"The Strengths and Limitations of Input-Output Analysis in Evaluating Fiscal Policy" by Bc. Lenka Liskova Abstract: The thesis addresses the recent debates on suitable macroeconomic policy and calls for an alternative evaluation and forecasting method of economic impact, by assessing the applicability of Leontief's input- output model. We concentrate on providing an insight into the entire process of input-output analysis, which yields computation of simple input-output multipliers - output, gross value added and income multi- pliers. Thanks to the ability to capture linkages in the economy, com- puted multipliers are used as a tool to evaluate the effects of vehicle scrappage schemes and ICT infrastructure investment subsidies applied within a sample of diverse developed countries - Australia, Germany, Japan, UK and USA. We also aim to provide a sufficient explanation of the input-output model and a computation manual based on the example of the Leontief open model and calculation of simple multipli- ers. In our research, we numerically evaluate the effects of fiscal stim- ulus measures in the automobile industry and ICT sector and provide their comparison among 5 countries with different industry structures. Most importantly, the thesis provides a suggestion for policy makers to consider applying input-output...

Diploma thesis deals with problem whether fiscal policy has an impact on development of currency exchange rate. The first aim of the thesis is to describe some theoretical models which consider possibilities of relationship between fiscal policy and currency exchange rate and to give a notice where can be differences. The thesis introduces a function of fiscal policy, a creation of currency exchange rate and describes an environment of exchange market. Currency exchange rate is stable on its market defined value in the long term. I suppose also that interventions of leaders of fiscal policy can not influence currency exchange rate positively. On the other hand, there could be a negative impact on currency exchange rate by leaders of fiscal policy. The second aim of the thesis is to analyze an impact of government debt on development of currency exchange rate, mainly are analyzed the Czech republic, Great Britain and some other selected countries of the European union. In the thesis are provided macroeconomic data of mentioned countries, mainly government debt to gross domestic product, budget deficit to gross domestic product, development of currency exchange rate and some information about macroeconomic situation of countries. Final part of the thesis provides an analysis of an impact of debt on currency exchange rate (correlation analysis, graphical comparing).

La globalisation est probablement la caractéristique principale de l'économie mondiale du 21e siècle. Elle se traduit notamment par l'intégration par les canaux commerciaux, financiers et les marchés de matières premières. Si un tel contexte affecte de manière très significative tous les types d'économies, il convient de souligner que les petites économies ouvertes dépendantes des exportations de matières premières, et ouvertes aux marchés financiers globaux, sont en général les plus exposées. L'économie chilienne possède toutes ces caractéristiques. C’est dans ce contexte que cette thèse explore l'efficacité de la politique budgétaire chilienne et les effets des prix des matières premières et des chocs financiers internationaux sur le PIB chilien et d'autres variables macro-économiques importantes. A cette fin, on utilise une approche empirique basée sur des modèles vectoriels autorégressifs. / The economic globalization is probably the main feature of the 21st century world economy, with economic integration and interdependence of national economies across the world particularly common in commodity and financial markets. Such a context greatly affect all types of economies though those small, dependent on commodity exports, and open to global financial markets are usually the most exposed. Having in mind this scenario, in this Ph.D. dissertation we explore the effectiveness of the Chilean fiscal policy and the effects of commodity prices and foreign financial shocks, on the Chilean GDP and other macroeconomic fundamentals using an empirical approach based on alternative vector autoregressive models.To understand the effectiveness of the country’s fiscal policy aiming at guarantying macroeconomic stability, in the Chapter 1 of this Ph.D. dissertation we study the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on the Chilean macroeconomic fundamentals and the size of fiscal multipliers. Chapter 2 examines how shocks to commodity prices affect the Chilean economic output, fiscal accounts and private consumption, based on correlations analysis and vector autoregression models. In the Chapter 3 of this Ph.D. dissertation we study the effect of foreign financial shocks on the Chilean real economy.

