The diploma thesis focuses on description and analysis of the global crisis that began in 2007. It also evaluates measures taken by the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank in response to this crisis. Thesis contains evaluation of used measure. It includes dealing with the crisis by two selected banks in the Czech Republic.

The diploma thesis focuses on description and analysis of the global crisis that began in 2007. It also evaluates measures taken by the European Central Bank and the Czech National Bank in response to this crisis. Thesis contains evaluation of used measure. It includes dealing with the crisis by two selected banks in the Czech Republic.

[pt] Este estudo propõe e testa um regime de metas de inflação alternativoque nós chamamos de Regra de Taylor Fiscal (FTR). Nesse regime, o governo, mantém a taxa de juros nominal constante e usa a alíquota de imposto sobre o consumo como instrumento para estabilizar a inflação e o hiato do produto. Nós estimamos um modelo padrão de ciclo de negócios a partir de dados dos EUA do período da Grande Moderação (1985-2007) e comparamos os resultados observados aos resultados de uma simulação contrafactual em que aplicamos os choques estimados ao mesmo modelo substituindo a regra de Taylor padrão pela FTR. Nós verificamos que, comparada a uma regra de Taylor padrão, a FTR pode ser capaz de prover uma performance similar em termos de estabilização econômica e portanto constitui uma opção teoricamente viável de política de estabilização econômica. / [en] This study proposes and tests an alternative inflation targeting regime which we call the fiscal Taylor rule (FTR). In this regime, the government keeps the nominal interest rate constant and uses the consumption tax rate as an instrument to stabilize inflation and the output gap. We estimate a standard business cycle model on US data from the Great Moderation period (1985-2007) and compare the observed outcomes to those of a counterfactual simulation where we apply the estimated shocks to the same business cycle model replacing the standard Taylor rule by the FTR. We find that compared to the standard Taylor rule, the FTR may be capable of providing similar performance in terms of economic stabilization and thus constitutes a theoretically viable option of policy framework.

[pt] Risco fiscal afeta a curva de juros no contexto de economias emergentes? Como medir adequadamente esse tipo de risco? Explorando o caso do Brasil, estimamos uma medida alternativa de risco fiscal com base em notícias, utilizando processamento de linguagem de texto. Encontramos que aumento em risco fiscal gera aumento em taxas de juros longas, no prêmio a termo e depreciação na taxa de câmbio. Os efeitos são robustos a uma série de especificações alternativas do índice de risco fiscal, sugerindo que se trata de um fenômeno relevante no cenário brasileiro. / [en] Does fiscal policy risk affect the yield curve in an emerging economy? How can we adequately measure this kind of uncertainty? Exploiting the case of Brazil, we estimate a novel, news-based measure of fiscal policy risk using natural language processing. We show that increases in fiscal policy risk are associated to increases in the levels of long maturities in the yield curve, in the term spread and to a depreciation of the exchange rate. The effects are robust to a series of alternative specifications of the text-based index, suggesting that fiscal risk is a relevant phenomenon in the Brazilian setting.

