No description available.

This thesis investigates the impact of financial intermediation on economic growth in two regions: the East African Community (EAC) countries (Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Uganda) and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia). The study analyzes the regions employing a Granger causality test and explores if financial intermediation influences economic growth. An index that measures financial intermediation is created using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and is used to capture the effect it has on economic growth in the two regions. The data used in the study is from 1990 to 2018. The results show that there is a short-run unidirectional relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth in EAC countries while financial intermediation does not Granger cause economic growth in North African countries. The result also shows that inflation has a short-run impact on growth in the North African countries.

No description available.

This thesis examines both conventional and unconventional monetary policies in a DSGE model with an interbank market friction. The recent crisis during 2007-2009 affected economies worldwide and forced central banks to implement not just conventional monetary policies, but also direct interventions in financial markets. We investigate a DSGE model with financial frictions, to test conventional and unconventional monetary policies. The thesis starts by using the Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)'s modelling framework, to examine eight different shocks under imperfect interbank market conditions. Unlike Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010) who consider the two extreme cases for the banking system, I firstly extend the analysis to a case in between the two extreme cases that they examined. The shocks considered include supply and demand shocks and also two shocks from the financial system itself (an interbank market shock and a shock to the deposit market). It is found that a negative shock to the interbank market has only a moderate impact to the banking system. However, a shock to the deposit market has a much stronger impact. Even though the impacts of these shocks are not large it is shown that thefinancial frictions magnify the effects of other shocks. The model is extended to include price stickiness. A modified Taylor rule is analysed to test how conventional monetary policy should respond to the shocks in the presence of financial frictions. Specifically the credit spread is added as a third term in the monetary policy rule. The stabilising properties of the policy rule are analysed and a welfare analysis is conducted. The model is further developed to include unconventional monetary policy in the form of direct lending to private sector firms from the central bank. A policy rule for unconventional policy is tested and its stabilising and welfare properties are analysed.

Um fato relacionado ao uso de telefones celulares para realizar transferência de recursos e pagamento de obrigações é o seu crescimento acelerado ao redor do mundo, com potencial econômico inquestionável. Projeções otimistas sugerem a substituição de instrumentos de pagamentos tradicionais como os cheques de papel e os cartões de plástico pelos instrumentos de pagamentos móveis. A despeito da relevância das organizações e setores envolvidos, poucos trabalhos teóricos e empíricos focaram no tema, especialmente para o Brasil, onde a referida inovação ainda não atingiu patamar de penetração equivalente a de outros países. Com esse baixo desempenho como cenário, quais os fatores internos às organizações ou ambientais seriam mais importantes ao desenvolvimento dessas inovações? Objetivando responder essa pergunta, este trabalho realizou um estudo de caso com três iniciativas de inovação em instrumentos de pagamentos móveis tipificadas como de sucesso em seus países, i.e., Alipay da China, M-Pesa do Quênia e Nubank do Brasil. Com base em determinantes potenciais selecionados na literatura, as informações e dados das empresas e de seus ambientes foram capturados, selecionados e analisados. De maneira complementar, realizou-se a triangulação das informações dos casos com os resultados de um questionário enviado a 43 especialistas de organizações privadas e públicas, com dados analisados pelo modelo de equações estruturais. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que, embebidos em um ambiente regulatório não restritivo, três fatores se associaram ao desenvolvimento de instrumentos de pagamentos móveis, todos relacionados a qualidades dos recursos e da gestão das organizações. O primeiro é o de que organizações com características orgânicas, com comunicação aberta e poder descentralizado, em oposição a organizações de estrutura mecanicista, fechadas e burocráticas, estão associadas ao desenvolvimento da oferta de instrumentos de pagamentos móveis. O segundo fator está integrado à oferta de serviços múltiplos e complementares em um mesmo sistema e sugere a disponibilidade conjunta tanto de serviços de pagamentos móveis como os típicos de mobile banking. O terceiro sugere a adoção de rede antecedente como estratégia para entrada e obtenção de massa crítica mínima, em alternativa ao crescimento vegetativo adotado por algumas fintechs. Como contribuição, apesar de os fatores selecionados não serem inéditos e já terem sido discutidos na literatura, eles usualmente são avaliados de maneira individualizada. Nesse sentido, este estudo sugere que os fatores em conjunto e seus inter-relacionamentos se mostraram como relevantes e devem guiar pesquisas futuras. Para pesquisadores e analistas, os fatores selecionados podem servir como guias em avaliações sobre o setor. Para executivos e gestores, os resultados geraram subsídios para suas tomadas de decisões. / One fact related to the use of mobile phones to carry out resource transfer and payment is its accelerated growth around the world, with unquestionable economic potential. Optimistic projections suggest replacing traditional payment instruments such as paper checks and plastic cards with mobile payment instruments. In spite of the relevance of the organizations and sectors involved, few theoretical and empirical studies focused on the theme, especially for Brazil, where the innovation has not yet reached the level of penetration equivalent to that of other countries. With such a low performance scenario, which internal or organizational factors would be most important to the development of these innovations? In order to answer this question, this paper carried out a case study with three innovation initiatives in mobile payment instruments typified as successful in their countries, i.e. Alipay of China, M-Pesa of Kenya and Nubank of Brazil. Based on potential determinants selected in the literature, the information and data of companies and their environments were captured, selected and analyzed. In a complementary way, the triangulation of the information of the cases was carried out with the results of a questionnaire sent to 43 specialists from private and public organizations, with data analyzed by the structural equations model. The results suggest that, embedded in a non-restrictive regulatory environment, three factors were associated with the development of mobile payment instruments, all related to the qualities of resources and the management of organizations. The first is that organizations with organic characteristics, with open communication and decentralized, as opposed to mechanistic, closed and bureaucratic organizations, are associated with the development of mobile payment instruments\' supply. The second factor is integrated with the supply of multiple and complementary services in the same system and suggests the joint availability of both mobile payment and mobile banking services. The third one suggests the adoption of antecedent network as a strategy for entry and obtaining minimum critical mass, as an alternative to the vegetative growth adopted by some fintechs. As a contribution, although the selected factors are not unpublished and have already been discussed in the literature, they are usually evaluated in an individualized way. In this sense, this study suggests that the factors together and their interrelationships have proved to be relevant and should guide future research. For researchers and analysts, the selected factors can serve as guides in industry assessments. For executives and managers, the results generated support for their decisions.

