crecimiento de PIB en Europa, y encontramos que sólo el tamaño parece contener alguna información sobre el crecimiento macroeconómico futuro. Pero, incluso este efecto tamaño, no se mantiene para en nuestras distintas sub-muestras. En un segundo paso, relacionamos el tamaño y la ratio valor contable - valor de mercado con cambios en los diferenciales de los tipos de interés por crédito y plazo. Estos diferenciales de rendimiento están reconocidos por su capacidad para marcar las oportunidades de inversión. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados indican que ni los cambios en el diferencial de crédito en Europa, ni los cambios en el diferencial de plazo, pueden actuar como aproximaciones alternativas subyacentes al los factores de tamaño o valor contable - valor de mercado. De hecho, los resultados empíricos que obtenemos indican que si aumentamos el modelo de 3 Factores con los cambios en los diferenciales de crédito y plazo, incrementa la capacidad de valorar carteras de acciones a todos los niveles: país, industria y región. Por tanto, parecería que las variables deberían de ser consideradas más como complementarias que como substitutivas, a diferencia de los resultados obtenidos para los Estados Unidos (vid Petkova, 2006; Hahn y Lee, 2006).Finalmente, para estudiar el grado de integración de los mercados de acciones europeos seguimos dos vías relacionadas. Primero mostramos que una versión paneuropea del modelo de 3 Factores es capaz de explicar una porción considerable de la rentabilidad de las carteras domesticas. Este resultado indica que el modelo contiene información relevante para valorar acciones domésticas. Al mismo tiempo, el resultado puede implica que los mercados europeos están integrados (vid. Bekaert y Harvey, 1995; Roll y Ross, 1980). En un segundo paso, más genérico, utilizamos el esquema de Factor de Descuento Estocástico (SDF) para estimar y comparar los núcleos de valoración de activos domésticos en los diferentes mercados europeos. Nuestros resultados indican que la cantidad de información compartida por esos núcleos de valoración aumenta significativamente en el tiempo, especialmente después de la llegada del euro. Este resultado puede servir como un indicador adicional del incremento del nivel de integración de los mercados europeos de acciones. / The main purpose of this dissertation is threefold. For one, we aim to shed further light on the general pricing ability of the Fama and French (1993) (FF) three-factor model (3FM) in Europe. For two, we mean to assess whether the FF factors are related to systematic risk and, thus, whether the 3FM is consistent with an intertemporal asset pricing explanation behind the size and book-to-market effects. For three, we endeavor to measure the extent to which European equity markets are integrated. This is motivated by the continuous institutional and economic alignment process in Europe.The 3FM has become one of the most popular models of risk adjustment in the empirical asset pricing literature. However, to date most empirical work has been done for a few selected markets, especially the US. Hence, the 3FM demands more time and further empirical support before it may be accepted as a credible theory-based model to replace the CAPM. We use a fresh holdout sample with newly constructed FF factors for an extensive set of European countries, industries, and regions. Our findings imply that in each of our sub-samples, the 3FM clearly dominates the CAPM, even if formal test statistics imply that neither model is free of mispricing. We also document that augmenting the 3FM by a momentum factor may only marginally help to explain European equity return behavior.The enormous success of the 3FM has also triggered an extensive debate about the economic rationale of the FF factors. We purse this discussion by assessing via two different approaches whether size and book-to-market may be related to time varying investment opportunities. We first assume that changes in the investment opportunity set are summarized by changes in future macroeconomic growth rates. Nevertheless, if we link our newly constructed FF factors to future GDP growth rates in the Eurozone, then we find that only size appears to contain some information on future macroeconomic growth. Yet, not even this finding for the size effect is, admittedly, very persistent across our sub-samples.In a second step, we relate size and book-to-market to changes in European default and term spreads. These yield spreads are generally acknowledged for their ability to track investment opportunities. Our results suggest, however, that neither changes in the European default spread nor changes in the European term spread may proxy for the risk underlying our size and book-to-market factors. In fact, our empirical findings imply that augmenting the 3FM by changes in these yield spreads may notably help to price European equity portfolios at country, industry, and regional level. Hence, it appears that the variables may be considered complements rather than substitutes. This is contrary to US findings (see Petkova, 2006, Hahn and Lee, 2006).Finally, we follow two related approaches to study the degree to which European stock markets are integrated. We first show that a pan-European version of the 3FM is able to explain a considerable proportion of domestic equity portfolio returns. For one, this entails that the model contains valuable information from pricing domestic equity. For two, it may imply that European stock markets are integrate (see Bekaert and Harvey, 1995, Roll and Ross, 1980). In a second and more generic step, we utilize a stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate and compare domestic pricing kernels across European markets. Our results convey that the amount of information shared by these kernels increases significantly over time, especially after the advent of the euro. This may serve as a further indicator of an increasing European stock market integration.