Esta dissertação analisa a composição e as variações das receitas e despesas da União no período da crise dos anos 1960 (1960-1968), utilizando como fonte primária os Balanços Gerais da União, publicados pelo Ministério da Fazenda. O objetivo principal é compreender a transformação ocorrida nas contas fiscais do país a partir do golpe civil-militar de 1964. Os governos Jânio Quadros e João Goulart tentaram aumentar a arrecadação de tributos, a fim de satisfazer as necessidades de caixa do Estado e prover os investimentos necessários para a industrialização, mas esbarraram no intenso conflito distributivo que marcou a época e não conseguiram aprovar no Congresso Nacional a reforma tributária que pretendiam. O regime militar, sufocadas as resistências dos trabalhadores, teve liberdade para implementar uma ampla reforma fiscal, dotando o Estado de recursos para ampliar a intervenção estatal no domínio econômico e reduzir os crônicos déficits públicos, que ajudaram a provocar a alta de preços nos anos anteriores. A análise dos dados dos Balanços Gerais da União mostra que a reforma tributária concentrou a arrecadação fiscal nas mãos do governo federal, em detrimento de estados e municípios, e aumentou a regressividade da carga de impostos. O crescimento da receita possibilitou aumentar os investimentos, os gastos de custeio e os gastos sociais. Porém, o acréscimo dos gastos sociais foi apropriado por grupos privilegiados, por meio de aumentos na aposentadoria de servidores públicos e do crescimento das verbas para a educação de nível superior. É possível que a política fiscal do regime militar tenha tido impacto significativo nas condições que permitiram a eclosão do milagre econômico de 1968-1973, e provavelmente contribuiu decisivamente para o agravamento da desigualdade social no Brasil. / This thesis analyses the composition and changes in revenues and expenses of Brazils federal government during the crisis of the 1960s (1960-1968), using as a primary source the Balanços Gerais da União, published by the Ministry of Finance. The main objective of the thesis is to understand the transformation that occurred in the fiscal accounts after the civil-military coup of 1964. Jânio Quadros and João Goulart administrations attempted to increase the collection of taxes in order to keep the high economic and industrial growth rates, but faced intense distributive conflict and disputes. The military regime destroyed the militant trade unions, managed to make a wide tax reform, providing the state funds to expand its intervention in the economy and reduce the public deficit that helped to fuel high inflation at the time. From a detailed analysis of the federal accounts, we conclude that tax reform implemented in 1964-1966 concentrated the revenues in the federal government at the expense of states and municipalities, and increased the social unfairness of the tax burden. Revenue growth enabled increased investment, spending and funding social expenditures. However, the expansion in social expenditures was appropriated by privileged groups, through higher current spending, generous retirement pensions of civil and military servants and more funding for higher education. We suggest that fiscal policy of the military regime had a significant impact on the conditions that allowed the outbreak of the economic miracle of 1968-1973, and probably to the worsening social inequality in Brazil.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como a política fiscal brasileira respondeu às variações do ciclo econômico no período de 1997 a 2016. A partir do uso de dados trimestrais, busca-se entender se a política fiscal brasileira apresentou comportamento pró-cíclico, isto é, se atuou no sentido de reforçar os ciclos econômicos, se apresentou comportamento anti-cíclico, no qual as medidas de política fiscal são implementadas a fim de possibilitar um movimento fiscal na direção contrária aos ciclos, ou se foi tipicamente acíclica, sem possuir qualquer relação com o momento no qual a economia se encontrava. O estudo se dará analisando o superávit primário e enfatizando como certas variáveis macroeconômicas reagem a variações do hiato do produto. A análise se dará tanto do lado da despesa, com ênfase no gasto e também no consumo do governo, como também no que tange à receita. A análise pelo lado da receita é a grande contribuição deste trabalho para a literatura existente uma vez que os trabalhos já existentes para o caso brasileiro focam apenas no lado do gasto. Ainda no que diz respeito à receita, como a arrecadação total possui um comportamento tipicamente endógeno já amplamente discutido pela literatura existente, o foco se dará usando alíquotas efetivas médias de arrecadação tributária calculadas em estudos recentes. Os resultados indicam um comportamento pró-cíclico da política fiscal brasileira nos últimos vinte anos, tanto do lado da receita como da despesa, bem como uma inércia fiscal que ajuda a explicar o agravamento do problema da dívida pública e de solvência fiscal que o Estado brasileiro vem enfrentando recentemente. / The aim of this work is to analyze how the Brazilian fiscal policy responded to the variations of the business cycle within the period from 1997 to 2016. By using quarterly data, we seek to understand if the Brazilian fiscal policy presented a procyclical behavior, that is, if it acted so as to reinforce the business cycles, if it presented countercyclical behavior, in which the fiscal policy measures are implemented in order to allow a fiscal movement in the opposite direction of the cycles, or if it was typically acyclical bearing no relation to the moment in which the economy was subject. This study analyzes the primary surplus and emphasizes how certain macroeconomic variables react to the variations of the output gap. The analysis is conducted from the point of view of the expenditure, with emphasis on public spending and also in the government consumption, as well as the revenue. The analysis from the point of view of the revenue is the great contribution of this work to the existing literature as the already existing studies for the Brazilian case focus only on the point of view of the expenditure. Still regarding the revenue, as the total revenue has a typically endogenous behavior already largely discussed by the existing literature, the focus is on the average effective tax rates of the tax revenue calculated in recent studies. The results indicate a procyclical behavior of the Brazilian fiscal policy over the past twenty years, from both points of view: the revenue and also the expenditure, as well as a fiscal inertia which helps to explain the aggravation of the problem of the public debt and the fiscal solvency that the Brazilian State has been facing recently.