As cooperativas de crédito são instituições financeiras que têm como finalidade principal a prestação de serviços bancários e de intermediação financeira voltando-se para a geração de benefícios ao cooperado, através de benefícios econômicos encontrados sob a forma cooperativada. Considerando o objetivo destas organizações, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a eficiência das mesmas considerando duas vertentes: 1) a atividade de intermediação financeira; e 2) a atividade de prestação de serviços bancários, a partir de variáveis contábeis. A técnica utilizada para a avaliação da eficiência foi a Análise Envoltória de Dados e foram analisados os determinantes da eficiência por meio de regressões do tipo Tobit. A amostra é composta por 315 cooperativas singulares listadas na base de dados do Banco Central do Brasil e foram utilizados os dados dos balancetes anuais e semestrais (soma dos semestres para as contas de resultado de cada ano) apresentados para período de 2007 a 2014. Os resultados indicaram baixa eficiência das cooperativas na prestação de serviços bancários, com 73% da amostra apresentando ineficiência ao longo de todos os anos do período em análise. Na atividade de intermediação financeira 20 cooperativas foram eficientes ao longo do período completo, com as demais apresentando graus de ineficiência abaixo de 16% em todos os anos. Quanto aos determinantes da eficiência, verificou-se como principais fatores na atividade de intermediação financeira a Imobilização, a Insolvência, o Descasamento Passivo e as Despesas Administrativas, enquanto na atividade de prestação de serviços os principais determinantes foram a Captação por Floating e as Despesas Administrativas. Os resultados da eficiência na intermediação financeira indicaram baixos graus de ineficiência, enquanto os altos graus de ineficiência na prestação de serviços bancários alertaram para a pouca importância dada ao fornecimentos destes serviços e para a importância de se utilizar dois modelos distintos para a avaliação da eficiência em cooperativas de crédito, dado o comportamento desvinculado entre as duas atividades avaliadas. / Credit unions are financial institutions whose main purpose is the provision of banking and financial intermediation turning to the generation of benefits to the cooperative through economic benefits found in the cooperative form. Considering the purpose of these organizations, this study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of these organizations considering two aspects: 1) the financial intermediation activity and 2) the activity of banking services. For this aim it was used accounting variables. The technique used for the assessment of efficiency was the Data Envelopment Analysis and the determinants of efficiency were analyzed using Tobit regressions. The sample is composed of 315 individual cooperatives listed in the Central Bank\'s database of Brazil and it was used the data of the annual and semi-annual balance sheets (sum of semesters for the result accounts of each year) presented for the period 2007 to 2014. The results indicated low efficiency of cooperatives in providing banking services, with 73% of the sample showing inefficiency over each year of the period. In the financial intermediation activity 20 cooperatives were effective over the entire period, and the other cooperatives presented degrees of inefficiency below 16% in every year of the period. As the determinants of efficiency, it was as key determinants in financial intermediation activity: the immobilization, the insolvency, the mismatch liabilities and the administrative expenses, while in activity of providing services the main determinants were the capture by floating and the administrative expenses. The results of efficiency in financial intermediation were considered satisfactory, but the high degree of inefficiency in the provision of banking services warned of the low priority given to the provision of such services and the importance of using two different models for the assessment of efficiency in credit cooperatives, given the unlinked behavior between the two activities evaluated.