我國股票市場，向以規模太小（截至７７年四月底上市公司僅１４０餘家）而為人詬 病，如：太容易經由大戶的抄作，使散戶套牢而遭受損失，故擴大股票市場規模及增 加機構投資者比重，向為政府努力的目標。 ７２年財政部證卷管理委員會先後制定發佈了「證卷投資信託事業管理規則」及「證 卷投資信託基金管理辦法」期能以增加機構投資方式，避免股市過於投機，又使社會 游資有良孚出路，至７６年底國內共有四家證卷投資信託公司：國際、光華、建弘及 中華。每家公司分別掌管了兩個基金（國內及國外各一）。 本論文以此八個基金為研究對象，研究期間從７２．１０．２９∼７６．１２．２９ ．，以各基金與市場股票指數的週報酬率為比較基礎，先計算各基金的sharpe（１９ ６６），Treynor （１９６５），Jensen（１９６８）的指數，以排名先後，再以 Henriksson（１９８４）及Moses （１９８７）的迴歸模式來探討各基金的擇時效果 （selection and Timing）。 擇時效果乃Fama（１９７２）提出，利用資本市場線（ＳＭＬ）模式來惟算，簡而言 之，選擇效果乃評估基金選股的優勢，而時間效果則衡量基金報酬是否優於市場報酬 。 研究結果sharpe，Treynor 及Jensen指數，各國基金互有優劣，但以光華國外基金略 佳，至於選擇效果各基金皆無明顯表現，而時間效果則僅有光華國外基金略佳，其餘 基金時間效果皆低於市場報酬。 本研究因受限於各基金成立時間不一，且在研究期間並不長久下，所得出的績效排名 ，難免有失偏頗。唯提出基金績效的評估模式，以給欲購買「受益憑證」的投資大眾 ，有個參考！

權益成本估計的不確定性將嚴重影響企業價值評估的準確性，因此本文檢視CAPM單一因子模型及Fama and French三因子模型，依1982年7月至2007年12月之台灣二十八類產業為研究樣本，以傳統的所有樣本期間迴歸（Full-period Regression）與滾動式迴歸（Rolling Regression）兩種不同估計方式，發現CAPM及Fama and French三因子模型之風險係數隨著時間改變的平均真實隱含標準差均高達0.18以上。比較兩模型在產業權益成本預測能力的比較上，Fama and French三因子模型不論預測近期或遠期的表現均優於CAPM外，預測的期間越久，兩模型預測能力差距將越小，其預測能力也越接近。在我們進一步利用兩種定價模式估計產業權益成本發現，Fama and French三因子模型明顯降低了產業權益成本的波動狀況，並且CAPM與Fama and French三因子模型使用五年滾動式迴歸模型估計的差異大於使用完整樣本期間估計的方式。有鑑於此，當我們選擇資產定價模型做為資產評價上之權益成本應用時，在預測短期間的權益成本估計上，Fama and French三因子模型以長期間的完整歷史時間估計仍為有較佳方式。然而在預測遠期的權益成本估計時，CAPM仍為不錯的估算方式。

This essay will compare the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama and French threefactor model and Carhart´s four-factor model, to see which of these models that can explain portfolio excess returns best on the Swedish stock market. This thesis will tempt to validate the three and four-factor models because of the limited amount of research done on the Swedish stock market. The results indicate that the three-factor model improves explanatory power for portfolio returns in comparison to the CAPM, and the four-factor model gives a small improvement in the explanatory power compared to the three-factor model. The results also indicate that all models have a low explanatory power when the market is volatile.