Diese Arbeit umfasst drei Kapitel zur Debatte über makroökonomische Politik unter Unsicherheit und Ungleichheit. Das erste Kapitel zeigt auf, dass ein geringes Maß an Unsicherheit mit einer effektiveren Ausgabenpolitik einhergeht, und dass fiskalpolitische Ausgaben grundsätzlich ein wirksames Instrument zur Stabilisierung von Konjunkturzyklen sind. Das zweite Kapitel liefert Belege dafür, dass der regelbasierte Politikansatz der EZB den geldpolitischen Stress - d.h. identifizierte geldpolitische Unsicherheit - im Euroraum verringert hat. Dies hat dazu beigetragen, dass sich der Euro zu einer globalen Leitwährung entwickelt hat. Ein Verzicht auf den Euro würde für jedes der Euroländer wahrscheinlich zu einer Situation führen, in der die heimische Wirtschaft mit den nachteiligen Auswirkungen anderer weltweit dominierender Währungen konfrontiert wäre. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht, wie sich Geldpolitik auf die Verteilung zwischen Einkommen aus Arbeit und Kapital auswirkt, und wie Heterogenität zwischen Unternehmen die geldpolitische Transmission beeinflussen kann. Insgesamt unterstreichen die Ergebnisse die entscheidende Rolle von Unsicherheit im Transmissionsmechanismus von Fiskalpolitik, sie leisten einen Beitrag zur öffentlichen Debatte zur Euroskepsis und zeigen, dass Ungleichheit zwischen Mitgliedsstaaten eine Folge von Unternehmensheterogenität sein kann. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit erscheint eine tiefere Integration der Eurozone - d.h. ein europäisches Finanzministerium mit dem Recht eigene Schulden aufzunehmen, eine Vereinheitlichung des europäischen Arbeitsrechts sowie die Vervollständigung der Banken und Kapitalmarktunion – als ratsam. / This thesis includes three chapters that inform the debate about macroeconomic policy under uncertainty and inequality. The first chapter shows how low levels of uncertainty are associated with more effective fiscal policy. The second chapter provides evidence for the rule-based policy approach of the ECB reducing monetary policy stress – i.e., identified monetary policy uncertainty – in the euro area. This has contributed to the euro becoming a globally dominant currency. Giving up the euro would, for any country, likely result in a situation where the domestic economy would face the adverse effects of globally dominating currencies. The third chapter investigates how monetary policy affects the redistribution of income between employees and owners of companies, and how heterogeneity across firms affects monetary policy transmission at country level. Overall, the results highlight the important role of uncertainty in shaping the fiscal policy transmission mechanism, they contribute to the public debate of euro-skepticism, and they show that between-country inequality can be a result of firm-heterogeneity. Based on the findings of this thesis, a deeper integration of the euro area – i.e. a European fiscal union, joint debt issuance, unified labor rights as well as a completed capital markets and banking union - seem advisable.

Unfunded public pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB) liabilities impose major threats to local fiscal sustainability, which increases governments' default risk and crowds out funding for essential local services. To close the funding gaps, localities may apply a wide range of fiscal instruments, including increasing taxes, fees, and user charges, issuing debt and bonds, obtaining grants and/or decreasing expenditures. This research compares the US local fiscal choice behavior in the context of the fiscal federalism framework. The goal is to identify the ideal mix of constitutional fiscal rules to preserve local fiscal sustainability. Not only should the rules aim to minimize local adverse fiscal behavior pre-crisis, which may include excessive spending, large accumulations of unfunded liabilities, and over-reliance on external grants, but also allow strong local fiscal adaptive capacity post-crisis. The findings help localities identify any effective and prudent fiscal options available to close their pension funding gaps and contribute to the overall sub-national fiscal institutional reforms. Theoretically, this research introduces a novel analytical framework pertaining to local fiscal sustainability by separating pre-crisis and post-crisis institutional analysis and by consolidating two historically viewed as two competing paradigms, public choice and public finance. I argue that the two approaches are complementary rather than contradictory since public choice theory sets up an institutional prerequisite for normative outcomes to be realized and prevents the occurrence of extreme circumstances. The ideal mix of formal fiscal rules, thus, should induce the balanced budget rule that applies to all budget items, stringent spending and debt limits, and institutionalized local tax authority and stable tax structure, but not tax limits. Tax limits are less effective in constraining government than spending and debt limits due to fiscal gimmicks. Moreover, stringent tax limits could significantly limit local governments' ability to bounce back on their own. This research also found that cities do apply different fiscal strategies to reduce exogenous shocks, given their unique fiscal institutions in place. Furthermore, cities with fewer institutional constraints exhibit a faster speed of adjustment. However, certain institutional variables, such as public union size and tax authority, might not have the same fiscal implications as predicted by the theory. Cities often manage to cut their short-term spending regardless of the size of their public unions. A broad range of tax authority does not imply greater local revenue-generating capacity. Own source revenue autonomy might be a better indicator of local fiscal adaptive capacity. / Doctor of Philosophy / Unfunded public pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB) liabilities impose major threats to local fiscal sustainability, which increases governments’ default risk and crowds out funding for essential local services. To close the funding gaps, localities may apply a wide range of fiscal instruments, including increasing taxes, fees, and user charges, issuing debt and bonds, obtaining grants and/or decreasing expenditures. This research compares the US local fiscal choice behavior in the context of the fiscal federalism framework. The goal is to identify the ideal mix of constitutional fiscal rules to preserve local fiscal sustainability. Not only should the rules aim to minimize local adverse fiscal behavior pre-crisis, which may include excessive spending, large accumulations of unfunded liabilities, and over-reliance on external grants, but also allow strong local fiscal adaptive capacity post-crisis. The findings help localities identify any effective and prudent fiscal options available to close their pension funding gaps and contribute to the overall sub-national fiscal institutional reforms. Theoretically, this research introduces a novel analytical framework pertaining to local fiscal sustainability by separating pre-crisis and post-crisis institutional analysis and by consolidating two historically viewed as two competing paradigms, public choice and public finance. I argue that the two approaches are complementary rather than contradictory since public choice theory sets up an institutional prerequisite for normative outcomes to be realized and prevents the occurrence of extreme circumstances. The ideal mix of formal fiscal rules, thus, should induce the balanced budget rule that applies to all budget items, stringent spending and debt limits, and institutionalized local tax authority and stable tax structure, but not tax limits. Tax limits are less effective in constraining government than spending and debt limits due to fiscal gimmicks. Moreover, stringent tax limits could significantly limit local governments’ ability to bounce back on their own. This research also found that cities do apply different fiscal strategies to reduce exogenous shocks, given their unique fiscal institutions in place. Furthermore, cities with fewer institutional constraints exhibit a faster speed of adjustment. However, certain institutional variables, such as public union size and tax authority, might not have the same fiscal implications as predicted by the theory. Cities often manage to cut their short-term spending regardless of the size of their public unions. A broad range of tax authority does not imply greater local revenue-generating capacity. Own source revenue autonomy might be a better indicator of local fiscal adaptive capacity.

