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Die vorliegende Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit der Fragestellung, ob Fiskalpolitik die Gesamtnachfrage erhöhen kann, wenn eine Reihe von Haushalten und Unternehmen Finanzierungsbeschränkungen unterliegt. Das erste Essay liefert Evidenz zur Größe von Fiskalmultiplikatoren aus der Eurozone und den USA. Das Essay kommt zu dem Schluss, dass es in der Literatur hinreichend Hinweise gibt, dass expansive Fiskalpolitik, insbesondere in Form einer Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben oder in Form gezielter Transfers an liquiditätsbeschränkte Haushalte, die Wirtschaftstätigkeit in einer tiefen Rezession stark stimulieren kann. Das zweite Essay untersucht die Auswirkungen der Fiskalpolitik auf den privaten Konsum in Abhängigkeit vom Stadium des Konjunkturzyklus sowie dem Zustand der öffentlichen Finanzen. Die Untersuchung wird für ein jährliches Panel bestehend aus 16 OECD Ländern für den Zeitraum von 1970-2011 durchgeführt. Die Studie zeigt, dass Liquiditätsbeschränkungen bei den Haushalten die Wirksamkeit der Fiskalpolitik in den betrachteten Regimes verändern. Das dritte Essay geht der Frage nach der Größe des Staatsausgabenmultiplikators in einem DSGE-Modell mit Finanzintermediation nach. Als Hauptergebnis ist herauszustellen, dass der kumulierte Multiplikators einer vorübergehenden Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben in Regimen, in denen sich Banken Finanzierungsbeschränkungen gegenübersehen, größer als eins ist. Im Gegensatz dazu ist der Multiplikator kleiner als eins, wenn die Finanzierungsbeschränkungen gelockert sind. Das vierte Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Interaktion von Finanzierungsbeschränkungen und Arbeitsmarktimperfektionen. In der Modellökonomie wird ein positiver Produktivitätsschock durch endogene Fluktuationen an den Finanzmärkten verstärkt. Das Essay weist nach, dass, wenn Löhne über Nash-Verhandlungen gesetzt werden, ein Produktivitätsschock die Volatilität der Löhne substantiell erhöht. / This dissertation asks whether fiscal policy can be effective in boosting aggregate demand when borrowing constraints bind tightly across a wide range of households and firms. The work consists of four essays. The first essay surveys evidence on fiscal multipliers from the Euro area and the United States. From this essay it can be concluded that there is ample evidence in the literature that expansionary fiscal policy, especially in the form of an increase in government purchases or in targeted transfers to liquidity-constrained households, may strongly stimulate economic activity in times of a deep recession. The second essay examines the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption conditional on the phase of the business cycle and the state of the public finances in a yearly panel of 16 OECD countries. The essay demonstrates that binding liquidity constraints on households can alter the efficacy of the policy changes in the four regimes---defined by the conditioning states. The third essay examines the size of the government purchases multiplier in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial intermediation. The main result is that the size of the cumulative multipliers of a temporary rise in government purchases is higher than one in regimes when financing constraints on banks bind tightly. In contrast, in times when financing constraints are loose the multipliers are smaller than one. The fourth essay studies the interaction between financing constraints and labor market imperfections and the role of this interaction in the labor market dynamics. In the model economy, a positive productivity shock is amplified through endogenous fluctuations in the financial market. The essay shows that if wages are set via Nash bargaining, the productivity shock increases substantially the volatility of wages.