[pt] Hoje em dia, como em um passe de mágica, o aparecer na televisão pode reconfigurar o significado da própria existência (para si mesmo e para os outros). Talvez por isso, ser o foco dos olhares tenha virado uma prioridade de muitos, sendo quase como um emprego: uma forma de ganhar dinheiro, subir na vida, alcançar a tão almejada fama, ou se preferir, virar uma celebridade. Não importa muito o nome que se dá a este tipo de conquista, mas a que preço ela é obtida. Neste estudo, analisamos um reality show, que - semelhante à maioria dos programas televisivos atuais - tem como principal finalidade conquistar audiência. A fórmula do sucesso desta atração uniu o útil ao agradável, tornando o privado, público e, ainda, garantindo a satisfação da curiosidade sobre a intimidade alheia. O interesse do espectador por consumir os bastidores de outros cotidianos em seu grau mais restrito, de certa forma, se expressa pelo desejo de comparar-se e observar o quanto sua própria intimidade se aproxima de outras. O Big Brother Brasil vem mostrar que todos têm chance, e estimula a possibilidade de concretização deste sonho ao convocar pessoas comuns e anônimas para fazer parte do seu cenário em troca do confinamento por alguns meses e da exposição estereotipada de diversos comportamentos. Se essa troca é justa ou não, não pretendemos julgar, mas o fato é que ela existe, é aceita e desejada. / [en] Nowadays, as if by magic, to be on a television show could change the meaning of one´s life. That is maybe the reason why, for many people, it is now a priority to be in focus. It is somewhat like having a job, a way of getting money, of climbing socially, of rising to fame, or, one may say, of becoming a celebrity. It does not really matter how to label this kind of achievement, but what matters is at what cost it is achieved. This study aims to analyze a reality show whose main purpose is to reach a wide audience - as happens with most of the current television shows. The success of such a show lies in turning the private public and, in the process, satisfying one´s curiosity about other people´s intimacy. The viewer´s interest in peering at other people´s life in a way expresses his wish to make comparisons with his own life and to observe how much people´s intimacy resembles his own. Big Brother Brazil shows that everybody has opportunities and encourages the achievement of one´s dreams by recruiting ordinary, anonymous people to be part of it. In exchange, they have to be confined for some months and show a stereotyped kind of behavior. We can not judge whether this exchange is fair, but it is actually real and it is approved and anticipated.

Thesis advisor: Harold Petersen / According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), speculative bubbles do not exist and are impossible. We disagree. If prices are the only observable component of an asset’s value, and they themselves are an aggregated consensus of perceived value, then what about the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is testable? Rather than assume that prices always reflect value (i.e. perfect market efficiency), we maintain that markets are efficient to the extent that one can be confident that tomorrow’s prices will not diverge dramatically or arbitrarily from today’s prices, absent significant new information. Speculative bubbles are not materializing every day, every month, or even every year. But they do have the potential and indeed a tendency to occur from time to time. If markets are efficient, what explains all the trading? Rather than assume rational expectations and a homogenous investor class, we assume four investor classes that diverge in their perception of value (i.e. in their expectation of future returns) and thus trade with each other. Using insights from Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), we develop a theoretical framework for how a speculative bubble might materialize within a modern capitalist economy with securities markets’ that follow a random walk. Obviously, there is no “bubble” variable. We use Tobin’s Q, the ratio of the price of an asset to its replacement cost, and Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio as proxy variables for bubbles. We find statistically significant, negative relationships between both of these proxy variables and our dependent variable, Ten Year Cumulative Returns, thereby providing evidence against the EMH and suggesting the possibility of speculative bubbles. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.