Diese Dissertation untersucht, wie sich die Ausgestaltung eines Steuersystems – bzw. dessen Änderungen – auf die Dynamik von makroökonomischen Variablen auswirken kann. Die Analyse wird mit Hilfe von allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen durchgeführt, die Keynesianische Eigenschaften haben und durch die Berücksichtigung von stochastischen Elementen dynamisch sind. Die Arbeit umfasst drei Essays, deren Hauptfokus auf der Eurozone liegt und die politikrelevanten Fragestellungen gewidmet sind. Die Arbeit deckt klassische Themen wie fiskalische Multiplikatoren und „Liability-Side Equivalence“ ab, aber sie beschäftigt sich auch mit dem aktuellen Thema der fiskalischen Abwertung. Das erste Essay untersucht die Auswirkungen von Änderungen in der Mehrwertsteuer auf die gesamt– wirtschaftliche Leistung einer Volkswirtschaft. Die Neuerung gegenüber bisherigen modellbasierten Publikationen über diese Fragestellung besteht in einer realistischen Modellierung des „tax pass-through“, also der Weitergabe von Steueränderung an Konsumenten durch Preisanpassungen. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass eine empirisch plausible pass-through-Dynamik die kurzfristigen Mehrwertsteuer Multiplikatoren drastisch reduziert gegenüber denen in herkömmlichen Modellen. Die gewonnene Einsicht, dass Standard-Modelle der institutionellen und akademischen Forschung die kurzfristigen Multiplikatoren dramatisch überschätzen, kann potentiell zu einer Verbesserung von modellbasierten Politikempfehlungen beitragen. Das zweite Essay befasst sich mit fiskalischen Abwertungen. Diese Politik zielt auf eine Abwertung des realen Wechselkurses – und damit auf eine Verbesserung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit – ab, ohne dabei die Anpassung eines nominalen Wechselkurses zu erfordern. Sie sieht eine Senkung der Sozialabgaben vor, die durch eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer finanziert wird. Ein höherer Mehrwertsteuersatz macht importierte Güter teuer, während geminderte Sozialabgaben (und damit geminderte marginale Produktionskosten und Preise) inländische Güter im Ausland billiger machen. In dem Papier betrachten wir eine gemeinsame fiskalische Abwertung aller Peripherieländer der Eurozone. Die Neuerung gegenüber anderen Studien besteht darin, dass Lohnrigiditäten berücksichtigt werden – welche sich für die Effektivität der Reform als zentral erweisen –, und dass wir zwischen zwei Sorten von Abwertungen unterscheiden: Eine, in der Sozialabgaben der Arbeitgeber gesenkt werden, und eine, in der Sozialabgaben der Arbeitnehmer verringert werden. In unserem Modell ist die erstgenannte Form der Abwertung deutlich effektiver. Das dritte Essay untersucht „Liability-Side Equivalence“ im Zusammenhang von Sozialabgaben. Dieses Prinzip besagt, dass die gesetzlich festgelegte Aufteilung der Abgaben zwischen Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern langfristig keinerlei Konsequenzen für die reale Allokation hat. Ich zeige hingegen, dass die Aufteilung der Abgaben Auswirkungen auf makroökonomische Fluktuationen, auf die Effizienz der Allokation, und damit auf die langfristige Produktivität hat. Die einzige nicht in der Literatur übliche Annahme, die für dieses Ergebnis benötigt wird, ist, dass das Sozialsystem ein ausgeglichenes Budget hat. / This thesis analyzes how the configuration of a country’s tax system – or a change to that system – can affect dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates in New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. It contains three essays, each having a primary focus on the Euro Area and each addressing a policy-relevant question. The thesis covers classic topics like fiscal multipliers and Liability-Side Equivalence as well as the more recent subject of Fiscal Devaluations. The first essay analyzes the impact of changes in the value-added tax (VAT) on output. The innovation relative to previous theoretical contributions on this subject is that my model accounts for empirically observed tax pass-through dynamics. I find that the introduction of empirically plausible VAT pass-through dramatically lowers short-run multipliers relative to those obtained if tax pass-through is not rigorously modeled. By showing that workhorse models used in academic and institutional research overestimate the short-run impact of VAT changes, the work might help to improve model-based guidance on the design of discretionary fiscal policy packages. The second essay addresses Fiscal Devaluations, a policy that is aimed at deteriorating the real exchange rate – and thereby improving a country’s competitiveness – absent an adjustable nominal exchange rate. It prescribes a reduction in social security contributions financed by an increase in the VAT. The higher VAT increases the price for imported goods, while the reduction in social security contributions (which lowers marginal production costs and with it producer prices) makes domestic goods cheaper in the importing countries. In the co-authored paper, we analyze the impact of a Fiscal Devaluation jointly undertaken by Europe’s periphery countries. The novelty is that our model features nominal wage rigidity – which is shown to be crucial for the policy’s effectiveness – and that we compare two types of Fiscal Devaluations, one that reduces firms' social security contributions and one that lowers workers' contributions. We find that the former type is considerably more effective than the latter type. The third essay investigates Liability-Side Equivalence in the context of social security contributions. This principle implies that the statutory split of contributions between firms and workers does not matter for the real allocation in the long run. I contradict this notion by showing that it matters for macroeconomic fluctuations, for the efficiency of the allocation, and thereby for long-run productivity in my model. The only non-standard assumption required to generate this result is that the social security system runs a balanced budget.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences. / Centre for Macau Studies