As cooperativas de crédito são instituições financeiras que têm como finalidade principal a prestação de serviços bancários e de intermediação financeira voltando-se para a geração de benefícios ao cooperado, através de benefícios econômicos encontrados sob a forma cooperativada. Considerando o objetivo destas organizações, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a eficiência das mesmas considerando duas vertentes: 1) a atividade de intermediação financeira; e 2) a atividade de prestação de serviços bancários, a partir de variáveis contábeis. A técnica utilizada para a avaliação da eficiência foi a Análise Envoltória de Dados e foram analisados os determinantes da eficiência por meio de regressões do tipo Tobit. A amostra é composta por 315 cooperativas singulares listadas na base de dados do Banco Central do Brasil e foram utilizados os dados dos balancetes anuais e semestrais (soma dos semestres para as contas de resultado de cada ano) apresentados para período de 2007 a 2014. Os resultados indicaram baixa eficiência das cooperativas na prestação de serviços bancários, com 73% da amostra apresentando ineficiência ao longo de todos os anos do período em análise. Na atividade de intermediação financeira 20 cooperativas foram eficientes ao longo do período completo, com as demais apresentando graus de ineficiência abaixo de 16% em todos os anos. Quanto aos determinantes da eficiência, verificou-se como principais fatores na atividade de intermediação financeira a Imobilização, a Insolvência, o Descasamento Passivo e as Despesas Administrativas, enquanto na atividade de prestação de serviços os principais determinantes foram a Captação por Floating e as Despesas Administrativas. Os resultados da eficiência na intermediação financeira indicaram baixos graus de ineficiência, enquanto os altos graus de ineficiência na prestação de serviços bancários alertaram para a pouca importância dada ao fornecimentos destes serviços e para a importância de se utilizar dois modelos distintos para a avaliação da eficiência em cooperativas de crédito, dado o comportamento desvinculado entre as duas atividades avaliadas. / Credit unions are financial institutions whose main purpose is the provision of banking and financial intermediation turning to the generation of benefits to the cooperative through economic benefits found in the cooperative form. Considering the purpose of these organizations, this study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of these organizations considering two aspects: 1) the financial intermediation activity and 2) the activity of banking services. For this aim it was used accounting variables. The technique used for the assessment of efficiency was the Data Envelopment Analysis and the determinants of efficiency were analyzed using Tobit regressions. The sample is composed of 315 individual cooperatives listed in the Central Bank\'s database of Brazil and it was used the data of the annual and semi-annual balance sheets (sum of semesters for the result accounts of each year) presented for the period 2007 to 2014. The results indicated low efficiency of cooperatives in providing banking services, with 73% of the sample showing inefficiency over each year of the period. In the financial intermediation activity 20 cooperatives were effective over the entire period, and the other cooperatives presented degrees of inefficiency below 16% in every year of the period. As the determinants of efficiency, it was as key determinants in financial intermediation activity: the immobilization, the insolvency, the mismatch liabilities and the administrative expenses, while in activity of providing services the main determinants were the capture by floating and the administrative expenses. The results of efficiency in financial intermediation were considered satisfactory, but the high degree of inefficiency in the provision of banking services warned of the low priority given to the provision of such services and the importance of using two different models for the assessment of efficiency in credit cooperatives, given the unlinked behavior between the two activities evaluated.