Diese Dissertation analysiert reale Wechselkursdynamiken und die Rolle von Fiskalpolitik in einer Währungsunion, die sich aus zwei Regionen zusammensetzt. Drei Forschungsfragen werden adressiert: Welche politischen Regime führen in Abwesenheit von Handel zu determinierten Gleichgewichten? Welche Rolle spielt Arbeitsmobilität über Produktionssektoren hinweg innerhalb einer Volkswirtschaft für die Dynamik des realen Wechselkurses? Und sollte nationale Fiskalpolitik auf diese Änderungen des realen Wechselkurses, d.h. auf Inflationsdifferenziale, reagieren, um den inländischen Wohlstand zu erhöhen? Das erste Essay stellt fest, dass bei autarken Mitgliedsländern eine Geldpolitik nach Taylor-Prinzip nicht ausreicht, um ein Gleichgewicht zu determinieren, wenn sie nicht mit einer "aktiven" Fiskalpolitik gekoppelt ist. Das Modell zeigt, dass fiskalische Schocks aus der Volkswirtschaft mit einer aktiven Fiskalpolitik die Inlandsinflation beeinflussen, sich aber auch auf die Volkswirtschaft auswirken, deren fiskalische Haltung passiv ist. Das zweite Essay zeigt, dass die Annahme von perfekter Arbeitsmobilität über Produktionssektoren hinweg die Fähigkeit des Modells erheblich beeinträchtigt, ausgiebige Dynamiken des realen Wechselkurses nach sektorspezifischen Schocks zu generieren. In einer empirischen Anwendung zerlege ich die Treiber der spanischen realen Wechselkursvariabilität und zeige, dass die Schätzung der Arbeitsmobilität die Modellanpassung an die Daten erheblich verbessert. Der dritte Aufsatz erwägt reale Wechselkursschwankungen als Zielvariable für nationale Fiskalpolitiken in einer Währungsunion. Eine Wohlfahrtsanalyse, die Konsumäquivalente berechnet, quantifiziert die Vorteile von Steuerregeln, die auf das inländische Inflationsdifferenzial reagieren. Sie findet großen Spielraum für wohlfahrtsfördernde, fiskalische Interventionen im Rahmen von budgetneutralen Regeln für Konsum- und Lohnertragssteuern. / This dissertation analyses real exchange rate dynamics and the role of fiscal policy within the setting of a monetary union consisting of two regions. It seeks to address three research questions: What are the policy regimes that yield determinate equilibria in the absence of trade? What is the role of labour mobility across production sectors within an economy in real exchange rate dynamics? And should a national fiscal authority respond to these changes in the real exchange rate, i.e. the domestic inflation differential, to improve domestic welfare? The first essay finds that with autarkic member countries, a monetary authority following the Taylor principle is insufficient to render an equilibrium determinate if it is not coupled with exactly one `active' fiscal policy. The model shows that fiscal shocks originating in the economy with an active fiscal stance affect domestic inflation but also spill over into the economy whose fiscal policy stance is passive. The second essay shows that assuming perfect labour mobility across production sectors significantly hampers the model's ability to generate rich real exchange rate dynamics following sector-specific shocks. In an empirical application, I decompose the drivers of Spanish real exchange rate variability and show that estimating the degree of labour mobility considerably improves the model's fit to the data. The third essay considers real exchange rate variability as a fiscal target for national fiscal authorities in a monetary union. A welfare analysis that calculates consumption equivalents quantifies the benefits of fiscal rules that are responsive to the domestic inflation differential. It finds a large scope for welfare-enhancing fiscal intervention in the set of budget-neutral rules which rely on consumption and labour income taxes.

在次級房貸風暴之後，各國赤字大幅增加。如希臘與愛爾蘭，其主權債務違約風險皆大幅升高。面對這樣的困境，政府該如何實施財政政策，以防止主權債務危機的發生?本篇文章在DSGE模型之下，以Uribe(2006)的設定為基礎架構，額外增加了產出方程式以使國家產出能由模型內生決定。並加入了政府支出與產出之間的關係式，以討論在面對正的景氣衝擊與負的景氣衝擊時，政府使用正向景氣循環政策和負向景氣循環政策對於政府倒債率的影響。最後發現當政府使用負向景氣循環政策和較弱的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有反向的關係。而當政府使用較強的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有正向的關係。從此結果，我們推論在後金融海嘯時期，希臘與愛爾蘭等國家，應使用較強的順景氣循環政策以降低其主權債務危機的發生機率。 / After the subprime crisis, many government deficits rose sharply, especially Greece and Ireland. Their default rate rose greatly than before. Under this difficult situation, what kind of fiscal policy should the government enforces to prevent it from bankruptcy? We follow the model in Uribe (2006) as our framework but adding the production function and the government expenditure function to analyze the effects of different fiscal policies on the government default rate. The results tell us that when the government uses countercyclical fiscal policy and weak procyclical fiscal policy, the change of the default rate is opposite to the technical shock. On the contrary, when the government uses strong procyclical fiscal policy, the default rate is positive relation with the technical shock. This implies that governments, such as Greece and Ireland, should use strong procyclical fiscal policy to reduce their sovereign risk under the recession.