Désavantage par sa position géographique qui en fait un pays enclave, le Burkina Faso a très tôt fait de développer des initiatives pour fixer les investissements locaux et attirer les investissements étrangers. au plan fiscal, ces initiatives ont essentiellement pris la forme de mesures incitatives fiscales (exonérations temporaires de droits de douanes et d’impôts). cependant, le bilan reste mitige au regard des résultats atteints. aussi, est-il temps d’envisager une autre approche consistant a faire en sorte que la fiscalité ne soit pas un frein au développement de l’investissement prive. cela passe nécessairement par une amélioration de la gouvernance fiscale et des aspects techniques du système fiscal / Disadvantaged by its geographical position of opened up country, Burkina Faso had early develop initiatives for fixing local investments and bringing foreign investments. on fiscal hand, these initiatives had basically taken the form of tax incentives (temporary exemptions form customs duties and taxes). however, the balance is mixed considering the reached resultats. consequently, it is time to consider another approach in ensuring that taxation could not be an obstacle for the private investmen development. so, it is necessary to improve the fiscal governance and the technical aspects of the tax system

Tout au long de l'histoire du Pakistan depuis son indépendance, la domination budgétaire est restée une norme, à la fois dans les régimes démocratiques et militaires. Cette augmentation de la persistance du déficit budgétaire a dilué la performance du secteur réel et affecté négativement la balance des paiements, ce qui provoque l'inflation dans l'économie. L'expérience du Pakistan montre que d'importants déficits budgétaires ont conduit le gouvernement à des emprunts excessifs de la banque d'État du Pakistan (SBP) et par conséquent à une vaste impression de l'argent. Dans une telle situation, la banque centrale se retrouve avec peu d'espace pour exterminer les chiffres croissants d'inflation et d'assurer une croissance saine. Sur la base de toutes ces preuves et l'échec de la politique monétaire pour maintenir les prix dans des limites acceptables, l'économie du Pakistan est supposée victime de la domination budgétaire - également connu sous le régime de non-ricardienne. Cependant, il n'y a guère de preuves où une étude approfondie est menée pour prouver la domination budgétaire au Pakistan, puis définir une politique pour y remédier. Dans ce contexte, notre thèse porte sur la domination budgétaire et le niveau d'inflation élevé en conséquence, qui est resté élevé pendant presque une décennie. Nous allons mener quatre études, allant de l'identification de la domination budgétaire dans l'économie du Pakistan pour évaluer l'impact de la politique budgétaire sur la croissance et l'inflation. La première étude est liée à la littérature sur les théories de dominance fiscale, où la politique budgétaire agit activement et la politique monétaire suit passivement. Le deuxième modèle, la théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix (FTPL), affirme que la dette publique et la politique budgétaire déterminent principalement le niveau des prix dans une économie. Le troisième modèle examine la fiscalisation optimale et le revenu du seigneuriage. Le concept est basé sur Sidrauski (1967) modèle. La notion du modèle est que le niveau général des prix plus élevés déforme la demande de monnaie et augmente ainsi le bien-être. Lorsque les revenus du gouvernement sont en deçà de ses dépenses, le gouvernement finance son déficit budgétaire grâce à la génération des revenus de seigneuriages. Dans notre quatrième étude, nous mesurons la réponse de l'inflation et de la croissance à l'évolution de la politique budgétaire tout en tenant compte des comportements des détenteurs de dépôts et l'industrie bancaire. / The central bank uses policy rates for reducing inflation. However, policy rates become less affective in comparison to bond’s rates when convertibility between bonds of different maturities decreases. This makes monetary policy ineffective if the government borrows heavily from the domestic market and an active fiscal policy, aiming to increase the economic activity, stimulates inflationary pressure. Throughout the history of Pakistan since its independence, fiscal dominance remained a norm, both in the democratic and military regimes. During the last three decades, the economy of Pakistan is faced with serious fiscal deficit tribulations. Increasing public debt stock and