本論文著眼於「無法在任意時點，利用不同經濟個體進行避險」的總體衝擊， 以「經濟個體的終生消費流量平滑化」為目標貫穿全文，探討金融中介活動所扮演的角色。全文包含兩部分。 第一部分，假設經濟體系的風險性資產總量固定且產出每期波動，是總體衝擊的來源。本文認為金融中介在累積利潤的同時，也建立了為經濟個體提供總體衝擊緩衝機制的能力；中介的利潤空間、獨占力量及契約內容共同影響總體風險分攤的運作。而金融中介與直接金融交易二者的風險分攤功能彼此互補，並非相互競爭。此外，政府應適當規範金融中介的市場結構，避免金融中介擁有過大或不足的獨占力量，進而引導中介提供福利水準較高的金融契約。 第二部分，進一步考慮將資源投入安全性與風險性生產技術的投資決策。本文認為在「經濟個體面臨個別流動性風險、且缺乏流動性的長期生產技術屬於風險性投資」的情況下，跨世代金融中介可以利用股權形式的金融契約，吸引每期新世代經濟個體參與，使當期既存中年世代參與者的風險配置效率藉由新存款的挹注而獲得改善、減緩產出波動與個人流動性需求不確定對經濟個體終生消費配置的衝擊。新世代經濟個體參與跨代中介機制不僅可與中年世代共享經濟繁榮的好處，提升事前期望效用；並且亦延續中介既有的經營策略，繼續從事跨世代金融中介業務。

[pt] Nesta pesquisa documenta-se um novo canal de contágio internacional. Estuda-se o mercado de dívida soberana de Londres no período pré-1914, no qual, dada a ausência de agências internacionais de monitoramento e altos custos de coleta de informação, a intermediação financeira representou um papel importante na transmissão de informações aos investidores. A partir da análise de dois eventos de crise financeira - o Funding Loan brasileiro em 1898 e o Funding loan grego em 1893 - mostra-se que os preços de títulos públicos de países sem ligações econômicas com os países em que as crises se originaram, mas que mantinham relacionamento com os mesmos intermediários financeiros, sofreram uma significante redução relativa logo após a ciência dos investidores sobre as crises. Este resultado sugere que os investidores extraíram informação sobre a qualidade do crédito dos países com base na existência de relações credorintermediário financeiro. Este spillover é, em essência, informativo e não derivado de fundamentos econômicos em comum ou regras de realinhamento de portfólio. / [en] In this research I document a novel type of international financial contagion, whose driving force is shared financial intermediary. I study the London peripheral sovereign debt market the pre-1914 period, in which, given the absence of international monitoring agencies and substantial agency costs, financial intermediation played a major informational role to investors. Analyzing two events of financial distress - the Brazilian Funding Loan of 1898 and the Greek Funding Loan of 1893 - I find that the bond prices of countries with no meaningful commercial relations with the distressed countries, but which shared the same financial intermediary, suffered a reduction relative to the rest of the market just after the market learned about the crises, evidencing that investor were extracting information about the soundness of a debtor based on the financial intermediate which vouched the issued. This spillover is informational in essence, and arises as the flip-side of the relational lending coin: the same reason which explains why relational finance (in this case, underwriting) helps alleviate informational and incentive problems also produce contagion.