This doctoral thesis addresses in a sequence of five essays the question how fiscal policy and economic output are interrelated in emerging Europe and how this relationship is shaped by the respective politico-economic environment and the individual-level support for economic reforms. Following main findings can be highlighted: (1) Countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) respond to a fiscal expansion in the euro area with fiscal easing at home, while the GDP response is mixed across countries.(2)Automatic fiscal stabilizers are comparatively small and discretionary fiscal policy has been largely pro-cyclical in CESEE. (3) The public spending and revenue structure is more "growth-friendly" in CESEEthan in the EU-15. (4) In transition economies with more democratic institutions and a better quality of governance, individuals with high market-relevant skills show a significantly larger support of the privatization status quo than individuals with low market skills. (5) The society in Russia - triggered by a lack of social capital - chooses to demand more state regulationand tolerate corruption to reduce negative externalities imposed by private business.(author's abstract)

Even though major advances in economic theory and modelling have in some cases furthered our understanding of how the economy works, the system as a whole has become more complex. If policymakers had perfect knowledge about the actual state of the economy, the various transmission mechanisms as well as the true underlying model, monetary intervention would be greatly simplified. In reality, however, the monetary authorities have to contend with considerable uncertainty in relation to the above-mentioned factors. This said, uncertainty has mostly been neglected in both the theoretical and empirical literature focusing on monetary policy analysis. Nonetheless, findings from a review of theoretical literature that does exist on this topic suggest that optimal central banks act more conservatively when faced with uncertainty. Similarly, empirical findings from the literature also favour conservatism. However, there is some evidence to suggest that this is not always the case. These results suggest that central banks do not always act optimally when faced with uncertainty. The limited number of industrial country cases examined prevents any generalised view from emerging. If anything, the literature findings suggest that central bank behaviour differs across countries. This thesis aims to contribute to the empirical literature by studying the effects of uncertainty on monetary policy in the developing country case of South Africa. In simplest terms, the thesis seeks to establish whether or not the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) responded optimally to uncertainty as suggested by theoretical models thereof. To this end, the thesis employs a theoretical model which resembles a structural rule-based approach. The optimal interest rate rule was derived given a set of structural equations relating to demand, the Phillips curve and the real exchange rate. To incorporate uncertainty, it is assumed that the coefficients are dependent on the variances of the exogenous variables, namely inflation, the output gap and the exchange rate. The uncertainty adjusted model allows us to investigate whether monetary policy is more aggressive or passive when uncertainty about the relevant exogenous variable increases. Inflation, output gap and exchange rate uncertainty estimates were derived through GARCH-model specifications related to the structural equations as defined in the theoretical model. The investigation considered both indirect and direct uncertainty effects with a sample period stretching from 1990 to 2011. The findings reported in this thesis provide strong evidence in support of the notion that uncertainty plays a significant role within the South African monetary policy landscape and contributes towards explaining the SARB’s actions. Furthermore, the results suggest that the SARB did in fact act optimally in responding more conservatively to target variable fluctuations on average. Also, the findings could potentially strengthen the case for inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime, as the results indicate a marked decline in the effects of uncertainty under inflation targeting than before. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