This thesis contains four essays, which studies the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and monetary policy quantitatively. The first essay investigates whether Swedish postwar business cycles have been generated by domestic or foreign shocks and finds that they are about equally important. In the second essay, the effects of government budget deficits on interest rates in Sweden are studied in a small open economy framework. The empirical results, which have high power due to very large swings in deficits and interest rates, provide support that larger deficits produce higher interest rates and thus give support against the ricardian view. The third essay seeks to identify optimal social insurance and redistribution levels in Sweden and the U.S. with respect to temporary and permanent idiosyncratic productivity risks. The results indicate that Sweden should reduce the social security level while the U.S. should approximately maintain the current level. In the last essay, the small sample properties of a well-known statistical test for the Lucas critique - the super exogeneity test - is studied in a general equilibrium environment. The results indicate that the super exogeneity test do not have sufficient power in small samples. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

<p>Can a country function without a legislative framework able to inform decisionmaking processes taken at different spheres of government? To what extent would actions conducted at various&nbsp / spheres of government be efficiently coordinated and informed by appropriate channels of constitutional provisions and legislative amendments to consolidate financial and intergovernmental&nbsp / fiscal relations policy-making tools for the realization of an efficient local developmental state? Answers to the above mentioned two questions refer to normative fiscal policy principles and&nbsp / prescriptive instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer design, whose orientation suggests better ways of framing sound and coherent programs and interventions that strengthen&nbsp / cooperative synergy and transfer knowledge of experience gained in empirical investigations and various South African environments of higher academic learning. Growing evidence&nbsp / acknowledges South Africa as one of the young democratic countries that has been going through a period of transition over the past three years as it changes its system of public finance from&nbsp / a structure suited to the old apartheid system to one consistent with the new South African Constitutional dispensation. While the former system was highly centralized, the newconstitution makes a clear commitment to municipal governments as important providers of government services, with greater tax and spending powers. Even as local autonomy has been substantially increased,&nbsp / there remains uncertainty as to the most appropriate design of a system of intergovernmental fiscal grants to metropolitan areas and townships. This study analyses this situation and further&nbsp / develops a generic design for intergovernmental transfers and its suitability to the realities of South African municipalities on the ground within the framework of Cooperative Government. This&nbsp / study concludes that fiscal&nbsp / management, as a cross-cutting discipline, is a&nbsp / powerful instrument for government&rsquo / s revenue sources at the national, provincial and local government levels.&nbsp / Financial management should be regarded as a co-coordinating mechanism managing government&rsquo / s expenditure and catalyzing sound financial relationship for an efficient management in the&nbsp / country, thus allowing government to budget effectively for the delivery of goods and services in order to attain the constitutional mandate of a developmental state.</p>

University of Macau / Faculty of Business Administration / Department of Finance and Business Economics

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

La ricerca sugli effetti negativi del debito sulla crescita economica si è concentrata principalmente sui paesi a reddito medio (PRM) e paesi con accesso ai mercati finanziari, un gruppo PRM con accesso illimitato ai mercati internazionali dei capitali. La letteratura sugli effetti della volatilità macroeconomica sulla crescita, che si e' concentrata sui PRM, è stata sviluppata nel 1990. Un numero limitato di studi ha tentato di analizzare il legame tra debito e crescita in paesi a basso reddito. Questa raccolta di ricerche tenta di colmare questa lacuna, esaminando l'applicabilità del quadro concettuale che collega volatilita', debito e crescita ai paesi a basso reddito. In particolare, le ricerche si concentrano sul ruolo della politica fiscale in paesi a basso reddito, la sua pertinenza per raggiungere e mantenere la sostenibilità del debito ed evitare crisi con conseguenze negative protratte sulla crescita economica. I risultati indicano che le politiche fiscali nei paesi a basso reddito non hanno necessariamente un ruolo chiave nel garantire il rispetto del vincolo di bilancio intertemporale di governo e nel mantenere la sostenibilità del debito. Questo risultato è in netto contrasto con l'attuale ricerca economica sulla sostenibilità fiscale nei PRM e porta a diverse implicazioni per la condotta della politica economica in paesi a basso reddito. / Research on the negative effect of debt on economic growth has mainly focused on middle income countries (MICs) and market access countries (MACs), the latter a group of MICs with unconstrained access to international capital markets. Literature on the effects of macroeconomic volatility on growth focusing on MICs was developed in the 1990’s. Few studies have attempted to analyze the nexus between debt and growth in low income countries (LICs). This collection of papers attempts to fill this gap, by examining the applicability of the conceptual framework linking volatility, debt and growth to LICs. Specifically, the papers focus on the role of fiscal policy in LICs, its relevance for achieving and maintaining debt sustainability deterring economic crisis and excessive growth slumps. Results indicate that LICs fiscal policies do not necessarily play a key role in ensuring respect of the government intertemporal budget constraint and debt sustainability. This result is in stark contrast with existing economic research on fiscal sustainability in MICs leading to different implications for policy conducts in LICs.