Cette thèse approfondit les distorsions et frictions créant la mauvaise allocation du capital dans les pays émergents, c’est à dire une accumulation de capital hétérogène entre secteurs privé et public, une épargne excessive (des ménages et des entreprises), et le ralentissement de l’investissement dans certains secteurs. Le premier chapitre montre, à travers un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général comprenant différents types d’entreprises, que dans l’économie Chinoise, l’allocation de l’épargne des ménages vers les entreprises publiques (SOEs) par le système bancaire a une portée à la fois domestique et internationale. Tout d’abord, elle permet d’expliquer en grande partie la configuration des flux de capitaux en Chine : malgré la forte croissance de sa productivité globale des facteurs, la Chine observe une forte accumulation de réserves de change tandis que l’entrée d’ Investissements Directs Etrangers (IDE) est importante. En outre, en canalisant l’épargne des ménages vers les SOEs, cette allocation du capital explique également, dans ce modèle, la chute de la consommation (qui est un problème actuel majeur de la transition Chinoise). Des frictions supplémentaires sont introduites dans le modèle, comme la privatisation, l’expropriation du capital, l’aléa moral et les contrôles de capitaux, jouant également un rôle significatif dans l’apparition des déséquilibres de l’économie Chinoise. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre sur la distorsion ayant joué un rôle clé dans la mauvaise allocation du capital de l’économie Chinoise, le biais de crédit en faveur des SOEs, et étend son analyse aux autres pays émergents en se focalisant sur les entrées d’IDE. L’étude est empirique avec des approches globale et sectorielle, s’appuyant sur différentes méthodologies appliquées à deux échantillons de pays émergents. L’augmentation de la distribution de crédit aux SOEs, au détriment des entreprises privées, ralentit l’augmentation des entrées d’IDE, spécifiquement dans les secteurs manufacturiers. En effet, ces derniers ont une dépendance aux financements externes élevée et la part d’entreprises privées est plus importante que dans les secteurs tertiaires. Afin de corriger les déséquilibres de l’économie Chinoise analysés dans le cadre théorique du premier chapitre, le troisième chapitre propose un système fiscal constitué de taxes hétérogènes entre les différents types d’entreprises en Chine (SOEs, firmes privées domestiques et étrangères), ainsi que de taxes sur les revenus des ménages et sur les remboursements de crédits. Les réformes visent la diminution du surinvestissement de la plupart des entreprises, une plus forte consommation, et la maximisation du bien-être. Certaines réformes imposent des taxes plus élevées dans les entreprises publiques, permettant notamment une réallocation de la force de travail vers les entreprises privées domestiques et étrangères. De plus, l’ajustement des coûts des facteurs de production (travail et capital) entre les secteurs privé et public, et entre les entreprises domestiques et étrangères, est parfois nécessaire pendant les réformes appliquées dans ce modèle. Ces réformes pour la hausse de la consommation et la baisse de l’investissement apportent aux ménages des bénéfices en terme de bien-être, et le rééquilibrage de la demande intérieure ne requiert pas nécessairement d’ajustement de la position financière extérieure. Enfin, la thèse se termine par une extension du modèle précédent, avec des rigidités nominales et des taxes sur la consommation de biens étrangers et domestiques appliquées pendant les réformes ciblant une hausse de la consommation. / This thesis deepens the distortions and frictions creating the misallocation of capital in emerging economies, that is, an heterogeneous capital accumulation between private and public sectors, excessive savings rates (both household and corporate), and the slowdown of investment in certain sectors.The first chapter shows, through a dynamic general equilibrium model comprising various types of firms, that in the Chinese economy, the allocation of household savings to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) by the banking system has domestic and international consequences.First, this allocation explains to a large extent the configuration of capital flows in China: despite its high total factor productivity growth, China observes an accumulation of foreign reserves while inward Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) are massive. Moreover, by channeling household savings toward SOEs, this allocation of capital also explains, in the model, the drop in consumption (which is a current major issue of the Chinese transition). Additional frictions are introduced in the model, such as privatization, capital expropriation, moral hazard and capital controls, which have a significant effect on the emergence of the Chinese economy’s imbalances.The second chapter focuses on the key distortion at the origin of the capital misallocation in the Chinese economy, the credit bias in favor of SOEs, and extends the study to the other emerging economies by analyzing the effect on inward FDI. The work is empirical, with global and sectoral approaches, relying on different methodologies applied to two samples of emerging economies. The increase in credit distribution to SOEs, to the detriment of private firms, slows the increase in inward FDI, specifically in manufacturing sectors. Indeed, the latter have a high external financial dependence and the share of private firms is larger than in tertiary sectors.So as to correct the imbalances that are analyzed in the theoretical framework of the first chapter, the third chapter proposes a fiscal system that is constituted of heterogeneous taxes between the different types of firms in China (SOEs, private domestic and foreign firms), and of taxes on household incomes and loan repayments. These reforms aim at decreasing the overinvestment of most firms, enhancing consumption, and maximizing welfare. Certain reforms include a higher taxation of state-owned firms, which leads to a reallocation of the labor force toward private domestic and foreign firms. Moreover, the adjustment of production factor costs (labor and capital) between private an public sectors, and between domestic and foreign firms, is necessary for certain reforms applied in this model. These reforms that increase consumption and reduce the investment rate bring welfare benefits to households, and the readjustment of the external financial position is not necessary to the domestic rebalancing of the economy. Finally, the thesis ends with an extension of the previous model, which includes nominal rigidities and heterogeneous consumption taxes across home and foreign goods during the reforms that increase the consumption ratio.