長久以來，經濟成長一直是各國努力追求的目標，而經濟成長模型則提供解釋經濟成 長過程的理論基礎。此外各國經濟成長率的差異亦是成長模型所關心的問題。以往， 新古典的成長理論解釋長期的經濟成長率是外生技術進步所造成，財政政策扮演無關 緊要的角色，僅僅影響過渡動態調整。直到近幾年，Romer(1986b)提出內生性成長模 型後，長期的經濟成長率決定於偏好與技術的參數。而Barro(1990) 利用此內生性成長模型的概念，導出政府財政政策是內生性經濟成長的主要因素。 本文擬介紹數種包含政府部門在內的內生性成長模型，首先假設在封閉經濟體系下， 單一資本累積的成長模型。透過以政府支出影響生產函數以及Cobb-Douglas型態生長 函數的假設，我們可以討論單調遞增，遞減以及固定成長率的經濟成長模型，因此本 文模型延伸了Romer)1986b),Barro(1190),Xie(1991),Rebelo(1991) 等人的內生性成 長模型。從這些模型中可看出政府支出對每人消費，資本及產出成長率的影響。由於 政府支出與租稅具有外部性，使得競爭經濟下所求出的投資報酬與經濟成長率低於社 會計劃經濟下所求得的結果。 / The conventional neoclassical growth models attribute the long-run steady-state growth to the exogenous technological progress, and government’s fiscal pol-icy can only affect the dynamic transitional path toward the steady state. In recent years, Romer (1986b)first proposed a growth model in which the long-runrate of growth is endogenized. Following Romer, Barro (1990) examined that the fiscal policy may be one of the major factors influencing the country’s long-runrate of growth. Building on Barro’s model, this thesis presents three models of endogenous growth. Each recognizes that government spending can influence the aggregate production function. The aggregate production function exhibits an overall de-creasing return to scale, constant return to scale, and increasing return to scale. These models show that the fiscal policy has effects on the growth paths of pre capita consumption, private capital stock, and output in a competitive eqilib-rium. Furthemore, the competitive rate of return of capital may be lower than that under the central planning economy, because the external effects of govern-ment spending are excluded from the individual household’s perspective.

This thesis considers how fiscal and monetary policy should be conducted in resourcerich economies. It consists of three papers addressing: whether governments should spend, save or invest volatile oil income; the assets they should save in; and how monetary policy should respond. The first, “Eight principles for managing resource wealth”, shows that capital-scarce countries should save relatively less against oil price volatility, and invest more in domestic capital. They also should prepare for volatility in advance, and treat savings as a source of income rather than a temporary buffer. To show this the paper develops a framework that nests a variety of existing results, which are presented in eight principles. The second, “The Elephant in the Ground: Oil extraction and asset allocation in sovereign wealth funds”, shows that governments should use sovereign wealth funds to offset oil price risk, extract oil faster if its price is pro-cyclical, and use precautionary savings to manage any residual volatility. To do this it combines three strands of literature for the first time: on continuous-time portfolio theory, oil extraction and precautionary savings. The third, “Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries”, addresses the anticipation effects around an oil discovery. It shows that the terms of trade will need to appreciate twice: once when oil is discovered and consumers anticipate future revenues; and again when the government begins spending the revenues. Oil wealth will give the monetary authority an incentive to appreciate the terms of trade, in addition to stabilising domestic inflation and the output gap. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a standard monetary rule that also responds to expected changes in the natural level of output.