dilapidated tax-to-GDP ratio are grave hurdles in reducing the widening fiscal deficit. This persistence increase in the fiscal deficit has diluted the real sector performance and negatively affected the balance of payments position, causing inflation in the economy. Further, it makes government dependent on huge borrowing from internal and external sources and pushed it to increased debt servicing intricacy. Despite recurring efforts on part of government, no evident success is witnessed to reduce the ever increasing fiscal deficit. Large fiscal deficits have led the government of Pakistan to excessive borrowing from central bank of the country (SBP) and consequently to extensive printing of money.Though, SBP imposed an upper ceiling on government borrowing to reduce its public borrowing from central bank. However, the government never respected these ceilings and compromised the independence of central bank. This dependence on local money market for financing budget deficit increased money base, caused crowding out of private sector, resulted in high printing of money and reduced the monetary policy space to exterminate high inflation. Such a situation restricts the monetary policy to offset the distortions existing in the economy and to achieve its desired goals. Such scenario advocates a dire need of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to strike an appropriate balance between growth and inflation. In this context, our thesis focuses on fiscal dominance and the consequent high inflation level, which remained lofty for almost a decade. We conduct four studies, ranging from the identification of fiscal dominance in the economy of Pakistan to gauging the impact of fiscal policy on growth and inflation.The first study is related to literature on fiscal dominance theories, where fiscal policy acts actively and monetary policy follows passively. To establish that the decades long high inflation in Pakistan is solely because of fiscal dominance, a second study is conducted to analyze the interest rate pass through mechanism in Pakistan. In the third step, it uses corporate governance proxies, capital structure proxies and ownership structure proxies to investigate their links with bank’s performance. In our fourth study, we gauge the response of inflation and growth to changes in fiscal policy while taking into account deposit holders behavior and banking industry.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcelo Balloti Monteiro.pdf: 467444 bytes, checksum: ce6e5589ae2f8b2550f67f4225c0b444 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-06 / The dissertation examines the absence of a supranational tax authority within the European Monetary Union and the difficulties of coordinating the bloc´s economic policy during the financial crisis started in 2007. Left to each Member State implementation of fiscal policy, but left to monetary policy and exchange rate borne by a single central bank aimed at their status is to maintain price stability, the implementation of economic policy within the bloc is shows conflicting since changes in one variable can interfere with many other influences that together in conducting economic nations. The international financial crisis of 2007 imposed an intense performance of the European Central Bank to try to mitigate the effects of the financial storm could cause the bloc's countries. Given its intensity, the governments of the countries had to act in a massive way to ensure survival of the economy of the country and save the financial and banking system of the Member States. Given this performance, many countries have reached critical levels of sustainability of their debt. Coupled with the structural problems that had some savings and gained greater importance when they started to use the single currency, the peripheral countries have been hardest hit by the crisis and are sources of uncertainty about the solvency of their economies / A dissertação analisa a ausência de uma autoridade fiscal supranacional dentro da União Monetária Européia e as dificuldades de coordenação da política econômica do bloco durante a crise financeira iniciada em 2007. Deixada a cargo de cada Estado-membro a execução da política fiscal, mas deixada a política monetária e cambial a cargo de um banco central único cujo objetivo pelo seu estatuto é a manutenção da estabilidade dos preços, a execução da política econômica dentro do bloco se mostra conflitante uma vez que modificações em uma variável podem interferir nas diversas outras que influem em conjunto na condução econômica das nações. A crise financeira internacional de 2007 impôs uma intensa atuação do Banco Central Europeu para tentar mitigar os efeitos que a tormenta financeira pudesse causar aos países do bloco. Dada sua intensidade, os governos dos países tiveram que atuar de maneira maciça para garantir a sobrevivência da economia dos países e salvar o sistema bancário-financeiro dos Estados-membros. Diante desta atuação, muitos países atingiram níveis críticos de sustentabilidade das suas dívidas. Aliada a problemas estruturais que algumas economias apresentavam e que ganharam maior relevância quando passaram a utilizar a moeda única, os países periféricos foram mais fortemente atingidos pela crise e são fontes de incertezas quanto a solvência de suas economias